Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick: First of all, anytime you get a team favored by double digits that averages one more point per game than they give up, have a record of 6-8, and have an offense that is, in no way whatsoever explosive, you are certainly taking a big chance by going with that team. So here I am, taking a big chance in Week 16 long after I’ve had plenty of time to learn my lesson.

What intrigues me about the 49ers is their pass first offense and how it might just help them get way up against a team like the Lions. In almost every other situation, I hate that the Niners have become a pass happy team working in the spread, giving the ball to Frank Gore not enough times, and generally passing themselves into trouble – but against Detroit? I’m not quite as worried, that’s for sure. But 11 points? Tough one to stomach.

But we’re not just talking about the 49ers here. No, no. We’re not just talking about a team that is just 6-8, a team that lost to Seattle for goodness sake. But while we are talking about them, let me mention that in 4 of their 6 wins, they’ve won by double digits.

The reason I’m taking the 49ers by 11 is because they are playing the freaking Lions. Detroit is a battered team, and even when they were healthy, the best they could do was become a 2-12 team with 9 double digit losses this season. I’m not 100% sure, but I’m willing to bet that’s more double digit losses than any other team in the league. Good enough for me – I’ll take the Niners!

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11)