Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: NFL Week 17 Predictions

I hate to do this, really, the Bills favored by 7 points seems disgusting, but it’s going to be against Indianapolis and their second team, as I’m sure Peyton and crew won’t make it out of the first quarter. Will that be enough? I’m not sure, but I’m willing to bet that mediocre Colts run defense doesn’t stop the Bills rushing attack that has been solid of late (don’t get tricked by their relatively solid ranking, they are ranked high against the run because opponents are forced to pass against them).

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Just like last week when I was all over the Jets, this week should be more of the same. I know the Colts second string guys aren’t nothing, and maybe Indy will run the ball with some success against Buffalo – but the Bills have proven they can gang up on one aspect of an opponents offense and play pretty well – when one-sided offenses come to town, the Bills have some success. Well, I see the Colts coming in and trying to run more than they pass, and the Bills ganging up on that and holding it pretty well in check.

Buffalo doesn’t need a win and it will only pull them away from a better draft pick, but they’ll try to win, at least Jauron will, I mean it’s nice to win in your last game, right?

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: Sure, the Falcons won last week in a game they probably didn’t have any reason to win – they were playing with nothing to gain, with some key injuries, and a banged up defense that had struggled all season – but they won anyway. And the Bills, well, they lost again. But it’s not that easy, and I really think the Bills are playing their best football of the season while Atlanta just made a win out of a situation where their opponent just couldn’t put them away. Another loss and a Falcon win helped this spread be what it opened at, and getting the Bills at +9 seems like a deal to me.

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Shoot, at one book, you can even get the Bills at +9.5 – which is definitely better than 9. 35-24, 27-18, 30-20 – I’ve seen those happen a lot, 9 point games aren’t crazy, so if you can get that extra half point, that’s nice – but I think this game will be closer than 9. First of all, the Bills love to run the ball, and run it they will. 2nd of all, getting up to play a Jets team with playoff aspirations is one thing, but getting up when you have no chance at the playoffs against the 5-9 Buffalo Bills is a completely different deal. To put it simply, I don’t see the Falcons coming out and doing that.

Atlanta has played in close games all season long, winning only 3 games by more than 8 points, and playing plenty of close games in which they lost. The Bills have played in plenty of close games lately, and despite winning just 2 of their last 5, have finished within a touchdown or less in each loss. Look for this one to be close.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons

Week 15 NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Week 15 NFL Picks, New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Are the Patriots better than the Bills? You bet, but there’s something to be said about the perfect match-up, and how can you not take a team that plays with anybody during the first three quarters, only to lose most of their games in the 4th – against a team that plays well in the first half, only to struggle and let their opponents back in the game in the 2nd? How can you? Oh, I know, you can’t because these are the Patriots and the Bills are the underdog, and for that reason I can at least respect you – but I have to take the underdog, because not only are the Bills playing better football, smarter football, but they’ve played the Patriots tough once already, in a game they should have won, and they’ve played pretty tight games with New England in the last three match-ups. But mostly, this is the Bills Super Bowl, a chance to pile on a tough season for the playoff bound Patriots, a chance to get a big win.

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The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 games, and have played pretty good football in each of their last 4 contest, winning ATS in three of them, and falling by just 6 to the Jets.

The Patriots are just 1-5 on the road, and their one win came as the “road team” in a game played in England – not New England, regular old across the Atlantic Ocean, England. So yeah, they are winless on the road this season, and quite honestly, they’re probably playing their worst football of the season. Asking for the Bills to win outright might be a little much, but as 7.5 point dogs, I like their chances.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5)

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Free Pick

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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Free Pick: The Buffalo Bills aren’t a good football team, I’m not trying to twist it that way at all, and playing at Kansas City is never an easy task (despite what Denver made it look like last week), but the Bills are a much better team than the Chiefs. Kansas City, defensively, can’t seem to stop anyone, and while the Bills have bad defensive numbers, they’ve done alright this season when they are allowed to gang up on one aspect of an opposing offense – I’m not saying they can give it all to the run or pass in KC, but they can put just about everyone of their guys within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage, because that’s where the Chiefs have been doing their dirty work – and offensively, the Chiefs are pretty grimy.

The Bills are 4-8 this season, and while it’s almost impossible to find a good 4-8 team, the Bills are about as close as you can get. They’ve been in almost every single game they’ve played going into the 4th quarter. From that point forward, sure, they’ve struggled, but at 4-8 they average 5 points less than they give up on the season. Putting that into perspective, the Chiefs give up 11 more points per game than they score. I’m not going into any details, but if you look at box scores from the Bills games this season, you’ll often see a 3 point game going into the 4th – they have played decent – and they’ve played even better lately.

The Bills have played a very tough schedule, and the only teams with losing records that they’ve lost to are the Titans (and they’ve been pretty good lately), the Texans (who can play with anyone), and the Browns (who suck, but just beat the tumbling Steelers). They generally beat bad teams, they’ve done so 3 times this year, and I think they do it again in KC.

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Kansas City Chiefs

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Week 13 Free Pick

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New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Week 13 Free Pick: The New York Jets have had an up and down year, or should I say it started way up and has since crashed fairly violently down. Now, they are still just 5-6 and though they have some work to do, they could get hot and possibly see a playoff spot appear before their little green helmets by years’ end – it’s a long shot, but it’s not like a Buffalo Bills longshot. That being said, the Bills have played some decent football since that Dick… Jauron, got fired. So will the jets press on and with their second straight games for the first time since September 27th? Or will the Bills find a big win against a division rival for the second time in as many weeks?

Well, the Jets lost this one last time out, and if they lost to the Bills yet again, that would make them finish the season with a 1-5 record with-in their division, the only win coming at home against New England in Week 2 of the season. But I think the Jets can walk away with victory here. They have a better defense, and a better running game – if they know what’s good for them, have any idea whatsoever, then Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene will both end up with more runs than Mark Sanchez has pass attempts.

Now the Bills have shown an ability to do well against offenses where all they have to do is focus on on aspect, and that will be the case here, but playing well and winning are two different things. I think the Bills play well, and this stays close, but I like the Jets to play mistake free football and win.

New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick

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Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick: I’ve been a big supporter of the Bills, saying often that they aren’t as bad as people think, and sure, sometimes that has kicked me right in the butt (see the Titans/Bills game a couple week ago when the Bills were right with Tennessee until they gave up 300 points in the 4th quarter, again) and sometimes it’s worked out for me (see last week’s game against the Jaguars), but I think this match-up ends up being just a little too tough for the Bills.

Usually, if Buffalo’s defense needs to focus on just one aspect of an opposing offense (just the run or just the pass) they do a pretty good job of making that tough for their opponent. But this is Miami, and they will pretty much run on anyone, and they won’t abandon that idea. Even without Ronnie Brown, they still have one of the more talented run blocking offensive lines in the league, and a great running back filling in as the full time guy – you might remember him from the Saints – or pre-marijuana Dolphins, Ricky Williams. Yeah, Ricky is back, folks, and he’s better than ever – or at least better than you think.

The Dolphins have won 3 of their last 4, covering in 3 of those games as well. Over their last 7 games they are 5-2 straight up and against the spread as well, and they have given fits to some very good teams this season, New Orleans, New England, Indianapolis, etc. – they are a good team. Not always the luckiest, but good nonetheless.

The 3 points shouldn’t be too much, I like the Bills, think this one will be close, but 27-17 is what I’m thinking.

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I liked the Jaguars a lot coming into the season, and while they’ve played well lately, they still haven’t show enough for me to ever take them as a 9 point favorite, even against a Bills team that JUST fired their coach on Tuesday, seemingly has been outscored 4000 to 17 in 4th quarters during the first 9 games, and is among the league’s worst in stopping the run (something Jacksonville heavily relies on to succeed). Basically, the Bills defense is a good match-up for the Jags, and I’m still not taking the big favorite.

Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars twice in the last 3 seasons despite being the underdog in all three games. Teh Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against the Jags since 1998, they have won 5 of the last 7 match-ups. Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville 3 of the last 4 times, and I’m sorry to say this, but Buffalo just isn’t as bad as their record (and 4th quarter play) is trying to tell you.

Now, there’s the whole coaching thing, and I want to let everyone know, I picked this game prior to Dick Jauron’s dismissal, but I actually like my chances better since the forever mediocre coach’s departure early Tuesday Morning. There’s two ways a team can go, they can be excited for the new guy or disappointed about the old guy’s departure. I’m guessing this will be option one. If anything, the new coach might pull his head out of the dirty smelling hole Dick Jauron was stuck in and get the Bills to do what they do best, run the damn football. If they do that against the Jags, this cover is as sure as they get. I’m taking a chance here, that’s for sure.

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Free Pick & Preview

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Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans Free Pick & Preview: I got this game at +7.5 and was stoked about it. Yet every “expert” on Covers seems to love the Titans to cover by a touchdown at home. 66% of the public has their money on the Titans. All this and the spread has actually moved in the Titans favor, right now you can get them at just under a touchdown in most books. I guess it opened at -6, ran to -7.5, and has found a cozy little home at 6.5 – oh the life of the spread…

I see what the public sees here, and who knows, that might be the way it goes this Sunday. I see Chris Johnson and Vince Young and that Titan rushing attack that has been dominant like everyone expected them to be all season. I see Buffalo’s injury ridden defense and the fact that they can’t stop the run very well when they are healthy anyway. I see two straight wins for the Titans, and a 10-31 loss to the Texans and a bye week for the Bills. You know, when you lose big before your bye, the public basically counts that as two losses. So there you have it, this is the view from the public tree – and it’s all pretty accurate.

But what they are missing is the fact that Buffalo has actually played pretty well in most their losses. They were leading Houston 10-9 before Matt Schaub went all Tom Brady on the Bills defense, and Ryan Moats scored three 4th quarter touchdowns to ice it and make it look a lot more lopsided than it was. I see a 24-25 loss to New England that Buffalo, frankly, should have won. They beat up on Tampa Bay – they played tight with New Orleans until the 4th quarter (very similar to Houston), and they beat the Jets and Panthers before losing to Houston. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games, have only really been beaten up by the Jets, and are playing a Titans team, that despite the public’s admiration and respect, have just 2 wins in 8 games this season. Plus, the Bills have played their best football on the road.

Needless to say, I think 7 points is way too many. 7.5 is even better!

Ten for Tuesday: Week 8 NFL Football

It is nice to see Eli Manning switch back to the pouty-faced Ellie that I’ve known and loved for so long. Ellie is back to his inaccurate throws, shame-faced box crab looks, and more importantly, the Giants losing games. Not only did they lose on Sunday, but the Eagles just absolutely destroyed them. The Giants have fallen in love with this Eli guy, the guy they gave more money too than any other team pays any other quarterback, but with Eli you get Ellie, and that’s the guys playing right now…..   I had forgotten, but Steven Jackson is one of the best players in football. How do I know that? Well, while everyone else in America was watching a good football game, I was viewing the car-wreck that was Detroit hosting St. Louis. There’s something about it, I just couldn’t keep my eyes off of this game. Nobody should have to see something like that, but here I was, in awe. Steven Jackson was straight beasting everybody on the Lions team. I think he even had time to boo Matthew Stafford. While watching the game I learned a couple more things…    Marc Bulger is a terrible quarterback. Despite not getting much offensive line help, it’s hard for me not to tear into this guy. He steps backward every time he throws, setting his receivers up to get blasted, he’s gun shy, he’s basically the opposite of everything good. His best day isn’t close to Ellie’s saddest tear-filled outing….    And once again, the all stars from these two teams couldn’t get together to win more than 5 games. Steven Jackson would still be trying to carry the team on his back while a poor quarterback option failed to get the ball to Calvin Johnson. The offensive line would be a little better, but still not good. The Defensive line would have a couple players to rush the pass, but still get eaten up on the ground, and the Ramlion secondary would still get eaten up by opposing quarterbacks. All that and they would not get to play each other, what car-wreck of a game would I watch then?

It’s hard for me to say that Shawn Merriman is back, but at least he’s got a couple sacks to his name. The “Lights Out” dance artist himself was back in action. It seems like playing against the Raiders shouldn’t even count for season stat totals, but the bottom line is that the NFL still recognizes the Raiders as a team, and Merriman’s two sacks against “NFL Starting QB” Jamarcus Russell were his first sacks of the season…..     Speaking of JaMarcus Russell, I can’t even stand behind this kid anymore, it’s not his poor ability to see the field (see tunnel vision), or his consistent practice of overthrowing receivers, it’s not even his lack of mobility and terrible footwork, I don’t even think it’s his hideous work ethic and carelessness, but his absolute lack of reality kills me. After the game this guy had the mental clown work to claim that he played well. If you play crappy, at the very least you can keep your mouth shut and just try harder. JaMarcus obviously has problems keeping his mouth shut…..

Marques Colston is borderline unguardable. Drew Brees likes to get everyone involved, hitting open receivers all over the field, but when things get tight and Drew needs that 15 free yards, he just throws a ball about 12 feet in the air in the direction of Colston. Colston has great jumps for a big guy, and even more impressive are his ball skills. He always grabs the ball at the height of his jump, and his timing is perfect….   The Titans finally got a win, and I have to be honest, Vince Young had something to do with that. He may have looked uncomfortable at times, and his 15 for 18 passing performance may look better than it actually was, but his 12 rushes for 30 yards were bigger than they looked. Defenses have to pay attention to him. But even more important than anything Vince did was how the Titans called plays with Vince in there. They went back to being a run-centric team, throwing just 18 times while rocking 49 attempts on the ground. If it takes Vince to get that coaching staff to commit to what makes this offense good, then Young’s presence is more important than anyone gives him credit for……

I really appreciate John Fox pulling his own head out of his tail pipe just in time to eliminate me from a survivor pool, but what took so long? You have an overpaid game-managing quarterback with two great running backs and an offensive line that consistently mauls opposing defensive lines. Yet this guy fell in love with throwing the ball when he was down a few points. Maybe it was his offensive coordinator, but that is the head coach’s fault too. If I have Jake Delhomme at QB, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart running the ball, I’m running the ball 70% of the time at the very least….  Speaking of offenses that don’t know who they are, how long can Bills coaches have jobs in Buffalo? Their game against Houston was a situation where their run game was working. They were up for 3 quarters, have two very good running backs, have no good quarterbacks, and yet you have Lynch and Jackson getting just 9 rushes each. Ridiculous. It makes me sick.

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Pick & Preview

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Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Bills have feasted on opposing quarterbacking mistakes – but I’m sorry, Matt Schaub isn’t a rookie and he’s definitely not Jake Delhomme. Also, the Texans don’t need to pass the ball to win, and the Bills can’t focus their defense on one thing the Texans do to win. Houston can win a lot of ways, and they have a lot of weapons. If you haven’t noticed, Matt Schaub has become one of the better QBs in the NFL. He can throw the ball against anyone, and he has. The Bills’ defense still has a lot of people either missing from or questionable in Sunday’s game. They have an offense that is limited at best. Despite Houston’s history they have been better defensively of late. Sure, the 49ers got back in the game in the 2nd half last week by finding Vernon Davis for 3 touchdowns, but the Texans shut down one of the better rushing attacks in the league, and have shown the ability to make opposing offenses do something they don’t want to do. In a shoot out, the Texans get the nod. In a close game, the Texans have the ability to make that big play that wins the game. They are favored by a field goal on the road, something that has been scary for Texans’ backers for a long time. But this team is a little different. I expect them to battle for a playoff spot, they know this one is important with some big games against solid teams coming up – they have to beat the teams that they are supposed to beat. I’m taking the Texans by a field goal and expecting them to win by a touchdown, maybe two.