Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-4) Free Football Pick: This line moved up after I took the Texans, going up to 4.5 despite seeing the public bet go the way of the visiting Titans. Interesting. Maybe the public sees that the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Maybe the public is smitten with the Titans current three game winning streak after starting the season 0-7. Maybe people are seeing that Vince Young is a winner, and the Titans haven’t loss since the former Texas Longhorn got back in the starting line-up. Or maybe they see the Titans’ dominance over the last 9 games, winning 7, covering 5 of the last 7.

But I see the Titans this year, and the Texans are a different team this time around as well. I think Tennessee is somewhere in-between how they started and their last three games, not one or the other. They aren’t a dominant football team, they aren’t a winless squad either. Don’t get it twisted and think that just because they’ve won 3 in a row they are back to the team they were a year ago. Oh no, oh no. They don’t have that defensive power or swagger for that matter.

And the Texans, like I said, they aren’t the .500-ish team they’ve been the last few years, they are a team that played solid football in all but one game this season. On the road against teams like Arizona, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Cincinnati – they may just be 2-2, but they have only one loss by more than a touchdown this season. They have a very good passing attack, a rushing game that can be explosive, and a defense that has played very well over the last 4 weeks.

They may not be the popular pick this week, but the better team at home by just four on Monday Night Football seems like an easy bet to me.