Kentucky Wildcats VS Florida Gators: NCAA Basketball Preview & Prediction

The #2 ranked Kentucky Wildcats might seem like a tough team to bet against, but the books have been even with them this year, as the Cats are 7-7 ATS in during their 16 game winning streak to start the season. Don’t get it twisted, the Wildcats will lose one of these days, they play too many good teams and too many close games, but the question is, will that happen in Florida?

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Working for the Gators is the fact that the Wildcats have only played one true road game this season, a win over an out-matched Indiana ball club. The Wildcats have beat up on some teams over the last 10 games, but they barely skipped by the Heels with a 2 point win and a 3 point win over UConn was also a nail-biter. Most recently, over the last two games, they’ve gotten all they can handle from unranked Louisville and Georgia, but came out victorious in both. They didn’t win the rebound battle in either game. When they out-rebound their opponent, the score reflects it.

But the Gators don’t rebound the ball really great either. They’ve been out-boarded in 6 of their last 10 games, and I have a feeling the Wildcats will get them again on the glass. Now, 76% f the public bet likes the Wildcats to cover, and that makes sense as a small spread and an undefeated team. But the Cats should find a way to out-score the Gators, with toughness if not skill. I’ll take them, going with the public.

Kentucky Wildcats (-2) @ Florida Gators

Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers: Music City Bowl

60% of the betting public likes Clemson, and that makes sense. It’s the Tigers that have finished the season with the type of flourish most expected from them all season long. It’s the Tigers that possess one of the most dynamic players in all of college football, running back, kick/punt return, receiving option, super player C.J. Spiller. There’s lots of flash on Clemson’s side, but one might say that Kentucky finished the season just as strong.

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Both teams lost their last game, but Kentucky, like Clemson, won 5 of their last 7 games. Two of those were as double digit underdogs, beating Georgia and Auburn. Kentucky barely lost to Tennessee (overtime), Mississippi State (a touchdown), and South Carolina (2 points). Their other two losses? Alabama and Florida. Kentucky is 6-6 ATS on the season, and 3-1 overall on the road – a nice stat for bowl teams. They score 27.2 per game while giving up 22.8. They are 5-3 ATS and SU in their last 8 games.

Clemson has won 6 of their last 8, but come into the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl losing two in a row. An embarrassing loss to South Carolina on the road, and a close loss (5 points) to Virginia Tech for the ACC crown. Clemson is 8-5 SU this season, and 8-5 ATS, and 5-3 ATS over their last 8 games.

And taking a decent ACC team over an SEC opponent hasn’t made much sense, but that’s the direction I’m going. Clemson has a solid rushing attack, and when they out-rush opponents, they usually win. Kentucky has been out-rushed 5 times in the last 10 games, they’ve lost 4 of those contests. I think Clemson’s D-line can stifle Kentucky’s rush attack, and that will allow the Tigers to run the show.

Kentucky Wildcats VS Clemson Tigers (-7)

Free NCAA and NBA Basketball Picks: Friday Night

NCAA Hoops Picks:

Morehead State Eagles (+21) @ Kentucky Wildcats: I know Kentucky got their new coach and a bunch of prized recruits, but this Morehead State team is resilient. They return 4 starters form a year ago, and while they lost a key player in Senior, Leon Buchanan, they have some solid players that have played well against big time competition. Better yet, this team fights, they lost 2 games by more than 20 points last season. The first was just an off night in the 2nd game of the season against Vanderbilt, the 2nd was to Louisville. In the NCAA tournament last season, the Eagles lost by 20 to that same Louisville team. I expect it to take the Wildcats a few games to mesh, and while I fully expect them to win, it wouldn’t surprise me if this one is much closer than 20.

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Wright State Raiders @ Washington Huskies (-14): I just think UW’s overall size and athleticism is too much for the Raiders. It might stay close for a while, but with the way UW gambles and runs the floor, a five point lead could turn into twenty in just a few minutes. Wright State does return 4 starters from last year’s team that finished the season much better than they started. UW loses Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman, two key cogs in the Huskies success a year ago, but Dentmon’s services will be replaced by fantastic freshman Abdul Gaddy, and Brockman’s absence will only allow the Huskies to run the floor more against lesser teams. UW is long enough to rebound at all positions. I haven’t even talked about Isiah Thomas yet – the sophomore was awesome in his first season with the Huskies, and I only expect him to be better this time around.

NBA Hoops:

Atlanta Hawks (+9) @ Boston Celtics: The first game in ESPN’s double header seems like a great bet. The Hawks are one of the better teams in the East, they play good defense, and this game has definitely turned into a rivalry after a tough playoff match-up. This game is often a close one, finishing 6 points or closer in 5 of the last 8 contests. The road team has won 8 of the last 10, Atlanta has won 3 of the last 5 in Boston. Both teams are coming off a free day. Should be a good one.

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L.A. Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (-3): Gotta like Denver tonight, they haven’t played very well lately, but get the benefit of coming off a long road trip early in the season, and getting to play at home. Whew, what a load off. L.A. didn’t have a real tough game against Phoenix last night, but they still played, and they still are missing their second best player. The Lakers have a chance, of course, they have Mr. Bryant, but I like the Nuggets’ chances. This is the late game on ESPN Friday Night Basketball.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Week 12 College Football Picks Review: 2007

A couple games under .500 this time around, this is how a half a point here, and a half a point there took me under the parallel bars.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Pick Review

Free Picks: Week 12

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Cincinnati Bearcats (+6): win
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

They didn’t quite get the win, but my 6 points were just enough to cover and get me a much needed NCAA win to start off my week. The Mountaineers were too fast offensively for Cinci when it came right down to it, and with a win, they kept a fat chance open for a National Championship run if the right dominoes fall.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-11.5): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

So, I was wrong about Pittsburgh. I thought they’d mail it in after a loss to Navy, but they’ve played pretty well late in the season, including a close loss to the Knights on Saturday. Rutgers didn’t dominate like I thought they would, something that has happened once or twice already this season.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Kansas Jayhawks (-26): win
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: WSEX)

“The Cyclones are one of the worst teams in college football, despite playing well in a big game or two this season (close game against Oklahoma and a win over Iowa come to mind) but they have also absolutely sucked against superb offenses (which the Jayhawks definitely have).” The Cyclones continued their trend, and the Jayhawks once again dominanted a lesser opponent. It will be interesting to see what happens when they play the Tigers this coming weekend.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

This half point loss wasn’t what I needed. I thought the Wildcats would have too much of a passing attack for the Bulldogs, but in the end, Georgia’s pressure off the edge put the Wildcats in one too many long yardage situations, and Georgia won by 8.

Duke Blue Devils (+6) @ Notre Dame: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

The dream died, and in quite possibly the game that decided the worst team in college football, the Blue Devils once again stepped up to prove that they were the proud owners of that Burger King Paper Crown. The Irish won big, and let me tell you, that will be the last time that happens this season.

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Maryland Terrapins (+7.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: loss (half point)
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+8.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Bodog)

Tulane Green Wave (+2) @ Rice Owls: win
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Northwestern Wildcats (+13.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini: loss
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Idaho Vandals (+34.5) @ Boise State Broncos: loss
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Two half a point losses turned what could have been a 6-4 into a 4-6. There’s always next week! A 3-2 record with my elite picks made me feel a little better, but 7-8 overall isn’t much to be excited about.

Week 4 College Football Picks Review: 2007

Can I post yet another winning handful of picks in Week 4? Another week, another winner. Sure, I was only 3-2, but 60% isn’t bad, now is it? Yes, that’s a winning number, and if you put up the cash, you might just find that 60% makes you money. This is the path on took to 3 wins and two losses.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Florida Gators (-23) @ Mississippi Rebels: (loss)
Florida barely pulled this one out, and a 23 point cover was completely out of the question by the time this one got through the first few minutes. Overall, Ole Miss played well, but even in their bad days, the Gators look unbeatable. I get a loss.

Duke Blue Devils @ Navy Midshipmen (-12): (loss)
Duke covered again, making me rethink my use of my old gimmie pick. Duke always use to be a crappy loser that I could rely on to give me a much needed win. Not this week, that’s for sure.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7) @ Arkansas Razorbacks: (win)
“The truth of the matter is, I think Andre’ Woodson is special, like Darren McFadden special, except the difference here is, Woodson is a quarterback, and in College Football, I’ll take a talented team with a special QB over a talented squad with a top notch RB. I think Kentucky has more balance, and therefore will win this game. You’ve got to like the points, too.” (me) Arkansas looked good, but in the end, their run-heavy attack just wasn’t enough. When Dick needed to come out and get his offense going, the Razorbacks struggled. On the other hand, when the Wildcats needed a big play, Woodson did his damage.

Michigan State Spartans (-12) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (win)
This one didn’t start off good for me, and I was thinking, DAMN! But then the real Fighting Irish stood right up and the Michigan State Spartans of all teams just straight took it to the Irish. Notre Dame is bad, folks, and I don’t know if its getting much better any time soon.

Arizona Wildcats @ California Golden Bears (-16): (win)
Once again, the Bears just barely pulled out a cover in this one. I’m tired of watching Cal come out and stomp teams and think, “Ha, I’ve got this one in the bag,” before allowing lesser teams right back in the game to where I think “Ha, freaking Cal, at it again,” and then either barely covering to give me some heart relief, or just blowing the spread all together and making me want to write bad things about them all week long.

Free College Football Picks Week 4 – 2007

Can I post yet another winning handful of picks in Week 4? Ah, that is the question. I will go in with these 5 squads, and go headfirst, with the confidence paralleling the brave 300. Hopefully I don’t hit the skids in the end like those guys in the movie – on the other hand, if I can get some abs like that, I’ll give up the last few years of my life and spend the next 20 years lifting up my shirt instead of using dumb pickup lines. Either way, here’s my Free Picks for Week 4.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Florida Gators (-23) @ Mississippi Rebels: 9/22/07 12:30pm EST
I’d be hard pressed to find a team in the Nation as good as the Gators. Florida can do it defensively and with the ball, making opposing teams look foolish every time out. The Rebels are solid, but they don’t have the players to match up with the Gators. I understand that this is a tough game for Florida, as they just knocked of Tennessee last week, but I have a feeling that Tim Tebow leads too much by example for the Gators to struggle in this one. That kid loves to compete, and beat the piss out of you he will.

Duke Blue Devils @ Navy Midshipmen (-12): 9/22/07 1:00pm EST
Duke ended their 22 game losing streak last week. It made me sad. What better way to celebrate one of the Nation’s longest losing streaks than by losing to a military team? That’s what I’m saying. I’m also saying that Navy isn’t as bad as a 1-2 record would insist. They’ve played solid football this season, and I expect them to route the Blue Devils in this one.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7) @ Arkansas Razorbacks: 9/22/07 6:00pm EST
Believe it or not, Kentucky has won 2 of the last 3 games between these two clubs. Last time these teams played, in 2003, the Razorbacks won 71-63. To be honest, I really think the world of both these clubs, and both will get their character tested because each squad played a huge game last week. Kentucky beat Louisville and Arkansas lost to Alabama by a field goal. The truth of the matter is, I think Andre’ Woodson is special, like Darren McFadden special, except the difference here is, Woodson is a quarterback, and in College Football, I’ll take a talented team with a special QB over a talented squad with a top notch RB. I think Kentucky has more balance, and therefore will win this game. You’ve got to like the points, too.

Michigan State Spartans (+12) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 9/22/07 3:30pm EST
I don’t like either of these teams, but what has Notre Dame showed to be anything more than a 25 point dog? Sure, they are Notre Dame, but this week they lost their opening day starting quarterback to a transfer. How did he break the news to Charlie Weis and the staff? He didn’t make the bus trip to Michigan. C’mon. The Irish are falling hard, to the point where a couple wins seems unlikely. Anyone… Is Temple or Duke scheduled? I didn’t like the Spartans to start the season, but the new coaching staff has proven to be impressive, so I’ll easily take them here.

Arizona Wildcats @ California Golden Bears (-16): 9/22/07 6:00pm EST
I am one of the guys that believes the Bears are WAY better than they’ve been playing. However, that shouldn’t matter too much this week, as even at their steady pace, they are 3 scores better than the Wildcats. I understand that Arizona has been known to surprise from time to time, but a 1-2 Wildcat team that lost to BYU by 13 and New Mexico, shouldn’t come even close the Bears. This could be the breakout game the Bears offense has been waiting for.