NFL Free Picks: Week 7

I started tough last week (4 losses to bound my morning up) but finished strong and hope to keep that mo going heading into Week 7’s games. Here’s how I see them getting figured out…

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): This one is tight, hence the pick em, but I have to take the Bills here. San Diego and Buffalo are different places to play and the Chargers will find that out promptly. It’s an early game, which means the Chargers fly to Buffalo to play at 10 am their time, which usually doesn’t bode well. The Bills aren’t a dominate team by any means, but they play sound football and have an offense that doesn’t produce many mistakes. I like Buffalo in October, like them even better at home, and like them even better early at home against a team from Cali. SO I like this play here a little bit. Still, the Chargers are showing life and they don’t have the time to mess around and lose more games. I still don’t see it from LT yet, and thus I’ll lean toward the Bills.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): The play here is Minnesota, but I’m going against my initial feeling and taking the Bears. I think Chicago can pass on Minnesota and I’m pretty sure that if the Vikes had trouble running on the Lions and Saints, they’ll be bottled up against the Bears. I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope. They are sending Ryan Fitzsomething to the wolves here, and while Pittsburgh has struggled a bit with injuries, it is expected that Fast Willie Parker could return for this game, and that boost alone should get the Steelers and extra touchdown. That being said they are already a touchdown better than the Bengals. Put those two together and a 28-13 game is what I expect.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): The Ravens just out-physical opponents, and that’s how they win. The new coaching staff in Miami has neutralized that problem by becoming one of the more physical teams in football, on both sides of the ball. Chad Pennington is worth 3 or 4 points over Joe Flacco, and therefor I’m taking the Dolphins. I think they are a pretty solid bet here.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): I’m against the Saints again, and maybe it will crush me, but until they start doing better work in the red zone I have to go against them on the road against a more complete team. Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: Lane Kiffin’s gone, so the Raiders are going to have to prove to me that they can beat somebody without him. Didn’t work so well last week, as the Raiders looked worse than ever before. I don’t think that game is a fluke, I think the Raiders sans Kiffin are more doomed than ever. Take the Jets by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: Do the Cowboys lose a little bit without one of the best quarterbacks in football? You bet. Do they lose something wihtout Pacman Jones? Yep. Do they still have a considerable amount of talent that completely trumps anything the Rams have in St. Louis? Most definitely. I think the Cowboys take less chances, make fewer mistakes, and play better football in their first game without Romo and Jones. They are still loaded on the defensive side of the ball and one more offensive weapon for the Cowboys shouldn’t hurt them. I like Dallas by a touchdown on the road in the face of adversity.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Colts are the play here, even without a rushing attack to lean on. Green Bay is solid, but against a bend but don’t break defense I think they’ll have trouble. They don’t have enough of a rushing attack to make the Colts pay, and if Rodgers is throwing 40 times I see some mistakes popping up. I think this game will be quite the offensive showcase, and in such a game, I like to error on the side of one Peyton Manning.

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): The Texans are good. They’ve lost a lot of games already. The Lions are bad and they will continue to lose games. I like Drew Stanton but don’t think he’ll be enough to cover this spread. Steve Slaton will be running, Matt Schaub will be throwing, and I think Kevin Walter (of all white receivers) will have a very good game at home this Sunday. I think the Texans win by 2-3 touchdowns in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): This is the NFL and anything can happen, just like any other sport, but the Hawks are brutal right now, playing with absolutely no confidence and headed into Tampa Bay where the Bucs play stellar defense that should press Charlie Brown Frye into more than a few mistakes. The Hawks are a lost team and Tampa isn’t a heavy offensive point scorer, but they should still cover this monstrous spread. Defensively the Bucs are too consistent for Seattle to put up much more than 14 points.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown. I think Washington moves the ball well, but if you can take away the run a bit they have trouble scoring. The Browns gain a little confidence back after last week’s big win, and while I do think the Skins are a better team, I think this game comes down to a field goal. Even a touchdown still gets me a win, and I am really liking that extra half a point here.

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: Strength versus weakness here. In a couple ways. The Broncos love to throw early and often, and deep. The Patriots are struggling most in their secondary. The Patriots can’t seem to run the ball and everyone puts pressure on them. The Broncos can’t stop the run and can’t put pressure on anyone – I guess that’s a weakness versus a weakness, but that also favors the Broncos. Without much of a rushing threat, the Patriots won’t be able to trick the Broncos into committing to the run. That means the secondary will be more clogged. The Patriots look bad, and while the Broncos have struggled the last few weeks, I see this as a very nice match-up for them.

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