Week 2 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

Week 1 is in the books and what a strange week it was. Sure a handful of the usual suspects lit up the scoreboard (thank you, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne), but just as many fantasy giants stumbled out of the gates – much to the chagrin of their owners (curse you, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson).  If your team didn’t quite live up to expectations on opening weekend now is certainly not the time for panic.  A few simple tweaks via trade or your league’s waiver system may be all your club needs to compete not just in week 2 but for the long run as well.  In the short-term, players like Saints running back Mike Bell or Oakland wide receiver Louis Murphy can give your squad a welcome boost in production if you are lacking at those positions.  Both Bell and Murphy are owned in less than 15% of standard ESPN leagues and I expect them to continue to contribute even when the injured Pierre Thomas and Chaz Schilens return to action.  With that in mind, here are some other players to consider that are most likely floating around your league’s free agent pool.

Thing 1: This QB relies on accuracy and decision-making to accumulate fantasy numbers.  He is young, but a strong supporting cast of playmakers takes some of the pressure of him on a weekly basis.  In week 1 he went 22-36 for 229 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  Currently this signal-caller is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This QB depends on accuracy as well and with improved pass-catchers around him he will no longer be called upon to do too much with too little.  A very intelligent player (Stanford alum), he kicked off his season going 15-25 for 212 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  He is currently owned in 52% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is Trent Edwards.  I know Edwards isn’t the sexiest option at QB but I believe in the Buffalo starter just entering his second full season.  His accuracy is excellent and he has the arm strength to make all the throws.  With TO in town to relieve some of the pressure from Lee Evans and a very good receiving backfield duo in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, I think Edwards takes a big step forward this season.

Thing 1: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He had a decent week 1 rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries (5.0 ypc) and snagging three passes for 11 yards, though he failed to get into the end zone.  He is currently owned in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He also had a solid showing in week 1 gaining 55 yards on 12 carries (4.6 ypc) including a touchdown.  In addition, he caught one pass for four yards.  Currently, this back is owned in 13% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ahmad Bradshaw and Thing 2 is Michael Bush.  As any LL reader knows, I love Bradshaw but this is more a testament to Bush’s role with the Raiders (and his considerable upside in the event of a trade or injury).  I like for him to get the bulk of the carries in the red zone and score 8-10 TDs this season.

Thing 1: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and hauled in 8 passes for 103 yards but did not record a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team but this player can be counted on for production and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team as well but this player is a reliable target with the trust of his QB and is currently owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Hines Ward and Thing 2 is Justin Gage.  Like Ward, Gage is a gutsy wideout that will make the tough catch and keep the chains moving.  If he is still available in your league don’t pass up the chance at 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs (see also: Burleson, Nate – 23% ownership).

Thing 1: This TE moved to a new team and didn’t do much in the preseason.  Questions about the QB position have created some uncertainty about his expected production.  He made a decent showing in week 1 catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown and is currently owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This TE also changed locations in the off-season and had a quiet preseason before emerging as the leading option in week 1 with 4 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown.  With a young QB that will likely rely on this safety valve, this player makes an intriguing option and is owned in 0% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kellen Winslow and Thing 2 is Robert Royal.  No, that is not a typo for Royal’s ownership percentage but I don’t anticipate that number staying as low as it is.  Brady Quinn has shown a strong rapport with his TEs throughout his young career and the spot vacated by Winslow in the off-season may be Royal’s ticket to fantasy relevance.  He is not a TE1 at this point but he is worth a stash (especially in keeper leagues).

Thing 1: A big-name D/ST, this unit’s best days are probably behind them.  Injuries as well as a few off-season departures have robbed this group of a bit of their swagger and big-play ability.  During week one, they faced a poor offense and allowed 24 points without forcing a single turnover and are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A fly-under-the-radar D/ST, this group is an attacking bunch that will give up some big games but will also get after the QB, resulting in sacks and turnovers (fantasy gold).  In week 1 this unit shut down a decent offense to the tune of 7 points while generating 4 turnovers and 4 sacks.  They are currently owned in 4% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Ravens D/ST and Thing 2 is the Falcons D/ST.  I like this group a lot with the understanding that they are best when matched up against running teams with average passing games.  Elite QBs will be able to pick apart their secondary, but the Falcons generate one of the best pass-rushes in the game.  Be sure to grab them to take advantage of a juicy match-up coming up this week against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers.

Fantasy Q and A: Ask Papa Weimer Week 1

I’m really back now, and my fantasy football help is better than ever. I got my eyes lazered this last weekend and I can see clearly now that I need to get the hell out of this state. It’s been nice, but hell, it’s about to get rainy, and that’s when these old crooked football battered bones start to ache. Somebody win big money off my fantasy advice and send my tattered behind to Thailand so I can swim with the fishies, ride a whale shark, eat curry every day until I die, and just live it up in some nice warm sweaty weather. The dream. The reality? Here I am, going nowhere, and I might as well pretend to enjoy it. Here’s some questions (and answers) from the last 5 days…

Jordan Hardin from L.A. says, “I managed to get Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Ronnie Brown, and one Adrian Peterson (yes the Viking) on one team. The problem is I can only start two. With AP, which of the other three studs to I start? PPR league…”

Doesn’t it suck when you draft like a super star and end up with too many good players and you never get them right on Sundays? I sure do, happens to me now and again, but I have a strategy. I start the guy that means the most to his offense or the guy that has the best match-up. If you have both of those things at once you’ve hit a one roll yahtzee and it’s time to celebrate good freaking times. I don’t think you’re quite at yahtzee level here, maybe a nice three of a kind, but you still have some hints. Frank Gore is going to get more carries than either of the other guys, but the Cardinals have a pretty solid run defense. That’s 1 out of 2. Steve Slaton gets to smash heads up against the Jets defensive front, a unit that should only be better than last year. But he also has a chance to catch more than a handful of passes against a pass defense that wasn’t rated real high in 2008. But I think Ronnie Brown is your best option. That Falcon defense is overrated, and they’re not rated real high. I’m pretty high on Ronnie (read # 16) and he’s got a great match-up, and he’s as healthy as he’s been in quite some time. Ronnie and AP, with two 1st round picks on your bench – crazy.

Dos Mexicans ask, “We’ve come across a pre-season trade offer that loses us Matt Forte, but we think makes our team better. We are currently starting Anquan Boldin, Donnie Avery, and Chad Johnson at our 3 WR spots, and Forte and Darren McFadden at our two RB spots (we also have Tom Brady and Jason Witten at QB and TE). Here’s the proposal… We give up Matt Forte and our 3rd QB Matthew Stafford for Steve Slaton and Eddie Royal. We lose our top pick, but Slaton is no small party favor. We have to do that right?

Yes sirs…. I feel like stopping right there, but let me dig in a little tiny bit – as a general rule I like to respond with a bigger amount of total words than my readers’ questions, thus I have some work to do. While Boldin, Ocho, and Avery might not be a bitter bunch of WRs, adding Eddie Royal, a likely 100 catch guy, to the list and allowing Avery to show you that he’s worth starting, is probably the best thing for your team. Especially because you get Steve Slaton, who to be completely honest, isn’t that much lower on my rankings than Forte. Shoot, my nephew only has him 3 spots lower than Forte. Do it guys!

Timothee Woodland wonders out loud, “I’m in a survivor pool, what am I looking at? I’ve never done this before and while I think I’m pretty good at picking games straight up, a few hints you go by would be too kind.”

I must admit, I’m a bit of a survivor guru. I win most of my small leagues with my buddies every year, so far as they’ve started to call me the crystal ball (*side note from Lucky Lester* -We call him Crystal Ball because his big fat bald head looks like a gigantic crystal ball, not because of his luck in survivor, which is a whole other story, that lucky old man). So, what I’m saying, while apparently tooting my own horn, is that you’ve come to the right place. This is what I do. First, don’t pick a road team unless you have no idea which home team to pick. So first thing, take half the teams, and throw them out. Next, don’t take a team on a rare winning streak (4 games or more, playing out of their mind) – why not ride them when they’re hot? Because those things always (or almost always) come crashing down. 3rd, jump at the chance to use injuries to your advantage. Face it, at some point during the season, a couple big name, big time players are going to be out. If the Dolphins get the Patriots without Tom Brady and Randy Moss, be happy to pick the upset. Last piece of advice, don’t agree to a half and half truce with your buddy when you’re in the finals, especially if he’s the one that asks you. If you accept, he’ll always say that he won money and shared it with you, because, well, it was his idea. Ties suck. Win big or go home trying!

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 6

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. This is the review of that stuff from Week 6 – how’d I do this week? Well, 125 points ain’t bad, but I was looking for magic 150… 

QB: Tony Romo vs. Arizona: The Cowboys lose, but Romo goes for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns (one fumble, no picks) to tally up 28 points for my guys this week. It feels good to get him right before he goes down. 

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: 111 yards but he fumbled twice and didn’t score. He caught one ball for -5 yards, but believe it or not that’s a point. 8 points for AP and he almost fumbled the game away to the Lions. Not a good day for my guy. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Atlanta: 7th rated running back with 21 fantasy points, but is Forte breaking down a bit? His yards per carry average has struggled the last few weeks. Still, 76 rushing, 34 receiving, and a touchdown – Forte continues to be a force. 

FLEX: Ronnie Brown: Top 10 RB with 18 fantasy points, but I don’t think his 13 carries were enough, and a Dolphins loss shows me that. Still, Ronnie scored and totaled 93 yards offensively. 

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Seattle: 5 grabs for 84 yards and a score. I watched Greg drop one, but he’s one of the best receivers in the game. He plays just like Anquan Boldin – the guy is a beast. 19 points for Jennings. 

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Arizona: Didn’t do much, not enough to win anyway, the Cardinals had TO on lockdown all day long, and Owens looked pretty frustrated. A couple nice blocks by TO, but that doesn’t make up for his 

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: 4 catches for 55 yards, and the Cowboys just couldn’t do enough in Arizona. Jason had one of his worst gams of the season but still finished as a Top 10 TE with 9 fantasy points. 

K: Josh Scobee vs. Denver: Weird, Scobee didn’t do anything worth while. 3 extra points and a field goal for 7 fantasy points. Great. 

D: New York Giants vs. Cleveland: Ugh…. – 0 points – that was a nice one to wait for. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Jason Campbell: Jason only had 9 fantasy points, and it cost his team a win. The Redskins needed to do more through the air, and fumble the ball less. Not a lost week for Jason, but still, not worth much more than a C- for me. 

David Garrard: 16 fantasy points for David, not a top score this week but not horrible either. He was bound to do some good work against the Broncos secondary, everyone does. B

Gus Frerotte: 15 points this week, not too shabby at all. 296 yards and a touchdown with one pick. B

Fred Taylor: Fred went down with a concussion in Week 6, then Jones Drew ran all over the Broncos. It hurts a little bit inside, but you see where I was going with this one, right? 1 fumble, 20 total yards – 0 fantasy points – F

Willis McGahee: Gross. F

Lance Moore: 7 catches for 97 yards, no score, but I’ll take 16 fantasy points from a bye week filler pick up any day. B+

Steve Breaston: # 5 overall amongst wide receivers this week – 8 grabs for 102 yards and a touchdown, you have to like what Breaston is doing. A+

Devin Hester: 6 grabs for 87 yards, no score, but in PPR that’s a nice day, 14 fantasy points – get him now before he finds another roster. B+

Greg Olsen: 3 grabs for 41 yards, 7 fantasy points ain’t bad for a TE. 

Washington Redskins: Not bad, but they lost, I can’t be too excited about that. Still, they didn’t allow any yards, holding Jackson under 80 and Bulger only got to 130 something because of a late drive. But they lost, so I will just hate them until they don’t lose to St. Freaking Louis. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

J.T. O’Sullivan: 199 yards 2 picks one fumble no touchdowns – right? I win this one. 

Edgerrin James: 29 rushing yards, his backup had 8 fantasy points – 8-2 backup to starter – your welcome. 

Jamal Lewis: 88 yards and a touchdown, right about two wrong about two others. I definitely missed this one as Jamal played well against the Super Bowl Champs. 

Steve Smith: 6 catches for 112 yards, so yea, I was wrong about this one.