Tag Archives: Tennessee Titans

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football

Posted on by

Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.

PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning	1.Tom Brady		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees		2.Drew Brees		2.Peyton Manning	2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady		3.Matt Ryan		3.Chad Pennington	3.Peyton Manning
4.Jay Cutler		4.Aaron Rodgers		4.Donovan McNabb	4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Phillip Rivers	5.Peyton Manning	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Matt Schaub

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner	1.DeAngelo Williams
2.DeAngelo Williams	2.DeAngelo Williams	2.Adrian Peterson	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Steven Jackson	3.Matt Forte		3.LaDainian Tomlinson	3.Maurice Jones Drew
4.Ray Rice		4.Reggie Bush		4.Frank Gore		4.Adrian Peterson
5.Willie Parker		5.Knowshon Moreno	5.Ryan Grant		5.Ronnie Brown

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson		1.Calvin Johnson	1.Steve Smith		1.Randy Moss
2.Reggie Wayne		2.Terrell Owens		2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith		3.Marques Colston	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Vincent Jackson	4.Andre Johnson		4.Randy Moss		4.Andre Johnson
5.Calvin Johnson	5.Wes Welker		5.Eddie Royal		5.Greg Jennings

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates		1.Jason Witten		1.Dallas Clark		1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Antonio Gates		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Antonio Gates
3.Dallas Clark		3.Dallas Clark		3.Antonio Gates		3.Jason Witten
4.Greg Olsen		4.John Carlson		4.Owen Daniels		4.Zach Miller
5.Dustin Keller		5.Brandon Petitgrew	5.Jason Witten		5.John Carlson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Giants		1.Vikings
2.Steelers		2.Cowboys		2.Ravens		2.Ravens
3.Giants		3.Seahawks		3.Chargers		3.Cowboys
4.Patriots		4.Redskins		4.Saints		4.Giants
5.Bengals		5.Patriots		5.Steelers		5.Bengals

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.

NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins (Part III)

Posted on by

TheGreek.com and the total wins I project as well. Enjoy!

  1. Oakland Raiders (Over 5.5 wins -140) (7): The Raiders are tougher than this. If they can stop the run a little better and be a little more efficient through the air, this team could get close to .500. It’s not like they have to rummage through a tough division, KC and Denver could both get swept by the more physical Raiders. Will that happen? I don’t know, but it’s possible, and the Raiders have a good enough run game to give mediocre teams fits. I think they’ll do that on way to their highest win total in quite some time.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (Over 9.5 wins +125) (10): This one is tough, not a great value bet, but I like the Eagles to get into double digit wins. They’re hurting at linebacker though, they have some dings on the offensive line, and they lost their defensive and possibly team leader when Brian Dawkins left Philadelphia for Denver. This team is still full of talent. I would stay away from this bet, they could take the division or they could be scrambling for .500 – but I like the former over the latter, dream big Philly fans.
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 10.5 wins +110) (10): I would be surprised if the Steelers got 12 wins in 2009. Finishing out of the playoffs seems like a crazy idea too, but after a long run last season, the injuries could pile up in 2009, making a good finish tough to come by. Besides the Browns, I think this division will be pretty tough. They do get the luxury of playing the AFC West though, that should get them 3 wins easily. Still, I have a feeling dings will catch up with the Steelers, making 11+ wins tough to come by.
  4. San Diego Chargers (Under 10.5 wins -125) (10): Somebody will say I’m crazy, but it’s possible that nobody in the AFC East wins double digit games. The Chargers are talented, as always, but they aren’t completely healthy, have one of football’s toughest schedules, and rely heavily on a 30+ running back. Now LT is one of the best ever, and the Chargers do have 6 games against the likes of KC, Oakland, and Denver, but I wouldn’t be stunned if they just barely get to 10 wins. Oakland plays them tough at least once a year. Denver could get a lucky win. The Chargers have to play the Steelers, Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Cowboys, Redskins, Cowboys, and Dolphins, not to mention the rest of their normal NFL schedule. Those are playoff teams, or at least teams in the playoff picture right off the bat. Easy division? Yes. But they rest of their schedule has me on the under.
  5. San Francisco 49ers (Over 7.5 wins +105) (9): So what? Maybe there’s a little soft spot in my heart for anything football related to Mike Singletary. As a kid, I wore #50 in anything I did. I rocked it throughout my football career, and tried to play with that Singletary focus. So maybe I think a little too highly of Mike’s Niners. But I don’t think that’s the case. What I see is a team that finished the season  5-2. A team that has a lot of toughness and is easily the most physical team in a pretty soft NFC West. They may not be the best or most talented, but the Seahawks always have trouble stoping Frank Gore, and the Cardinals have similar problems. Obviously the Rams are relatively soft up front as well. I see lots of teams San Fran can out physical this season, and quite a few of those are on the 49ers’ schedule. So I’ll take the over and root hard for my favorite football guy to come through.
  6. Seattle Seahawks (Over 8.5 +130) (11): I really like this bet, even when I’m surprised it’s not at 7.5 – maybe Vegas just knows. The Hawks are the best team in the NFC West. That’s right, better than the returning Super Bowl runner-up Arizona Cardinals, better than the more physical Niners, and better than last year’s worst team in football, St. Louis Rams. (Record-wise, maybe not, but they would have lost 7 of 10 to the Lions last year, I guarantee it). So the Hawks are the top of this division, and this is why, they are a little better, a little more explosive, better up front defensively, and they also add TJ Housh and the best player in the draft, Aaron Curry. Oh, and they are twice as healthy. Injuries can always hit, but two years in a row seems questionable. The Hawks have more depth, a new coaching situation that should invigorate them a bit, and better players at the top end. And this team was picked to win the West last year. I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m thinking last season’s down year was a fluke for the Hawks. This year will be different.
  7. St. Louis Rams (Under 5.5 +135) (6): I hate the Rams, think they were absolutely brutal last season. Plus their best receiving playmaker is an undersized sophomore that is known mostly as a burner, and will start the season on in injured list. (Donnie Avery). They are starting players that were cut from other teams. I see a lot of teams on the Rams schedule that will be difficult to beat. Starting with everyone, and then having to play the NFC North and AFC South, plus their usual terrible division is getting stronger, and they have to play the Redskins and Saints, two more teams I would easily rank much higher than the Rams. There’s no easy games for a team like the Rams, but this season seems especially tough.
  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 6.5 +140) (8): Really? Six and a half? This team has a stacked offensive line, a very good group of running backs, a solid leader in Byron Leftwich (whom doesn’t make tons of mistakes) and a defense that is out to prove they’re still solid after struggling down the stretch last season. It’s not like they lost a ton in the off-season, and they are consistently a solid team. Maybe it was all Jon Gruden before? I don’t know, I don’t get it, I think 8 seems like an easy number to get for the Bucs.
  9. Tennessee Titans(Over 9.5 wins +160) (10): The Titans lost one of the best defensive front players in football when Haynesworth signed a ginormous deal with the Redskins. But they are still stout defensively. They have playmakers on offense, easily being more explosive in the passing game with the additions of Nate Washington (very underrated) and rookie burner Kenny Britt – big tough receiver from Rutgers. LenDale is in great shape, looking to repeat as a touchdown beast, and everybody knows Chris Johnson is made of magic and pixy dust. I’m not a big Kerry Collins fan, but he rarely puts his team in tough situations. There’s lots of wins on the Titans’ schedule.
  10. Washington Redskins (Under 8.5 wins -150) (8): This is not a great money bet, the payout numbers are bad, and in the NFC West anything can happen. This defense got a lot stronger at the point of attack with Haynesworth climbing on board. They have lots of speed and talent in the secondary, and a second year under Jim Zorn, running his offensive schemes, should help this passing game be more efficient. Still, this team needs to get tougher, and in a very tough division less than .500 is a very big possability. Talentwise they could make the playoffs. So there it is, I didn’t give you much in terms of a sure thing here, but I’m leaning toward the under.

And that’s a wrap, next time I discuss this it will be a review of how well I did… But I will reference it throughout the season, if it supports my cause of course. Ha.

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Week 2

Posted on by

Alright, Week 1 was a push, but being the stubborn personality that I am, I still think I had the right side on the Eagles/Vikings game. Both teams played like garbage, and the score should have been tighter. Basically I’m saying that they played evenly terrible. As for the Falcons, I don’t know, Matt Ryan played great in the first half but didn’t get much help from his offensive mates, and thus they squandered some opportunities to get points. That hurt some confidence and there it was. Also, Arizona had Atlanta’s snap on key, and their jump off the ball, more than any other reason, was why Atlanta’s rushing game was held down. I honestly think that if the Cards didn’t have that hint, it would be Atlanta headed to round two. But, it is what it is, and Arizona finishes as the right side there. But on to Week 2! Gotta get back in the swing of things.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans: That whole “a can’t believe we’re not heavily favored, we’re the #1 seed in the league” garbage can only work so many times. Tennessee wasted that excitement a couple times earlier this year. Another thing that has me riding Baltimore’s hot streak into an upset here is the fact that it’s really hard to beat a good team twice in the same season. One more thing you ask? Well, these teams are eerily similar in talent and game plan. Both run the ball a lot. Neither has a prolific passer. One QB hasn’t reached his prime and one is past his prime, but both are about the same level. Both play great defense and bring the physical nature of football to another level. Both have solid kicking games and both won their fair share of close games. I would say Tennessee’s rushing game (and offense) is a little better than Baltimore’s, but I would say the Ravens have a little bit better defense. But neither difference is that great. Both teams have mediocre passing attacks with solid running games and good defenses. But Baltimore just has that playoff winning swagger – and while I know that no rookie quarterback has won two playoff games in his rookie season, I think records are meant to be broken, and that will happen this week in Tennessee.

Arizona Cardinals (+10) @ Carolina Panthers: I think Carolina wins this game, but 10 is too much, especially for a Carolina team that is a little overrated in my opinion, and an Arizona team that showed some defensive excitement last week. Earlier in the year, Arizona was tough to run against. They got after the run and the quarterback, and while they gave up big plays, the didn’t give away free rushing yards. If they come out like that, and in their biggest game in a million years – I think they will, they will be close in this game. They are a tough match-up for the Panthers, even in Carolina where the Panthers have yet to lose a game this season. Double digits is just too much for me. Carolina may have won 4 of their last 5, 3 out of 4 were a play away from a different outcome. They barely snuck by New Orleans in Week 17, lost to the Giants late in Week 16, beat the Broncos (but who didn’t down the stretch), rushed for a gazillion yards against Tampa Bay, but still had to convert a late 3rd and 5 to keep Tampa’s offense off the field in a game that was a touchdown away, and they barely beat the Packers after losing to the Falcons 28-45 in Atlanta and playing an amazingly tight one against the 0-16 Lions, same goes for their two game prior to that against the Raiders and these Cardinals. I’m not saying they are a bad team, but 10 point favorites in the playoffs? I don’t think that has any value at all. I’ll take the Cards.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-4): Just wait, Andy Reid will let Eagle backers down with poor play calling sooner or later, I’ll bet sooner. The Eagles will stop running, start throwing three yard stop patterns on 2nd and 10 and 3rd and 7, and that’s when the frustration on blogs and message boards will hit an all time high. Nobody is playing better than the Eagles right now, and why not, look at all that talent on that team. Young and veteran players alike, new Eagles and old Eagles – this team certainly has the talent to make an unlikely trip to the Big Show. But, that play calling – the “not to lose” attitude that seems to ward off momentum like the Bills and Super Bowl Trophies – that will get the Eagles in the end. The Giants have already lost once to the Eagles, and got a tight win earlier in the year as well – these teams know each other, that’s for sure. But Brandon Jacobs seems fully healthy and back, and he’s a battering ram weapon that New York didn’t have last time these two went at it – not in full health anyway – but even then, his 10 carries for 52 yards might have been a precursor of what is to come when he gets 20 or more totes this weekend. This is a tough one for me, because the Eagles are so up and down and this game is huge. But the Giants aren’t so up and down, they are just flat out good and play to win the game every time out. I’ll take my chances with them.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): I feel as good about this game as I did about the Ravens last week – I think the Steelers cover easily, winning by double digits. Now, that’s not their style, I understand – but that’s the way I see it. This same Steelers team came in and stomped the Chargers in Pittsburgh earlier this year – well, physically stomped them anyway, the score was an improbable 11-10 and a Charger cover for sure. But it was an unlikely set of circumstances that finished with the Steelers needing a late field goal to win it. LT was held to 57 yards on 18 carries while the highest rated quarterback this season, Philip Rivers, was eaten up by Pittsburgh’s defense, completing 15 of 26 tosses for just 159 yards 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions; easily his worst game of the season. On the other hand, Willie Parker had 115 rushing yards, and Big Ben threw for over 300 yards as well. The Steelers just couldn’t get it in the end zone. I doubt it if the same story is played out this week. Big Ben, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and a defense full of absolute beasts that have been here before – I give them the advantage in this one, and advantage I don’t see them wasting against an inferior Chargers team.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 8

Posted on by

6-8 – but I’m telling you, if you watched the Tampa game or the Falcons game, you have to see where I was coming from – I still think I capped those games perfectly – but that’s the way the china shatters, and I ended up 2 games under .500 this week. Shame on me. On the bright side, my three best picks of the week were 2-1 (one loss was Tampa) – but overall I need to be better next week – here’s where things went wacko in Week 8.

Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) “Maybe the books know something I don’t.” Yeah, apparently they did, for example, there would be a handful of penalties that basically made it possible for the Cowboys to do anything worthwhile. I hate referees. Yeah, I may be complaining a bit much here, but that game was a joke – the Bucs didn’t come out attacking, and the Cowboys defense played well, but this one was won and lost by striped jerseys. Great.

Washington Redskins (-7) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) I’ll take that point. I needed it bad.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): (WINNER) Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home.

St. Louis Rams (+8) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) “I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy.” Ha. Even with Steven Jackson not playing at the last moment and Leonard Little going down with a bad hamstring in the 2nd quarter, the Rams still covered this one. I can only imagine what this game would have looked like had those two characters played.

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) “These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day.” This game was weird. I think the Saints probably traveled a little better than the Chargers and that gave them the win. LT blew up and Rivers looked solid, but the Saints still came out victorious. This guy named Drew Brees, he can really do some work.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5): (LOSS) “Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated.” The again, maybe they aren’t. Who have the Jets beaten this year? New York needs to go back to pounding the run and stop making so many stupid throws… Ugh-hmm… Brett.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) The Falcons should have covered this game. Brian Westbrook freakishly stayed in bounds on a last minute long touchdown run that didn’t matter at all. If you watched the game you know what I’m talking about, this was one of those games I capped right that ended on the wrong side. I had a couple of those this week. The game before this one (Jets) and the one after this (Jaguars) are not examples of that.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): (LOSS) “Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here.” I hope you headed my advice to leave this game alone. If you didn’t, like myself, then you lost the game outright. I don’t know, but Cleveland’s run defense came to play. If they can beat the Ravens next week they move to 4-4 after their terrible start. Sound like anyone from last season? S A I N T S…

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one.” 35-6… Ah, that makes me feel a little better, you know, like I know what I’m doing.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (LOSS) I’m not even going to talk about this game. I turned it on just in time to see the Steelers DE/Linebacker snap the ball over the head of his punter to tie the game up. I knew things could only go up from there… Uh, I was wrong. Pittsburgh looked terrible in the 4th.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): (LOSS) The Niners were brutal, but the Hawks didn’t do good things to win this game. They took free turnovers that Mike Martz and that pathetic offense gave them. They couldn’t stop Frank Gore, but that’s okay, because Martz does that every single week for San Fran’s opponent. Seneca Wallace completed 2 long touchdown passes to his full back, Leonard Weaver. How often do you think that will ever happen again? Those two plays accounted for just about half of his passing yardage. The Niners sure sucked, and I got this one wrong.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): (WINNER) This was an interesting game. The Colts looked like there were ending the Titans perfect run, but it all came crashing down in the 4th quarter. The Titans didn’t do much well on Monday Night, but they did take advantage of some big Indy mistakes. Manning looks a little lopsided, or at least his passes do (his face is weird too). Anyway, the Titans got me a must cover on Monday Night, bringing me to 6-8 in a week that should have been 8-6 at least.

NFL Free Picks: Week 8

Posted on by

7-7 last week, and that looks like a push to me. You all know how I love pushes – ugh. Anyway, I didn’t lose any ground in the old win loss column, so things could have been worse. So far I have 13 games this week (Cowboys line not out yet) – check out the goods in my NFL Free Picks for Week 8. Good luck to all! 

Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Carolina Panthers: This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Maybe the books know something I don’t. Don’t get me wrong, the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they played last week, and the Bucs let a bad Seahawk team hang around and they ended up losing that game ATS – still, no Tony Romo, no defensive backs, a defense that is playing soft – I think Tampa does enough against Brad Johnson to make it another tough day for America’s Team. 

Washington Redskins (-7) @ Detroit Lions: Detroit lost by less than a touchdown in each of their last two ball games, and should have beat the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 6 – still, I don’t think they match up well with the Redskins, as Washington should run all over Detroit. Here’s some food for bet, the Lions are 0-2 at home, giving up 48 points to the Packers and losing 34-7 against the Bears.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home. 

St. Louis Rams (+8) @ New England Patriots: I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy. I don’t know what to think of the Patriots “one good, one bad” game situation they’ve been rocking, but they are on cue to play a bad one. That doesn’t mean jack to me, though, and this team is still a solid group. I just think all of their injuries start to catch up to them this week against the Rams. Tough call, but I’ll take the Rams with a little more than a TD. 

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5): I like 12.5 I guess. Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated. I don’t like the Chiefs without Larry Johnson (and who knows what’s happening there), Damon Huard (out), Brody Croyle (out), or even completely healthy. I think Thomas Jones will run all over the Chiefs and Tyler Thigpen must not be that great because the Chiefs seem to be exhausting all sporting options to pick up another quarterback. It’s never good to throw in a guy that hasn’t seen a playbook for your team, even if it’s a guy like Daunte Culpepper that is better than every single guy you’ve started all year long. Weird. J E T S – winners. 

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles haven’t won coming off a bye week since the ’04-’05 season. The Falcons can run the ball well and while the Eagles started off stingy against the run, they allowed 145 yards to Clinton Portis and 101 yards to Frank Gore – both having nice yards per carry. I don’t think Turner will burn the Eagles for big yardage, but he’ll do enough to keep Atlanta close, and remember, the Falcons are coming off of two weeks to prepare for Philly as well, and they’re a huge dog – they’ll need some help to win, but I think this will be close. 

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): The owners fined Winslow 250 grand for questioning the staph infections in the organization over the past few seasons. What a joke. The rest of the players have to think that’s a joke. The rest of the players also have to think that their season is on the line and that sitting one of their best offensive players is down right stupid. They’ve played one good game all season. Without all the crap going on with Cleveland, I might like them to cover here, but the Jags are coming off a bye and they’ve won 3 straight coming off a break. The Jags are without Matt Jones, but with Jerry Porter getting two weeks to get healthy, they might not be losing anything at all. Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9.5): The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one. 

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): The Steelers in Pittsburgh seems like a slam dunk at -2.5, yes, even against your World Champion New York Giants. Honestly, I think the Giants have played just as many mediocre to bad games as they have good games. Think about it – they couldn’t put away the Redskins in week 1, settling for field goals too often (mediocre). They played a terrible Rams team in Week 2, so you can’t tell much there. They barely beat the Bengals in OT – (mediocre to bad). They killed a terribly lost Seattle team, but played very well there. They lost to Cleveland in a laugher (bad). They let San Francisco hang around all day, even though the Niners were turnover machines (mediocre). Maybe they aren’t a shoe in for back to back titles after all, huh? I like Pittsburgh to show us that one more time this weekend. 

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): You’ve found my weak spot, Mike Singletary. That guy is my favorite player of all time – bar none. I think his intensity, honestly, and respect from his players gets the 49ers going in Week 8. They aren’t great, and they won’t be all year long, but they are going up against the Hawks in his first game as the main guy, and that’s enough for me. Seattle is brutal. Without a couple broken play runs late last week in Tampa, they would have been under 100 yards of offense – that’s a joke. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): The Titans should lose one coming up here, but I don’t think Bob Sanders is coming back this week – that pretty much ends the Colts hopes. Betting against Peyton Manning as more than a field goal favorite seems like a poor move, but I’m not betting against him. I’m betting against his offensive lines ability to slow the Titans rush and I’m definitely betting against the Colts defensive front shutting down the Titans run. I think 20 will win this one, and Tennessee can get that in their sleep against this Colts defense – just run the rock.

NFL Free Picks: Week 7

Posted on by

I started tough last week (4 losses to bound my morning up) but finished strong and hope to keep that mo going heading into Week 7’s games. Here’s how I see them getting figured out…

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): This one is tight, hence the pick em, but I have to take the Bills here. San Diego and Buffalo are different places to play and the Chargers will find that out promptly. It’s an early game, which means the Chargers fly to Buffalo to play at 10 am their time, which usually doesn’t bode well. The Bills aren’t a dominate team by any means, but they play sound football and have an offense that doesn’t produce many mistakes. I like Buffalo in October, like them even better at home, and like them even better early at home against a team from Cali. SO I like this play here a little bit. Still, the Chargers are showing life and they don’t have the time to mess around and lose more games. I still don’t see it from LT yet, and thus I’ll lean toward the Bills.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): The play here is Minnesota, but I’m going against my initial feeling and taking the Bears. I think Chicago can pass on Minnesota and I’m pretty sure that if the Vikes had trouble running on the Lions and Saints, they’ll be bottled up against the Bears. I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope. They are sending Ryan Fitzsomething to the wolves here, and while Pittsburgh has struggled a bit with injuries, it is expected that Fast Willie Parker could return for this game, and that boost alone should get the Steelers and extra touchdown. That being said they are already a touchdown better than the Bengals. Put those two together and a 28-13 game is what I expect.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): The Ravens just out-physical opponents, and that’s how they win. The new coaching staff in Miami has neutralized that problem by becoming one of the more physical teams in football, on both sides of the ball. Chad Pennington is worth 3 or 4 points over Joe Flacco, and therefor I’m taking the Dolphins. I think they are a pretty solid bet here.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): I’m against the Saints again, and maybe it will crush me, but until they start doing better work in the red zone I have to go against them on the road against a more complete team. Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: Lane Kiffin’s gone, so the Raiders are going to have to prove to me that they can beat somebody without him. Didn’t work so well last week, as the Raiders looked worse than ever before. I don’t think that game is a fluke, I think the Raiders sans Kiffin are more doomed than ever. Take the Jets by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: Do the Cowboys lose a little bit without one of the best quarterbacks in football? You bet. Do they lose something wihtout Pacman Jones? Yep. Do they still have a considerable amount of talent that completely trumps anything the Rams have in St. Louis? Most definitely. I think the Cowboys take less chances, make fewer mistakes, and play better football in their first game without Romo and Jones. They are still loaded on the defensive side of the ball and one more offensive weapon for the Cowboys shouldn’t hurt them. I like Dallas by a touchdown on the road in the face of adversity.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Colts are the play here, even without a rushing attack to lean on. Green Bay is solid, but against a bend but don’t break defense I think they’ll have trouble. They don’t have enough of a rushing attack to make the Colts pay, and if Rodgers is throwing 40 times I see some mistakes popping up. I think this game will be quite the offensive showcase, and in such a game, I like to error on the side of one Peyton Manning.

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): The Texans are good. They’ve lost a lot of games already. The Lions are bad and they will continue to lose games. I like Drew Stanton but don’t think he’ll be enough to cover this spread. Steve Slaton will be running, Matt Schaub will be throwing, and I think Kevin Walter (of all white receivers) will have a very good game at home this Sunday. I think the Texans win by 2-3 touchdowns in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): This is the NFL and anything can happen, just like any other sport, but the Hawks are brutal right now, playing with absolutely no confidence and headed into Tampa Bay where the Bucs play stellar defense that should press Charlie Brown Frye into more than a few mistakes. The Hawks are a lost team and Tampa isn’t a heavy offensive point scorer, but they should still cover this monstrous spread. Defensively the Bucs are too consistent for Seattle to put up much more than 14 points.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown. I think Washington moves the ball well, but if you can take away the run a bit they have trouble scoring. The Browns gain a little confidence back after last week’s big win, and while I do think the Skins are a better team, I think this game comes down to a field goal. Even a touchdown still gets me a win, and I am really liking that extra half a point here.

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: Strength versus weakness here. In a couple ways. The Broncos love to throw early and often, and deep. The Patriots are struggling most in their secondary. The Patriots can’t seem to run the ball and everyone puts pressure on them. The Broncos can’t stop the run and can’t put pressure on anyone – I guess that’s a weakness versus a weakness, but that also favors the Broncos. Without much of a rushing threat, the Patriots won’t be able to trick the Broncos into committing to the run. That means the secondary will be more clogged. The Patriots look bad, and while the Broncos have struggled the last few weeks, I see this as a very nice match-up for them.

NFL Free Picks: Week 5

Posted on by

After a .500 Week 4, I am still in the green headed into the nitty gritty portion of the season. That’s right, bankrolls are made during the Week 5 – Week 10 section of the season. The lucky ones that think their brilliance has built them a huge lead begin to struggle while the wily old veterans do their best work. Which one will it be for me? Well, we shall see. 14 big games to choose from, take em all or take the best value, here are my Week 5 picks.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens won’t be able to throw. They still aren’t able to pass, as they just don’t take enough chances, and they went into overtime with a very physical Steeler team in Pittsburgh on Monday Night. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: This game has stayed at (-9) on BetJamaica, and with that value I have to take the Hawks. Seattle doesn’t play their best football on the road, no doubt about that, but after struggling to start the season, the Hawks don’t have time to play crappy road ball. I like the Giants to win this one, but New York hasn’t proven to be a good value as a big favorite. Their style of football equals a lot of close games, and I expect this one to be around a touchdown. At -7, it’s more of a toss up, but I’d still take the Hawks there.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): Thin this one is close. The Eagles are, in my opinion, one of the best teams in all the land, but the Redskins are no slouch. I still see a bit of a letdown from the young guys on Washington’s squad after a big win in Dallas. Philadelphia will likely get Brian Westbrook back this week, and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell- I like the kid, but he’s not ready to be the reason Washington beats Philly.

San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. San Diego gets a couple guys back on their starting defense this week, and they’ll be solid against Miami’s run. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: I’m not ready to fully buy into Chicago just yet, but I’ll take them at just over a field goal against the Lions. Things have to be looking up for the Lions now that their doink of a GM is out of town, but that won’t instantly give them field credit. The Bears should be able to run all over the Lions, and if the Bears are running freely they are in for an auto-win. I like Chicago here, as they are too physical and too defensive for these little lion cubs.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): I like the Packers in this one. It’s possible, that after a really good start, the Packers got overrated. I understand that, and I even agree with it. However, they are now 2-2 and with the Falcons coming to Lambeau I don’t see they faltering to 2-3. A home game against a low-end Falcons team is just what the Packer ordered. Green Bay’s rushing attack will be better, and a lot will go into stopping Mike Turner and Jerious Norwood. I don’t think Matt Ryan beats the Packers – I’ll take them at -7.

**** – I found out this Thursday morning that Aaron Rodgers is very unlikely to play in this weeks game. I had believed that he would definitely suit up for this one. While that doesn’t ruin Green Bay’s chances, it certainly hinders them. I have to stick with this pick, but based on this knowledge I wouldn’t take Green Bay at anything lower than -3, which you might be able to get.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here. The Colts as a field goal favorite always looks pretty good, and while I’m a huge Texan guy I just don’t see them as a field goal underdog to Indy as good value. Peyton, with a week to heal and to get more comfortable with his offensive line, should look a lot better. I like the Colts in Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there. KC is coming off a huge win so a let down is a good chance bet right here. Carolina is at least 10 points better than KC. Carolina is good. KC is bad. The Panthers will be able to run, and like I said before, if they can do that they are a top-notch football team in this league. Take the Panthers, and do it with a smile.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation. I think Denver can score on any defense, even a Buccaneer group that shows strength in all areas. I don’t think Denver will turn the ball over like they did in a flukey loss to Kansas City, and I think that blow up is the beast that has this game at just -3. A field goal is right at my cap zone, so like i said, this one is tough. But pushing me over the edge is Denver’s air attack and their home field advantage. I’ll ride the Broncos.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). I think Arizona, a tough run defense, has the advantage in this match-up because of their ability to put some pressure on the ball and make Buffalo beat them through the air. The Bills have had some nice luck riding their undefeated streak, but that has to end some time, and there is not better place than on the road against a team that got embarrassed last week as Brett and the Jets put up nearly 50 points on them. The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers:  I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: I think Palmer will play. I hate the Bengals, but the Cowboys aren’t a 17.5 point favorite with any value. They allow too many big plays through the air, and with two dynamic receivers in Cinci, ready to attack a big stage in Dallas, I like the underdogs to cover here. Remember, even if Dallas wins this one by a couple touchdowns the Bengals cover. I like that chance.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): I promised myself I wouldn’t be taking the Ravens or the Steelers after watching them crash into each other play after play on Monday NIght. It’s a short week for the Steelers, just like the Ravens, and they are headed into a tough physical match-up for the second week in a row. I think Garrard will be better through the air in this one, and I don’t think Pittsburgh will be able to take advantage of a down year on the front line for the Jaguars. This should be a higher scoring game than many expect, but the Jags by a touchdown or two wouldn’t surprise me.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Vikings are better than the Saints – they get Bryant McKinnie back after a four game suspension – they will be able to run circles around New Orleans – Gus should be okay, but even if he isn’t, I still like Tarvaris Jackson to win this game on the road. Anything else? Well, New Orleans will be passing the ball a lot, and while that gives them a chance, it also leaves a lot up for grabs. Expect the Vikings to grab some of those ups and take this one easily.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 4

Posted on by

Hey!!! Finally the Brownies win one. But it wasn’t all sunshine on Sunday, some shoe shine busted the scene up pretty good, but after Monday’s tight contest I ended up at .500 – 6 and 6. This is where my pinks went right, and awry.

Denver Broncos (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs:
Larry Johnson was back and crushing any hope the Broncos had at winning this game. When all they needed was a stop to get a chance at a win, Larry put no his working boots and crushed some Bronco hearts. I must say, I like when Mike Shannahan loses, but it’s better when I win and he loses. Maybe next week.

Cleveland Browns (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
“As much as I hate betting on the Browns right now, there’s just no way I can justify taking the Bengals as a favorite. You know why? Because they shouldn’t be favored to do anything but lose.” Alright both of these teams are officially brutal, and things might have gone a little differently had Carson Palmer suited up, but a win is a win, and on .500 weeks I’m grateful for those.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5):
Those damn Texans had this one, and they played well most of the game. I think they’ll fight back to around .500, we’ll see, 0-3 is often a tough hole to fight your way out of. Houston covered easily, taking the Jaguars into overtime in Jacksonville. Maybe they’re turning around their poor road runs.

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Green Bay seemed to fold it up after the first drive of the game. Interesting for sure. Honestly, if it weren’t for some amazing Aaron Rodgers throws the Pack wouldn’t have had a chance. I’m beginning to think that Tampa Bay is the most underrated team around. The Packers will be back, but maybe I gave them a little too much credit after a quick start.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints :
The 49ers gave up too many big plays, and for once the Saints got me. When will Martz learn that Frank Gore’s rushing is the key to his success? I got one for you… NEVER. Damned again by my arch enemy Mike Martz.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-7):
“If the Panthers can run, and they can against Atlanta, they are a top notch football team. A touchdown seems like a lot, but I’d bet they cover.” I didn’t like giving a touchdown here, but I’m glad I did. Carolina is the much better football team and their defense stepped up to slam the door on the Falcons rushing attack. Making Atlanta throw to beat you is a good thing to do if you want a win.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (-3):
“I think the Titans are the better team here, they are playing in Tennessee, and their secondary isn’t as much of a question mark as the one in Minnesota.” Let me say this, Adrian Peterson is a beast. He needed about 15 more carries and the Vikings would have had a chance. Minnesota’s rushing attack gets better from here on out as their starting left tackle is back from a four game suspension. The Titans, on the other hand, look legit. Collins, as drunk as he looks, is coherent and doing enough through the air to keep defenses honest. Chris Johnson is everything this team needed to become scary offensively. Winner winner.

Buffalo Bills (-8) @ St. Louis Rams:
The Rams had this one in the bank, and then they turned into the Rams. Thank God! I needed this win something fierce and I was certainly worried until I actually watched the wheels come right off. And with the wheels went the head coach. Sigh.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
This was a bad beat for Raider backers. Certainly Oakland was up late in this game and if it weren’t for a burst and long touchdown by LT this game would have never been this close, or shall I say far away? The Raiders once again played well in a loss, and they did just little enough late to give me a cover here. I’ll take it. Without some close calls, this would have been a tough week for me.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears:
“I don’t buy the Bears as a playoff team. I’m buying the Eagles as a threat to be in the Super Bowl come February though.” Hmmm… Can I get a discount on the Bears as a playoff team? That defense in Chicago is legit, and the Eagles, without Brian Westbrook, just didn’t have enough to win this one. I may be wrong about the Bears, but it will take one more shot in the arm for me to believe in them.

Washington Redskins (+11.5) @ Dallas Cowboys:
“I do think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football, but I don’t think they are a good value at +11.5 against the Redskins, even with the game being played in Dallas. Washington has a nice passing attack and a runner in Clinton Portis that poses enough of a threat to keep the Cowboys on their toes.” Washington did the unthinkable and notched a loss in the Cowboys’ record. This Redskin team has lots of talent, speed on the outside and a workhorse toting the rock up the middle. Defensively they have some playmakers. This was a nice bet from the get go.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7):

The Ravens keep surprising me. The Steelers are really hurting and I didn’t properly take that into account. Now they are decimated. After a tough Monday Night match-up, a loss for the Ravens and a devastating win for the Steelers, I’m not sure I like either of these teams next Sunday. As is, I took my 6th loss in 12 chances, breaking me even at .500 on the week.

NFL Free Picks: Week 4

Posted on by

Well, the ever-so-popular sleeper pick Brownies are 0-3, so are the Bengals. Get this, one of them is guaranteed to be 0-4. Which will it be? Is it possible that Cleveland starts the ’08 season just like the Saints started the ’07 season? Did either team make me forget what I thought about them before their Week 3 game? Anything is possible. Check out which other teams I see being winless when Week 4 is over…

Denver Broncos (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs:
When one team will just put up too many points for another to stay close: The Broncos – Chiefs saga. Unless this game was a 2 touchdown spread, I just can’t buy the Chiefs hanging around. They couldn’t do it with the Falcons, and they were ousted by the Raiders – the Broncos should blow another division foe right out of the water. The only question is how will the Broncos do it? I feel like Splinter Shannahan has taken on the Patriots persona from last year – put up as many points as you can as fast as possible and make teams uncomfortable early and often. The two point conversion. Passing late in the game against the Saints. I think they’ll put up 50 on the Chiefs just to try and piss some people off.

Cleveland Browns (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
As much as I hate betting on the Browns right now, there’s just no way I can justify taking the Bengals as a favorite. You know why? Because they shouldn’t be favored to do anything but lose. I realize that Cleveland has played terrible thus far, and I also know that the Bengals were a couple Eli Manning passes away from a big upset over the Giants – but which team is better suited to win here? I’m thinking the Browns, honestly. Jamal Lewis will run easily on the Bengals, and Cincinnati isn’t consistent enough to pull too far ahead. I like the dogs here – as much as I can like a Brown anyway.

Houston Texans  @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5):
I would take the Texans if they didn’t play such horrible football away from home. Jacksonville is a tough place to play, mainly because they have a defense that halts drives and an offense that pounds defenses into submission. This game should be close early, but I would think a late score puts the Jaguars up by two touchdowns and that’s how the game ends. Again, I like the Texans – in Texas – but when they get mailed a couple states away they just aren’t the same team. If this game gets to +10, then I like then I would advise bettors to steer clear – but you can get 7.5 now, so go for the gusto!

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The Packers were handled pretty well by the Cowboys, but Tamps isn’t Dallas, and even though this game is on the road, I don’t see Green Bay losing two in a row. They’ll come back after a mediocre performance against Dallas and handle the Bucs easily. Tampa Bay won’t be able to do to Green Bay what they did to Chicago, 400+ passing yards is out of the question. Expect less scoring and a nice road win against a solid defense for the Packers.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints :
This is a really tough one, so I’ll take the points. I don’t think the Niners are a good team quite yet, but neither are the Saints. New Orleans is getting points as if their best receiver (Colston) and their second best receiver (Shockey) aren’t out for a couple weeks with injuries. News flash, neither will play on Sunday. The 49ers have one of the best corners in the league in Nate Clements, he should shut down one side of the field for Drew Brees. With defensive speed and pass rushing prowess, I think the 49ers can pressure Drew into some mistakes. I’m sure Reggie Bush will find some room to thrive, and certainly New Orleans will rely on the run more in this one(Bush, Thomas, and McCallister), but that helps my case for taking the points. The 49ers look like the best value here.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-7):
I don’t know about this one. I don’t like the Panthers as a favorite, they are well known as heart breakers from that side of the betting spectrum, but I think Atlanta is getting a little bit too much credit here. They have a nice rushing attack, surely, but Carolina has a nice defense and a secondary that should be able to snag a couple arrant passes from Matt Ryan. I certainly like the Falcons future, but they are a 7-9 team at best. The Panthers are playoff caliber with a defense that is putting it all together. Coming off a loss last week in Minnesota, I think the Panthers come back strong against a Falcons defense that can’t chose one thing to stop. If the Panthers can run, and they can against Atlanta, they are a top notch football team. A touchdown seems like a lot, but I’d bet they cover.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (-3):
I think the Titans are the better team here, they are playing in Tennessee, and their secondary isn’t as much of a question mark as the one in Minnesota. The Vikings will want to run, and with a stud like Adrian Peterson and a great back up like Chester Taylor, there is definitely something to like there. But they are going up against a Titans defense that is very good at taking the run away. I don’t think the Vikings can succeed without a rushing attack. I think the Titans do enough with their offense to take advantage of a weak secondary, and being at home I really like their chances to go 4-0 with a win in Week 4.

Buffalo Bills (-8) @ St. Louis Rams:
Not much about the Rams to like here. Sure, they could pull a Bengals and do well against the visiting Bills, but the chances of that happening aren’t great. I still don’t like giving 8 points to the Bills – they take too few chances to be a sure thing to win by a large margin, so I pick this game advising that you be a little bit careful – but right now there is absolutely no reason to like anything the Rams put out there. They lost to a Seahawk team that was down and out, and they didn’t even put up a fight. Steven Jackson is running a lot like Shawn Alexander did last year, Bulger is benched, and though Tory Holt is still always open, the offensive line can’t give a quarterback enough time to get him the ball. Take the Bills!

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
Is this the week that Kiffin gets the axe? It must be hard, as a player, to go week to week wondering that same question. Sure, they can look past it for the first week or two, but soon the realization that you are playing for a guy that is inevitably getting fired kicks in. That never helps a team. The Chargers are about to pull off maybe 5 or 6 straight wins, and right now a mediocre Raiders team is trying to play the part of speed bump. Take the Chargers here – it shouldn’t be much of a contest.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears:
I don’t buy the Bears as a playoff team. I’m buying the Eagles as a threat to be in the Super Bowl come February though. Chicago showed me last week, that if Philly wants to, they can throw the ball all over the Bears’ secondary. That’s not a good sign for Bears fans. McNabb isn’t 100% coming into this game, but I think he’ll play, and I think he’ll play well in his home state. Look for DeSean Jackson to shine as well – this should be a big win for the Eagles.

Washington Redskins (+11.5) @ Dallas Cowboys:
I do think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football, but I don’t think they are a good value at +11.5 against the Redskins, even with the game being played in Dallas. Washington has a nice passing attack and a runner in Clinton Portis that poses enough of a threat to keep the Cowboys on their toes. The Redskins have fought back nicely after getting embarrased a little in their first game of the season. Jim Zorn isn’t as wet behind the ears as he seemed in week 1, and I like their chances to make a couple big plays that keep this game within 10.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7):
The Steelers are a very good football team, especially at home. The Eagles shut them down a bit last week, but I don’t think the Steelers offense is that questionable. They didn’t look good against the Browns two weeks ago, but like I said, the Steelers are a different beast in Pittsburgh, and even with Willie Parker out, I still expect them to run on the Ravens a bit. Rashard Mendenhall, though he hasn’t done anything yet, is a very good back with the power and speed to do work against the best of defenses. I think that, without Willie, the Steelers will take more chances through the air, and that should mean good things for Santonio Holmes and the Steelers offense. As of right now the only line on this game is from a big casino, and I’m sure the books are waiting to see if Ben Roethlisberger is going to play. If he’s not playing, this line doesn’t exist, and I’ll try to get back on an make a proper pick. But for now, I’ll take the Steelers by more than a touchdown against a Ravens team that will find moving the ball next to impossible versus the Steel Show.

Three for Thursday: Week 2

Posted on by

What Would I do for a Klondike Bar? How about a healthy offensive line!: More than a couple quarterbacks are pondering that exact question this week, and that should make you worry too. That’s right, the Jaguars, Seahawks, Vikings, and Colts are all down at least one key guy on their respective offensive lines. The Jags, Hawks, and Colts look to be really hurting, while it’s just Tarvaris Jackson’s blind-side hurting in Minnesota. This week, the Jags play the Bills, a tough defensive front, and their offensive fantasy players should all be downgraded because of it. The Vikings play the Colts, so play them at will. The Colts, in turn, play the Vikes, that can’t be a good match-up for Joseph Addai, and Peyton might have to throw a little quicker, but he’s still a nice play. The Hawks go up against the 49ers, and if there was ever a good time to play Julius Jones, it’s probably now, but he, by no means, is a safe bet – even against that defensive line in San Fran. I’m just saying, the health of the big guys (or lack there of) is a big reason for success (or lack there of). Keep that in mind when setting your lineups.

What a Year for Rookies? Or what a first week?: It has often been said that rookies can’t be trusted unless they are running backs put into a great situation. Some have beaten that advice (Larry Fitz, even more so Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, Dwayne Bowe had a solid year, and a couple others for sure) but for the most part, there are more rookies with nice weeks than nice innagural seasons. Still, I can’t help but recognize the difference makers throughout this rookie class – and you should take notice as well. Guys not picked in the first round, players like Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, John Carlson – and then 1st rounders like Stewart, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Matt Ryan – these guys all seem pretty legit. Was week 1 just a coming out part for the rooks, and week 2 will be a blast of reality? It’s tough to say, but right now I’m going with the greatness of this class that was supposed to be void of solid receivers and high on super talents that hadn’t figured it out yet. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, among others, figured out how to rock week 1 like a champ.

The Great Wall of… CINCINNATI?: Don’t bet on it. The Titans look to be a team destined to have two 100+ yard rushers in the same week for the first time this year. Kerry Collins has the deep arm to keep the Bengals secondary honest, and even then, it’s not as if they can tackle. Good luck catching Chris Johnson, and even better luck trying to bring down the bulk that is LenDale White. This box score is going to look like a Navy football game – run, run, and then run some more. Maybe a better question is what are the Bengals going to do to fix their offense? Sign Shaunna Alexander… Oh great, that’s going to work wonders! Sigh.