Free NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

This is a tough one to get a read on, how weird, right? I mean, it’s only a game that absolutely doesn’t matter at all to the Patriots, but Tom Brady has supposedly asked to play and Bill Belichick has supposedly answered with “You bet, it’s your world, you’re in.” So Tom’s telling everyone and their mother that he’ll be playing this week. Now I don’t know Bill Belichick personally, but this seems like a great time to pull an awesome trick on just about everyone (including my fantasy team) and play Brady for about a quarter before giving way to some guy most of the fans don’t even know. That’s right, name the Pats’ back-up and I’ll give you some Flutie Flakes. Nope, Doug Flutie is on ESPN analyzing college football games, but if you answered Andrew Walter, you’re close – that guy’s the #3… Brian Hoyer is the right answer, and I’m not promising we’ll see him – but I’m telling you, Tom coming out saying he’s going to play seems way too easy to be real.

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And while the Patriots have shown they’ll go for the wins late in the year instead of rolling over for their opponents, this is also a game that holds no significance for New England what-so ever. They know they’ll be playing next week and they know they’ll be playing a home game – this game means nothing.

For the Texans, this game is a chance at the playoffs – it’s not a “win and you’re in” situation, but a win keeps them alive. They have a powerful enough offensive attack to put pressure on the Patriots anyway – in a meaningless game for the Pats, I expect Houston to win by double digits.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (-7.5)

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions: About 60% of the public bet is on Miami, and while they are a better team at home, the Texans have shed their normal “road schmo” title, going 4-3 away from Houston so far this season. And despite the Dolphins ability to run the football with success against just about any opponent, I do happen to think Houston is the better team of the two. Not only can they throw the ball as well as any team in the league, but defensively they bring a lot more heat than many believe.

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This Houston defense has given up 21 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. And while that normal late season swoon basically eliminated the Texans from post-season dreams, they are still playing for their first winning season in, well, in forever. They’ve been 8-8 each of the last two seasons, and while that’s a step in the right direction, a winning year is theirs if they can win out. With that on the line, I definitely expect this one to be a battle.

So it will come down to the little things, or the small details, and the fact that Houston has had just about the worst luck all season long has something to do with my decision. Yes, that kind of stuff evens out folks, and it should do that here. Houston lost their first game by 17 points. Since then, they’ve lost 6 other times. Since then, not a single loss has been decided by more than 8 points. Those one score games have killed them, but I think they get this one. The luck turns!

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins

Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks

Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks: This line has been weird all week, basically unbetable in most books, and I’m not really sure why that is. I know the Texans have an underrated defense, they are missing a rushing attack, but they have one of the better passing attacks in the league despite missing one of their best receiving options, TE, Owen Daniels.

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I know the Rams don’t have a very good rushing attack, but they do have Steven Jackson, though dinged up he be, and he’s good enough to be a threat and get close to 100 yards on the ground. I know that no matter who is healthy and who is injured for the Rams, they are going to have a bad quarterback with smallish wide receivers that rarely get the ball thrown to them where they can make a play. So exactly what the books are waiting for here is beyond me, but at -10, I think the Texans can do the job.

Those are the things, amongst other things as well, that I know.

Houston just needs to put two halves together and this thing will be more lopsided than NASCAR’s turning signals. If they don’t string together two well played halves, I still think 10 is a solid number for them to cover. Houston has been pretty solid on the road (3-3 with wins over Cincinnati and Tennessee) and they have beat up on bad teams (hello Bills -31 to 10, Raiders -29 to 6, and Seahawks -34 to 7). That’s good enough for the girl I go with, I’ll take the Texans.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams

Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans Point Spread Pick

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Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans Point Spread Pick: I see something I like here, sure, but I have this eerie feeling I’m going to regret this one. Maybe it’s the Hawks on the road that scares me, or even the Hawks in general, yes, you might say I have pick-em dreams that end with me getting a million dollars if I can just pick a Hawks game correctly – that’s where I wake up in cold sweats.

No, but on a serious note, I don’t have the best record when it comes to Seattle. I’m not sure what it is, it’s just the way it has been. It doesn’t mean I never get them right, it just means that predicting them is tough for me. I know the Hawks are 1-5 away from Seattle, 4-2 at home – they don’t play a physical brand of football, and that hurts on the road. However, I’m thinking their upswing in health will finally help them and keep them winning football games. If you’ve noticed, they’ve won two straight (against the NFC West, sure, but you have to count them). One more win would be three in a row, and get them one game under .500 for the season. They are close.

The Texans have had a tough time of it lately. They’ve had their normal mid-season tumble, losing 4 straight, all against their own conference. Two of those games were home losses, and they’ve lost 3 straight against the spread as well. Houston isn’t a great home team, just 2-4 this season, and I like the Hawks odds of playing close. Seattle can think pass first, run second, when defending the Texans, and I think that certainty will help them. I’ll go with the Hawks.

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Houston Texans

Arse's Five Favorites: Week 13 NFL Picks

I’ve got 5 more favorites this week, and you’re lucky, because I’m rocking a 8-1-1 record in the two weeks I’ve done this (check the records), and I’m only doing this because I’ve been winning all season long. It’s bound to end sometimes, but will it fail me this week? We shall see… Here’s my Week 12 review and Week 13’s picks.

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Week 12 NFL Picks REVIEW:

(W) – Indy -3 @ Houston: So what, they fell down 17-0 early, and they did what they do and won anyway – that’s why I’ve been making cash off these little horsies.
(W) – Seattle -6 @ St. Louis: The Rams couldn’t take advantage of the sand all over the Seahawks collective offensive game plan. Oh, and Justin Forsett beat the Rams all by himself.
(W) – Minnesota (-10.5) @ home vs. Chicago: The Bears are a joke and the Vikings are one hell of a team – this favorite picking this seems to be too easy.
(W) – Ravens (-2) @ home vs. Pittsburgh: No Ben Roethlisberger helped, but I almost think the Steelers probably still should have won, if they just didn’t play so careful. Oh well, my luck.
(W) – Saints (-1.5) @ home vs. New England: The Saints were the better team and Tom was off his game. It was easy enough.

WEEK 13 NFL Picks:

Philadelphia (-5) @ Atlanta: I have to take the Eagles here, how can I not? They need this win desperately and they have their starting quarterback playing, a solid defense, and their starting running back has been out all year. I think they win by two touchdowns.

Houston Texans (-1) @ Jacksonville: You can get the Texans as 1 point dogs, but my book has them as a 1 point favorite. I think they are the far-superior team, and that’s enough for me.

Cincinnati Bengals (-13) @ home vs. Detroit: The Lions are terrible and the Bengals are going to pray on that mistake-prone offensive attack. Plus, the secondary is so shaky that I know Palmer will take a couple chances.

New England (-3) @ Miami: I have heard the Patriots always struggle in Miami – I dont’ care – the Patriots will win by at least a touchdown.

San Diego (-13) @ Cleveland: The Chargers score a lot of points, through the air is their ticket to success, and they don’t waste too much time pounding the football. That will kill Cleveland as their only chance to stay close is if their opponent slows down the game.

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Pick

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Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Pick: I’ve always been fond of both these teams. I don’t know why, maybe because I was always looking for a team in the South to step it up and take the Colts’ top spot. Stunningly, that was the Titans job last season with Kerry Collins at quarterback. This year, early, I thought both these teams had a chance. Then I watched the Jaguars play a full game, and pretty much crossed them off the list (incompetent coaching being the main reason). Then I watched the Colts for a few weeks and realized nobody was taking their top spot this year. And of course, I watched the Texans quite a few times and saw a Jeckyl and Hyde type deal in single games – they show they can play with anyone, yet they find ways to lose to anyone as well. But that doesn’t mean this one is tough.

I like the Texans, and I don’t even think it’s close. While the Jaguars have the elite runner, I don’t think they have the elite rushing attack. Despite Steve Slaton’s troubles, the Texans still have a solid run-blocking offensive line and a scheme that is much more intelligent than the thing Jacksonville throws out there any given week. And when it comes to passing, as much as I like David Garrard, Matt Schaub is the better player, and Andre Johnson might be the best receiver in the game. Their passing game is better as well. Defensively, I also like the Texans.

But what this game really comes down to is this. The Texans have gained more yardage than 7 of the last 8 teams they’ve faced. The Jaguars, when out-gained, are 1-4 this season. There only win was against Buffalo. The Texans are bound to turn that bad luck around one of these days, and I believe one of these days will be this Sunday in Jacksonville.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Papas Picks: Week 12 NFL Underdogs, Texans, Chiefs, Cardinals

I had a solid little go-around last week, finishing 4-1 with a couple big underdog wins to show for it. I always like to put a small straight-up wager on my dogs, and that worked like a charm last week as the Chiefs and Titans both gave me some nice + money, but I should have won 3, if only the Redskins could have slammed the door shut on the pathetic Cowboys. But finishing isn’t in the cards for that team, I should have known. You know what’s nutso, I pick only dogs, Arse picks only favorites, and Lucky picks whatever he wants, and we all won in Week 11 – then again, I had the best win-percentage. Ha, old people rule! Here’s last week’s review and this week’s top dogs – I’ve got 4 good one’s this week!

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Week 11 Review:

Titans (+4.5) was an outright winner @ Houston.
St. Louis (+10) was a cover-winner against Arizona.
Kansas City (+11.5) just won outright against the might Steelers. Awesome.
Washington (+11) covered easily in a 1 point loss @ Dallas.
Tampa Bay (+11.5) was a sure thing loss against New Orleans, Lucky was right.

Week 12 Free Picks:

Houston Texans (+3.5) @ home vs. Indianapolis Colts: The Texans are better than many give them credit for, and I think Schaub ends up having the much better day through the air. I like Houston to end the Colts winning streak, but like them even more with a little more than a field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been hot, but in their own little way, so have the Chiefs – hot enough to play with a Chargers team that isn’t great defensively in any one area. 14.5 points, I almost always like that. The Chargers aren’t any kind of two touchdown favorite in my old ass opinion.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Tennessee: I like the Titans with Vince, sure, but every team meets their match, and I just happen to think the Cardinals are a terrible match-up for Vince and the Titans. They stop the run really well and pass with precision and big-play ability. Sounds like a dog win to me!

New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: What a Monday Night Football Game – I can’t wait. I just like the Patriots and points in about every single occasion I can muster. Hope that clears it up. Every single situation ever. You bet! I will!

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview: Let me start by saying I think these two teams are way more similar than their records suggest. One is 10-0, the other 5-5, yet I think the Colts are just 3-7 points better than the Texans – but 3 points, and the Peyton Manning factor, that has me on the Colts side once again. I know this Colts team isn’t 10-0 worthy, they’ve needed some help along the way – but they are 10-0, and if I can’t find a better reason than “they should probably lose one of these days, why not this week” then I’m just going to go ahead and keep betting them if the spread isn’t too grand. 3 is never too much….

The Colts/Texans game has been a close affair in 5 of the last 6 meetings – but the Colts have won the last 5. Indy is 6-3-1 ATS this year, and has basically dominated against the spread while traveling – 5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Texans haven’t been great at home, and with even less of a commitment to the run (and the ball in Steve Slaton’s hands less than earlier this year) I don’t think the Texans will take advantage of that leaky Colts run D.

I think this game is going to come right down to it, maybe even the Colts down 3 with a couple minutes left in the game – but even then, I think I’d buck the odds and go with Peyton – the guy has IT.

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Free Football Pick

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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-4) Free Football Pick: This line moved up after I took the Texans, going up to 4.5 despite seeing the public bet go the way of the visiting Titans. Interesting. Maybe the public sees that the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Maybe the public is smitten with the Titans current three game winning streak after starting the season 0-7. Maybe people are seeing that Vince Young is a winner, and the Titans haven’t loss since the former Texas Longhorn got back in the starting line-up. Or maybe they see the Titans’ dominance over the last 9 games, winning 7, covering 5 of the last 7.

But I see the Titans this year, and the Texans are a different team this time around as well. I think Tennessee is somewhere in-between how they started and their last three games, not one or the other. They aren’t a dominant football team, they aren’t a winless squad either. Don’t get it twisted and think that just because they’ve won 3 in a row they are back to the team they were a year ago. Oh no, oh no. They don’t have that defensive power or swagger for that matter.

And the Texans, like I said, they aren’t the .500-ish team they’ve been the last few years, they are a team that played solid football in all but one game this season. On the road against teams like Arizona, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Cincinnati – they may just be 2-2, but they have only one loss by more than a touchdown this season. They have a very good passing attack, a rushing game that can be explosive, and a defense that has played very well over the last 4 weeks.

They may not be the popular pick this week, but the better team at home by just four on Monday Night Football seems like an easy bet to me.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick: As you know, it’s hard to bet against the Colts right now. Peyton Manning is at the top of his game, and his game was pretty impressive before he was at the top. They find ways to win when it’s tough, they cover spreads (5-2 ATS so far this season) and they bring an undefeated record home to Indy to host the 5-3 Houston Texans. But 10 points is too much for me, mainly because good teams shouldn’t get double digits, and Houston is a good team. I know, it sounds as weird to say it out loud as it does to write it, as I’m sure it’s just as odd to read. But it’s true.

The Texans have won 4 of their last 5, three straight, playing good football all season long. Even their losses (for the most part) have been close games. They lost by 7 at Arizona, by 7 against the Jaguars, and their only blowout was Week 1 against a Jets team that came right out and out-physicaled the Texans from the get go. I think Houston is playing the best football they’ve played in their short history, Matt Schaub has been awesome, and despite seeing their star running back get benched last week, they’re always a threat for a big play on the ground. During their current three game winning streak, they’ve beaten a couple pretty good teams in Cincinnati and San Francisco. It will be tough to continue, but they’ve out-passed their opponents in 7 straight games.

Another thing, Houston seems to always play Indy tough. Indy’s won 9 of the last 10, but this game has been decided by a touchdown or less in 4 of the last 5 contests. The Texans might not be getting over the hump, but they’ve been pretty damn close. 10 points for a good team is just good value-betting.