Tag Archives: Matt Leinart

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

Three for Thursday

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1. Somebody in my “most expensive” league just traded Maurice Jones Drew to get the powerful entity known as Antwaan Randel El. Like any other college football fan of the 90’s, I have a certain appreciation for Mr. Randel El that, upon further review, trumps his actual value – so sure, I always see the former Hoosier, the former Steeler, on a fantasy roster. What I don’t see is, in a league where you keep two players, trading a guy as talented as Drew away for a possession receiver that has never been big enough to catch more than a couple touchdown passes. The reasoning behind this whacky trade, you ask: “I didn’t have a third receiver for Week 4.” Oh sweet mother of God. And, “I wasn’t using Jones Drew anyway.” – With Antonio Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Michael Clayton, Donnie Avery, Roscoe Parrish (AR-El 2), and others just playing dominoes on the free agent list, it seems like a ridiculous thing to trade a guy you picked in the first non-keeper round for a receiver that had one decent (not great) week. These kind of trades should be punishable. I see them every year, and they are frustrating. Especially when I don’t get in on them! Damn the man! 

2. Chris Perry’s value. I love what this kid is doing. He really looks good running the ball in Cincinnati – nobody has done that since Rudi was healthy. Perry has speed, vision, and he can catch passes. He hasn’t really played in three years, so you have to believe that he can only get better from here, plus he hasn’t been playing the easiest of defenses either (Baltimore, New York Giants, Tennessee). He plays Dallas next week, then Pittsburgh two weeks after that, but he won’t have a three game schedule tougher than the one he started the season with. If you can get Perry for cheap, and could use some running back help, go for the roses, sir. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a surprise Top 15 running back this season. That’s starter material. 

3. Old Quarterback Show: What do Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Gus Frerotte, Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins, Damon Huard, and Brian Griese have in common? Besides the fact that every one of their old asses is starting in Week 4, they are all very close to being grandpas. Okay, maybe not Grandpas, but closer to 40 than 30 usually isn’t the best thing in this league. But this is why they are all semi-successful at the very least, and starting over younger talents. Unlike the young quarterbacks that enter the league nowadays, these guys all got a chance to learn the game over time. They weren’t rushed into anything, hell, some didn’t even start their pro-careers in the National Football League. But they were taught the right way. They weren’t thrown into a sack-happy-frenzy like David Carr, and they weren’t dumbed down right off the bat like Kyle Boller, Tarvaris Jackson, or Matt Leinart. These guys learned their respective offenses, put in work on the sidelines, saw how it was supposed to be done, and now they’ve been doing it for a long, long time. Gotta love it.

Ten for Tuesday: Week 3

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1. Eddie Royal is still for real. In the one league I didn’t draft Royal in, I just traded for him. Ha. After what Brandon Marshall did to the Chargers I have a feeling more coverage is headed his way. The fact that Royal got the game tying touchdown and the game winning two point conversion thrown his way is just an example of Splinter’s trust in his young ninja turtle – grab him if you can.

2. Darren McFadden is a stud – weird. For those of you that thought D-Mac was going to fall on his face and struggle in his first year running the ball in the NFL game – you are silly rabbits. Anyone can see that this kid has all the running ability and vision in the world. He’s a beast – let that be known.

3. Jonathan Stewart is going to be the man. Yes, DeAngelo Williams will get his carries, but I’m willing to bet that J-Stew finishes the years with more carries, more touchdowns, a better ypc average, and more catches out of the back-field. Both will be an option, which is why either one is a tough start, but if you have both and have to choose one, I’m going with the rookie.

4. Jay Cutler is a top 5 fantasy quarterback – and maybe even more efficient on the football field. Right now, mine go like this for the rest of the season – Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Donavan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner – yes, I may be going out on a bit of a limb here, but I like three ahead of Peyton and one just behind, and Warner might push Manning for his spot.

5. Randy Moss: Now is as good a time as ever to grab the tall receiver. He didn’t do dick last week, and people were already questioning his chances with Super Tom off the field for the season. Let me tell you this – Randy is still a top 5 receiver, and anybody that thinks otherwise doesn’t deserve to have him on their team. So go for the jugular and snipe him away for something way under value – like Santana Moss (if you can). I love me some Randy touchdowns.

6. Marion Barber is a beast. I wouldn’t be stunned if Barber puts up 20 touchdowns this year, hell, I expect that much. Barber is a beast and that Cowboy offense is sadistically good. Barber is a touchdown machine and nobody runs tougher. If you didn’t listen to my predictions and grab Barber early, you are probably too late, but if someone offers him to you, take it and run with it.

7. Unless it’s LT. That’s right, don’t trade LT. He’s still going to go off, probably as early as the Jets. New York has played decent against the run in their first two games, but that won’t last. If LT plays, and I expect he will, I’m predicting 150 yards and a couple touchdowns. After two down weeks in a row, and sounds of a toe injury, it might be a good time to try and plunder superman from his unsuspecting owner. Make it happen.

8. 150, 140, 3 scores: Kurt Warner knows who to throw the ball to apparently. Larry Fitz collected the most yardage from his 6 grabs, while Boldin finished just behind him with 140 yards – but those three scores helped fantasy owners win all over this week. Both receiving options are studs, and both will have brilliant seasons if they stay healthy. If you were smart enough to draft Boldin despite all the “trade me” talk and pre-season hysteria, then you are looking brilliant now. Doesn’t it feel good?

9. J.T. O’Sullivan to the rescue: And after week 1 everyone dropped this guy figuring “no way is he going to put up Mike Martz numbers,” c’mon guys – that’s why you never practice premature edropulation. O’Sullivan will be putting the ball up a lot this year, and many of his passes will be to a running back in Frank Gore that has all the ability to make a lot out of a little. Feel free to pick him up if he’s available. Against sloppy secondaries, which there are a lot of in the NFC, J.T. will be a solid option all year long – same for Bryant Johnson for that matter. After an injury plagued pre-season, Johnson looks like a big fast Martz #1 – can’t hate on that.

10: Maybe the Patriots aren’t that bad after-all. Check out last week’s stuff – this team is still legit, and Matt Cassell will only get better as the season goes on. Remember, this last week was his first start since high-school… Take that Matt Leinart!!!