Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide: BCS National Championship Pick

As I said in my newsletter, Alabama is the best college football team in the Nation. Defensively they look superior to every other team, and offensively they often manhandle opposing defenses, control the clock, and have shown the ability to beat the snot out of opponents as well as win ugly. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win this game.

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A month of no games can play tricks on a team, and that’s one of the reasons why this ridiculous bowl stuff makes everything a little more interesting. For an entire month, the Texas Longhorns have been hearing people talk about how they don’t have a chance against the best team in the SEC. They’ve heard about Heisman winner Mark Ingram and the powerful running game. They’ve heard about the defense with a handful of future NFL players. Yes, for one month, they’ve got to hear all the reasons they should lose. And it’s amazing how motivational that can be for a team that didn’t lose a single game all season long.

But despite that motivational push, it’s tough for me to go against Alabama here. Bowl games are special, and you never know, but the Tide look too tough in areas I think are most important. They are as tough as nails up front of offense and all over the field defensively. They allowed just 11 points per game, allowed 7 or less in 6 contests, and held normally powerful offenses like Arkansas, Florida, and Ole Miss to fewer than two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide are certainly battle tested. They easily ran throw what many people thought was the very best team in the Nation when they blistered Florida 32-13 in the SEC Championship game.

Texas struggled down the stretch, barely beating Texas A&M in a game where the Longhorns allowed 39 points (nearly twice as much as the Crimson Tide ever allowed in a single game this season) and needed a long last second field goal to beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. Anything can happen in Bowl games, but if both these teams play to their potential, I think the Tide win easily. So I’ll take Alabama to cover the spread.

Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)

BCS National Championship Preview: Wronging a Right

Before I get started on my frustrated rant that ends up with me crushing my own soul by suggesting these idiots actually got it right, here’s a list of the 10 schools that will be enjoying BCS Bowl money this coming New Year, and the match-ups in their selected Bowls. I’ll be doing free picks, write-ups for each game later in the month:

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BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Fiesta Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Boise State Broncos

Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

First and foremost, lets get the obvious out of the way: there is now way in hell anything without a playoff could ever really be called a “Championship”. If the Yankees never had to play the Red Sox, or if they didn’t have to play the National League, it would be pretty damn hard to call them the National Champions or even better yet, the “World Champions”, now wouldn’t it? Pitting the two “top rated” teams against each other,  based on an absurd ranking system that relies almost completely on coaches that don’t even vote, and that are supposed to vote a certain way based on their conference loyalties, in a system that brings into account “PRE-SEASON Rankings”, seems like an interesting way to crown a champ to me.

But like I said, that is obvious, and since this fine country is almost completely money driven, it makes sense that colleges would keep selling the souls of their athletes for as much cash as possible, and keep this “clever” bowl system going for as long as possible. Here’s to you Mr. Obama – it may not be high on your list, but I’ll be impatiently hoping for your mark on the college game. So we’ll just agree to agree here, it is impossible to do teams’ justice in this format, especially when their are multiple undefeated teams. IMPOSSIBLE.

Now lets get into these match-ups and how they are absolutely right in the worst way. I personally would have matched up TCU and Florida, Cincinnati and Boise State – and lets be honest, I could careless about the other match-ups right now, because matching TCU, Cincinnati, or Boise State up with Georgia Tech or Iowa wouldn’t show anybody anything. And the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl and it’s looking like it always will be despite how despicable the Big 10 becomes. I’m willing to accept that, and think Ohio State and Oregon will be a fun match-up. But I have good reason for changing the match-ups around a little.

My problem with the TCU vs. Boise State match-up is that it won’t prove anything except who is the best “small college” school in the country. But for arguments sake, instead of calling it “Small College”, lets go with “Can’t Possibly Win a National Championship College” – because that better describes the them and their situation. If you put Boise State or TCU up against Florida, and the other up against Cincinnati – then you would have two great “CPWaNCC’s” against two bigger and more distinguished schools (though the Big East has almost as little respect as the “small conferences”). That would give the small colleges a chance to prove themselves against top competition, and it would, maybe in the future, give them more respect with voters. The problem with a match-up like this is that it would have a chance of doing exactly what I suggested, making the “other” colleges gain some respect, and thus giving them a chance at the National Championship. Oh, you don’t think that’s a problem? Too bad for us, because “the Man” does.

Unfortunately for me, they probably got the match-ups right on the dot, based solely on the quality of teams. BYU and TCU have proven to me that they are 2 of the top 4 teams in the Nation, and if they can’t play for the National Championship, that means that, in my book, they are the next two best teams and thus should play each other. Cincinnati is very good, but I believe they are 2nd to both of the colleges that can’t possibly win a national championship. Florida might be the best team in the Nation, but laid an egg last week, getting absolutely handled by Alabama, thus losing their chances for a Top spot. I don’t think Texas is as good people give them credit for, but being a “Big Conference” school, and undefeated, will put them in the Big game, and it’s hard to argue with that.

The biggest problem with this is the match-ups are right. Football-wise, talent-wise, they are probably all right. It’s terrible that BYU and TCU are proving their worth against each other, an impossible task considering the only thing they could possibly do to prove their ability would be to oust a top ranked “Big College” team. But it’s probably right. I would rank them 2 and 3, (ahead of Texas), based on what I’ve seen from all three teams this year – so they are the next best teams, and that’s what a Bowl should be looking for. But give them a chance to fight for the small schools, come on. It may be the right match-up (Kudos to “them” for getting something right), but it’s wrong on every other level, and gives two of the best teams in the country almost nothing to gain with a win in January.

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost two straight to the Florida Gators, but that’s where the gambling numbers stop favoring Florida. Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS against the Gators in the last 8 games. Alabama has won 3 of their last 5 over Florida, and in all 3 of those games they were underdogs. This is the smallest spread either team have dealt with all year long. Neither has been an underdog yet this year. Alabama was actually up late in the Florida Game last year, but the Gators scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to walk away with the SEC Title.

But this is a different year and these are different teams. The Gators don’t have Percy Harvin anymore, and the Crimson Tide don’t have their senior quarterback anymore. Both teams have been great all year, and this should be a very tough-nosed game. But in the end I just think the Gators are too explosive.

I think Mark Ingram is a very good runner, but the Gators have been so dominant defensively this year, I just don’t see the Tide making much of their offensive snaps. Florida has yet to give up more than 20 points, and allow less than 10 on average. Alabama is just a point behind them, giving up only 11 per game. Both of these teams are good, I just think the Gators are better, and that’s what it comes right down to. Alabama is the slight public favorite, 52% like them.

Florida Gators (-5.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn Tigers CFB Free Pick

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Alabama Crimson Tide (-12) @ Auburn Tigers CFB Free Pick: Lucky for you, this game is down to 10 at most books. 10 is much happier than 12, let me tell you what. I would love to make the change to 10, but picks are picks, and when mine came out on Tuesday Morning, the Tide were 12 point favorites, and I still liked them there.

It might not be the Tide that I like as much as the Tigers that I have absolutely no respect for. The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 6, their normal late season slide that never ends until they’re in some turd bowl floating like the rest of the brown trout. Yeah, I said it. Not impressed. The Tigers even lost to a stumbling Georgia team last week.

Now Auburn has beaten Alabama 6 of the last 7 times, a complete domination of the Crimson Tide, without doubt – but, there’s that one time, last year, when Alabama got good again, the Crimson Tide pulled out a 36-0 win over their rivals. Now Alabama hasn’t beaten Auburn in Auburn since 2001 – but that means about as much to me as the way the moons are aligning for the pre-game barbecue. Meaningless.

This Alabama team is very, very good. Up front they can beat and batter anyone, and I think we’ll all see that when they play Florida coming up here. The Tide have been out-rushed a total of zero times this season. Zero. Now that’s consistency. They’ve been out-passed just 3 times – now that’s a balanced attack – sure, but even more it’s one hell of a defense. Auburn scores lots of points, but not this time, they might max out around 10.

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5) Football Pick: A larger percent of the public likes LSU in this one, so much so that the line has dropped to 7.5 from the 9.5 opening. When I made my pick, it was an 8.5 point spread. The public bet is starting to even out, but I can see why most of the bettors like LSU and the points in this one. They’ve lost just one game all year, and that was too one of the Nation’s best teams, Florida, in a very close game, 13-3.

The problem I have with LSU is their ability to score. They’ve struggled offensively against good teams, and Alabama’s swarming defense is one of the best in the nation. The Tide have a fantastic rushing game, and a young quarterback that doesn’t make big mistakes, just 3 interceptions so far this season. Alabama plays the right way, using their run game to out-physical opponents, and the play action pass to stick daggers.

Flat out, I just think LSU is not as good as Alabama. Their rushing attack isn’t as efficient, their offensive line isn’t as good, and as a team their defense isn’t as dominant as the Crimson Tide. I think Alabama has a big performance in this one, beating LSU easily, basically looking a lot better than Florida did when the Gators beat the Tigers earlier this season.

Last season’s win over LSU was Alabama’s first since 2002. The Tigers have beaten the Gators in 7 of their last 8 meetings. The Tigers have finished under the total in each of their last 4 games. The Crimson Tide have finished under the total in each of their last three. Alabama hasn’t lost at home since 2007.

NCAA Football Top 10 Free Picks: Week 1

I’m back! And hopefully, for you and for me, better than ever. If you followed me last season you saw a winning season in both the NFL and NCAA, giving you free NCAA and NFL winners for absolutely FREE. When I say Free Picks, I mean Free Picks, I made nothing, you gave nothing, we’re talking real Free, not some small print excluded kind of free that gets your hopes up right before crushing you with reality. The good free. The big story here? I’m back for some more free picks, write-ups, and best of all, heaps and heaps of flipping winners. College Football’s Week 1 is always a big deal, it means football is here, the NFL is damn close, and that nice warm weather that kept you warm (and less pale) for the last four months is just about finished. But the cooler nights allows me to smell some football. And with a bigger whiff I smell some winners. And that smell, more than anything, makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. Here’s 10 bets for Opening Week… Enjoy!

Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos (OVER 64): Here’s the deal. The Ducks went out big last year, winning a few games to end their season, then busting Oklahoma State in the mouth on their way to a big bowl win over the heavily favored Cowboys. Hooray last year. The Ducks also return their stud starting quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, a beast of a running back in LeGarrette Blount, and a few big boys on the line among others. What they lose, however, is some punch in their secondary and that could really hurt against a Broncos team that knows how to pick apart defenses. Boise State has some athletes of their own, helping Kellen Moore put points on the board will be Jeremy Avery, Jeremy Childs, and a huge play guy in Titus Young – a receiver that just happens to be one of the quickest players in the land. You throw in the blue turf, an Oregon team “trying to prove themselves and make up for last years loss to Boise State in Oregon” and I think the Broncos have the comfort level in this one. While I like the Broncos to win, and likely cover the 4 point spread in this one, I like the OVER even more. Oregon scored over 30 points in 11 of their 13 games, and I don’t think the Broncos will hold them much lower than that. The Ducks give up points too, allowing 30 or more to each ranked team they played in 2008. This game should light up the scoreboard, take advantage of that, it’s the best bet in this game.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: Did South Carolina get that much worse in the last year? I don’t see Steve Spurrier’s team doing that. In fact, I think they’ve gotten a little better. Has North Carolina State become a powerhouse this summer, losing their best defensive player for the season? I think they’ll be decent in 2009, but they’re not a great team. The Gamecocks beat NC State 34-0 last season. They played tough against just about every single team they played until injuries broke them down and they lost 3 straight to end their season. Spurrier is a bit of a donkey, don’t get me wrong, but he’s one hell of a coach, offensive genius, and recruiter. His Gamecocks will get big contributions from freshman, a better season out of the quarterback position, and an upset win at NC State this Thursday Night.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6.5) @ Syracuse Orange: This game seems too easy. Does that put a little scare in a guy? Sure, from time to time, but the books are busy, certainly, and doing all those pre-season games, getting lines up for Week 1 in the NFL, getting proper lines for every single college game to start the season, shoot, it has to be tough. So they miss a line now and again. I’d take the Gophers at -14 in this one, so less than a touchdown favorite seems like free money. You know what I think about free money? Take it before it’s not free anymore. Sportsbook still has the Gophers favored by less than a TD, it doesn’t get much easier than that. The Orange are starting a quarterback that hasn’t played football in 4 years, and just transferred from Duke to Syracuse this spring. Greg Paulus, Duke’s old PG, is now the starting QB for Syracuse. Come on. This is Tim Brewsters’ 3rd season as the head coach of the Gophers, this will be his best season yet. The Gophers can really run the football, and the Orange are terrible at stopping the run. Look for the Gophers to start their season off right.

Baylor Bears @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-2.5): This line seems to be moving towards the visiting team. I think the Deacons will win, but the hype is with the Bears. They have a young QB that lit up the conference last season, but I still give the nod at that position to 4 year starter Riley Skinner – the guy has a scope on his arm. Wake loses a lot offensively with Demir Boldin’s graduation, but there’s talent there, and like I said, Skinner is a sniper. Wake struggled a lot last season, playing way below their expectations, and I think that flips this season. The opposite can be said for Baylor. The Bears don’t play well on the road, they look like everybody’s favorite sleeper team this season, and I’m not buying in. I’ll take the Deacons.

BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners (-22): BYU didn’t get better, and last year they got pretty well kicked around by every “Good” team they played, at least final score wise. Arizona was decent, they won by 10. Utah was good, they won by 24. TCU was good, they won by 25. You get the picture? Oklahoma returns a load of great players, 1st round pick in the NFL type players, best QB in the land type players – so despite the high number, despite BYU’s returning players and big game hopes, I like the Sooners to beat up the Cougars by 30 or so.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: The ACC gets not love, and that’s fine, I’ll just ride them toward some bags of money. The Hokies have a good enough defense to go with them as a 6.5 point dog against anybody in the nation, especially a run first team that lost 3 starting offensive linemen, their starting quarterback, and starting running back. I’m not sure that the Hokies are a Top 5 team, but I really don’t think Alabama will finish the season in the Top 15, not that rankings matter at all, but I’m basically saying the Hokies are the better team.

Maryland Terrapins (+21.5) @ California Golden Bears: I’m taking the Terps because 25 is too high. The Terps play close as dogs, and I think the Bears are a little overrated, even though Jahvid Best is an absolute beast. I think the Bears win by 10, maybe 14, but not more than three touchdowns.

LSU Tigers (-17.5) @ Washington Huskies: If the Tigers promise that they won’t throw the ball, and the Huskies get to stack 11 people in the box, and their new head coach just for shiggles, the Tigers will still run all over the Huskies in Seattle. The talent difference on the field should look like a college team playing a pro team. Do I think the Huskies will be better this year? You bet. Will they be good enough to make this game respectable? No chance. I would be stunned, absolutely pissed on, if the Huskies finish within four touchdowns of the Tigers.

Mississippi Rebels (-16.5) @ Memphis Tigers: Anybody worth anything hammered Memphis last season. The Rebels were one of those teams. This year, the Rebels are a year older, and that has made them a more complete team, stronger in a lot of places that help you destroy teams like Memphis. Ole Miss isn’t used to being in the Top 10, that’s for sure, and a couple games this season, those expectations are going to hurt them. Not in this game, that won’t hold them back.

Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: I think Miami’s the better team. There it is. This game is always a huge rivalry game, but I must say that it has to mean more to Miami. This is their very best chance for a win in the first four games of the season. After FSU it’s Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma. It doesn’t get easier after this game, that’s what I’m saying. So, I think they’ll have a little urgency, something that FSU won’t be ready for. I also think Jacory Harris is special, and that this Miami team is going to be very talented this season. Almost a touchdown dog in this big in-state rivalry game? I like them to cover here.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 15

These are the games I like for Week 15 – talk about a huge week with a lot on the line for some big time programs – especially for the schools that are at home watching and rooting like all hell. Yes, Texas, I’m talking about you. Great games with a lot on the line this weekend, lets see if I can’t have a big winner in the old NCAA one-five (that’s Chad Johnson for Week 15). Eight big games for you college football fans!

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Connecticut Huskies (-2.5): Now Pittsburgh has beaten some teams that Connecticut has lost too, and Pitt has played pretty well down the stretch – but the one key here is that these two teams are pretty equal, and Connecticut has the better offensive line, plays much better at home, and something else too. Yeah, Pitt falls under my bet against list because they won last week when they should have lost. The played poor enough to lose, definitely, but 12 4th quarter points got them w pretty lucky win. That doesn’t bode well for the Panthers this time around.

East Carolina Pirates (+13) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane: I honestly kind of like East Carolina to win this one outright, so that makes the spread that much nicer I guess. Here’s the deal, Tulsa hasn’t won a game where they’ve scored less than 38 points. East Carolina has given up more than 38 points just once this season. THey won’t do that again. They are a good defense and Tulsa has proven that they don’t do well against good defenses. Undefeated at home? Yeah, I know – I’ve looked at all those stats – but they struggle when they don’t score points at will. They won’t on Saturday.

Boston College Eagles @ Virginia Tech Hokies (pk): The Hokies play really tough at home, and while BC plays good football on the road as well, I think the Hokies split this season series and get the Eagles back here. VaTech’s defense will cause lots of problems for Dominic Davis, just like with Chris Crane last time out, and Tyrod Taylor won’t be asked to do too much for the Hokies. Davis played well last week, but VaTech’s defensive schemes are a different beast than Maryland’s. Hokies win at home.

Washington Huskies @ California Golden Bears (-35): This is a huge spread. It should be. I need to do this now because I might not have too many more chance. See, if Mike Leach gets hired on in Seattle, I’m turning the page on this “always bet against the Huskies” thing, and as sad as that will be, I’ll just have to do it. The Bears ousted WSU 66-3 and while I don’t quite expect that big of a lashing, I wouldn’t be surprised about 45-6.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+10) @ Florida Gators: For a #1 ranked team, the Tide sure get very little respect. They are the only “big school” with an undefeated record. If one thing has been consistent it’s that they know how to win. I hate betting against the Gators, and thus I’m only going to do it for a small amount of coin, but Alabama can really run the ball. I now Florida is super fast, but Bama is powerful. They might not win pretty, but they win. Florida has annihilated everyone all year long, sans one single blemish. That may continue, but I’ll never feel bad about taking a 10 point dog that plowed through the regular season without a single loss. Besides each other, I think the SEC is a little overrated, so the work each school did (all those points put up by Florida and those games Bama had giving up a touchdown or less), I’m not so sure about. But both teams can win, and both can really play the game. Hard to go against a Florida team that, last week, has their closest game of the year since their loss to Mississippi, and they still won by 30. But I will. I’m wild.

USC Trojans (-32.5) @ UCLA Bruins: Maybe the recent brotherhood moment of “timeout for timeout” between Carroll and Neuheisel is a sign that Pete will take it easy on the first year coach of UCLA. I’m guessing not. The Bruins haven’t scored double digit offensive touchdowns total this season. That’s right, they average less than an offensive TD per game. What makes anyone think they’ll put up a single one against the Trojans? Pure craziness I’m sure. USC has plans on a big win, and even taking it easy would probably get them a 42-6 win. That’s enough for me. No TDs for the Bruins, that’s my bet.

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Arizona Wildcats (-10.5): The Sun Devils are just as bad as the rest of the Pac 10 while Arizona is really just a step under USC. That’s right, I think the Wildcats are just as good as the Ducks and Beavers despite losing to both teams late in the year. The Wildcats can put up lots of points if they need to and they can play defense too. ASU has been bad all year, I expect that to continue.

Missouri Tigers (+17) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I think that Chase Daniel and his Missouri Tigers saw how Oklahoma piled it on at the end of the Oklahoma State game and said, “F that Stuff – we won’t let them be in the position to do that to us.” We’ll see how it works out, but with Oklahoma already writing themselves in to the National Championship, I’m willing to bet that Missouri gives them a bigger scare than the books are suggesting with this big spread. I like Oklahoma to pull this one out, but around a touchdown is what I expect to see in this one.

DIRECTV – ESPN GamePlan Free NCAA Picks: Week 4

After a losing Week 2 got me down, I fought right back and I put up a 12-4-1 record in Week 3. For the season, that brought me 7 games over .500. I was 7-2 with my DirecTV GamePlan picks, and I’m back at it again this week with the full5 game set from DirecTV (well, the only 5 that carry lines anyway). We’ll see if I can’t have two great weeks in a row. Here’s the short and sweet firework show…

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+8.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (12:00pm EST): This one seems easy to me. The Bulldogs play tight with everyone and Georgia Tech isn’t a force that can put up tons of points all of a sudden. In fact, G-Tech seems to run all over everyone but they can’t seem to compute all those rushing yards into points. The Bulldogs aren’t a great team, but they have the defensive fortitude to be a solid bet when greater than a touchdown underdog.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-9) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (12:30pm EST): I wouldn’t risk the house and the pool and the kids and the mistress on this one, definitely not the mistress anyway – but this seems like a pretty good bet. Sure, on the surface Arkansas is 2-0, but I can’t even list the two teams they’ve beat without really digging in the bottom of the D1 pool. Alabama isn’t a killer offensively, but the Razorbacks just don’t have the firepower to score points here. I’ll take Alabama 24-6 in this one. That covers easily.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (3:30pm EST): They have the talent, and while it is young, they’ve begun to turn it around. Tech isn’t a bad team, they were just greatly overrated to start the season. Now they are giving Tyrod Taylor the ball instead of red-shirting him like they had originally planned. Taylor is a physical specimen, and he should give the Tar Heels enough trouble to get a win for the visiting Hokies. Plus, as much as I love the Heels, history tells me they aren’t the favorite to bet on.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Texas A&M (3:30pm EST): Give me some Hurricanes here. I’m not going to call this a great bet. In fact, I’d stay away from this game as I know very little about either of these teams. However, I like the toughness Miami is playing with, and A&M isn’t impressing me with a couple close games against New Mexico and Arkansas State. Miami is turning around their program, and a road win here should keep them climbing.

Idaho Vandals @ Utah State Aggies (-4.5) (4:00pm EST): Talk about a real exciting game to feast your eyes on. Utah State is 0-3 after a 10 points loss to UNLV, a 42 point loss to Oregon, and then a 42 point loss to in state rival Utah. And get this, they are the favorite in this one. That’s because Idaho is just 1-2 with a 70-0 loss to Arizona on their resume, and this little fact – they are worse than Utah State. So, I’ll put my money on the Aggies in a game of anemic proportions.

Week 5 College Football Picks Review: 2007

It was a bad week. That’s a sure thing. Check it out, these are the games I picked, and this is how it went wrong.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Michigan Wolverines (-16) @ Northwestern Wildcats:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game was closer than I thought, but the Wolverines had it in hand. It was just an unlucky week for old Lucky – what more can I say?

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

0-0 at half, Nick Saban’s offense was absolutely terrible. The Seminoles didn’t play amazing, but that FSU defense is stout. I lost another pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Carolina Gamecocks scored about 10 more points than I figured. I just hated picking games this week, the un-luck had me wondering what I did wrong earlier in the week to deserve all the bad ju-ju. I still haven’t figured it out, but stealing candy from those kids earlier in the week might have had something to do with it.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Cavaliers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Yay! I picked one right. This went just like I thought it would. Weird. Because in every other situation this weekend, that didn’t happen. Thank you Cavs – you are now an all time Lucky Lester favorite. Thanks for keeping me off the snide.

USC Trojans (-20.5) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

UW almost pulled this one out, and that’s because the USC Trojans just couldn’t get their emotional woes under control. Locker was solid, but Josh Booty wasn’t accurate. The Huskies secondary was allowing receivers to get open, just as I had imagined, but Booty wasn’t finding them. He may have axed himself from the Heisman picture on Saturday evening in Seattle.

Free College Football Picks Week 5 – 2007

Just to let you guys in on my lines, I put the place I picked them up this week. I place my bets early, and to get the best lines, that’s not such a bad move. However, weather, mid-week injuries, and health question marks could hurt or help you, so be cautious. Week 5 looks like a great one, with big non-conference match-ups and some conference games that hold all the importance in the world. I have a couple of each in my Free Picks for Week 5.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Michigan Wolverines (-16) @ Northwestern Wildcats:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I just think Northwestern is absolutely brutal and they aren’t going to catch the Wolverines off guard. If Michigan hasn’t learned by now that they can’t take anybody lightly they’ll never learn. I have a feeling that this cover will be covered by the end of the first quarter, and the beating won’t stop. Expect Mike Hart to have one hell of a game against one of college football’s worst football teams.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

Alabama met their match against a solid Georgia team last week, but I don’t think the Noles will end up beating ‘Bama this week. Florida State just hasn’t impressed me. They have only one loss, Week 1 against Clemson, but overall, this isn’t your daddy’s FSU club. They will have trouble with the Tide’s defense, and offensively I think Alabama will put up the 20 points you need to beat a Seminoles offense that just can’t score.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I like Carolina to win this game, because that’s what Steve Spurrier does – but I don’t buy SC walking away from last week’s emotional trial against LSU and beating down the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. MSU has a solid club, and while South Carolina looked much better against LSU that State did, I just don’t think that will translate into a win of two scores or more. Look for South Carolina to control the game, and stay on top, but only win by 6-10 points.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Cavaliers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Pittsburgh Panthers are very bad, and while I’m not the biggest fan of the Virginia Cavaliers, I do think that they are a good enough football team to take advantage of bad defenses and ineffective offenses. They’ll do both when they easily oust the road team this weekend.

USC Trojans (-20.5) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Huskies will be a good football team in the next few years; will be is a key part of that sentence. The Huskies waste too much time trying to fake people out with that shotgun fake handoff quarterback sneak and that draw in the backfield to Louis Rankin. The Huskies need to take more chances with their young quarterback’s cannon. They have receivers that can make plays. But, until they stop playing football “not to lose” – they won’t be able to win big games in the Pac 10. USC has one of the fastest defenses in the land, and believe me, that will bother Jake Locker. USC might let the Dogs hang around early, but by the end of the 3rd quarter, this game should be covered.