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Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) Free NFL Pick: Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up.

On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.

That being said, I am taking them here. Why? Well, the Hawks are 2-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-5 against teams with winning records. So they play well against tomato cans (or fellow tomato cans, if you want to go that far) but they certainly struggle against good teams. Where does Detroit fit in? Right. Those two bad teams that Seattle has beaten, Jacksonville and St. Louis, a 69-0 combined score in those two games. Seattle’s defense plays well with a lead, something they should get this week at home.

St. Louis Rams vs Detroit Lions Free NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5) Free NFL Pick: This game should be switched into the Monday Night slot, why you ask? because we deserve to see it, that’s why! St. Louis and Detroit, two of the more mortal teams in the league, and everyone could be on the edge of their seats hoping for a 0-0 tie. My question is this, if no team every scores, can it really be considered a tie, or can we just go ahead and call it two losses? But lets not talk about losses, because everybody wins in a game like this. It’s a shame the Lions already got of the snide this season, or this could be really special. Okay, all jokes aside, I think the Lions are a much better team that the Rams, but that could just be me getting in the way of my eyes. I’ve said for quite some time, since Week 6 last year maybe, that the Rams were the worst team in football. Don’t look now, but I think I’m right. The Lions are favored by more than a field goal, something I never thought would happen this season, and their best player (Calvin Johnson) is once again probably out for the game. But hey, this Lions team is better defensively, they have an offensive line that cares a little bit, and I think they string together their 2nd win of the season, keeping the hapless Rams, well, hapless – and winless too! You can bet that Detroit doesn’t want to be a team’s first win this late in the season, think of how great it would be for the Lions if somebody else went 0-16. If they win here, that chance remains. Go Lions, boo Rams!

Sunday Observations: Week 6 NFL Football

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My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful. You need to know, I have Sunday ticket, Josh is braving the darkness of Alaska and whichever games they show up there, Papa never leaves his dungeon, and Red Red Ryan couldn’t take part in this week’s texting session because his red hair (and female partner) wouldn’t allow him to do so. The bottom line is, we all watch football in different places, so we keep our texting handy to pretend we’re watching the games together. So, Red was out this week but still, Papa, Josh, and I sent texts to and fro. Here’s the Top 15, compiled by yours truly…

Josh Arsenault

1. Percy Harvin is a speed guy that loves to hit people… Watch him block from the slot and it’s easy to see why the Vikings love him.

2. Ray Rice’s game reminds me of MJD…. He and Flacco have a chance to be special for a long time.

3. John Fox makes coaching look hard… Here’s a tip, Foxy: D-Will, D-Will, J-Stew, D-Will, J-Stew, J-Stew, D-Will… Somebody get this guy a Tecmo Bowl playbook.

4. There is nobody in the NFL I enjoy watching lose more than Jay Cutler… Except maybe Al Davis… Here’s hoping Culter winds up with the Raiders at some point.

5. No team is more bi-polar than the Seattle Seahawks… Their two wins were shutouts (28-0 and 41-0) and their four losses have been by an average margin of 15 points. Which one will it be coming off their bye?

Lucky Lester

1. Rummaging through the games I think I’ve watched five offensive plays by the Bills, and I’m pretty damn sure Terrell Owens has three drops. If the average team has 60 offensive plays, TO is on pace to drop 36 balls based on my numbers – that has to be a record.

2. Joshua Cribbs is unreal, but unless he returns 5 kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, the Browns aren’t going to have a chance to win this game.

3. How do nine football games manage to all be on commercial at the same time, and not one has reached half time? On the bright side, the Tampa game is showing their cheerleaders, and I’m pretty sure they are only wearing jerseys – there might be black panties under there, but I’m not sure.

4. The Jaguars must really stink, because Maurice Jones Drew is really freaking good and they still suck.

5. I hate watching Jake Delhomme, he’s like a Ben Stiller movie, I feel embarrassed for the guy. He tries so hard but he just keeps zipping his junk up in his zipper. The guy can dig himself a hole with the best of them.

Papa Weimer

1. I hope Jim Zorn realizes that it’s not the quarterback, it’s him. Jason Campbell is better than Todd Collins, that’s why he’s started over the past 2 seasons. It’s the play calling, the dead end coaching spot, and the general broke down feeling of the Skins franchise.

2. I feel bad for Todd Haley, his offense plays like the last 3 eight grade teams I coached. They jump off-sides like it’s their job, they miss assignments all day long, and they do just enough to give you a glimmer of hope before they rip it away with a holding penalty and two jumps off-sides on back2back2back plays.

3. If you got paid a million dollars to get knocked out, and you got to pick one guy to make sure the job got done right, which player in the league would you choose to rock your world? I got Ray Lewis. (Josh replies, Brian Dawkins) (Lucky replies, Aaron Curry)

4. Hahahaha… The Rams are going to win, the Rams are going to win! Leonard Little, pick 6, the worst team in the league won’t tie the Lions for the worst record ever!

5. The Rams lose. Figures. If the Rams and Bucs gave all their best players to fight for a singular cause, they’d still get beat 12 times a year.

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13): The Packers coming off a bye week preparing for a Lions team that has a list of injured players you couldn’t count using just your fingers (who can count past their fingers these days anyway?) – It’s hard not to be all gung-ho about the Packers chances at winning by a couple touchdowns. But the Lions have been decent in some games this season. They got kicked around by the Saints in Week 1, sure, but they fought and battled tough in their last 4 games, giving the Vikings, Redskins, Bears, and Steelers all they could handle (in fact, they gave the Redskins more than they could handle). You look at the scores, and Pittsburgh was the first time the Lions lost by less than double digits this season, and even that took a late touchdown strike from Daunte Culpepper. But the injuries are mounting, and while I don’t like going against a double digit dog, especially one that plays better on the road, it’s too hard to look past the 4 starting defensive players that are questionable, the best player on their team is also questionable (Calvin Johnson), and their running game hasn’t been good against anybody so far this season. What does that tell me? If I’m leaning one way, I’m taking the Packers coming off a bye week.

The NFL Mock Draft (New Mock!!!)

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Alright, news and notes are flying around, and the draft is a month away. I can’t wait. My newest mock draft takes into account the most recent happenings in the NFL (as of March 24th), how I rank the players, as well as team needs, team histories, and the dirt on what’s been going down during workouts and scout evaluations. Dream big!!!

1. Detroit Lions- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: The Lions probably have to take Stafford here. I don’t like the pick for them, I think they can wait to get a quarterback next year, or even later in the draft, but it is what it is, and they have no future stud quarterback and they are a floundering franchise, and they have the top pick in a class that has no clear number one – so they’ll do what almost any other franchise would do in that situation and grab the big upside quarterback, and they’ll likely find themselves right back in this spot next year with a quarterback that they’re still not sure about, but maybe there will be a number one that seperates himself, and hopefully for the Lions that isn’t Sam Bradford. As much as I hate to admit it, Stafford is probably the pick the Lions will choose. Seeing as though the Lions will likely have a shot at a solid OT with the 20th pick, because it’s a deep position, they probably have to make this move. Stafford teaming up with Britton or Oher  makes more sense than Jason Smith and Josh Freeman, in my opinion. I would take Jason Smith here and a stud defensive prospect at #20, but I’m a front line guy – I don’t build teams the Lion way…

2. St. Louis Rams- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: I thought the Rams would make a pick like this even before they released one of the better offensive tackles of all time, Orlando Pace. With the big OT gone, they’ll take their pick of the deepest position in the draft. Jason Smith looks to have the most upside and the best motor, a fantastic combo for your QB protector to possess, and thus he’ll likely go here.

3. Kansas City Chiefs- Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest: The Chiefs need to get better in more than a few places, and they’ll likely consider taking offensive line help here. But, with a defensive difference maker available for one of the league’s worst defenses, a guy that many consider the best overall talent in the draft, Curry seems to be the best fit at #3.

4. Seattle Seahawks- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: Seeing that the defensive tackle spot wasn’t very deep, and probably deciding that they didn’t want to throw their 4th pick at B.J. Raji, the Hawks went ahead and traded one of their playmaking linebackers to pick up a solid young DT that has upside. That leaves the Hawks in a great place to get better where they need help the most. They’ll take either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe. I have the Chiefs grabbing Curry at 3, which will get Monroe, the most polished and consistent left tackle in the draft, a plane ticket to Sea-Tac.

5. Cleveland Browns- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: First of all, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mangini and the Browns make a move that changes their need and or pick selection heading into the draft. Right now lets assume that all the players on the Browns roster stay in Cleveland. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brian Orakpo go here. Mangini took a chance on a hybrid backer last year, and Orakpo is a much better player with more “now” skills than Vernon Gholston was, and he has the same sack happy upside as last year’s top pick.

6. Cincinnati Bengals- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: Cincinnati needs defensive help. I don’t think they could make a better pick at this point than Raji. B.J. is a beast and has excelled in key off-season areas such as the senior bowl and the combine. Put that performance together with his hard work at Boston College and you have a great prospect at one of the draft’s weakest positions. This might be too smart of a pick for the Bengals.

7. Oakland Raiders- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Not even God knows what Al Davis and the Raiders will do now. Some like to think that Michael Crabtree will be the guy, and while he certainly is the most popular and well known prospect here, I’m not so sure he’s even Al’s favorite WR prospect. That might go to lightning quick Maclin or physical freak Darrius Heyward-Bey. That being said, I think the Raiders stun the masses, skip over elite skill players, and grab Andre Smith. The big tackle has seen his stock tumble a bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he finds his way into the Top 10. The Raiders don’t seem to care much about character, and personality aside, Smith is one of the most talented big men in this draft.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: The Jaguars should count their blessings if Crabtree falls to them. It’s not often that you get an elite offensive NFL talent in a position you desperately need. There are a few people with their heads slammed directly up their hoo-hoo’s that think the Jaguars need to go quarterback here. Because Garrard is 31. Please. This isn’t running back here, and it’s not like Garrard failed last season without any real receiving threats and no offensive line. The Jaguars could take Oher or maybe even an awe inspiring selection of Rey Maualuga, amongst many others, but Crabtree is everything they’ve asked for since Jimmy Smith got caught in the life cycle aging process.

9. Green Bay Packers- Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State: The Packers seem like they’re looking for more of a “now” player than Aaron Maybin might be, but I really like the Penn State product. The Packers might be choosing between him and Everett Brown, and while I like Brown’s athleticism, I happen to think Maybin’s upside is greater. Both are young players that need some time. but Maybin could be special and the Packers should go that direction.

10. San Francisco 49ers- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California: If the Raiders go dumb and take the most impressive 40-time or just find better value in another positioin, that might leave Andre Smith here for Iron Mike and the 49ers. If that’s the case, I don’t see them passing up on the big OT even though his “work ethic” might not roll with the former Bears great. However, Mike can motivate a mole to sunbathe, so one of the most talented OTs in the draft at pick 10 would make sense. Since he’s not here in my mock, that leaves two choices I see the 49ers choosing between – Mark Sanchez and Jeremy Maclin. I like Shaun Hill, but he’s not a future pro-bowler by any means. Sanchez has the leadership and work ethic that Mike Singletary and his staff would love. Maclin would give the team a nice gamebreaking option on a team that relies too heavily on Frank Gore. For a team building for the future, Sanchez gets the nod. All in all, there might be a couple teams looking to shoot up to grab Sanchez. If there’s an option out there, the 49ers could pass on the SC product.

11. Buffalo Bills- Everette Brown, DE, Florida State: If there’s any team that needs defensive playmakers as much as the Detroit Lions, it’s the Buffalo Bills. Everett Brown might be a bit of a tweener, but he’s a physical freak of an athlete that does everything he can to put pressure on opposing backfields. Brown could play OLB for the Bills, but could immediately give them pass rush help on passing downs.

12. Denver Broncos- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: If there’s a dying breed of player it’s the DE in a 3-4 scheme. With pass rushers getting faster and more athletic, the big space eating ends that do it all have almost disappeared. Jackson is the only real player out there with a first round grade. The Broncos need a lot of help, mostly on the defensive side of the ball, and Jackson looks like a great fit to start his career with first year coach Josh McDaniels in Denver.

13. Washington Redskins- Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi: The Redskins could stun a few folks here by grabbing Jeremy Maclin. Maclin would be a nice number 2 option, the one they were looking for when they spent two first day picks on receivers that disappointed last year. He would allow Randel-El to work in the slot where he’s more effective, and relieve some deep help on Santana Moss. However, I think the Redskins give their young receivers another year to establish themselves and take a chance on an elite offensive tackle prospect in Michael Oher. They need help protecting the quarterback, if you watched them in the 2nd half of 2008, that fact is obvious. Oher might have moments where he shows his youth, but those team with moments of greatness.

14. New Orleans Saints- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: If the Saints draft a running back here, you can’t even begin to imagine the failing grade I’ll give them on draft day. They have a great pass catching back in Reggie Bush, one they spend a ton of money on. They also have an even better back in Pierre Thomas, one they don’t seem to like much despite his elite production when given a chance. Beanie Wells is still on the board, but if they know what’s good for them, the Saints will leave him there. Maclin is also available, and you never know what Payton will trick his GM into doing, but Jeremy should stay on the board as well. This team needs to take a chance on defense, and get their offensive help later in the draft. Brain Cushing, Peria Jerry, or Michael Jenkins are three options I like here, with Jenkins being the best for the Saints. He may not have timed out well in the 40, but he has great ability to help a defense that stinks at just about everything.

15. Houston Texans- Brian Cushing, OLB, Southern California: Could the Texans draft Jeremy Maclin? A kid whose gamebreaking ability projected higher than this pick in the draft? The Texans have solid offensive talent, and they probably don’t “need” Maclin, but what a tandem that could be… Still, that’s my fantasy hopes busting into my real football knowledge, and that’s very unlikely to happen. What else is unlikely to happen? The Texans taking a running back this high, so those who expect Beanie or Knowshon to be a Texan, think again. I think the Texans could improve if they got help at defensive end, and maybe outside linebaker (though I do like Xavier Adibi and his future with the club). Brian Cushing could be an immediate impact guy, a linebacker that is effective on all downs – something that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Cushing is a bit of a reach here, but he fits. A freak like Michael Johnson could really benefit from all the attention Super Mario gets, but he’s even more of a reach because of his inconsistency. I think Cushing fits the bill here.

16. San Diego Chargers- Rey Maualuga, ILB, Southern California: What a difference a year makes. The Chargers came into the ’08 draft with the “pick the best player, we don’t have any huge needs” thing going for them, and everyone thought they’d be a Super Bowl contender. As it turned out, they struggled like a fish out of water just to make the playoffs, but once they got there it looked like they belonged. But the off season hasn’t done much to secure the make-up of this team. Merriman is expected to be back after missing most of the ’08 season, and LT fixed his contract which allowed him to stay. Darren Sproles looks to get more touches in 2009, but the Chargers could still use some help making holes for their two headed running back monster. With LT back, I don’t think the Chargers will waste an early pick on a running back, no need to spend another 6 million on the RB position. Vincent Jackson’s immergence, Antonio Gates greatness, and Chris Chambers’ consistency seems to keep any focus off the skill positions in Round 1, even though it’s not all about needs. If Jenkins falls this far, they have to grab the corner/safety. He’s too solid to pass up for a team that ranked 31st in pass defense and I think he could play anywhere for them. They could take a shot on a guy like Vontae Davis but I wouldn’t go there.  I think they end up taking Rey Maualuga. The USC product is a tackling machine, and they could really use a sure thing in the middle of their defense.

17. New York Jets- Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State: Coles absence and Maclin falling right into their laps gives the Jets a great option here. They could go for Freeman if they really think he could be the long term answer, but Maclin is a big time game breaker that can do things most players can’t. He’d help the field position game and allow the Jets to use Cotchery’s skill set more appropriately. At 17th overall, this kid might be a steal for the Jets. However, the I have this feeling that the Jets might grab the first running back in the draft. Thomas Jones is talking hold out, and he wants a raise (and probably deserves one, despite his age), so they could cut him loose and draft a back with all the talent in the world. This would allow them to use Leon Washington more, a guy that has proven his worth when he gets the touches. Thunder and Lightening? Lots of ways the Jets could draft under their new staff – but I’m throwing my wild card out there with the OSU big back.

18. Chicago Bears- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Heyward-Bey is a physical specimen, no doubt about that – but there’s not doubt in my mind that Maclin is the better receiver. However, in Chicago this big bad fast son of a gun might be the perfect fit. He and Devin Hester could prove to be a tough combo to cover. If Mark Sanchez is still here, I think the Bears go with the USC product. As is, they are looking for more explosion and while Bey might not be the immediate answer, his upside and elite numbers likely get him the nod in Chicago.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: More than a few people have Josh Freeman going here. I don’t think that’s the best move for the Bucs, especially with an elite prospect falling into their laps. Antonio Bryant did big things in Tampa last season, but Maclin would only assure the explosive nature of the offensive weapons being gathered in Tampa. This team has a solid offensive line, so nice running options, and will have a nice plethora of receiver options with Kellen Winslow, Bryant, and Maclin. Probably not a need, but the best prospect on the board is Maclin if the speedster falls this far.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas)- Jerry Peria, DT, Mississippi: The Lions traded a promising young defensive tackle to grab perrenial Pro-Bowl OLB Julian Peterson from the Hawks. Getting this quick underrated tackle would be a great bargain because after Peria the talent level at the position really drops off. The Lions need lots of options, no doubt about that, they could go with a project like Robert Ayers, OT Eben Britton, or if they decided to go with Jason Smith in Round 1, Josh Freeman maybe? Like I said, there will be a lot decided by draft day, but as is Peria would be a nice pick for the Lions here, especially with the strengths of the draft the way they are.

21. Philadelphia Eagles- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: I see Moreno as a Maurice Jones-Drew type runner, a smaller back that runs with elite physicality and power. A guy that is super quick and not afraid of contact at the same time. Moreno has all the athleticism to be a run and catch player for the Eagles, and while Philly has always looked for a big back to compliment Westy, they may walk right into the Brian Westbrook of the future. They don’t run exactly the same, but I do think Moreno has a high ceiling. Now, it’s unlike the Eagles to grab a running back in the 1st round, they are usually more interested in line moves, but even if the don’t go with Moreno here, I don’t think they’ll go for the line. Robert Ayers is an interesting option, but Brandon Pettigrew is my wild card. The big TE does it all, and with L.J. Smith moving teams (and having been hurt for more than a few games over the last couple years), Brandon could be a nice option for McNabb in the passing game. Still, I like Moreno’s fit in Philly.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: What a threat Percy could be as a change of pace guy with Adrian Peterson and a receiver both out of the back field, out wide, and in the slot. Harvin has freakish moves in the open field, and definitely will be a difference maker when healthy in the NFL. Do the Vikings need Harvin? I’m not so sure, but the fact that they went after T.J. Houshmanzadeh makes me think this is a possibility. Harvin and AP would form a disturbing duo for opposing defenses, and that’s something the Vikings could look forward too. And instead of stealing carries from AP, both could spend every down on the field together, with Harvin split out wide.

23. New England Patriots- Clay Matthews, OLB, Southern California: The Patriots need an outside linebacker, definitely, but there’s more than a few and though Matthews has been climbing the board like slick bottle rocket, I’m not sure that he’ll be a lock for New England at 23. It wouldn’t stun me for a second to see the Pats grab a guy like Brandon Pettigrew. He’s a very good blocker with very good hands and a great frame for red-zone activities and physical first downs through the air. He may not fit everything they do offensively, but a football player that does everything well seems like something they dig. As is, I think they go for Clay Mathews here because of his similar skill set. He does things well. He has a chance to start from Day 1 in New England, and this is a team ready to win now.

24. Atlanta Falcons- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Lots of players to choose from for the talented yet youthful Falcons. I think Brandon would be a great fit for a run-first team that keeps their tight end blocking most of the time, but would love to have a useful option to sneak out into passing situations when needed. Pettigrew doesn’t run with the speed of an elite pass catcher, but he’s athletic, has great hands, and is one hell of a blocker. And I don’t think the Falcons would trade the third one for great speed, not the way they run their offense. That being said, Pettigrew is a TE, and I don’t know if the Falcons have enough talent to go tight end in Round 1. He may be more of a sure thing, but the Falcons need defensive help something fierce. They lost two starting linebackers and a starting corner on a defense that wasn’t elite to start with. So lets say they can’t afford to go TE here. Assuming that, Vontae Davis is on the board, and despite his knocks, he’s one of the more physically talented corners in the draft. That’s enough to take him at 24, something the Falcons might very well do.

25. Miami Dolphins- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: I think Michael Johnson has all the ability to be one of the best pass rushers in this draft. He just needs to find the motivation to do so. Being a top 10 talent and dropping to 25 might be enough. Spending time on a Bill Parcells run team might be even more help. This kid is a freak, and has the athletic ability to even be considered as an OLB in the 3-4, at least I think so. However, I don’t know if a questionable motor guy is Parcells’ cup of tea, and thus he will probably get passed up again here. They could also go for Vontae Davis, as they certainly could use help in that secondary. However, I think they’ll take Robert Ayers. This kid was solid on a bad defense last season. He practices and plays well, and despite his mediocre times at the combine, has proven to be effective on the football field, using his skills and a solid motor. More Parcells style maybe? I think so.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona: This kid is solid, and this offensive line needs to get some young help (at least for the future) for franchise quarterback Joe Flacco. Britton has great upside and with a monster frame and great quickness, he might be a steal at 26. I’m not sure that he’ll last this long with the importance of tackles and the way they seem to be screaming off the board over the past few years, but if he does go this far, the Ravens would be smart to grab him. Other options could be Vontae Davis, or maybe they go for an even bigger project with more freak upside like Michael Johnson – and use that strong willed defense to turn him into a rush linebacker sack artist. As is, I like Britton going here.

27. Indianapolis Colts- Evander “ZIGGY” Hood, DT, Missouri: Weird, the Colts are hurting for defensive line help on the interior. Hood is dancing up the draft charts, and for good reason. He’s very athletic and quick for a defensive tackle, and would fit well in the Colts system, if they indeed stay in that system. Some have said they’re looking for more size up front, but Hood is the best available, and the Colts could definitely use him.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina)- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: Without a tackle to grab here, I wonder if the Eagles will even risk it by taking Moreno with their first of two picks in Round 1. That being said, I’m not going back on my picks because of the way the draft panned out, and the Eagles can go a couple different directions with this pick. They could grab Hakeem Nicks right here. They have a solid young receiver in DeSean Jackson, but Nicks would look nice on the opposite side. Still, they need help on the offensive line, even though they got better by signing Shawn Andrews’ big brother, Stacy, from the Bengals, they could still use a guy like Max Unger for the future. But I’m going with Pettigrew here because the kid is a stud, they just lost an injury plagued L.J. Smith to Baltimore, and Pettigrew not only helps out with the passing game but in the run game as well. He’s more than the 28th best player in this draft. I expect him to help from Day 1.

29. New York Giants- James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: I really like Hakeem Nicks, and while I don’t think the Giants need to run and pick up the best receiver available because of Plax’s situation, I think Nicks is a nice receiver. Receiver galore in Round 1 though? I’m not so sure. Plus, as much as I like Nicks, the guy put on 15 pounds between the combine and pro day workouts, and is up over 225. Don’t be a pig for 30 days, help your draft stock, I mean come on man…. I think they could find a lot to like at the position in Round 2, and should instead build up their line in the draft with a guy like Max Unger or Alex Mack or maybe linebacker. And trading down is always an option, especially if they like a couple receivers here and don’t see need to pick another one in Round 1. All that being thrown about, I think the Giants see something they like in James Laurinaitis and go get him. He’s not great at shedding blocks, but D-line has been a power for the Giants, and James should do good things behind that group.

30. Tennessee Titans- Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech: Could they go receiver here? Yes, they could try once again to snag a competent starting receiver, but it’s a strong position with many players to be had – why would they pass on a chance at the second coming of Javon Kearse (during his freak days of course)? Michael Johnson has that freakish athleticism and size and the Titans can grab the kid and have him learn from some team greats. He won’t be needed on every down right away, and he has upside to burn. I think they skip taking the 5th 1st round receiver and go for upside on the D-line. I like to wait on receivers, so I’m expecting the Titans to pick without fantasy hopes on the line here. Hakeem Nicks might be the guy, but in a weighted coin flip I’m going with Johnson.

31. Arizona Cardinals- Alex Mack, C, California: LeSean McCoy is my favorite here because I love the running back’s vision and acceleration. However, I think adding a great young center, a guy that can play a couple positions and is basically a sure fire solid starter, seems like the right move. They have a young back they like in Tim Hightower, so getting him help up front might be a better move that tossing a first round pick at another back. Later in the draft is the time to add depth, not Round 1. Another option would be Hakeem Nicks if Boldin is traded. I think ‘Quan will sign a deal with the Cards, however, so that’s “a moo point, like a cow’s opinion, nobody cares”. So I’m skipping over my favorite back in the class for one of my favorite O-line leaders.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers- Max Unger, C/G, Oregon: The Steelers will have options. But if the draft unfolds like this, I don’t think they spend another high pick on a receiver, they let Hakeem Nicks fall dreamily into the lap of another suiter in Round 2. They take Max Unger because the Steelers could use O-line depth, and they are a smart franchise. Unger is a beast, he can play multiple positions, and he’s always been the leading force of great Oregon rushing attacks. Last pick in Round 1 should be a great one for the Steel-City.

Best Available After Round 1:

1. Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

3. Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

4. Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut

5. Ron Brace, DT, Boston College

6. Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

7. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

8. Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma

9. Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan

10. Conner Barwin, DE, Cincinnati

11. Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut

12. Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia

13. Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois

14. Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State

15. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina

16. Cornelius Ingram, TE, Florida

17. Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss

18. Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa

19. Rashad Johnson, S, Alabama

20. Sean Smith, CB, Utah

21. Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State

22. Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri

23. Gerald Cadogan, OT, Penn State

24. Patrick Chung, SS, Oregon

25. Mike Thomas, WR, Arizona

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 7

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A couple interesting ones questioning many things from fantasy gods to the ghost of Barry Sanders…  A Halloween special two weeks early? You could say that maybe.

Red Red Ryan from Walla Walla texts me this, “Papa Weimer, I’m in trouble. I think I might have done something to disappoint the fantasy Gods, or whomever it is that decides the balance of such things. You see, last week I lost in both of my fantasy leagues – but here’s the real trick, they were both ties and I dropped the soap with my overtime players in both situations. Two ties, two losses, same week – that is black magic if I’ve ever seen it. Is there anything you suggest that I should do? I’m really looking for some help here. Thanks in advance…”

Red Red Ryan, I think I got what you need. From the photo I’ve seen of you I noticed that you do indeed have red hair. Like America’s fortune 100 (in which not a single one is married to or dating a red head), Fantasy Gods seem to have a thing against red hair. Look at Carson Palmer for example – his hair has become more and more red over the years, and he’s still stuck in Cincinnati with a guy that changed his name to a false spanish number, on a losing team, and now he’s having shoulder and confidence issues – and he was probably the best red head ever, at anything, in the whole world. I say die your hair black or brown or even lime green – all three could be good looks for you. Die your hair guy is usually a joke to me, but i this case I’ll make an exception. Two ties with overtime losses, that does sound pretty amazing, and you also tell me that you never win playoff games in fantasy, that’s surely another fantasy god curse.  Here’s the deal with fantasy gods though, they aren’t really gods, they are a three man group including Mike “Splinter” Shannahan, Shannon “Horse Face” Sharpe, and Warren “Many” Moon(s). If there’s anyway you can please one of those unholy beasts then you can indeed get the fantasy fortune back on your side. My suggestion, don’t say things like “Why can’t you just give the ball to Tatum Bell, he has a great Yards Per Carry average!??!!” or “Shut your big dumb mouth Shannon, you played with freaking John Elway for God’s sake, you should be the all time touchdown leader you loud ass,” and definitely not, “Warren, thanks for your run and shoot input, but you are one bad female encounter away from a new version of your offense, the Shoot and Run.” None of these things will make them happy, and losing on ties will forever be your calling card. If that’s too much for you to handle, here’s the short version… Die hair, slap an old school #1 Huskies uni on, and watch the Ninja Turtles first movie – onward march young red bag….

Digs from Detroit says, “Okay, listen here – I know there’s that curse of the bambino and the Cubs curse, but I’m here in Detroit telling you that we have a curse of Barry Sanders – it’s killing me. I thought Matt Millen was the problem, but it may be more than that. I might trade Michael Turner for Barry Sanders and just see what happens, maybe the curse will be lifted? Let me know, and I’ll pull the trigger. We haven’t had a good runner since then, and our team sucks balls – give me a glimmer of hope old man.”

Ah, the curse of Bewwy – yes indeed. I wouldn’t trade anyone to get him, but for fantasy luck I like to take Sanders with my last pick in any league that allows more than 16 roster spots – he seems to sprinkle good ju-ju on my running back selections, and even thought the chances of him being fantasy relevant are just a slight bit higher than Adam “Frogger” Jones staying out of trouble, the good he does as a mentor has been priceless. I always have good running back luck. Say this year for example, after Round 5 I got Matt Forte. Then in Rounds 10 and 15 I got Chris Johnson and then Steve Slaton. Add that to my 3rd overall pick of Marion Barber and my 3rd round pick of Michael Turner and you’ll see why I’m dominating my 3 RB PPR league. But that’s just fantasy wise, and it looks like you are trying to stop something bigger, something more in the reality scheme than the fantasy realm. Hmmm… I’ve got it. Go back in time and get the Lions to not make so many draft mistakes. I’m not throwing Gosder Cherilus under Matt Millen’s bus quite yet, give him time first, but lets go back here… 2007 – Calvin Johnson is very good, no doubt, but Joe Thomas is one of the best Tackles in the league – ask any football knowledgeable guy and he’ll tell you the difference between an elite receiver and an elite tackle. 2006 – Ernie Sims is good (a little small and prone to nicks), but Jay Cutler is a stud that could have been had. That would have meant the Lions taking a guy that wasn’t a college all world player though, which is rare for them in Round 1. 2005 – Mike Williams over (well anybody) but great players that soon followed… DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown – each was taken in order directly after the Lions ignored all the good scouts directions. Stupid. 2004 – Roy Williams is a quality receiver with big time big play potential, but once again the Lions are putting a lot of their money into receiver – look at that historically, not a great move. Who could they have had? Oh, I don’t know, Ben Roethlisberger, Tommie Harris, Shawn Andrews, Vince Wilfork, Steven Jackson, Bob Sanders – but Ben and Tommie and Shawn and Vince would be 4 great options to have drafted. I can play this game all day, but any team that blows high picks on mediocre players will become terrible. In ’03 it was Charles Rogers over Andre Johnson, Terrence Newman, Jordan Gross, Terrell Suggs, Marcus Trufant, Troy Polamalu – the list goes on and one. Some teams make mistakes, no doubt, it’s just that Detroit does it every year. They error on the side of fantasy numbers. You can’t do that in real football. Millen’s gone, there’s my glimmer – also, there’s lots of mistakes to see where to go next. If they can learn from them, your Lions will be alright. For now, keep Mike Turner my man – he’s hope for your chances.

NFL Free Picks Review: Pre-Season Week 2

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So, I’m no longer perfect, but I still took 2 of 3 this weekend, bringing my record to 5-1-1 to start the pre-season. Here’s how the dingo went down under.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

“Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing.” This game finished at 36. That’s not so bad, except for the fact that I am now just 2 points away from being undefeated during the pre-season. That’s because I ended up winning the last two games of the weekend. There was one play in this game that basically sealed my fate. The Broncos were up 14-10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter when they put together a drive and managed to get down to the 1 with 6 minutes and change left to play. A touchdown brings the total to 31 and my cover is well within range headed into the 4th quarter. Instead, the Broncos took the safe play and kicked a field goal to go up 10. Thats where the total got so far away. So, not only was I 2 points away from winning this total, but I was a single yard away from it. Damn numbers! I guess everyone needs to lose sometime – I just thought this was my Patriot-undefeated-year. So much for that; I couldn’t even make it out of the pre-season.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

As I write this the Bucs are up 27-10 and just breaking into New England territory with about 5 minutes to play. Yes, its sport and anything can happen but I’m willing to chalk this one up as a win. The Patriots still don’t care to win pre-season games and will settle for winning the majority (or all) of games that count. Weird. Still, the Bucs looked good behind solid quarterbacking (19-25 as a group right now) and effective running. The Bucs have a good offensive line and an even better O-line coach. They have multiple runners with talent, and a bunch of receivers trying to make this team. They are a good bet in the pre-season, as shown once again. I win again!

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

“The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest.. …even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend.” What do you know? The Lions take one from a Bengals team that looked uninterested. Carson Palmer looked off again and not even Chris Perry could impress me. On the other hand, Jon Kitna had a flawless drive and Drew Stanton had a couple nice throws while Calvin Johnson looked like the awesome prospect he is. Marinelli likes to win, even in the pre-season. Remember that.

2-1 this week! 5-1-1 on the pre-season! Check in to see if I can’t keep it going next week.