NFL Free Picks Review: Week 17 Predictions Revisited

Well, the final week has come and gone, and definitely left its mark on us. A couple games went exactly how I figured, and I thought I was a genius. The other games had me scratching my head. The Houston Texans came in and beat the Patriots 1st team – as New England basically played their starters throughout the entire game. But it wasn’t by enough, as I finished a half point out of that win. I, of course, thought the Pats would sit their main guys most of the day. Wrong. Some others went well and a couple more went wrong, but in the end I finished 8-7-1, pumping out yet another winning week…

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Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7) (WINNER) The Colts were playing in the middle of a blizzard, not only the weather, but a guy name Fred Jackson. Keep Fred’s name high on your off-season fantasy rankings, the guy will be the focal point of Buffalo’s offense next season. Just as I suspected, the starters in Buffalo are better than the back-ups in Indy.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers (LOSS) I knew I was in trouble when Jonathan Stewart took it to the house before the game even really started. I got lost in the “we’re going to win, we’re the Saints” way of thinking and thought Mark Brunell could do enough. Wrong. The Panthers whooped the Saints.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Cleveland Browns (LOSS) The Jaguars are unbelievable – how does a head coach of a team in the playoff hunt come into a must win game against a crappy Browns team and get a terrible performance from his team? There’s no excuse for that, I don’t care if you’re Tom freaking Landry, your ace should be jobless for a couple weeks after that garbage. My fault, I didn’t realize how high the Jaguars could turn up the suck.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (WINNER) Gotta give it to the Bears, they certainly made it interesting but pulled away when they realized they were playing against the Lions. That about sums it up.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (-7.5) (LOSS) Oh Bill, don’t you know that every move you have made this year has ultimately back-fired? When you decided to start your best guys and go for the win, you should have flipped the switch, picked tails over heads, gone opposite day psycho on us, I don’t know – but Wes Welker took the brunt of the whole thing. The Patriots lost, by just enough to cover, after they played starters 00% of the game. A mis-read on the playing time thing made it a tough game for a guy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) The Steelers were a really tough match-up for the Dolphins, and they were playing with a little more jalapeno on their pepper jack, and came out victorious. But it was close, and it’s possible that if the Dolphins didn’t have quarterback trouble, health-wise, the Fins might have pulled the upset. But Pittsburgh won again, and pulled it out by 6.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) (WINNER) The Giants had given up. Whew, that one made me sweat. I hope Tom Coughlin gets fired – wait, I don’t hope that really, I’d rather just hate the Giants and get to see them struggle again next season so I can see Tom and Eli have a stupid face competition for one more year.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams (WINNER) San Francisco tried to come out and lose, starting with no swagger, no push, no nothing. But the Rams could only put up a field goal during those early quarters, and San Francisco came out in the 3rd quarter and managed to finish the game on a 28-3 run. I wonder what Samari Mike did at half time to elicit that kind of football? Hmm…

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Bucs really improved this season, and it showed in the final week as they pushed the Falcons until the very end, making me realize that the oddsmakers weren’t actually crazy. But it ended right for me in the end as the Falcons won by 10 anyway – haha, books, take that!

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (LOSS) Wow, the Eagles pulled a Cowboys… They finished the season just like Dallas did last year, but this time the Eagles get the luxury of a second chance – but instead of it being after a 1st round bye and in their house, they get to travel to Dallas next week. Maybe they should have tried this week?

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3) (LOSS) The Packers were the team looking like they had something to play for. And maybe that was what got me in the end. Arizona found out that Minnesota won, and they suddenly had nothing to play for. Green Bay came out trying to beat the piss out of the team they will be playing next week, and they certainly did that. But it was against back-ups for much of the game. We’ll see how it goes next week, something tells me the Cardinals will be playing starters…

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos (WINNER) The Chiefs won outright, and made me feel really good about saying, “This game has upset written all over it,” among other things. The Chiefs had me looking brilliant as they ran all over the Broncos for the feel good end-of-the-year victory.

Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders (LOSS) The Ravens just didn’t push it enough to blowout the Raiders, even though Oakland got a guest appearance from JaMarcus “never cover the spread” Russell, apparently he didn’t play long enough. Oakland was impressive, but the Ravens never looked like they were going to lose despite the close score.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers (WINNER) The Redskins were up in the 4th and lost anyway, weird. Even against back-ups, the same stuff continues to happen. I wonder if Mike Shannahan will have that same problem? Either way, the Chargers didn’t win by enough, as the Redskins covered by a point. A big point, too, the win assured me yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (Push) The Titans came out to get Chris Johnson as many touches as he could and get some records or hit some yardage milestones. Well, for the first time this year, the Hawks came and executed a play pretty well. They wanted to make life as tough as possible for Chris, and they hit him hard and often. Johnson still became the leading Titan single season rusher, scored a couple touchdowns, and finished the year with the best total yardage mark of all time – but he needed 36 carries to do so, and he’ll be grateful there’s no game next week so he can rest. He got hit hard. The Hawks tough play actually ended in a push, and I must say, I didn’t expect them to come out with any will at all. They must have fought the evil Jim Mora curse this week, goldbaum, chili powder, and alfredo will do the trick every time…

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets (LOSS) I thought this game would be tough for the Jets as the Bengals always play close games, tough defense, and the Jets have a really hard time moving the ball offensively. I was wrong. Cinci came out playing thier starters, and tricking the public into believing they were playing to win. But Carson Palmer ended 1/11 for 0 yards and an INT – while Ochonacho finished without a catch for the first time in 125 games… Tough game for me, I thought it would be a lot tighter than that. The do-over next week in Cincinnati should be interesting…

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 16 2009 Predictions

You know what they say, if you’re going to do something you might as well do it right. Okay, maybe I made that up, or maybe they say something similar to that, but it works for Week 16 as I ended up winning twice as many as I lost, and came away with yet another winning week. Single roll freaking Yahtzee! Here’s how my 10-5-1 Week 16 went down…

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San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans (WINNER)  The Chargers made quick work of the Titans, and Tennessee couldn’t get that 2nd win over an above .500 team. Chris Johnson still did work though, and you can bet I’ll be all over the Titans against the Hawks next week.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (Loss) The Bills couldn’t compete. If this team doesn’t have a new coaching staff within a week of the regular season ending, I’ll be stunned. The Falcons came out doing dirty work from the get go, getting people involved early, and dominating the Bills throughout.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) You can count this game as a lesson learned, I fully expected the Chiefs to lose, but have seen the Bengals barely win too many games this season. Put another “close win” notch on their resume, a late TD to Ochocinco gave the Bengals a touchdown win.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (WINNER) The Browns ran the ball, and while their best back (Harrison has been their best back for the last three years) didn’t have his best yard per carry day, he did control the game rushing more than 35 times and getting close to 150 yards on the day. As I said, the Browns didn’t need much QB help after all.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5) (WINNER)This game was over by the time Ryan Grant got his first carry. The big back ran downhill and the Hawks didn’t seem to fond of catching him. Two touchdowns, and some easy passes from Rodgers, an interception filled day from Hasselcrack – it was an easy win indeed.

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) As I said, the Texans are the better team, and here they are going for an outside shot at the playoffs. Houston’s defense played very well, and that’s because they are good. Weird. Who knew? Me.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7) (Loss) The mighty Giants are a mess, and out of the playoffs, what a shame, no post-season looks of disgust from Eli’s frowny little face… The Panthers straight crushed the Giants, and the win apparently kept John Fox his job – great – another year of falling behind by a score early and completely abandoning the run – ugh.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (Loss)The Patriots seem to have it figured out, or maybe they just played a Jacksonville team that always seems to put up soaked baby diapers when it matters most. Coaching… Anyway, New England tossed touchdown after touchdown early, giving the slow moving Jags offense no chance for success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints (WINNER) The Bucs won outright, and they did it in pretty physically dominant fashion. Tampa controlled the line of scrimmage, and now the Saints are flailing to the finish.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PUSH) As it was, a tough game to call indeed. It ended up in a push as the Steelers hit a field goal to win it. Baltimore had plenty of chances, that’s for sure, but numerous mistakes haunted them and leave them needing a win to see the playoffs in the final week. I got the push, but I hate pushes.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Broncos fought hard and could have easily come out of Philly with a win, but Donovan McNabb through a missile to Jeremy Maclin that the rookie caught just before falling out of bounds, that’s when the game was over as Philly had to just run out the clock and kick a short field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss) The heart and soul of the Rams offense, one of the best players in football, Steven Jackson, was a late scratch, and I have to believe, that if he was healthy, this would have been a cover. But what can a guy do? Lose with class I guess..

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) (WINNER) Frank Gore was the best player on the field on Sunday, and the 49ers finally got back to realizing that as the compact running back marched for 150 yards from scrimmage, got 28 carries, and pounded the Lions all day.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts (WINNER) Well, the better team was Indy, but as I said, that wouldn’t matter when you teamed up the Colts sitting their guys before the game was over and the Jets needing a win to see the playoffs – those two things got New York the game, and me a nice win. “Easy peazy japenesey.”

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins (WINNER) It’s pretty clear I have the Redskins pretty well pegged, and those weeks of playing solid football look to be over.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears (Loss) Well, what can a guy do? The Vikings were beat up by the Bears, and though the final score shows an overtime loss, it looked worse than that. Minnesota had some huge plays just to get back in it, and one has to wonder if the Vikings are who we thought they were, or a greater version of the Panthers?

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 12 2009

Well, it wasn’t a grand demonstration of undefeated genius, but it was another winning week. In a crazy week, where I struggled with afternoon games (which I rarely have trouble with), and definitely had a couple late game snake bites (thanks Vince Young, and Pittsburgh trying not to lose). By the time the Pittsburgh line came out late, it was the Ravens heavily favored, and that should have been a win for me, but I had to take it at even to start the week. All’s well though, because a blazing 7-3 start (including a 2-1 Thanks Giving), was just enough to keep me going green. Save the planet, follow my picks. Here’s a little review for Week 12’s NFL action – 9-7 overall.

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Thanks Giving Thursday Games:

Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Just like I suspected, the Packers were just too much for the Lions. No strong pass rush for Rodgers to deal with means wide open spaces for Aaron to deal out passes to. I was a little worried all week, as I thought Culpepper was starting and figured that definitely gave the Lions a better shot to win. But, luckily, Stafford went out there less than 100% and I knew it was going to be a good turkey day.

Oakland Raiders (+14) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss) The Raiders still had a nice chance to cover late, and while they failed, watching this game you have to know where I was going with the road dog cover. Regardless, Tony and the Boys did just enough and I took a Thanks Giving day loss.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+7): (WINNER) Like I said, the Broncos just have a different demeanor when they come out to play and are supposed to get owned. This line was one that described a good road team that has been playing well, coming in against a struggling home team. Sure, the Broncos had struggled, but not any more, and probably less, than New York. A good win for the Broncos, but the Giants are looking up at playoff teams right now.

Sunday Morning Games:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (WINNER) This was a great game to take the Bucs. They were up most of the game, and Matt Ryan was hurt early, and a cover was a sure thing from just about the 2nd quarter on. Now the Falcons came back to win, but that doesn’t mean much to my account. 

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (Loss) Well, this was an unbelievable line, especially with the way the Dolphins had been running the ball, but the Bills came out and thundered the Fins in the second half, and took this game away from Miami in a hurry. The Dolphins surely missed a little Ronnie Brown today, thought Ricky had another really nice game.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans (WINNER) When the Colts were down 17-0, I said, “I’d still take the Colts to win this game. It might be by just a point, but I still like them to win.” – And the rest went just like I figured. The Colts scored more than I thought, but hey, they covered and needed all those points to do so. I still think the Texans have a chance to win out.

Cleveland Browns (+14.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) The Brownies didn’t do much, but they didn’t have to. They played well enough defensively to keep the Bengals out of the end zone most of the day. And anytime you do that, 14.5 points is a tough dog to beat.

Washington Redskins (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Redskins probably should have won this game, but Redskins and “probably should have” never have much pull when talking about reality. But they definitely were a sure-fire cover for most of this game. I was rarely in any worry whatsoever.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3) (Loss) Oh, the Rams gave up some points, and the Hawks did a smart thing and gave Justin Forsett the ball. Jim Mora must have had somebody else making personnel decisions, or I’m sure he would have found a way to get TJ Duckett back in a Hawks uniform. This was still a gross game for Seattle, and I’d be surprised if, despite their ridiculously easy schedule going forward, they won 2 more games this season.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets (-2.5) (WINNER) Jake Delhomme. Yep. That’s about all I have to say. Mr. Revis, the rest of the Jets defense, their coaches and fans – they all say thank you, Jake. Thanks for hail-marry’s every time you throw the ball.

Sunday Afternoon Games:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) (WINNER) The Niners came out shutting down the run and rushing the passer early and often. They did just enough through the air to get the win, and capitalized on good field position. I still think they need to run more to be consistent, but a win’s a win, and the 49ers got that done on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ San Diego Chargers (Loss) I expected a lot more form the Chiefs, or maybe I just am not respecting the Chargers enough. I think I’m on them next week, which should make me worry as soon as I type out my newsletter.

Chicago Bears (+12) @ Minnesota Vikings  (Loss) Oh Jay Cutler. Oh Jay. The Interceptions are mounting my rifle-armed friend. How good does Chicago look now? Brian Urlacher thinks the trade was stupid, I wonder how the rest of the organization feels? I know what I think – it was a great trade, for Denver. I thought the Bears would come out focused for a chance at a huge upset, but they just played the same crappy way they have been. I promise, new head coach in Chicago next season, new coordinators, new everything.

Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss) The Cardinals did just enough to lose this game. That’s right, they played not to lose, and we all know how that always works out. With guys like Anquan Bolding, Steve Breaston, and a little receiver named Larry freaking Fitzgerald, you think they’d take some chances against a Titans defense that has been beat early and often this year. Nope. The Cardinals did just enough to have a late 4 point lead, and we all know what 4-point leads turn into when winners get their hands on them. Yeah, losses.

Sunday Night Game:

Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) This was my second straight last second tumble, and I have to say, Dennis Dixon was good enough to win this game. The Steelers didn’t want him to lose it, and that’s the recipe for doing exactly that. Get Dixon running the ball a little more, throwing on the move, making plays that he’s always made in football, and you get plays like his rushing touchdown in the 2nd half. Have him hand the ball off on 3rd and 6 and you get overtime. Dixon’s first mistake ended the Steelers’ chances, but the fact that they couldn’t stop the Ravens’ rushing attack despite knowing it was coming in overtime gave the Ravens a much easier kick to win the game. Tough loss, especially when I thought Big Ben would be starting, but you can’t win them all. Plus, later in the week this was a 9 point spread, and if you took my advice, you won this game for sure.

Monday Night Game:

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5) (WINNER) The Patriots will be shown as a team that got destroyed this Monday Night, and that may be true, but I saw a lot of open receivers down the field that got missed. I saw a lot of underneath coverage taking away the short crossing patterns, but the Pats didn’t move the ball down field to counter that. I saw Tom struggling with his accuracy most of the game. I also saw a defense that couldn’t do anything against Drew Brees – and this turned out to be a much easier win than it should have been. But I’ll take it!

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 6

After a little run of un-luck, if you will, the tables turned back around to give me a 9-5 Week 6. I’d take 9-5 the rest of the way, that’s for sure. There were a couple big one’s that didn’t go my way as Sunday saw the Eagles lose to the Raiders (even though Papa Weimer warned me), the Giants get trounced by the Saints, as well as Houston upsetting the Bengals in Cincinnati. But hey, you can’t win ’em all. But 9-5 is a win for Week 6, and that puts me 4 more games up over .500 for the season. Won this battle, still winning the war!!! Here’s the review:

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Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5): (LOSS) The Texans through the ball all over the field, as they seem to be able to do against just about anyone. Matt Schaub can sling it, and Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, and Jacoby Jones can catch it. They probably have more guys able to handle Schaub passes, but I can’t name them all. The bottom line is, the Texans set out to make sure Cinci wasn’t going to snipe the victory from their grasps at the end of the game, and going up two scores late finished off the cardiac cats. Houston’s dedication to stopping the run paid big dividends defensively, playing a big role in their win.

New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) “The Saints have been solid, no doubt about it, but they have yet to show me they are the top team in the league, while New York has proven to be in that conversation over and over.” Consider the Saints proven. That doesn’t mean I’ll take them from here on out, but they have won me over. I’ve always been a hater of the way their head coach runs his squad. The way Reggie kept getting carries, or the way Colston had seemingly been frozen out of some games. But he’s figured it out this year, he’s giving the ball to the players that make wins happen, no matter what that guy’s name happens to be. This team in New Orleans is very good, not just offensively, but defensively they are stout all over the field. Consider me educated!

Kansas City Chiefs (+7) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) “This is a real excitement filled contest! For the fifth time this season (which makes that every single week so far) the Redskins are going up against an opponent without a win. Yes, despite being 2-3 on the season, 1-3-1 ATS, the Redskins opponents have been winless prior to meeting the Skins. Lucky for opposing teams, the Redskins have given opponents their first win of the season 3 times. They’ve managed to play close games, though, another reason to take the Chiefs this week in D.C. Another reason to take the Chiefs? They always cover against Washington, at least in the last 5 match-ups they have. What else? I like what I saw from Matt Cassel last week, and from the looks of it he’s getting a little more comfortable with his new offense. KC has played tough with some good teams this year, despite losing by double digits to both Baltimore and New York, they played solid football in both games. They’re winless so far, but if it’s up to the Redskins, that will change. KC’s secondary and run defense can be exposed, but there’s not much positive coming out of Washington these days, so I’ll just take the Chiefs and that free touchdown. This brings the question, should Washington be favored by a touchdown against anyone? I think not.” Can I just let this write up speak for itself? I mean, it was pretty accurate, thorough, and played out well. The Redskins favored by a touchdown, yes please opposing team!

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Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) John Fox and the Panthers tried to lose this one, but DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart wouldn’t be denied. Why the Panthers even allowed Jake Delhomme to throw a single pass is beyond me, bust out the freaking Wild Cat and if need be have a running back toss a deep one to Steve Smith. In the end, the Panthers took this battle of futile clubs – I don’t see many wins for either of these teams down the road, not unless the Panthers figure some stuff out. Yeah, that’s right Bucs fans, you’re already finished. At least there’s a couple big bad defensive lineman to be had at the top of next year’s draft.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): (LOSS) “Taking the Steelers as a double digit favorite is always scary, and especially this season considering they haven’t beaten anybody by that kind of margin, even allowing a late touchdown last week to the Lions to win by just 8 – and yes, I’m still a little bitter about that. But this match-up begs me to take the Steel City, and I won’t fight it.” Should have fought it. Looking back on this game, I still don’t think the Browns cover two touchdowns half the times if these two played 10. But it is what it is, sometimes you miss a spread by a single point – this was one of those situations. The Steelers can’t buy a cover win these days, but hey, the only people effected by covers are us. One field goal away from 10-4…

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-9): (LOSS) “It’s very rare that when you look at tales of the tape and one side wins at every statistic – welcome to the Bills and Jets tale of the tape. Points, Yards Gained, Yards Allowed, Red Zone Efficiency, Time of Possession, Kicking, Penalties, Turnovers, hot wives, confidence – I mean shoot, the only thing these two teams are even close in is New receivers that were consistent problems for their former teams, and that’s a freaking tie, no winner there.” This is why numbers don’t really mean jack. One could say, this is why you play the game, or, you never know on any given Sunday – something in that virginity. All I’m saying is that the Bills came to play, and it might have taken a little luck to get the job done, but the bottom line is that they were the better team this Sunday. The took advantage of a rookie quarterback losing confidence, and they limited their mistakes. TO still dropped a few passes, but Lee Evans had a big play that put the Bills in the right spot. And Buffalo upsets the Jets in New York – very nice! Return of the underdogs!!!

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Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-9): (WINNER) “The Titans have been brutal, and I don’t think their secondary woes will get quelled when Tom Brady and the suddenly sputtering Patriots offense hosts them this Sunday. If anything, I expect Tom and company to beet down the 400 yard passing barrier, put up tons of points, and continue to play solid defense like they’ve done all season long. It may be a popular pick, and the Patriots may be a different offense than they were last year, but last year’s team would have ousted this year’s Titans 70-14. This year’s Patriots could do at least half that mark, and the defense can keep the Titans out of the end zone most of the day.” Amazingly enough, I think I underestimated the Patriots in this write-up. Apparently this year’s team could have outscored the Titans 70-14, but you got the picture I hope. Tom Brady grabbed hold of a record on Sunday, dealing out 5 TD passes in the 2nd quarter alone – I was watching and locked in, what a performance. It was as if the Titans were the only team playing in/on snow.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) “I don’t see the injured Hawks offensive line doing enough to slow that Cardinal pass rush. They have 3 back-ups on the O-line starting group, and that’s being generous with the word back-ups, some of these guys are back-up back-ups. And the Cardinals front four can bring it.” Lots of stuff happened in this game, but in my mind, that front four versus Seattle’s offensive line was the difference in the game. The RBs for the Hawks ran the ball for just around a yard per carry. Matt was constantly hurried, and that secondary which was one of the league’s worst barely had to pay any attention to throws of 12 yards or more. Locked in on short patterns, the Cardinals didn’t allow Seattle to do anything all day long. Called this one right on the button.

Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Oakland Raiders: (LOSS)  I still can’t believe the Eagles lost this game. But, that’s what the Eagles do. Sometimes they get way too pass happy and lose site of the things that would win them games like this in which they don’t play that well – like, um, running the damn ball. I should have listened to my crazy uncle, he picked the Raiders to cover, and their toughness shined on Sunday. I still think the Eagles lost this one instead of Oakland beating them, but Oakland definitely covered that big bad spread.

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Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) The Vikings magic continues. After playing better than the Ravens all day, Balitmore made some big plays, a couple much-needed stops, and Ray Rice took one to the house as Baltimore found themselves up 1 with just minutes left. Did I say just minutes, because any amount of time seems to be enough for Brett to get his team into a winning play. The Vikings did exactly that, moved down to field goal range with ease, and hit the game winner. But wait, it was too fast. Joe Flacco threw for more yards in this game than ever before, and the Ravens are in business to end the Vikings amazing start to the season – but wait – the powers that be pushed the Ravens’ kicker’s try wide left and the Vikings win by 2. Minnesota continues their winning ways, I cover and get the win, the only loser here was Baltimore. I can live with that.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “I’ve missed on the Jaguars a lot this year, but I still don’t think they deserved to be favored by 10 points against anybody. The Rams are getting healthy, as they should have the healthiest offense they’ve had all year. If they commit to the run, and I think they will, they have a chance to cover agaisnt the Jaguars.” The Rams had a chance to upset the Jags, and possibly get that single win they needed to not be this year’s Lions – but just as soon as Leonard Little returned an INT for a touchdown, the Jaguars marched down for the game tying field goal. Then it was overtime, and overtime meant an L for the Rams as Maurice Jones-Drew willed his team to victory, and Josh Scobey finished the Rams off with a game winning FG. The Rams covered easily, obviously, and luckily for me, the worst team in football remains victory-less in ’09.

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Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13): (WINNER)  “The Packers coming off a bye week preparing for a Lions team that has a list of injured players you couldn’t count using just your fingers (who can count past their fingers these days anyway?) – It’s hard not to be all gung-ho about the Packers chances at winning by a couple touchdowns.” Well, the public wasn’t (favored the Packers), I wasn’t (picked the Packers) and hopefully after reading my picks, you weren’t (enter amount won picking the Packers here $____). The bottom line, the Lions weren’t healthy enough to compete with Green Bay’s big guns. I think they game will be closer next time around, but the Packers owned the day this time around.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3): (WINNER) I was confused about this line, I didn’t see the evenness of these two teams as the spread insisted. On that, I was wrong. The Bears and the Falcons are fairly similar teams. They are two squads that relied heavily on the run last season, but haven’t been able to get the ground game going full-speed thus far in 2009. Both passing games have won games, and the threat of the air attack will soon take pressure off the running game. Both defenses aren’t great, but they do hit hard, tackle well, and put pressure on opposing offenses. The Falcons are a little better, but the difference isn’t nearly as big as I thought it was. That being said, Atlanta covered. They needed some big plays on defense, some big turnovers, and a couple throws by Matt Ryan, but they covered.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) I said that the Chargers are and have been overrated, and I still believe that to be true, but they played well on Monday Night. The offensive line couldn’t give Phillip enough time to really hurt them through the air, and the running game did some damage but San Diego’s final numbers weren’t much to be proud of. Denver got 2 special teams touchdowns from Eddie Royal, which they won’t get every night. But don’t be fooled, the better team was Denver, they played better, and they got the win. Nothing surprising here.

NFL Free Picks: Week 14

I guess I knew it was coming, but I’d been so consistent that I was feeling like I’d go an entire year without a big loser. 5-10-1 got me right in the junk, and I dropped 5 games on my season total – these are the days that make pushing not feel so bad. I’m not doing anything different next week than I did every single game prior to this, I’m just marking this down as an anomaly. This is how I got got in Week 14. 


Oakland Raiders (+11) San Diego Chargers: (LOSS) It started off in Oakland where the Raiders came out like it was their job to S#!T the bed. I mean, look at the Chargers stats. LT needed 25 carries to accumulate 91 yards – he scored, but still, that’s a good job by Oakland’s defense. Phillip Rivers was 10-22 for just over 200 yards, but those 3 TDs really helped. Still, there’s not much to like about San Diego’s game, the Raiders just really sucked. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WIN) This was an obvious one. Thank goodness for that. 

Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (LOSS) Well the Lions had a win in their sights and let it slip away. Minnesota is out to get me, that much I know for sure. 

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): (LOSS) How far the Packers have fallen. This secondary gets torched for 400+ yards through the air, and Steve Slaton breaks them up for over 100 yards on the ground to boot. Not only do they get torched, but Houston wins the game with a late field goal. A terrible road team from Texas came into a cold Green Bay in a must win situation for the Packers and won. I’m lost here I guess. Ha.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) All the numbers in the world had me going with the Bengals in this one. I guess it just wasn’t meant to be this Sunday. 

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS)This game yo-yo’d back and forth for quite some time, but Drew and the Saints got it done on the ground just enough to oust the Falcons. This is going to be a sad thing to see one, maybe two of these NFC South teams out of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: (WIN) I was pretty on about this one. The Eagles needed this game and played the Giants tough two times in a row. +9 is too much to give a very talented team that needs a win. 

Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: (LOSS) Yeah, the Browns are even worst than I thought. 

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): (LOSS) It’s nice to see the Bills completely collapse before the Super Bowl – that’s a new one for the old school Buffalo fans. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) Well, the Chiefs didn’t run the ball as much as I thought they would, and Thigpen completed just over half his passes – but the Chiefs still covered by a field goal. 

New York Jets (-3.5) San Francisco 49ers:  (LOSS) “I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset.” Well I lost, but at least I warned you. I would have never expected the Jets and Brett to play absolutely terrible in back to back important games. Nobody’s going to give them a free ride to the playoffs. 

St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) Ugh – when I pick dogs like this and they lose, I feel like one big damned idiot. Oh well, on to next week!

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (WIN) Dallas should have won this game – keep that in mind for next week’s action. The Steelers didn’t do anything offensively, and they needed Dallas to give them this game. But I’ll take it. 

New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: (PUSH) New England didn’t play like a playoff team, but they did enough, just barely enough, to get a fighting Seahawks team. They didn’t do enough to cover the spread I needed to win, but at least I got my money back, more than I can say for 10 of these games. 

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): (WIN) “I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.” You have to admit, when I break a game down like this, you start to believe in me just a little bit more. 🙂

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: (LOSS) I don’t know how the Bucs gave up a million yards on the ground, but they did. I always say, if the Panthers can run, they’re a Top 5 team in the league. Well here it comes folks, watch out for the Panthers, because after Monday Night Football, they showed me they could pretty much run on anyone.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 13

Well I didn’t kill it in Week 13, that’s for sure, but I did finish above a push, and that’s definitely the goal. I had a tough start to the week with 2 losses on Thanksgiving, but a Houston cover on Monday Night Football would get me 3 games over .500 with a nice 4-1 record with my best picks of the week – how’d it turn out in Houston? Well those Texans did alright… As for the entire week, I was 2 points away from two more wins, but you can’t win them all. Check it out! 

Thanks Giving Day Games

Tennessee Titans (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Absolute domination, the Titans are good – the Lions are bad, and that seemed to be the theme throughout. Ha. I won this one with flying colors. 

Seattle Seahawks (+13) @ Dallas Cowboys: (loss) I was fooled, or the Seahawks just played really bad. I know this, the Hawks looked like one of the worst teams in football. Matt Hasselbeck is erratic, the receivers drop balls, the running game is non-existent, and Holmgren is still calling a “play not to lose” game. Hello Mike, you are just about retired, your team has 2 wins through Week 13, and you are still play calling like a puss ball. Get your life together. Ah, was I wrong? You bet. 

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (loss) “This one is actually very tough for me. Just letting you guys know, besides a few tweaks here and there, I basically pick teams based on what types of teams they are compared to what types of teams they struggle with. The Cardinals are a pass heavy team with a suspect rushing attack. They have a defense that can stop the run alright, but that generally struggles stopping the pass. The Eagles have a good defense, and a very talented secondary. From what I see, the Cardinals have yet to beat a team with a good secondary so far this season. But I’m still taking the Cardinals. I think they are even with the Eagles, as far as team strength goes, but Philly is in shambles a little bit, and that’s never seemed to work for Donovan or the rest of the National bird. Going against my own flow here, that’s not always a good thing, so be careful with this one.” I warned you and myself. Hopefully you listened to me (the smart analyzer) and ignored me (the go against my own game plan bettor). Silly me. The Eagles got it together and McNabb showed Andy Reid why benching him is a stupid move. The Eagles have two great players, McNabb and Westbrook. Their coach is a bit of a donkey these days. 

Sunday Games 

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) And the 49ers win outright. Haha! Mike is a good coach. He has toughness and his honesty will always get his guys to play hard. As a touchdown dog I like the Niners – especially against a crumbling Bills team. 

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) So much for the Books always winning. Everyone was on this one, including me, and the Ravens won big. You have to love a day when everyone gets a little richer and the books take a little bit of a hit. Don’t get too excited though, they’ll get you back next week! Ha. 

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (Loss – by a point) I hate the Colts. 

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) My contrasting thoughts were justified as this one came down to the wire. An amazing catch by Steve Smith and a 4th rushing touchdown by DeAngelo Williams put the Panthers up 5 and gave me a winner. Still, I felt like this one was up in the air the entire game. 

Denver Broncos (+9) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. But I think they give the Jets trouble in Week 13. Jay Cutler is bound to play better after his terrible outing at home last week, and the Broncos have played better on the road than at home this season. 9 points is a lot, especially when one team is coming off their lowest low of the season and the other is coming off their highest high. The only play here is Denver.” The Broncos dominated this game from the get go, and besides two long runs, and one of them was a freakish roll non-tackle run, the Broncos shut down the Jets rushing attack, and sent Peyton Hillis into one of the best run defenses in the league and came out with 120 yards and a score. It’s amazing how good and then how bad Denver can be. Luckily I had them on a good night. 

Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams: (No pick in this game, I didn’t get back to the site after Thanks Giving, and then forgot to come back in before Sunday’s game and pick this one – my bad for sure)

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): (Loss by a point) This was my second half point loss, and that always hurts. That’s how a 11-4 week turns into 9-6 – think about how much different those two records are. The Bucs had it at a 10 point game, but then went into run down the clock mode. That got them a tie, and they needed a couple Drew Brees interceptions to get a field goal to go ahead, and then to end the game. Just missed on this one. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Redskins just can’t score the ball and the Giants shut down Clinton Portis. I was never worried about this one. 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5): (Loss) The Falcons continue to surprise me, and the Chargers continue to disappoint me. Atlanta has a good coaching staff that gets their players to play tough every week. Michael Turner went for 120 rushing yards compared to LT’s 20 something… I’m sure MT loved that. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) “I don’t think the Pats defense can hold Pittsburgh under 24 points, and I don’t see Pittsburgh giving up more than a couple touchdowns. If you add those two things together, and I inevitably do, you have to be on the Steelers here.” 33-10 Steelers. This game went just like I thought it would go. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) I love it when my dogs win outright. I expected Tyler Thigpen to have a big game leading the Chiefs to victory, but it was a familiar leader, Larry Johnson, that went old school on the Raiders and used his legs to split this season series. 

Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Loss) The Vikings seem to be figuring it out in the secondary, and that should keep them in first place in the NFC North. I missed on this one. 

Monday Night Game

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-3): (WINNER) It was really nice to get this one. From what I hear the “sharp” money and the public money had the Jaguars winning this one. It’s good to be the extreme minority, at least in this one case. This one more win made a tough week a little bit sweeter, giving me three more games in the green, and getting over the push for the first time in a while. I definitely enjoyed this beatdown. 

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 12

The second week in a row resulting in a vig enforced slap in the face. Still, I can’t be that sad, the number of losing weeks so far this season are few and far between. Still, this is the second week in a row with 8 wins and 8 losses as I’m basically pushing my bike down the street. This is how the week went down. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): (WINNER) This game was actually pretty close, but kudos to the Steelers for working hard to cover the spread. It seemed like the refs were all over the Bengals, taking the underdog in the Pitt game for the second straight week – but Tomlin was ready to fight to the end this time around, and fight the Steelers did. It was nice to start off the week with a W. 

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5): (Loss) Alright, so the Titans got smacked around a little bit by the Jets, but people can stop saying that the Jets are the best team in football because they beat the undefeated Titans. Joke. That’s not how sports work, the only time that really matters is in single elimination post season play or in college football when a top 2 ranking is on the line. In the NFL regular season, anybody can beat anyone else any given week – see Cleveland stomping the Giants earlier this season. The Jets win, and I lose, that’s what matters here I guess. 

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I didn’t see a Dolphins sweep of the Patriots, and reasonably so. This game was closer than the final score, but no matter how close the game was, it seemed like Matt Cassel was doing anything he wanted to do, and the Pats were in control of this contest. Amazing how the weeks have changed, and how Matt’s new salary next season keeps going up and up. 

Chicago Bears (-7.5) St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Matt Forte had his hands all over this win – he tormented the Rams, a team that can’t tackle and can’t block – oh, and can’t seem to put anything together to get open anywhere. They are bad, and the Bears smacked around a bad team on Sunday. 

Houston Texans (+3) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) Sage didn’t throw for 350, but he had a nice game against a week Browns secondary. But the real deal was Cleveland’s offense that so closely resembled a hobbled and anemic pigeon. Looking for something, anything, and just hobbling around aimlessly while doing so. Somebody tell the Browns that Kellen Winslow is their best receiving option. New coaching staff in Cleveland next season – that’s a guarantee. 

San Francisco 49ers (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss – barely) And everything went the Cowboys way in this one – every single stinking thing. The Niners had turnovers and close plays fall to the side, everything went against them, and they didn’t cover by a point. Ridiculous. I’m taking the loss, but I was definitely on the right side in this game. If the 49ers convert one of their early 1st and goals then I cover with ease. Those bastards! 

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) THe Bills made easy work of the Chiefs and they did it by turning Trent Edwards into Vince Young. Nice work. KC really struggles defensively and the Bills needed this win. All those things were obvious on Sunday.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) Detroit Lions: (WINNER) The Bucs tried to bring out the chest pain, but believe it or not, I still had a lot of hope when I was down 17-0 in this game. I even said to my buddy, “Call me crazy, but I still have Tampa winning by two touchdowns if you want to make that side bet?” He didn’t accept, and rightfully so, because the Bucs came back to even further embarrass the pathetic Lions. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) “There’s a lot about Baltimore I like here. Their toughness. The fact that they played their worst game of the year last week. Lots of things. But,” Damn the but, and that’s about where I took it on this one. I felt alright down 3 with McNabb playing his worst half of the season, figuring he’d turn it around in the second half, but I knew I was in deep when Kevin Kolb came out on the field. I hate watching the Eagles. I lost this one big time.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “When teams force the Jaguars to throw, the Jaguars don’t win.” Write that down somewhere and save it for a rainy day. 

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (Loss) The Falcons continue to impress me. The Panthers actually ran the ball pretty well, but Atlanta was having none of it, and continued their elite play while at home this season. This Falcons team might be very good for a very long time. 

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-9): (Loss) I hate the Broncos more than I hate the Eagles, Seahawks, and Raiders (combined). How this talented team gets smoked by the freaking Raiders, in Denver, in a rivalry game, is absolutely beyond me. What a joke. I definitely was wrong about this one. 

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (Loss) Another loss by a point or less. Thanks Seattle for getting that 4th quarter score. I wonder if Seattle will get back to being good when Holmgren leaves? I know this, there’s no way they’ll be as soft as they are now. Still, the Redskins couldn’t pull out a cover for me in Seattle – that half point was the end of me. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: (WINNER) The Giants are really good. Arizona was close in this one. It was a very good game. But the Giants have it defensively where the Cardinals don’t, and that’s a big deal. 

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5): (loss)  The Chargers played like absolute pusses late in this game, and the Colts took advantage of a dumb timeout call that nobody talked about on the Sunday Night broadcast. With 1:30 left on the clock, after coming up just short on 3rd down, the Chargers call an immediate timeout to think about their decision. Nice – save Peyton Manning and company 30 seconds. That’s always a brilliant idea. The Chargers lose by a field goal, and my overtime chances of a win went right down the drain. Brilliant. 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: (Loss) The Saints continue to hit me where it counts. I’m pretty sure they check to see if I’m taking them or not, and they play accordingly (opposite of course). This game was close in the first half, but then Drew Brees played like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers played like Ryan Leaf – it was tough sledding after half time.

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 9

After a 4-4 morning in Week 9, my undefeated afternoon brought me to 8-4 before the night games came…  Sunday Night gave me a pretty good number with a mediocre Colts team being favored by 5.5 over the Pats. I took the Pats and was 9-4 heading into Monday Night’s action. As it turned out, Week 9 would get me only 9 wins, and by only I mean 9 great freaking wins… 9 in week 9 – you have to love that!  

New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “The Bills haven’t won a game against a good run defense yet this year. Seriously, Arizona and Miami are both solid run defenses – the Bills have two losses, one loss in Miami, one loss in Arizona. They are undefeated at home this season, against the spread as well. The Jets gave the ball to the Chiefs numerous times and still came out on top last week, but they were playing the Chiefs. I understand that the only road win New York has this year was in Miami in Week 1, and they got beat by Oakland last time they went traveling (gag reflex there). All that being said, I like that the Jets can stop the run (4th in the league with just over 80 yards given up per game) – and I like how that corilates with the trouble Buffalo has had with defenses that make running tough sledding. So, I’ll take the Jets and all 6 of those points in this divisional “HUGE” game.” Yeah – that’s about how it went. Lynch was the Bills leading rusher with 9 carries for 16 yards and the Jets stepped up and played well in a big game. Still, they need to run the rock more than they have been. 

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) The Lions have played better on the road than at home, they are getting 14 points at 5 Dimes. Orlovsky has proven to be a decent option, and Calvin Johnson is borderline unguardable. I like the Bears to win this game, and bring the Lions to 0-8 during the first half of the season (probably not winning 10 games like Jon Kitna says, just my observation, but who knows). However, I do like Detroit to play better than a two touchdown dog to a Bears team that definitely has flaws on either side of the ball. The Bears should not be favored by two scores against anyone in the league.” It’s nice to start the week with two perfect analysis write ups of each game, however, the next four didn’t quite go the way I was hoping… 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Gross. The Jaguars couldn’t run, they couldn’t throw, overall the whole deal was pretty pathetic. Chad Johnson picked up two touchdowns on the day, though, it was nice to see him back on the board. What’s wrong with everyone in the AFC South besides the Titans?

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (PK): (LOSS) The Browns just choked away this win – they were up 27-20 going into the 4th before giving up a field goal, and offensive touchdown, and then a pick 6 to Terrell Suggs and the Ravens defense. This was a tough game and Browns has a win in sight. They scored enough points to where I thought they’d get the win. And then the wheels came off. This Browns team is who we thought they were, overrated. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (LOSS) The Bucs scored 14 points in the 4th and they needed every single one of those just to get into overtime, and that includes their 2 point conversion with less than 20 seconds on the clock. In overtime, the Bucs got a big play from Jeff Garcia to Michael Clayton, getting them into field goal range and Matt Bryant put up the game winner. Tampa didn’t come to play early in this game, and it showed. Still, they were good enough to make survivor picks everywhere smile. I lose and frown. 

Houston Texans (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (LOSS) Minnesota had Matt Schaub go down in a first half that they didn’t play too well in. That being said, I’m not sure how much different the game would have been had Schaub not gotten injured. Sage Rosenfels is one of the better backups in the league, and he did a good job in relief. Adrian Peterson was a beast in the 2nd half and just wouldn’t let the Texans defense get off the field. A 4th down sack with a minute left gave the Vikings the win. Close, but no cigar. 

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) And the Cardinals win easily. They are much better than they’ve been over the past few seasons. Their confidence at home and on the road is apparent, showing when they absolutely hammered the Rams today. Good win for me. 

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (WINNER) This game went just how I thought it would go. I saw two teams that were very equal, and had the Titans winning by a field goal. Equal? Sure, this game went into OT, but it was the Titans consistent attack that gave them the win. Still, my Packers bet covered, making me a happy man. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WINNER) This game was interesting. Miami controlled it throughout, but they didn’t really do anything great. Ronnie Brown only had 59 yards on 20 carries, and Pennington threw 40 times to get 281 yards and a pick, without a touchdown. Four big field goals for Dan Carpenter really helped the Fins out, but Denver’s pass happy turnover prone attack is really what gave teh Fins a win here, and that tough run defense didn’t hurt. Either way, I took this W outright. 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-8): (WINNER) “Too much defensive pressure by the Giants will absolutely make Brad Johnson a sitting duck. (Brad left at half because of his inability to do anything worth while) The Giants are too tough against the run to allow Marion Barber much room to explode (Barber had his worst day of the season, rushing 19 times for 54 yards, and catching just one pass for -12 yards). New York should win this one in the 24-10 range.” Something like that, huh? The giants won 35-14, a little better than I thought, and they looked good against a Dallas team that couldn’t pose a down field threat since Tony Romo went down a few weeks ago. Thank God for a bye week, eh Boys fans? 

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) I thought this game would be a little tighter, but my lean was easily in the right direction. The Falcons didn’t commit stupid turnovers and penalties, and thus their youth didn’t hurt them. They ran the ball all day long and took advantage of some nice plays by Matt Ryan. Atlanta won easily, I win again!

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) I know it doesn’t look like the “sharp” bet here, as just about 75% of the public is taking the Eagles, but I can’t see another side. The Seahawks got two 50 yard touchdown catches from Leonard Weaver of all people (last week). Those were Seneca Wallace’s only touchdown passes and almost half of his total passing yardage. Seattle’s defense still doesn’t do enough to disrupt a good offense, and the Eagles (with Brian Westbrook) have one of the most efficient and mistake free units in the league (they didn’t have a penalty against the Hawks and controlled the ball like it was their job). The Hawks may be without Lofa Tatupu, and that would be a huge hit. The Hawks may have killed a disfunctional 49er team last week, and no win is easy in the NFL, but I see things coming a lot tougher for the Hawks in this one. The Hawks have 2 wins, to the great 49ers last week (after losing to them once already) and to the tough and gritty St. Louis Rams prior to Haslet taking over. They’ve been destroyed by “good” teams that they’ve played. Buffalo beat them by 24, the Giants ran over them by 38, the Packers only won by 10 – but it wasn’t that close – trust me, the Bucs also won by 10 – but that also wasn’t even close. I hate going with 75% of the public, but 6.5 looks nice from my pedestal.” What can I say, this one was just as easy as it looked. The Eagles didn’t score a lot of touchdowns, but they controlled the clock and busted out field goals all day long. The Seahawks had a 90 yard pss for a touchdown on their first play from scrimmage – they never scored again and Wallace threw for less than 90 yards the rest of the day. 

New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) These two teams were awkwardly similar during the game, and New England definitely had their chances before shooting themselves in the foot with a late hit penalty (thanks back-up tight end David Thomas), but things happened. Honestly, it was probably better for my cover to have the Pats have to go for it on 4th down, and give it back to the Colts with no time outs left. Indy ran out the clock and basically guaranteed me this game. I win again, the Colts get to .500 and will possibly make them a good value to go against next week, we shall see. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (-1): There was a lot to look at in this one, and if you read my analysis, you could see that I wasn’t feeling good about the Skins, but having to lean one way or another, I sided with the home team. Well, Washington pooped the proverbial bed, and now they go into the bye week struggling. Those are the breaks. Washington had a couple things go there way and it seemed like good old Mo jumped ship headed into halftime. After that the Skins were flat, Jason threw his first pick, followed by his second, and the game was over. Byron Leftwich carried the Steelers – you heard that right. Sometimes you have tough days, I certainly did. On the other hand, McCain looked like a turd, so that’s always refreshing… my friends.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 8

6-8 – but I’m telling you, if you watched the Tampa game or the Falcons game, you have to see where I was coming from – I still think I capped those games perfectly – but that’s the way the china shatters, and I ended up 2 games under .500 this week. Shame on me. On the bright side, my three best picks of the week were 2-1 (one loss was Tampa) – but overall I need to be better next week – here’s where things went wacko in Week 8.

Oakland Raiders (+7)Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5)Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) “Maybe the books know something I don’t.” Yeah, apparently they did, for example, there would be a handful of penalties that basically made it possible for the Cowboys to do anything worthwhile. I hate referees. Yeah, I may be complaining a bit much here, but that game was a joke – the Bucs didn’t come out attacking, and the Cowboys defense played well, but this one was won and lost by striped jerseys. Great.

Washington Redskins (-7) Detroit Lions: (WINNER) I’ll take that point. I needed it bad.

Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins (+2): (WINNER) Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home.

St. Louis Rams (+8) New England Patriots: (WINNER) “I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy.” Ha. Even with Steven Jackson not playing at the last moment and Leonard Little going down with a bad hamstring in the 2nd quarter, the Rams still covered this one. I can only imagine what this game would have looked like had those two characters played.

San Diego Chargers (-3) New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) “These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day.” This game was weird. I think the Saints probably traveled a little better than the Chargers and that gave them the win. LT blew up and Rivers looked solid, but the Saints still came out victorious. This guy named Drew Brees, he can really do some work.

Kansas City ChiefsNew York Jets (-12.5): (LOSS) “Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated.” The again, maybe they aren’t. Who have the Jets beaten this year? New York needs to go back to pounding the run and stop making so many stupid throws… Ugh-hmm… Brett.

Atlanta Falcons (+10)Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) The Falcons should have covered this game. Brian Westbrook freakishly stayed in bounds on a last minute long touchdown run that didn’t matter at all. If you watched the game you know what I’m talking about, this was one of those games I capped right that ended on the wrong side. I had a couple of those this week. The game before this one (Jets) and the one after this (Jaguars) are not examples of that.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): (LOSS) “Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here.” I hope you headed my advice to leave this game alone. If you didn’t, like myself, then you lost the game outright. I don’t know, but Cleveland’s run defense came to play. If they can beat the Ravens next week they move to 4-4 after their terrible start. Sound like anyone from last season? S A I N T S…

Cincinnati BengalsHouston Texans (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one.” 35-6… Ah, that makes me feel a little better, you know, like I know what I’m doing.

New York GiantsPittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (LOSS) I’m not even going to talk about this game. I turned it on just in time to see the Steelers DE/Linebacker snap the ball over the head of his punter to tie the game up. I knew things could only go up from there… Uh, I was wrong. Pittsburgh looked terrible in the 4th.

Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers (-4.5): (LOSS) The Niners were brutal, but the Hawks didn’t do good things to win this game. They took free turnovers that Mike Martz and that pathetic offense gave them. They couldn’t stop Frank Gore, but that’s okay, because Martz does that every single week for San Fran’s opponent. Seneca Wallace completed 2 long touchdown passes to his full back, Leonard Weaver. How often do you think that will ever happen again? Those two plays accounted for just about half of his passing yardage. The Niners sure sucked, and I got this one wrong.

Indianapolis ColtsTennessee Titans (-3.5): (WINNER) This was an interesting game. The Colts looked like there were ending the Titans perfect run, but it all came crashing down in the 4th quarter. The Titans didn’t do much well on Monday Night, but they did take advantage of some big Indy mistakes. Manning looks a little lopsided, or at least his passes do (his face is weird too). Anyway, the Titans got me a must cover on Monday Night, bringing me to 6-8 in a week that should have been 8-6 at least.