Ten for Tuesday

I’ve been doing some thinking and I see a five and five scenario taking place over the last 6 weeks of fantasy football. Five guys that will impress you, or play much better than they’ve played to start the season – and five guys that are going to tumble like that egg headed dumpty fellow. Last week for trades in those leagues in which the deadline hasn’t already passed – these are what my party invites look like. In no particular order, here are my lists.

High Five

1. Tyler Thigpen: Yep, still on his bandwagon. For some reason, a really easy schedule and one more game with a bunch of yards and touchdowns wihtout interceptions keeps him high on my list. Until he has a couple bad weeks in a row, I’m riding with him. Against the Saints this week – you bet he’s starting over Brett Favre on my club.

2. Deion Branch: He can’t possibly get hurt again, can he? Alright he’s a shot in the dark, but in over 90% of Yahoo leagues, this guy is available – I’m sure it’s the same in most leagues and don’t forget, this is a guy that has really produced when he’s played over the last few years. Branch may not be a big touchdown guy, but he makes things happen and gets the ball a lot. With Matt Hasselbeck back for the remainder of the season, I like the chance Deion has of making good on some pre-season predictions some people on this site.

3. New York Jets Defense: I know it’s not “cool” to throw out a defense, but stop me when you see an offensive juggernaut remaining on the Jets schedule… New England, Tennessee, Denver (okay, but lots of mistakes), San Francisco, Buffalo, Seattle, Miami – something tells me they’re going to continue the great defensive season they’ve been putting together. Right now they are the 3rd ranked defense in fantasy, and they are owned in just over 60% of leagues. Come on folks. San Fran, Buffalo, and Seattle during the playoffs – you betcha!

4. Matt Forte: I’ve heard lots of stuff about Forte stumbling down the stretch because of all the carries he’s been getting – hogwash. Obviously those people haven’t looked at Matt’s schedule going forward. Not only has he been solid since the bye, and is the #1 PPR running back, but Matt has Green Bay (easy), St. Louis (easy), Jacksonville (easy), New Orleans (easy), and Green Bay (easy again) to play against with just Minnesota as his lone tough defense on his schedule. He also has Houston in Week 17, but most fantasy leagues are over by then. I like Matt going forward, that’s for sure.

5. Reggie Wayne: He sure hasn’t produced like a Top 3 receiver – but don’t you worry, Wayne’s remaining opponents have something in common – see if you can figure it out… Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville… (and a tough Week 17 against Tennessee, but I’m not counting that). So did you get what those teams have in common? If you selected an absolutely brutal secondary and defense altogether, you win a prize, hurry, get Wayne now before someone else sees his remaining schedule. He has 49 receptions for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns – I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with at least that much in his next 7 games…

Down in the Slumps

1. Frank Gore: I love this player and now that he’ll be getting normal running back carries with Samari Mike running the show, he’s never going to be a bad bet – however, after this great match-up against the Rams, Frank goes four straight weeks of tough defenses – Dallas, Buffalo, the Jets, and the Dolphins. He started nice, and has been a nice PPR guy, but Gore’s only rushed for one touchdown in his last 6 games.

2. Marion Barber: I think he’s one of the better running backs in the league – so I wouldn’t get rid of the guy, but if you do listen to your brain and not your heart, it might be time to move Marion. During the playoffs Marion goes heads up against Pittsburgh, the Giants, and the Ravens – good luck finding good weeks in that crap tornado.

3. Brandon Jacobs: I hope he doesn’t, because I would never want a guy to get hurt, but Jacobs is definitely a candidate to break down before the season is over. Anybody that watches him run knows the strain he goes through on a game to game basis, he makes car accidents happen. And while he is the one usually delivering the blow, he is still in a bunch of accidents. He has had his fair share of pains over the years, and while New York does a good job of limiting his touches (only 2 games over 20 carries, and just 21 and 22 respectively) he still takes a lot of body punishment. Not only that, but Baltimore, Arizona, Washington, Philadelphia, Dallas, Carolina, and Minnesota aren’t really the easy defenses one would hope to run against down the stretch. There’s not an easy match-up in that bunch.

4.T.J Houshmanzadeh: I would say Chad Johnson, but he hasn’t been too productive during the season anyway. T.J. has still been solid, but it doesn’t look good for him going forward. He had a bye last week, but that looks like his last easy go at it. Philly, Pittsburgh, Balitmore, Indianapolis, Washington, and Cleveland. The light at the end of the tunnel doesn’t come until maybe Cleveland and then KC in Week 17, but if you are depending on Housh over the next few weeks, you might not be playing that long. An no Carson Palmer most likely, not much grand about that.

5. Willis McGahee: I don’t think it’s possible to like this guy in the first place, especially after screwing owners in Week 9 with a suit up but did not play fantasy score killer – but I have to like him even less moving forward, despite his 25 carry 112 yard 2 touchdown performance in Week 10 – he plays the Giants, the Eagles, the Bengals (you get one good match-up in Week 13), then the Reskins, Steelers, and Cowboys before going to Jacksonville in Week 17. It’s not looking good for him folks.

My Prediction Early Returns

Okay, since my nephew blasted a few of my predictions, I just wanted to get some things straight. There’s still a long season ahead of us here, but after 4 measily weeks I think I have some good things going – I’ve rated all 50 predictions on a 1 to 10 scale, 1 being no chance of my prediction coming true, and 10 being a very good chance that it’s going to happen. Here goes nothing. I’ll do the first half of my prediction rundown this week, and the other half next week (if I’m not too old to remember).

  • Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.(1 It’s not looking good)
  • LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (4 LenDale is down 55-44 as of Week 4, and this Johnson kid looks good, but there’s still injuries and vultured touchdowns to come, I have a chance in non-ppr leagues)
  • Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value. (9 Four games and hasn’t exceeded 20 carries yet, getting just 10, 15, and 12 in week’s 1-3)
  • Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points). (8 Branch comes back this week and he’s chasing Nate Burleson’s Week 1 total of 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown – I think he’s got a great chance to make me look smart)
  • LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it). (I still like this one, but can’t really rate it yet)
  • Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens. (3 Has 100 less rushing yards than the guy who started the season #3 on the depth chart, it’s not looking good, but this could turn around in a hurry)
  • Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  • My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that. (10 Calvin is 5th right now even though he’s only played 3 games because of the teams’ Week 4 bye – I like my chances)
  • Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20. (7 I still think Ryan is the guy, but Flacco is better than I thought, he’ll be in the Top 25)
  • Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games. (4 He’s in the Top 20, yeah, but he has just 2 touchdowns thus far – the dual prediction is looking less likely than I’d hoped)
  • Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York. (8 Even after Coles crabbed 8 balls for 105 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4, Cotchery is still just 3 points back – I still think Jericho ends the season with 40 more fantasy points than Coles)
  • Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (1 – nope – Splinter doesn’t give him the rock at all – too bad, sorry about this one)
  • Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard. (1nope, Kurt’s still in, and despite 6 turnovers last week, still the guy giving the Cards the best chance to win)
  • DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career. (4 Jon Stewart has 45 carries for 197 yards thus far, DeAngelo has 55 carries for 201 yards – looks like a 50-50, and Williams is only on pace for 800 yards this season, it could still happen though, all is not lost)
  • Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (9 Keller is 11th thus far and he has just 12 targets thus far – he’s a shoe in)
  • So will Greg Olsen. (7 he’s 27th, but just a touchdown and 30 yards back of a Top 10)
  • Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (1 out for the year after one nice week)
  • Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions. (10 who else told you this? Slaton is 16th overall, the sure fire #1 in Houston, and he has 15 receptions in 16 targets in three games – that’s on pace for 80 receptions and he’s becoming more involved in the passing game. Yhatzee!)
  • Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land. (9 he’s #3 so far, and he only got 7 carries last week, I still think he’s #1, but I need to give some other guys a little credit – we’ll see – Turner’s had some good games too)
  • Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy. (7 who knows, I hope I’m wrong, but Westy is already down a game, and he might miss #2 this weekend, we’ll see)
  • Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (3 Fumble problems and an extremely tough run game schedule has me really worried about this pick – he needs to hold onto the ball long enough to get into the easier part of his schedule and then maybe I’ll get close)
  • Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back. (10 He’s #2 thus far, even in non-ppr leagues – got this one wrapped if he stays relatively healthy – knock, knock)
  • Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year. (10,6,1kind of three predictions here, it looks like its safe to expect he won’t get 15 touchdowns, I still think he’ll be a good receiving option in the Top 10, but I don’t think that, without Brady, he catches more balls this season)
  • Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009. (8 I like my chances, 0-4 thus far, Palmer on the mend, not a good game for Chad in the books yet)
  • The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year. (6 1-2, behind San Francisco and Arizona, but just one game back and getting healthier – I still like the Cardinals to take this division)
  • Neither do the freaking Niners. (6 2-2 thus far, but I like the Cardinals better)
  • Alright, there’s half of the predictions, some good – some bad – such is the way it goes. I’ll run the rest next week. Good luck in your Week 5 ventures!
  • Three for Thursday

    1. Who is the next coach to go and how will it effect your fantasy players? The most likely to go? Lets go with Marvin Lewis. I know that Marv seems to be allowed to say and do what he pleases in Cincinnati, but it’s not such a stretch to see this guy go. He can’t get some guys on the team to buy in, he’s struggling with some big name players, and while that is all the reason in the world to see him be the next to go, nothing is more telling than the signing of Cedric Benson – oh Bungles. Benson has been destined to be a Bengal since he got into the league, no? I can’t wait to see Marvin’s last game as the man in Cincinnati – starting at receiver, Chris Henry!!! At running back, our favorite, Cedriiiiiic…. BENSON!!!! Oh yes, I think Marv just walks out the door and gets into Greyhound bus driving at that point. If Marvin leaves I think you get a little boost from your Bengals offensively. Just a relief from some big name guys I guess, a change, a much needed change. We’ll see, but it doesn’t look good for our not so favorite Marvin. 

    2. Seahawks back at it? Don’t risk it all on the Hawks right off the bat. I know on paper they look a lot better with Branch and Engram running the outsides, but neither of these guys have played football in a while, and it takes a little while to get right back into the swing of things. Still, Branch isn’t a bad bye week option right now, and Engram has the tools to do what he always does. The Hawks throw the ball a lot, and I think they can do some work in New York this week – just don’t expect TO type numbers. 

    3. A guy I really like right now is Ryan Torrain. I just get this feeling that this might be the last week to acquire Ryan before the rest of the guys in your league beat you to it. Nobody is getting a lot of carries in Denver, and it wouldn’t be unlike Mike to, as soon as Ryan is ready, just start giving him 20 carries a game. If that’s the case, he’s a sure thing starter. 2nd half guys, ala Ryan Grant last season, are good options to have. They are fresh and looking to prove their worth. A beast runner in that offense could be deadly.

    One for Wednesday

    Not so Neon, but definitely DEION!: I just don’t get it. Sure, Deion Branch has never put up huge numbers and he was hurt last season and is still recovering from his injury – but how can he get ranked in the 160s to start the season? Some are being led to believe that he won’t play in 2008, or he’ll miss the first half of the year. Give it a rest. This guy just started to practice and may miss a few games, but there is absolutely no reason he should be on a waiver wire in any league with more than 8 fantasy owners. Deion Branch will very likely lead the Seahawks in receiving this season. I’m willing to bet he plays just as many games as Steve Smith (Carolina’s Steve) and puts up his same solid numbers that he always puts up. I think it’d be perfect if he hit 1000 yards this season. No, Dominik Hixon, Donald Lee, Courtney Taylor, Marty Booker, and Jsoh Morgan should not be ranked ahead of him. This is a #1 receiver for a very good passing attack in Seattle. He’s hurt to start the season, but take full advantage of that. He had 49 catches for 661 yards and 4 scores in 11 total games played last season. That’s on pace for 80+ grabs 1000+ yards and 6 touchdowns. YES – he was that good when he was healthy. Buy low! Buy now! Don’t wait or you might be too late. Somebody else might come across this article and jump at the site of the other Deion sitting on the waivers. Don’t go drop Chad to pick up Deion, but please don’t sit on Amani Toomer or DeSean Jackson hoping that they’ll become what Deion already is. I can’t believe how low he’s being rated. 162 on ESPN’s Matthew Berry’s list. You’ve got to be kidding me.