Tag Archives: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: This spread tells me Vegas thinks these two teams are very close, but Indy is a little better. I agree with that. Peyton Manning is obviously the trump suit in this game, and he’s proven over the years that he’s tough to gamble against.

Despite playing their home games on turf, the Colts have played really well on grass over their last 8 games, going 6-1-1 ATS. However, the Colts haven’t been as good of a cover bet against team’s with winning records, going 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine that qualify. Baltimore has been, consistently, one of the best cover bets in the NFL. They are 19-6 ATS over the last two seasons (including the playoffs). But they haven’t been great against the Colts.

The Colts have covered 5 straight against the Ravens, and they’ve won 6 in a row. Peyton Manning has Baltimore’s number, that’s for sure, not one team has had anywhere close to that much success against one of the best defenses in the league over the lat 10 years. Peyton and company put up 31 points on the Ravens last year, and in 2007 the Colts dumped the Ravens 44-20. Indy has beaten the Ravens in Baltimore three straight times.

The only team with a solid passing attack that Baltimore has beat this year was San Diego – and the Chargers out passed the Ravens by 240 yards. But the Ravens are almost guaranteed to out-rush the Colts, and Baltimore is 5-1 this season when out-rushing their opponent. Who is responsible for that one loss? Tom Brady. Yeah – I’ll take Peyton.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

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If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, “This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Pick & Preview

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New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts Pick & Preview: This game is close, obviously, Vegas thinks so (hence giving the 8-0 Colts just 3 points at home) and I think so (hence I’m taking the Patriots and the field goal. Since the beginning, the public has liked New England in this one. Maybe Tom Brady’s the NFL darling, maybe people think the Colts are bound to lose one pretty soon, maybe those 57% are like me and they see a Colts team that is deflated by injuries, coming off a couple very close wins against solid football teams in San Francisco and Houston.

The bottom line is, both teams have had some tough games against opponents everyone expected them to beat easily. The Patriots struggled but won against Buffalo to start the season, and lost games against Denver and the New York Jets earlier in the Year. The Colts struggled a little but won at home against Jacksonville, in Miami, and then games against the 49ers and Texans. But both teams are winners – no doubt about that. Both can put up points in a hurry, and both are opportunistic on defense. They limit the big play and make few mistakes.

Picking a side is tough, no doubt, and the Patriots haven’t played well on the road, 0-2 in true road games (they had a ‘fake’ road game in England where Tampa Bay played as the home team). They lost @ Denver by 3 and @ New York against the Jets by 7. They failed to score 20 in either game, and while their defense played well, it was their offenses inability to get into the end-zone that lost them the game.

I don’t think they’ll have trouble scoring in Indy. And defensively, the Patriots are better than the Colts. The Patriots score more, give up fewer yards, gain more yards, and control the ball for longer stretches. The Patriots have been able to run the ball lately, something that should help them against a Colts defense struggling to stop opposing runners.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick: As you know, it’s hard to bet against the Colts right now. Peyton Manning is at the top of his game, and his game was pretty impressive before he was at the top. They find ways to win when it’s tough, they cover spreads (5-2 ATS so far this season) and they bring an undefeated record home to Indy to host the 5-3 Houston Texans. But 10 points is too much for me, mainly because good teams shouldn’t get double digits, and Houston is a good team. I know, it sounds as weird to say it out loud as it does to write it, as I’m sure it’s just as odd to read. But it’s true.

The Texans have won 4 of their last 5, three straight, playing good football all season long. Even their losses (for the most part) have been close games. They lost by 7 at Arizona, by 7 against the Jaguars, and their only blowout was Week 1 against a Jets team that came right out and out-physicaled the Texans from the get go. I think Houston is playing the best football they’ve played in their short history, Matt Schaub has been awesome, and despite seeing their star running back get benched last week, they’re always a threat for a big play on the ground. During their current three game winning streak, they’ve beaten a couple pretty good teams in Cincinnati and San Francisco. It will be tough to continue, but they’ve out-passed their opponents in 7 straight games.

Another thing, Houston seems to always play Indy tough. Indy’s won 9 of the last 10, but this game has been decided by a touchdown or less in 4 of the last 5 contests. The Texans might not be getting over the hump, but they’ve been pretty damn close. 10 points for a good team is just good value-betting.

San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts Free pick

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San Francisco 49ers (+13.5) @ Indianapolis Colts Free Pick: I liked the 49ers at -12 to start the week, but this one has a chance of getting to 14 points. Oh, that would make me feel so good. Still, 13 is a good number to get past as well, that way a touchdown and a couple field goals up still keeps me in the money. The 49ers are a good team, and I know the Colts have marched through quite a few squads so far, leaving nothing but Peyton Manning commercials in their wake, but this 49er team has heart, they showed that early in the season and they showed that late last week when they fought and scratched back into a game most teams would have just walked away from. Alex Smith definitely has his hands full in his first start in quite some time, but I think the 49ers can run on Indy if they just full commit to doing so. Frank Gore should be healthier and back in the game this week. I see this game being a lot closer. An out right win would surprise me, but don’t put it past the 49ers, staying within 13 seems like a good bet to me.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 7 2009

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9-3-1… That is a record I would love every single week of the year. We could all be rich off that type of pick production and I’m going to do my best to make that happen the rest of the way. Of course, I’m always doing my best, making my picks, assessing the sitch-e-ation, and get the right side against that dreaded line. This week I missed on the Cowboys/Falcons game, and I didn’t give the Cardinals enough credit and might have given Eli a little too much after a nice start to the season, so those two games I fully accept as losses. But the Vikings? Please. They cover that game 8 of 10, and if it wasn’t for two freakish defensive touchdowns in the last 6 minutes of that game, the Vikings cover anyway. That being said, I must say I probably shouldn’t have covered the Saints/Dolphins game. So I guess 9 is right after all. Regardless, I won 9 games in a 13 game week, that’s good stuff, here’s the business….

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Eagles were playing awfully poorly to be up 20-7 in this game, then on 3rd and 24 Donovan threw a bomb to DeSean Jackson for a touchdown to go up 27-7. It was over at that point, basically, because everyone knew there was no way the Redskins were going to score 20 points from there forward. The Eagles tried to dissolve their easy cover, but Washington just couldn’t do enough – lucky me. The Skins D was solid, despite some big plays they allowed, if they only had an offense…

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7): (LOSS) Eli looked more like Ellie in this one, missing on passes, getting them tipped, having that pouty face, getting some drops from a couple of those young receivers, just having an all around tough go of it. And of course they forgot to run the ball despite the success they had early. Oh the Giants, this is what they’ll do to you every once in a while, can’t dominate for all 16 games. Kurt Warner and company played solid football, definitley, but it was Arizona’s secondary that stole the show.

New York Jets (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) “Unlike the Eagles, the Jets won’t forget the run, in fact, I think they’ll rely more heavily on it than any game this season. The pressure won’t be on Mark Sanchez’s arm, but the offensive line and a talented running back group. That should spell certain doom for a Raiders team looking to make it two wins in a row.” Well, the Jets lost one third of their talented running tree, but Shonn Greene came in and showed what he can do as the Jets had two runners bust well over the 100 yard mark. The Jets just flat out dominated, getting the Raiders to pull JaMarcus Russell, and think how bad he’s played this year while never getting the yank. Yeah, it was that bad.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) Hey, I’ve always been here to take it when I lose, and I definitely underestimated the Cowboys in this one. That defensive front came to play, giving Matt Ryan trouble all day long, proving that you can still frazzle the young quarterback if you put the pressure on. With the Cowboys up big early, the Falcons pretty much abandoned the running game, taking away their strength on the ground with Turner and also Ryan’s most accurate part of his game, the play action. Kudos to the Boys. Great game for Mr. Romo as well.

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1): (WINNER) “The Bengals, favored at home, against a mediocre NFC team – yeah, I like my chances. Now, the Bears shot themselves in the foot all week long against the Broncos, and the game was still very close – but that doesn’t mean it’s going to carry over here. The Bengals also have a very good defense, a secondary that preys on mistakes by opposing quarterbacks, often baiting them into poor throws. Cedric Benson will have something to prove in this game, and I think he’ll get his teammates to climb on his back for this victory. He’s been running angry so far this season, and I think he’s been looking forward to this match-up for a long time.” Well, the Bengals preyed on Jay Cutler, baiting him into bad Jay Cutler-ish throws, and Cedric Benson stomped all over Chicago’s couches. It was a fun one to watch.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I really want to take the Dolphins here. I know the public is going to be jocking the Saints like nobody’s business, and Vegas is on pace to hit a few like that coming up. But I can’t buy enough into the Dolphins in the match-up. Why? The Saints have been too good against the run, and more importantly, too good running the ball. That’s right, you heard me. Lost in Drew Brees’s amazing season thus far is the glue that’s truly making this team great, the running back by committee approach. While Drew has been on fire, people forget to realize that this rushing attack has out-rushed every single opponent they’ve gone up against this season. That means two things, the offensive line has been dominant, and also, the defensive front has been stellar. You don’t out-rush every single opponent unless you can stop the run when you’re not on the field. That single aspect of this Saints defense makes me think the Wildcat might have met their match. I’d love to see the upset here, I just don’t think it will happen.

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Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (LOSS) This should have been a cover. If you watched the game, you feel me. If you didn’t, just believe me. The Vikings were the side in this one, but sometimes you lose games you should win, and other times you win games you should lose – this time I was un-LuckyLester…

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) “Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!” Hooray us, damn the man is right! Like I predicted, the Packers finally gave a good number of chances to the guy that should be their work horse, Ryan Grant. It kept Rodgers off the turf, and the ball in Green Bay’s hands. With that kind of attack, the Browns never stood a chance.

New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) When you have a great team against a crappy team, at least this season, the chances are really low that the crappy team is covering, even with a big bad spread like this one. The Patriots throw 5 touchdowns in a quarter, or anything like that, but this game was in hand very early. All these big favorites are covering, that goodness I had a bunch of them this week.

Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) “I don’t see what the Panthers have done to be a touchdown favorite against anybody in the NFL.” Regardless of what anybody thinks about these two teams, the bottom line was just as I wrote it, the Panthers shouldn’t be favored by 7 over anyone. The Bills didn’t do anything offensively, couldn’t really run it, and didn’t have great passing numbers, but they didn’t need to. The Panthers give points away weekly, and if you can just let them beat themselves, you’re in.

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San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: (PUSH) The 49ers fell down early, 21-0, and the Texans were definitely in charge. A quarterback switch, an inspired defense, and some big plays from Vernon Davis got the Niners right back in it, but they fell short a field goal, getting me a push. I’ll tell you what, being down 21-0 at the half, without an explosive offense, and still getting a psu – if that’s what bad looks like, I’ll be alright.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) I was right on here, loved the Chargers by a touchdown or more, and they followed through and made me look good. The bottom line was that SD’s defense played very well last week, despite what most people remember from that Broncos’ game, and they continued that inspired play against the Chiefs, giving away absolutely nothing all day long. They won easily. Me too.

Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Just a gimmie, a no doubter, the Rams facing two weeks of prepared Peyton Manning – it was 42-6, and I don’t think it was that close, I’ve got to be honest.

Indianapolis Colts vs St. Louis Rams Free NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams: The Colts are too good to go against here. The Rams may have given Jacksonville a scare last week, and I know this is the NFL, so anything crazy can happen (see Philadelphia’s breakdown in Oakland last week) but does anyone really see the Rams having a chance here? I’ve never been a huge Peyton Manning fan, but I can respect the man’s work, and he does it perfectly. He has all the tools, the accuracy, and the know-how – not to mention the work he puts in to be great. And he’s going up against the Rams, a defense that doesn’t successfully stop anyone. Offensively, the Rams just aren’t good enough to oust the Colts. Not only are the Colts a team that makes you be efficient and methodically move the ball to stand a chance, but they have a front 4 that constantly puts opposing offenses in tough situations. And this week they will likely get Bob Sanders back. Yeah, that’s right, the Colts have done this all without their best secondary player, the human missile, Bob Sanders. Marlin Jackson (the best corner on the team) might also be back after missing the first handful of games. I know it’s a double digit spread, but if there’s ever a time to take a road favorite in this situation, it’s now. The Colts have a very quick strike offense with one of the best QBs of all time. They limit big plays defensively and get after opposing QBs. Marc Bulger is a turnover machine under pressure and he just happens to be quarterbacking the worst team in football. That’s all I’ve got, give me the Colts.

One for Wednesday

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I got lost in a maze and couldn’t write “10 for Tuesday” so I’ll just give you this one piece of free fantasy advice and hope it will suffice. I do love my readers though, so it should be a nice little tidbit of information. 

There are some teams that have tough endings to the season, and now is the time to prepare yourself for a big finish and maybe even playoff match-ups. That’s right folks, teams like New England, who started the season with the Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins, 49ers, Chargers, Broncos, and Rams – now have to play the Bills twice, teh Dolphins D, the Steelers, and Cardinals as well. Even the Jets have a tough run defense. If you are holding on to Sammy Morris hoping for solid days, I would just about try to get any value for him as soon as now, or if he has one good game. But tough schedules aren’t what I’m here to talk to you about, I’m here to give you three players that have underachieved (aka they can be had for CHEAP) that have happy go lucky match-ups for the rest of the season (or most of the season). Here goes nothing.

Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown: Alright, Ronnie has really struggled the last couple weeks, and his value might be down right as low as it’s going to get. The thing is, this Dolphin team has a runner’s dream schedule going down the line. Broncos this week, then Seahawks, Raiders, Patriots, Rams, (Bills are tough), 49ers, Chiefs, and (Jets are tough in week 17, but nobody rocks Week 17). Also, Ricky is supposed to get a few more touches, which might make him a nice waiver wire addition. Big playoff bonus for Ronnie, and maybe Ricky too, the 49ers and Chiefs during playoff time when they’ll still be trying to win games – you have to like that.

DeAngelo Williams: I love Jonathan Stewart’s game, but it looks like Williams is going to be the main man in Carolina, and he’s been playing like a former first round pick, so why shouldn’t he? That being said, look at the Panther’s schedule and get even more excited for this easy pick-up. Williams has been pretty solid and he still doesn’t hold much value. But like I said, he plays the Raiders, Lions, Falcons, and Packers coming off Week 9’s bye. That should give him plenty of solid numbers, and being that he’s in a bye this week there’s likely no better time to get him. He has two tough games left on the schedule, but also plays Denver in Week 15, and you all know what running backs do to Denver.

Colts: Nobody can argue with me here, the Colts have their lowest value in years – but there’s an answer to those slow numbers on the way. Indy has New England this week, then Pittsburgh – but they it looks like an offensive explosion after that. Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville – and Week 17 Tennessee, but the Titans are probably done playing starters before that and Week 17 rarely matters anyway. It might be a good time to grab Peyton, Wayne, Addai, and maybe even Anthony Gonzalez (I like him more than Marvin heading forward) – those guys should all have brighter fantasy dreams in the 2nd half.  

Lastly, let me say this, go for the Cardinals if you can. I know they’ve all played pretty well, but if you can still get Kurt Warner or Boldin or Fitz, or if someone is trying to get them from you, laugh a sinister cackle, because the Cardinals play two tough secondary’s the rest of the way (Eagles and Giants) and after that they have favorable match-ups. Go Captain Kurt!

One for Wednesday

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Watch out Horse Fans: The Colts are Bad…. 

I’m sorry but the Colts are bad. I’d be worried about owning Joseph Addai and maybe even Peyton Manning – definitely Marvin Harrison. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still legit. The scarriest guy to have is Addai because you blew a Top 5 pick on him and now look at his game. Unless the Colts stop being brutal, they are always going to be playing from behind, and that doesn’t bode well for the running game. You add Dominic Rhodes to the equation and now his catches are coming down as well. The Colts offensive line is really struggling and they should really be 0-4. I think the Colts are worse than their record, and if you can pick up a nice runner for Addai, meaning if there is someone out there that loves Joseph, you might want to see what you can get – that’s my advice.

Free Super Bowl 41 Pick

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. CHICAGO BEARS

The Colts come into Miami as a touchdown favorite over the Bears. Indianapolis has finally exercised their playoff demons, conquering the Patriots on way to their first Super Bowl in the Peyton Manning era, while the Bears have reached the big show for the first time since their 1985 Super squad won the whole thing. A battle of Defense against Offense ensues when Brian Urlacher and the Bears take on Peyton Manning and his Colts.

An Argument for the Bears

Chicago comes to Miami saying all the right things. They also show up as a touchdown underdog, something that rarely works out for the heavily favored team. Chicago has proven throughout the playoffs and during the regular season, that they can win close games (27-24 over the Hawks in Round 2) and finish games they dominate (39-14 over the Saints in Round 3). Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson have steamrolled opposing defenses, rushing for a combined 294 yards and 5 touchdowns in two playoff games. And Rex Grossman, amongst much criticism, has done everything he has been asked to do, including the completions of some huge throws down the stretch to set his team up for victory. Underdogs often play with a confident, nothing to lose manor, giving them a slight edge when the going gets tough. Chicago has lost 3 games all season, and that’s only if you count a meaningless loss to the Packers in Week 17. The Bears score more points per game than the Colts. Ask anyone, the Bears defense is better than the Colts defense, no question about it. The Bears are 7-1 against the Colts all time, winning their last match-up with the Colts, 24-17 in 2005, when they held Peyton and the Colts to 30 rushing yards and 172 yards through the air, while forcing 6 fumbles. That game was in Indianapolis. The Colts finished the regular season 2-4 while the Bears finished the season off 4-2. The bottom line is, the Colts gave up huge rushing games all year long, while the Bears have dominated teams on the ground, while taking big chances off of play action through the air. Rex Grossman has dealt with the pressure of big games well, while it’s Peyton Manning that has looked like a frustrated young quarterback for much of post season play. The Colts don’t have a rushing attack that can force the Bears to respect the ground game, leaving plenty of defensive backs to give Manning trouble. If this game comes down to special teams, the Bears get the nod over the Colts, as Devin Hester is the most electrifying player on either team. With their will to win in tact, he Bears should win this game easily.

An Argument for the Colts

The Bears have proven over t the latter half of the season, including the playoffs, that they can’t stop the pass adequately; So how will Chicago limit a team that has Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison at the receiving positions, with Peyton Manning throwing the pig skin? Answer: They won’t. Manning finally found his passing touch with the game on the line against the Patriots. Peyton, who is often touted as the best passer in the game, finally finds himself in the Super Bowl, and he won’t fumble the snap in this one. With Dallas Clark stepping up in the playoffs, Manning has too many weapons for a Bears defense that has had trouble stopping quality passers all season long (as even Drew Brees tossed for over 350 yards against the Bears). The Colts dominated time of possession all season long, and hold that title over the Bears as well. Indy is 9-4-1 ATS recently, when playing on grass. While many people like to give the Bears the nod in special teams this week, they must be forgetting a certain kicker that was acquired before this season began. Adam Vinitieri anyone? Yes, he just happens to be the most clutch kicker in the game. I’m sure Devin is fast and shifty, but Adam has won a playoff game or two, not to mention a Super Bowl championship. Devin who? And I know Chicago has picked up yards all season long, but Indy is much better than the Bears in that category, and when they get to the red zone, unlike the Bears, the Colts score at an alarming rate. Many people will question the Colts defense coming in, but how can you do that with the way they’ve played in the playoffs, when defense matters most? Sure, the Colts gave up 157 rushing yards per game during the regular season, but this time of year is anything but regular, and the Colts, in turn, have stepped right up. In each of their playoff games, they didn’t give up 100 yards, holding Larry Johnson and the Chiefs to 42 yards on the ground, giving up only 83 yards to the smash mouth Raven rushing game, and only 93 yards to the two headed monster rushing attack of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney. Now that’s a run defense. And how can the Bears 13 win regular season convince anyone? As they only played 4 playoff teams the entire year. And it’s hard to believe the Bears can slow Manning, Reggie, Marvin, and Dallas when they gave up over 200 passing yards per game to the poor passing attacks in the NFC, not to mention 550 yards in two playoff games. Don’t let the hype of the Bears defense deceive you, the Colts have outplayed them defensively throughout the post season race to the Super Bowl. And that, my friends, should be the difference.
Lucky Lester’s Super Bowl Take – 1 Stat Says It All

Many believe quarterback play will decide this game, while others believe the team with the best running attack will take the rings home. Others claim the best defense will decide the Super Bowl, and some even go as far to say big plays on special teams will help crown a winner. However, if I had to pick one single stat that I all but guarantee to go to the winner of the game, I would choose Time of Possession. And that’s one of the main reasons I’m taking the Colts. Because, sure, the Bears have a wonderful defense. Great players, great speed, and strength up front. But Peyton Manning can thread a needle with the best of them, and his three main targets know how to get open. The Colts will run the ball plenty on Sunday, but their key to controlling the ball, and the clock, will rest on the accurate dump down passing of Mr. Manning. He knows how to get first downs, and he can hit a 7 yard stop pattern with the best of them, something that will hurt the Bears early and often. The longer Chicago’s defense sits in their stance waiting for Peyton to make a change, and snap the ball, the more they’ll struggle to stay rejuvenated. This struggle will tire the Bears defensive front, making the game come easier to Indy. While the Bears possess a healthy rushing attack, Rex’s inability to be consistent on easy throws will hurt the Bears attempts to control the clock, in turn, helping the Colts win the game. That’s my take, one stat line should decide it all, and my money’s on Peyton to get it
done!

The Bet

Take the Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) over the Chicago Bears, in Miami. This is one time that the great offence will trump the great defense, and finally we can stop hearing people talk about Peyton Manning not winning a Super Bowl. The line has fallen a bit, from 7 to 6.5, which makes the Colts that much more attractive to my betting senses. The Colts beat the Bears 35-24 as a late score puts the game out of reach in Miami.