Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.
Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.
Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.