Tag Archives: Free Sports Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders NFL Prediction

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Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders NFL Prediction: Kudos to the oddsmakers, this line hasn’t changed a bit and 50% of the people rest on either side. Quite amazing, really. It’s games like this that make me stoked to have NFL Sunday Ticket, but it’s games like this that make my friends hate that I have Sunday Ticket. I’m telling you, in sports, I like car wrecks, this thing is a full blown opposite direction fast lanes merging into one bike lane – and I get to see it!

Okay, so I’m pretty sure this line is making the Raiders a solid value bet, if there ever is such a thing. The Chiefs getting 2 points in Oakland is basically calling KC the better team, which I honestly have a hard time accepting – and yes, I’m betting on KC this week. Maybe the line is the way it is because the road team has won the last 6 match-ups between these formerly proud franchises. Now you can walk up to a mime and say, “Chiefs-Raiders” and get a pretty good out loud chuckle. The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs in 3 of the last 4 contests, and I’m pretty sure the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that Oakland can say that about. I’m not kidding.

But all pasts and records aside, the Chiefs, at least to me, are the better team. They are cleaning some things up, and have played close games (even winning one, if you count the Redskins) in 3 of their last 4. They lost to Dallas in overtime, beat Washington in D.C., and just lost by 3 to Jacksonville in Florida last week. The Chiefs are definitely playing their best football of the year. They lost last time they played the Raiders, 10-13, but I think they turn the tables this week. I’m pretty sure losing to Oakland 4 times in 5 games is physically impossible.

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Free NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) Free NFL Pick: Arizona beat Seattle 27-3 last time out, and that game was in Seattle where the Hawks have proven to be one of the best home teams in the NFL. The Cardinals powerful defensive line handled a injury ridden Seahawks offensive line, shut down the Hawks rushing attack, and put pressure on Matt Hasselbeck all game long. I don’t have any reason to believe that this weekend’s tilt between the Seahawks and Cardinals will be any different. I just think that, flat out, the Cardinals are a terrible match-up for the Seahawks, even a Hawks team that doesn’t play soft and have a depleted roster because of injuries. A healthy Hawks team would have trouble with the Cardinals.

Unless of course Kurt and company just has one of those games, something they’ve proven they can do every once in a while. I mean, Kurt and company got smacked around by the Panthers a couple weeks ago – where does that kind of garbage come from? The Hawks can’t put that kind of pressure on Kurt. Warner can pick apart a secondary that tries not to make too many mistakes instead of being aggressive.

The Hawks will try to run the ball, but the Cardinals front 7 are dominant against the run. Arizona’s secondary can get beat deep, no doubt, they give up their fair share of big plays and passing yards, but the Hawks don’t take many chances down field despite having a trio of WRs like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson, and Deion Branch – not to mention a great young TE in John Carlson. The Hawks come out trying not to lose. Arizona is going to beat them up right out of the gates.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats have been awesome this season, rocking an undefeated record still as the season winds down. They’ve played awesome under two different quarterbacks, and didn’t have a real tight game until last week when they beat UCONN by a pair.

West Virginia has had their ups and downs, but they’ve mainly beaten the teams they were supposed to while losing to a team they weren’t expected to beat in Auburn and a very equal team in South Florida. But now they play the Bearcats.

It seems like it’s been West Virginia in this situation over the years. Undefeated, headed into a tough conference game against a team they are better than, but still is tough nonetheless. These Big East teams just seem to beat up on themselves, which allows morons to claim their conference weak despite good records against the “good-strong” conferences. But that’s a different article. What matters here is that this Mountaineer team gets to turn it around and play upset-underdog in Cincinnati this weekend. Sometimes it’s easier to be the hunter – I’m just saying.

What really has me taking West Virginia in this one is the quarterback controversy in Cincinnati. It may just be me, but it seems like any undefeated team that has some little mental hurdle late in the season seems to stumble. In this one, starting QB Tony Pike has been medically cleared to play, but the back-up, Zach Collaros, has been lights out in relief of Pike. And thought Pike has been called the starter “when he gets back”, it looks to me like he is back yet Zach is still the starter. Hmmm… It’s something little, but maybe Zach is looking over his shoulder in this one. It’s a short week to prepare for West Virginia, but a couple Bearcat mistakes and this should be close enough for West Virginia to cover.

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Football Pick

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Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3) Football Pick: Oh, I definitely see what the public likes in Dallas here. The Packers are overrated, they can’t give Aaron Rodgers enough time to use his elite arm and awesome wide receiving corps, yet they think they should throw the ball 75% of the time. They got beat up pretty good by the Vikings, and then went and lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs, everybody’s favorite team to go winless in 2009. Then you look at what the Packers have actually done, who they’ve beaten, you get a number of JV teams and a mediocre Chicago Bears squad. (Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit are their other wins – nice…)

But I have to believe the Pack will come to play on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. The Cowboys didn’t look very good offensively last week against Philadelphia, and I’d almost say that the Eagles beat themselves more than Dallas taking the victory. Obviously Dallas has a pass rush that could give Green Bay a lot of trouble, but they also have WRs that should give the Packers secondary a lot of trouble. Guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones are all very physical receivers that run great routes – the Cowboys are susceptible to the deep ball, and I think Green Bay takes advantage a few times this week.

Those big plays will be enough to get the Packers the home win, or so I imagine – that Tampa loss will act as a nice little wake-up call for a Packers team that better shape up or fade into obscurity. The Cowboys are coming off a huge win over the Eagles, and they didn’t really play that well. That’s a good combination for a Packers cover.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Arizona Wildcats vs California Golden Bears Free Pick

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Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears Free Pick: This game started where it should have been, Arizona favored at a Cal team that just isn’t nearly as good as the Cats – then it moved all the way to California being favored by 2 at home. Now this spread shouldn’t mean much in reality, I mean, 2 points, rarely do 2 points do anything at all – but it’s still ridiculous to me. I got them in the middle, at a pick-em. What has Cal shown against any worth-while team in the Nation, that makes them deserving of being favored against an Arizona team with just 1 Pac-10 loss? The answer, unquestionably, absolutely nothing.

The Bears have beaten college powerhouses like, Arizona State (by two), Washington State (doesn’t count), UCLA (worst record in the Pac 10), Minnesota (not even good in a bad Big 10), Eastern Washington (not even 1A), and Maryland (hiding in their shell all season long). Somehow, that got them ranked at some point. Then they were killed, take that back, embarrassed to the point of giving up against Oregon and USC. But then they had a stacked little schedule of mediocrity, and just like that they were ranked again. Then of course Oregon State made them look terrible again, because, well Oregon State is twice as good as Cal, and I’m guessing that’s the last time the Bears get ranked this season.

Then you have Arizona, beating Central Michigan (decent), losing by 10 to Iowa (9-1 on the season), beating Oregon State, beating Stanford, and running easily through UCLA and WSU of course. This Arizona team has beaten good teams, they’ve dominated bad teams, they are easily the better team here, but Cal has that name, and Arizona isn’t there yet.

Take full advantage, they may be 1-2 on the road, but Arizona is an easy pick here.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Thursday Night Pick

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) Thursday Night Pick: Earlier in the week I posted that San Francisco was a tough match-up for the Bears, I’d like to divulge a little more information on that statement. To start with, any game on the road seems to be tough for the Bears. Away from Soldier Field, the Bears are 1-3, straight up and against the spread. Their only win and cover came against the Seahawks minus Matt Hasselbeck and a plethora of other Seahawks starters. And Seattle could have easily won that game, the Bears snuck one out by 6 points.

But that’s just a start, and that has nothing to do with the 49ers. Aside from their Pittsburgh win in week 2, the Bears have only beaten Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland. Yep. Now, the 49ers have only one good win as well, but San Francisco has played tough against everyone aside from their blowout at the hands of Atlanta 10-45. The 49ers have lost their last 3 by 10 total points, and that was against Houston, Indianapolis, and a Tennessee team playing much better than their 2-6 record insists.

The Bears have played poorly against good teams, San Francisco has played well against everyone. Advantage 49ers. 3 of Chicago’s 4 wins came against teams that didn’t commit to running the ball, teams that don’t eat up the clock and put pressure on the Bears offense to score quickly. Teams that run the ball effectively and eat clock, Atlanta and Cincinnati, well, they made the Bears look bad.

The 49ers have some injury concerns, mainly Joe Staley at OT and Nate Clements, the teams’ best player in the secondary – but they showed over the last couple weeks that they can play well without those guys. When they can run the ball, the 49ers have covered easily – I don’t see them having much trouble running at home against an overrated Bears defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets NFL Prediction

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5) NFL Prediction: Jacksonville might be one of the toughest teams in the NFL to gauge – they can play so terribly against just about anyone, yet they’ve had a couple good games that remind you how good some of their players are. Starting out the season, they fought the Colts until the end, losing by 2. They also upset Houston on the road and smoked Tennessee. Yet they got killed at home by Arizona, straight pooped on by Seattle, they were taken to overtime by the physical powerhouse that is St. Louis, then they gave Tennessee their first win of the season right before allowing KC to come back late and take them the distance, as the Jags barely won by 3 at home to the Chiefs. Gross. One of the reasons they are so hard to predict is you never know what kind of stunt Jack Del Rio is going to pull. I’m sure there are 10 coaches fired in the last couple years that wake up every day wondering how in the hell this guy still has a job.

These teams may be 4-4, and I guess you have to give some credit where it’s due, because your record truly is the ultimate judge of your ability, but in my not so humble opinion, these two .500 teams couldn’t be more different. The only reason the Jaguars even have a chance in this game is that Kris Jenkins is out for the count. But then again, that who bye week, 2 weeks off to prepare for the Jaguars thing kind of counters that.

I like the Jets to win this one by a couple touchdowns. I don’t expect them to let Maurice Jones-Drew do much. Without MoJo, the Jaguars have nothing, especially when you consider the fact that Revis is going to shut Sims-Walker down.

South Florida Bulls vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick

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South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1)Free Pick: These teams are pretty dang equal. Both are 6-2, both have lost to just Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and both have played consistent football all season long, on the road, at home, everywhere. Neither team stuns you with their offensive attack, and while South Florida is a little faster on defense, they are a little smaller as well. Face it, these two teams are equal. But 54% like the road favorites (though favored by just a point).

The advantage that I see for Rutgers is the way they’ve played since Tom Savage took over at quarterback. The freshman gun slinger has been very efficient, made very few costly errors, and turned into a young leader or this football team. Since he started under center, the Knights are 6-1 with their loss being a 24-17 against 12th ranked Pittsburgh. The Scarlet Knights don’t throw interceptions, they don’t fumble the ball, and they control the clock. Sounds like a good bet to me.

South Florida might be the more talented team of the two, but they are known for their late season let-downs. Now, all they’ve done is lost to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, so it’s not like they’ve crumbled to bad teams, and a win against West Virginia helped salvage the last few weeks, but this is a team that hasn’t played well down the stretch of their schedules over the years. B.J. Daniels, like Savage, took over at quarterback for start QB Matt Grothe when Grothe went down with a season ending injury. He’s played well, but the team hasn’t performed better like Rutgers has.

I think momentum is on Rutgers’ side. They are playing at home against an equal opponent. The value is with them.

New Orleans Saints vs St. Louis Rams Pick & Preview

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New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams Pick & Preview: Maybe Vegas knows something we don’t. I say “we” because “we” are picking the Saints. Shoot, 84% of the bets are coming in on St. Louis – that’s never a good sign. And while I am picking New Orleans here, I figure I might as well dig into why Vegas has this line where it is, -13.5, almost begging bettors to take the Saints on the road. This is what I came up with…

This game, pitting these two teams against each other, hasn’t been decided by more than 13 points in any of the last 8 meetings. In the last 10 match-ups, the Saints have never beaten the Rams by more than 6 points. The Saints, despite their undefeated record, have really struggled in each of their last three games. They’ve fallen behind early and had to fight back with everything they’ve got to beat the Dolphins, Falcons, and just recently the Panthers (though all they really had to do against Carolina was wait for them to implode). And to be honest, they didn’t play real well against the Bills or Jets either. People forget that Buffalo was down just 3 points 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. And if it wasn’t for the Jets handing the Saints turnover after turnover, and getting two defensive touchdowns, that game would have been completely different. So there you have it, the Saints have played three dominating games (against the Lions, Eagles, and Giants) during their undefeated 8-0 start to the year, and yet they are being discussed as the best team in football. Well they certainly know how to get the win in tough situations.

So I hope that explains what Vegas is trying to do, and they may be on to something here – but I just can’t buy in enough to go against the grain. I guess I see the Rams games against good teams as a precursor for what’s going to happen Sunday, and a 6-42 loss to Indy, a 10-38 loss to Minnesota, and then 0-35, 17-36, and 0-28 losses to San Fran, Green Bay, and Seattle just doesn’t let me give St. Louis a chance. Who shall win? Vegas or Lucky?