Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Free Football Pick

no banners

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-4) Free Football Pick: This line moved up after I took the Texans, going up to 4.5 despite seeing the public bet go the way of the visiting Titans. Interesting. Maybe the public sees that the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Maybe the public is smitten with the Titans current three game winning streak after starting the season 0-7. Maybe people are seeing that Vince Young is a winner, and the Titans haven’t loss since the former Texas Longhorn got back in the starting line-up. Or maybe they see the Titans’ dominance over the last 9 games, winning 7, covering 5 of the last 7.

But I see the Titans this year, and the Texans are a different team this time around as well. I think Tennessee is somewhere in-between how they started and their last three games, not one or the other. They aren’t a dominant football team, they aren’t a winless squad either. Don’t get it twisted and think that just because they’ve won 3 in a row they are back to the team they were a year ago. Oh no, oh no. They don’t have that defensive power or swagger for that matter.

And the Texans, like I said, they aren’t the .500-ish team they’ve been the last few years, they are a team that played solid football in all but one game this season. On the road against teams like Arizona, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Cincinnati – they may just be 2-2, but they have only one loss by more than a touchdown this season. They have a very good passing attack, a rushing game that can be explosive, and a defense that has played very well over the last 4 weeks.

They may not be the popular pick this week, but the better team at home by just four on Monday Night Football seems like an easy bet to me.

Papas Picks: Week 11 NFL Underdogs! Jets, Raiders, Rams

I’m buying what the dogs are selling. That’s right, I believe last week’s winners weren’t a fluke. I’m going back to them and the big points they are getting!

no banners

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Vince is back baby! Okay, maybe Chris Johnson is the guy flourishing, but the Titans continue to win when Vince is at the helm, undefeated since his return to the top spot, and I think that continues. They were good last year, they’ve been good lately! I’m buying in for +4.5! You bet!

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+10): Yeah, I know, the Rams didn’t win last week you say, well they did in my book, and every other sports book. As you well know, the winners don’t always win in this game. The Rams have been awesome on the ground, running on everyone lately – that has to continue for them to have a chance, but the Cardinals are known to throw up a stinker form time to time – and Steven Jackson can keep the Rams close.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): What do all the Saints recent struggles have in common? Well, they’ve won them all, but they’ve lost ATS or struggled in games Sedrick Ellis has missed. He’s out again, and with no dominant run stuffer to clog the middle, the Saints D just ins’t the same. Plus, Tampa has played well of late, giving many a team hell. The rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has been plenty good to cover them spreads.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5): I can’t believe I’m getting 11.5 for the Chiefs in KC. That’s awesome. The Steelers have blown two teams out this year, and the Chiefs (while only winning two of their last 5) have covered 4 games in their last 5 chances. The short passing game of the Chiefs should cut down on the Steelers explosive blitzes, I think the Chiefs cover their 5th in 6 games.

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys: I like the Redskins here. What can I say, their defense is too good to get 11 from Dallas, and this is a big rivalry game. The Redskins may be 3-6, 2-6-1 ATS, but they’ve had some close games against good teams, and they won last week, beating up on the Broncos. I believe!