NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 3

It wasn’t beautiful, that’s for sure, I lost some close ones and killed it on most of the beatdowns – I say most, because lord knows I didn’t expect the Patriots to get whacked by the Dolphins. Anyway, I was 8-7 headed into Monday Night Football – and since I felt like sharing this is the review.

Kansas City ChiefsAtlanta Falcons (-4): (WINNER) Turner went for over 100 yards with 3 touchdowns to his name. The kid is for real. If you still don’t believe you must be drunk. The Chiefs couldn’t stay up with the Falcons offensive attack, even thought Larry Johnson put up some nice numbers of his own. Falcons at 2-1… Nice.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5)Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “I think Oakland is better than many give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t quite the 10.5 point powerhouse at home. Take the points and the Raiders here. Expect JaMarcus Russell to have a two touchdown game, and the Raiders to stay close in Buffalo.” Well, the Raiders didn’t run it that well, but JaMarcus did have his two touchdown game, one rushing – one passing, and the Raiders were a last second field goal away from ruining my survivor pool after just 3 weeks. But, the Bills pulled it out, and while my survivor streak lives on, I also get a nice win here.

Houston TexansTennessee Titans (-5): (WINNER) “I don’t think Houston’s run defense can slow down the Titans rushing attack enough to cover in Tennessee.” Honestly, Houston’s run defense was decent. They allowed two rushing touchdowns, but holding the Titans to 150 yards on 36 carries isn’t that bad. But Matt Schaub didn’t have his A game going. He threw 3 interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and the Texans didn’t stand a chance against a very good Titans defense. When will Houston get an offensive line that can protect a quarterback?

Cincinnati BengalsNew York Giants (-13): (LOSS) “Until the Bengals show me that they are more together than a bucket of busted Legos, I’m not even considering taking them at anything less than +17.” Alright, now that the Bengals have showed me something (though they are still 0-3 because of some stone cold heroic throws from Eli Manning) I will start considering them against the spread. The Giants pulled out an overtime victory (thought I was rooting hard against them because of survivor pool purposes) but the Bengals covered easily. This is the Bengals team everyone expected. They might have thrown up a fluke good game against a good team, but I have a feeling they’ll get it together now and be competitive. Still, I lost.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)Washington Redskins: (LOSS) “I understand that the NFC East hasn’t lost a game out of their own conference this season. It’s only been two weeks, but it is definitely the scariest conference in football.” Well, the NFC East still hasn’t lost a game out of their conference so far this season. The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Redskins all did damage against their respective opponents. The Cardinals were just another team in the NFC East warpath. Washington won by a touchdown and gave me another L.

Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots (-12.5): (LOSSSSS!!!!) “This is going to be one of those Patriotic blowouts. Miami is still one of the worst teams in football and despite Tom Brady’s absence, the Patriots are still one of the best.” Hmmmm…. Have I been tricked? Have we been absolutely April fooled? I’d like to think not. In fact, all teams are subject to a bad game. The Patriots just happened to have one of their worst games ever and Ronnie Brown was a man possessed on Sunday (the cat was responsible for 5 touchdowns – dirty). I lost this one, sure, but I have to think this loss gives the Patriots some nice value down next week – unless of course the Jets are much worse than we all thought (we’ll see Monday Night).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) Chicago Bears: (WINNER) “I know the Bears are 2-0, but I still don’t see them as a good team. Maybe that changes this week if they can fend off the Bucs, a solid team all around, but my bet is that doesn’t happen.” A couple things happened in this contest: 1, The Bears did prove to me that they are a solid team – a group I have greatly underrated to this point, their defense is good enough to allow their offense to keep running the ball, and Matt Forte is a beast – they’ll be in almost every game they play. 2, the Bucs couldn’t run the ball, but they were good enough to realize that and take what the Bears gave them. Brian Griese should never have 400+ passing yards, heck, 300 is a stretch – but the Bears wouldn’t let the Bucs run and so Griese just passed – that shows me that they will be a force in the NFC South. They aren’t one dimensional anymore.

Carolina PanthersMinnesota Vikings (-3): (WINNER) “I don’t see Carolina’s rushing attack working too well in Minnesota, and I do think their offensive attack and winning chances depend on that. Gus Frerotte starts this week in Minnesota, so the Panthers will have more to worry about through the air. We’ll see, but I have to believe that the Vikings don’t start the season 0-3. Take the Vikes to get their first win and by just enough to cover at home.” The Vikings won by 10, and most of that W was because the Panthers couldn’t run the ball. It didn’t matter who was toting the rock for the Panthers, they couldn’t do anything against that ferocious defensive line in Minnesota. 1-2 is much better than 0-3, just ask the Browns.

St. Louis Rams (+11) @ Seattle Seahawks: (LOSS) Alright, I’m off the Rams. Right now, this team has to be one of the worst professional football teams I’ve seen in a long time. The Dolphins last season? No way – they were decent. Everyone aside from Tory Holt looks terrible in St. Louis. That Steven Jackson cat that just pulled in all that dough? He skips around in the backfield like a damn jumping jack, never attacking the line with any force whatsoever. Killing me. Bulger? Please. The offensive line – they are probably most of the reason for Bulger and Jackson playing like scared mice. I was DEAD wrong about this one, and I apologize completely.

Detroit Lions (+4)San Francisco 49ers: (LOSS) Boy, if there wasn’t a team from St. Louis I would absolutely hammer the Lions right now. Detroit plays like every opponent is tougher than they are. They can’t stop anyone – just like Mike Ditka said on Sunday morning. Ditka was right, the Lions defense is abysmal… Someone give Matt Millen another year at the helm of this beast!

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-4.5): (LOSS) Absolutely screwed! That’s right, you can see this game a couple ways – either the Denver Broncos should have lost against a last second field goal, or the way I see it. If Denver just runs the ball and the clock goes down, then they kick a field goal to go up 5. But no… Splinter has to get cute with his little Ninja Horsies, and Scheffler fumbles the ball, and now New Orleans has a chance. I should have covered here – that was a load of BS. Not only that but Splinter still gets the win for his Broncos and everyone isn’t killing him all over national TV. Last week he pulls a stunt and gets a win for it, this week his dumb play backfires and he still gets a win. Oh, and I lose! DAMN IT! (Sorry, I’m a little frustrated with this outcome)

Pittsburgh SteelersPhiladelphia Eagles (-3): (WINNER) Let me say that I am stunned the Eagles iced the Steelers like this without Westy for most of the game. The best player on the field goes down early, after just 5 carries for 12 yards, and the Eagles D up tough, sacking Big Ben like it was their job, even knocking the big cat out of the game late. The Eagles didn’t put up a gaggle of yards or touchdowns, but they did what they needed to do and got a big win against a tough AFC team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6)Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “Bob Sanders’ injury wins me over to the dogs in this one. I think the Jaguars will run all over the Colts on Sunday. This is a pretty big game for both teams, and Jacksonville has looked anything but solid thus far, but my instinct is to trust my gut, and my gut tells me that Jacksonville has been playing well below their talent level, and that will stop now. At 0-2 there’s not much room to mess around, and I don’t imagine they’ll come out throwing all over Indy. Maurice Jones Drew should get 15-20 carries and Fred Taylor will get his touches as well. If that happens, and I believe it will, the Jaguars and Colts will both be sitting at 1-2 after Week 3.” I just quoted everything I said in my picks column because it worked perfectly in this game.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5)Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) (LOSS) (LOSS) I’ll take the hit for this one. Up at half I thought the Browns would come out and shut down the Ravens. I was wrong. I was wrong about a lot in this game. I would like to say this once again, in case everyone is missing the link, this Browns team is EXACTLY like the Saints from last year. Right?

Dallas Cowboys (-3)Green Bay Packers: (WINNER)  The best team in football beat a very good team in Green Bay on Sunday Night. Unless the Cowboys really stumble, they look like one hell of a team to beat.


Five for Friday

Coaching Newbies: I just couldn’t get enough of Jim Zorn’s mismanagement of the game on Thursday night – I almost had to quit watching the damn thing. With four minutes left, Jim is huddling down 9. Interesting. Of all people, he has to know about his dink and dunk west coast offense – hurry up son! I like Jim and despite his shortcomings in Week 1 I think he will become a solid head guy for the Redskins. But doesn’t this show that there’s such thing as a rookie curve for coaches too? Its the first time Jim has ever been a head coach and he’s also calling plays – who does he think he is? Splinter Shannahan? Watch out for those rookie coaches, they’ll kill your fantasy guys too. Chris Cooley needed to get involved in this one – he’s a huge asset for the Redskins – yet he didn’t do anything. Talking about tight ends, do I drop Kevin Boss now that he didn’t catch a ball? Hmmm…

Premature E-drop-ulation: You don’t want to let go of a guy because of one bad week, but in the case of Kevin Boss, a guy that was probably a very late TE pickup for you, you might want to head in the direction of a Dustin Keller or possibly Greg Olsen. Either guy is likely to be available still and it doesn’t look like Boss is going to be as big a part of the Giants offense as Jeremy Shockey was. Plus, you don’t lose that much by dropping him. Contrary to this advice, I wouldn’t drop someone you were high on because of one lousy week. Dropping Eli Manning because he didn’t do much would be ridiculous. So don’t do it if one of your pre-season sleepers poo’s the bed in Week 1. 

Do Hate: People often won’t pick a player because they hate him, or the team he plays for. TO is a prime example. I’ve drafted with Eagle fans that won’t touch the guy. Defenses are the best. Late you can often pick up the Cowboys, Vikings, or Jaguars because so many people either hate them or care less about them. Take advantage of that. There are lesser versions of these guys on waivers right now. Just because nobody likes Brandon Lloyd doesn’t mean he’s useless – same goes for Antonio Bryant. Remember – at one time in their NFL careers, both of these guys were promising fantasy receivers, and it’s not as if they’re too old to get back the magic. Dream big, Hate as much as you want. Just don’t let it effect your fantasy cash winnings. Its true though, nothing is worse than hating your fantasy team and losing at the same time. I don’t suggest you do that either.

Dallas Does Cleveland: I’m not saying much about this except – watch. The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ’07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.  

Don’t do that: While rooting for your favorite team to pull a huge upset, please don’t be the guy that says, “I want them to win this, but it’d be nice if Tony Romo would throw a couple more touchdowns before it’s over.” That’s just not okay. You are a football fan first – remember that. Be loyal and just take the fantasy game as it falls. Rooting for a 56-55 game is just plain hopeless.