Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks: I wrote in my Just Picks Newsletter than “I’d Feel like a moron if I didn’t pick the Chiefs in Cincinnati.” And that’s almost exclusively because the Bengals have played close with just about everyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati could and probably should beat the Chiefs by 21 points or more, but the Bengals just haven’t played football like that. They are in it to win games, and if the best way to do that is run the ball a ton and get the game over as fast as possible, that’s exactly what they are going to do. I should know, I’ve been picking the Bengals to cover big spreads, and they’ve been killing me because of it.

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The Bengals are 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS, but 0-4 ATS when favored by 6 points or more so far this season. They’ve beaten just one single team by double digits this season, the Chicago Bears in a rare offensively explosion game for the Bengals. One. In 9 wins, they’ve had one double digit victory – that’s almost crazy speak. But like I said, they are in it to win it and how pretty the score looks at games’ end is of no consequence to the Bengals.

The Chiefs are bad, and even worse on the road, and they only close game they’ve played over the last 4 weeks is their 34-41 loss to Cleveland at home last week, but listen, I’m not picking the Chiefs because of the Chiefs, I’m taking them because of the Bengals, the best ugly winner in football.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy Focus: Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

Here’s Week 16’s Fantasy Focus – do work in the playoffs! Sorry for the brief intro, Santa’s got to do his magic… haha.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Fred Jackson – Atlanta slowed down the Jets rushing attack last week, but Fred will catch a good amount of passes as well. I think he’ll be huge this week.
2. Chris Johnson–  Can’t keep him out of my Top 5.
3. Aaron Rodgers – Seattle isn’t ready for deep passes, I promise, Rodgers should eat them alive.
4. Adrian Peterson – Great match-up against a dead Bears team. Hopefully they don’t rest AP.
5. Philip Rivers – I see the Titans closing down the Chargers rush game, not the passing attack.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Beanie Wells –Best runner on his team, easily, and the Rams mean 20+ carries.
2. Ricky Williams– Houston’s run D is better, but the Dolphins are always tough.
3. Jason Snelling – Lots of room against Buffalo, he’ll get the Lions’ share.
4. Hines Ward – I think Hines has a great game against his favorite foes.
5. Greg Jennings – Tough season, but the upside is against Seattle on Sunday.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Larry Johnson –Both he and Benson should beat up that Chiefs D-front.
2. Pierre Thomas – He has been very inconsistent, like most of the Saints’ backs, but he’s the healthiest and has a nice match-up against Tampa Bay.
3. Vince Young– You need to start believing me about Vince. Good player.
4. Jon Stewart– Usually the #2 in Carolina, should get #1 carries this week, and even though the match-up isn’t great, Carolina’s run game is, he’s worth the start.
5. Fred Davis– Campbell’s top target these days, I think he’s a solid bet against Dallas’s secondary.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Jerome Harrison – I’ve alwasy thought Harrison was the best runner in Cleveland, can you trust Man-Gina? No – but Harrison is still the most talented runner in Cleveland.
2. Quinton Ganther – He’s not consistently awesome, and he hasn’t had a huge week, but Ganther can still play well against a Dallas D that can overlook opponents.
3. David Thomas – Thomas is a #2 TE with #1 upside, and if you need a guy, he could be yours.
5. Greg Camarillo – If you need 10 fantasy points, I think Greg is good for that these last couple weeks.
6. Deon Butler – I still like Butler, he’s got lots of upside and should be better in his second week getting lots of looks.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Peyton Manning– You’ll either love me or hate me for this advice, I’m betting on love.
2. David Garrard– I don’t see Garrard having a great game against the Pats’ D.
3. Reggie Wayne – Tough to sit one of the best, but even if he played a bit, Revis is shutdown.
4. Thomas Jones –Everyone says “start this guy big time” but I don’t think so. The Colts will sit a bunch of starters and make the Jets beat them via the pass.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson– It’s hard for me to see LT beating up the Titans, I think the Chargers start limiting Tomlinson to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

***I think playing Colts is a risk you might have to take this week, if you have really good back-ups, meaning if your league is shallow, stay away from Colts like Addai, Manning, Wayne, etc – if it’s a 16 team league and there’s not much there, risk it.***

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