Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview: Let me start by saying I think these two teams are way more similar than their records suggest. One is 10-0, the other 5-5, yet I think the Colts are just 3-7 points better than the Texans – but 3 points, and the Peyton Manning factor, that has me on the Colts side once again. I know this Colts team isn’t 10-0 worthy, they’ve needed some help along the way – but they are 10-0, and if I can’t find a better reason than “they should probably lose one of these days, why not this week” then I’m just going to go ahead and keep betting them if the spread isn’t too grand. 3 is never too much….

The Colts/Texans game has been a close affair in 5 of the last 6 meetings – but the Colts have won the last 5. Indy is 6-3-1 ATS this year, and has basically dominated against the spread while traveling – 5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Texans haven’t been great at home, and with even less of a commitment to the run (and the ball in Steve Slaton’s hands less than earlier this year) I don’t think the Texans will take advantage of that leaky Colts run D.

I think this game is going to come right down to it, maybe even the Colts down 3 with a couple minutes left in the game – but even then, I think I’d buck the odds and go with Peyton – the guy has IT.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick

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Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick: I’ve been a big supporter of the Bills, saying often that they aren’t as bad as people think, and sure, sometimes that has kicked me right in the butt (see the Titans/Bills game a couple week ago when the Bills were right with Tennessee until they gave up 300 points in the 4th quarter, again) and sometimes it’s worked out for me (see last week’s game against the Jaguars), but I think this match-up ends up being just a little too tough for the Bills.

Usually, if Buffalo’s defense needs to focus on just one aspect of an opposing offense (just the run or just the pass) they do a pretty good job of making that tough for their opponent. But this is Miami, and they will pretty much run on anyone, and they won’t abandon that idea. Even without Ronnie Brown, they still have one of the more talented run blocking offensive lines in the league, and a great running back filling in as the full time guy – you might remember him from the Saints – or pre-marijuana Dolphins, Ricky Williams. Yeah, Ricky is back, folks, and he’s better than ever – or at least better than you think.

The Dolphins have won 3 of their last 4, covering in 3 of those games as well. Over their last 7 games they are 5-2 straight up and against the spread as well, and they have given fits to some very good teams this season, New Orleans, New England, Indianapolis, etc. – they are a good team. Not always the luckiest, but good nonetheless.

The 3 points shouldn’t be too much, I like the Bills, think this one will be close, but 27-17 is what I’m thinking.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons Football Pick: I knew you’d be able to get this game at a better number later in the week, because despite what Atlanta’s recent history suggests, everybody thinks this offense is too explosive to play a close game against a tomato can like the Buccos. But wait, just like that, I was wrong – the line actually went down from the 13.5 I got it at on Monday Night – and now sits from 11.5 to 13 – both of which I think are decent bets, but obviously not as good as the touchdown and two field goal loss by the Bucs that would still pay me for a win. Regardless, check out my thoughts and see which way you want to go.

The public liked Atlanta so much, 60%, that the line went down in their favor – hmmm… Vegas doesn’t know everything, but I’m just saying. Tampa had played well in 3 of 4 games before getting beat up by the Saints last week, 38-7. They played Miami tough (probably should have won), beat up on Green Bay (the 10 point win probably doesn’t tell the whole story) and were right there with the Panthers two weeks prior to that (they also got smoked 35-7 by the Patriots somewhere in-between there, but that was in England, what happen in England, well, sucks – just ask Avi from “Snatch”).  They’ve played solid football under rookie QB, Josh Freeman, and they can run the ball. That gets me excited.

The Falcons aren’t a double digit favorite team, as you can see by their 5-5 record, and their two wins by 13 or more points all season long. The Falcons beat up on the 49ers and Washington Redskins. Tampa has played 6 of their 10 games within 13 points of their opponent. Yeah, they have one win, sure, but a running game and a young passer with a couple solid receiving options – against the Falcons defense? – yeah, I like some points going up for the Bucs. I also like Tampa’s chances of slowing the Falcons offense with Turner out. Go Bucs!