Tag Archives: Week 17 Free Picks

Papas Picks: Week 17 NFL Underdogs Bets

Posted on by

Well I was only 2-3 last week as the Raiders, Jaguars, and Redskins all let me down with stinkers that basically exemplify everything I hate about those three franchises. The Redskins never know what they have, so how the hell can you? The Jaguars can play awesome football against good teams, put themselves in a nice position to succeed, then come out and crap all over themselves like this guy Samson that hangs out down past 31st and Douglas. And the Raiders, well, Al Davis made a deal with the Devil, and when the Devil came to collect, Al Davis promised he wouldn’t kill him if he didn’t kill him… got that? Hate. So this week I’ll leave those three pathetic crumbs off my list of dogs, and we’ll go with some teams with gumption. Believe it!

no banners

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals: They say that the Packers don’t have anything to play for, and while that may be true, neither will the damn Cardinals. That’s right, they will get a home game in Week 1 of the playoffs, and that’s about it. By the time this game gets going, Minnesota will have already won and Arizona will be once again, playing for nothing. The Packers brass claim their guys will be treating this like a regular week – and that’s enough for me, I’m in. Plus I think Green Bay is flat out better.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2): The Bucs have won two straight, and I’m just as stunned as anyone. This will be 3 straight. Atlanta is a playoff caliber team, suiting up in Week 17 with no chance at the post-season. That right there is enough to count them out.

New Orleans (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have a decent running game, and Drew Brees is out, and I assume other Saints will be resting as well – but they are still playing the Panthers, and betting against the Panthers when they are a touchdown favorite seems like a great bet.

Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Buffalo Bills: Really? +10? I mean, I know the Colts will be sitting lots of guys, but these are the Bills we’re talking about, and it’s not like the Colts have been terrible when using back-ups all season long. You forget, this defense just plugs in players and succeeds. I’m not guaranteeing a win, but the Colts should cover a dime spot.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting game, for the NFC East Championship and a possible first round bye if the Eagles win. Dallas won last time, in Philly, and I think the Eagles return the favor.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Preview

Posted on by

This is a scary match-up for Denver, I’m telling you. Sure, Denver is in a must win situation against a pretty bad Chiefs team, and they are playing in Denver to boot, but with everything happening the way it has happened this week in Denver, and with the Chiefs coming in running the ball well, this game could be a grinder. And a grinder against a bottom 5 team to get into the playoffs is never a good thing.

no banners

I know the Broncos can beat up on the Chiefs, they’ve done so against lower level competition a few times already this year, but can they do it with all the crap flying around this team right now? The benching of your best player because he’ supposedly over-doing his hamstring injury? They need to win and get in, and all the Chiefs have to do is come and make it a game? This game has upset written all over it.

You might say that the Chiefs, like the Rams, have nothing to play for except hurting themselves come draft time – but they aren’t going for the top pick, and they aren’t committed to any one position come draft time, plus a win for this first year coach over a team fighting for the playoffs would be huge for the team’s confidence going forward – that, my friends, is something to play for. And I like all those points, seems like too many to me!

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals Pick & Preview

Posted on by

Another game that seems too simple. First and foremost, throw out the idea that you are betting on the best team, absolutely not! You can do that a lot, and you can look for match-ups and trends and how teams play against other teams with similar strengths, weaknesses, etc. – but when the end of the year comes a rocking, you can just go on ahead and throw all that garbage right out the window. At that point, with the garbage splattering on another innocent onlooker, you can see the real simple reason to bet one side or another. For example, in this game, the Cardinals are still playing for a shot at home field advantage while the Packers have absolutely no shot to win anything from this game.

no banners

So, if the Packers have any reason whatsoever, and you can bet that they do, they will come out with Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Driver, Jennings, and every other Packer stud resting firmly on the bench. They’ve done their best work down the stretch, and honestly, they have more to lose (with momentum and injury risk) by actually coming out and trying to win this game in Arizona than they do by sitting down and watching back-ups take one on the chin.

Trying to win and losing (see New Orleans and Minnesota) can do some definite mo-damage while dropping back and staying healthy that final week rarely has an effect, one way or another, on your squad. The Cardinals are still playing for a shot at homefield advantage and a first round bye (believe it or not), so I see them playing starters until they have this game locked up. That’s enough for me.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3):

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

Posted on by

I can’t help but tell you the truth, I like the Eagles, and I want them to win. That being said, and if you read me with any sort of consistency, you’ll recognize that I go against a team I want to win just as much as I bet on them. It’s because I don’t bet with my heart, I don’t pick with my feelings, and I completely separate the two (betting and rooting) from each other. This just happens to be one of those times where my heart and brain come together as one, and I’m taking the Eagles.

no banners

I’ve always been a strong believer in the truth to the idea that a tough team is hard to beat twice in the same season. This season that’s happened more than a couple times, but those couple times aren’t going to eliminate my feelings on the idea, and I think the Cowboys have a tough time taking down the Eagles for the second time this season. The first win came in Philadelphia, and it was earlier. Well, since then the Eagles have found themselves a bit, and come in looking like one of, if not the best team in the NFC heading into the playoffs. Of course that can all change with one beat down at the hands of the Cowboys, but like I said, I don’t see that happening.

The Cowboys are on a roll, beating the Saints (though they tried to lose that one late), and smacking the Redskins right in their lopsided heads. But they should have beaten the Redskins, and the win over the Saints was a big underdog affair. I think the Eagles put a little pressure on Romo and down go the Cowboys in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Pick

Posted on by

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easily playing their best football of the season, running with success and playing much better defense. Not only did they smack around the Seahawks two weeks ago, using an arsenal of turnover causing defensive plays, but they went and upset a fully-healthy New Orleans Saints team in New Orleans last week as well, all behind rookie signal caller Josh Freeman. It’s really quite fantastic, I mean beating up on the Seahawks in Seattle is one thing, almost expected if you spend time watching them quit Sunday after Sunday, but the Saints in New Orleans – awesome.

no banners

But that can’t last. You might think it can, but I’m here to tell you it can’t. The won both those games on the road, and that will make winning at home just a little bit different, just a little too different. The Bucs have a solid run-game, but I think the Falcons will feast on a couple arrant Freeman passes, and hello, Atlanta is good. I know they are hurting, definitely a team beat down by injuries this year, but they still have playmakers, and are just flat out better than Tampa Bay.

It all comes down to Tampa Bay winning three games in a row, and how I just absolutely cannot buy into it. If it was a one game thing, with Tampa coming in losing five straight, I could see the upset, but after winning two games in a row? Nope.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams Free NFL Pick

Posted on by

There’s not much too this game in my opinion. The Rams absolutely, in no way whatsoever, if the organization has any sense or feel for their own team and franchise, can not win this football game. They just can’t accept a win here. If they won, they would finish in a tie (likely) with the Detroit Lions, and that would go to a tie breaker for the draft, and that would give the Lions the number one pick over the Rams, and that would eliminate their chance at getting the best player in college football, Mr. Suh. So, like I said, they absolutely can not win this game.

no banners

Luckily for them, they probably couldn’t win this game if they tried. They can’t throw the ball and they are playing against one hell of a run-stuffing unit in San Francisco – plus, the Niners are always trying to win, and their coach will make sure it happens, as a Week 17 win would assure the 49ers a .500 season, something they have to be trying hard to get to considering how much of a win that is for this once proud franchise.

The 49ers have been playing pretty good football over the last few weeks, beating Arizona and Detroit and losing to the Eagles. They’ve been running the ball a lot more, and that gives them the consistency they need to succeed against lesser teams. This one is easy folks, I like the 49ers by 17 points.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams:

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Week 17 NFL Picks

Posted on by

This is a tough one indeed. The Giants have all but given up on that evil little tomato-toned rat faced coach of theirs, and it’s even worse for the defensive coordinator. I can’t say I don’t enjoy it a little bit though, in fact, I like it a lot. Nothing makes me happier than seeing those stupid looks from Eli and Coach Coughlin – every single time it has brand new humor to me. The question is, have they given up? Because it’s not like the Vikings are playing sound football either. And it’s not like the Giants are an easy match-up for the Vikings either, as New York matches up well with what the Vikings’ coaches want to do offensively.

no banners

But I’m starting to think the Vikings are ready to actually give this team to Brett. Everyone saw what he could do last week when you open it up a little, and this Giants secondary has become an embarrassing group to watch. Offensively, the Giants can throw it around pretty good, but they don’t have any of that key balance that allows teams to get out of reach.

Having nothing to play for, being frustrated as a group, having no chance at keeping the Vikings out of the playoffs or messing things up for anyone else, I think the Giants are close to a rollover candidate this week, and with Minnesota all in trying to win and get home field advantage, if not at least get back on track and playing good football before the post-season smacks them in the face. I think they take advantage of Week 17 and get going with a big win.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)

NFL Free Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

Posted on by

It’s hard for me to take a Dolphins team that just couldn’t get it done against the Tennessee’s and Houston’s of the world when the playoffs were on the line. Now, the Dolphins need nothing short of a belated Christmas miracle to find themselves in the playoffs, and the only thing that stands in-between them and finishing their part of the bargain is the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers and a defense designed to shut down all of their strengths.

no banners

Did I mention that the Steelers are finally getting some big wins, and after losing five straight games to “all but eliminate” them from any chance at the playoffs, have won two straight ball games against future playoff teams and are currently back in the picture if the cards fall right?

It seems like a lot of stuff going Pittsburgh’s way in this one, but there’s one thing that has me retracing my steps a little bit, and making sure I don’t wager too much on this game. The Steelers have been talking all week, and so have the media types, and it seems like, between them, the Steelers are already getting a notch in the win column for this game. I know a lot about sports, and one of the key parts of playing a good game is putting a notch in the win column after you win the game.

I still like the Steelers, as they match up well with the Dolphins, but this one should be tight.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers NFL Week 17 Predictions

Posted on by

I know the Saints aren’t starting Drew Brees, and who knows who else they are leaving in the locker room, on the bench, at home, etc., but I still expect them to compete for a win. New Orleans is loaded with position players, and they have enough difference makers that will be playing a lot of the game that I like them as a 8.5 point underdog against the Panthers.

no banners

You have to remember, while the Panthers’ passing attack has been solid over the last few weeks, the heart and soul of that attack is out with a broken arm, and the Panthers are still missing plenty of players that will make a big win tough against New Orleans, even if the Saints are playing a meaningless game after all.

After going 13-0, the Saints have lost 2 straight, and have a chance to go into the playoffs riding their only losing streak of the year – and while that’s not the worst thing that could ever happen, you know New Orleans would like to notch out a win to get back on the right track.

When it comes right down to it, I think Mark Brunell knows enough and is good enough to keep the Saints in the game, and when you’re talking about an 8.5 point spread, that’s exactly what you’re looking for. The Saints have been solid all season long, and a Panthers team that also has nothing to play for doesn’t scare me all that much.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions NFL Week 17 Pick

Posted on by

Welcome to absolutely meaningless football, or at least I think it is. It’d be great for the Lions to win this final game, but then again, it might keep Lovie Smith employed if the Bears come out victorious against Detroit’s hapless Lions. So maybe there is something to fight for after all… Hmm…. Something to fight for or not, it’s about time somebody figured out the Bears are bad – only a 3 point favorite in Detroit after beating up on the Vikings- something has to be trying to trick us. But I still have to go with the public here and ride the Bears to victory.

no banners

Chicago might be bad, a lot worse than people expected, but they aren’t Lions’ bad. The books are expecting a big let-down after Monday Night’s offensive explosion against Minnesota, and I agree, there will be some sort of let-down. But a let-down against the Lions still leaves room for some error and some victory. Jay Cutler looked as comfortable as he’s been all season when throwing balls to Devin Aromashadu to win the game last week. Well, his favorite young receiver is back, and his running game will be able to see some success on Sunday as well.
A combination of those things and the reality that this is the Lions, playing in Detroit where they are often at their worst, during a completely lost season – has me going with Da Bears.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions