Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Arizona Wildcats vs California Golden Bears Free Pick

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Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears Free Pick: This game started where it should have been, Arizona favored at a Cal team that just isn’t nearly as good as the Cats – then it moved all the way to California being favored by 2 at home. Now this spread shouldn’t mean much in reality, I mean, 2 points, rarely do 2 points do anything at all – but it’s still ridiculous to me. I got them in the middle, at a pick-em. What has Cal shown against any worth-while team in the Nation, that makes them deserving of being favored against an Arizona team with just 1 Pac-10 loss? The answer, unquestionably, absolutely nothing.

The Bears have beaten college powerhouses like, Arizona State (by two), Washington State (doesn’t count), UCLA (worst record in the Pac 10), Minnesota (not even good in a bad Big 10), Eastern Washington (not even 1A), and Maryland (hiding in their shell all season long). Somehow, that got them ranked at some point. Then they were killed, take that back, embarrassed to the point of giving up against Oregon and USC. But then they had a stacked little schedule of mediocrity, and just like that they were ranked again. Then of course Oregon State made them look terrible again, because, well Oregon State is twice as good as Cal, and I’m guessing that’s the last time the Bears get ranked this season.

Then you have Arizona, beating Central Michigan (decent), losing by 10 to Iowa (9-1 on the season), beating Oregon State, beating Stanford, and running easily through UCLA and WSU of course. This Arizona team has beaten good teams, they’ve dominated bad teams, they are easily the better team here, but Cal has that name, and Arizona isn’t there yet.

Take full advantage, they may be 1-2 on the road, but Arizona is an easy pick here.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction

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Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11) Prediction: I got this game at 11, it has moved to 12, but the points shouldn’t matter here. Oregon brought it to the Dogs, smacking them around in fine 43-19 fashion (and it wasn’t that close) and I expect the Beavers to do something similar to that. Teams that fully commit to running the ball against UW just embarrass the Dawgs. I basically think the Beavers, in their home stadium, are the Huskies worst nightmare.

Jake Locker may get all the hype, and he may be the more elite pro prospect, but Sean Canfield has impressed me more this season. Jake is a physical freak, one of the more impressive athletes I’ve seen play the QB position, but Sean is super accurate, completing 70% of this passes on the season. He has a very calm pocket presence and hangs in to make the big throw. He doesn’t make mistakes, mainly because he’s so accurate, and is basically the ideal quarterback to lead a dominating running attack like OSU has. But I don’t even know if Canfield will matter much in this game – I truly think the Beavers could hand the ball off every single play and win by two touchdowns.

The Huskies have lost 5 of their last 6 games after beating USC. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 after losing by five to Arizona. The Beavers’ only losses have come against USC, Cincinnati (both in close games), and Arizona. But it’s not about who they’ve played, but how these two match-up. Like Oregon, the Beavers are a nearly impossible match-up for the Huskies.

Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick

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Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick: When you look at their most recent against a common opponent (Purdue), this game looks very scary. The Wolverines just barely lost to Purdue after falling apart in the second half, 36-38, while the Badgers smoked the Boilermakers 37-0. So all by itself, that looks scary. Then if you look at what Wisconsin has done lately, killing purdue after playing tough against Iowa, and then beating Indiana – they look even better. And then you have to look at Michigan lately, try 3 straight losses, including a 12-38 beatdown by Illinois, of all teams, and this game looks like a sure Wisconsin win. But wait, there’s more reasons to go against my pick – the Wolverines are 0-3 on the road this year. What am I doing here?

I’m looking at the bigger picture, that’s what. The Wolverines and Badgers are very equal teams. That’s right, look at it all and take it in. Both lost a close game to Iowa (besides Northwestern, who hasn’t lost a close game to Iowa?) – both got beat up by one of the best teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin 13-31 vs Ohio State, Michigan 10-35 vs Penn State) – both played close with Michigan State (Wisconsin winning by a score, Michigan losing in overtime), both beat Indiana by 3, both have beaten up on a lesser team or two, and both have had their poor performances (Wisconsin struggled but won against Northern Illinois and Fresno State – Michigan got killed by Illinois) – I’m telling you, these teams are more equal than their records insist. Better yet, they’re more equal than a 10 point spread.

Michigan has struggled over the last 3 games, no doubt, but it’s hard for me to ignore their start to the season where they either won or played close to every team they went up against. I expect them to get back to respectability against an overrated Wisconsin team.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket vs Duke Blue Devils Pick

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: Listen Duke has played admirably so far this season, and Georgia Tech has stumbled (not lost, but had trouble with) against teams that can put the ball in the air with success (see Miami, Wake Forrest, Florida State, and Miami). But can your really put Duke in that category of teams? I can’t.

I know the Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the ACC (record-wise), but who have they beaten? Army in Week 2, North Carolina Central, NC State, Maryland, and Virginia. None of those teams are holding little yellow jacket jock straps.

The Jackets have won 7 straight games, covering the spread in 6 of the last 7. Aside from the Miami game, they’ve outrushed every single opponent they’ve played. Duke has lost the rushing attack battle in 9 of their last 10 games – including giving up nearly 200 yards rushing to Carolina, a team Georgia Tech out-rushed by 300 yards.

Against common opponents (though means little, but in this case it helps my argument so I’m going to share it as the grain of salt it is) Tech has looked like the much better team. GT beat Virginia 34-9 in a game that was never close, Duke battle the Cavaliers and won by 11. GT beat North Carolina 24-7, Duke lost to their Tar Heeled rivals 19-6. GT beat Virginia Tech, Duke lost by 12.

The only red flag is that the Yellow Jackets haven’t played awesome defensively against solid ACC passers. I just can’t see that one aspect adding up to a cover here. I’ll take Georgia Tech.

Clemson Tigers vs NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick

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Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick: As I expected, the spread value has moved away from Clemson, not surprising considering the Tigers’ talent and their success of late. It’s now at 8, but I got the Tigers at 7. Thus far, 65% of the public likes Clemson, and I imagine even more of them liked the Tigers as just a touchdown favorites. And get ready, because there’s more than a few methods to my Tiger-on-the-road pick where they are a paltry 1-3 so far this season.

Clemson has lost one pathetic game, getting beat by the Terps in Maryland 21-24. Aside from that, they’ve played pretty solid football against everyone. They’ve beaten Boston College, FSU, Miami, and Wake, those last 3 during their current 4 game winning streak. The Tigers had trouble against the heavy rushing teams they’ve faced this year, TCU, Georgia Tech, and Nebraska – all out-rushed the Tigers and did a solid job stopping the run.

That is not NC State’s offense. They give the ball to their talented QB, Russell Wilson, and they throw the rock. They’ve done so for over 2,500 yards this season, and Wilson has 24 touchdowns through the first 9 games. Clemson has turned to C.J. Spiller and the Tiger rushing attack, and they’ve reaped the benefits of one of the best runners in all the land. Defensively, they do a good job limiting opposing rushing attacks, and put pressure on opposing passers without having to blitz too often.

Lastly, and possibly most important, the Wolf Pack’s injury report has more patients than a high priced Hollywood rehab clinic. Already 10 players have been listed as “out for the season” – they have one more guy that is questionable, and another WR out indefinitely. If they can piece together a roster to stop C.J. Spiller and produce consistent touchdowns against the Tigers’ defense, they deserve to beat my pick.