Tag Archives: Free Week 10 Picks

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Thursday Night Pick

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) Thursday Night Pick: Earlier in the week I posted that San Francisco was a tough match-up for the Bears, I’d like to divulge a little more information on that statement. To start with, any game on the road seems to be tough for the Bears. Away from Soldier Field, the Bears are 1-3, straight up and against the spread. Their only win and cover came against the Seahawks minus Matt Hasselbeck and a plethora of other Seahawks starters. And Seattle could have easily won that game, the Bears snuck one out by 6 points.

But that’s just a start, and that has nothing to do with the 49ers. Aside from their Pittsburgh win in week 2, the Bears have only beaten Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland. Yep. Now, the 49ers have only one good win as well, but San Francisco has played tough against everyone aside from their blowout at the hands of Atlanta 10-45. The 49ers have lost their last 3 by 10 total points, and that was against Houston, Indianapolis, and a Tennessee team playing much better than their 2-6 record insists.

The Bears have played poorly against good teams, San Francisco has played well against everyone. Advantage 49ers. 3 of Chicago’s 4 wins came against teams that didn’t commit to running the ball, teams that don’t eat up the clock and put pressure on the Bears offense to score quickly. Teams that run the ball effectively and eat clock, Atlanta and Cincinnati, well, they made the Bears look bad.

The 49ers have some injury concerns, mainly Joe Staley at OT and Nate Clements, the teams’ best player in the secondary – but they showed over the last couple weeks that they can play well without those guys. When they can run the ball, the 49ers have covered easily – I don’t see them having much trouble running at home against an overrated Bears defense.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Free Pick & Preview

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Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers Free Pick & Preview: Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.

Then you have Carolina, a team that can run on anyone and has done so, has played well against two tough teams in two weeks, and are playing at home against a team that can’t stop the run (or pass for that matter). The Falcons are 5-3, the Panthers 3-5, and there you have it, the Panthers have some value at home if you look at it from those perspectives.

But, look out, I’m ignoring those things. I’m ignoring the Panthers 3-1 ATS record in their last 4 games. I’m going with the Falcons because their coaching staff doesn’t get side-tracked into believing they are something they aren’t. They run the ball well, and will do so against Carolina – they pass the ball better than Carolina, and make way fewer mistakes. They don’t do much for me defensively, but that’s okay, because Carolina loves to forget how easy gaining yards on the ground is. They love to become a passing team with the game on the line, and that has led to much failure.

I’ll ignore all that smart betting business for the simple fact that I can trust the Falcons to do the right thing and I can trust the Panthers to screw up a game where they played like the better team. Fair enough? I think so.

Oregon State Beavers vs California Golden Bears Pick

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Oregon State Beavers (+7) @ California Golden Bears Pick: This one is a little weird to me, because when you break down these two teams, I think it’s overwhelming that the best team between the two is Oregon State. I know the Beavers are on the road in this one, but they’ve played well away from Beaver-town this season, losing by a score to USC and beating up ASU outright. They’ve only lost to pretty good teams like USC, Cincinnati, and Arizona. They are impressive, and the Rodgers brothers are special, while running back Jacquizz gets most of the publicity, both are great college players. I’d say James is very underrated. Quizz had over 200 yards rushing and receiving last week, but James also tallied 120 yards of total offense against UCLA. The two are key players in the Beavers’ success.

Cal’s wins are unimpressive, that’s the bottom line. The best team they’ve beaten is either Arizona State or Minnesota – maybe UCLA? And they’ve been obliterated by good competition as Oregon and USC combined to smoke the Bears 72-6 in back to back weeks.

The Beavers have been playing their best football of the season over the last two weeks, winning 3 of their last 4 including a 10 point W over Stanford. Sean Canfield has been awesome as the team’s quarterback, already throwing for over 2000 yards with 11 touchdowns while completing 69% of his passes. His ability to stretch the field with his arm has opened up a lot for the Beavers rushing attack, the strongest aspect of their offense. The Beavers have beaten Cal 8 of the last 10 games, winning at Cal in each of the last 4 visits to California.

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5) Football Pick: A larger percent of the public likes LSU in this one, so much so that the line has dropped to 7.5 from the 9.5 opening. When I made my pick, it was an 8.5 point spread. The public bet is starting to even out, but I can see why most of the bettors like LSU and the points in this one. They’ve lost just one game all year, and that was too one of the Nation’s best teams, Florida, in a very close game, 13-3.

The problem I have with LSU is their ability to score. They’ve struggled offensively against good teams, and Alabama’s swarming defense is one of the best in the nation. The Tide have a fantastic rushing game, and a young quarterback that doesn’t make big mistakes, just 3 interceptions so far this season. Alabama plays the right way, using their run game to out-physical opponents, and the play action pass to stick daggers.

Flat out, I just think LSU is not as good as Alabama. Their rushing attack isn’t as efficient, their offensive line isn’t as good, and as a team their defense isn’t as dominant as the Crimson Tide. I think Alabama has a big performance in this one, beating LSU easily, basically looking a lot better than Florida did when the Gators beat the Tigers earlier this season.

Last season’s win over LSU was Alabama’s first since 2002. The Tigers have beaten the Gators in 7 of their last 8 meetings. The Tigers have finished under the total in each of their last 4 games. The Crimson Tide have finished under the total in each of their last three. Alabama hasn’t lost at home since 2007.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Jose State Spartans NCAA Pick

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Nevada Wolf Pack (-12.5) @ San Jose State Spartans NCAA Pick: This has gone the other way since I made the pick and sent the newsletter out on Tuesday morning, on Tuesday I got the Wolf Pack at -12.5 and it’s 14 points here on Thursday Night. I think it’s pretty clear whom the better team is, and it’s not like San Jose State is a juggernaut at home.

The Wolfpack have one of the more dynamic offensive players in the conference with quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has scored 10 touchdowns (9 rushing, 1 receiving), rushed for 805 yards, and passed for 1471 yards with 13 more touchdowns through the air. He truly does it all for the Wolf Pack. But this team can run the ball, with Colin, 2 other players have rushed for at least 600 yards. Running backs Via Taua and Luke Lippincott have rushed 198 times for 1341 yards and 7 touchdowns.

As a team, the Wolf Pack lead the conference in rushing and have 26 rushing touchdowns already this season. Nevada has won 5 straight after starting the season in a disappointing 3 straight loss fashion. As favorites, Nevada is 5-1 so far this season, 3-3 ATS.

San Jose State has just one win, and that’s against sub division opponent Cal. Poly. 5 of their 6 losses were by double digits. They’ve had a tough schedule, no doubt about it, losses to Boise State, Fresno State, Stanford, USC, and Utah are no joke – those are tough teams in College Football – but the rushing attack in Nevada looks like too much for San Jose State to handle. I’ll take the Wolf Pack to win by at least two touchdowns.