2009 NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins

These are my over/under predictions for the NFL Season. I have every team listed in alphabetical order, with their over/under line and the total predicted wins. Nobody can win them all – unless of course you’re those bunch of Dolphins that sold their soul so they could get interviewed midway through the season and claim they were the best ever. I hate that ish. All my lines come from TheGreek.com.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (Under 8.5 wins -130) (7): Every team in the AFC South is tough, and could easily take down the Cardinals. The NFC South is getting tougher as well, despite St. Louis’s presence in the division. Arizona is not as deep this season, and come in overrated in 2009. They are a couple injuries away from a very tough post-Super Bowl hangover.
  2. Atlanta Falcons (Over 8.5 wins +110) (10): The Falcons face a tough challenge, getting back to the playoffs out of the NFC South. These teams rotate like a damn merry-go-round from year to year, and it’s a pretty stacked division as well. Any one of these teams could turn in a solid year, but I don’t expect much out of Tampa. The Panthers rarely put out 2 good seasons in a row, and while the Falcons may have a tougher schedule, last year’s young team has enough to get back to the playoffs in 2009.
  3. Baltimore Ravens (Over 8.5 wins -150) (10): KC, Denver, and Oakland. There’s three. Cleveland twice.. Four, Five. At the very least, one against Cincinnati. Six. Detroit. Seven. So they need to win two more games over the course of the season to get over – sure, I’ll take that bet. The Bengals should be better, and build off a solid defensive performance late last season, but the Ravens are still a top 2 team in the AFC North.
  4. Buffalo Bills (Under 7.5 wins +110) (7): The Buffalo Bills lost a great offensive lineman, which just happened to be one of their strengths last season. They won 7 games in 2008, against powerhouses like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos. With the NFC South on their schedule in 2009, the wins shouldn’t pile up quite so easily. TO is a big talent, but I’m not sure he tightens up that defense. I’ll go under.
  5. Carolina Panthers (Under 8.5 -145) (8): The Panthers ran the ball all over everyone last season, and they still played a heap of close games. Using the reasoning that they never play lights out two seasons in a row is stupid, and I won’t do that, I’ll just write about how that is usually the case. That is usually the case. There. The AFC South “NEVER” goes to the same team two seasons in a row. They lost some defense, might have trouble stopping the run, and have some luck about to evaporate as well.
  6. Chicago Bears (Under 8.5 +135) (7): Jay Cutler gets them more wins? Maybe. But this team will really rely on stopping the pass and Tommie Harris’s health. I don’t think they will be able to stop the pass, and Harris has yet to look like the guy that couldn’t be blocked rushing the interior a couple seasons ago. Urlacher is getting old, and while Briggs is still in his prime, he can’t tackle them all. Packers and Vikings get better in 2009, Detroit too, this division just got tougher.
  7. Cincinnati Bengals (Over 7.5 wins +125) (8): I’m not buying into the Bengals getting over .500 but their schedule looks easier than most, and I’m predicting a finish right on the even mark. The Ravens and Steelers are very tough defensively, and will likely eat the Bengals alive, but Cinci gets to play Cleveland twice. That’s nice. This defense is getting better, and while this is actually a tough pick for me, the Bengals’ schedule is in their favor, and I am predicting a late push gets them to even or better.
  8. Cleveland Browns (Under 6.5 wins -130) (5): The Browns stink. They won 10 fluke games in 2007, just enough to get their head guy some more money from the Brownies, and now they have Man-jina trying to run the brown gongshow circus in Cleveland. They have no gimmy wins this season – none, they aren’t good enough and no college teams are on their schedule. Their best offensive weapon drops touchdowns, and other passes to boot. They will likely be starting a first year starter at QB, and their running back is 29 going on 40. Defensively they have 3 or 4 good players, but no depth at all. I say they get lucky and win 5. Sam Bradford, step right up!
  9. Dallas Cowboys (Under 9.5 wins -130) (8): Call me crazy, but I think the Cowboys struggle in this division. They lost a great weapon when TO was let go. They have a nice running back trio, but an aging offensive line might cause trouble when injuries hit. A couple of their “easy games” happen to be in very tough places to play (Denver and KC), and the NFC East is probably the toughest division in football. I think the Eagles (even after losing some key defenders) and Giants (even with Eli at QB) are two very tough teams and the Redskins are no slouch, either. Drawing the NFC South makes it that much tougher, so tough that a 10 win season seems less likely than .500 – with a game to play with, I’ll take the under.
  10. Denver Broncos (Under 6.5 wins -115) (5): No love for Josh McDaniels and his Broncos I guess. But remember, this team still plays against the Chiefs and Raiders, two improving squads? maybe, but still KC and Oakland… Lets just say they get 3 of those 5 contests. They still need 4 more wins to beat this under. Look at their schedule, they draw one of the toughest stretches in football going up against Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, SD again, and the Giants… Sounds like 8 losses to me. Lets say they get one of those games. They still need 3 wins against a “rest of schedule” that shows the Eagles and Colts. I wanted to say over here, really I did, but that middle of the year looks like a Korean class learning how to pronounce their toughest letter to master.
  11. Detroit Lions (Over 4.5 wins -135) (7): This one is pretty easy in my opinion. Sure, the Lions lost them all last year, but they aren’t a talentless bunch – not by any means. Their new staff brought in some solid schemes, and I expect nice things from this offense if Daunte gets to run the show. Defensively, they are still challenged, but they have made some moves that should allow them come together. There are wins to be had on that schedule, and being the “worst team ever” has to motivate a bunch of guys that get paid to be competitive. Laugh now, but the Lions improve in 2009.

Come back later in the week for my next 2009 NFL Regular Season Predictions segment. I’ll follow the alphabet one more time, going from Green Bay all the way to New York…

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