Tag Archives: Free Picks against the spread

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Pick & Preview

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New York Jets (+11) @ New England Patriots Pick & Preview: I’m a firm believer that you don’t give a good team double digits and cover the spread very often. I know that if anyone can do it, it’s a pissed off Patriots team that is looking to take the heat of their coach’s back, a team that saw the Jets out-play, out-work, and out-physical them earlier in the year when New York upset the Pats. But just because I know the Patriots have it in them doesn’t mean I’m going to bet the way of the Pats – the value is too good on New York, and it’s not like their heads are swollen from playing too good over the last few weeks. After coming back to reality after a hot start, I know the Jets will be fully prepared for what New England has to offer this Sunday Afternoon.

First and foremost, the Jets have a cat that matches up pretty well with Randy Moss, that, in and of itself, is something most teams can only dream about. Darrelle Revis was tough on Randy in the first game, and while I don’t expect Moss to struggle to make plays as much this time around, I do expect him to be held under his season averages.

Next, the Jets have a solid offensive line and a rushing attack that eats clock and should force the Patriots to pay extra attention to the run. I think Mark Sanchez, though he’s struggled at times, has the big game flare in his blood, and he’ll make some nice plays to keep this one close. 11 is too many. I’ll take them points!

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction

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Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals Prediction: Dan LeFevour isn’t to be messed with. The kid has done it all for the Central Michigan Chipps – really, he’s done it all. The Chipps are 8-2, 7-2 ATS, and clearly the best team in the MAC West. They are undefeated in conference, with a tough loss to Arizona and a nice win over Michigan State. And who to they have to thank? Dan LeFevour. Dan leads the team in Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes for 2189 yards through 10 games. He also has 568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in those 10 games. The kid deserves Heisman consideration but will likely never get it because of his “little” school.

Ball State has just one win and that’s because they don’t pass efficiently, completing a low percentage on the season while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t run the all well either, getting out-rushed in half their games. They out-rushed Eastern Michigan by 300+ yards and still won by just 2 points. Unless CMU hits a wall, this should be a 28 point game at it’s closest.

Central Michigan is 4-2 on the road this season (4-2 ATS as well), Ball State is winless at home (1-4 ATS). Central Michigan is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records. Those numbers mean very little to me, I just thought I’d throw them out there. Central Michigan has had a full week to prepare for this game, it’s been a short week for the Cardinals.

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick

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Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.

Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.

Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.

Free NCAA and NBA Basketball Picks: Friday Night

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NCAA Hoops Picks:

Morehead State Eagles (+21) @ Kentucky Wildcats: I know Kentucky got their new coach and a bunch of prized recruits, but this Morehead State team is resilient. They return 4 starters form a year ago, and while they lost a key player in Senior, Leon Buchanan, they have some solid players that have played well against big time competition. Better yet, this team fights, they lost 2 games by more than 20 points last season. The first was just an off night in the 2nd game of the season against Vanderbilt, the 2nd was to Louisville. In the NCAA tournament last season, the Eagles lost by 20 to that same Louisville team. I expect it to take the Wildcats a few games to mesh, and while I fully expect them to win, it wouldn’t surprise me if this one is much closer than 20.

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Wright State Raiders @ Washington Huskies (-14): I just think UW’s overall size and athleticism is too much for the Raiders. It might stay close for a while, but with the way UW gambles and runs the floor, a five point lead could turn into twenty in just a few minutes. Wright State does return 4 starters from last year’s team that finished the season much better than they started. UW loses Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman, two key cogs in the Huskies success a year ago, but Dentmon’s services will be replaced by fantastic freshman Abdul Gaddy, and Brockman’s absence will only allow the Huskies to run the floor more against lesser teams. UW is long enough to rebound at all positions. I haven’t even talked about Isiah Thomas yet – the sophomore was awesome in his first season with the Huskies, and I only expect him to be better this time around.

NBA Hoops:

Atlanta Hawks (+9) @ Boston Celtics: The first game in ESPN’s double header seems like a great bet. The Hawks are one of the better teams in the East, they play good defense, and this game has definitely turned into a rivalry after a tough playoff match-up. This game is often a close one, finishing 6 points or closer in 5 of the last 8 contests. The road team has won 8 of the last 10, Atlanta has won 3 of the last 5 in Boston. Both teams are coming off a free day. Should be a good one.

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L.A. Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (-3): Gotta like Denver tonight, they haven’t played very well lately, but get the benefit of coming off a long road trip early in the season, and getting to play at home. Whew, what a load off. L.A. didn’t have a real tough game against Phoenix last night, but they still played, and they still are missing their second best player. The Lakers have a chance, of course, they have Mr. Bryant, but I like the Nuggets’ chances. This is the late game on ESPN Friday Night Basketball.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats have been awesome this season, rocking an undefeated record still as the season winds down. They’ve played awesome under two different quarterbacks, and didn’t have a real tight game until last week when they beat UCONN by a pair.

West Virginia has had their ups and downs, but they’ve mainly beaten the teams they were supposed to while losing to a team they weren’t expected to beat in Auburn and a very equal team in South Florida. But now they play the Bearcats.

It seems like it’s been West Virginia in this situation over the years. Undefeated, headed into a tough conference game against a team they are better than, but still is tough nonetheless. These Big East teams just seem to beat up on themselves, which allows morons to claim their conference weak despite good records against the “good-strong” conferences. But that’s a different article. What matters here is that this Mountaineer team gets to turn it around and play upset-underdog in Cincinnati this weekend. Sometimes it’s easier to be the hunter – I’m just saying.

What really has me taking West Virginia in this one is the quarterback controversy in Cincinnati. It may just be me, but it seems like any undefeated team that has some little mental hurdle late in the season seems to stumble. In this one, starting QB Tony Pike has been medically cleared to play, but the back-up, Zach Collaros, has been lights out in relief of Pike. And thought Pike has been called the starter “when he gets back”, it looks to me like he is back yet Zach is still the starter. Hmmm… It’s something little, but maybe Zach is looking over his shoulder in this one. It’s a short week to prepare for West Virginia, but a couple Bearcat mistakes and this should be close enough for West Virginia to cover.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Arizona Wildcats vs California Golden Bears Free Pick

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Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears Free Pick: This game started where it should have been, Arizona favored at a Cal team that just isn’t nearly as good as the Cats – then it moved all the way to California being favored by 2 at home. Now this spread shouldn’t mean much in reality, I mean, 2 points, rarely do 2 points do anything at all – but it’s still ridiculous to me. I got them in the middle, at a pick-em. What has Cal shown against any worth-while team in the Nation, that makes them deserving of being favored against an Arizona team with just 1 Pac-10 loss? The answer, unquestionably, absolutely nothing.

The Bears have beaten college powerhouses like, Arizona State (by two), Washington State (doesn’t count), UCLA (worst record in the Pac 10), Minnesota (not even good in a bad Big 10), Eastern Washington (not even 1A), and Maryland (hiding in their shell all season long). Somehow, that got them ranked at some point. Then they were killed, take that back, embarrassed to the point of giving up against Oregon and USC. But then they had a stacked little schedule of mediocrity, and just like that they were ranked again. Then of course Oregon State made them look terrible again, because, well Oregon State is twice as good as Cal, and I’m guessing that’s the last time the Bears get ranked this season.

Then you have Arizona, beating Central Michigan (decent), losing by 10 to Iowa (9-1 on the season), beating Oregon State, beating Stanford, and running easily through UCLA and WSU of course. This Arizona team has beaten good teams, they’ve dominated bad teams, they are easily the better team here, but Cal has that name, and Arizona isn’t there yet.

Take full advantage, they may be 1-2 on the road, but Arizona is an easy pick here.

South Florida Bulls vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick

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South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1)Free Pick: These teams are pretty dang equal. Both are 6-2, both have lost to just Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and both have played consistent football all season long, on the road, at home, everywhere. Neither team stuns you with their offensive attack, and while South Florida is a little faster on defense, they are a little smaller as well. Face it, these two teams are equal. But 54% like the road favorites (though favored by just a point).

The advantage that I see for Rutgers is the way they’ve played since Tom Savage took over at quarterback. The freshman gun slinger has been very efficient, made very few costly errors, and turned into a young leader or this football team. Since he started under center, the Knights are 6-1 with their loss being a 24-17 against 12th ranked Pittsburgh. The Scarlet Knights don’t throw interceptions, they don’t fumble the ball, and they control the clock. Sounds like a good bet to me.

South Florida might be the more talented team of the two, but they are known for their late season let-downs. Now, all they’ve done is lost to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, so it’s not like they’ve crumbled to bad teams, and a win against West Virginia helped salvage the last few weeks, but this is a team that hasn’t played well down the stretch of their schedules over the years. B.J. Daniels, like Savage, took over at quarterback for start QB Matt Grothe when Grothe went down with a season ending injury. He’s played well, but the team hasn’t performed better like Rutgers has.

I think momentum is on Rutgers’ side. They are playing at home against an equal opponent. The value is with them.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction

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Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11) Prediction: I got this game at 11, it has moved to 12, but the points shouldn’t matter here. Oregon brought it to the Dogs, smacking them around in fine 43-19 fashion (and it wasn’t that close) and I expect the Beavers to do something similar to that. Teams that fully commit to running the ball against UW just embarrass the Dawgs. I basically think the Beavers, in their home stadium, are the Huskies worst nightmare.

Jake Locker may get all the hype, and he may be the more elite pro prospect, but Sean Canfield has impressed me more this season. Jake is a physical freak, one of the more impressive athletes I’ve seen play the QB position, but Sean is super accurate, completing 70% of this passes on the season. He has a very calm pocket presence and hangs in to make the big throw. He doesn’t make mistakes, mainly because he’s so accurate, and is basically the ideal quarterback to lead a dominating running attack like OSU has. But I don’t even know if Canfield will matter much in this game – I truly think the Beavers could hand the ball off every single play and win by two touchdowns.

The Huskies have lost 5 of their last 6 games after beating USC. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 after losing by five to Arizona. The Beavers’ only losses have come against USC, Cincinnati (both in close games), and Arizona. But it’s not about who they’ve played, but how these two match-up. Like Oregon, the Beavers are a nearly impossible match-up for the Huskies.

Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick

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Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick: When you look at their most recent against a common opponent (Purdue), this game looks very scary. The Wolverines just barely lost to Purdue after falling apart in the second half, 36-38, while the Badgers smoked the Boilermakers 37-0. So all by itself, that looks scary. Then if you look at what Wisconsin has done lately, killing purdue after playing tough against Iowa, and then beating Indiana – they look even better. And then you have to look at Michigan lately, try 3 straight losses, including a 12-38 beatdown by Illinois, of all teams, and this game looks like a sure Wisconsin win. But wait, there’s more reasons to go against my pick – the Wolverines are 0-3 on the road this year. What am I doing here?

I’m looking at the bigger picture, that’s what. The Wolverines and Badgers are very equal teams. That’s right, look at it all and take it in. Both lost a close game to Iowa (besides Northwestern, who hasn’t lost a close game to Iowa?) – both got beat up by one of the best teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin 13-31 vs Ohio State, Michigan 10-35 vs Penn State) – both played close with Michigan State (Wisconsin winning by a score, Michigan losing in overtime), both beat Indiana by 3, both have beaten up on a lesser team or two, and both have had their poor performances (Wisconsin struggled but won against Northern Illinois and Fresno State – Michigan got killed by Illinois) – I’m telling you, these teams are more equal than their records insist. Better yet, they’re more equal than a 10 point spread.

Michigan has struggled over the last 3 games, no doubt, but it’s hard for me to ignore their start to the season where they either won or played close to every team they went up against. I expect them to get back to respectability against an overrated Wisconsin team.