Tag Archives: Free Picks against the spread

Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket vs Duke Blue Devils Pick

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: Listen Duke has played admirably so far this season, and Georgia Tech has stumbled (not lost, but had trouble with) against teams that can put the ball in the air with success (see Miami, Wake Forrest, Florida State, and Miami). But can your really put Duke in that category of teams? I can’t.

I know the Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the ACC (record-wise), but who have they beaten? Army in Week 2, North Carolina Central, NC State, Maryland, and Virginia. None of those teams are holding little yellow jacket jock straps.

The Jackets have won 7 straight games, covering the spread in 6 of the last 7. Aside from the Miami game, they’ve outrushed every single opponent they’ve played. Duke has lost the rushing attack battle in 9 of their last 10 games – including giving up nearly 200 yards rushing to Carolina, a team Georgia Tech out-rushed by 300 yards.

Against common opponents (though means little, but in this case it helps my argument so I’m going to share it as the grain of salt it is) Tech has looked like the much better team. GT beat Virginia 34-9 in a game that was never close, Duke battle the Cavaliers and won by 11. GT beat North Carolina 24-7, Duke lost to their Tar Heeled rivals 19-6. GT beat Virginia Tech, Duke lost by 12.

The only red flag is that the Yellow Jackets haven’t played awesome defensively against solid ACC passers. I just can’t see that one aspect adding up to a cover here. I’ll take Georgia Tech.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks Pick

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Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+3) Free NCAA Pick: This game is bound to be a shoot out, a real passing attack, the clock will probably stop every other play – and thus points will be scored, no doubt about it. Both teams pretty much rely solely on the passing game. While Bowling Green’s quarterbacks have been more efficient, the Redhawks are right up there in passing yards as well. To win this one, they’ll have to cut down on the turnovers.

Miami has played a lot better football over the past three weeks while Bowling Green has struggled a bit going 1-1 over their last couple games. The Falcons beat the Buffalo last week, but it wasn’t smooth sailing. The Falcons needed 14 unanswered fourth quarter points to beat the Bulls by a point. Watching that game didn’t scream Bowling Green to me. They were outplayed, out-rushed, out-gained and it took a touchdown pass with seconds on the clock to get a win. They shouldn’t have won that game.

That being said, it’s not as if Miami is more consistent. They’ve struggled much of the season, they’ve only won a single game all season long, so it makes sense that most people see them doing what they’ve done all year, and losing another football game. But that’s not always how it works.

Miami-Ohio has beaten Bowling Green each of the last 3 seasons, and 9 out of the last 10 times these two teams have met. They are 8-2 ATS in those 10 games, and each of the last 3 seasons they have beaten the Falcons as an underdog. History doesn’t mean much, but it means something.

Toledo Rockets vs Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick

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Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick: There was a type-o on my original selection in the Newsletter sent out Tuesday morning. I wrote that I picked the Rockets because the spread was way too inflated, but on the newsletter it highlighted the Chipps (+16) instead of Toledo (+16). This game has already moved to 17 in just about every book, 17.5 in a couple. But historically, that’s just way to high. Great value in the Rockets here.

Central Michigan have been favored by more than 16 points just once all season long, and they’ve played worse teams than Toledo. What does that tell you? Well, the cool-aid is wearing crazy Chippewa colors, and despite their solid start to the season, a win by two scores is still impressive, and I don’t expect much more from the Chipps.

The Rockets are 6-4 over Central Michigan over the last 10 seasons, but the Chipps are 4-0 in the last 4 years. Central Michigan has covered 4 out of the last 5 as well. Toledo is 3-1 O/U on the road this season. The Chipps are 2-1 O/U at home. Toledo is just 2-2 on the road, but have been in each of their 2 road losses late.

The one big question for me in this one is the health of #1 and 2 quarterbacks for Toledo. Both are questionable headed into Wednesday’s game, but they haven’t played in over 10 days, and the chances of one, if not both, being able to suit up on Wednesday Night is looking pretty good. I’ll gamble, I’m taking the Rockets.

California Golden Bears vs Arizona State Sun Devils Pick

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California Golden Bears (-6.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: From the outset, this looks eerily like a gimmie game for the Golden Bears, so I’m going to walk you through my steps to understand what they heck Vegas is doing by making the Bears less than a touchdown favorite against an Arizona State team that really hasn’t looked very good at all. Step 1: Is there some kind of freakish injury to a key Bear player that would constitute a spread this low in a game that seems pretty lopsided? Nope, the Bears have one player on the injury report and he’s been there since August… Step 2: are the Bears overrated? You bet, they are way overrated, but they are still way better than the Sun Devils. Step 3: Does Arizona State do something offensively that could leave the Bears vulnerable? Well, anyone that can score points leaves the Bears defense vulnerable, but no, Arizona State runs it a little, can pass it a little, but generally, when they get out-rushed, they lose. They’ve been out-rushed 4 times this year, their only win in those games? Louisiana Monroe. Don’t get me wrong, Cal has disappointed, and almost always they struggle against good teams. Fortunately for you, and for me, the Sun Devils are a bad team, and that is the type of situation that Cal thrives in. I think they win by 3-4 touchdowns in Arizona.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Free College Pick

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Georgia Bulldogs @ Florida Gators (-15) Pick & Preview: The Bulldogs have played some decent football at times this year, but overall I think they’re overrated. The Gators haven’t really moved the ball well or played mistake free football over the last three weeks, their defense has been winning them football games – so yeah, needless to say, a team that talented is due for a breakout offensive performance. I know the Gators have had a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and a lot of those guys are still questionable headed into Saturday’s SEC showdown with the 5-2 Bulldogs, I know that. But I also know that the back-ups on defense have been solid, that Georgia’s offense will have one hell of a hard time doing anything against the Gators back-ups, and that Tim Tebow and company shouldn’t find the same frustrations in moving the ball against that very giving Georgia defense. In 8 of the last 10 match-ups between these two, the home team has walked away with the W – however, the road team has won the last two meetings. Florida beat the Bulldogs by 39 points last season. These teams are not equal, don’t get it twisted. Ignore the Gators recent struggles, this is a team that will turn it around soon, better to be ahead of that curve!

USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football Pick

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USC Trojans (-10) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: You can’t get lucky every week, even if you are Irish. Notre Dame has had a lot of help, “officially”, and I doubt that continues against one of the more talented teams in the country. USC took a loss to Washington earlier this year, but they are still 4-1, and still showing dominance against lesser foes. Don’t get it twisted, the Irish are a lesser foe. Remember, USC hasn’t lost a game that Matt Barkley started. A lot of injuries usually kills a team, but a team with the roster talent like USC can do work. I expect Notre Dame to score more than the 3 points Cal put up last week, but Southern California will find plenty of open spaces to put up points against Notre Dame’s porous defense. 35-14, maybe 20, seems right to me. I’ll take the Trojans!

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick

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Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Nights (+5.5): I guess Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh and that’s somehow the reason they are favored by 5.5 points playing at Rutgers on a Friday Night? Otherwise I can’t really explain it. Both teams have one loss, and neither looked pretty in the process. But Rutgers has played consistently better defense, giving up just 35 points over the last 4 games. And ready for this – since taking over at quarterback full time, Tom Savage has led his team to 4 straight wins. Not enough is said about that, not many people know. Savage has been very efficient, and better yet, mistake free. Look for him to continue his solid play, and at the very least, Rutgers is a nice value bet as a 5.5 point dog at home.

Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons Free College Pick

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Wyoming Cowboys (+10.5) @ Air Force Falcons: This is the year Wyoming gets back at Air Force for taking them out in each of the last three seasons. Both teams run the ball really well, and while Air Force is a little more disciplined and a little more efficient on the ground, Wyoming throws the ball a little better and does a good job with the little things. Plus, I just think these teams are too even for a 10.5 point spread. Wyoming comes in playing their best football of the season and fixed some tough of the issues they had earlier in the season. Basically, Austyn Carts-Samuels has taken over the starting quarterback job for good, and in the last three games he’s really given the Cowboys an air threat. I think his play keeps this game close.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Florida Gators Free NCAA Pick

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Arkansas Razorbacks @ Florida Gators (-24): I like the Gators to put up around 45 points against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Unlike LSU and Tennessee, the Razorbacks will drop back to pass in hopes of doing what they do best to win the game. That will play into what Florida does best, shut down opposing passing attacks, prey on mistakes, and turn all those short field opportunities to scores. The Gators haven’t played a game where they’ve given up two touchdowns yet this season. I think Arkansas is the best passing attack they’ve faced so far, but I still don’t think that transfers to more scoring chances for the Razorbacks. Florida should continue their defensive dominance, they have too many good players with too much speed. 42-10 sounds about right to me. I’ll take the number one team in the land!

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

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Virginia Tech Hokies (-3) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: I just think the Hokies are flat out a lot better than the Yellow Jackets. G-Tech has played well lately, but they give up too many points. You can’t do that against VaTech, it just doesn’t work. Why? you ask, because Virginia Tech doesn’t give up lots of points. The only chance you have is to beat them in a tough contest. A high scoring game will only end one way, with the Hokies on top. Three points? I don’t care that 70% of the public agrees with me, I’m not even worried.