theRUNDOWN: Week 6

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Here’s Week 6’s action…

QB: Tony Romo vs. Arizona: Here’s the deal, teams haven’t been able to run against the Cardinals, so I see no reason that Romo won’t have a huge day. It should be a shootout, this game, or at least one that prompts a few pass attempts from the Dallas boys. I like Tony’s chances of 3-4 touchdown passes. Brett Favre against the Cardinals? Remember?

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: Matt Forte didn’t kill the Lions defense like I thought he would, but I’ll give them a second shot. Certainly this beast of a man can give Detroit the old one-two punch, uppercut, jab, jab, home run, yhatzee, 200 yards and a couple touchdown dance.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Atlanta: I like Forte a lot, even in a bad week against the Lions, Forte still scored twice and put in work during a Bears route. I’m willing to bet he comes out and plays well against the Falcons.

FLEX: Ronnie Brown: I’ve always liked Ronnie, and while Houston hasn’t put up terrible rushing defense numbers, I just get the feeling that Miami is giving Ronnie 25-30 chances to make point scoring plays. The ball in his hands means good things, and against Houston he’s bound to break a couple.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Seattle: The Hawks are lost, no doubt in my mind. Greg Jennings gets the ball a lot, and he is a beast when running after the catch. The Hawks are pretty trustworthy in that they allow big plays, you can trust them to do so. Lots of reasons to like Greg here.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Arizona: See Tony Romo, above.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: See Tony Romo, above.

K: Josh Scobee vs. Denver: The Broncos defense allows lots of offense. They are coming off a week where they actually played alright, so that’s unlikely to carry over to this week’s game. This one is in Denver, so long kicks are even more likely. This one has to be a good one, despite my kicking hex.

D: New York Giants vs. Cleveland: The Giants are legit. I thought they’d struggle, I was wrong. Their defense gets the J.O.B done. I like them against and underwhelming Browns team.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Jason Campbell: The Rams will pay all their attention to Portis, and respectably so. Unfortunately, that just means campbell will have to torture them. I think Jason is a nice play this week, he’ll finish in the Top 12.

David Garrard: Garrard hasn’t been the same accurate, problem free signal caller he was last year. But he’ll get back into the swing of things. He gets to throw it around on Denver’s secondary, so like I said, brighter days are soon to come.

Gus Frerotte: Still a nice option. 2nd week in a row.

Fred Taylor: I bet Fred scores his first touchdown and gets over 100 yards. He’s been a bad option thus far, sans one solid week, but Fred won’t be scoreless after Sunday’s tilt with Denver.

Willis McGahee: I like Willis’s chances to get his highest total of carries on the season, and while getting all those looks he’ll do his best work of the season as well. So far he’s been a terrible option, but he’ll pull it together against a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense.

Brandon Jackson: He’s a big chance, for sure, but the Packers might have to give him 14-16 carries right? With Grant struggling and Rodgers on the pine, I think Jackson is a big sleeper this week against the Falcons front 7.

Lance Moore: Against Oakland Moore might find more room to roam. Whew, tough one. No, but honestly, despite some alliteration excitement, Lance looks like a pretty solid play against the Raiders.

Steve Breaston: Boldin might be back, but Breaston has done enough to gain Warner’s confidence, and the former grocery bagger (Warner) has shown an affinity for getting the ball to 3rd wide receivers, so either way, he’ll be a decent option as a sleeper this week again.

Devin Hester: Hester has found the end-zone a couple times, and I still think he reaches the 10 or more scores I expect him to tally. Atlanta’s a good place to find one or two of those. As a waiver wire guy, you could have a nice bye week option here.

Greg Olsen: This young TE is a nice sleeper with Kyle Orton getting his wings recently – against Atlanta’s secondary he could be a nice waiver wire pick up with nice future upside.

Washington Redskins: Why? Because until the Rams prove they aren’t the worst team I’ve ever seen, it’s sleeper defense every week time.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

J.T. O’Sullivan: Martz always has his quarterbacks throwing lots of touchdowns and turning the ball over just about as often. Against Philly it will be more turnover than TD, and that’s why I wouldn’t follow O’Sullivan to the well this week.

Edgerrin James: James had a touchdown last week against Buffalo, and has solid numbers on the season, but he won’t be doing much in terms of fantasy production against the Cowboys. Sit him.

Jamal Lewis: Back off his bye, I still don’t like Lewis as a start this week. Until New York allows some offensive action, I’m staying away from middle of the road fantasy runners against them. Just like Julius Jones last week, Jamal isn’t the best option in Week 6.

Steve Smith: I would start Steve Smith almost every single week, because you never know when he’s going to break one and take it 80 yards. However, this seems like a down week for Steve, and if you have the balls, and a decent back-up, I’d leave Steve on the bench.

One for Wednesday: Week 3

I just thought I’d throw out some of my crazy uncle’s predictions that don’t look so good right now – ready? Here’s 13 big ones for him to dig out of his mouth with his foot…

  1. Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns. (this one isn’t going to pan out, bet your balls on that)
  2. LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (Chris Johnson is filthy good)
  3. Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (Splinter’s evil plan)
  4. Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (a long way from Top 10)
  5. So will Greg Olsen. (more drops and fumbles than catches I reckon)
  6. Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (injury, I know, and after week 1 it looked like a decent bet)
  7. Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (tough schedule thus far)
  8. LT scores in each of his first four games to start the season. (nope)
  9. Ryan Grant is going to be a beast – 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns are not out of the question (not with those hammys).
  10. Deuce McAllister will lead the Saints in rushing yards -even on 3 bad knees. (2 games in, he has 2 rushing attempts, seems like a longshot Unc)
  11. Tarvaris Jackson – 20+ touchdowns for the Vikings. (told you no)
  12. Marvin Harrison catches 80+ balls and scores between 8-12 times. (looks like a 3rd option)
  13. Maurice Jones Drew – 200+ carries for 1200+ yards and scores at least 14 times – and welcome to JD being a Top 5 fantasy pick for the next 4 years. (doesn’t look good for our main man)

****Now, he has some nice predictions too, but those will be recognized later, for now, these are the bad ones – funny how quick some predictions can look so far-fetched, huh? Viva la old man!

Five for Friday

Coaching Newbies: I just couldn’t get enough of Jim Zorn’s mismanagement of the game on Thursday night – I almost had to quit watching the damn thing. With four minutes left, Jim is huddling down 9. Interesting. Of all people, he has to know about his dink and dunk west coast offense – hurry up son! I like Jim and despite his shortcomings in Week 1 I think he will become a solid head guy for the Redskins. But doesn’t this show that there’s such thing as a rookie curve for coaches too? Its the first time Jim has ever been a head coach and he’s also calling plays – who does he think he is? Splinter Shannahan? Watch out for those rookie coaches, they’ll kill your fantasy guys too. Chris Cooley needed to get involved in this one – he’s a huge asset for the Redskins – yet he didn’t do anything. Talking about tight ends, do I drop Kevin Boss now that he didn’t catch a ball? Hmmm…

Premature E-drop-ulation: You don’t want to let go of a guy because of one bad week, but in the case of Kevin Boss, a guy that was probably a very late TE pickup for you, you might want to head in the direction of a Dustin Keller or possibly Greg Olsen. Either guy is likely to be available still and it doesn’t look like Boss is going to be as big a part of the Giants offense as Jeremy Shockey was. Plus, you don’t lose that much by dropping him. Contrary to this advice, I wouldn’t drop someone you were high on because of one lousy week. Dropping Eli Manning because he didn’t do much would be ridiculous. So don’t do it if one of your pre-season sleepers poo’s the bed in Week 1. 

Do Hate: People often won’t pick a player because they hate him, or the team he plays for. TO is a prime example. I’ve drafted with Eagle fans that won’t touch the guy. Defenses are the best. Late you can often pick up the Cowboys, Vikings, or Jaguars because so many people either hate them or care less about them. Take advantage of that. There are lesser versions of these guys on waivers right now. Just because nobody likes Brandon Lloyd doesn’t mean he’s useless – same goes for Antonio Bryant. Remember – at one time in their NFL careers, both of these guys were promising fantasy receivers, and it’s not as if they’re too old to get back the magic. Dream big, Hate as much as you want. Just don’t let it effect your fantasy cash winnings. Its true though, nothing is worse than hating your fantasy team and losing at the same time. I don’t suggest you do that either.

Dallas Does Cleveland: I’m not saying much about this except – watch. The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ’07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.  

Don’t do that: While rooting for your favorite team to pull a huge upset, please don’t be the guy that says, “I want them to win this, but it’d be nice if Tony Romo would throw a couple more touchdowns before it’s over.” That’s just not okay. You are a football fan first – remember that. Be loyal and just take the fantasy game as it falls. Rooting for a 56-55 game is just plain hopeless.