theRUNDOWN: Week 15

Posted on December 10, 2008 by luckylester

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 15.

QB: Kurt Warner vs. Minnesota: Part of me wants to take Drew Brees on Thursday Night, because he might just go off for 400+ yards and do the Bears in real good. However, I’m headed to Arizona instead, and I’m seeing if I can’t follow the Cardinals and Kurt Warner in what might very well be a 3 or 4 passing touchdown night.

RB: DeAngelo Williams vs. Denver: The Broncos have actually been solid against the run the last couple weeks, but something tells me that trend ends against the Panthers. DeAngelo probably won’t be that sore either, I think Tampa only tackled him a handful of times. Jon Stewart is probably a solid play as well.

RB: Matt Forte vs. New Orleans: I think Forte will have 100+ rushing and 50+ receiving, and maybe even a couple touchdowns against the Saints on short notice. Those are #1 type numbers so I’ll go with the rookie back for what I think is the 3rd straight week.

FLEX: Brian Westbrook vs. Cleveland: Part of me expects Brian Westbrook and the Eagles to play poor this week, well, because they are now supposed to play well. Tough team to figure out. That being said, bugger me if I don’t get on this train whilst it’s at a pace steady enough for me to jump on.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Minnesota: This one has the makings of a shootout, and I want this PPR superstar rocking the fantasy roster for my squad.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Jacksonville: The Jaguars aren’t good – Greg is, the Packers should do lots of running and throwing in Jacksonville – here’s me hoping the majority of those throws go to Mr. Jennings.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. San Diego: I’m riding the old man out in this one. He’s one of the best around, as consistent as they get, and San Diego isn’t much for stopping the pass.

K: Olindo Mare vs. St. Louis: Tough to throw my kicker of the week in Seattle’s offense, but why not? This guy is playing in St. Louis and the Hawks are bound to attempt 3 or 4 field goals.

D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland: This blitz-happy system scaring Ken Dorsey like he’s in some horror movie with frightening little kids that make creepy faces – sign me up.

PAPA’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Always going to be here? Yep.

Kyle Orton: Yes sir.

Seneca Wallace: I like the confidence Seneca is playing with right now, and honestly, I think he should be the guy starting in Seattle with Matt the way he is anyway. Obviously Hasselbeck doesn’t have his back quite right and Seattle doesn’t need to throw him out there for any reason.

Pierre Thomas: I want Thomas again this week – he runs very hard. Maybe this is why he was in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois. Still, I think BOTH running backs are solid.

Kevin Smith: The Lions are going to run no matter what, Smith is a good young back and the Colts (while the do have Bob back) aren’t the best run defense in the league. In a push he’s a decent option.

Jonathan Stewart: He’s one of the better starts this week I think. He will continue to get just under half the looks in big scoring games, and he’s a beast. Why not give him a shot if your other back is hurting and playing a great defense? (That goes to you owners of Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs- I think he outscores 3 of the 4 at least)

Domenick Hixon: After struggling last week, I think the Giants get their passing attack going against a Dallas secondary that has been playing better than they are recently.

Devin Hester: I still like Hester – this list is looking a lot like last week’s group.

Bryant Johnson: The big receiver is playing a lowly ranked Miami secondary, and he’s been pretty solid over the last four weeks – he’s worth a flier.

John Carlson: I would say he’s not a sleeper, but look at the numbers, in most leagues he’s not owned. This guy should be starting just about every week.

New England Patriots: They play the Raiders, and the Raiders are probably starting Andrew Walter. When he throws a couple picks or and then fumbles away a touchdown, who will the Raiders turn to? I doubt the answer will fair much better.

Papa’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Marc Bulger: Again, Bulger plays one of the lowest rated pass defenses in the league, again I wouldn’t start Marc Bulger unless it was an empty free agent pool without Seneca Wallace, Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington, and Jeff Garcia.

Tim Hightower: He’s basically been what I thought he’d be since taking over for Edgerrin James – and I still don’t think you should start him, especially against this D-front.

Jamal Lewis: I’m thinking Jamal might get about 16-22 carries for 50-65 yards, and I don’t think he’ll score. He might get a couple receptions with Harrison being out, but I doubt those will amount to much.

Randy Moss: It was prior to last season that this section was named after Randy Moss – funny how the world turns. Still, I think the Raiders will take this game a little bit personally, and there’s one DB in Oakland that will likely be assigned to hold Randy down. I’m not sure it’s the best move to sit Randy in the playoffs, but I’m going to make that move in my playoff league (but I have Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, and Larry Fitzgerald to start instead).

theRUNDOWN: Week 5

Posted on October 3, 2008 by luckylester

QB: Drew Brees vs. Minnesota: He’ll have to throw at least as much as Kerry Collins did last week, but when Drew throws 35 times he completes at least 25 of those passes. Against Minnesota’s leaky secondary I like his chances for a big day.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cincinnati: Is there a worse match-up for the Bengals? A really tough running back that refuses to go down against a defense that refuses to commit to tackling. Hmm….

RB: Matt Forte vs. Lions: Matt Millen just wanted to leave before a rookie put up 200 yards on his defense – I don’t blame him.

FLEX: Earnest Graham: I think Graham will go off against the most friend rush defense in the league. These guys in Denver are huggers for sure.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Buffalo: I know the Bills have been solid defensively, but with Boldin out I see a lot of targets for Larry, and I don’t think Buffalo can stop him even if they know it’s coming. They don’t have that kind of corner talent.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Houston: This is basically a free 7 catches for 100+ yards and a score -that’s how I see it.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: This guy is great. I’ll start him 16 times this year in my league I own him in, maybe even on his bye, who knows?

K: Rian Lindell vs. Ram-Rod: I’m sure I’ll look bad again here, but how can you not like the Bills kicker against this defense? (I know why, because I picked him to have a big day, that’s the best anti-pick you could have).

D: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit: Jon Kitna is a sitting turnover, and I don’t think Rudi Johnson will be going off for 80+ rushing yards this week – I’ll go with my Bears.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Phillip Rivers: Shhh…. Phillip is slowly becoming a must start. Don’t look now but Rivers is second to only Brett Favre with 10 touchdowns on the season. Yes, Rivers has more touchdowns than everyone’s favorite Cutler.

Trent Edwards: Trent will be throwing a lot as Arizona’s front 7 is stout against the run. I also see Denver being down in this one and Arizona putting up enough points to put Buffalo is shootout mode. He coudl have his best passing day of his career – yards wise anyway.

Gus Frerotte: I’d start him this week – he’s a nice option against the Aint’s secondary.

Steve Slaton: Slaton has watched his stock rise way up the charts with his ability to do it on the ground and through the air. He might be the tool Houston needs to upset the Colts.

Jonathan Stewart: If I didn’t have a sure thing starting option this week, or if my guys Jamal Lewis or Steven Jackson were on bye, I’d feel good starting Jonathan Stewart -but when will the Panthers get him going in the receiving game? He’s got great hands.

Brandon Jackson: He’s a big chance, for sure, but the Packers might have to give him 14-16 carries right? With Grant struggling and Rodgers on the pine, I think Jackson is a big sleeper this week against the Falcons front 7.

Bernard Berrian: I like Berrian for a second straight week. He’ll be more consistent from here on out – he’s a nice player.

Jerry Porter: Porter should be back to full health, and the Jaguars seem to need him. He could be a nice start in his first game action with the Jags, especially against the Texans secondary.

Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson: I’d keep playing these kids. I know that rookie receivers are supposed to struggle, but Royal has too much speed and quickness for the old man corners in Tampa Bay, and you know Denver will be throwing. DeSean is going up against an injury depleted secondary from Washington. Both are nice starts.

Kevin Boss: I think Boss is a good bye week, stop-gap player this week. Burress is supsended so he’ll get more targets. The Hawks defense is solid, but they still give up passing yards.

Carolina Panthers: The Chiefs don’t do work two weeks in a row do they? I’m thinking sacks and just a couple points allowed for a big Carolina day.

Papa’S Week 4 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jason Campbell: Despite his Top 10 start, I don’t like him in Philly this week. Even with the Eagles clogging up the ground game, I have a feeling Jason’s day will be mistake prone.

Julius Jones: He’s the Hawks #1 – 25 carry guy this week if the game’s close. But he won’t do a whole lot with all those touches. I’d just pretend he’s on bye again this week.

Clinton Portis: Portis got me last week with a nice performance against Dallas – not this week against an Eagle team that just lost. Philly plays the run better than anyone else right now.

Santana Moss: I don’t think he does it this week. I figure I have to start him in my leagues, but if he’s ready to have a bad game it’s this week against Philly – one thing on his side is the Redskins will have to throw the ball around a little.

theRUNDOWN: Week 1

Posted on September 3, 2008 by Papa Weimer

2008’s Week 1 is upon us. Thursday Night’s contest pitting the Giants against their in-conference rival Redskins makes for good TV, but does that match-up make for good fantasy fun? Hard to tell. I have a sleeper or two from that group, but as far as fantasy studs, I’ll stay away. These are my favorite players to start, some sleepers, and some guys to avoid on Sunday – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 1 – write this down!

QB: Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco: Last time Kurt played the Niners he approached 500 passing yards. He didn’t get it, but he surely sniffed it. I don’t think he’ll do that kind of colossus damage, but he should be one of the best starting options in Week 1. I’ll take him as my quarterbacking bell-cow.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Carolina: I have to take LT because he’s scored on opening day in every single season but one in his NFL career. That’s something right? He doesn’t have the best match-up ever, but he’s still going to show the Panthers a thing or two.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cleveland: I know the Browns got much better defensively, but I just have a feeling. This is wear I put guys down that I have feelings about.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Kansas City: Because why not? Moss is one of the best receivers in the game and he’s going to KC where nobody on the roster can guard him. Seems like a no-brainer.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Cleveland: Yes, I will start TO and Randy and smile the whole time. Cleveland’s secondary doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Cowboys passing attack – TO is a big reason why. The only guy I’d consider instead of Owens is Calvin Johnson, but I figured I’d start with Randy and TO and go from there.

TE: Tony Scheffler vs. Oakland: Without Brandon Marshall I just have to believe Scheffler gets about 10 targets on Monday Night. That’s good enough for me to give him the nod.

K: Josh Brown vs. Philadelphia: Brown struggled in the pre-season, making me wonder if Seattle can see the future. I doubt it though, why would they have resigned Shaunna Alexander if they could see the future? Its an ongoing joke that I can’t pick good kicking options- we’ll see if that continues through Week 1.

D: Patriots vs. Kansas City: I just feel like the Patriots are pretty good and the KC offense is horrendous. Is that wrong?

LUCKY’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Schaub: I think Warner could be a bit of a sleeper, but since I took him as my top option, he really doesn’t work here. In that case I’ll roll with Matt Schaub. I think he can do his part to torch the Steelers defense despite most people predicting a Pittsburgh beat down.

Aaron Rodgers: You bet – this kid is going to be good. Why not start in Week 1 against a suspect secondary?

Chris Johnson: He needs to make one guy miss and then run away from everyone else. I think CJ will be a lot like Maurice Jones Drew in MJD’s rookie run. Even against Jax, I like CJ as a sleeper.

Maurice Morris: It seems like a lot of people don’t realize it, but Morris is the starter in Seattle. They go up against a Bills team that doesn’t do many things great defensively. I am willing to bet that Morris is a double digit fantasy scorer this Sunday.

Matt Forte: This rookie goes up against the Colts. That’s what I’m saying. He’s starter worthy.

Nate Burleson: He’s the #1 target in Seattle and while that would normally give him the opposing defense’s best corner back, Buffalo really doesn’t have one of those. He’s a nice option on Sunday.

Roddy White: After a great ’07 season Roddy seemed to fall down in drafts for some reason. I wonder if it’s because Atlanta’s QB play last year was good and this year they have a rookie? Hmmm… Nope, they just cut the guy that started most of ’07. I like Roddy no matter who is throwing him the ball.

Robert Meachem: There’s a chance Meachem is the deep threat right off the bat in New Orleans. With Tampa giving Colston, Shockey, and Bush lots of attention I have a feeling Meachem could get loose for a couple big plays.

Zach Miller: The Raiders will have to throw the ball to someone on Monday against Denver. Miller won’t be getting blanketed by Champ Bailey or Dre Bly. So yeah, I think he’s a top 12 starting option this weekend.

Bengals: One would hate to ever have to start the Bengals week in and week out, but they should make some plays against the Ravens sputtering offense. (Yes, they will sputter early). There are worse defenses out there, and the Bengals have the playmakers to score a touchdown or two.

LUCKY’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Drew Brees: The proof is there, this high scorer rarely does a lot of damage against the Bucs – if you have a decent back-up option, start him instead.

Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson: I don’t think either of these defensive lines will allow a 100 yard rusher in Week 1 – even though AP and Grant are beasts, this isn’t a good match-up for either of them.

Bernard Berrien: I like BB’s chances to have a great season, but he just seems to get pushed around by the physical corners in Green Bay. We’ll see, but there’s a good chance that continues.

Willie Parker: I like me some Fast Willie Parker, but I think Houston is much improved up front, and they will make Pittsburgh beat them through the air.

It looks like I’ll have a nice little team on my bench this week.

Lucky's List: Predictor's Paradise

Posted on September 1, 2008 by luckylester

There are a few guys in this business that actually throw themselves out there for everyone else to see. I don’t always agree with these guys, but overall they are thoroughly entertaining and, at the very least, accept a little responsibility for their predictions. They don’t just throw out guys like Brandon Marshall and Marshawn Lynch as sleepers – they say things that have everyone in the game second guessing them, saying “no way”, and writing them hate mail that insists they are crazy. But I love it. I love when guys feel something and then put it out before the season begins. On the other hand, I hate when guys claim “I was saying that in the pre-season” without anything to back it up.

Well, as the season moves forward in fantasy football, I’m hoping to quote this article now and again to prove my predictions true. As crazy as some may seem, here they are for all to see. That’s right – 50 big ones for you, you, you, and you. Read my list, check it twice, some of it’s naughty but most of it’s nice…

50 Predictions that Have a GOOD Chance of Coming True

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Ronnie Brown.
Ronnie Brown will still have 1000+ total yards from scrimmage.
Brett Favre will throw multiple touchdowns in each of his first three games.
Shaunna Alexander and Michael Strahan will start a boy-band named, “The Gap-Tooth Goons”
Darren McFadden will rush for over 1100 yards and be a top 15 fantasy running back.
Rashard Mendenhall will rack up more fantasy points than Willie Parker – neither will be Top 15 backs.
Josh Morgan will finish the season with more fantasy points than Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey put together – thank you Mike Martz.
Despite the recent DeSean Jackson hype, Eddie Royal will lead all rookie receivers in the fantasy realm.
If they play the same amount of games (no injuries), Michael Turner will have more rushing yards than LaDainian Tomlinson in 2008.
Tom Brady won’t throw more than 35 touchdowns this season.
Calvin Johnson will eclipse these numbers, 80 catches – 1200 yards – 10 touchdowns (ps: pick him).
Chris Simms will be a starter before the season is over – somewhere not in Tampa.
Devin Hester will score double digit touchdowns for the Bears.
Kyle Orton will be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback in Week 1 against the Colts.
Marion Barber will be a Top 3 fantasy running back.
Steve Smith will have at least 3 multi-touchdown games, eclipse 1100 yards, and easily get into the double digit touchdown category.
Deion Branch will play in at least 12 games and finish in the Top 30 amongst fantasy receivers.
Chris Perry (if you can risk picking the walking wounded) is a great late round pick. He’ll have 1300+ yards from scrimmage and score 7+ touchdowns.
Drew Brees will lead the league in touchdown passes.
(Two of Three) Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady will miss at least one football game due to injuries.
Thomas Jones will prove to be a better fantasy player than Willie Parker, Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs.
Jericho Cotchery will be a Top 14 fantasy receiver.
Antonio Gates will be the top scoring fantasy tight end – don’t believe the bad hype.
Phillip Rivers will throw more touchdown passes than Eli Manning (less interceptions too).
Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in yards (receiving and rushing combined).
Chris Johnson is the NFL’s version of Usain Bolt.
One of the following 6 teams will make the playoffs – Dolphins, Raiders, Bears, Falcons, Cardinals, Rams.
Frank Gore will eclipse 1,500 total yards, 70 receptions, and score 10+ touchdowns.
Kurt Warner will be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback.
Maurice Morris will be a better fantasy back than Julius Jones.
Larry Johnson will rush for 1,300+ yards and score 12+ touchdowns.
Plaxico Burress will play in less than 11 games.
The Giants will finish the season under .500.
Chris Taylor will lead the Houston Texans in rushing yards and scores.
Anthony Gonzalez will have a similar year (give or take a few fantasy points) to Brandon Stokely a few years ago when he played with the Colts – 1077 yards, 68 catches, 10 touchdowns.
During the fantasy playoffs (week’s 14-16) Adrian Peterson (Vikings) will have more yards and touchdowns than any other running back.
The Patriots will win 13 games during the regular season.
Ryan Torrain will start at least 5 games for the Broncos later this season.
Chad Johnson will lead the NFL in receiving yards despite his shoulder ouchy.
Vince Young will throw more touchdowns than interceptions.
Lee Evans will score 10+ touchdowns.
Bernard Berrien will have his best receiving totals of his career – yards, catches, and touchdowns.
Wes Welker won’t match last season’s totals, he’ll eclipse them – (yards and touchdowns for sure).
Ben Watson will be a Top 12 tight end.
Four rookie running backs will rush for over 1000 yards (I’m thinking Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Kevin Smith – but keep your eye on Ryan Torrain, Jonathan Stewart, and Rashard Mendenhall.
The Eagles will not have a 1000 yard receiver – but they’ll still win 10 games.
Donovan McNabb will be a Top 5 fantasy quarterback.
Jake Delhomme will finish in the Top 8 amongst QBs.
Leon Washington will score at least 6 touchdowns while having at least 3 games with 100+ yards (receiving and rushing combined)
Barrack Obama will become president in one of the most lopsided elections in recent history.

There you have it, dig it, disagree with it, recognize it – just get ready for me to gloat when prediction becomes truth – I’ll keep tabs so you don’t have to!

Ask Papa Weimer: Last Pre-Season Questions

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Papa Weimer

Here it is, one more question and answer section from you guys to me – there were three pretty solid email questions that I thought would be good to share – these are them.

David-Bill-Bob from America writes, “What do you think of Ted Ginn as a possible receiver option this season? What about Robert Meachem, James Hardy, Devin Hester, and Sidney Rice? Can you rate that foursome?”

Oh yes, lots of upside here. Not very much sure-thing here, but who loves to play a game you’re sure to win? Not me – I’m all about the upside. Forget the Bobby Engrams and the Derrick Masons, I’ll wait longer and dance with the young-guns. I think Ted Ginn could be a great player in the Dolphins passing attack, but I doubt he’ll score many touchdowns. The thing that’s good about his situation is that Pennington throws short a lot and Ted is fast enough to get some separation early. As for the rest of the guys, Devin Hester is my favorite – he’s a touchdown waiting to happen, and even if he gets 60 catches this season, he’ll probably take 10 of them to the house. Robert Meachem could be the best of the bunch, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the kid coming out of college. He looked solid in the pre-season, and what a weapon he could be if Drew Brees finds a liking for throwing to him against single coverage. Sidney Rice is a nice sleeper – it’s said that T-Jackson is more accurate than ever, and with Berrian opposite Rice, Sindney should get lots of single coverage. I don’t know if the Vikes will throw enough to make Rice a solid start week in and week out, but the kid can go up and get the ball, which might be good for 6-9 scores as defenses will focus on the run. James Hardy was my favorite receiver in the draft and I think he has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie and the speed of the game might hamper him early. Keep an eye on him though, when he figures it out he’ll be a threat. I’d rank them like this… Ginn Jr. – Devin Hester – Robert Meachem – Sidney Rice – James Hardy.

Tim from Floresville, Texas writes, “The people in my league think I am crazy for trading Chad Johnson for Bernard Berrian. What do you think?? I only picked up Chad to trade him, his inconsistencies and the fact that Cinci has the 2nd toughest schedule against the pass this season made me trade him away.”

Tim, I think BB is a good receiver, but he’s not Chad Johnson. I fully understand taking Chad so you can trade him later, but I still don’t think you got the best value you could have by grabbing BB in a trade for him. If all you wanted was BB, you could have just drafted him instead of Chad. You likely would have gotten a better RB where you got Chad, and you still could have got BB later. You say Berrian didn’t have anyone throwing him the ball last year, but in reality, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even as prolific through the air as Rex Grossman is. I like Jackson’s upside, but even if Chad has a down year and Berrian plays really well, I thikn the best you can hope for here is a push. Even against tough passing defenses, the Bengals still ahve Carson Palmer and TJ Housmandzadeh to help take the pressure off Chad. Maybe the Bengals just crash and tumble, and maybe Chad is hurt and out longer than expected – and maybe Jackson shows maturity and tosses 20 touchdowns. I don’t know, but that just seems like a lot of maybes to hope for. I have BB in a few leagues, and I would definitely trade him straight up for Chad in every one of them. But no, I don’t think you’re crazy, I think you’re courageous. There’s nothing better in fantasy football than making a trade that everyone thinks you are stupid for and coming out on top because of it. That means you were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s the best. You definitely did your research, and I’m rooting for you. Also, Chad isn’t consistent, that’s true. Over the last couple seasons, he’ll help you win 3 or 4 weeks and kill you for the other 10. With a lot of single coverage, because of Peterson, BB could end up being a lot more consistent that Chad. Good luck!

T.J. in Alabama says, “Papa, you have any sweet predictions this season? Last year you told me that Randy was going to blow up and Larry Fitz was going to lead the league – both had huge years for me and I’m back for more. Any secret advice?”

Like Chef once said, “You’ve got to find the clitoris.” That might not help in this particular situation, but it does allow older men (like myself) to pleasure younger women, which in turn gives hope to mankind. Alright, alright, I was planning on a little, “This is how I see it” article next week, but here’s a little preview, T.J., you impatient bastard!

Larry Johnson will be a Top 5 running back this year, making him an absolute steal at the end of Round 1 where he’s getting drafted.

Drew Brees will throw more touchdown passes (I’m thinking 36) than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. That’s right, while I’m not a huge fan of Jeremiah Shocker, he will take that much pressure off of Drew because of the constant attention opposing defenses will have to pay him. I don’t think Shockey’s touchdown totals will improve all that much (he’s bound to drop as many TDs as he catches – so probably 6-7 scores for him) but Reggie Bush, Colston, and Meachem will all set their season high touchdown marks this year. Brees as well.

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Edgerrin James – this is no knock on James, because Ricky will outscore three of the following high-round picks… LenDale White, Earnest Graham, Ronnie Brown, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker.

Adrian Peterson extreemists are right, there will be at least one back that outscores LaDainian Tomlinson this season, but they are also wrong, because it won’t be AP – Marion Barber will lead all running backs in fantasy points this season.

And last but not least, Randy Moss won’t come close to his record touchdown catches of last year, but Wes Welker will score more fantasy points this year than he did last year – both are still great options to have.

Keep the questions coming, and stay tuned, I’ll be here all season! (hopefully the ticker keeps tickin’)

Big Names of Shame

Posted on August 18, 2008 by luckylester

Okay, maybe I won’t get all those things, but I will get great NFL players for less than their numbers insist. If you’re not picking at the top of your draft then you won’t get LT or AP. If you’re not the one guy making a first round mistake, Tom Brady won’t find his name on your roster either. But that’s okay; you can still dominate your league.

I’ve set up a little versus action below. I have a big name and a small name, both with very similar production and ability. A little comparison and contrast will help you on draft day. Pick the best player on the board, but don’t pick a name – this is a numbers game where sticks and stones don’t do jack and names will put you on your back.

Drew Brees VS David Garrard

From a distance, these two signal callers couldn’t be farther apart. Drew Brees is getting drafted in the 3^rd round of most fantasy drafts for the second straight season, while David Garrard, though finally being picked in fantasy drafts, is garnering a 9^th round pick on average, or is just about the 94^th player taken in Yahoo drafts.

But when you break down the fantasy ability of these two players, things get a little closer. Drew Brees may have the flashier numbers, sure, 28 touchdowns compared to just 18 for Garrard, and 4428 passing yards compared to Garrard’s 2509. You’d think Brees produced a much better fantasy season than David. Not by as much as you’d think. See, Garrard played in just 12 games, counting the game he got hurt. So, his 211 fantasy points over 12 games becomes a lot closer to Brees’ 302.

In fact, Garrard’s points per game total (17.58) was just about one point behind Drew’s total of 18.8 points per game. You might think that Brees is more of a sure thing, and you are probably right, but when it comes to taking Brees or Garrard, you might want to consider the type of receiver you can get in the 3^rd round compared to the 9^th round. TJ Houshmandzadeh, Colston, Holt, Shad Johnson, Plaxico, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker are all 3^rd round picks while Joey Galloway, Cotchery, Santana Moss, and Anthony Gonzalez are all 9^th round receivers.

Garrard may still be a little behind Brees, but last year was his first campaign as a starter and he likely has yet to reach his pinnacle. And in my mind, he’s a much better value around the 9^th round than Brees is in the 3^rd.

Peyton Manning VS Jake Delhomme

Okay, so this comparison isn’t going to trick many people – heck, I’d even take Manning over Delhomme, but for the price, Jake has to be more worthy of a selection. Jake is coming off a major surgery but, get ready for this Colts fans, so is Peyton. In fact, Peyton’s infection in his knee has me more worried about lingering effects then Jake’s elbow. But lets leave injuries aside for just a second and get back to a numbers game.

There was only one quarterback in the NFL that had more fantasy points per game than Jake Delhomme did last season. Yes, you guessed it, Tom Brady. An I know he only played in three games, but Jake put up 24 points per game last season, better than Manning (20.6), Romo (22.2), Big Ben (20.8), or any other quarterback without an S on his chest like Tom.

When you factor in that Manning is getting selected as the 12^th pick overall and Delhomme is riding 108 down the street, Jake gets even prettier. In 2004 and 2005 (his last two seasons in which he played all 16 games) Jake tossed 29 and 24 touchdowns respectively. He threw 8 in three games last season.

Listen, I’m not going to say that Manning isn’t a good bet to put up great numbers, he’s the definition of consitency, but Jake has had some nice seasons too, and the additions of Jonathan Stewart, D.J. Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are three more reasons to expect big things out of the Carolina signal caller.

Reggie Bush VS Frank Gore

Okay, I’m kind of cheating here because Reggie Bush and Frank Gore are both big names, and in reality, Reggie is a much bigger name than Frank – but not in fantasy circles apparently. In Yahoo Averages Reggie Bush is getting selected as the 62^nd player overall while Frank Gore is getting taken in the 1^st round of almost every single league, getting picked in the top 10 in most drafts. It doesn’t seem to matter if it’s a PPR league or a non-PPR league, Gore is still getting selected an average of 4-5 rounds ahead of Reggie.

I like Gore and think his upside this season is grand, but for the first time in his football career, I think people are undervaluing Reggie Bush. In leagues that don’t award points per reception (PPR) Bush still finished just 1 point per game played behind Gore – (10.4 to 11.5). In PPR leagues, it’s Bush that holds a 4 point per game played average over Gore. Now I know Frank played through some injuries during the season, and the 49er offense was abysmal, but Reggie had some struggles too and eventually went out for the season after his 12^th game of the year.

Reggie was expected to change the face of the league, be one of the best running backs of all time, and sprint all over the field like Walter and Barry Sanders and LT. And he’s obviously not that type of football player and this season people are out to call Reggie Bush a bust. He hasn’t looked great in the pre-season, but I still expect him to have a solid season, much better than the 60^th pick overall.

I would still rank Frank ahead of Reggie, but if you can wait and get Reggie in the 5^th or 6^th round, you’ve found yourself a steal. Reggie will always be a big part of the Saints offense and if you are in a PPR league, ride Reggie’s bad hype and grab him late, he won’t disappoint.

Earnest Graham VS Steven Jackson

It may be tough to call out Steven Jackson’s bum year in 2007, but I’m not willing to make him the 3^rd overall pick in Drafts right now. He’s a question mark, holding out from camp and such, and he’s coming off a very bad season (like most Rams in ’07). I think he’s better than the Jackson we saw in ’07, but to get his services you are blowing a Top 5 overall pick. To garner Earnest Graham’s name on your roster, you can usually wait until the 8^th round. To be safe, really go for it and grab him in the 7^th. Graham didn’t become a full time starter until Week 7 against the Lions, and he really took off from there.

At 5’9” and 215 lbs, Earnest plays a lot bigger than he is. He can really catch the ball (49 grabs for 330 yards on the season) and he had 5 or more catches in 5 of his last 10 games. Graham rushed the ball 222 times for 898 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry behind an exciting young offensive line in Tampa Bay. Despite not starting and getting big carry totals until later in the year, but still playing in 15 total games, Graham still averaged just two points less per game than Steven Jackson did in Steven’s 12 contests. He produced more fantasy points on less touches (275 for Jackson 271for Graham) though, which should further explain what I’m trying to say.

Steven Jackson has shown what he can do, and he’ll always get selected ahead of Graham as long as he’s in the league, but Graham is a much better value and even has a chance at out-producing Steven over a 16 game season.

Some people are worried about Caddy Williams coming back and stealing touches, but I wouldn’t let that bog me down. Graham has produced better than Williams ever has, and he just signed a new contract that should keep him toting the ball in Tampa. 3^rd or 80^th – you make the decision.

Wes Welker VS Anquan Boldin

This is a trick because these guys are both steals and you can get them consistently after grabbing guys like Torry Holt and Plaxico BUrress. First of all, Boldin always produces at an unreal pace when he’s on the field. He’s been a little injury prone, but the bottom line is that Matt Leinart loves to throw him the ball, you know, because he fights like hell and always makes a lot out of a little, and he’s always good. He’s getting picked later because Larry Fitz has been overshadowing him for the last couple of seasons, but don’t feel bad about taking him as your #1 or #2 wideout, he’ll produce like one.

Wes Welker isn’t getting much credit for his 112 catch performance from a year ago, but I don’t see why not. Many people don’t expect those numbers again, and I must say, I don’t think he’ll mirror those numbers either – I think he’ll increase his totals across the board. 120 grabs for 1200 yards and 10 scores wouldn’t stun me at all. Listen, the Patriots don’t go sign career special teamers to big long contracts for no reason – they knew what they were doing when they snagged Welker from the Dolphins. New England had a tough time getting Moss singed again, but Welker is already locked away. What does that tell you? You might not have expected Welker to produce like he did, but the Patriots sure did. That should mean something.

Yeah, I do what I want, even change up my own articles and throw the rules right out the window. It’s good to be me.

So there it is, a few versus games that should get you going. All I’m saying is, just because your team looks great on paper doesn’t mean they’ll produce like Fantasy Champs. Believe in the little guy and you shall be set free!

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