Monthly Archives: September 2009

NFL Fantasy Focus Review: Week 2

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One more week down in the NFL, one more fantasy title in the bag for me. That’s right folks, I fought off Red Red Ryan, his awkward red hair, and that allergy riddled red skin, and took home the top spot amongst the staff for the second straight week. If I ice the game for three weeks in a row, you can bet I’ll be talking hat trick once again. This is the review of my fantasy picks for Week 2, hope you enjoy the Fantasy Focus!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Michael Turner – Turner carried 28 times for a buck-0-five and a touchdown. But was just ok. C
2. Tom Brady – Tom was brutal this week, making me look like a rookie at this game. F
3. Marques Colston – 8 catches, 98 yards, 2 TDs, huge day. Those Eagles can’t guard big WRs. A+
4. Steve Smith – I told you week 1 was a fluke, Steve caught 8 balls for 131 yards in Week 2. B+
5. Brian Westbrook – Westbrook wasn’t as big a part of the offense as I thought. D

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – Eddie is killing me. I’m not giving up on him yet. F-
2. Ronnie Brown – 4th amongst backs, Ronnie had a huge day on the ground against the Colts. A+
3. Joe Flacco– His second straight multiple TD game of the season, but only 190 yards. B-
4. Joseph Addai – Addai was hurt by the Colts quick strike offense, getting only 6 carries and 31 yards. F
5. Leon Washington – Leon didn’t do much in a low scoring game. F

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Michael Bush – The Raiders are dealing with 8 in the box, Bush had 9 carries for 35 yards. Ugh. D
2. David Garrard – 9th overall, that’s more like it, I think Garrard will have a quietly solid year. A-
3. LenDale White – Chris Johnson put on a show, and White got just 6 carries for 25 yards, tough deal. F
4. Mike Bell– Mike looked good again, and despite getting hurt, put up 85 yards and a TD on 18 touches. A
5. Nate Burleson – Four catches for 46 yards, no scores. The Hawks looked lost when Matt went down. D+

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Jay Cutler – Cutler played well, giving his team a chance even though they couldn’t run at all. F
2. Reggie Bush – 13 touches for 75 yards and a touchdown, better than I thought. D
3. Steven Jackson – 17 carries for 104, 4 grabs for 15 yards. Not bad, better than I expected, not great. C+
4. Julius Jones – He may have snuck in a short TD catch, but Julius had 11 yards on 8 carries. I was right. A
5. Patrick Crayton – 3 fantasy points in a PPR league. This one I got one right on the money. A

PS – If you started Wes Welker, it probably hurt you. I know I won a league because of it…

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees 2   	1.Drew Brees 2		1.Drew Brees 2		1.Tom Brady 28
2.Peyton Manning 7	2.Peyton Manning 7	2.Tom Brady 28    	2.Kurt Warner 9
3.Aaron Rodgers	14	3.Tom Brady 28     	3.Tony Romo 23    	3.Peyton Manning 7
4.Kurt Warner 9   	4.Kurt Warner 9		4.Matt Hasselbeck 31	4.Joe Flacco 17
5.Matt Schaub 1  	5.Aaron Rodgers 14	5.Kyle Orton 18		5.Drew Brees 2
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson 8	1.Adrian Peterson 8	1.Adrian Peterson 8	1.Michael Turner 15
2.Maurice Jones Drew 25	2.Chris Johnson 1	2.Michael Turner 15	2.Brian Westbrook 33
3.Brian Westbrook 33	3.Maurice Jones Drew 25	3.Darren McFadden 21	3.Adrian Peterson 8
4.Ronnie Brown 4	4.Clinton Portis 33	4.Maurice Jones Drew 25	4.Frank Gore 2
5.Clinton Portis 33	5.Brian Westbrook 33	5.Thomas Jones 41 	5.Chris Johnson 1

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Greg Jennings	109	1.Reggie Wayne 54   	1.Larry Fitzgerald 27	1.Randy Moss 54
2.Larry Fitzgerald 27	2.Larry Fitzgerald 27	2.Reggie Wayne 54	2.Larry Fitzgerald 27
3.Reggie Wayne 54  	3.Randy Moss 54		3.Steve Smith 7   	3.Marques Colston 3
4.Andre Johnson 1	4.Roddy White 16	4.Jericho Cotchery 30	4.Andre Johnson 1
5.Steve Smith 7  	5.Greg Jennings 109	5.Calvin Johnson 16	5.Steve Smith 7

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Jason Witten 8 	1.Jason Witten 8	1.Tony Gonzalez 3	1.Dallas Clark 1
2.Chris Cooley 6	2.Dallas Clark 1	2.John Carlson 13 	2.Jason Witten 8
3.Tony Gonzalez	3	3.John Carlson 13	3.Dallas Clark 1 	3.Zach Miller 49
4.Jeremy Shockey 18	4.Tony Gonzalez	3	4.Owen Daniels 4 	4.Kellen Winslow 2
5.Zach Miller 49  	5.Owen Daniels 4  	5.Jason Witten 8	5.Chris Cooley 6

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Steelers 18		1.Vikings 4		1.Vikings 4		1.Steelers 18
2.Ravens 18		2.Steelers 18		2.Steelers 18		2.Packers 12
3.Vikings 4		3.Redskins 3		3.Ravens 18		3.Falcons 12
4.Seahawks 24		4.Patriots 16		4.Packers 12		4.Redskins 3
5.Falcons 12		5.Packers 12		5.Cowboys 31		5.Vikings 4

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kickers be damned, but here's the Week 2 Rankings:
1. Rian Lindell 2. Lawrence Tynes 3. Dan Carpenter 4. Nate Kaeding

Looking back at the week's action... For the second straight week, I had higher rated
players in my Top 5 lists than anybody else on the site. Josh took QBs, Ryan took the TEs
pretty easily, and I had running backs, receivers, and defenses taken care of. Ryan had lots
of second place finishes, but his terrible WR picks kept him in 2nd place, keeping me on
top. It feels good to win, always. Papa Weimer pretty much pooped the bed, but he's old and
basically needs help getting up at night to use the toilet, so that kind of thing is
expected now and again. Josh was the only writer that had the balls to take Matt Schaub,
plus he left Tom Brady off his Top 5, those two things gave him an easy win. We missed a lot
of good quarterbacks in Week 2, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Byron Leftwich, and Eli
Manning finished 3-6 respectively - not one writer picked any one of those guys. As for RB,
nobody picked Darren Sproles, Marion Barber, Fred Jackson, or Willis McGahee - those guys
finished 3, 5, and tied for 6 on the week. Felix Jones and Carnell Williams also did work
rounding out the top 10. In the receiver area, I had numbers 1, 3, and 7 in my top 5, seeing
big games from Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, and Steve Smith. Plus, I didn't put Greg
Jennings in my Top 5 like Red Red Ryan and Josh, his 0 point night put them in a tough spot.
We left out Mario Manningham, who made a big name for himself with a great Sunday Night
performance. A couple more Top 10 guys that didn't get picked, Steve Smith (NYG), Vincent
Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Donald Driver, Ted ginn Jr., and DeSean Jackson. Jason Avant
and Johnny Knox also had big games out of nowhere.  Ryan took the TE list with 1, 3, 8, 4,
and 13 all making his Top 5. Brent Celek, Marcedez Lewis, and Kellen Davis all made the top
10, and none of us picked them. The Broncos and Cardinals finished atop the defensive
rankings, and went unpicked in any of our Top 5s. That's how it was, one more week for
Lucky Lester!!!

Keeping score for week 2! This is the positional breakdown based on Week 2's rankings:

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

1.QBs 1         	1.QBs 2		        1.QBs 4  		1.QBs 3
2.RBs 3		        2.RBs 2	   	        2.RBs 4                 2.RBs 1
3.WRs 3		        3.WRs 4		        3.WRs 2         	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 4  		4.TEs 1          	4.TEs 2         	4.TEs 3
5.DST 3         	5.DST 2         	5.DST 4         	5.DST 1

Week 3 College Football Free Pick Review

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I started out winning 4 out of 5 of my NCAA free picks and was pretty excited going into the second half. I had picked some good upsets, some favorites, and a nice dog that turned into a mighty husky. After that it was all down hill. I may be killing it in the pros, but this is my worst start in college football ever. Here’s how it went.

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes (-4.5): (WINNER) The Hurricanes were the much better team, smacking the Yellow Jackets around something fierce. Tech moved the ball better than the final score showed, but penalties kill a team that doesn’t throw the ball. They had 2nd and long lots of times.

Boston College Eagles @ Clemson Tigers (-6.5): (WINNER) I thought this one would be pretty one sided, I told you it would be, it was. Clemson is a pretty darn good team up front, I imagine they’ll keep showing up to play, and should be a nice bet moving forward, because they really get no love at all.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+15) @ Oklahoma Sooners: (LOSS) Oklahoma big brother’d the Hurricane in this one, treating them like a small college team, and using their strength to just flat out dominate from kickoff to finish. Missed this one.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+6) @ Maryland Terrapins: (WINNER) “The Blue Raiders have looked solid in their start to the season while the Terps have looked dismal. This spread should be smaller, yet 71% of the public is still riding the slow moving Terps. I think Maryland falls to the small school Blue Raiders. They just haven’t played well enough to win games, and nothing seems to be getting answered in Maryland.” I can’t say it better with 20-20 hind sight.

USC Trojans @ Washington Huskies (+20.5): (WINNER) WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER!!! The Huskies not only covered but iced the #3 Trojans to the tune of a huge 16-13 upset. Gotta love that! As big as this win was, for the Dawgs and myself, it was the last win of the week. Damn the man!

Arizona Wildcats (+5.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: (LOSS)  Arizona came to play as if they had walked to Iowa the night before the game. This one was pretty blah from the outset, I was wrong again.

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SMU Broncos (-7) @ Washington State Cougars: (LOSS) Those blasted Cougars got lucky, so much for betting against them every single game just to see what happens. I hate when my plan gets foiled.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Oregon State Beavers (EVEN): (LOSS) This was a close one, but the Beavers couldn’t do enough. Cincinnati didn’t put up big time points like they had been, but their defense was still pretty stout. They did enough to keep me losing.

Florida State Seminoles @ BYU Cougars (-7): (LOSS) Florida State showed why small programs can’t hang with the big boys on a good day. FSU came out pummeling the Cougars and never stopped. The athleticism on the away team’s sideline was too much from the get go.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-1): (LOSS) The Bulldogs came in and winged it around. I was pretty stoked up 21-10 after the first quarter, but both teams kept firing away and I was on the wrong end of a 4th quarter that put the Bulldogs up for good.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (-7): (LOSS) UNLV won, but naturally, because this is how my college football year has gone thus far, it wasn’t by enough to get me the win. A one point win for the Rebels was good enough to assure me a 4-7 Week 3. You ought to be killing College Football if you’re fading me.

Week 2 Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

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After two weeks, Drew Brees is on pace to throw 72 touchdown passes while gaining one million yards (but is still second to Phillip Rivers in the yardage area). His QB Rating is 132.9, damn near perfect. However, it’s not Brees and his 9 touchdowns that has me amazed. It’s second year studs, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco that have me impressed. These guys haven’t heard of sophomore slump, both have their teams undefeated, and are tied for second in QB TDs behind Drew….   Three offensive coordinators were fired right before the season started, of the three, it looks like only the Chiefs little fella has had any effect, and that might be pushing it. See Buffalo is moving the ball and putting up points despite cutting their OC, Trent Edwards is Top 5 in passer rating and tied for 4th with four touchdowns thus far. Byron Leftwich has also tossed 4 touchdowns while Tampa’s running game has put up some solid totals as well. The Chiefs have been brutal, but it’s hard to see KC being much better with Bill Walsh calling plays….    Brett Favre has the highest completion percentage in the NFL, and has yet to toss an interception. So much for him being too much of a gunslinger, and starting off the season a little rusty after spending more time throwing to high school receivers than pro guys. It has to be nice handing the ball to Mr. Peterson……  The 2007 Draft class is beginning to look like a quarterback bust. So far, the best season has to be given to Tyler Thigpen for his performance down the stretch last year. Trent Edwards is probably the best player of the bunch, especially given that Tyler couldn’t beat out Brodie Croyle for the Chiefs #3 job. Maybe Troy Smith would be getting the nod if he had not gotten hurt before the 2008 season, but Joe Flacco has that job on lock down so we may never see. The two first round picks, Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell (not in that order) have been guys I’ve tried to like, but they are making it very difficult to do so….    Matthew Stafford is not ready to be an NFL quarterback. I don’t know how else to put it. I know his first name is Matt, and last year a guy named Matt was a first year stud, but it’s not that kind of copycat league. He throws the ball really hard, and will pull an amazing toss out of his ace here and there, but the kid has a guy named Calvin Johnson on his team, of course he’s going to look good now and again. The Lions have lost nearly 20 straight football games, I know they’re not going to win a lot this year, but they might want to get Culpepper in there so they have a chance to break that streak before it gets into the 30s….   Speaking of that class, it may not have been QB heavy (to say the least) but there are some absolute freaks of nature (from that group) taking the league by storm. Adrian Peterson, beast. Calvin Johnson, freak. Patrick Willis, machine. Darrell Revis, stud. And there’s more pro-bowlers from that group. It may be top heavy, but you could argue that those four guys are either the best but no lower than Top 5 at their positions…..   Marc Bulger is brutal. Somebody tell me how Jeff Garcia can just get signed last week when Marc Bulger can have a starting gig and millions of dollars getting paid to him to do what he does. Brutal. If they lose 16, they need to get the nod for worst team of all time….    It’s hard to write a weekly fantasy re-cap without mentioning Mario Manningham, it’s not fair to you guys and it’s not fair to him. Manningham looked like a beast in college, but he looks frail in the NFL. But looks can be deceiving, because all you have to do is ask the Cowboys to understand how tough this guy is to tackle. Apparently Elly Manning knew something when he told everyone that he expected big things from mini-Mario. He’s fast enough to get open, runs good routes, and has shown fearlessness when catching the ball in traffic. Steve Smith has been solid, but I don’t expect this to be Mario’s only good week. And I don’t know if the Giants are going to have a mediocre receiving corps for long. A trio of Hakeem Nicks, Mario, and Smith – with Hixon as a 4 – that is going to be a good group…..   Julius Jones in Week 1 or Julius Jones in Week 2? Somewhere inbetween. It’s tough to fault him completely for his 8 carry for 11 yard performance against the 49ers. The Hawks will start getting offensive linemen back this next week, and should get better as the season moves forward. That being said, they only play the Rams one more time – still, Jones will be alright…..   Felix Jones is still averaging over 8 yards per carry, which is just disgusting. I know he only has 13 carries this season, and barely over 40 for his short career, but he might get real carry numbers next week, and here’s to hoping he continues to bust carry’s off for 8.9 per clip. He might be the only RB in the history of the NFL that averages more yards per run than he does per catch….   Brandon Jacobs, Darren McFadden, and Kevin Smith: 3 guys I thought would have big years, are all averaging less than 4 yards a carry through 2 games. Kevin Smith has had a tough time early, but Sunday’s 85 yard performance against a stout Vikings defense makes me think he’ll be just fine. Jacobs should start to see more running room with Elly and his receivers looking good enough for the girls he goes with. And McFadden, well, unless Russell starts showing defenses that he can complete more than half his passes, he’s going to struggle to find room. Still, if you’re paying a running back that much cake, get him the ball at least 20 times a game. Yeah, that’s 11, not 10, so sue me.

NFL Week 2 Expert Picks Review: Football Handicapping

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It would be easy to say that I should have won 11 for my Week 2 football picks for week too, because, honestly, I have to feel I picked that Monday Night game right on the button. But that’s just looking at what went wrong. If I was doing the what if business, or the should have business, I would have to admit the Giants probably shouldn’t have won on Sunday Night either… But I won 10 more games this week, starting out with double digit douzies in each of the first two weeks. Can’t ask for much more than that. This is how the cookie crumbled…

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Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) This game was very close. I’m not saying I should have won, but I’m not saying I look like a dope for making this pick either. The Panthers had their chances, that’s for sure, and were driving the ball late in this game, going for a tie. Two times in the red-zone with no points ended things for Carolina, a team that I think should be a nice underdog going forward.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-9.5): (LOSS)  “At first glance this one is tough for me to stomach. Take the Rams, a team I have claimed to be the worst in football, or the Redskins, a team favored by 10 that has shown very little ability to put the ball in the end zone with Jason Campbell at the point.” I followed this by saying some things that I wish I wouldn’t have. Things I may never say again like, “I believe in the Redskins’ offense”. Washington won, sure, but they didn’t even score enough to cover if they had shut out the Rams. The play calling in Washington is very dull, lacks any sort of creativity, and basically gives Jason Campbell no chance to succeed. I don’t know why coaches insist on doing this for quarterbacks that are struggling. Making a QB easier to defend is no way to help him out, to help him improve. Both of these teams were pathetic on Sunday, but the Rams are still the worst team in football.

Houston Texans (+8) @ Tennessee Titans: (WINNER) “From what I saw from the Titans last week, they have a very good run defense. But they have holes in that secondary if the offensive line withstands that immediate surge. I think the Texans were terrible last week, but not a terrible football team. So things have to even out. The Titans should have won against Pittsburgh, but some missed field goals kept the Steelers in the game. The Titans are solid, and should run the ball well against Houston, but the Texans are closer to the Titans than 8 points. This is a divisional game, and both teams should come in with a lot to prove. That usually keeps the outcome closer, I’ll take the points.” I’m glad I got this one. Lots of points early, and Chris Johnson’s very own highlight film had me on the ropes. But just like I expected, Houston’s offense came to play, and this game was tied late. With a certain cover in the cards, I loved seeing Houston come out and upset Tennessee at home. I think Houston has this kind of offense, and will continue to give good teams trouble all season long.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1): (LOSS) “I don’t think this is a safe bet, but I’m taking the Eagles.” Hopefully you took my warning to heart, unlike myself, and didn’t wager on this game. I liked the Eagles, thought they’d be tougher defensively for Drew, but the 6 foot wonder kid torched his second straight opponent. It’s going to take a down game from Brees for his Saints to lose, and I’m not sure how easy that’s going to be to predict. The Eagles secondary is pretty solid, but Brees made them look like junior varsity most improved players… The Eagles put up lots of yards, but the Saints D made some big plays putting this one on the top shelf early.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+5): (WINNER)  “I don’t like taking a team that played poorly, should have lost, and won last week. So I’m not going to do it. The Jets do lots of little things right, and their defense is stout. I’m not sure the Patriots will be able to stop the run with Seymour stuffing the line of scrimmage in Oakland and Jarrod Mayo out for a few weeks. The Jets have a very solid offensive line, and I think they’ll be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.” You could see the chip on the Jets’ shoulders all game long. New York is too good defensively to be a 5 point dog, and their offensive line is too good for that as well. They do the little things right, they should have won this game, and they did.

Oakland Raiders (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) Well, JaMarcus Russell was brutal, the Raiders didn’t run all that well, but KC’s offense couldn’t put up points either, and the Raiders pulled out a win in KC. I liked the Raiders to win this one, and they did just enough to make that happen. I wouldn’t say the beat up on the Chiefs, but as a four point dog against a bad offense, you don’t need to kill to be an easy cover. I thought the Raiders were exactly that.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): (LOSS)  Kurt Warner was amazingly accurate, and the Cardinals, never a good team playing on the East Coast, got to 1-1 on the season by smashing a Jaguars team that doesn’t look that good. Jacksonville needs something, and I’m not sure it’s players… Just saying.

Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER)  “I hate to do this, because I think the Packers are a lot better than they played last week, but I can’t take a team that played poorly last week, pulled out a win anyway, and is now favored by 9 over a defense that looks much improved. I think the Bengals offense will improve every week, and from Week 1 to Week 2 will be no difference. People will look at this game and say, the Bengals suck, they lost to the terrible Broncos, but I don’t see it that way. I don’t think the Broncos are bad, they just aren’t great. And it took a pretty big fluke for the Bengals to get ousted in Week 1. Nine is a lot of points, and an improved Bengals defense should keep it closer than that. A couple big plays from Palmer and Chad, and this could be a big upset in Week 1. Survivor players, steer clear!” Please tell me you listened up and didn’t go with the Packers in your survivor games… I know I stayed away, and for good reason. That first part of what I said, never take a team that played poorly and just slipped by and is now a big favorite – write that down, put it in a safe, and look in that safe every week before making your picks.

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Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Like everyone else, I liked the Vikings here. For all the obvious reasons that made them one of the more popular picks in Week 2 – so I don’t need to go into much detail. All I know is that Stafford still isn’t ready as his two more interceptions in Week 2 show. If the Lions want to win, Culpepper is their guy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) @ Buffalo Bills: (LOSS) This was a tough one. Buffalo jumped out early, and honestly if it weren’t for some big dropped passes by TO, this game would have been an even bigger blowout. I really expected good things from the Bucs run game in this one, but like many running teams, if you start off way behind it’s tough to get the run game started. A swing and a miss no doubt.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5): (WINNER)  “I think the 49ers just play a tougher brand of football that makes a tough match-up for the Hawks. Frank Gore’s running style seems to eat up the smallish Hawks front 7, and especially with Leroy Hill out, Seattle should have trouble preventing Gore from averaging less than 5 yards a carry. I think San Fran will feed the man the ball, and that should be enough to pull a home win in Week 2.” My buddy, and fantasy writer on my site, Red Red Ryan, told me that I was nuts for taking the 49ers here, and when I told him that Frank Gore would dominate the Hawks, he asked me when the last time he had 100 yards against the Hawks was…. Well, needless to say, when I got a text midway through the 1st quarter, I was happy to see a reply saying: “Well that didn’t take long.” Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re right and your friend is wrong. Like my buddy Josh says, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3) : (WINNER) I liked the Broncos at home, but I didn’t expect them to blow Cleveland out. Now it was just 13-6 going into the 4th quarter, but Denver really ran this game. I liked them a lot more than most people did, coming into the season, but their defensive prowess has been even better than I expected.

Baltimore Ravens (+4) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) This game was pretty interesting. A couple huge plays defensively got Baltimore the win, but contrary to what I expected, it was offense that dominated this box score, but it wasn’t the offensive numbers that won the game. Phillip Rivers put up 436 passing yards against the Ravens, that’s nuts. But SD couldn’t run the ball at all, and the Ravens ended up eating up the clock and being more physical up front. Willis McGahee had a big day, but it was Ray Lewis that shut the Chargers down on 4th down in the 4th quarter, ending the game. The Ravens were going to cover either way, but the win felt nice.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+3): (WINNER) “The Steelers’ offensive line is pretty bad, just ask Willie Parker and his 19 yards on 13 carries last week… They played a poor game and should have lost last week against the Titans, but Tennessee kept pooping the bed every time they got into the red-zone area. …Cutler also has the ability to make some big plays too, and a couple big plays could be enough points to beat the Steel City. There’s no doubt in my mind that Cutler will be better in his second outing, and while the Steelers are very tough defensively, their offense isn’t strong enough to blow a solid team out. Chicago is a good team. I think this one is close, but I’m going against the defending champs here.” There you go. The Steelers’ O-line wasn’t good enough to beat up the Bears defense as Pitt’s run game never got on track. Ben threw the ball all over the field again, but like I said, that’s no way to get a sure win. Chicago took advantage, hung in, and used some big throws to get the win in a game nobody thought they had a chance in. I like to win, don’t get me wrong, but I love to win when I have readers writing in and telling me how wrong I am about said pick. Guys, I’m not mailing you back and telling you I told you so, because you know what’s up.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) So, when I pick a game wrong I admit it. And I’ve always been one to tell you if I pick a game wrong, win or lose. This is one of those cases. If I had to do it again, I’d probably go with the Cowboys in this situation. They played better. They were the better team, and they smashed the Giants around. New York needed some freak stuff to happen and a terrible game from Mr. Romo to win this game – and that’s what they got. In most instances, Tony doesn’t throw the ball around like Ryan Leaf, but thank goodness for me, and all those other Giant backers, that’s exactly what he did on Sunday Night. Don’t worry though, I took some Karma on Monday Night.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (+3): (LOSS) “I think they’ll run the ball very effectively, and upset Indy. The Colts had a lot of big numbers last week, but just barely snuck by the Jaguars. Now, that’s what the Colts do from time to time, but I think it’s because Indy just isn’t as powerful as they once were. Basically, I expect the same Colts I saw last week and a much better Dolphins team than the one that lost a pushover to the Falcons.” What more can I say? Did I or did I not have this game right on the freaking button? The Dolphins ran the show on Monday Night, and all signs point to them winning the game. However, some pretty poor coaching, some terrible calls on their last field goal drive and on the final drive of the game, Ted Ginn Jr. dropping the game winner in the end zone, and this guy name Peyton Manning and his Colts barely sneaking by just happened to do me in by a single point. You win most of these, you lose some. That’s just the way it goes.

When all is edited and rephrased, I took ten this week. I’ll take 10 Wins every week for the rest of my life and smile from ear to ear. Until next week!

Trick or Treat?

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Welcome to Red Red Ryan’s weekly “Trick or Treat” section, where I, Red Red Ryan, break down some of the performances from the previous week and tell you whether or not you are being tricked or if you can expect the same treat the rest of the way.

Joe Flacco: 24 year-old Joe Flacco had the best game in his young career last Sunday. He set career highs in attempts (43), yards (307), and touchdowns (3). The most important stat that leads me to believe you can expect top 15 fantasy QB numbers this year are those attempts. Joe attempted an average of 26 passes a game last year. Baltimore has said they are opening up the playbook and the entire field to Flacco, and that already shows in Week 1. This means more passes to the middle of the field to Todd Heap, opening up more big plays to the sideline. Heap already matched his high catch game from 2008, and had more receiving yards in Sunday’s game than any time last year. Baltimore has been more of a traditional running team in the past, but I think those days will stay there. Expect great numbers from the young QB the rest of the year.
Judgement: TREAT!

Julius Jones: First I will start off by saying it is always a treat to lineup against the Rams if you are an RB. The rams were 4th worst in the NFL last year in rush defense giving up 154 yards a game. Last year in week 3 at home at Quest Field Julius Jones ran for 140 yards and a TD, very close to his Week 1 total (117 and a TD). The 140 yard performance was Jones’s best game of the year in 2008 and I hate to say it, but his latest game against the softest defense in football might be his best of the 2009 season as well, at least until he plays against the Rams again in Week 12. I do expect Jones to have a better season this year than last. A new run scheme should help Jones and the Hawks offensive line stretch the field. But I believe he is still at best a #3 RB. Keep playing him in good match-ups, just like you should with most of your non-elite players.
Judgement: TRICK!

Tim Hightower: This was more of a difficult call for me. It is much tougher making a prediction for me on a young player, especially a young player with new offensive coordinators. Tim didn’t have a great day rushing the football, only 8 rushing attempts for 15 yards. However, he caught 12 balls for 121 yards. Before Sunday’s game against the 49ers Tim’s career high in receptions in a game were 6 and his previous high for receiving yards: 34. The Cardinals trailed for majority of the game and the 49ers played great defense forcing Kurt Warner to check the ball down to Hightower. I don’t see too many defenses shutting down Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and I don’t see the Cardinals playing too much catch up this season. This means you have to rely on Tim running the football. Something he hasn’t been able to do on a consistent basis yet in his career averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, and oh yeah, they drafted a beast of a running back named Bennie Wells who averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his first NFL game. I don’t see Tim getting majority of the hand offs for too long. I see his role turning more into a Chestor Taylor type role, catching passes out of the backfield on third down and getting every 5th series to rest the teams real horse.
Judgement: TRICK!

Carson Palmer: This may surprise you. Carson Palmer is better than 247 yards 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s. It’s tough to only be able to throw the ball to one side of the field. That’s what happens when you play against Champ Bailey. Not only was Carson playing against one of the toughest cover corners in the game he was playing without his favorite target now playing in Seattle. Expect Carson to target big bodied Chris Henry more this week, to take over for TJ as a possession receiver. One big thing I take from Week 1’s game against the Broncos that shows me Carson is just a couple of games away from returning to his fantasy stud form are is his completion percentage. Carson’s 63.6 CMP% match his career mark of 63.7 CMP%. This tells me that Carson is just as efficient now against a difficult pass defense as has been throughout his career. Now what I see is that he is going to have to throw the ball a lot for Cincy to have a shot at winning games, those two things together make last week’s poor fantasy output a trick, he’ll be just fine.
Judgement: TRICK!

Santonio Holmes: Santonio is quickly becoming Big Ben’s favorite target. He may not need to be Ben’s #1 WR this year to still score lots of fantasy points, and make those that have believed in Holmes since coming out of “The Ohio State University” 4 years ago, look like a genius. I, being one of the aforementioned. The fact is Pittsburgh is having a difficult time rushing the football and have now lost one of the best defensive football players in the NFL.

More points given up + A bad rush offense = More passing plays
I hope you all could follow my math. This means good things for the sticky fingered Holmes. He has already proven he can be a big play guy, leading the NFL in yards per reception already once in his career. But in the last two games the Steelers have played, Holmes has been the most targeted receiver in both cases. Expect a career year and a top 12 WR at seasons end.
Judgement: TREAT!

Week 2 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Week 1 is in the books and what a strange week it was. Sure a handful of the usual suspects lit up the scoreboard (thank you, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne), but just as many fantasy giants stumbled out of the gates – much to the chagrin of their owners (curse you, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson).  If your team didn’t quite live up to expectations on opening weekend now is certainly not the time for panic.  A few simple tweaks via trade or your league’s waiver system may be all your club needs to compete not just in week 2 but for the long run as well.  In the short-term, players like Saints running back Mike Bell or Oakland wide receiver Louis Murphy can give your squad a welcome boost in production if you are lacking at those positions.  Both Bell and Murphy are owned in less than 15% of standard ESPN leagues and I expect them to continue to contribute even when the injured Pierre Thomas and Chaz Schilens return to action.  With that in mind, here are some other players to consider that are most likely floating around your league’s free agent pool.

Thing 1: This QB relies on accuracy and decision-making to accumulate fantasy numbers.  He is young, but a strong supporting cast of playmakers takes some of the pressure of him on a weekly basis.  In week 1 he went 22-36 for 229 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  Currently this signal-caller is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This QB depends on accuracy as well and with improved pass-catchers around him he will no longer be called upon to do too much with too little.  A very intelligent player (Stanford alum), he kicked off his season going 15-25 for 212 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  He is currently owned in 52% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is Trent Edwards.  I know Edwards isn’t the sexiest option at QB but I believe in the Buffalo starter just entering his second full season.  His accuracy is excellent and he has the arm strength to make all the throws.  With TO in town to relieve some of the pressure from Lee Evans and a very good receiving backfield duo in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, I think Edwards takes a big step forward this season.

Thing 1: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He had a decent week 1 rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries (5.0 ypc) and snagging three passes for 11 yards, though he failed to get into the end zone.  He is currently owned in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He also had a solid showing in week 1 gaining 55 yards on 12 carries (4.6 ypc) including a touchdown.  In addition, he caught one pass for four yards.  Currently, this back is owned in 13% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ahmad Bradshaw and Thing 2 is Michael Bush.  As any LL reader knows, I love Bradshaw but this is more a testament to Bush’s role with the Raiders (and his considerable upside in the event of a trade or injury).  I like for him to get the bulk of the carries in the red zone and score 8-10 TDs this season.

Thing 1: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and hauled in 8 passes for 103 yards but did not record a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team but this player can be counted on for production and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team as well but this player is a reliable target with the trust of his QB and is currently owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Hines Ward and Thing 2 is Justin Gage.  Like Ward, Gage is a gutsy wideout that will make the tough catch and keep the chains moving.  If he is still available in your league don’t pass up the chance at 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs (see also: Burleson, Nate – 23% ownership).

Thing 1: This TE moved to a new team and didn’t do much in the preseason.  Questions about the QB position have created some uncertainty about his expected production.  He made a decent showing in week 1 catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown and is currently owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This TE also changed locations in the off-season and had a quiet preseason before emerging as the leading option in week 1 with 4 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown.  With a young QB that will likely rely on this safety valve, this player makes an intriguing option and is owned in 0% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kellen Winslow and Thing 2 is Robert Royal.  No, that is not a typo for Royal’s ownership percentage but I don’t anticipate that number staying as low as it is.  Brady Quinn has shown a strong rapport with his TEs throughout his young career and the spot vacated by Winslow in the off-season may be Royal’s ticket to fantasy relevance.  He is not a TE1 at this point but he is worth a stash (especially in keeper leagues).

Thing 1: A big-name D/ST, this unit’s best days are probably behind them.  Injuries as well as a few off-season departures have robbed this group of a bit of their swagger and big-play ability.  During week one, they faced a poor offense and allowed 24 points without forcing a single turnover and are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A fly-under-the-radar D/ST, this group is an attacking bunch that will give up some big games but will also get after the QB, resulting in sacks and turnovers (fantasy gold).  In week 1 this unit shut down a decent offense to the tune of 7 points while generating 4 turnovers and 4 sacks.  They are currently owned in 4% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Ravens D/ST and Thing 2 is the Falcons D/ST.  I like this group a lot with the understanding that they are best when matched up against running teams with average passing games.  Elite QBs will be able to pick apart their secondary, but the Falcons generate one of the best pass-rushes in the game.  Be sure to grab them to take advantage of a juicy match-up coming up this week against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2

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I’m back with my big belly, my bigger brain, and my even bigger… umm…. feet. My feet are huge for being a relatively short guy, size 12.5, that’s pretty big. What I hate more than anything is trying to jam into a 12 or flopping around like a clown in a 13. Plus, only a few shoes have 12.5 – regardless, I’ve found another thing to be angry about, and I’m going to talk about it now. Deciding to go receiver happy in one of my drafts has gotten me no where, and it’s not because my running backs have disappointed. I snagged Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez and look where that’s gotten me – no wins, one loss, damn! Lucky tries to tell me to hold tight, relax, you’ll be fine, but I can’t help but hate the fact that I got expensive receivers when I would have been happy as can be with guys like Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, Wes Welker, and Devin Hester… Okay, damn, I’m sick of complaining – damn receivers! lets answer some questions…

Cozmo in San Antonio asks, “Should I sell Adrian Peterson now or wait until Detroit? I have some holes at receiver and I’m pretty sure I could get Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Eddie Royal for AP all by himself. What should I do? Can I really live with myself trading AP?”

Honestly, I would probably make that trade, but I’m a value whore, and certainly think all three of those guys will have solid seasons. All three have very low value after week 1 (because of their low output to start the year), and right now nobody’s value is higher than APs. However, it probably depends on the rest of your roster. There’s no point to upgrade a little and end up dropping solid guys in the process. If you have decent receivers, you might want to stand pat with AP, he looks like a 2000 yard back, and there’s no doubt that kind of production will keep you in games. But if you do have a hole, like you say, AJ and CJ and a guy like Royal looks pretty good. As always, see if you can get more somewhere else. I’m not sure you could get too much more than that, but shoot, it doesn’t hurt to try. AP might have even more value after running into Detroit this next week, but then again, I’m not sure he could have more value than 180 yards and 3 scores…

Dennis in Alaska says, “Last week you told me I should start Eddie Royal over Hines Ward, what gives?”

That being said, I also told you to start Julius Jones over Chris Johnson, which would have made up for that Royal over Ward advice. I still think Royal will have a huge year, and would probably start him over Ward again, despite their Week 1 totals. You can’t get angry at the single piece of poor advice that I give you when I feed you good stuff until you’re belly limits the vision when you pee. You have to understand, this is sport, these guys can surprise even the best fantasy minds – but I’m guessing you didn’t start Julius over Chris, or you probably wouldn’t have written in with frustration.

Dennis in Alaska replies, “Touche. I listened to the bad advice and left the good advice on my bench. It would have been about even had I listened to both. Well played. Thanks for the free advice. On that note, do you start Chris, Julius, Thomas Jones, or Tim Hightower this week? I need two.

No problem, my  man, just doing work. I would start Chris against Houston, he should blow them up. I would leave Julius on the bench this week, the Niners are tough against the run, and he won’t catch too many balls out of the backfield. I would probably go with Thomas against the Patriots. I don’t think the Pats will be great against the run with Seymour in Oakland, and Mayo on the bench. TJ should get plenty of carries this weekend. Tim put up good numbers, but I bet he never catches that many passes again, plus Beanie looked like the better runner, and I imagine he’ll take carries away from Tim a little this week against a mediocre Jags defensive front. I still think Hightower is a solid play, I just like Jones more. Good luck, hopefully I get them both right this week!

Do I trade Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Ward for Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Ward is my #4 running back behind Maurice Jones Drew, Kevin Smith, and Clinton Portis and ahead of Jamal Lewis. Boldin would be my highest ranked receiver in front of Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez. Deal or no deal?

Deal. I think Boldin will be a beast starting in probably Week 3, he might be a so-so play while healing from his hammy injury – however, it could also linger. I think it’s a good low risk play by you because when healthy Boldin is a Top 10 guy easily, and it’s not like Warner is a much lower play than Rodgers. You get some big upside while losing a time share running back and for this season probably lose nothing at quarterback. Kurt played poorly in Week 1, but I doubt that continues as long as he stays on the field. It’s not like Aaron Rogers has been the beacon of health in his career either. Take a chance, good upside for you there.

I’m out of here to write some receiver hate mail to all those fantasy guys that advised me to go WR late in the first round…. blast them!!!

Free Week 2 NFL Football Picks

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11-5 in Week 1, now that’s a nice start to the season. Week 2 has some promising games as well, and from the looks of it my thoughts pin me against the public in almost every game. I never try to go one way or another, but when I’m all said and done, and I look at my bets in comparison to what the actions is looking like, it’s always nice to see most of my games on the other side. Does that mean I’m going to have a huge week? Maybe another double digit wonder winner? It’s possible. A little value, a little luck, (even a lot in some cases) and you never know what can happen. Here’s to hoping I’m painting a picture of perfection…

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Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons: Call me crazy, but the Panthers are pretty good, historically, on the road. They are also usually pretty good as a dog, but to believe that you’d have to forget their opening day dog performance last week. Regardless, the Panthers aren’t as bad as the score from last week’s game. The Eagles are tough, but some big time mistakes got Carolina out of their comfort zone which just led to more mistakes. This NFC South game should be a lot closer, and I think the Panthers will play much better after one of their worst performances in a long time. Jake Delhomme should bounce back, I like the Panthers to cover in Atlanta.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-9.5): At first glance this one is tough for me to stomach. Take the Rams, a team I have claimed to be the worst in football, or the Redskins, a team favored by 10 that has shown very little ability to put the ball in the end zone with Jason Campbell at the point. But I believe in the Redskins offense. They played very poorly last week and still finished within a score of the Giants, a much better football team than the Rams. Campbell will be better, and the Skins will lean on the run against a run defense that gave up lots of rushing yards to a Hawks team that was without two starting offensive linemen in Week 1. I don’t see the Rams running with much success against the Skins newly revamped run D, led by Albert Haynesworth. Ten points is a lot, I’m not comfortable with the spread, but of the two choices, I think Washington is the better pick.

Houston Texans (+8) @ Tennessee Titans: From what I saw from the Titans last week, they have a very good run defense. But they have holes in that secondary if the offensive line withstands that immediate surge. I think the Texans were terrible last week, but not a terrible football team. So things have to even out. The Titans should have won against Pittsburgh, but some missed field goals kept the Steelers in the game. The Titans are solid, and should run the ball well against Houston, but the Texans are closer to the Titans than 8 points. This is a divisional game, and both teams should come in with a lot to prove. That usually keeps the outcome closer, I’ll take the points.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1): I don’t think this is a safe bet, but I’m taking the Eagles. Drew Brees will have more trouble finding open receivers in Week 2 than he did in the opener against the Lions, but the Saints will still put up points. The Eagles might be without their leader, Donovan McNabb, but in that case I think they might run the ball a lot more. With two solid running backs and a mediocre run defense across from them, that ball control style might help them more than hurt them. They are obviously better with McNabb under center, and he still might play, but I wouldn’t write them off if Kolb was the guy on Sunday. All things considered, the Eagles are the more complete team, and New Orleans offense plays right into Philly’s strength as Philly’s secondary is legit. McNabb in or out makes this game a big question mark, so unless you know what you’re getting into, I might stay away from this game. I have no choice though, so even if Kolb is the man, I’m riding the Eagles bandwagon in Week 2.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+5): I don’t like taking a team that played poorly, should have lost, and won last week. So I’m not going to do it. The Jets do lots of little things right, and their defense is stout. I’m not sure the Patriots will be able to stop the run with Seymour stuffing the line of scrimmage in Oakland and Jarrod Mayo out for a few weeks. The Jets have a very solid offensive line, and I think they’ll be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. The Patriots usually make rookie quarterbacks look silly, but Mark Sanchez might just be the exception. Sanchez doesn’t get in trouble with his feet, keeps very square, and shouldn’t feel overmatched by the Patriots mediocre secondary. I expect more short passes to Leon Washington, and Thomas should get close to 100 yards. The Jets secondary will be tested, but this game should stay close. 5 is too many for the home team.

Oakland Raiders (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: I’m sticking with the Raiders this week. I don’t think the Chiefs, despite last week’s very solid performance at Baltimore, are a good favorite to bet on. I’m getting 4 points early with the Raiders, and I think that is great value. Oakland runs the ball very well, which should keep the ball in their possession. I think JaMarcus Russell will feel a little more comfortable under center this week, and he’ll show what just a couple more accurate throws can do for an offense. He was consistently high on his deep passes last week, but through one hell of a ball on 4th and 15 with the game resting solely in his hands. That has to be a confidence builder. I know KC put up some points on Baltimore, but some of that was fluky. The Raiders are better than people give them credit for, so I’ll keep taking them with points and value.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): I like the Jaguars by just three at home. It’s a long way for the Cardinals to go, something they showed they didn’t like doing last season. The Jaguars will be better as their offensive line gels, and should be tough for the Cardinals to handle on the ground – something they did very well last week against the 49ers. I also think Garrard will have a better day. This game seems like a high scoring affair to me, with lots of big plays. But I don’t like what I’ve seen from Arizona, and I think they fall to 0-2 in Jacksonville.

Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Green Bay Packers: I hate to do this, because I think the Packers are a lot better than they played last week, but I can’t take a team that played poorly last week, pulled out a win anyway, and is now favored by 9 over a defense that looks much improved. I think the Bengals offense will improve every week, and from Week 1 to Week 2 will be no difference. People will look at this game and say, the Bengals suck, they lost to the terrible Broncos, but I don’t see it that way. I don’t think the Broncos are bad, they just aren’t great. And it took a pretty big fluke for the Bengals to get ousted in Week 1. Nine is a lot of points, and an improved Bengals defense should keep it closer than that. A couple big plays from Palmer and Chad, and this could be a big upset in Week 1. Survivor players, steer clear!

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Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ Detroit Lions: Hopefully for the Lions, they’ll figure out that Stafford shouldn’t be starting after this week and give the players a chance to win by putting in Culpepper. They’ve lost too many games in a row, and Stafford just isn’t ready. Every time he steps onto the field, pre or regular season, he’s shown me that he’s not ready. The Vikings walk in with a lot of confidence, and for good reason. Brett should throw a little more in this game as certainly the Lions will come out and force the old man to beat them through the air. That means quicker scores for the Vikings, because contrary to popular belief, the old man can still wing it. And I don’t know if 11 Lions in the box could stop Adrian Peterson completely. That guy is a super hero amongst men. I know the public loves this bet, and I’m rarely a fan of double digit favorites, but if I have to lean, and picking every single game, I do, I’ll take the Vikings in this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) @ Buffalo Bills: Give me the Bucs! They have a stellar running attack. Byron is a winner (despite losing in Week 1) and I only think they’ll get better as the season goes forward. The Bills took a tough one on the chin last week, and the Bucs played pretty well in a loss, too. The Bills have a little bit of a home field advantage here, but I think Tampa keeps this within a field goal, if they don’t just win outright.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5): I think the 49ers just play a tougher brand of football that makes a tough match-up for the Hawks. Frank Gore’s running style seems to eat up the smallish Hawks front 7, and especially with Leroy Hill out, Seattle should have trouble preventing Gore from averaging less than 5 yards a carry. I think San Fran will feed the man the ball, and that should be enough to pull a home win in Week 2. I like the Hawks, I just think on the road against a physical team is a tough match-up for them after playing the worst team in football. Nothing like playing against a softy before a physical team, that’s always tough.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3) : I thought the Browns played pretty well last week against the Browns, but just couldn’t hang on late as Adrian Peterson decided to go god mode cheat code on them. Cleveland will be better than I expected, but the Broncos are what I expected, and that’s a competitive team that is already playing tougher than they did the last two years under Splinter. Josh McDaniels had to get some confidence going after a miracle finish, and I expect Brandon Marshall to just come out and do good things this week. I think the Browns are more of a question mark through the air than Brett and the Vikings showed us, and I think Kyle Orton and company will take advantage of that with short passes and a couple double move deep balls. I know, I know, Kyle can’t throw the deep ball. We’ll see, I expect a couple long scores out of the Broncos and I think they cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens (+4) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers did not look good against the Raiders. They were outplayed much of the night. Now, it was the Raiders, so of course they ended up winning anyway, but San Diego won’t find life quite as easy against the Ravens. I like the Ravens to run the ball early and often and keep the Chargers from putting up much more than a couple touchdowns. Two scores won’t be enough to cover this spread, so I’m taking Baltimore.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+3): Everything about this game tells me to pick the Steelers… Besides this: The Steelers’ offensive line is pretty bad, just ask Willie Parker and his 19 yards on 13 carries last week… They played a poor game and should have lost last week against the Titans, but Tennessee kept pooping the bed every time they got into the red-zone area. So, they played bad and got the win, that’s almost always an auto-bet-against game for me. Chicago will make mistakes against that Steelers defense, but Cutler also has the ability to make some big plays too, and a couple big plays could be enough points to beat the Steel City. There’s no doubt in my mind that Cutler will be better in his second outing, and while the Steelers are very tough defensively, their offense isn’t strong enough to blow a solid team out. Chicago is a good team. Chicago has some big play threats, and Matt Forte will get more looks in the passing game this week. I think this one is close, but I’m going against the defending champs here. I want to take Pittsburgh, but last week’s slip-by and poor outing from their offensive line has me going the other way.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: At first glance I was thinking New York. They have great lines, and a very good secondary. And with that, they should be better than everyone. So, I’m not going to overthink this one and I’m just going with my gut. Sure, Tony Romo pulled some passes out and iced the Bucs last week, but I don’t think he can do the same against New York. I would consider the Boys if they didn’t allow a butt load of rushing yards to the Bucs. I know Tampa has a solid running game, but they were running over Cowboys in Week 1. New York can really run the ball, and they will against Dallas. I don’t like Eli Manning and the Giants receivers aren’t scary – but that group gets the job done. The three points make a nice cushion just in case.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (+3): The Dolphins didn’t impress me at all last week, but they are a lot better than they played, at least that’s what I think. I see them coming back and laying one on the Colts pretty good on Monday Night. I think they’ll run the ball very effectively, and upset Indy. The Colts had a lot of big numbers last week, but just barely snuck by the Jaguars. Now, that’s what the Colts do from time to time, but I think it’s because Indy just isn’t as powerful as they once were. Basically, I expect the same Colts I saw last week and a much better Dolphins team than the one that lost a pushover to the Falcons.

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football

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Hello all! Last week was the first run episode of Fantasy Focus, and the guys did alright. I took home the trophy, having the highest ranking picks for the week while Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, and Papa Weimer did pretty good work listing their Top 5 at each position. Josh and Ryan looked like they got together to do this in NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football, having very similar Top 5 lists, but I assure you they live quite far away from each other, and have much different hair colors. Like last week’s article, I also have 3 levels of nice plays for the week, and going along with those 15 upside picks, I also have five guys I wouldn’t want to see in my starting lineup this week. Hopefully I can keep up the good work! Hope you enjoy!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Michael Turner – Mike will get a lot of carries, and this week he’ll double last week’s yardage output.
2. Tom Brady – I know the Jets looked nice last week against Schaub and company, but Tom is a different beast.
3. Marques Colston – I think Marques has a big week against some DBs that struggle against big, tall receivers.
4. Steve Smith – Steve was targeted 13 times last week, I’d say he gets the same, but does a lot more with those looks.
5. Brian Westbrook – This is less risky than last week, Westy will be leaned on, especially if Donovan is out.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I still believe in Eddie, despite last week’s low numbers. Good match-up against Cleveland.
2. Ronnie Brown – A disappointing Week 1 has him falling down the charts, but I’d take Ronnie against Indy.
3. Joe Flacco– Flacco will see yet another defense looking to stop his runners, that should once again open up his air attack.
4. Joseph Addai – Addai had a decent showing last week, but he’ll be a Top 10 back this week.
5. Leon Washington – I think Leon gets more action this week against the Patriots, I don’t think the Pats match up with him well.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Michael Bush – Bush looked really good against San Diego, the Raiders will run the ball a lot against KC.
2. David Garrard – I like Garrard to be more accurate this week, finishing in the Top 15 amongst QBs.
3. LenDale White – Ignored as a starter, White will get a handful of goal line carries this week, and should cash in.
4. Mike Bell– Even as Pierre comes back, Mike is the power back Coach Dumb wanted, he’ll get enough carries against Detroit.
5. Nate Burleson – One more week as a sleeper for Nate, he’s still owned in not enough leagues.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Jay Cutler – Another tough one for Chicago’s new franchise QB, the Steelers are tough on any QB.
2. Reggie Bush – The Saints will run a lot against the Eagles, and Bush is the 3rd best runner in that backfield.
3. Steven Jackson – Big Al makes life tough on choppy footed running backs. Sit on SteJack.
4. Julius Jones – Usually a softer defense, I think the 49ers will be tough against the run this year, JJ doesn’ t catch many passes.
5. Patrick Crayton – After a big Week 1, Patrick got picked up in many leagues, I would leave him out against the G-men.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Peyton Manning	2.Peyton Manning	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner
3.Aaron Rodgers		3.Tom Brady     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Kurt Warner   	4.Kurt Warner		4.Matt Hasselbeck	4.Joe Flacco
5.Matt Schaub   	5.Aaron Rodgers 	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Drew Brees
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner
2.Maurice Jones Drew	2.Chris Johnson 	2.Michael Turner	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Brian Westbrook	3.Maurice Jones Drew	3.Darren McFadden	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Ronnie Brown		4.Clinton Portis	4.Maurice Jones Drew	4.Frank Gore
5.Clinton Portis	5.Brian Westbrook	5.Thomas Jones  	5.Chris Johnson

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Greg Jennings		1.Reggie Wayne   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Randy Moss
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith    	3.Marques Colston
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Roddy White		4.Jericho Cotchery	4.Andre Johnson
5.Steve Smith   	5.Greg Jennings		5.Calvin Johnson	5.Steve Smith

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Jason Witten  	1.Jason Witten		1.Tony Gonzalez 	1.Dallas Clark
2.Chris Cooley		2.Dallas Clark		2.John Carlson  	2.Jason Witten
3.Tony Gonzalez		3.John Carlson		3.Dallas Clark  	3.Zach Miller
4.Jeremy Shockey	4.Tony Gonzalez		4.Owen Daniels		4.Kellen Winslow
5.Zach Miller   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Chris Cooley

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Steelers		1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Steelers
2.Ravens		2.Steelers		2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Vikings		3.Redskins		3.Ravens		3.Falcons
4.Seahawks		4.Patriots		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Falcons		5.Packers		5.Cowboys		5.Vikings

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Free College Football Picks: Week 3

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My free college football picks of the week are looking like a high-win group. There are some lines that get me real excited for my first big winner of the season, and since I’m 4 games down (because of my 3-7 Week 1 effort), I’m more than ready to get in the green. Follow my NCAA picks from Thursday Night Football’s action to Saturday afternoon. I snapped out 11 picks this week, because, well, I thought I had 10 picks, ended up counting wrong, and didn’t feel like deleting one of my previews: a win for you no doubt… Big winner, big winner!

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes (-4.5): When a lower rated team is favored, I like the odds. I think Miami has a ton of ability. The players coming into that school are fast, physical, NFL bodied type guys. I am impressed with the Techies this year, no doubt, they have a solid rushing attack and one of the best runners in the NCAA’s. However, I don’t think GT played very well last week, and they still got the win, yet another situation I like to bet against.

Boston College Eagles @ Clemson Tigers (-6.5): The Tigers showed me a lot last week covering against Georgia Tech despite getting done in by 2 freakish fake field goal scores in the first quarter. They fought back to a tie after being down 21-0. They are a good team with strong lines on both sides. The Eagles don’t do much for me, and despite these two teams fighting good battles in the past, I think this one will be pretty one-sided.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+15) @ Oklahoma Sooners: Tulsa is pretty solid. They will play tough defense and keep the Sooners on their toes. Oklahoma should win this game, but it will be tough. The injuries and question marks still surround the Sooners.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+6) @ Maryland Terrapins: The Blue Raiders have looked solid in their start to the season while the Terps have looked dismal. This spread should be smaller, yet 71% of the public is still riding the slow moving Terps. I think Maryland falls to the small school Blue Raiders. They just haven’t played well enough to win games, and nothing seems to be getting answered in Maryland.

USC Trojans @ Washington Huskies (+20.5): If you don’t count last season, because, well, the Huskies were a joke, then you have to admit the Huskies have played the powerful Trojans well over the last couple years. In ’06 the Huskies lost by 6 as a 19 point dog. In ’07 the Dogs lost by just 3 as an 18.5 point dog. This year I got the Huskies as a 20.5 point dog, and I’m pretty excited about it. They have a tough offense with a stellar athlete/leader at the quarterback position. They have a coaching staff that is very knowledgeable when it comes to the Trojans. I like the Dogs’ chances to cover here.

Arizona Wildcats (+5.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes don’t look ready for the Cats. Arizona is one of the better unknown teams in the Pac 10, and the Hawkeyes have played nobody thus far. Arizona hasn’t really had a powerful schedule either, and they are not the best traveling team in the world, but Central Michigan was a pretty good win, a better team than the Hawkeyes. I think AZ’s defense holds the Hawkeyes under two scores, making this an easy cover for the Cats.

SMU Broncos (-7) @ Washington State Cougars: Fade the Cougars. ‘Nough said.

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Cincinnati Bearcats @ Oregon State Beavers (EVEN): The Bearcats destroyed Rutgers, then took care of a low-level high school team… Ergh, I mean small division team. Tony Pike is looking good, finally living up to some hype for the Cats, but does that mean they can handle Jacquizz Rodgers? I don’t think so. Rodgers has a question mark by his name, ankle ding, but I think he plays, and I think he rumbles. The Beavers have looked pretty damn god since half way through last season, and they came back to oust a tough UNLV team in Vegas last week. I think they are more battle tested, I think that gives them the slight advantage.

Florida State Seminoles @ BYU Cougars (-7): I think Florida State is athletic, but I still think people aren’t giving the Cougars their due. They have a tough match-up this week, one of their toughest opponents for the rest of the season, but I think the Cougars do too many of the little things right to be caught up in trouble against FSU. They’ll run the ball more this week, that should open up some looks downfield for one of the better college quarterbacks in all the land. I’ll take BYU at home, because how out of place will the FSU kids feel in freaking Utah anyway?

Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-1): I like taking the lesser ranked favorite, and the Razorbacks opened up at exactly that. This is a well coached squad with some very good players, and they are getting stronger every game. They haven’t made much noise since McFadden and Felix Jones left town, but I think they oust the higher ranked Bulldogs at home this week.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (-7): Don’t get fooled by Hawaii’s dominance over the Pac 10’s own WSU Cougars last week, there’s a reason why I tell you to fade the Cougars. But the Rebels are good, they do lots of things well and have an experienced team looking to win games. They should have got the W last week, and this week it will happen, in relatively easy fashion.