Monthly Archives: September 2009

Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

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This is where Lucky Lester breaks down NFL news (usually from the week that was and usually 10 newsworthy happenings) and how it effects fantasy football owners going forward. Let the games begin… Now! We can’t wait until Thursday!

Matt Cassel was back at practice on Monday, going through all the drills and looking relatively healthy in doing so. If you’re starting the youngster, who is pitching pigskin for an offense that scored just two touchdowns this pre-season, on a team that is going up against the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore – then you have more to worry about than Cassel’s kneesies…   LenDale White not only feels no regret from his terrible towel stomping escapades of yesteryear, he’d do it again, and he expects to. Luckily, we don’t have to wait too long for this to play out, as opening night sees Pittsburgh come to Tennessee for what promises to be a big one. On the matter of big and LenDale White, most would enter a fat joke here – but the young TD machine lost 20 pounds this off-season, and looks to have lost some of that baby fat that was holding his break-away speed back. He has looked better than Chris Johnson this pre-season – but that’s just the pre-season…   Speaking of the Titans, Kenny Britt might be a guy to stash away for this week’s game. He’s not owned in most leagues, but the kid is a beast, no doubt about that, and I’m pretty sure he’s starting. If he shows well against the Steelers, I don’t think he’ll go back to the back-up role, and at the very least you could have nice trade bait. If it doesn’t work out this Thursday, just drop him and pick up that other 16th guy on your roster instead…    This past weekend Tila Tequila (nice name for a tramp) called in a citizen’s arrest on Shawne Merriman for “choking her and holding her against her will”. Sounds bad, but the more I read the more I think this thing will blow-over, regardless of what actually happened. Now I’m almost always on the side of the accuser in these cases, usually to a fault, but this girl is a full blown gong show, and every poor ace-hole that accidentally ran across her stupid show, when they pushed the channel up button too fast, knows it. I’m not saying Shawne’s guilty or innocent, but he is guilty of dating one of the crazier funny-looking fake chicks in the universe. Miss Tequila had more than a couple Tequila shots prior to the incident and Merriman claims to have been “just keeping a friend safe…” All that being said, I would hate to be the Raiders’ offense this weekend. Shawne’s one bad-bad football man, and having charges brought against him by a crazy reality TV star probably won’t cool him off for Sunday’s action. I wouldn’t even want to practice against the guy this week… I’ve always been a huge fan of Sammie Stroughter since his early years at Oregon State. The former Beaver has gone through some tough times, and emerged as a stronger guy because of it. After getting picked late on day 2 of they ’09 NFl Draft, Stroughter has been strong in Bucs’ Camp, and has been recently named the #3 receiver in Tampa. Now I don’t think Tampa will throw much more than 45% of their offensive snaps, but for those deep dynasty league owners, this kid is legit…   Matthew Stafford was named the starting quarterback, but I wouldn’t be stunned at all if Culpepper got the job back a few games into the season. Stafford has a strong arm, no doubt, and his touch isn’t bad, but I watch him play and I don’t think he’s ready. I’ll admit that he has a bright future, but after a couple weeks of struggling, and a couple weeks for Culpepper to be completely healthy, I think the job goes back to the ex-Viking…   That being said, Brandon Petitgrew was also named the starter for the Lions, and he’ll be a solid option regardless of who stays at QB. BP came in with Stafford this year, and I’m sure their relationship is strong because of it. Pep loves throwing to TEs, and you know defenses will be most focused on Calvin Johnson and then Kevin Smith. As a 3rd option for a team that expects to be playing from behind, I like Petitgrew’s upside…   Tim Hightower was named the starting RB in Arizona, and I don’t think that’s just a one-week gig. Many people will say that the Cardinals didn’t waste a 1st rounder on a RB to see him be a back-up, but that’s actually happened a lot. It’s not so long ago that the Cardinals were high on Hightower, and the guy put in work this off-season and looks faster and smarter with his cuts this pre-season. Beanie Wells will get touches, but he didn’t get drafted to take the starting job, he got drafted because he was the most talented player left on the board. No promises were given…. Eric Mangini is up to his old wiley ex-Patriot tricks again, not naming a starter to the public. Who cares, first of all – you shouldn’t. If you do, it must be because you are a Browns fan, or stuck with one of these guys as a back-up, and in that case you had to see some pre-season action, look at the way the team has reacted, the way the ball was moved with one guy or another, it’s pretty damn clear to me that Quinn is the guy in Cleveland….   Pierre Thomas didn’t practice Monday, and that means those that got Reggie Bush late have a very talented starting running back, that was amongst the league leaders before going down with an injury last season, going up against the vaunted Lions defense in Week 1. It has baffled me all summer/fall to see Bush going so late, especially in PPR leagues. Is he a chance? Sure, but a chance well worth taking. It seems his hype became too much to handle and the guy turned into fantasy owner poison. Put that on pizza and beer and your bound to cause a mass epidemic aimed toward fat guys 10x as deadly as swine flu.

Football this Thursday! See you next Tuesday!!

Fantasy Football Value: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Thank you, Dr. Seuss for the inspiration for this weekly fantasy column.  I was in trade negotiations in one of my dynasty leagues when I got to thinking about the (at times) sizable gap between perception and reality when it comes to NFL players and their production.  Nowhere is this schism more apparent than with the dreaded “injury-prone” label that gets tossed about every off-season around draft time.  Remember kids, it’s corner backs that are supposed to have a short memory, not successful fantasy players.  Nothing chaps my ass more than when a player gets slapped with the IP label simply because they got hurt at some point in their most recent season.  Tom Brady missed all of last season with a shredded knee and then hurt his AC joint this preseason when Albert Haynesworth landed none-too-gracefully on him.  Injury-prone? … probably not.  But Carson Palmer, he of the elbow vagitis last season and sprained ankle this preseason? … avoid at all costs because you can’t count on him to stay on the field.  This is what is referred to as a double standard, and if you can sift through the BS and come to terms with reality, your fantasy team stands to reap the considerable rewards when it comes to draft-day value.

Thing 1: A 27-year-old RB whose 2005-2008 yardage totals are 1139, 1284, 991 and 1170.  He has totaled 25 touchdowns during that span.  This player was injured in 2007 is currently being picked in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 28-year-old RB whose 2005-2008 yardage totals are 1420, 1716, 1480 and 804.  He has totaled 28 touchdowns during that span.  This player was injured in 2008 and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ronnie Brown and Thing 2 is Willie Parker

Thing 1: A 24-year-old TE who caught 54 passes for 574 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.  He will be catching passes from a new QB this season and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 25-year-old TE who caught 55 passes for 627 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.  He will be catching passes from a healthier QB this season and is currently being picked in the 9th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Greg Olsen and Thing 2 is John Carlson

Thing 1: A 27-year-old WR who has hauled in 171 passes over the past two seasons totaling 2584 yards and 13 touchdowns.  He was the favorite target of a rookie signal-caller last season and is currently being picked in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 35-year-old WR who has hauled in 183 passes over the past two seasons totaling 2124 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He was the favorite target of a rookie signal-caller last season and is currently being picked in the 8th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Roddy White and Thing 2 is Derek Mason

Thing 1: A 24-year-old QB that completed 61% of his passes and threw for 3440 yards and 16 touchdowns.  This player also ran for 104 yards and 1 touchdown and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 31-year-old QB that completed 63% of his passes and threw for 3620 yards and 15 touchdowns.  This player also ran for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns and is currently being picked in the 12th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is David Garrard

Thing 1: A 32-year-old QB that was banged up and missed nearly all of the 2008 season.  In the three years prior to that, his average season was 4148 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.  He is currently being picked in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 29-year-old QB that was banged up and missed nearly all of the 2008 season.  In the three years prior to that, his average season was 4001 yards passing and 29 touchdowns.  He is currently being picked in the 8th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Tom Brady and Thing 2 is Carson Palmer

Thing 1: A 26-year-old RB that has averaged 1155 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs and 13.75 games/season over the last four years.  This player has played a full 16 games only once and is currently being picked in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 31-year-old RB that has averaged 1244 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs and 15.75 games/season over the last four years.  This player has played a full 16 games five times and is currently being picked in the 5th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Steven Jackson and Thing 2 is Thomas Jones

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

Waiverwire Fantasy Football: The Stimulus Package

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In the game of fantasy football, you’re always looking for a leg up on the competition. If that’s a unique source, Q&A with a fantasy writer such as myself, or numerous places that write good articles with solid information, or just a good group of buddies to bounce ideas off, everyone needs a helping hand. A buddy of mine turned me onto WaiverWire, and told me I should check it out. After spending a few days on the site, I was given a chance to write a review of the site. I was only privy to the free portion of the site, and already I see lots of upside, and options I don’t have in my own fantasy leagues. Here are three of my favorite things from waiverwire’s free portion of the site.

Guru Challege

The Guru Section: This part of the site gives fantasy owners a chance to put their knowledge statistics where their mouth’s are. Every guy in fantasy has said, “I knew Portis was going to get shut down by the Rams, I had Pierre Thomas as a sleeper this year”, or “I knew Marques Colston was going to be legit the day he was drafted”… But this portion of the site actually keeps track of fantasy predictions, so now instead of a fantasy fish story, you’ll have evidence of your magic. Every week you can take part in a question and answer section. The test gets graded at the end of the week, and stats are kept, and rankings published per week and throughout the season are kept for other members to see. That’s great. I know, for me personally, beating my friends at fantasy football isn’t enough, being the true guru is worth just as much, if not more than the fantasy title itself. I like the accountability. Here’s an example of Week 1’s Guru Challenge:

Strength of Schedule

Strength of Schedule: I appreciate the way the strength of schedule is broken down. I’m always looking for every possible way to see what’s coming up, who’s stats might be blown out of proportion, or even better yet, struggling, because of the competition. This site has a great way to do that. Early in the year is a great time to take advantage of another owner’s running back dealing with a tough schedule while selling high on one of your quarterback’s that just plowed through the 3 lowest ranked pass defenses in the league. The full weekly break down, easy to see color system, and tallied system of rating every single team throughout the season makes looking into strength of schedule that much easier. Here’s what I’m talking about:

News Feed Options

News Feed Options: I love the manage news feed option on this site. It’s one of my favorite things, and a great way to keep everything together. I know that I jump around from site to site looking at my favorite portions of news updates. That will bring me anywhere from local news papers to ESPN to a site lick Scout.com. What that never brings me to is Twitter, but that’s a whole different subject (this portions does have a twitter feed option for those interested). This site allows you tons of options in putting all those things together in one section. You can choose from multiple news and article sources that keep you up to date and informed as easy as possible, all in one area. It gives you the day’s most recent updates on player news, local news, team news, and fantasy updates – this is definitely one of the site’s coolest features. Here’s a screen shot:

Overall, the site is easy to navigate, full of information; player rankings, news updates, and competitions: as well as a place to put in your own league and team info so everything is easier to follow. It’s like a file cabinet for all your fantasy football needs. Waiverwire has something good going.

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NCAA Football Top 10 Free Picks: Week 1

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I’m back! And hopefully, for you and for me, better than ever. If you followed me last season you saw a winning season in both the NFL and NCAA, giving you free NCAA and NFL winners for absolutely FREE. When I say Free Picks, I mean Free Picks, I made nothing, you gave nothing, we’re talking real Free, not some small print excluded kind of free that gets your hopes up right before crushing you with reality. The good free. The big story here? I’m back for some more free picks, write-ups, and best of all, heaps and heaps of flipping winners. College Football’s Week 1 is always a big deal, it means football is here, the NFL is damn close, and that nice warm weather that kept you warm (and less pale) for the last four months is just about finished. But the cooler nights allows me to smell some football. And with a bigger whiff I smell some winners. And that smell, more than anything, makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. Here’s 10 bets for Opening Week… Enjoy!

Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos (OVER 64): Here’s the deal. The Ducks went out big last year, winning a few games to end their season, then busting Oklahoma State in the mouth on their way to a big bowl win over the heavily favored Cowboys. Hooray last year. The Ducks also return their stud starting quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, a beast of a running back in LeGarrette Blount, and a few big boys on the line among others. What they lose, however, is some punch in their secondary and that could really hurt against a Broncos team that knows how to pick apart defenses. Boise State has some athletes of their own, helping Kellen Moore put points on the board will be Jeremy Avery, Jeremy Childs, and a huge play guy in Titus Young – a receiver that just happens to be one of the quickest players in the land. You throw in the blue turf, an Oregon team “trying to prove themselves and make up for last years loss to Boise State in Oregon” and I think the Broncos have the comfort level in this one. While I like the Broncos to win, and likely cover the 4 point spread in this one, I like the OVER even more. Oregon scored over 30 points in 11 of their 13 games, and I don’t think the Broncos will hold them much lower than that. The Ducks give up points too, allowing 30 or more to each ranked team they played in 2008. This game should light up the scoreboard, take advantage of that, it’s the best bet in this game.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: Did South Carolina get that much worse in the last year? I don’t see Steve Spurrier’s team doing that. In fact, I think they’ve gotten a little better. Has North Carolina State become a powerhouse this summer, losing their best defensive player for the season? I think they’ll be decent in 2009, but they’re not a great team. The Gamecocks beat NC State 34-0 last season. They played tough against just about every single team they played until injuries broke them down and they lost 3 straight to end their season. Spurrier is a bit of a donkey, don’t get me wrong, but he’s one hell of a coach, offensive genius, and recruiter. His Gamecocks will get big contributions from freshman, a better season out of the quarterback position, and an upset win at NC State this Thursday Night.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6.5) @ Syracuse Orange: This game seems too easy. Does that put a little scare in a guy? Sure, from time to time, but the books are busy, certainly, and doing all those pre-season games, getting lines up for Week 1 in the NFL, getting proper lines for every single college game to start the season, shoot, it has to be tough. So they miss a line now and again. I’d take the Gophers at -14 in this one, so less than a touchdown favorite seems like free money. You know what I think about free money? Take it before it’s not free anymore. Sportsbook still has the Gophers favored by less than a TD, it doesn’t get much easier than that. The Orange are starting a quarterback that hasn’t played football in 4 years, and just transferred from Duke to Syracuse this spring. Greg Paulus, Duke’s old PG, is now the starting QB for Syracuse. Come on. This is Tim Brewsters’ 3rd season as the head coach of the Gophers, this will be his best season yet. The Gophers can really run the football, and the Orange are terrible at stopping the run. Look for the Gophers to start their season off right.

Baylor Bears @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-2.5): This line seems to be moving towards the visiting team. I think the Deacons will win, but the hype is with the Bears. They have a young QB that lit up the conference last season, but I still give the nod at that position to 4 year starter Riley Skinner – the guy has a scope on his arm. Wake loses a lot offensively with Demir Boldin’s graduation, but there’s talent there, and like I said, Skinner is a sniper. Wake struggled a lot last season, playing way below their expectations, and I think that flips this season. The opposite can be said for Baylor. The Bears don’t play well on the road, they look like everybody’s favorite sleeper team this season, and I’m not buying in. I’ll take the Deacons.

BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners (-22): BYU didn’t get better, and last year they got pretty well kicked around by every “Good” team they played, at least final score wise. Arizona was decent, they won by 10. Utah was good, they won by 24. TCU was good, they won by 25. You get the picture? Oklahoma returns a load of great players, 1st round pick in the NFL type players, best QB in the land type players – so despite the high number, despite BYU’s returning players and big game hopes, I like the Sooners to beat up the Cougars by 30 or so.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: The ACC gets not love, and that’s fine, I’ll just ride them toward some bags of money. The Hokies have a good enough defense to go with them as a 6.5 point dog against anybody in the nation, especially a run first team that lost 3 starting offensive linemen, their starting quarterback, and starting running back. I’m not sure that the Hokies are a Top 5 team, but I really don’t think Alabama will finish the season in the Top 15, not that rankings matter at all, but I’m basically saying the Hokies are the better team.

Maryland Terrapins (+21.5) @ California Golden Bears: I’m taking the Terps because 25 is too high. The Terps play close as dogs, and I think the Bears are a little overrated, even though Jahvid Best is an absolute beast. I think the Bears win by 10, maybe 14, but not more than three touchdowns.

LSU Tigers (-17.5) @ Washington Huskies: If the Tigers promise that they won’t throw the ball, and the Huskies get to stack 11 people in the box, and their new head coach just for shiggles, the Tigers will still run all over the Huskies in Seattle. The talent difference on the field should look like a college team playing a pro team. Do I think the Huskies will be better this year? You bet. Will they be good enough to make this game respectable? No chance. I would be stunned, absolutely pissed on, if the Huskies finish within four touchdowns of the Tigers.

Mississippi Rebels (-16.5) @ Memphis Tigers: Anybody worth anything hammered Memphis last season. The Rebels were one of those teams. This year, the Rebels are a year older, and that has made them a more complete team, stronger in a lot of places that help you destroy teams like Memphis. Ole Miss isn’t used to being in the Top 10, that’s for sure, and a couple games this season, those expectations are going to hurt them. Not in this game, that won’t hold them back.

Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: I think Miami’s the better team. There it is. This game is always a huge rivalry game, but I must say that it has to mean more to Miami. This is their very best chance for a win in the first four games of the season. After FSU it’s Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma. It doesn’t get easier after this game, that’s what I’m saying. So, I think they’ll have a little urgency, something that FSU won’t be ready for. I also think Jacory Harris is special, and that this Miami team is going to be very talented this season. Almost a touchdown dog in this big in-state rivalry game? I like them to cover here.

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

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My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.