Tag Archives: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick & Preview

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Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) Pick & Preview: In my experience, when a road team is an underdog by less than three points, the oddsmakers are saying that the road team is the better squad. I can’t believe, not one single bit, that Dallas is the better team.

Both teams can be complacent against lesser opponents, and both can forget the run and pass the ball too much, but in no major part of the game are the Cowboys better than the Eagles. Not offensively, not defensively. They might have a better offensive line, they might even run the ball a little better – but the Eagles can put up points quick, they are solid in every aspect of the game, and I think that gets them the win at home against the Cowboys.

Dallas has one good win, at home against Atlanta two weeks ago. They played well and should have beat the Giants, but Mr. Romo went kamikaze style on his squad. They played decent against Denver, but the Broncos looked like the better team throughout. Tampa, Carolina, Seattle, and an overtime win over Kansas City mark the Cowboys other 4 wins. Lucky schedule. Now I think Dallas is solid, heck, right now I see them as a playoff team. They are getting better defensively and offensively I think they are finding their way again.

But the Eagles do so many things well, and Dallas doesn’t have the secondary to stop Donovan and company. They struggle against elite speed at receiver, and I think Maclin and Jackson are probably the fastest starting receiving duo in the league.

Then there’s confidence. The last time Dallas came into Philly, a playoff birth was on the line, last week of the 2008 season, and the Eagles stomped the Boys 44-6. Yeah, 44-6… The Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 against Dallas. Philly is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season. Combined, these two teams are 11-3 O/U on the season. Points are going to be scored. I think Philly’s defense makes the big play and gets the win for the home team.

Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys Free NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) Free Pick: I really want to pick the Seahawks, and at first that’s exactly the directions I was going to go, then I thought about it a little more and though that if Matt Hasselbeck has no time to throw against a physical and athletic defense in Dallas, I don’t see the Hawks making many big plays. Earlier in the year, Dallas was struggling to attack the passer, but it’s hard to imagine that being the case against this make-shift offensive line Seattle has been forced to put together. And now the Cowboys are bringing pressure with ease. Not only that, but Dallas’s offense, a group that had been struggling to find an identity, has seemingly figured it out over the past couple weeks, finding a young receiver named Miles Austin to be the playmaker down the field. With Marion Barber and Felix Jones getting healthier by the day, and Tony Romo seemingly back at his confident place, the Cowboys looks as scary as people expect them to be. The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much. I’ll take Dallas at home.

Papas Picks NFL Week 7: Only Underdogs! Bears, Chiefs, Falcons

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So, I went 2-1 last week, and look to, at the very least, keep that 66.6% rocking hard as the season moves forward. I’m taking dogs here, nothing but dogs from here on out, and going to show you that if you pick right, the dogs can make you money. I have another trio of games this week, expecting three outright wins but I’ll take the points. Here goes!!!

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Chicago Bears (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A lot is being said about Cedric Benson’s 1st game against the Bears since they cut him, blasted his work ethic, and basically told anybody that would listen how Ced was never going to amount to anything despite them spending a Top 5 pick on the guy. So at least one Bengal is going to be motivated come Sunday. But that’s not enough for me, and I think Jay Cutler has one of his “accurate games”, you know, 1 interception or less, carving up the opposing defense (though Cinci has been good this year on that side of the ball). I like the Bears to win on the road, I think their running game finally gets going a little bit, but not enough to make those owners that picked Matt Forte happy. Not that much.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, the Chargers are much, much worse. Seems like enough for me, but wait, I have more. The Chargers defense hasn’t show the ability to stop anyone (even last week, they stopped Denver a bit, but Kyle Orton still came back to slice them up just enough to give the Broncos an easy win). If your defense can’t get off the field, then you can’t consistently cover road games where you are favored by 4.5 points. It could happen, sure, but the good money is on KC, and I’m a good money bettor.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is hardly a true underdog, as a majority of the public likes Atlanta at most sports books, but they are still 4 point dogs, and in Dallas where the Cowboys have a lame-duck coach, their offensive coordinator seems to be slipping, their huge investment “best” receiver is probably still out with ouchy tummy, and their defense hasn’t been able to put pressure on anyone, it’s just hard to like the Cowboys. Tony Romo should turn it around a bit this week, but Dallas can’t lock down on opposing offense’s #1 threats, and thus Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should find wide open spaces in the friendly confines of Cowboys Stadium. If that big ass TV screen doesn’t get in the way, and if they can keep their focus on the game and off the hundreds of cheerleaders acting as cage dancers, I think the Falcons pull away from Dallas late. There it is.

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys Free Pick: The Cowboys have allowed #1 receiving options to run free most of the season, that doesn’t bode well for their chances at beating up on the Falcons. With Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White getting open and picking apart the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think the Cowboys’ ability to stop the run will have much to say about the outcome of this game. Plus, I get the feeling that the Falcons can run the ball on anyone if they really set their minds to it. But Matt Ryan should find open spaces, despite big names in Dallas’s secondary, and a couple great defensive line players, the pressure hasn’t been there this season, and thus opposing quarterbacks have had lots of time to throw the ball. If Matt gets time, his receivers will get open. Thinking that will happen, I like their chances to cover against the Boys.

Week 5 NFL Free Picks

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I had some tough luck last week, and I picked a lot of big underdogs that got pushed around by the actual big dogs. Apparently it’s good bye to the days where double digit dogs just covered and made life tough on all those people that think NFL teams usually kill each other. Maybe. We’ll see. I’m not changing my whole approach based on a couple weeks of tough records, I still only dropped two games last week, and just as easily could have been 8-6 with a little better luck here and there. Week 5 promises to be intriguing, with new trades taking place, top notch surprises meeting top notch expectations, and some teams that are struggling and fighting for their lives way too early in the season. I pick ’em all, follow along and enjoy!

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Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens:I think the Ravens and Bengals are eerily similar as far as team skill is concerned. So 9 points obviously seems like way too much for me. Many are forgetting that the Bengals are one hail-mary away from being 4-0 to start the season. They haven’t dominated their competition, but 3 wins (two against quality opponents like Green Bay and Pittsburgh) give me a lot to like. A lot of people like to say that spreads don’t mean much, that the team that wins covers 80% of the time – and that may be true, but I think this game has the makings of a down-to-the-wire contest, with either team needing a big play to get the win. In that case, I’ll take the team with the 9 points, even if I’d give the Ravens a slight not in chance to win straight up.

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: I hate to do this, because seeing Eric Man-Jina trade away his star offensive receiver only to put together his first win of the season in the process kind of makes me sick to my stomach. But, as the cards begin to stack, I can see too much to like about Cleveland and the points. They proved last week that they can run the ball well against a good defense. That should go a long way to covering the spread against the Bills. Then I see the injuries mounting in Buffalo. Offensively, they are probably fine, but they are already down two offensive linemen since the start of the season. Defensively it seems like every starter in their secondary is injured. Their starting safeties could both miss the game, their #1 pick from last year’s draft is now on IR, and their highly touted linebacker, Paul Posluszny is also out. This team needs to grind out clock, and instead the Bills rock the hurry-up. Until they figure that out, I’ll happily take their opponent and 6 points. I’m not sure how this spread started this high in the first place.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5): I don’t think this bet has great value. This line started out at -6 for the Panthers, but has moved to just -3.5 – on the other hand, most of the bets continue to come in on 0-3 Carolina. However, I think the Panthers have enough big play ability to capture their first win. They are coming off two weeks of preparation, are better than 0-4, and should be able to run the ball against the Redskins. Washington’s two wins come against two of the worst teams in football, and neither were decisive. The Panthers have shot themselves in the foot repetitively, and have suffered greatly from a lack of good play calling. I think they re-commit to the run and stay relatively mistake free on Sunday to take down the Redskins by a touchdown.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions: Let me preface this with telling you that Detroit covers double digit spreads most of the time. However, despite their single win two weeks ago, this team has been hit by the injury bug. Now, some of the injured players might make it to the field on Sunday, but I’m not sure that’s such a good thing. I expect the Steelers Defense to give Matthew Stafford fits if he plays. I expect that physical Steeler style of play to be tough on the guys out playing with physical problems. I also expect the Lions to continue their brutal play at home. They were 1-7 ATS in Detroit last season. That’s right, 1-7. ATS… And they were often huge dogs. They don’t play well against the fans that have become accustomed to watching them lose. I expect more Steeler fans than Lion fans, the Steelers here are an easy pick.

Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: I know KC is a tough place to play, and I know the Cowboys haven’t been very good this year. But Tony Romo will find room in that secondary, plenty of it, and lets just say the Chiefs defense can cure a lot of ills for the Cowboys offense. On the contrary I don’t think KC will find much room to run against Dallas’s front line. They’ve been good much of the year and I think that continues. Dallas came into the season a little overrated, and their Week 1 win just added to that, but I still expect them to fight for a playoff spot in a tough NFC East – if they are going to do that, destroying a team like KC is expected. Dallas does their best work against bad teams, the Chiefs are that.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants (-15): I absolutely hate doing this, taking a 15 point favorite. But the Giants play at home, and with Eli hurting I think they run even more than usual. That might keep the game close, sure, but it will also keep the Giants on the field offensively, running the life out of that Raiders defense. This has the looks of a 27-3 game if I’ve ever seen one. 27 minus 3 is 24, that’s a cover. The Raiders have given up 23 points or more three times this year, I expect that to happen for the 4th time. If that does indeed happen, like I expect, then the Giants have to cover. Because no way are the Raiders scoring 10 points against the Giants defense. The Raiders have been out-rushed and out-passed in every single game this season. Oakland = JV team (with some varsity studs suiting up for fun) and one lunatic owner that likely enjoys making people millionaires that very well shouldn’t be. All this has me taking the Giants, even if I am with the public on a huge NFL favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Here I am again, taking a huge dog. They surely didn’t help me last week, but if I believe anything it’s that last week rarely means much when picking this week’s games. What I like about the Bucs as a 15 point dog is that they’ve lost just one game by more than 13 points this season, a 24-0 trouncing at the hands of the Giants in a game where absolutely everything that could have gone wrong actually did. In the last 3 years they’ve only lost 3 games by more than 15 points. I know this is a different team than they have been. The Bucs aren’t a good football team, they aren’t as good as I expected them to be even though the most I expected was mediocre. But McNabb should be a little rusty, and Tampa should run the ball a lot, eating away at the clock and Philly’s chances to win by three scores. It’s always tough to take a huge dog, a team with a 95% chance to lose, but I have to here, the value is too good. The Bucs aren’t the Raiders after all.

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Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ St. Louis Rams: My opinion, the Rams are the worst team in football. Another opinion, the Vikings are one of the best. I know this game is on the road in a dome after a short week, but I can’t over-think this match-up too much. It’s the Vikings and the Rams – and I have to think the Vikings are at least 10 points better than the worst team in football. A dissolved offensive line, a running game that will find no room, and a quarterback issue that has no answer on the team. Adrian Peterson couldn’t tear up the Packers, but I bet he makes his mark on St. Louis. I’ll take the Vikes, me and everyone else.

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: I want to take the Niners here, before any research I liked the 49ers, especially just -2.5 at home. I think the 49ers are one of the better teams in football. Atlanta travels a long way to play an old foe, and the Falcons offense hasn’t been nearly as successful as they were last year. The running game has slowed down to a crawl, and Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown the ball all that much, taking very few chances. But I wonder what a week away will do to the Falcons, and I wonder what a week away from playing the JV team in St. Louis does for the 49ers. What I’ve found in my research with Atlanta is that they generally struggle against teams that throw the ball real well, not necessarily a strength of the 49ers. Over their last 14 games, they’ve only lost to the Eagles, Patriots, Cardinals, and Saints – what do all those teams have in common? Prolific passers, air attacks that do most of their offensive damage. Atlanta isn’t great against the run, but they seem to do okay if they can key in on that part of an offense. Shaun Hill has done a good job, but the Falcons will make him win the game for the 49ers. History says he won’t be able to, and that has me going with the small road dog.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5): I like the Cardinals to win. Now, they don’t run the ball real well, so they won’t be taking full advantage of teh Texans defense, but Houston is generally terrible on the road, Arizona stops the run well, and the Cardinals score enough to keep up with and out-do the Texans. This game opened as a 7 point favorite game for the Cardinals, I think that’s more even value. But, since the line has moved, I see the Cardinals as a solid side bet here.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos: I’ll take Bill against his old assistant coach. Everybody has been talking about how the Patriots miss Josh McDaniels, about how the offense doesn’t look the same without him, well, I expect that to motivate a couple Patriots this week, and I’m still one of the few that think New England is an elite team in this league. Denver just can’t go 5-0, can they? They have a chance, definitely, I doubt this game will be a blowout. However, the Broncos beating the Cowboys last week doesn’t make them a great team. If they ice the Patriots in Week 5, I’ll give them their due, but until that happens, the Patriots as a 3 point favorite against a team that has beaten Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, and Dallas – sure, I’ll take my chances and like them. Plus, if all else fails, I can just wait for the refs to give a huge call to New England, right?

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Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: As if the Hawks needed more problems, their best pass rusher (Patrick Kerney) is out on defense while their offensive injury woes continue with the loss of starting OT, Sean Locklear. It’s getting gross. I don’t know what it is about Seattle, one of the healthiest major cities in the world, but the home town Seahawks just can’t seem to stay healthy there. Injury free, I would probably take the Hawks here. But injury free isn’t an option, and Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars’ physical style of play only make room for more Seahawks injuries. David Garrard has played very well, and there’s holes in that Hawks secondary. If Matty Hasselbeck comes back, the Hawks have a chance, but I don’t know how the Hawk brass could put their main guy out there with rib problems and neither of his starting OTs to protect him. I’ll take the healthy team.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Bad value, bad value, but I pick them all! The Titans and Colts have split each of the last 3 years. That’s pretty interesting to me considering the persona of these two teams during that time period. Last year’s win by the Colts was basically meaningless, as it was Jim Sorgi leading the Colts to victory in a game where most starters sat from both teams. But this is a different year, no doubt, and the Colts have yet to lose while plowing through their last two opponents by a combined score of 65-27. The NFC West hasn’t stood a chance thus far. Peyton Manning has come in dominating, and the Colts defense that normally gives up tons of rushing yardage, has tightened a little. The Titans, on the other hand, are winless after 4 attempts. The best regular season record from yester-year hasn’t gotten over Alberty Haynesworth’s departure, and surprisingly it’s their secondary getting pushed around because of it. I really want to go against the Colts here, I know the public will be throwing everything at Indianapolis, and besides last week’s destruction at the hands of the Jaguars, the Titans have played pretty good football and lost to some pretty good teams (Pittsburgh, Houston, the New York Jets – all losses by a touchdown or less). But I believe the Titans secondary to be a lovely match-up for Colts’ backers. Peyton should pick apart one of the more porous secondaries in football, so I have to take the Colts, even with the bad line value.

New York Jets (-2) @ Miami Dolphins: It comes down to the Jets slowing the Dolphins rushing attack so Miami can’t score many touchdowns, the Jets pass rush putting too much pressure on a quarterback starting his second game at the NFL level, and an offense that struggled last week and will re-commit to the run this time around. The Dolphins are a solid football team, I like them, they are much better than their 1-3 record insists – but they just don’t have a good match-up with the Jets. The Colts are a nice match-up for them. Lots of good teams will have plenty of trouble with the Dolphins, I just don’t think the Jets are one of them. Neither does the public, but so what, the public wins sometimes too. Scary spread, it hasn’t really moved at all despite nearly 70% loving the road Jets on Monday Night Football in Miami. But I ain’t scared. Lets do work!

NFL Week 3 Free Football Picks

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I’ve had a good start with my free football picks this season, no doubt about it, but now it gets tougher in the NFL. After giving all you readers some impressive picks over the first two weeks, I have a bit of a reputation to uphold, and of course, I’ll do my very best. I had one or two go my way last week, but a couple did me dirty as well. I see some lines looming large in Week 3, I’ll try to get my hands on them and see what I can do. A lot of tight games that could go either way this week, I’ve felt that way and gone 5-11, and I remember feeling that way when I submitted my perfect week a few years back. I’m taking 11 dogs this week, and I’m not sure if that’s such a good thing. I’m not trying to fade the public, even though it looks like that in a lot of instances. I just happen to see some inflated lines because of early season play, and some disrespect for some teams that have played pretty well despite ending up on the wrong side of scoreboards. Week 3 could be huge – going for three big winners in a row… Good luck to all!

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Cleveland Browns (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens: This game will be closer than two touchdowns. I like what the Ravens have done, opening up their playbook for Flacco and company, but I think we’ll get a pretty good performance out of the Browns, as the first two weeks have shown you can find lots of open spaces in Baltimore’s secondary. That should help Brady Quinn and company. Plus, I see the Ravens reverting back to their grind it out style, clock destruction mode, here. That helps this big spread stay covered. We’ll see, but give me the Browns.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7): There’s no doubt in my mind that the Giants are good, however, they played really poorly last week and won anyway. That’s a red flag for me, as always. They also haven’t stopped the run as well as in the past, another red flag against a Bucs team that runs really well. This game could go either way, but if the Bucs start out running well enough, I don’t think the Giants will take as many big chances. Both teams should run the ball a lot, taking time off the clock, and keeping this one closer to the spread. If Tampa loses they go 0-3, so there’s a lot to play for at home for the Buccos. Tough call, but I have to take the dog in this one.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams: Marc Bulger is bad – the Packers put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Rams are missing their first round pick starting offensive tackle, and they are the worst team in football despite those things. You can run against the Packers, and I see the Rams attempting to do that early and often. But the Packers lost last week, a loss here would put them at a discouraging 1-2 to start the season. More running game, more blitzing, more cowbell – the hat trick puts me on the Packers in St. Louis.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have trouble with big receivers like Dwayne Bowe, just ask Marques Colston. They also don’t play as mistake free without McNabb. The Eagles heavy blitz system should actually be a benefit to Matt Cassel and his quick decision, precision passing style of quarterbacking. If the Chiefs just put the ball in Larry Johnson’s hands early and often, I think they can take full advantage of the Eagles’ porous front 7. These things and that big spread, have me on the Chiefs to cover in Philadelphia. I know the Eagles are the better team, but KC has played two pretty tight games to start the year. Todd Haley will keep these guys competitive.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4): I think the Patriots come back strong after everyone starts counting them down and out after last week’s loss. They definitely haven’t played well to start the season, and I’m not sure this defense will be right all year, but I like Tom to get better and better as the season goes forward, and Atlanta has shown me that they can’t stop your best pass/catch option, even if they know it’s coming. I think Tom and Randy have a big day, bigger than Steve Smith last week. New England knows how to walk with a chip, and I think they play much better at home this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are good, but they are getting too much love after kicking around 2 of the bottom five teams in the league. The 49ers should be a good test. They are very physical, play mistake free football, and can bring it on both sides of the ball with an effective attack. Shaun Hill somehow manages to limit his mistakes despite locking onto receivers and generally throwing the ball into scary places. I think this game stays pretty low in the scoring department, and a 14-10 contest wouldn’t surprise me. Add that up and you get a cover – either way – I’ll take it.

Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Houston Texans (-3.5): I’ve been a huge Jaguars fan for sometime, I like their style and always think they are about to break out. In fact, I think MJD will be huge this week, but not huge enough. Last week the Texans got pretty lucky to get a late fumble, but they were by no means out of that game, and likely would have forced a kick on a 3rd and long situation. They did get the fumble, then got the field goal, then won the game. If Jacksonville can stay in this game early, it might be tough to Houston to pull away – but Houston is always just a play away from taking it to the house, and I think Jacksonville’s defense could end up on the wrong side of a couple late scores. I know Houston doesn’t play it safe late, going for the jugular when they get the chance – I like that to happen this week in a game that should see lots of offensive action.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions: I want to take the Lions, I really do, but they are still starting Matthew Stafford, and they intend to do so all season long. Should be a long one for Detroit fans. I still like the Redskins despite them getting me a loss last week as they failed to get into the end zone. They have some dynamic players, they have to break through sooner or later. I’m betting on sooner.

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Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New York Jets: Can the Titans keeps losing games by a field goal? I don’t know, possibly yes, but it’s tough to go against them here. I like the Jets a lot, I’ve said that since my season preview came out, but the Titans come into Week 3 winless after playing pretty solid football in Weeks 1 and 2. Going 0-3 is really tough, and I usually see a little extra fight from 0-2 teams, something I’ll expect to see this week from the Titans. A little urgency if you will. The Jets are coming off a huge emotional win against the Patriots, after they invested everything into that game. I expect a little bit of a let down in Week 3, just enough to get the Titans their first win.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills (+6): This game is very hard for me. I know, everyone says ride the Saints, but I really don’t think they are as good as they’ve been playing – they are missing Pierre Thomas (or at least he’s not healthy) and the same can be said for Mike Bell. Reggie Bush is not a runner. Now I know everyone thinks that Brees can just throw every down and be putting up 50 points, but what has been so great about the Saints offense this season is that threat to run. They need it to be dominant. So, that being said, I’m going with the Bills. I think Buffalo has the right combination of accurate passing, and a solid rushing attack, and even a defense that is pretty solid. I think the Bills stun everyone and keep this game close. But like every Saints game, this one could get very ugly very fast.

Chicago Bears (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is too beat up everywhere, again. I don’t know what’s going on with the Hawks, the Northwest is a nice place, not too much action to get you injured, not too much sun to get you sunburnt, yet these guys are going down like dominoes. The Hawks do have a couple stud offensive linemen coming back, Walter and Spencer, but I still think the Bears will be too much for them. Defensively, Chicago won’t allow the Hawks to gain too much on the ground, and I’m not ready to count Matt Hasselbeck in on Sunday. This game should be close, not the blowout people are expecting, but I still think Chicago by 3 to 7 points is likely. Anything in that area is a cover, so I’ll take the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5): The Steelers’ offensive line is still brutal. The Bengals defense is a lot better than most people give them credit for. Last week’s win over Green Bay wasn’t a fluke, this team is pretty solid. Carson looked good last week, and the Steelers secondary has given up a lot of yardage early in the year, getting thrown on a lot by the Titans and Bears, of all super passing attacks. This is a great rivalry, and I like 4.5 points at home. The Steelers haven’t shown me that they are a team ready to blow opponents out, so giving up that many points on the road seems like great value to me.

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Oakland Raiders: I have taken the Raiders two weeks in a row, and they have set me free giving me victory after victory. The problem is, I think the Raiders get a tough assignment this week, a Broncos team that hasn’t given up much on the ground and can really take advantage of some mis-thrown balls by Mr. Russell, a guy that hasn’t completed even 40% of his passes this season. Kyle Orton doesn’t make big mistakes, and while that might be frustrating fantasy owners of guys like Eddie Royal, this isn’t a fantasy column, and I only see wins and losses. Orton can win. He can definitely win against an offense that needs freebies to stay close. The Raiders have a decent rushing attack, but the Broncos have the guys to put 8 in the box and still shut down the pass. I think they go to 3-0, as crazy as that sounds.

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ San Diego Chargers: I don’t know what’s more likely to happen, the Dolphins starting 0-3 or the Chargers falling to 1-2, at home, to a team that has to fly across the US. The Chargers defense doesn’t look like a team ready to shut down the Dolphins rushing attack. Chad Pennington doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which should keep this game close. The Dolphins should have won last Monday Night in Indy, and while that really means nothing, you might see the ball bounce their way a little more in San Diego. This game should have lots of action, but I think it stays close, giving the value to the team getting nearly a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (+2): You all know, by now, how I feel about teams that should have lost last week only to pull out a win. Enter Indianapolis. The Colts not only did this last week, but they played like piss only to beat the Jaguars by 2 in Week 1. That’s two weeks in a row where they played mediocre at best, only to be undefeated walking into Week 3. Kurt Warner was back in action last week, completing just about every single ball he threw. I know the Colts don’t give up a lot through the air, but I think Kurt and company find a way to make that work at home this week, handing the Colts loss number one on the season.

Carolina Panthers (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys: It’s Monday Night, and while I think the Cowboys are a good team, I don’t know if they are 9 point favorite good, even against a Panthers team that hasn’t looked up for the test since the season started. Dallas has looked good against the run, but everyone’s been able to throw on them, and a couple big plays from Steve Smith should cover this game right up. Monday Night always seems to have close games, and Dallas really hasn’t looked brilliant in any game this season. Taking the points!

NFL Week 2 Expert Picks Review: Football Handicapping

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It would be easy to say that I should have won 11 for my Week 2 football picks for week too, because, honestly, I have to feel I picked that Monday Night game right on the button. But that’s just looking at what went wrong. If I was doing the what if business, or the should have business, I would have to admit the Giants probably shouldn’t have won on Sunday Night either… But I won 10 more games this week, starting out with double digit douzies in each of the first two weeks. Can’t ask for much more than that. This is how the cookie crumbled…

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Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) This game was very close. I’m not saying I should have won, but I’m not saying I look like a dope for making this pick either. The Panthers had their chances, that’s for sure, and were driving the ball late in this game, going for a tie. Two times in the red-zone with no points ended things for Carolina, a team that I think should be a nice underdog going forward.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-9.5): (LOSS)  “At first glance this one is tough for me to stomach. Take the Rams, a team I have claimed to be the worst in football, or the Redskins, a team favored by 10 that has shown very little ability to put the ball in the end zone with Jason Campbell at the point.” I followed this by saying some things that I wish I wouldn’t have. Things I may never say again like, “I believe in the Redskins’ offense”. Washington won, sure, but they didn’t even score enough to cover if they had shut out the Rams. The play calling in Washington is very dull, lacks any sort of creativity, and basically gives Jason Campbell no chance to succeed. I don’t know why coaches insist on doing this for quarterbacks that are struggling. Making a QB easier to defend is no way to help him out, to help him improve. Both of these teams were pathetic on Sunday, but the Rams are still the worst team in football.

Houston Texans (+8) @ Tennessee Titans: (WINNER) “From what I saw from the Titans last week, they have a very good run defense. But they have holes in that secondary if the offensive line withstands that immediate surge. I think the Texans were terrible last week, but not a terrible football team. So things have to even out. The Titans should have won against Pittsburgh, but some missed field goals kept the Steelers in the game. The Titans are solid, and should run the ball well against Houston, but the Texans are closer to the Titans than 8 points. This is a divisional game, and both teams should come in with a lot to prove. That usually keeps the outcome closer, I’ll take the points.” I’m glad I got this one. Lots of points early, and Chris Johnson’s very own highlight film had me on the ropes. But just like I expected, Houston’s offense came to play, and this game was tied late. With a certain cover in the cards, I loved seeing Houston come out and upset Tennessee at home. I think Houston has this kind of offense, and will continue to give good teams trouble all season long.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1): (LOSS) “I don’t think this is a safe bet, but I’m taking the Eagles.” Hopefully you took my warning to heart, unlike myself, and didn’t wager on this game. I liked the Eagles, thought they’d be tougher defensively for Drew, but the 6 foot wonder kid torched his second straight opponent. It’s going to take a down game from Brees for his Saints to lose, and I’m not sure how easy that’s going to be to predict. The Eagles secondary is pretty solid, but Brees made them look like junior varsity most improved players… The Eagles put up lots of yards, but the Saints D made some big plays putting this one on the top shelf early.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+5): (WINNER)  “I don’t like taking a team that played poorly, should have lost, and won last week. So I’m not going to do it. The Jets do lots of little things right, and their defense is stout. I’m not sure the Patriots will be able to stop the run with Seymour stuffing the line of scrimmage in Oakland and Jarrod Mayo out for a few weeks. The Jets have a very solid offensive line, and I think they’ll be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.” You could see the chip on the Jets’ shoulders all game long. New York is too good defensively to be a 5 point dog, and their offensive line is too good for that as well. They do the little things right, they should have won this game, and they did.

Oakland Raiders (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) Well, JaMarcus Russell was brutal, the Raiders didn’t run all that well, but KC’s offense couldn’t put up points either, and the Raiders pulled out a win in KC. I liked the Raiders to win this one, and they did just enough to make that happen. I wouldn’t say the beat up on the Chiefs, but as a four point dog against a bad offense, you don’t need to kill to be an easy cover. I thought the Raiders were exactly that.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): (LOSS)  Kurt Warner was amazingly accurate, and the Cardinals, never a good team playing on the East Coast, got to 1-1 on the season by smashing a Jaguars team that doesn’t look that good. Jacksonville needs something, and I’m not sure it’s players… Just saying.

Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER)  “I hate to do this, because I think the Packers are a lot better than they played last week, but I can’t take a team that played poorly last week, pulled out a win anyway, and is now favored by 9 over a defense that looks much improved. I think the Bengals offense will improve every week, and from Week 1 to Week 2 will be no difference. People will look at this game and say, the Bengals suck, they lost to the terrible Broncos, but I don’t see it that way. I don’t think the Broncos are bad, they just aren’t great. And it took a pretty big fluke for the Bengals to get ousted in Week 1. Nine is a lot of points, and an improved Bengals defense should keep it closer than that. A couple big plays from Palmer and Chad, and this could be a big upset in Week 1. Survivor players, steer clear!” Please tell me you listened up and didn’t go with the Packers in your survivor games… I know I stayed away, and for good reason. That first part of what I said, never take a team that played poorly and just slipped by and is now a big favorite – write that down, put it in a safe, and look in that safe every week before making your picks.

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Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Like everyone else, I liked the Vikings here. For all the obvious reasons that made them one of the more popular picks in Week 2 – so I don’t need to go into much detail. All I know is that Stafford still isn’t ready as his two more interceptions in Week 2 show. If the Lions want to win, Culpepper is their guy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) @ Buffalo Bills: (LOSS) This was a tough one. Buffalo jumped out early, and honestly if it weren’t for some big dropped passes by TO, this game would have been an even bigger blowout. I really expected good things from the Bucs run game in this one, but like many running teams, if you start off way behind it’s tough to get the run game started. A swing and a miss no doubt.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5): (WINNER)  “I think the 49ers just play a tougher brand of football that makes a tough match-up for the Hawks. Frank Gore’s running style seems to eat up the smallish Hawks front 7, and especially with Leroy Hill out, Seattle should have trouble preventing Gore from averaging less than 5 yards a carry. I think San Fran will feed the man the ball, and that should be enough to pull a home win in Week 2.” My buddy, and fantasy writer on my site, Red Red Ryan, told me that I was nuts for taking the 49ers here, and when I told him that Frank Gore would dominate the Hawks, he asked me when the last time he had 100 yards against the Hawks was…. Well, needless to say, when I got a text midway through the 1st quarter, I was happy to see a reply saying: “Well that didn’t take long.” Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re right and your friend is wrong. Like my buddy Josh says, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3) : (WINNER) I liked the Broncos at home, but I didn’t expect them to blow Cleveland out. Now it was just 13-6 going into the 4th quarter, but Denver really ran this game. I liked them a lot more than most people did, coming into the season, but their defensive prowess has been even better than I expected.

Baltimore Ravens (+4) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) This game was pretty interesting. A couple huge plays defensively got Baltimore the win, but contrary to what I expected, it was offense that dominated this box score, but it wasn’t the offensive numbers that won the game. Phillip Rivers put up 436 passing yards against the Ravens, that’s nuts. But SD couldn’t run the ball at all, and the Ravens ended up eating up the clock and being more physical up front. Willis McGahee had a big day, but it was Ray Lewis that shut the Chargers down on 4th down in the 4th quarter, ending the game. The Ravens were going to cover either way, but the win felt nice.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+3): (WINNER) “The Steelers’ offensive line is pretty bad, just ask Willie Parker and his 19 yards on 13 carries last week… They played a poor game and should have lost last week against the Titans, but Tennessee kept pooping the bed every time they got into the red-zone area. …Cutler also has the ability to make some big plays too, and a couple big plays could be enough points to beat the Steel City. There’s no doubt in my mind that Cutler will be better in his second outing, and while the Steelers are very tough defensively, their offense isn’t strong enough to blow a solid team out. Chicago is a good team. I think this one is close, but I’m going against the defending champs here.” There you go. The Steelers’ O-line wasn’t good enough to beat up the Bears defense as Pitt’s run game never got on track. Ben threw the ball all over the field again, but like I said, that’s no way to get a sure win. Chicago took advantage, hung in, and used some big throws to get the win in a game nobody thought they had a chance in. I like to win, don’t get me wrong, but I love to win when I have readers writing in and telling me how wrong I am about said pick. Guys, I’m not mailing you back and telling you I told you so, because you know what’s up.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) So, when I pick a game wrong I admit it. And I’ve always been one to tell you if I pick a game wrong, win or lose. This is one of those cases. If I had to do it again, I’d probably go with the Cowboys in this situation. They played better. They were the better team, and they smashed the Giants around. New York needed some freak stuff to happen and a terrible game from Mr. Romo to win this game – and that’s what they got. In most instances, Tony doesn’t throw the ball around like Ryan Leaf, but thank goodness for me, and all those other Giant backers, that’s exactly what he did on Sunday Night. Don’t worry though, I took some Karma on Monday Night.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (+3): (LOSS) “I think they’ll run the ball very effectively, and upset Indy. The Colts had a lot of big numbers last week, but just barely snuck by the Jaguars. Now, that’s what the Colts do from time to time, but I think it’s because Indy just isn’t as powerful as they once were. Basically, I expect the same Colts I saw last week and a much better Dolphins team than the one that lost a pushover to the Falcons.” What more can I say? Did I or did I not have this game right on the freaking button? The Dolphins ran the show on Monday Night, and all signs point to them winning the game. However, some pretty poor coaching, some terrible calls on their last field goal drive and on the final drive of the game, Ted Ginn Jr. dropping the game winner in the end zone, and this guy name Peyton Manning and his Colts barely sneaking by just happened to do me in by a single point. You win most of these, you lose some. That’s just the way it goes.

When all is edited and rephrased, I took ten this week. I’ll take 10 Wins every week for the rest of my life and smile from ear to ear. Until next week!

Free Week 1 NFL Picks

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I’m back in action. Fresh off one of my best seasons, I’m ready to deal out my absolutely, 100%, completely, with no small lettered catches at the bottom, Free NFL Football Picks. It’s not often that you get free like this, I know. Willy didn’t even get this free. Perfect. Well I guess you have that blasted internet bill, and you are likely paying for electricity, so it’s not completely free, but I’m not charging you anything. So, at least from me to you is free. Enough free talk. Lets talk football picks. I’ve busted out some previews and some fantasy football action and plenty of other football stuff. But now for the advice. Who do I think is going to take the cake in Week 1? The answers are below. Free. Ha – check them out!

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This isn’t the easiest pick for me, but in the end a hard nosed game, that promises to be an ugly smash mouth defensive battle, has me thinking 6 is just too much. I like the Steelers, don’t get me wrong, but the Titans didn’t get that much worse. Sure, they lost a lot with Albert Haynesworth (the Titans didn’t dominate without Haynesworth), and Pittsburgh’s defense is legit, but I’m not buying a repeat performance for the Steelers in 2009 – last year’s Super Bowl winners usually aren’t very good beginners – write that down. Their offensive line isn’t great, and that’s enough for me to take Tennessee on opening night.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals: I’m not sold on Carson Palmer’s health quite yet. Okay, I think he’s healthy enough to play, but I’m not sure he’ll come out firing on all cylinders to start the season. He’s been out for quite some time. The Broncos have at least one shut-down corner, and I like their defense a lot more than last season’s pathetic unit. I just think their game plan is better. I know they’ll be tougher against the run and put a little more pressure on the QB. Kyle Orton will be better than he showed early in the pre-season, Knowshon Moreno will be dynamic, because, well, he is dynamic. And the Broncos will be a little better than people thought they’d be. Josh McDaniels doesn’t have many fans as of now, but I’m one of them. There’s lots of big plays to be had on that offense, and Cinci isn’t really a machine on either side of the ball. I’ll take the points!

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland Browns: I may be riding with the public here (shoot 99% of sportsbook wagers are taking the Vikings against the spread… I hate picking Minnesota, but I don’t see it any other way. The Browns defense is better than advertised, but Minnesota will be able to gang up on the Browns rushing attack, and their two big guns up front are still in play after the court battle isn’t settled. The Vikings have a great offensive line and a QB, while quite long in the tooth, can make all the throws on the field, and has a tendency to start strong. I like Minnesota: me and everyone else.

New York Jets (+5) @ Houston Texans: This is a close one because the spread is 5, I like the Texans to win, but I like the Jets to cover. 28-24 maybe? Maybe less scoring? Here’s the deal, Mark Sanchez is the real deal. He has great feet, watch him, his confidence in the pocket is awesome. That offensive line is one of the top 5 units in football, and I haven’t even gotten to talking about the Jets defense yet. They may be missing Calvin Pace, but with David Harris and Bart Scott at linebacker, and Kris Jenkins protecting them, I think this team has plenty of playmakers and ball hawks to make some big plays happen. The Texans won’t be able to run, and the Jets will. That’s why I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7): I actually think this line is one of those that looks to good to be true. If Maurice Jones Drew, a guy that is obviously supposed to be the focal point of this offense in Jacksonville, was completely healthy, I would probably steer toward the Jaguars, but nothing about Jacksonville’s defense tells me that Peyton isn’t going to pick his way to score after score. The Colts might start off a little slow in their new schemes, but this is a veteran team with elite talent at very key positions. Bob Sanders out could hurt, but where are the Jaguars really going to pick apart the Colts? Indy looked better against the run in the pre-season. Like I said, that 7 points for the Colts originally made me think, great bet for the Jags, but after looking at it, the line seems about right. Indy at home against a team that can’t pressure Manning, nor can they guard all the offensive playmakers. So, after much deep though action, I’ll roll against the Jaguars, whom I think will turn it around this season.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I actually like the Bucs this season, I think they’ll be just fine as I noted in my Total Wins column. However, this is just a bad match-up for them. Despite having a plethora of backs, a trio I guess, and a pretty damn good offensive line, the Cowboys may just be too tough up front. The pre-season doesn’t always show it all, but last season it was real tough to run against the Boys, and this pre-season was no different. A couple solid run games did nothing against Dallas’s top unit. Many think they’ll lose a lot of punch without one of he league’s all time wide receivers, but I don’t see much drop off from this offense sans TO. They’ll run the ball more, which should bum Tampa Bay out, and check down more to guys like Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Patrick Crayton – the first two are big time play makers that will make defenses pay all year. I like Dallas to win by double digits on the road in this one. Not because the Bucs are bad, but because it’s just a bad match-up for the home team.

Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: I’m such a baby, the Dolphins make me cry… A little Hootie and the Blowfish for ya, you bet. Alright, so I’m taking the Dolphins because they only got better. They seem to struggle a lot with teams that light up the airways and teams with really stellar run defenses that force Pennington to beat them over the top. Atlanta has neither of those aspects on their squad. I know the Falcons are a lot to handle in the run-game, and the Dolphins don’t have the toughest run-stuffing crew in the league, but this group is talented, no doubt. I think Jason Taylor will be a great addition to this defense, and I see Matt Ryan having a lot of trouble every time he drops back. Joey Porter and Taylor are no joke coming off opposing edges. The Dolphins just seem to find a way to win in close games, and last year they played a lot of close games. They can run the ball really well, Pennington plays close to mistake free football, and Matt Ryan still has to stare down the sophomore slump. This game will be very close, and those 4 points could really come in handy.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-13): I think the Ravens run all over the Chiefs and that punch-less KC “offensive” attack has a lot of trouble doing diddly in Baltimore. Bo don’t know Diddly, but I do, and the Chiefs won’t be doing it. Got me? Nobody runs against the Ravens, and something tells me the Chiefs won’t change that history. Matt Cassel might be healthy enough to start, but I wouldn’t care if he got to borrow Randy Moss and Wes Welker for this one, he’s not going to light up the Ravens, even with a secondary that has become a little more unknown if not suspect over the years. This game has really shot up, from -7 to -13, and I still like the Ravens. It’s kind of gross, I know, to like a line after it’s almost doubled, but what can I say. I see Flacco being very accurate against a defensive secondary that recently cut their starting safety and is in the midst of changing defensive schemes under a new head coach. The Chiefs will win some games this year, just not these kind of games. 27-6 is a score I wouldn’t be surprised about.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): I love the Eagles this season, really, I do. But I won’t love them against one of the best rushing attacks in the league until they do something or prove something with that front seven. They couldn’t stop the run this pre-season as I watched opponents run freely over the Eagles. Philly should put up a lot of points, and I fully understand that the Panthers have no interior defensive line either – but the Panthers will fully take advantage of that while the Eagles instead decide to throw the ball 4 out of every 5 downs… Just in this match-up, I like the underdog, hometown, returning best record in the NFC. Call me crazy. The Eagles just have too much hype for me.

Detroit Lions (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: What can I say? I’ve never liked the Saints as a huge favorite against anyone. While they have plenty of fire-power, this is a team that can lose to anybody. Kevin Smith’s running ability, and a couple big plays through the air between rookie signal caller Matthew Stafford and one of the best receiving prospects ever, Calvin Johnson, should be just enough to keep the Lions covering this spread in New Orleans. 5 of the Saints 8 wins were by 10 points or less, and while one of those was a 42-7 beating of Detroit, This line is moving on up, and is getting to 14 in some circles, so you might want to wait just to see – 14 obviously has more value that 13 for obvious scoring reasons. I like the Lions either way. One thing that really scares me is the fact that New Orleans was 7-1 ATS as a favorite last season, meaning they beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Still, 13 points in Week 1 is too much for me, despite those stats telling me otherwise. A stat on my side sees the Lions at 7-1 ATS last season as a double digit dog.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have not impressed me. They have a couple talented backs, but no run blocking offensive linemen to spring them loose. They have Kurt Warner, Larry Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston – but they have no toughness, and they just played too well late last season to not come back to earth this time around. The 49ers may have not signed their top draft pick, a guy with the dynamic playmaking ability they desperately need, but I think they’ll be fine without him. Frank Gore is going to run the ball a lot, and Shaun Hill will use that to get some play action throws to open receivers down field. The Cardinals won’t be as tough against the run this season, and the 49ers will be better at everything in Mike’s first full year as head coach. Their offense may be simple, but that toughness will shine through early.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ New York Giants: I don’t think the Giants are scary enough offensively to bust the Skins through the air. Washington will get more pressure on opposing offenses this season as Haynesworth really is that good. Al will also help ease the pain against one of the best offensive lines in the league, and I think Washington stacks the line against the Giants in this game. I think 6.5 is too much in a game that looks to have very few scoring opportunities.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): Its hard for me to be too excited about the Rams, I called them the worst team in football last season, and despite the Lions hideous record, I stand by that claim. There was no team that was more pathetic than this Rams team a year ago. They no longer have Orlando Pace, but Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg at the edges instead. They don’t have Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce, but Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery. Steven Jackson is still there, but unfortunately still is Marc Bulger. The guy kills more drives by hanging onto the ball than any QB I know. The defense is aging and hurting (like Leonard Little) and failed draft picks over the last couple years are coming back to haunt the new regime. That being said, it’s still 8.5 in Week 1 against a Hawks team that hasn’t proven to be beastly quite yet. I’m going on record and saying this spread is too high. It’s bad value, and I don’t know what I’m thinking by taking the Hawks anyway. It’s one of those times where I just have that feeling…

Chicago Bears  @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): The Bears have gained some momentum going into Week 1. Jay Cutler has looked good in a Bears uniform, and Matt Forte should get more room to run because of it – but can they hang with the Packers in Green Bay? I don’t think the Bears are healthy enough up front, to be honest. I know that sounds crazy, but Chicago will continue to hurt in the front 7 without a healthy Tommie Harris. His push, with quickness against the run and pass, really makes a difference for this defense, and I just haven’t seen that yet. The Packers were better than their record showed last season, and that usually starts to even out the season after some tough luck losses. I expect Ryan Grant to get off to a nice start while Aaron Rodgers gives the Bears secondary fits. A key factor that has me going away from Chicago here is the Packers corners. That group is very tough on the young Bears’ receivers – they’re just too physical and too crafty for those young pass catchers. I like Green Bay.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5): I like the Patriots to dominate in this game. Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on the Buffalo Bills offense, defense, special teams, coaching staff, ownership, etc. They could come out and surprise me, but after spending all pre-season putting together a special offensive plan only to fire the coordinator and scrap it all for something else cries of a TO blow-up on the way. He’ll be asking to get traded to Philly after this year is over. The Bills don’t have a powerful offensive line anymore, and while they do have a couple big time playmakers lining up out wide, I’m not sure Trent is ready to fully take advantage of their talents. New England, on the other hand, should continue to be a beast offensively. I’m probably riding on the Patriot train with a bunch of other public chalk lovers, but I don’t see the Bills slapping enough points on the board to hang with Tom and company. Belichick has had his way with the Bills over the last few years – that trend continues as Dick Jauron’s job security loses some sway. In my happiest of dreams, the OC is brought back half way through the season to take Dick’s job, and he leads the Bills to one of the most stellar offensive outputs in the 2nd half… Dreams. I’ll take the Pats.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9): This line will likely move to 10 if you wait. I don’t have that options because I’m not allowed to wait. Schucks auto supply! Oh well, I still like the underdogs in this divisional match-up. I know, the Chargers get to show up and win, they can sleep through the season and easily take the division, and they have more talent in 5 positions than the Raiders have all over the field. I don’t care. What I care about is that the Raiders will be able to run enough to keep themselves in it. JaMarcus Russell has looked impressive enough to me, and he’s not a mistake prone guy. If a team can run, and they limit their mistakes, that’s good enough to walk with them and a nine point cushion. The Raiders won two straight to end last season, and those weren’t the Lions and Rams, those two wins were against the Texans and a Bucs team that only needed a win against the lowly Raiders in Week 17 to get a playoff birth. They didn’t get it, Gruden lost his job, the Raiders brass (AL freaking DAVIS) rejoiced. I hate the Raiders, let that be known, but I think their rushing attack and fewer mistakes keeps them close enough. If Richard Seymour wipes the sand out and gets to Oakland tomorrow, I like this bet even better.

2009 NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins

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These are my over/under predictions for the NFL Season. I have every team listed in alphabetical order, with their over/under line and the total predicted wins. Nobody can win them all – unless of course you’re those bunch of Dolphins that sold their soul so they could get interviewed midway through the season and claim they were the best ever. I hate that ish. All my lines come from TheGreek.com.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (Under 8.5 wins -130) (7): Every team in the AFC South is tough, and could easily take down the Cardinals. The NFC South is getting tougher as well, despite St. Louis’s presence in the division. Arizona is not as deep this season, and come in overrated in 2009. They are a couple injuries away from a very tough post-Super Bowl hangover.
  2. Atlanta Falcons (Over 8.5 wins +110) (10): The Falcons face a tough challenge, getting back to the playoffs out of the NFC South. These teams rotate like a damn merry-go-round from year to year, and it’s a pretty stacked division as well. Any one of these teams could turn in a solid year, but I don’t expect much out of Tampa. The Panthers rarely put out 2 good seasons in a row, and while the Falcons may have a tougher schedule, last year’s young team has enough to get back to the playoffs in 2009.
  3. Baltimore Ravens (Over 8.5 wins -150) (10): KC, Denver, and Oakland. There’s three. Cleveland twice.. Four, Five. At the very least, one against Cincinnati. Six. Detroit. Seven. So they need to win two more games over the course of the season to get over – sure, I’ll take that bet. The Bengals should be better, and build off a solid defensive performance late last season, but the Ravens are still a top 2 team in the AFC North.
  4. Buffalo Bills (Under 7.5 wins +110) (7): The Buffalo Bills lost a great offensive lineman, which just happened to be one of their strengths last season. They won 7 games in 2008, against powerhouses like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos. With the NFC South on their schedule in 2009, the wins shouldn’t pile up quite so easily. TO is a big talent, but I’m not sure he tightens up that defense. I’ll go under.
  5. Carolina Panthers (Under 8.5 -145) (8): The Panthers ran the ball all over everyone last season, and they still played a heap of close games. Using the reasoning that they never play lights out two seasons in a row is stupid, and I won’t do that, I’ll just write about how that is usually the case. That is usually the case. There. The AFC South “NEVER” goes to the same team two seasons in a row. They lost some defense, might have trouble stopping the run, and have some luck about to evaporate as well.
  6. Chicago Bears (Under 8.5 +135) (7): Jay Cutler gets them more wins? Maybe. But this team will really rely on stopping the pass and Tommie Harris’s health. I don’t think they will be able to stop the pass, and Harris has yet to look like the guy that couldn’t be blocked rushing the interior a couple seasons ago. Urlacher is getting old, and while Briggs is still in his prime, he can’t tackle them all. Packers and Vikings get better in 2009, Detroit too, this division just got tougher.
  7. Cincinnati Bengals (Over 7.5 wins +125) (8): I’m not buying into the Bengals getting over .500 but their schedule looks easier than most, and I’m predicting a finish right on the even mark. The Ravens and Steelers are very tough defensively, and will likely eat the Bengals alive, but Cinci gets to play Cleveland twice. That’s nice. This defense is getting better, and while this is actually a tough pick for me, the Bengals’ schedule is in their favor, and I am predicting a late push gets them to even or better.
  8. Cleveland Browns (Under 6.5 wins -130) (5): The Browns stink. They won 10 fluke games in 2007, just enough to get their head guy some more money from the Brownies, and now they have Man-jina trying to run the brown gongshow circus in Cleveland. They have no gimmy wins this season – none, they aren’t good enough and no college teams are on their schedule. Their best offensive weapon drops touchdowns, and other passes to boot. They will likely be starting a first year starter at QB, and their running back is 29 going on 40. Defensively they have 3 or 4 good players, but no depth at all. I say they get lucky and win 5. Sam Bradford, step right up!
  9. Dallas Cowboys (Under 9.5 wins -130) (8): Call me crazy, but I think the Cowboys struggle in this division. They lost a great weapon when TO was let go. They have a nice running back trio, but an aging offensive line might cause trouble when injuries hit. A couple of their “easy games” happen to be in very tough places to play (Denver and KC), and the NFC East is probably the toughest division in football. I think the Eagles (even after losing some key defenders) and Giants (even with Eli at QB) are two very tough teams and the Redskins are no slouch, either. Drawing the NFC South makes it that much tougher, so tough that a 10 win season seems less likely than .500 – with a game to play with, I’ll take the under.
  10. Denver Broncos (Under 6.5 wins -115) (5): No love for Josh McDaniels and his Broncos I guess. But remember, this team still plays against the Chiefs and Raiders, two improving squads? maybe, but still KC and Oakland… Lets just say they get 3 of those 5 contests. They still need 4 more wins to beat this under. Look at their schedule, they draw one of the toughest stretches in football going up against Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, SD again, and the Giants… Sounds like 8 losses to me. Lets say they get one of those games. They still need 3 wins against a “rest of schedule” that shows the Eagles and Colts. I wanted to say over here, really I did, but that middle of the year looks like a Korean class learning how to pronounce their toughest letter to master.
  11. Detroit Lions (Over 4.5 wins -135) (7): This one is pretty easy in my opinion. Sure, the Lions lost them all last year, but they aren’t a talentless bunch – not by any means. Their new staff brought in some solid schemes, and I expect nice things from this offense if Daunte gets to run the show. Defensively, they are still challenged, but they have made some moves that should allow them come together. There are wins to be had on that schedule, and being the “worst team ever” has to motivate a bunch of guys that get paid to be competitive. Laugh now, but the Lions improve in 2009.

Come back later in the week for my next 2009 NFL Regular Season Predictions segment. I’ll follow the alphabet one more time, going from Green Bay all the way to New York…

NFL Free Picks: Week 14

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My Week 14 sees a lot of covers from road teams – and I’m not too sure what to think about that after Week 13 was basically all road team. I do know that I didn’t plan it this way and it’s just the way my eyes see each individual game working out. After another winning week in Lucky Week 13, I’m on to some good things here as well. Don’t trick yourself, check out my free picks!

Oakland Raiders (+11) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have 2 wins by 10 or more points, and last time they played the Raiders they needed 25 4th quarter points to win by 10. What else is that San Diego can’t seem to find a way to come to play against bad teams. The beat KC, sure, but it took a KC missed 2-point conversion to get that win, as they took the Chiefs by a score. It hasn’t been pretty for one of the more talented teams in the AFC, as seen by their 4-8 record after 13 weeks. The Raiders have just 3 wins, but they are playing close with opponents. They’ve finished within 11 points of their opponent in each of their last 4 games, including a big win over Denver in Denver. Should the Raiders be in this game? No, but this is the NFL and the Chargers defense hasn’t been good enough. The whole team hasn’t come to play against lesser opponents. The Raiders are terrible. Getting up for this game during a lost season seems unlikely. I’ll take Oakland on upset Thursday.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): The Jaguars have 4 wins this season, all coming against teams that can’t run the ball with consistency and power. They have been better on the road (3-3), but that might just be a coincidence based on the teams they’ve played on the road. Indy, Denver, and Detroit were 3 road wins. Indy was brutal early, and still can’t find a consistent rushing attack. Denver is a freaking yo-yo, and they haven’t been able to run the ball consistently all season long, and Detroit – well, they are freaking Detroit (and Kevin Smith still rushed over 100 yards against the Jags). The Bears can really run the ball. Matt Forte is a special big man. He does everything well and that’s everything bad for Jacksonville. I like the Bears to win this one by a touchdown (because, honestly, they haven’t played well over the last half of the season either). They’re still better than the Jags.

Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (NOTE AT THE END OF THIS PARAGRAPH) I can’t bet on the Lions at home. I’m telling you, for a team like Detroit, playing at home isn’t a good thing. You have a stadium that is half empty if you know what I mean, and that empty half is hoping to watch a little piece of history – they are there at the expense of the winless team on the field. Minnesota has a rushing attack good enough to crush the Lions defensive front, and Gus, Bernard, and company do enough through the air to take advantage if Detroit lines up 15 in the box. This game still means a ton to the Vikings, and it’s not like playing in a dome is going to bother them all that much. Daunte Culpepper can’t feel good about going up against that defensive front. They cause lots of injuries and get after quarterbacks like it’s their job. And it is. I expect the Vikings to win by 21-28 points. It will be that bad. The Vikings only won by 2 last time out, and that game should have been the Lions only win, and I’m being dead honest. But this game will be different, you can bet on that. (Okay, here it goes, a few minutes after finishing my write-ups and publishing them, I saw that the defensive tackle Williams guys won’t be suiting up for the remainder of the season. Don’t worry, I’m not off of this game, I’ll hold true to my 9, because, well, that’s the way it goes. My advice is to wait on this game though. With those guys out it might come down to 7 points – and I like the Vikings even more at that price. Good luck, but remember, the Vikes just lost 2 All-Pro players, two of the best players on their team, and they play the same position. Somebody will step up for the Vikes, but it’s just a lucky week to have the Lions.)

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): The Texans are 1-5 on the road, with their one win coming against a Cleveland Browns team that finds ways to lose football games. I like the Texans, I think they are a talented team with a bright future, and if they could just get over their road woes and turnover happy quarterbacking, they could be a pretty good team. But the Packers know how to make the most out of turnovers and special teams blunders, and that should be the difference on Sunday. I imagine it will be cold and miserable in Green Bay, and that doesn’t bode will for the Houston Texans chances on the road. The Texans will be coming of the high of a Monday Night Football win in front of everyone, and that, going along with the short week, will probably get them down a little bit. Green Bay is a pretty complete team (besides their rush defense) and I think they have a nice advantage over the Texans because Houston hasn’t beat a complete team all year long. Jacksonville, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami – the Dolphins are easily the best of those five, but not one of those teams strong on offense and defense. The Packers make big plays defensively, and while they give up a lot of yards, it will be those big plays that get them a double digit home win over Houston.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: The Bengals are winless on the road this season, but then again they have one single win, so that’s almost a given. The Bengals have actually played some pretty tough games. They were outmatched by Baltimore’s defense, but all in all they played pretty well against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville – and that’s three of the last four games. The Colts don’t have a stellar defense, and Indy has found ways to play tight with many teams this year, (they’ve won one single game by more than 6 points. I know the Bengals are bad, but it’s not like Indy has been at the top of their game either. Sure, they’ve won 5 straight, but in the last two they won by 3 and 4 disrespectively against teams like San Diego and Cleveland. Not only that, but they should have lost last week to the Browns – you know how I feel about taking teams that should have lost.

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints have given up 20 or more points in every single game they’ve played in this season. When the Falcons have scored at lest 20 points, they are 8-1 (they lost one game scoring 20 against Denver). I haven’t bought in to the Falcons much, and they’ve been killing me because of it. I’m still not completely sure about them, I’m a stubborn bastard, but if you know one thing, you know I don’t think too much of the Saints. Atlanta is the much tougher team and that keeps Drew Brees off the field. This game should be a tight one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints pulled out with a split of this season series, but the side to play is Atlanta, especially with that extra half point.

Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: I’d love to take the Giants again – they are a very good football team. But I found +9 on Monday Night, and the Eagles have too much talent to get killed in this game. They also consistently play tight with good football teams, and who knows, maybe they figured it out after Thanksgiving’s destruction of Arizona. I know the Giants don’t have those 3 days of extra rest like Philly, and I know they will be even more exhausted after the Plaxico fiasco. The Giants have been playing great football, but they should come down off their high horse a little against the Eagles. I’ll take the Eagles and 9.

Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: I like the Titans to win this game, but coming off a huge win against the worst team in the league, they might be a little bit full of themselves coming home to play a flailing Browns team. The Titans are the better team, no doubt, but they play a lot of close games, and the Browns run defense can be pretty good. Going up against one of the league’s best, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a spirited performance out of that group, and I doubt Cleveland will take a lot of chances with Ken Dorsey at the helm. Less chances means less mistakes, and that’s good when you’re playing the Titans. Tennessee grinds it out, and that means they need help to outscore their opponents by more than two touchdowns. Now I’ve seen some shady tackling out of the Browns this year, but I’ve also seen some well played football. They played well enough defensively to keep Peyton Manning struggling all game long, he looked as bad as I’ve seen him last week. Shaun Rodgers is a beast. I like the Browns and all those points.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): After losing to the 49ers, I like the Bills to rebound. They sure haven’t played well lately, but neither have the Dolphins for that matter. For the same reason as those teams that play the Lions and then struggled, I think the Dolphins will hit the breaks after dabbling with the Rams. Miami couldn’t dominate a bad team once again, and their last 4 weeks have done more to make me question the Dolphins than to fall in love with them. 2 points wins at home against Seattle and Oakland are basically losses in my mind. Then they get crushed by Matt Cassel and the Patriots – and a 4 point win in St. Louis definitely puts up some red-flags. The Bills have really struggled, no doubt, but they played tight with the Jets, Patriots, Browns, killed the Chiefs, and pissed away their game against the Niners. Even if Edwards is out, I think Losman keeps the field open for their running game. Look for Lee Evans to get lost in the Dolphins secondary and end up in the end zone once or twice.

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: Unlike most teams, the Chiefs won’t abandon the run. And that factor will keep them in this game. The Broncos don’t like to play well against bad teams, that seems to be their season-long weakness, and I don’t think that changes in this game. The Chiefs have played good football over the last half of the season, losing big just once in their last 6 games. They only have 2 wins, I understand that, but their 6-6 ATS mark is an example of the way they’ve been playing. The Broncos are coming off a season high last week when they tortured the Jets secondary and won big in New York. Season highs are bound to be followed by less than stellar performances, look at the history of such outings. I’ll take the Chiefs.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: I don’t see the value in San Francisco here. I like the 49ers – heck, I like them a lot. They’ve played good football lately, and honestly, they have a chance to cover this spread. But the chance isn’t that good in my opinion, and just about 100% of the public agrees with me. I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset. However, I think the Jets can do enough defensively to stymie the 49ers rushing attack. And putting all that pressure on Shaun Hill seems like a losing battle from SF’s perspective. New York should play better after getting embarrassed by the Broncos. My side is on that happening.

St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: I sure hate the Rams, and I like the Cardinals, but Arizona hasn’t shown me that they are a two touchdown favorite type team. Steven Jackson is back, and he gives the Rams a little bit more of an identity. Orlando Pace might return as well, and he could give Bulger just enough time to score a couple times. I think Arizona will run the ball a little more than usual against the Rams, because St. Louis’s run defense is brutal, and that should cause for longer drives and less points. I’ll take the HUGE dog here.

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): A little too much Dallas love for me here. The Steelers are the better team. They aren’t as dinged, and if that’s not enough, they are just flat out better than the Cowboys. So, if a field goal wins it for me, I’ll take it with a smile.

New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: The Patriots need to win to keep their playoff veins pumping blood. The Seahawks don’t need to do anything except continue to disappoint their lame-duck coach. I think Seattle is better than 2-9, but they aren’t as good as the Patriots – not at home, and certainly not when the prime time game was taken out of that National TV spotlight because they are so bad. If that’s not a confidence killer I don’t know what is. The Hawks got killed by Dallas, but prior to that they had played 3 straight solid games with close losses to Miami, Arizona, and Washington. I think New England will have the upper hand in this one, even with the extra rest for Seattle, the Patriots should win by a touchdown.

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are a great team when they can run with ease. You can’t do that against the Bucs. Tampa Bay dominated the Panthers last time these two teams played, and while normally I’d like to look for the home and home split in this situation, I just don’t think this is a good match-up for the Panthers. Getting a half point more than a field goal makes me feel that much better, too. On Monday Night Football, I’m willing to bet the Bucs wily old vets do work and win this game on the road.