UCLA Bruins vs Washington State Cougars Pick & Preview

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UCLA Bruins (-18) @ Washington State Cougars Pick and Preview: I don’t think there’s much to this game. The spread is small because the Bruins haven’t been able to score that much. But don’t get it twisted, they haven’t played a team like the Cougars either – this isn’t going to be a “low scoring game”. One of the two teams will walk away with a pretty low score, but if this is any closer than 35-10 I will be absolutely stunned. Heck, I’ll be downright amazed if the Cougars get passed the Bruins 30 yard line more than twice on Saturday.

The Cougars give up an average of 38.6 points per game. But it doesn’t matter how good your offense is, it’s just hard to score much more than 40 points against a bad team that doesn’t compete – you stop trying to score so much and start running out the clock, this happens to the Cougars on a weekly basis, and I’m telling you, just because the Bruins only average about 20 points a game doesn’t mean they won’t put up 30+ in Cougar-land.

What has to be scaring bettors is the Cougars cover against Arizona State. But that was a fluke game, and USC only putting up 27 on the Cougs in their match-up, that was a low point for the Trojans over the last decade. The Bruins defense is good, their front 4 will not allow anything for free, and I doubt the Cougars will be throwing their way to a cover. I full expect a huge difference in this game.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Arizona Wildcats vs California Golden Bears Free Pick

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Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears Free Pick: This game started where it should have been, Arizona favored at a Cal team that just isn’t nearly as good as the Cats – then it moved all the way to California being favored by 2 at home. Now this spread shouldn’t mean much in reality, I mean, 2 points, rarely do 2 points do anything at all – but it’s still ridiculous to me. I got them in the middle, at a pick-em. What has Cal shown against any worth-while team in the Nation, that makes them deserving of being favored against an Arizona team with just 1 Pac-10 loss? The answer, unquestionably, absolutely nothing.

The Bears have beaten college powerhouses like, Arizona State (by two), Washington State (doesn’t count), UCLA (worst record in the Pac 10), Minnesota (not even good in a bad Big 10), Eastern Washington (not even 1A), and Maryland (hiding in their shell all season long). Somehow, that got them ranked at some point. Then they were killed, take that back, embarrassed to the point of giving up against Oregon and USC. But then they had a stacked little schedule of mediocrity, and just like that they were ranked again. Then of course Oregon State made them look terrible again, because, well Oregon State is twice as good as Cal, and I’m guessing that’s the last time the Bears get ranked this season.

Then you have Arizona, beating Central Michigan (decent), losing by 10 to Iowa (9-1 on the season), beating Oregon State, beating Stanford, and running easily through UCLA and WSU of course. This Arizona team has beaten good teams, they’ve dominated bad teams, they are easily the better team here, but Cal has that name, and Arizona isn’t there yet.

Take full advantage, they may be 1-2 on the road, but Arizona is an easy pick here.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction

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Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11) Prediction: I got this game at 11, it has moved to 12, but the points shouldn’t matter here. Oregon brought it to the Dogs, smacking them around in fine 43-19 fashion (and it wasn’t that close) and I expect the Beavers to do something similar to that. Teams that fully commit to running the ball against UW just embarrass the Dawgs. I basically think the Beavers, in their home stadium, are the Huskies worst nightmare.

Jake Locker may get all the hype, and he may be the more elite pro prospect, but Sean Canfield has impressed me more this season. Jake is a physical freak, one of the more impressive athletes I’ve seen play the QB position, but Sean is super accurate, completing 70% of this passes on the season. He has a very calm pocket presence and hangs in to make the big throw. He doesn’t make mistakes, mainly because he’s so accurate, and is basically the ideal quarterback to lead a dominating running attack like OSU has. But I don’t even know if Canfield will matter much in this game – I truly think the Beavers could hand the ball off every single play and win by two touchdowns.

The Huskies have lost 5 of their last 6 games after beating USC. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 after losing by five to Arizona. The Beavers’ only losses have come against USC, Cincinnati (both in close games), and Arizona. But it’s not about who they’ve played, but how these two match-up. Like Oregon, the Beavers are a nearly impossible match-up for the Huskies.

Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick

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Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick: When you look at their most recent against a common opponent (Purdue), this game looks very scary. The Wolverines just barely lost to Purdue after falling apart in the second half, 36-38, while the Badgers smoked the Boilermakers 37-0. So all by itself, that looks scary. Then if you look at what Wisconsin has done lately, killing purdue after playing tough against Iowa, and then beating Indiana – they look even better. And then you have to look at Michigan lately, try 3 straight losses, including a 12-38 beatdown by Illinois, of all teams, and this game looks like a sure Wisconsin win. But wait, there’s more reasons to go against my pick – the Wolverines are 0-3 on the road this year. What am I doing here?

I’m looking at the bigger picture, that’s what. The Wolverines and Badgers are very equal teams. That’s right, look at it all and take it in. Both lost a close game to Iowa (besides Northwestern, who hasn’t lost a close game to Iowa?) – both got beat up by one of the best teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin 13-31 vs Ohio State, Michigan 10-35 vs Penn State) – both played close with Michigan State (Wisconsin winning by a score, Michigan losing in overtime), both beat Indiana by 3, both have beaten up on a lesser team or two, and both have had their poor performances (Wisconsin struggled but won against Northern Illinois and Fresno State – Michigan got killed by Illinois) – I’m telling you, these teams are more equal than their records insist. Better yet, they’re more equal than a 10 point spread.

Michigan has struggled over the last 3 games, no doubt, but it’s hard for me to ignore their start to the season where they either won or played close to every team they went up against. I expect them to get back to respectability against an overrated Wisconsin team.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket vs Duke Blue Devils Pick

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: Listen Duke has played admirably so far this season, and Georgia Tech has stumbled (not lost, but had trouble with) against teams that can put the ball in the air with success (see Miami, Wake Forrest, Florida State, and Miami). But can your really put Duke in that category of teams? I can’t.

I know the Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the ACC (record-wise), but who have they beaten? Army in Week 2, North Carolina Central, NC State, Maryland, and Virginia. None of those teams are holding little yellow jacket jock straps.

The Jackets have won 7 straight games, covering the spread in 6 of the last 7. Aside from the Miami game, they’ve outrushed every single opponent they’ve played. Duke has lost the rushing attack battle in 9 of their last 10 games – including giving up nearly 200 yards rushing to Carolina, a team Georgia Tech out-rushed by 300 yards.

Against common opponents (though means little, but in this case it helps my argument so I’m going to share it as the grain of salt it is) Tech has looked like the much better team. GT beat Virginia 34-9 in a game that was never close, Duke battle the Cavaliers and won by 11. GT beat North Carolina 24-7, Duke lost to their Tar Heeled rivals 19-6. GT beat Virginia Tech, Duke lost by 12.

The only red flag is that the Yellow Jackets haven’t played awesome defensively against solid ACC passers. I just can’t see that one aspect adding up to a cover here. I’ll take Georgia Tech.

NCAA Football Free Picks: Week 11

My NCAA Free Picks have 10 games this week, and I’m rolling with the favorite in more than a few. I do have three dogs though- we’ll see how this group plays out. My first game is Thursday Night, and then another on Friday Night, so get those early picks in if you feel my flow… Good Luck! 

TCU Horned Frogs (-2) @ Utah Utes: Well, the Utes are 9-0, that enough is reason to take the TCU Horned Frogs on Thursday Night – undefeated teams should never play on Thursday Night. That being said, I think TCU is the better team and they have nothing to lose here. Also, you always want to take a lower ranked team that is favored over a higher ranked opponent. All these things make this a nice play for me. 

Nevada Wolfpacks (+2.5) @ Fresno State Bulldogs: I know Fresno had a lot of hype coming into the season, a possible BCS Buster and all that jazz, but they just haven’t played well. They are 5-3, so they are making wins happen while playing less than stellar football, but the Wolfpack can play ball. It’s not a big trip for Fresno, they’ve played well against solid teams, and I think they pull the upset here. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (-11.5) @ Northwestern Wildcats: I know Northwestern came out and played through their injuries well against the Minnesota Golden Gophers last week, but something tells me those injuries will catch up with them this time around. Ohio State still has BCS dreams, and the Wildcats won’t get in the way of that. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: Tough team, the Lions are playing on the road, it’s a big conference game, the Lions are undefeated and looking for a Championship, and the Hawkeyes are really underrated. This is the time for them to blow it and come out sluggish. But they are well coached and won’t do such a thing. They win by at least two touchdowns. 

Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+24): Tough to bet against Florida after the beatdowns they’ve been putting on the rest of the SEC these days, but I have to think Vanderbilt plays the Gators tighter than 3 touchdowns and a field goal. They have more resilience than that. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5): I like Oklahoma State, but Texas Tech is very good. Last week wasn’t the normal “upset of #1” instance that usually takes place, and thus I don’t see a let down for Tech this week. TT is a very good football team, and they should have won the game that they won last week. They will win again this week, and I just see a lot of value with Tech at -7 or less against anyone, especially at home. 

North Texas Mean Green (+23) @ Florida Atlantic Owls: I’m interested to see how this one turns out, because despite the records, I see these guys within a score of each other in terms of ability and my team ranking system. I think it’s generally bad to go against unranked teams favored by more than three touchdowns, but the Mean Green look just mean enough in this one. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College (-3.5): Tough call but I don’t think Notre Dame can beat teams that win football games. The Eagles are far from “good” but they aren’t bad, that’s for sure. BC does some good things on defense and offensively. Notre Dame is still overrated. 

Arizona State Sun Devils (-14) @ Washington Huskies: Free Money? I hate to say it, but that’s what it feels like here. Washington isn’t as bad as Washington State, but that’s not saying much. Arizona State has been playing bad, but there’s no kind of medicine that can make you feel better than a date at UW. 

Arizona Wildcats (-38) @ Washington State Cougars: There is absolutely no reason this spread should be so high, except of course because WSU will lose against the spread anyway and thus it only makes sense. It’s that bad folks. Bad weather, at home, everything working in their favor, Arizona wins by 6 touchdowns easy. That being said, this has to back fire one of these days, right?