Tag Archives: Dustin Keller

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6

Posted on by

I’m back fellas, and with better advice than ever before. I got a hair cut (just the sides, don’t grow it up top anymore – know what I mean Lucky? Haha – haha) and a massage so you can only imagine how ready I am to share my fantasy knowledge with the rest of you. Let the games before the games begin!

Tory Mills from Sanitary Service says, “Papa, sorry to bother you with TE advice, but I was just wondering, which guy do you think would do the best work for me until Shockey returns to the Saints? I am thinking that my four best choices are John Carlson, Dustin Keller, Daniel Graham, and Zach Miller. You have a lean on any of these?”

You bet Tony, I like Miller. I think the Raiders are going to play worse without Kiffin running the show, because now it means that Al Davis is completely running the team, and that’s never a good thing. However, that means more passing, and while Davis would love to see Russell toss the ball 60+ yards on every single play, the truth of the matter is that Russell’s favorite target is a big sure handed tight end by the name of Zach. I think Keller has lots of upside, but the fact that he has to compete for touches with the “starting” TE in New York makes him a chancey start any given week. John Carlson started off really well, but with Engram back and Branch probably back for good here in a week or so, I think he loses his targets a little. Still, I expect him to be the 2nd best option in the group you listed. Graham is an interesting one, I’ve always liked Daniel, and his great blocking means that defenses can’t put good coverage guys on him all the time. He has all the ability to be a Top 10 TE, so if Scheffler is out for an extended time, he’s worth a shot. Still, I like Miller the most, and Carlson and Graham are close at 2 and 3. Keller’s upside is the greatest, but he’s a back-up TE that gets half the TE throws if he’s lucky. Good luck Tony.

Tom Thumb from the State of Shatty Sports Teams asks, “Should I pick up Bobby Engram, really, or will he just get injured in a dominoes accident? There are three other receivers I kind of like out there, but Engram seems like the best value in a PPR league. Let me know what you think, here are my other choices. Steve Breaston, Dominek Hixon, Javon Walker. Thanks in advance…”

Tom, I’m guessing of Washington State, it’s not easy being rained on all day and then dealing with the Hawks, Mariners, Sonics… err… Thunder, Huskies, and Cougars, I know, but you have to hold on tight, Western Washington, or anywhere on the West Coast for that matter, is a bad place for sports. People have better things to do than follow a bad team out there, and thus you get bandwagon monkeys every single year. I know, I’m from there – well I live there anyway. As for your question, yeah, I think I’d risk my waiver wire money on Bobby Engram. He’s a good receiver, especially good in that check down short pass go nowhere frustrating to watch take no chances play not to lose offense they run in Seattle. IF he stays healthy, I think he’s the best option here. I like Breaston, and think he has decent season long value as the #3 in Arizona, and more value as the #2 until Boldin gets back. But, I think Engram will get more looks than him, and in a PPR league those catches get big. Hixon has a lot of talent, but with all those options in New York I don’t see him getting the ball all that much. He’s a great get if Burress gets hurt, and just wait for that to happen. Javon, well, I don’t know what to say except I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole. I hope he turns it around, but until he shows some sign of a heart beat, I’d let him rot in Oakland where receivers often go to die.

My Prediction Early Returns

Posted on by

Okay, since my nephew blasted a few of my predictions, I just wanted to get some things straight. There’s still a long season ahead of us here, but after 4 measily weeks I think I have some good things going – I’ve rated all 50 predictions on a 1 to 10 scale, 1 being no chance of my prediction coming true, and 10 being a very good chance that it’s going to happen. Here goes nothing. I’ll do the first half of my prediction rundown this week, and the other half next week (if I’m not too old to remember).

  • Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.(1 It’s not looking good)
  • LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (4 LenDale is down 55-44 as of Week 4, and this Johnson kid looks good, but there’s still injuries and vultured touchdowns to come, I have a chance in non-ppr leagues)
  • Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value. (9 Four games and hasn’t exceeded 20 carries yet, getting just 10, 15, and 12 in week’s 1-3)
  • Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points). (8 Branch comes back this week and he’s chasing Nate Burleson’s Week 1 total of 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown – I think he’s got a great chance to make me look smart)
  • LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it). (I still like this one, but can’t really rate it yet)
  • Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens. (3 Has 100 less rushing yards than the guy who started the season #3 on the depth chart, it’s not looking good, but this could turn around in a hurry)
  • Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  • My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that. (10 Calvin is 5th right now even though he’s only played 3 games because of the teams’ Week 4 bye – I like my chances)
  • Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20. (7 I still think Ryan is the guy, but Flacco is better than I thought, he’ll be in the Top 25)
  • Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games. (4 He’s in the Top 20, yeah, but he has just 2 touchdowns thus far – the dual prediction is looking less likely than I’d hoped)
  • Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York. (8 Even after Coles crabbed 8 balls for 105 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4, Cotchery is still just 3 points back – I still think Jericho ends the season with 40 more fantasy points than Coles)
  • Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (1 – nope – Splinter doesn’t give him the rock at all – too bad, sorry about this one)
  • Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard. (1 – nope, Kurt’s still in, and despite 6 turnovers last week, still the guy giving the Cards the best chance to win)
  • DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career. (4 Jon Stewart has 45 carries for 197 yards thus far, DeAngelo has 55 carries for 201 yards – looks like a 50-50, and Williams is only on pace for 800 yards this season, it could still happen though, all is not lost)
  • Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (9 Keller is 11th thus far and he has just 12 targets thus far – he’s a shoe in)
  • So will Greg Olsen. (7 he’s 27th, but just a touchdown and 30 yards back of a Top 10)
  • Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (1 out for the year after one nice week)
  • Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions. (10 who else told you this? Slaton is 16th overall, the sure fire #1 in Houston, and he has 15 receptions in 16 targets in three games – that’s on pace for 80 receptions and he’s becoming more involved in the passing game. Yhatzee!)
  • Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land. (9 he’s #3 so far, and he only got 7 carries last week, I still think he’s #1, but I need to give some other guys a little credit – we’ll see – Turner’s had some good games too)
  • Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy. (7 who knows, I hope I’m wrong, but Westy is already down a game, and he might miss #2 this weekend, we’ll see)
  • Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (3 Fumble problems and an extremely tough run game schedule has me really worried about this pick – he needs to hold onto the ball long enough to get into the easier part of his schedule and then maybe I’ll get close)
  • Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back. (10 He’s #2 thus far, even in non-ppr leagues – got this one wrapped if he stays relatively healthy – knock, knock)
  • Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year. (10,6,1 – kind of three predictions here, it looks like its safe to expect he won’t get 15 touchdowns, I still think he’ll be a good receiving option in the Top 10, but I don’t think that, without Brady, he catches more balls this season)
  • Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009. (8 I like my chances, 0-4 thus far, Palmer on the mend, not a good game for Chad in the books yet)
  • The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year. (6 1-2, behind San Francisco and Arizona, but just one game back and getting healthier – I still like the Cardinals to take this division)
  • Neither do the freaking Niners. (6 2-2 thus far, but I like the Cardinals better)
  • Alright, there’s half of the predictions, some good – some bad – such is the way it goes. I’ll run the rest next week. Good luck in your Week 5 ventures!

    • One for Wednesday: Week 3

    Posted on by

    I just thought I’d throw out some of my crazy uncle’s predictions that don’t look so good right now – ready? Here’s 13 big ones for him to dig out of his mouth with his foot…

    1. Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns. (this one isn’t going to pan out, bet your balls on that)
    2. LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (Chris Johnson is filthy good)
    3. Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (Splinter’s evil plan)
    4. Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (a long way from Top 10)
    5. So will Greg Olsen. (more drops and fumbles than catches I reckon)
    6. Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (injury, I know, and after week 1 it looked like a decent bet)
    7. Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (tough schedule thus far)
    8. LT scores in each of his first four games to start the season. (nope)
    9. Ryan Grant is going to be a beast – 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns are not out of the question (not with those hammys).
    10. Deuce McAllister will lead the Saints in rushing yards -even on 3 bad knees. (2 games in, he has 2 rushing attempts, seems like a longshot Unc)
    11. Tarvaris Jackson – 20+ touchdowns for the Vikings. (told you no)
    12. Marvin Harrison catches 80+ balls and scores between 8-12 times. (looks like a 3rd option)
    13. Maurice Jones Drew – 200+ carries for 1200+ yards and scores at least 14 times – and welcome to JD being a Top 5 fantasy pick for the next 4 years. (doesn’t look good for our main man)

    ****Now, he has some nice predictions too, but those will be recognized later, for now, these are the bad ones – funny how quick some predictions can look so far-fetched, huh? Viva la old man!

    theRUNDOWN: Week 2

    Posted on by

    It’s Week 2, but don’t be caught up in the fantasy rush. This week there are some nice sleeper picks getting kicked off fantasy teams as we speak. We have two Monday Night games for the 2nd week in a row, and I can’t be more excited about the recent cast-offs littering my rosters. Here are my best, sneakiest, and worst plays of the week – enjoy!

    QB: Peyton Manning vs. Minnesota: Ideally you want a quarterback to be very good, playing against a week secondary, but also going up against an offense that can put points on the board. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that his rushing attack will likely struggle. This is the case in Minnesota this weekend – the Manning show will be in full effect.

    RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: Thanks for this. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers won’t abandon the run, and LT will put up ridiculous points against the Broncos.

    RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis: Think the Colts were worried about Kyle Orton last week? Nope. Did it stop rookie Matt Forte from running all over the Colts defense? Nope. Think AP will have a week to remember in his home opener this season? I sure do.

    WR: Randy Moss vs. Jets: I think Randy steps up huge now that Tom’s out for the season – it all starts in this game where the Pats are an underdog – nobody on New York’s defense is stopping Randy, and Cassel, if he’s smart, will give him a few chances to make plays.

    WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Minnesota: The Vikes will put up enough points to make Peyton throw it around. Wayne can torch the Vikes secondary. This should be a good play.

    TE: Heath Miller vs. Cleveland: I know Jason Witten was wide open all day against the Browns- it could have been just the game, but I’m willing to bet Heath will find his spaces as well.

    K: Rod Bironas vs. Cincinnati: I feel bad taking any kickers, but Rod looks like he should have a big day. I may have jinxed the guy, and he seems like a good fella, oh well – that’s my job, kicker icer.

    D: Giants vs. St. Louis: Sacks and then interceptions – seems like a Giant recipe for success.

    PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

    JaMarcus Russell: 220+ and 2 scores… Doubt me? We’ll see who is right. I’d say Russell outscores Favre, Brees, or Carson Palmer.

    Aaron Rodgers: You believe yet? Rodgers plays even better this week, keeps the high percentage but throws for more yards in a big Packers’ win.

    Chris Johnson: Is he still a sleeper starter? He’s going to kill the Bengals.

    Julius Jones: #1 and really the only option for Seattle’s rushing attack. They didn’t look great, but they get the 49ers in Week 2, I like that match-up for the former Giant.

    Laurence Maroney: Laurence Maroney will be a nice play this week. He’s a good runner, but can’t seem to get his hands on more than 15 carries – this week he will and 100+ and a TD is what I see from him.

    Antwaan Randel El: The Redskins may look out of sync, but Twaan looks like he belongs in this offense, like he was made for it I guess. Against a Saints defense that isn’t known for stopping much, I like him as a sleeper in Week 2.

    Anthony Gonzalez: He’s the number three, but he’ll be going up against a safety duo in Minnesota that can’t keep up with him. If he’s open, Manning will find him. He will be open, so, you get it right?

    Robert Meachem: The kid didn’t play last week, but if you need help, somebody probably dropped him and he’s on the free agent list right now. Pick him up and at least see what he does. I think he’ll do some nice things.

    Dustin Keller: He’s a nice mis-match problem with New England’s secondary – seems like a nice sleeper to me if you are in a Todd Heap bind.

    Cardinals: The Cards are better than advertised and they have Miami this week in Arizona. I like my chances with them as my defensive pick-up of the week. Houston against Baltimore also gets consideration.

    Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

    Chris Perry: Another tough team for Perry – he has lots of tough match-ups to begin his starting career – this is one of them.

    Steven Jackson: If you have a nice #3, don’t feel shamed to sit your 1st round pick – that’s why you drafted running backs high. Jackson won’t do much against the Giants defense.

    Chris Chambers: Not this week for the former Dolphin, Champ has him on lockdown.

    Devery Henderson: I know Colston is out, and Henderson looks like a nice option, but he won’t get as many looks as you think, and his 80 yard touchdown probably won’t come this week.

    Five for Friday

    Posted on by

    Coaching Newbies: I just couldn’t get enough of Jim Zorn’s mismanagement of the game on Thursday night – I almost had to quit watching the damn thing. With four minutes left, Jim is huddling down 9. Interesting. Of all people, he has to know about his dink and dunk west coast offense – hurry up son! I like Jim and despite his shortcomings in Week 1 I think he will become a solid head guy for the Redskins. But doesn’t this show that there’s such thing as a rookie curve for coaches too? Its the first time Jim has ever been a head coach and he’s also calling plays – who does he think he is? Splinter Shannahan? Watch out for those rookie coaches, they’ll kill your fantasy guys too. Chris Cooley needed to get involved in this one – he’s a huge asset for the Redskins – yet he didn’t do anything. Talking about tight ends, do I drop Kevin Boss now that he didn’t catch a ball? Hmmm…

    Premature E-drop-ulation: You don’t want to let go of a guy because of one bad week, but in the case of Kevin Boss, a guy that was probably a very late TE pickup for you, you might want to head in the direction of a Dustin Keller or possibly Greg Olsen. Either guy is likely to be available still and it doesn’t look like Boss is going to be as big a part of the Giants offense as Jeremy Shockey was. Plus, you don’t lose that much by dropping him. Contrary to this advice, I wouldn’t drop someone you were high on because of one lousy week. Dropping Eli Manning because he didn’t do much would be ridiculous. So don’t do it if one of your pre-season sleepers poo’s the bed in Week 1. 

    Do Hate: People often won’t pick a player because they hate him, or the team he plays for. TO is a prime example. I’ve drafted with Eagle fans that won’t touch the guy. Defenses are the best. Late you can often pick up the Cowboys, Vikings, or Jaguars because so many people either hate them or care less about them. Take advantage of that. There are lesser versions of these guys on waivers right now. Just because nobody likes Brandon Lloyd doesn’t mean he’s useless – same goes for Antonio Bryant. Remember – at one time in their NFL careers, both of these guys were promising fantasy receivers, and it’s not as if they’re too old to get back the magic. Dream big, Hate as much as you want. Just don’t let it effect your fantasy cash winnings. Its true though, nothing is worse than hating your fantasy team and losing at the same time. I don’t suggest you do that either.

    Dallas Does Cleveland: I’m not saying much about this except – watch. The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ’07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.  

    Don’t do that: While rooting for your favorite team to pull a huge upset, please don’t be the guy that says, “I want them to win this, but it’d be nice if Tony Romo would throw a couple more touchdowns before it’s over.” That’s just not okay. You are a football fan first – remember that. Be loyal and just take the fantasy game as it falls. Rooting for a 56-55 game is just plain hopeless.