Monthly Archives: September 2009

Fantasy Focus REVIEW: Week 1

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This is where I review everything I predicted from my fantasy focus article every week. It’s pretty easy to follow, always feel free to write in if you have any questions. As for my fantasy predictions in Week 1, some good, some bad, just like my fantasy teams. I’ve graded out each fantasy pick, and as you’ll see, I killed my sleeper picks for Week 1.

See how everyone did with Week 1’s overall positional rankings (PPR) listed next to each player’s name from Team Lucky Lester’s Week 1 projections below. Some hits and misses for all, no doubt, but naturally, I came out ahead of the group…

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – He finished 10th prior to Monday Night’s action, 17 fantasy points, they got way down early…. B-
2. Tom Brady – Tom started slow but ended up with 376 yards and 2 TDs. The guy is a sniper. A
3. Larry Fitzgerald – 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD: Not terrible, but worst than I expected, that offense was bad on Sunday. B
4. Randy Moss – Randy may have not caught any TDs, but his 12 catches for 141 yards totaled 26 fantasy points. Not bad. A
5. Brian Westbrook – Westy had just 15 fantasy points in a decent amount of action. The Eagles D was scoring too much for Eagle offensive players to light up the fantasy boards. B-

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I thought he’d grab 10, he grabbed 2. F
2. Reggie Bush –Reggie had 7 fantasy points, not getting into the scoring fun against the Lions. F
3. Ray Rice – Ray didn’t get involved in the passing game too much, but still had 13 fantasy points after rushing for over 100. B
4. Joseph Addai – He wasn’t too efficient, but scored and had just under 80 total yards. 5 catches were nice to see. 16 pts. B+
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Matt was #4 overall going into Monday, tossing for 279 yards and 3 TDs (2 ints as well). 22 pts. A

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – Donnie had 6 receptions for 46 yards, but lost a fumble too, finishing with 8 fantasy points. C-
2. Julius Jones – Jones was huge today (117 rushing yards and a score to go with 2 catches for 19 yards), most of it came on one huge run, but you can’t really take that away from him. A
3. Tim Hightower – I’m glad I got my hands on Hightower in some leagues, he caught 12 balls for 121 yards – 25 pts. A
4. Mark Sanchez – 272 yards, a TD and an INT – nice game for the rookie in a big win. Decent fantasy day. B
5. Nate Burleson – 2 fantasy points like ESPN projected? Ha. 7 grabs for 74 yards and a TD. Nate posted 20 pts for my team. A

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – 247 yards, 0 TDs, 2 ints… You’re welcome for this sit. A
2. Clinton Portis – 16 rushes for 60 yards. 1 catch for 10 yards. Could have been worse, but are you angry I told you to sit him? B
3. Willie Parker – 13 rushes for 19 yards. 1 catch for 5 yards. You’re welcome for this one too. A
4. Devin Hester – 4 catches for 90 yards and a nice long touchdown. Yeah, I was dead wrong about Devin. F
5. Hines Ward – 8 grabs for 103 yards was a good day, and even with the fumble he still put up 16 pts. Solid day. Sorry. F+

PS – I hope you didn’t start Marshawn Lynch like 33% of ESPN Leagues….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning 9	1.Tom Brady 4		1.Drew Brees 1		1.Tom Brady 4
2.Drew Brees 1		2.Drew Brees 1		2.Peyton Manning 9	2.Drew Brees 1
3.Tom Brady 4		3.Matt Ryan 8		3.Chad Pennington 26	3.Peyton Manning 9
4.Jay Cutler 25		4.Aaron Rodgers	13	4.Donovan McNabb 7	4.Aaron Rodgers 13
5.Phillip Rivers 15	5.Peyton Manning 9	5.Kyle Orton 14 	5.Matt Schaub 31

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson 1	1.Adrian Peterson 1	1.Michael Turner 46	1.DeAngelo Williams 11
2.DeAngelo Williams 11	2.DeAngelo Williams 11	2.Adrian Peterson 1	2.Brian Westbrook 15
3.Steven Jackson 43	3.Matt Forte 48		3.LaD. Tomlinson 30	3.Maurice Jones Drew 6
4.Ray Rice 20		4.Reggie Bush 31	4.Frank Gore 10		4.Adrian Peterson 1
5.Willie Parker	65	5.Knowshon Moreno 69	5.Ryan Grant 19		5.Ronnie Brown 34

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson	52	1.Calvin Johnson 35	1.Steve Smith 61	1.Randy Moss 3
2.Reggie Wayne 1	2.Terrell Owens	56	2.Reggie Wayne 1	2.Larry Fitzgerald 10
3.Randy Moss 3		3.Steve Smith 61	3.Marques Colston 33	3.Reggie Wayne 1
4.Vincent Jackson 18	4.Andre Johnson 52	4.Randy Moss 3		4.Andre Johnson 52
5.Calvin Johnson 35	5.Wes Welker 8		5.Eddie Royal 77	5.Greg Jennings 4

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates	12	1.Jason Witten 13	1.Dallas Clark 21	1.Dallas Clark 21
2.Jason Witten 13	2.Antonio Gates	12	2.Tony Gonzalez	4	2.Antonio Gates 12
3.Dallas Clark 21	3.Dallas Clark 21	3.Antonio Gates	12	3.Jason Witten 13
4.Greg Olsen 40		4.John Carlson 1	4.Owen Daniels 16	4.Zach Miller 7
5.Dustin Keller	12	5.Brandon Petitgrew 00	5.Jason Witten 13	5.John Carlson 1

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens 21		1.Ravens 21		1.Giants 3		1.Vikings 8
2.Steelers 9		2.Cowboys 29		2.Ravens 21		2.Ravens 21
3.Giants 3		3.Seahawks 4		3.Chargers 16		3.Cowboys 29
4.Patriots 24		4.Redskins 26		4.Saints 13		4.Giants 3
5.Bengals 12		5.Patriots 24		5.Steelers 9		5.Bengals 12

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We still don't care about kickers, but these guys were the Top 5 point producers...

1. Neil Rackers 2. Lawrence Tynes 3. Nick Folk 4. Jason Hanson 5. Joe Nedney

Looking back at the week's action.. Drew Brees was the #1 overall QB if averaged
out amongst our picks. The #1 overall running back was Adrian Peterson. So, as a
group, we got two right on the button. The #1 overall receiver, Reggie Wayne, was a
Top 3 receiving options on 3 writer's lists, making him the highest pre-rated receiver
on our boards as well. So, while none of us picked everything right, our highest
averaged players at the 3 key positions all finished #1 for the week. Now that's good
work. TE was a little bit different as only one guy, Red-Red Ryan Kauffman even had
John Carlson, this week's #1 TE, on his board. As for defenses, we all missed out on
the Eagles, who just happened to put up one of the all time great defensive point
scoring shows of all time on the unsuspecting Panthers. At least we didn't expect it.
What about the worst picks on our lists? Papa Weimer's WR chart had some issues as #1
Steve Smith had a terrible day, almost as bad as his #5 Eddie Royal. Arse's picks of
Steven Jackson and Willie Parker hurt his RB respect, and Andre Johnson as his #1
busted him, and everyone besides Papa. Ronnie Brown sure looked average in my Top 5,
and Matt Schaub finished well out of the Top 15 as well. Papa, Arse and I took big
chances putting Orton, Pennington, and Schaub in our Top 5 lists, none of which pay
off, making us look bad with 9, 8, and 4 points a piece. Obviously I looked the worst
in that gong show. We all picked the Ravens to finish either 1 or 2, they finished 21.
Who did we miss? Tony Romo and Joe Flacco went 2 and 3 for QBs in Week 1. Both went
unpicked by our four fantasy writers. Hasselbeck and Trent Edwards finished 5th and
6th respectively. Nobody picked the top defense (Philadelphia) to finish in the Top 5.
Nobody picked the second ranked defense (Atlanta) either.

Keeping score for week 1! This is the positional breakdown based on Week 1's rankings:

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

1.QBs 2         	1.QBs 1		        1.QBs 3  		1.QBs 4
2.RBs 3		        2.RBs 4	   	        2.RBs 2                 2.RBs 1
3.WRs 2		        3.WRs 4		        3.WRs 3         	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 4  		4.TEs 3          	4.TEs 2         	4.TEs 1
5.DST 2         	5.DST 4         	5.DST 1         	5.DST 3

Week 1 Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

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Here we are, breaking down Week 1’s action and how it’s going to effect you moving forward. Here are 10 things that caught my attention in this weekend’s entertaining action…

The Giants did alright throwing the ball sans Mr. Burress. But things aren’t quite how I thought they’d be coming out of Week 1. Dominik Hixon caught one pass while Hakeem Nicks looks to be out after injuring his foot early in the contest. There goes my #2 and #3 options going into Week 1, or so I figure. Who does that leave? Well, Steve Smith got plenty of targets, but he’s probably taken. Mario Manningham however, well, he looked explosive to me. He’s worth a shot going forward. Young, fast, athletic, no sure fire starters keeping him off the field, promising first round pick out a couple weeks? Yes please…..   Richard Seymour was a beast on Monday Night Football action in a Raiders uniform. Many think that was a dumb trade by the Raiders, sending out a first round pick for Seymour, but this guy is a difference maker. He’s going to give the Raiders huge plays, make their run defense better, and keep their secondary from having to cover receivers any longer than 5 seconds. He takes pressure off of everyone. Now that might not mean much to you, because the Raiders aren’t getting many defensive starts this season, however, with Jerrod Mayo going down for the Patriot, and Seymour getting traded, I think the Patriots are becoming more and more vulnerable defensively. They got a first round pick in 2011, but what about winning a championship this season? What about the Patriots as a fantasy DST? I’m looking for better options…..   Two of the biggest off-season movers, Terrell Owens and Jay Cutler, both had pretty forgettable opening day’s for their new squads. TO dropped a pass (weird) and had his team fall in last minute fashion to the Patriots while Jay Cutler did Jay Cutler things, managing 4 interceptions to his single touchdown pass – a nice one to Devin Hester. I would buy low if you have the chance, but if you own these guys, hold tight, both have better days to come. Trent Edwards looked solid, and there’s a good chance Jay’s receivers will get on his page soon enough….   After Week 1, Adrian Peterson leads all running backs in fantasy land – that isn’t crazy, what is crazy is that Tim Hightower, Thomas Jones, Julius Jones, Fred Jackson, and Willis McGahee finish off the Top 6. Of those four, I’m not sure if Fred Jackson, or McGahee have a chance to keep it up, considering their future situations sharing time in the backfield, but both could be decent spot starters – Fred because he’s only done good things when given the chance, and McGahee because he’s seemingly getting goal line action. And my spidey senses tell me that Tim Hightower won’t be racking up double digit catches game in and game out, but I’ve said for a while, he’s a steal and he’ll be a solid contributor. Thomas and Julius, the brothers’ Jones, have a chance to keep racking up big time fantasy points. Every week Julius will get more comfortable with Seattle’s new blocking scheme, and Thomas will get his chances behind that very solid Jets offensive line….    Jake Delhomme pulled off the amazing this Sunday against Philadelphia, he managed to get double digit fantasy points… In the negative. Yes, Jake turned the ball over enough times to get him in -11 in one of my leagues. Now, most leagues he probably got closer to -8, but still, brutal. Jake took a seat in the second half, and Steve Smith owners can only hope that Jake’s last two performances (accounting for 9 interceptions and just 1 TD) are back to back outliers. I’m thinking they are, and these two should get back to decent totals next week against the Falcons. But maybe that’s because I’m a Smith owner…..  Drew Brees has one of the quickest releases in football. His accuracy is amazing, and his eye for the game, the way he plays defenses like puppets, is almost poetic. But dirty and tough and footbally. For a guy that has absolutely no physical advantage, the whole thing truly is amazing. The way Drew can escape pressure for a second, turn his body, reset his feet, and release the ball with pin-point accuracy is amazing. Never known as a speedy guy, I’m not sure there’s another guy that is quicker resetting and throwing than Brees. Those that reached out and grabbed Drew early, I’m sure you’re happy with your Week 1 win…..  Laurence Maroney tallied more carries than any other Patriot RB despite being 4th on the depth chart. He didn’t kill it though, averaging just over 3 yards per carry on 10 attempts. Fred Taylor had 9 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Kevin Faulk carried the ball once or twice. Sammy Morris didn’t get an attempt. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Maroney is the upside play, and worth a roster spot most likely, but I’m not sure having any Pat running back is a dreamy situation…..   Donovan McNabb broke a rib on Sunday when a defensive player kneed him in the back about 2 seconds after he got into the end-zone. Personally, I think he’ll play, but we’ll see. I still think the Eagles will be productive in his absence, but Jeff Garcia’s signing makes me think that those of you holding on to Mike Vick really need to find a new person to fill that roster spot. I’m not a Vick hater, quite the contrary, I think the guy deserves a second chance and definitely hope he gets his career back on track. However, if the Eagles have Kevin Kolb, and in a week will get Vick back, why would they go get Garcia? I know, because they don’t think Vick will be able to run this team from the QB position, even if McNabb goes down for a considerable period of time. Let Vick go non-dynasty-leaguers, let him go…..   Byron Leftwich, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez really impressed me this week, but only one of those guys really surprised me. Flacco is quite good, a much better thrower than many people think, and I think he puts up solid numbers this season, but I thought that all along. Sanchez has very mature feet, especially for a young kid with 1 year of college starting experience, and he’ll keep the Jets in winning situations, but I thought that all along. Byron Leftwich is tough as hell, stares into the face of defenses, and will step up to complete a ball in the face of the rush, and while I knew that, I didn’t think he’d throw the ball as well as he did against the Cowboys. He’s always been a winner, but I think Byron can be a fantasy contributor this season. Why? Well, that offensive line is very good, the running backs are equally as talented, and very deep – and a group of pass catchers that include Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, Michael Clayton, and Sammie Stroughter is good enough when teams have to pay so much attention to the run. Byron is rosterable….    Ten of the Top 16 pre-ranked fantasy receivers (ESPN) managed single digit fantasy points, that means guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Terrell Owens and more didn’t help fantasy owners in Week 1. This is why picking receivers high isn’t the best move in fantasy land. Receivers are a fickle and inconsistent bunch. I still like these guys, but on any given week the best receivers will get you next to nothing – where even mediocre running backs will keep you in the game. Until next week!

Week 1 NFL Picks REVIEW

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Let us just say that the first week of football picks was good for me – and I hope it was good for you too. I didn’t have everything go my way, but there was a lot of lucky stuff that luckily helped out my free football picks. I started with a big win Thursday Night, then busted out 9 more wins on Sunday, getting me into double digits before Monday Night’s double header. Where did I go right or steer you wrong? Follow me…

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) “a hard nosed game, that promises to be an ugly smash mouth defensive battle, has me thinking 6 is just too much. Last year’s Super Bowl winners usually aren’t very good beginners – write that down. Their offensive line isn’t great, and that’s enough for me to take Tennessee on opening night.” I read this game pretty well. I think the Titans outplayed the Steelers big time early, but they didn’t score enough on the chances they got as Rob Bironas’s missed field goals killed the. Still, the Steelers didn’t do enough early to capitalize on Tennessee’s missed chances, putting this game into overtime, and guaranteeing me, at the very least, a push. A short field goal for Pittsburgh won the game, and gave me a victory to start off the season as well.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) Basically everything I said I thought about this game was right on the dot except for Knowshon being dynamic from the get go. Moreno looked like a college running back out there, not trusting holes and being a little rusty. But the Broncos defense was very good, much tougher and more aggressive than last season. Carson Palmer was healthy enough to play, but just as I said, not quite back to his old touchdown slinging self. A couple more weeks and I might be leading that bandwagon, but not quite yet. The Broncos got a late miracle to get a win in this one, but they were never in the covering question. Their stellar defensive performance locked that up.

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland Browns:  (WINNER!) Despite the public loving this bet, I believed as well. I didn’t bet the house, but felt pretty good going in despite the line feeling too good to be true. Like the rest of you, I got a win in this one.

New York Jets (+5) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER)  “Mark Sanchez is the real deal. He has great feet, watch him, his confidence in the pocket is awesome. That offensive line is one of the top 5 units in football, and I haven’t even gotten to talking about the Jets defense yet. They may be missing Calvin Pace, but with David Harris and Bart Scott at linebacker, and Kris Jenkins protecting them, I think this team has plenty of playmakers and ball hawks to make some big plays happen. The Texans won’t be able to run, and the Jets will. That’s why I’m taking the points.” Well the Texans couldn’t run, the Jets could, and Mark had great poise, confidence, and strength in the pocket. I think Pete Carrol was wrong, Mark made a good decision coming out of college.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7): (LOSS) I thought this line was too good to be true in favor of the improved Jaguars – so I picked the Colts, basically over-thinking the entire thing. I had one too many thoughts on this one. The Colts as a big favorite in a game that was usually close – what was I thinking? Took my first L of the week in Indy.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) I liked Dallas to win by double digits on the road here, and they did – but watching this game was a different story. I thought the Bucs played really well, much closer than the final score signified, and Leftwich was pretty solid as well. Caddy Williams was awesome, and there’s no single player I root for more than Carnell. The Cowboys used some really big plays to down the Bucs, but some luck easily could have turned this game around, and I can only imagine this being a tough loss for those that took the Bucs. That being said, I’ve lost my fair share of those ones, and I can’t feel too bad about getting the win here. Romo’s numbers were awesome, and this Cowboys team definitely has a lot of game breaking ability.

Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) “I’m such a baby, the Dolphins make me cry…” This game wasn’t very close, it was very weird. Neither team looked good doing what they do. Atlanta didn’t run it that well, and Miami just couldn’t get anything going. It was a pretty ugly game, but Tony Gonzalez definitely made his presence felt. I thought all along that his “not going to be a big part of the offense, but whatever is best for the team” quotes during camp were a little ridiculous, and he was the leading offensive asset for the Falcons on Sunday. I didn’t get a very good feel for either of these teams on Sunday, so I’m back to the drawing board for both.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-13): (WINNER) I’m really, really lucky to get a win in this one. There’s not much else to say about it. Todd Haley knows what he’s doing. His team is going to be a good one in the next couple years, no doubt in my mind. A late touchdown and another late add-on put the Ravens two scores up, but KC played better than that, and I know I could write a tear-filled Bad Beats column about this one if I were on the Chiefs side of the fence. But like I said, I’ll take a win, as ugly as a win can be.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): (LOSS) I love the Eagles this season, really, I do. But I won’t love them against one of the best rushing attacks in the league until they do something or prove something with that front seven. They couldn’t stop the run this pre-season as I watched opponents run freely over the Eagles. Philly should put up a lot of points, and I fully understand that the Panthers have no interior defensive line either – but the Panthers will fully take advantage of that while the Eagles instead decide to throw the ball 4 out of every 5 downs… Just in this match-up, I like the underdog, hometown, returning best record in the NFC. Call me crazy. The Eagles just have too much hype for me.

Detroit Lions (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) This is another game that was a heck of a lot closer than people might think. If Stafford doesn’t toss a million interceptions, the Lions cover easily. New Orleans toyed with the rookie, and maybe, just possibly, showed me they might have enough defense to make some noise this season. Or maybe it was just the rookie? We’ll see. All I know is that Drew Brees has amazingly quick feet in the pocket. The way he evades the rush, resets his feet, and fires all at the same time is very impressive. So many times, that one extra move bought him just enough time to get a TD throw off. Impressive. I still like the Lions as a double digit dog,  but maybe I’m giving Stafford too much credit. He has yet to impress me as an NFL player, but I still like the Lions to cover their fair share of games this year.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: (WINNER) The Niners dominated a lot of this game, and were never really in a situation where I was worried about covering. Anything can happen any time, don’t get me wrong, but I liked the 49ers for lots of reason, one of which was their toughness and will. The Cardinals defense was much better than I thought they’d be, and looking back at it, that makes sense. Dockett is a beast in the middle, Dansby is elite at LB, and they have a pretty strong secondary as well, not to mention plenty of other good defensive players. However, just like I said, the offensive timing and production was bad most of this game. Where was the gun-slinger deep throws and chances? Warner spent more time throwing crappy short passes than anything else. If it was SF’s scheme, then kudos to them – whatever it was, the Niners pulled a nice upset and gave me another W.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ New York Giants: (WINNER) I don’t think the Giants are scary enough offensively to bust the Skins through the air. Washington will get more pressure on opposing offenses this season as Haynesworth really is that good. Al will also help ease the pain against one of the best offensive lines in the league, and I think Washington stacks the line against the Giants in this game. I think 6.5 is too much in a game that looks to have very few scoring opportunities.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): (WINNER) “Its hard for me to be too excited about the Rams, I called them the worst team in football last season, and despite the Lions hideous record, I stand by that claim. There was no team that was more pathetic than this Rams team a year ago. They no longer have Orlando Pace, but Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg at the edges instead. They don’t have Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce, but Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery. Steven Jackson is still there, but unfortunately still is Marc Bulger. The guy kills more drives by hanging onto the ball than any QB I know. The defense is aging and hurting (like Leonard Little) and failed draft picks over the last couple years are coming back to haunt the new regime. That being said, it’s still 8.5 in Week 1 against a Hawks team that hasn’t proven to be beastly quite yet. I’m going on record and saying this spread is too high. It’s bad value, and I don’t know what I’m thinking by taking the Hawks anyway. It’s one of those times where I just have that feeling…” Hey, I went with my feeling despite reading a bad value. The Hawks are back, and looked very good after a shaky start to the game. I expect Housh to me more involved as the season moves forward, and I even think Julius will continue to put up solid numbers, especially as the offensive line gets healthy. I didn’t expect this big of a win, but the Hawks defense absolutely shut down the Rams. A big Hawks win made me undefeated in afternoon games. Lets keep that going!

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): (WINNER) This game was just plain weird. Cutler and Rodgers were off, Jay more than Aaron, their were lots of drops, neither running game looked good, and while both these teams have talented defenses, I’m not sure they’re that good. Still, the Packers had more balls – that’s right, they took more chances, played the smarter game, and in the end beat the Bears, something they haven’t done all that much over the last five seasons. A close cover, might have gone either way, luckily Jay Cutler did a lot of Jay Cutler type things. Going into Monday Night, I rocked double digit wins.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5): (LOSER) I was pretty impressed with just about everything the Bills did. Even the last play, Leodis just gave too much effort. He was stupid to take the ball out of the end-zone anyway, but once he got it out, he took a big hit, stayed on his feet, and just got stripped barely by the 3rd guy that hit him. His extra effort probably lost the Bills the game. One thing is certain, Richard Seymour’s going to be missed on that defensive front. He was a beast in the Raiders game, one of the best players on the field. Jerrod Mayo is injured as well, and I’m not sure Pats fans will like the diagnosis tomorrow. The Bills should have won this game, but Tom Brady is a winner. Nothing was more perfect than Tom walking up the field with 1:18 on the clock and ticking: he was just relaxed as could be, looking like a guy walking on the beach. He knew. The Pats obviously didn’t cover, and I take my 5th and final loss of the week.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9): (WINNER) “This line will likely move to 10 if you wait. Oh well, I still like the underdogs in this divisional match-up. I know, the Chargers get to show up and win, they can sleep through the season and easily take the division, and they have more talent in 5 positions than the Raiders have all over the field. I don’t care. What I care about is that the Raiders will be able to run enough to keep themselves in it.” The Raiders are going to win some games this year. They gave the Chargers all they could handle and more. JaMarcus Russell needs to be a lot more accurate if the Raiders want to get out of the cellar, but there’s lots of talent on this Oakland team. Zach Miller played like a stud, and McFadden/Michael Bush looked good as a powerful 1-2 punch in the backfield. Oakland pulled ahead with a ballsy 4th and 15 TD pass late in the 4th, but Phillip Rivers and company drove down the field and Darren Sproles polished off the victory for San Diego. It was much tougher than many expected. Just about how I thought it would be, but then again, that’s why I call ’em! 11-5 this week, folks. Lets keep it going in Week 2!!!

Week 2 NCAA Picks REVIEW

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Week 2 was a little more kind to me with my free college football picks, and while not the back to even come back I was looking for, some good things happened for me early in the week, bringing some wins my way. It wasn’t all gravy though. This is how the wins and losses accumulated to a flat even tie (ugh).

Clemson Tigers (+5.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: (WINNER) Some people are trying to tell me I’m lucky for covering this game… Please, Georgia Tech was lucky to score those early freak touchdowns in the first quarter or they would have had no chance to win this one. Clemson had some really bad luck early, then showed what they were made of by pretty much shutting down the Jackets over the final three quarters. A field goal ended up getting GT the win late, but it was just 3 points, and I won anyway, despite the freak touchdowns on back to back fake field goals. As my good buddy Josh said, “I’ve never seen a team score two touchdowns on back to back fake field goals, and the fact that they were on either side of the ball for each one, that’s just crazy.” Crazy indeed.

Central Michigan Chippewas (+14.5) @ Michigan State Spartans: (WINNER) “I know, I’m nuts, but I like the Chipps to get awfully close to pulling off this upset. I like a lot of what Central Michigan has. I love their QB, the kid is a winner. Central Michigan has either won, or lost by less than 14 points in 19 of their last 20 games. I know the Spartans are solid, but the only team that beat the Chipps by more than two touchdowns last season was Georgia. State isn’t that kind of good.” What can I say, I hit this one right on the chin. I still can’t believe the Chipps won the game. I must admit, I’m a victim of early evacuation in this one, I left the game after the Chipps missed on their two point conversion attempt. But some how, they pulled it off. Obviously the cover wasn’t in question, but it was nice to see Dan and his guys get a win. They didn’t just get awfully close to pulling the upset, they made it happen.

North Carolina (-4) @ Connecticut Huskies: (LOSS) Carolina couldn’t do anything offensively, which really surprises me. This game didn’t look good, but NC found a way to get the win, just not by enough to make me a winner. I’m not sure what to take from this game – I don’t think NC’s offensive attack is that poor and I don’t think UConn’s D is that good – so should I just write this off as an aberration? I’ll look into it. I know that those 12 fourth quarter points shows me a lot about a team in terms of getting a win no matter what.

Stanford Cardinal @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-3): (WINNER) “The Cardinal really struggled on the road last season, tallying their only road win at Washington (and the Huskies didn’t even win one single game). I think that trend continues. I also think the Deacons came out slow last week, and while a late push made that game a game, the couldn’t quite pull it out. One of the sharpest tossers in the game, Riley Skinner, threw three picks last week. He won’t throw one this Saturday, and that should be enough to get Wake Forrest in the win column.” The Cardinals didn’t get a road win. Skinner didn’t throw an interception. But the Deacons got off slow again, but Stanford’s road woes haunted them just enough to let Wake back in it. Down 17-3 at half time, Wake put up 21 unanswered points in the 2nd half, including two touchdowns in the 4th quarter, getting me my 3rd win in four chances.

Syracuse Orange @ Penn State Nittany Lions (-28.5): (LOSS) I don’t know what to say. It was 28-0, but Penn State didn’t score nearly as much as they should have. They gave up a late score to Syracuse, giving me no chance to cover. I should have known that 28.5 was too much. Penn State needs to get stronger running the ball or they’ll be in trouble against big teams.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3) @ Michigan Wolverines: (LOSS) This game was back and fourth, and ND easily could have been the team to pull this one out, but Michigan’s freshmen were dynamic, tough nosed, and stepped up really big to take out the Irish. I must say, I haven’t been happier about a loss in my picks. This whole “Irish undefeated” talk, or “ND to a BCS Bowl Game” jazz was making me a little sick to my stomach. Now we can let that crap die.

East Carolina Pirates (+6.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: (LOSS) After being down just 21-20 at half time, I liked my chances with the Pirates – however, despite plenty of opportunity, they just couldn’t put up points in the second half while West Virginia’s two touchdowns were plenty to hand me my third loss in a row.

BYU Cougars (-17.5) @ Tulane Green Wave: (WINNER)  “I don’t like that over 75% of the bets are taking BYU. I don’t like that BYU pulled a huge upset over #3 Oklahoma last weekend. I don’t like a lot of things about this. But one of the most important don’t likes just happens to be how I feel about the Tulane Green Wave football team. I’m not sure if BYU will have their stud RB Unga back, but they should find running the ball a lot easier this week. They win this game by 3 touchdowns or more. That’s a cover.” 54-3… Like I said, there were lots of things I didn’t like about this game, but my feelings for Tulane trumped all that “sharp” stuff and I took the heavily favored Cougs. Good move on my part, huh? I must say, I was a little worried when BYU was up just 3-0 after 1… But I was pretty sure of the cover up 17 at half time. The Cougs are pretty solid.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-2) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) “Fade east of the mountains in Washington State. What can I say, after the passion the Huskies played with last week, I can’t say, fade Washington State teams anymore, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t fade THE Washington State team.” That’s all that needs to be said, unless a really heavy line in the Cougs favor shows up, you can bet your dollar that they’ll be in my Top 10 picks section next time they play. What a brutal program right now.

Oregon State Beavers (-7) @ UNLV Running Rebels: (LOSS) Up 20-7 after three, I thought I had this one pretty well in the bag. Rodgers was running all over the Rebels, just like I expected, and the Beavers were doing just enough through the air to take advantage of all the Rebel’s attention to the run. Then all of a sudden the game had changed, and UNLV was up one. A last second field goal kept the Beavers in the win column, but that didn’t do much for me, as an Oregon State loss put me at 5-5 for Week 2. Better than last week but still not good enough. Taking the next step next week!

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football

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Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.

PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning	1.Tom Brady		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees		2.Drew Brees		2.Peyton Manning	2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady		3.Matt Ryan		3.Chad Pennington	3.Peyton Manning
4.Jay Cutler		4.Aaron Rodgers		4.Donovan McNabb	4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Phillip Rivers	5.Peyton Manning	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Matt Schaub

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner	1.DeAngelo Williams
2.DeAngelo Williams	2.DeAngelo Williams	2.Adrian Peterson	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Steven Jackson	3.Matt Forte		3.LaDainian Tomlinson	3.Maurice Jones Drew
4.Ray Rice		4.Reggie Bush		4.Frank Gore		4.Adrian Peterson
5.Willie Parker		5.Knowshon Moreno	5.Ryan Grant		5.Ronnie Brown

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson		1.Calvin Johnson	1.Steve Smith		1.Randy Moss
2.Reggie Wayne		2.Terrell Owens		2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith		3.Marques Colston	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Vincent Jackson	4.Andre Johnson		4.Randy Moss		4.Andre Johnson
5.Calvin Johnson	5.Wes Welker		5.Eddie Royal		5.Greg Jennings

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates		1.Jason Witten		1.Dallas Clark		1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Antonio Gates		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Antonio Gates
3.Dallas Clark		3.Dallas Clark		3.Antonio Gates		3.Jason Witten
4.Greg Olsen		4.John Carlson		4.Owen Daniels		4.Zach Miller
5.Dustin Keller		5.Brandon Petitgrew	5.Jason Witten		5.John Carlson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Giants		1.Vikings
2.Steelers		2.Cowboys		2.Ravens		2.Ravens
3.Giants		3.Seahawks		3.Chargers		3.Cowboys
4.Patriots		4.Redskins		4.Saints		4.Giants
5.Bengals		5.Patriots		5.Steelers		5.Bengals

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.

Free College Football Picks: NCAA Week 2

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After a tough week, I look to get back on track with my free college football picks. Everybody has their ups and downs, and while I’m not saying I’m the best capper in the world, I am saying that I consistently win more than I lose. That, at the very least, deserves a little credit. Hopefully I can turn it around and pull at least 7 wins this week. Here’s my set of wagers…

Clemson Tigers (+5.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Clemson’s offensive and defensive lines are so very much underrated. The D-line is straight up fitly, and ranked 5th in the nation last season against the run. The offensive line is also tough, probably a top 15 group in the country. They may have a freshman quarterback, but they also have a very talented run game to give him a helping hand. They are a nice dog going into Georgia Tech on Thursday. Tech can really run the ball, and Nesbitt has shown the ability to make the big play through the air, but I like Clemson keeping it close. C.J. Spiller is one of the most dynamic players in college football, and is a real true threat to score the ball every time he touches it. The underdog struggled on Thursday night last season, as home teams dominated the time slot. I think that changes in this one as Clemson gets close to pulling the upset.

Central Michigan Chippewas (+14.5) @ Michigan State Spartans: I know, I’m nuts, but I like the Chipps to get awfully close to pulling off this upset. I like a lot of what Central Michigan has. I love their QB, the kid is a winner. Central Michigan has either won, or lost by less than 14 points in 19 of their last 20 games. I know the Spartans are solid, but the only team that beat the Chipps by more than two touchdowns last season was Georgia. State isn’t that kind of good. Thunder Dan and his Chipps took a 19-6 loss on the chin against Arizona in Week 1, they’ll show up to play against their instate competition.

North Carolina (-4) @ Connecticut Huskies: UConn’s new starting QB, Zach Frazer, threw 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions against Ohio last week in UConn’s easy win. Last year he completed just over half his passes while throwing just 2 TDs and 6 interceptions in 83 attempts. That’s 8 interception in about 100 throws. Carolina’s defense is not softy, and they’ll put enough pressure on Zach to up those INT numbers into double digits. And UNC can take advantage of those picks. I know the Tar Heels are heavily favored with the public (72%) but every once in a while the public gets one right. This is one of those times.

Stanford Cardinal @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-3): The Cardinal really struggled on the road last season, tallying their only road win at Washington (and the Huskies didn’t even win one single game). I think that trend continues. I also think the Deacons came out slow last week, and while a late push made that game a game, the couldn’t quite pull it out. One of the sharpest tossers in the game, Riley Skinner, threw three picks last week. He won’t throw one this Saturday, and that should be enough to get Wake Forrest in the win column.

Syracuse Orange @ Penn State Nittany Lions (-28.5): Greg Paulus was re-introduced to football last week, and he played well. But that was Minnesota, this is a whole different beast. The Nittany Lions didn’t lose at home last season. Not only did they not lose, but they absolutely throttled the competition. They have lots of talent on that team, stuff that will make Syracuse coaches cringe in the film room. Despite the poor value at 28.5, I still think this is a pretty good bet. With that extra half point, the books are really trying to get action on Syracuse – can’t trick me….

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3) @ Michigan Wolverines: I don’t think ND is that good, I just think they are barely better than the Wolverines. I’m sure Michigan has loads of young talent on that team, they have a coach that knows how to recruit and a program that draws big names. However, they also have a group of players that don’t like how much time they are putting in, likely have 10 freshmen starting, and even more getting minutes, and all this against a pretty mature Irish squad. I think this one is close, but 7-10 points in ND’s favor.

East Carolina Pirates (+6.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: The public is loving the Mountaineers in this one. But I see a lot to like about ECU. Despite the big names and elite speed playing for West Virginia, they didn’t look that impressive to me last week. The Pirates barely got by sub-division opponent Appalachian State, but that is a tough team no matter what division they are in, and in reality the Pirates were up 29-7 going into the 4th quarter of that contest. West Virginia struggled against Liberty. Yep, Liberty. ECU got a lot out of their running game, and I’m willing to bet that continues. It would not surprise me if the Pirates pulled an upset here, thus I’ll be happy to take the 6.5 points.

BYU Cougars (-17.5) @ Tulane Green Wave: I don’t like that over 75% of the bets are taking BYU. I don’t like that BYU pulled a huge upset over #3 Oklahoma last weekend. I don’t like a lot of things about this. But one of the most important don’t likes just happens to be how I feel about the Tulane Green Wave football team. I’m not sure if BYU will have their stud RB Unga back, but they should find running the ball a lot easier this week. They win cover this game by 3 touchdowns or more. That’s a cover.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-2) @ Washington State Cougars: Fade east of the mountains in Washington State. What can I say, after the passion the Huskies played with last week, I can’t say, fade Washington State teams anymore, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t fade THE Washington State team. The Cougars just keep getting wore. After cutting more than a couple starters last season, because they were clowns off the field, a few new players are in trouble already. Hawaii has to come a long way, and from Paradise to Pullman has to be tough on the Rainbow Warriors, but as far as plane rides go, this one isn’t a bad one for Hawaii. They aren’t great, but better than Wazzu is all you have to be to cover here.

Oregon State Beavers (-7) @ UNLV Running Rebels: The Beavers are one of the better teams in the Pac 10. The Rodgers brothers are beasts. Jacquizz is one of the more special talents in all of college football. He runs big. He’s really fast, and he’s sneaky good at this game. He’ll cover this spread. The Rebels have talent, but I think that OSU rushing attack will be too much.
Get them winners! Good luck this weekend!

College Football Review: Week 1

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Three and Seven, 3 and 7, 3 for 7, 3-7…. However you say it, look at it, write it – it looks bad. But I’ve had tougher weeks and always seem to fight back. I took Week 1 on the chin, but not for a lack of effort, here’s what I missed, or what went wrong, or how I was tricked…. Hopefully I can turn the tables next week.

Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos (OVER 64): LOSS – “While I like the Broncos to win, and likely cover the 4 point spread in this one, I like the OVER even more.” Lucky for me all I bet was the over. That gives me a loss. What I didn’t take into account was Oregon starting 4 new offensive linemen. That will mess up anyone’s offensive flow, even the Ducks. The Punch heard round the states put an interesting spin on this game, but the truth of the matter is the Broncos killed the Ducks. Kellen Moore was a sniper at the Q and the Ducks couldn’t find much room to run anywhere. Boise should have a scored a couple more TDs, shooting themselves in the foot more than a couple times. And the turnovers didn’t help the total – but in the end, Oregon just didn’t have enough to get even close to their side of the over.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: WINNER – “Gamecocks will get big contributions from freshman, a better season out of the quarterback position, and an upset win at NC State this Thursday Night.” I liked my chances at an upset win, didn’t think the Wolfpack would do much against that SC defense. At least one of my picks went right, get ready for a nice little downhill slide…

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6.5) @ Syracuse Orange: LOSS –  I thought I had this game well in hand early, the Orange were stinking and the Gophers were moving, but Greg Paulus started to remember how to play this game and the Orange put some points up, eventually sending this one into overtime. Tough deal, the Gophers couldn’t quite cover with an OT field goal to win it.

Baylor Bears @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-2.5): LOSS – A really tough start put the Deacons too far behind. They fought back late but lost a close one to the Bears. I expected accuracy from Riley, he threw a couple interceptions, and missed target on a few more. I still think Wake is a decent team to take this year.

BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners (-22): LOSS – I must admit, the offensive line change killed me this week, assuming Oregon would score points, and in this game as well – but I have to think that if Sam Bradford played, went into halftime, came out with a new plan of attack, this not only wouldn’t have been a loss for the Sooners, but possibly a cover. I expected an early struggle, but once they settled down I expected the Sooners to dominate. Well, even without their stud running back, the Cougars pulled off a big one, and I was on the wrong side of it.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: LOSS – the Hokies didn’t play nearly as well as they needed to, and I still thought I was going to get a win. Offensively they couldn’t hang, but I was only down three in the 4th quarter, and a defensive stop would have given me a much better chance at a W. But ‘Bama kept pushing past the smaller VT front, and scored again, and the Hokies lost by 10. Alabama just has too many big guy7s up frong

Maryland Terrapins (+21.5) @ California Golden Bears: LOSS –  The Bears ran all over the Terps, laughing at my claim that 21 was too high… I cried about it.

LSU Tigers (-17.5) @ Washington Huskies: LOSS –  There’s lots I could say about this game, but the bottom line is Washington is not the team they used to be. Fade Washington schools might have to be changed to fade WSU….

Mississippi Rebels (-16.5) @ Memphis Tigers: WINNER –  “Anybody worth anything hammered Memphis last season. The Rebels were one of those teams.”  It took a while for them to remember they were one of those teams, but in the 4th they finally figured it out and did work, covering for me by plenty.

Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: WINNER “I think Miami’s the better team. There it is.” And I think that’s what it came down to. They had more firepower on both sides of the ball, and while it was one hell of a game, the Canes were the better team.

Better next week, that’s what I’m thinking…

Last Minute Fantasy Football: Projections by Ryan

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This season is going to be crazy in Fantasy Football. How crazy? These things are going to happen. Some say they are a little bold, a couple guys’ say they are just plain nuts, but when all these “crazy” predictions come true remember who was behind these pre-season projections. I’ve got one for every single team in the league, that’s 32 chances at brilliance. The season start’s Thursday, and it won’t take long to see I’m onto something good.

1. Lee Evans out scores TO.

2. Ted Ginn Jr. gets 80 catches, 1100 yards, and 8 TD’s.

3. Laurence Maroney leads the Pats in rushing TD’s and rushing yards.

4. Mark Sanchez throws more INT’s than TD’s.

5. Joe Flacco throws 20+ TD’s.

6. Carson Palmer is a Top 10 QB.

7. Braylon Edwards remembers he is a freak of nature and looks more like the 2007 Braylon with 90 catches for 1300 yards and 12 TD’s.

8. Santonio Holmes leads the Steelers in receiving yards.

9. Matt Schaub finishes the season playing in every game and a Top 5 QB.

10. Joseph Addai finishes the season with more than 600 yards and 6 TD’s ahead of Donald Brown.

11. Tory Holt grabs 11 TD’s

12. Vince Young starts more games than Kerry Collins

13. Eddie Royal finishes the season with more catches, yards, and TD’s than Brandon Marshall.

14. Larry Johnson rushes for 1200 yards and 10 TD’s.

15. Darrius Heyward-Bay shocks everyone but me and halls in 60 catches for 900 yards and 6 TD’s.

16. LT has one great season left in him and goes off for 1800 total yards and 15 TD’s.

17. Tony Romo finishes the season outside the Top 15 QB’s.

18. Brandon Jacobs plays in less than half the Giants games.

19. Mike Vick starts at least 3 games for the Eagles.

20. Beanie Wells leads all rookie RB’s in rushing yards and TD’s.

21. Steven Jackson finally stays healthy for 16 games and is a top 3 RB.

22. Michael Crabtree signs by week 3 in San Fran, catches 65 balls for 800 yards and 6 TD’s.

23. Julius Jones rushes for more than 800 yards and 8 TD’s.

24. Jason Cambell throws 26 TD’s and less than 10 INT’s.

25. Jay Cutler throws more INT’s than TD’s.

26. Kevin Smith puts up another solid year in Detroit with 1400 total yards 60 catches and 10 TD’s.

27. Ryan Grant breaks out for 1400 yards rushing and 12 TD’s.

28. Adrian Peterson rushes for 2100 yards and 16 TD’s.

29. Tony Gonzalez catches less than 6 TD’s

30. DeAngelo Williams doesn’t share as many carries, as “The Daily Show” struggles to stay healthy, and puts up better numbers than 2008.

31. Reggie Bush plays in 14 games and outscores Pierre Thomas.

32. TB starts 3 QB’s during the year and they are all bad.

Fantasy Q and A: Ask Papa Weimer Week 1

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I’m really back now, and my fantasy football help is better than ever. I got my eyes lazered this last weekend and I can see clearly now that I need to get the hell out of this state. It’s been nice, but hell, it’s about to get rainy, and that’s when these old crooked football battered bones start to ache. Somebody win big money off my fantasy advice and send my tattered behind to Thailand so I can swim with the fishies, ride a whale shark, eat curry every day until I die, and just live it up in some nice warm sweaty weather. The dream. The reality? Here I am, going nowhere, and I might as well pretend to enjoy it. Here’s some questions (and answers) from the last 5 days…

Jordan Hardin from L.A. says, “I managed to get Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Ronnie Brown, and one Adrian Peterson (yes the Viking) on one team. The problem is I can only start two. With AP, which of the other three studs to I start? PPR league…”

Doesn’t it suck when you draft like a super star and end up with too many good players and you never get them right on Sundays? I sure do, happens to me now and again, but I have a strategy. I start the guy that means the most to his offense or the guy that has the best match-up. If you have both of those things at once you’ve hit a one roll yahtzee and it’s time to celebrate good freaking times. I don’t think you’re quite at yahtzee level here, maybe a nice three of a kind, but you still have some hints. Frank Gore is going to get more carries than either of the other guys, but the Cardinals have a pretty solid run defense. That’s 1 out of 2. Steve Slaton gets to smash heads up against the Jets defensive front, a unit that should only be better than last year. But he also has a chance to catch more than a handful of passes against a pass defense that wasn’t rated real high in 2008. But I think Ronnie Brown is your best option. That Falcon defense is overrated, and they’re not rated real high. I’m pretty high on Ronnie (read # 16) and he’s got a great match-up, and he’s as healthy as he’s been in quite some time. Ronnie and AP, with two 1st round picks on your bench – crazy.

Dos Mexicans ask, “We’ve come across a pre-season trade offer that loses us Matt Forte, but we think makes our team better. We are currently starting Anquan Boldin, Donnie Avery, and Chad Johnson at our 3 WR spots, and Forte and Darren McFadden at our two RB spots (we also have Tom Brady and Jason Witten at QB and TE). Here’s the proposal… We give up Matt Forte and our 3rd QB Matthew Stafford for Steve Slaton and Eddie Royal. We lose our top pick, but Slaton is no small party favor. We have to do that right?

Yes sirs…. I feel like stopping right there, but let me dig in a little tiny bit – as a general rule I like to respond with a bigger amount of total words than my readers’ questions, thus I have some work to do. While Boldin, Ocho, and Avery might not be a bitter bunch of WRs, adding Eddie Royal, a likely 100 catch guy, to the list and allowing Avery to show you that he’s worth starting, is probably the best thing for your team. Especially because you get Steve Slaton, who to be completely honest, isn’t that much lower on my rankings than Forte. Shoot, my nephew only has him 3 spots lower than Forte. Do it guys!

Timothee Woodland wonders out loud, “I’m in a survivor pool, what am I looking at? I’ve never done this before and while I think I’m pretty good at picking games straight up, a few hints you go by would be too kind.”

I must admit, I’m a bit of a survivor guru. I win most of my small leagues with my buddies every year, so far as they’ve started to call me the crystal ball (*side note from Lucky Lester* -We call him Crystal Ball because his big fat bald head looks like a gigantic crystal ball, not because of his luck in survivor, which is a whole other story, that lucky old man). So, what I’m saying, while apparently tooting my own horn, is that you’ve come to the right place. This is what I do. First, don’t pick a road team unless you have no idea which home team to pick. So first thing, take half the teams, and throw them out. Next, don’t take a team on a rare winning streak (4 games or more, playing out of their mind) – why not ride them when they’re hot? Because those things always (or almost always) come crashing down. 3rd, jump at the chance to use injuries to your advantage. Face it, at some point during the season, a couple big name, big time players are going to be out. If the Dolphins get the Patriots without Tom Brady and Randy Moss, be happy to pick the upset. Last piece of advice, don’t agree to a half and half truce with your buddy when you’re in the finals, especially if he’s the one that asks you. If you accept, he’ll always say that he won money and shared it with you, because, well, it was his idea. Ties suck. Win big or go home trying!

Free Week 1 NFL Picks

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I’m back in action. Fresh off one of my best seasons, I’m ready to deal out my absolutely, 100%, completely, with no small lettered catches at the bottom, Free NFL Football Picks. It’s not often that you get free like this, I know. Willy didn’t even get this free. Perfect. Well I guess you have that blasted internet bill, and you are likely paying for electricity, so it’s not completely free, but I’m not charging you anything. So, at least from me to you is free. Enough free talk. Lets talk football picks. I’ve busted out some previews and some fantasy football action and plenty of other football stuff. But now for the advice. Who do I think is going to take the cake in Week 1? The answers are below. Free. Ha – check them out!

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This isn’t the easiest pick for me, but in the end a hard nosed game, that promises to be an ugly smash mouth defensive battle, has me thinking 6 is just too much. I like the Steelers, don’t get me wrong, but the Titans didn’t get that much worse. Sure, they lost a lot with Albert Haynesworth (the Titans didn’t dominate without Haynesworth), and Pittsburgh’s defense is legit, but I’m not buying a repeat performance for the Steelers in 2009 – last year’s Super Bowl winners usually aren’t very good beginners – write that down. Their offensive line isn’t great, and that’s enough for me to take Tennessee on opening night.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals: I’m not sold on Carson Palmer’s health quite yet. Okay, I think he’s healthy enough to play, but I’m not sure he’ll come out firing on all cylinders to start the season. He’s been out for quite some time. The Broncos have at least one shut-down corner, and I like their defense a lot more than last season’s pathetic unit. I just think their game plan is better. I know they’ll be tougher against the run and put a little more pressure on the QB. Kyle Orton will be better than he showed early in the pre-season, Knowshon Moreno will be dynamic, because, well, he is dynamic. And the Broncos will be a little better than people thought they’d be. Josh McDaniels doesn’t have many fans as of now, but I’m one of them. There’s lots of big plays to be had on that offense, and Cinci isn’t really a machine on either side of the ball. I’ll take the points!

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland Browns: I may be riding with the public here (shoot 99% of sportsbook wagers are taking the Vikings against the spread… I hate picking Minnesota, but I don’t see it any other way. The Browns defense is better than advertised, but Minnesota will be able to gang up on the Browns rushing attack, and their two big guns up front are still in play after the court battle isn’t settled. The Vikings have a great offensive line and a QB, while quite long in the tooth, can make all the throws on the field, and has a tendency to start strong. I like Minnesota: me and everyone else.

New York Jets (+5) @ Houston Texans: This is a close one because the spread is 5, I like the Texans to win, but I like the Jets to cover. 28-24 maybe? Maybe less scoring? Here’s the deal, Mark Sanchez is the real deal. He has great feet, watch him, his confidence in the pocket is awesome. That offensive line is one of the top 5 units in football, and I haven’t even gotten to talking about the Jets defense yet. They may be missing Calvin Pace, but with David Harris and Bart Scott at linebacker, and Kris Jenkins protecting them, I think this team has plenty of playmakers and ball hawks to make some big plays happen. The Texans won’t be able to run, and the Jets will. That’s why I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7): I actually think this line is one of those that looks to good to be true. If Maurice Jones Drew, a guy that is obviously supposed to be the focal point of this offense in Jacksonville, was completely healthy, I would probably steer toward the Jaguars, but nothing about Jacksonville’s defense tells me that Peyton isn’t going to pick his way to score after score. The Colts might start off a little slow in their new schemes, but this is a veteran team with elite talent at very key positions. Bob Sanders out could hurt, but where are the Jaguars really going to pick apart the Colts? Indy looked better against the run in the pre-season. Like I said, that 7 points for the Colts originally made me think, great bet for the Jags, but after looking at it, the line seems about right. Indy at home against a team that can’t pressure Manning, nor can they guard all the offensive playmakers. So, after much deep though action, I’ll roll against the Jaguars, whom I think will turn it around this season.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I actually like the Bucs this season, I think they’ll be just fine as I noted in my Total Wins column. However, this is just a bad match-up for them. Despite having a plethora of backs, a trio I guess, and a pretty damn good offensive line, the Cowboys may just be too tough up front. The pre-season doesn’t always show it all, but last season it was real tough to run against the Boys, and this pre-season was no different. A couple solid run games did nothing against Dallas’s top unit. Many think they’ll lose a lot of punch without one of he league’s all time wide receivers, but I don’t see much drop off from this offense sans TO. They’ll run the ball more, which should bum Tampa Bay out, and check down more to guys like Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Patrick Crayton – the first two are big time play makers that will make defenses pay all year. I like Dallas to win by double digits on the road in this one. Not because the Bucs are bad, but because it’s just a bad match-up for the home team.

Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: I’m such a baby, the Dolphins make me cry… A little Hootie and the Blowfish for ya, you bet. Alright, so I’m taking the Dolphins because they only got better. They seem to struggle a lot with teams that light up the airways and teams with really stellar run defenses that force Pennington to beat them over the top. Atlanta has neither of those aspects on their squad. I know the Falcons are a lot to handle in the run-game, and the Dolphins don’t have the toughest run-stuffing crew in the league, but this group is talented, no doubt. I think Jason Taylor will be a great addition to this defense, and I see Matt Ryan having a lot of trouble every time he drops back. Joey Porter and Taylor are no joke coming off opposing edges. The Dolphins just seem to find a way to win in close games, and last year they played a lot of close games. They can run the ball really well, Pennington plays close to mistake free football, and Matt Ryan still has to stare down the sophomore slump. This game will be very close, and those 4 points could really come in handy.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-13): I think the Ravens run all over the Chiefs and that punch-less KC “offensive” attack has a lot of trouble doing diddly in Baltimore. Bo don’t know Diddly, but I do, and the Chiefs won’t be doing it. Got me? Nobody runs against the Ravens, and something tells me the Chiefs won’t change that history. Matt Cassel might be healthy enough to start, but I wouldn’t care if he got to borrow Randy Moss and Wes Welker for this one, he’s not going to light up the Ravens, even with a secondary that has become a little more unknown if not suspect over the years. This game has really shot up, from -7 to -13, and I still like the Ravens. It’s kind of gross, I know, to like a line after it’s almost doubled, but what can I say. I see Flacco being very accurate against a defensive secondary that recently cut their starting safety and is in the midst of changing defensive schemes under a new head coach. The Chiefs will win some games this year, just not these kind of games. 27-6 is a score I wouldn’t be surprised about.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): I love the Eagles this season, really, I do. But I won’t love them against one of the best rushing attacks in the league until they do something or prove something with that front seven. They couldn’t stop the run this pre-season as I watched opponents run freely over the Eagles. Philly should put up a lot of points, and I fully understand that the Panthers have no interior defensive line either – but the Panthers will fully take advantage of that while the Eagles instead decide to throw the ball 4 out of every 5 downs… Just in this match-up, I like the underdog, hometown, returning best record in the NFC. Call me crazy. The Eagles just have too much hype for me.

Detroit Lions (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: What can I say? I’ve never liked the Saints as a huge favorite against anyone. While they have plenty of fire-power, this is a team that can lose to anybody. Kevin Smith’s running ability, and a couple big plays through the air between rookie signal caller Matthew Stafford and one of the best receiving prospects ever, Calvin Johnson, should be just enough to keep the Lions covering this spread in New Orleans. 5 of the Saints 8 wins were by 10 points or less, and while one of those was a 42-7 beating of Detroit, This line is moving on up, and is getting to 14 in some circles, so you might want to wait just to see – 14 obviously has more value that 13 for obvious scoring reasons. I like the Lions either way. One thing that really scares me is the fact that New Orleans was 7-1 ATS as a favorite last season, meaning they beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Still, 13 points in Week 1 is too much for me, despite those stats telling me otherwise. A stat on my side sees the Lions at 7-1 ATS last season as a double digit dog.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have not impressed me. They have a couple talented backs, but no run blocking offensive linemen to spring them loose. They have Kurt Warner, Larry Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston – but they have no toughness, and they just played too well late last season to not come back to earth this time around. The 49ers may have not signed their top draft pick, a guy with the dynamic playmaking ability they desperately need, but I think they’ll be fine without him. Frank Gore is going to run the ball a lot, and Shaun Hill will use that to get some play action throws to open receivers down field. The Cardinals won’t be as tough against the run this season, and the 49ers will be better at everything in Mike’s first full year as head coach. Their offense may be simple, but that toughness will shine through early.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ New York Giants: I don’t think the Giants are scary enough offensively to bust the Skins through the air. Washington will get more pressure on opposing offenses this season as Haynesworth really is that good. Al will also help ease the pain against one of the best offensive lines in the league, and I think Washington stacks the line against the Giants in this game. I think 6.5 is too much in a game that looks to have very few scoring opportunities.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): Its hard for me to be too excited about the Rams, I called them the worst team in football last season, and despite the Lions hideous record, I stand by that claim. There was no team that was more pathetic than this Rams team a year ago. They no longer have Orlando Pace, but Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg at the edges instead. They don’t have Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce, but Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery. Steven Jackson is still there, but unfortunately still is Marc Bulger. The guy kills more drives by hanging onto the ball than any QB I know. The defense is aging and hurting (like Leonard Little) and failed draft picks over the last couple years are coming back to haunt the new regime. That being said, it’s still 8.5 in Week 1 against a Hawks team that hasn’t proven to be beastly quite yet. I’m going on record and saying this spread is too high. It’s bad value, and I don’t know what I’m thinking by taking the Hawks anyway. It’s one of those times where I just have that feeling…

Chicago Bears  @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): The Bears have gained some momentum going into Week 1. Jay Cutler has looked good in a Bears uniform, and Matt Forte should get more room to run because of it – but can they hang with the Packers in Green Bay? I don’t think the Bears are healthy enough up front, to be honest. I know that sounds crazy, but Chicago will continue to hurt in the front 7 without a healthy Tommie Harris. His push, with quickness against the run and pass, really makes a difference for this defense, and I just haven’t seen that yet. The Packers were better than their record showed last season, and that usually starts to even out the season after some tough luck losses. I expect Ryan Grant to get off to a nice start while Aaron Rodgers gives the Bears secondary fits. A key factor that has me going away from Chicago here is the Packers corners. That group is very tough on the young Bears’ receivers – they’re just too physical and too crafty for those young pass catchers. I like Green Bay.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5): I like the Patriots to dominate in this game. Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on the Buffalo Bills offense, defense, special teams, coaching staff, ownership, etc. They could come out and surprise me, but after spending all pre-season putting together a special offensive plan only to fire the coordinator and scrap it all for something else cries of a TO blow-up on the way. He’ll be asking to get traded to Philly after this year is over. The Bills don’t have a powerful offensive line anymore, and while they do have a couple big time playmakers lining up out wide, I’m not sure Trent is ready to fully take advantage of their talents. New England, on the other hand, should continue to be a beast offensively. I’m probably riding on the Patriot train with a bunch of other public chalk lovers, but I don’t see the Bills slapping enough points on the board to hang with Tom and company. Belichick has had his way with the Bills over the last few years – that trend continues as Dick Jauron’s job security loses some sway. In my happiest of dreams, the OC is brought back half way through the season to take Dick’s job, and he leads the Bills to one of the most stellar offensive outputs in the 2nd half… Dreams. I’ll take the Pats.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9): This line will likely move to 10 if you wait. I don’t have that options because I’m not allowed to wait. Schucks auto supply! Oh well, I still like the underdogs in this divisional match-up. I know, the Chargers get to show up and win, they can sleep through the season and easily take the division, and they have more talent in 5 positions than the Raiders have all over the field. I don’t care. What I care about is that the Raiders will be able to run enough to keep themselves in it. JaMarcus Russell has looked impressive enough to me, and he’s not a mistake prone guy. If a team can run, and they limit their mistakes, that’s good enough to walk with them and a nine point cushion. The Raiders won two straight to end last season, and those weren’t the Lions and Rams, those two wins were against the Texans and a Bucs team that only needed a win against the lowly Raiders in Week 17 to get a playoff birth. They didn’t get it, Gruden lost his job, the Raiders brass (AL freaking DAVIS) rejoiced. I hate the Raiders, let that be known, but I think their rushing attack and fewer mistakes keeps them close enough. If Richard Seymour wipes the sand out and gets to Oakland tomorrow, I like this bet even better.