Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons Football Pick: I knew you’d be able to get this game at a better number later in the week, because despite what Atlanta’s recent history suggests, everybody thinks this offense is too explosive to play a close game against a tomato can like the Buccos. But wait, just like that, I was wrong – the line actually went down from the 13.5 I got it at on Monday Night – and now sits from 11.5 to 13 – both of which I think are decent bets, but obviously not as good as the touchdown and two field goal loss by the Bucs that would still pay me for a win. Regardless, check out my thoughts and see which way you want to go.

The public liked Atlanta so much, 60%, that the line went down in their favor – hmmm… Vegas doesn’t know everything, but I’m just saying. Tampa had played well in 3 of 4 games before getting beat up by the Saints last week, 38-7. They played Miami tough (probably should have won), beat up on Green Bay (the 10 point win probably doesn’t tell the whole story) and were right there with the Panthers two weeks prior to that (they also got smoked 35-7 by the Patriots somewhere in-between there, but that was in England, what happen in England, well, sucks – just ask Avi from “Snatch”).  They’ve played solid football under rookie QB, Josh Freeman, and they can run the ball. That gets me excited.

The Falcons aren’t a double digit favorite team, as you can see by their 5-5 record, and their two wins by 13 or more points all season long. The Falcons beat up on the 49ers and Washington Redskins. Tampa has played 6 of their 10 games within 13 points of their opponent. Yeah, they have one win, sure, but a running game and a young passer with a couple solid receiving options – against the Falcons defense? – yeah, I like some points going up for the Bucs. I also like Tampa’s chances of slowing the Falcons offense with Turner out. Go Bucs!