Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans Free Pick & Preview: I got this game at +7.5 and was stoked about it. Yet every “expert” on Covers seems to love the Titans to cover by a touchdown at home. 66% of the public has their money on the Titans. All this and the spread has actually moved in the Titans favor, right now you can get them at just under a touchdown in most books. I guess it opened at -6, ran to -7.5, and has found a cozy little home at 6.5 – oh the life of the spread…

I see what the public sees here, and who knows, that might be the way it goes this Sunday. I see Chris Johnson and Vince Young and that Titan rushing attack that has been dominant like everyone expected them to be all season. I see Buffalo’s injury ridden defense and the fact that they can’t stop the run very well when they are healthy anyway. I see two straight wins for the Titans, and a 10-31 loss to the Texans and a bye week for the Bills. You know, when you lose big before your bye, the public basically counts that as two losses. So there you have it, this is the view from the public tree – and it’s all pretty accurate.

But what they are missing is the fact that Buffalo has actually played pretty well in most their losses. They were leading Houston 10-9 before Matt Schaub went all Tom Brady on the Bills defense, and Ryan Moats scored three 4th quarter touchdowns to ice it and make it look a lot more lopsided than it was. I see a 24-25 loss to New England that Buffalo, frankly, should have won. They beat up on Tampa Bay – they played tight with New Orleans until the 4th quarter (very similar to Houston), and they beat the Jets and Panthers before losing to Houston. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games, have only really been beaten up by the Jets, and are playing a Titans team, that despite the public’s admiration and respect, have just 2 wins in 8 games this season. Plus, the Bills have played their best football on the road.

Needless to say, I think 7 points is way too many. 7.5 is even better!