Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Arizona Wildcats vs California Golden Bears Free Pick

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Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears Free Pick: This game started where it should have been, Arizona favored at a Cal team that just isn’t nearly as good as the Cats – then it moved all the way to California being favored by 2 at home. Now this spread shouldn’t mean much in reality, I mean, 2 points, rarely do 2 points do anything at all – but it’s still ridiculous to me. I got them in the middle, at a pick-em. What has Cal shown against any worth-while team in the Nation, that makes them deserving of being favored against an Arizona team with just 1 Pac-10 loss? The answer, unquestionably, absolutely nothing.

The Bears have beaten college powerhouses like, Arizona State (by two), Washington State (doesn’t count), UCLA (worst record in the Pac 10), Minnesota (not even good in a bad Big 10), Eastern Washington (not even 1A), and Maryland (hiding in their shell all season long). Somehow, that got them ranked at some point. Then they were killed, take that back, embarrassed to the point of giving up against Oregon and USC. But then they had a stacked little schedule of mediocrity, and just like that they were ranked again. Then of course Oregon State made them look terrible again, because, well Oregon State is twice as good as Cal, and I’m guessing that’s the last time the Bears get ranked this season.

Then you have Arizona, beating Central Michigan (decent), losing by 10 to Iowa (9-1 on the season), beating Oregon State, beating Stanford, and running easily through UCLA and WSU of course. This Arizona team has beaten good teams, they’ve dominated bad teams, they are easily the better team here, but Cal has that name, and Arizona isn’t there yet.

Take full advantage, they may be 1-2 on the road, but Arizona is an easy pick here.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction

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Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11) Prediction: I got this game at 11, it has moved to 12, but the points shouldn’t matter here. Oregon brought it to the Dogs, smacking them around in fine 43-19 fashion (and it wasn’t that close) and I expect the Beavers to do something similar to that. Teams that fully commit to running the ball against UW just embarrass the Dawgs. I basically think the Beavers, in their home stadium, are the Huskies worst nightmare.

Jake Locker may get all the hype, and he may be the more elite pro prospect, but Sean Canfield has impressed me more this season. Jake is a physical freak, one of the more impressive athletes I’ve seen play the QB position, but Sean is super accurate, completing 70% of this passes on the season. He has a very calm pocket presence and hangs in to make the big throw. He doesn’t make mistakes, mainly because he’s so accurate, and is basically the ideal quarterback to lead a dominating running attack like OSU has. But I don’t even know if Canfield will matter much in this game – I truly think the Beavers could hand the ball off every single play and win by two touchdowns.

The Huskies have lost 5 of their last 6 games after beating USC. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 after losing by five to Arizona. The Beavers’ only losses have come against USC, Cincinnati (both in close games), and Arizona. But it’s not about who they’ve played, but how these two match-up. Like Oregon, the Beavers are a nearly impossible match-up for the Huskies.

Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick

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Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick: When you look at their most recent against a common opponent (Purdue), this game looks very scary. The Wolverines just barely lost to Purdue after falling apart in the second half, 36-38, while the Badgers smoked the Boilermakers 37-0. So all by itself, that looks scary. Then if you look at what Wisconsin has done lately, killing purdue after playing tough against Iowa, and then beating Indiana – they look even better. And then you have to look at Michigan lately, try 3 straight losses, including a 12-38 beatdown by Illinois, of all teams, and this game looks like a sure Wisconsin win. But wait, there’s more reasons to go against my pick – the Wolverines are 0-3 on the road this year. What am I doing here?

I’m looking at the bigger picture, that’s what. The Wolverines and Badgers are very equal teams. That’s right, look at it all and take it in. Both lost a close game to Iowa (besides Northwestern, who hasn’t lost a close game to Iowa?) – both got beat up by one of the best teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin 13-31 vs Ohio State, Michigan 10-35 vs Penn State) – both played close with Michigan State (Wisconsin winning by a score, Michigan losing in overtime), both beat Indiana by 3, both have beaten up on a lesser team or two, and both have had their poor performances (Wisconsin struggled but won against Northern Illinois and Fresno State – Michigan got killed by Illinois) – I’m telling you, these teams are more equal than their records insist. Better yet, they’re more equal than a 10 point spread.

Michigan has struggled over the last 3 games, no doubt, but it’s hard for me to ignore their start to the season where they either won or played close to every team they went up against. I expect them to get back to respectability against an overrated Wisconsin team.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket vs Duke Blue Devils Pick

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: Listen Duke has played admirably so far this season, and Georgia Tech has stumbled (not lost, but had trouble with) against teams that can put the ball in the air with success (see Miami, Wake Forrest, Florida State, and Miami). But can your really put Duke in that category of teams? I can’t.

I know the Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the ACC (record-wise), but who have they beaten? Army in Week 2, North Carolina Central, NC State, Maryland, and Virginia. None of those teams are holding little yellow jacket jock straps.

The Jackets have won 7 straight games, covering the spread in 6 of the last 7. Aside from the Miami game, they’ve outrushed every single opponent they’ve played. Duke has lost the rushing attack battle in 9 of their last 10 games – including giving up nearly 200 yards rushing to Carolina, a team Georgia Tech out-rushed by 300 yards.

Against common opponents (though means little, but in this case it helps my argument so I’m going to share it as the grain of salt it is) Tech has looked like the much better team. GT beat Virginia 34-9 in a game that was never close, Duke battle the Cavaliers and won by 11. GT beat North Carolina 24-7, Duke lost to their Tar Heeled rivals 19-6. GT beat Virginia Tech, Duke lost by 12.

The only red flag is that the Yellow Jackets haven’t played awesome defensively against solid ACC passers. I just can’t see that one aspect adding up to a cover here. I’ll take Georgia Tech.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick: The Broncos are 6-0, undefeated, just like the Colts and Saints – yet they’ve only been favored twice all season long. They were favored at home against the Cleveland Browns (by 3) and in Oakland against those always powerful Raiders (by 1). 6 games down, 6 wins in the bag, and just two times they’ve been favored to do so, and those were against a couple of the worst teams in football – amazing. And here they are again, going up against a physical Ravens team, be them 3-3, and Denver is once again a Dog. Does the fairytale have to stop? I’m not so sure, but this game should be one hell of a rough and tumble affair. But getting just a hair more than a field goal, I have to like that in a game that almost promises to be tight. Combined, these two teams are a bettor’s dream, 10-2 ATS on the season. Baltimore has played in 5 close games so far this season. Their only blowout, the Browns. Even Kansas City hung tough well into the 4th. 3 of Denver’s 6 wins have come by a touchdown or less. It’s just in their blood, they play tough, they limit mistakes, they tackle well, they cut down on the big play. It’s Broncos or nothing here, that’s where my value-meter stands.

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Pick & Preview

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Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Bills have feasted on opposing quarterbacking mistakes – but I’m sorry, Matt Schaub isn’t a rookie and he’s definitely not Jake Delhomme. Also, the Texans don’t need to pass the ball to win, and the Bills can’t focus their defense on one thing the Texans do to win. Houston can win a lot of ways, and they have a lot of weapons. If you haven’t noticed, Matt Schaub has become one of the better QBs in the NFL. He can throw the ball against anyone, and he has. The Bills’ defense still has a lot of people either missing from or questionable in Sunday’s game. They have an offense that is limited at best. Despite Houston’s history they have been better defensively of late. Sure, the 49ers got back in the game in the 2nd half last week by finding Vernon Davis for 3 touchdowns, but the Texans shut down one of the better rushing attacks in the league, and have shown the ability to make opposing offenses do something they don’t want to do. In a shoot out, the Texans get the nod. In a close game, the Texans have the ability to make that big play that wins the game. They are favored by a field goal on the road, something that has been scary for Texans’ backers for a long time. But this team is a little different. I expect them to battle for a playoff spot, they know this one is important with some big games against solid teams coming up – they have to beat the teams that they are supposed to beat. I’m taking the Texans by a field goal and expecting them to win by a touchdown, maybe two.

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears Pick & Preview

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Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Chicago Bears Pick and Preview: I know, big dogs have been suicide all season long, and this very well might be another one of those, lord knows the Browns have it in them – but at the very least, Cleveland has been a defense that forces opposing quarterbacks into bad throws, and if you don’t think Jay Cutler is prone to interceptions than you have been smoking the good stuff. The Browns can, at least, run the football. They have a powerful offensive line, a very underrated unit, and a couple running backs that can get 4 yards a pop. The Bears can be run on, they are beat up in the front 7, they need to commit to helping in the secondary (because they struggle there) and the bottom line is there’s space to run in Chicago. Sure, the Browns have a brutal run defense, sure, they’ve gotten blown out a few times this year, but I think they can stick with the Bears. Chicago will have to show me one heck of a lot more before I take them as a two touchdown favorite this season. They make mistakes on offense, they allow big plays on defense, and they are prone to quick offensive series – that won’t take advantage of Cleveland’s biggest weakness. Always tough to take the Brownies, but the value is with them on the road.

Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys Free NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) Free Pick: I really want to pick the Seahawks, and at first that’s exactly the directions I was going to go, then I thought about it a little more and though that if Matt Hasselbeck has no time to throw against a physical and athletic defense in Dallas, I don’t see the Hawks making many big plays. Earlier in the year, Dallas was struggling to attack the passer, but it’s hard to imagine that being the case against this make-shift offensive line Seattle has been forced to put together. And now the Cowboys are bringing pressure with ease. Not only that, but Dallas’s offense, a group that had been struggling to find an identity, has seemingly figured it out over the past couple weeks, finding a young receiver named Miles Austin to be the playmaker down the field. With Marion Barber and Felix Jones getting healthier by the day, and Tony Romo seemingly back at his confident place, the Cowboys looks as scary as people expect them to be. The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much. I’ll take Dallas at home.

St. Louis Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free Pick

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St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Now lets start with some interesting statistics this year. The Rams have lost every game by double digits, besides their 2 point loss to the Washington Redskins, and lets be honest, that really doesn’t count. That being said, they have played some pretty damn good teams, the Seahawks in Week 1 had Matt Hasselbeck, and everyone has seen how different they are with him at the helm. Week 3, 4, and 5 saw Green Bay, San Francisco, and Minnesota meet up with the Rams, and the outcomes weren’t pretty. I mean, they’ve managed just 34 points through 5 games, even the Browns think that’s terrible. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a very up and down team. They played the Colts tough in Week 1, losing 14-12 to Peyton and company. They then got thrown around in Jacksonville by the Cardinals, 31-17, and to be honest it wasn’t that close. Two straight wins to even up their record (taking down the Texans and Titans) got them some respect before Seattle came back to destroy any of that by beating them 41-0. That score isn’t a misprint. I’ve missed on the Jaguars a lot this year, but I still don’t think they deserved to be favored by 10 points against anybody. The Rams are getting healthy, as they should have the healthiest offense they’ve had all year. If they commit to the run, and I think they will, they have a chance to cover agaisnt the Jaguars. They are the worst team in football, but I haven’t liked what I’ve heard out of Jacksonville this week. Turmoil isn’t good when you’re about to play a game that’s difficult to get up for in the first place. It might be a one time thing, but I’m taking St. Louis.