Ask Papa Weimer #1 – 2008 Pre-Season

This is the section where you ask me the questions. I may be old and I may be stingy, but you can bet your balls that my fantasy advice will steer you in the right direction. With some new pills and a nice little workout regimen that includes a couple of hours a day with my new fiancé I’m feeling better than ever before. HA! Let the games begin… You know the program, grip it and rip it, ask it and I’ll answer it – send your questions via email to papaweimer50@hotmail.com and this old fart will respond as soon as possible. Pre-Season games start this Sunday, so indeed, the season is beginning.

JJ from Cincinnati says, “Hey Papa, it’s nice to see you’re back in the game this year, and I can’t wait to get your answers. It begins and ends with my Bengals, and I’m just wondering, do they have a chance to put up big offensive numbers this season? Which rookie receiver do you like the most and is Rudi worth rounding up?”

JJ – I’m actually liking the Bengals value in early mocks and pre-season drafts. Chad Johnson seems to be slipping to Round 3 in almost every situation, which I think is a great value for a guy like him, even if he isn’t all that consistent. The same goes for TJ, he’s slipping to Round 3 as well. In a league where passing is beginning to rule the world (two back offenses and tough defensive rules) TJ and Chad in Round 3 are great deals. Carson Palmer has really slipped despite having a solid season in an overall down year for the Bengals. Cincinnati will have to throw a lot, because regardless of their rookie and free agent selections, they won’t be a dominant defensive force – you can bet on that. Carson is a 4000 yard 28-30 touchdown guy this year, and right now he’s going in the 5th or 6th round. I like his upside, and think he’s one of the best signal callers in the game. The Bengals aren’t the offensive force that people think they are – but they do get in scoring position a lot. I think they will put up nice numbers overall, but they’ll struggle to outscore opponents at a playoff positioning tilt. They have a chance though, no doubt about that. As for Rudi, I’m not sold on this guy yet. Last year he ran a lot like Shaunna Alexander and that’s just tough for me to stomach. He gained some weight, and that’s a good sign, if, and only if he didn’t gain too much. He’s a risk, but in Round 5 or 6 he might be worth it. Remember, he did put up 1300+ yards and 12 touchdowns in 3 straight season, and it’s not like he’s 30 yet. Good luck!

Piccadilly Circus in Pullman says, “I’ve got three quickies for you; do your best! 1- Does Ronnie Brown really fall to the 4th or 5th round as a nice 3rd running back, or is he going to knockout expectations? 2- Is it just me or are quarterbacks getting picked earlier than ever this year? 3- I’m looking for a running back that I can plunder after round 3 that just might shock the world with a brilliant season… got one for me?

Let me start by saying, how did you get a name like that? It must be a nickname, but even so, you’ve got some explaining to do. For your 3 deep thinkers, I have 3 quick answers. Ronnie Brown is a great get in Round 4 or 5 – he will indeed crush expectations. Ricky Williams is back, and he looks good, but Ronnie will get just about 20 touches in Miami and I love his chances to do well. He’s had a long time to recover from his Week 7 knee injury and he’ll pick it up quickly. Quarterbacks are screaming off draft boards everywhere, and if you put your ear to big ocean shell you can hear thousands of fantasy owners’ seasons flushing down the toilet. Don’t be that guy Piccadilly! Break the mold – RB, WR, RB, WR, RB, WR! 6 rounds – 6 steals! For your sneak attack in Round 3-6, I have two guys that fit the mold. Mike Turner and Reggie Bush. I love Mike’s game, and he’ll be perfect in Atlanta. The Falcons will be better and more balanced offensive this season, and Turner will do more damage than experts are predicting. He could batter defenses in the NFC South to the tune of a 1300 yard 12 TD season. He’s a beast. Reggie Bush is my sneaky runner of 2008. He’s better than people give him credit for, and now in his 3rd season he’ll start to show it. He’s not your normal back, but it’s very possible that he produces numbers similar to Brian Westbrook’s averages, and look at the history, that ain’t bad!

Jeremiah the Bull in San Francisco says, “I have to choose between Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Reggie Bush, and Ronnie Brown in my 2 man keeper league. I’m thinking Frank and Reggie, but I’m willing to be tricked into taking Larry instead of a runner – feel free to sway me! I’m thinking twice because we can start only 2 RBs and 3 WRs.”

Just the Bull? Not the Bullfrog? Well, you are still alright with me. I can see your thinking with two solid backs, but I’m glad you through in the starting options, because Larry Fitz, in a league in which you start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs, is a great option to have – especially in the keeper format. I would take Fitz for sure, because he’s going to be a star and a #1 target as long as he’s on the field, and his hands and size are so great that he’s a consistent red-zone threat. Now if the Cards could only realize that Kurt Warner gives fantasy owners all the love they can handle, and Leinart is just a Heisman winner. Anyway, that leaves you with Gore or Reggie, and even though Mike Martz is an evil running game killer, I think Frank is great enough in the receiving game to make him a Marshall Faulk type guy. Gore is fast and powerful and he can reel in the ball. San Francisco sure can’t throw the ball, but I would hold onto your hometown runner – he’s the only think that team has going for them. Larry Fitz and Frank Gore – stick with those two studs.

Billy in Alaska says, “I’m in a pretty expensive keeper league and I have the choice of keeping my college pick from last season (Jonathan Stewart) and losing my 10th round pick in the re-draft or just keeping the pick. I think Stewart is worth it – what do you think? We keep 2 guys every season, if that helps…”

Billy – keep Stewart, he’s a stud in the making and he’s definitely worth a 5th or 6th round pick, so losing a 10th is a great deal. You may not keep him around next season (depending on your keepers) but in the re-draft this year you could grab DeAngelo Williams in the 7th or 8th round and then you’d have a sure thing starting running back with upside regardless of who wins the job. I like Stewart a lot, think he’s the best running back in the ’08 draft, but Williams has solid upside as well, so make sure you grab him. Getting a sure thing starter with an 8th and a 10th is a great deal, so don’t pass it up!

Super Bowl XLII Free Pick

So, like everyone and their mother predicted, the Patriots will be the favorites in the Super Bowl. Like nobody in their right mind predicted, the New York Football Giants will try to finish off the Patriots historic run by running away with the super Bowl Trophy. This is how I see the game going on Sunday.
Sunday’s Games…

New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-11.5):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00pm EST: Bodog)

Excuse me if I’m a “good game party pooper” but if you’ve watched as many Super Bowls as I have, you’ve realized that these Super Games aren’t usually that close. Sure, lately they’ve gone right down to the wire, but that’s an even bigger reason to expect a blowout of one kind or another. If the Giants are the team that comes out on top of a blowout, I will seriously reconsider this “job” and look into building cakes instead. What am I saying, you ask? This is how it’s going to be; the Giants might take the ball down and hit up a field goal, but after that the Patriots are going to be a dominant force with no sense of respect or tact toward a Giant team that has been trying to think happy thoughts all week long. When Plaxico Burress put his 23-17 prediction out for everyone to see, Tom Brady gave a sincere laugh. You know why? Because he’s seen himself play a couple terrible games this season, and in every single one they scored more than 17 points. Consider this; In Week 15 Tom played like a rookie. He completed just 14-27 passes, tossed an interception, and didn’t have one touchdown pass on the day. By normal standards that was bad, by his standards, that 51.4 quarterback rating was about 30 points lower than any rating he’d had all season. That wasn’t just a bad day, that was a terrible day. How many points did they score in their worst game of the year? 20. And was that game smack dab in the middle of an ice storm? Yes. So, as you can imagine, Tom’s laugh was sincere. Not only that, but if Plax said that right to my face, I’d laugh and point at his silly goatee. To sum this thing up… The Patriots are going to win 38-14, because that’s what they do. They started the season that way, and they’ll end the season that way. Elly will go back to being the mistake prone junky that everyone loves to gawk, and Tom will remain the hot-model-dating, mans-man, Super Bowl, Super Hero as the Pats do the unthinkable and go undefeated. All the while, eliminating Don Shula and the rest of the undefeated Miami Dolphins of yester year from those terrible interviews right around Week 9 every NFL season. Thank God!

NFL Playoffs – Conference Championship

One of the best Sunday’s in all of sports. Personally, I like this weekend more than the Super Bowl in most cases, but with the possibility of a Packers/Patriots Big Game, I can’t help but look ahead to that match-up. You can bet, that regardless of my picks, I’ll be rooting for the Patriots and Packers to meet up at the Last Dance – Perfection versus a perfect old quarterback, gotta love it. Here are my Free Picks for the NFC and AFC Championships.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots (-14):
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Unlike the Jaguars, I don’t think the Chargers are one of the Best 5 teams in the NFL. However, what I think doesn’t seem to matter in the swing of things, as the Chargers have maneuvered their way into the Final Four – quite a run for a team that didn’t finish the game with either their starting running back (LT, one of, if not the best player in the game) or their starting quarterback (Phillip Rivers, two great games in a row). They won against the Colts with their defense, but what it really came down to was momentum. After Marvin Harrison fumbled the ball with the Colts driving to score, Indy never got mo back. I don’t think momentum will find San Diego in this game. The Patritos have won 17 of their 17 games this season, already – that has never happened before. But this Patriots team plays best when opponents get them ready, and LT’s comments from last years’ playoff meeting with the Pats, as well as his blabber before this years’ matchup, has New England geared for a big win in front of their home-town fans. Believe it, a big win is on the way.

New York Giants (+7) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

People will see the score from this game earlier in the year and insist that the Packers killed the Giants early. That just wasn’t the case. The Giants were up at half time 10-7 and down 13-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter. After that, the Packers received a couple gift turnovers from the Giants and did dirty work with them, scoring three straight touchdowns to put the game way out of reach, accumulating a 35-13 score in the process. I sure think the Packers will come out of Green Bay with a victory, but I don’t think it will be as easy as 35-13. I expect Ryan Grant to have another big day, this time going heads up against the team that cut him earlier in the season. He should be thankful though, that cut job looks like it gave him the chance he needed to become a rich man in this league. Watch out for cold weather, Ellie Manning has shrinkage in the fingers when it gets cold, and he just can’t hold onto or throw the ball all that well. This game is a tough one for me to pick, I like the Pats -14 a whole heck of a lot more, but if I had to choose, I’d take the Giants +7, which means a lot, because I can’t stand those Football Giants.

2007 Divisional Playoffs Review

2-2 Last week. As it turns out, my 3 underdog to 1 favorite was a good ratio, but I just had to change the Packers and the Colts around to get optimal results, oh well, such is the way the cookie crumbles. This is what happened.

Saturday’s Games…

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Green Bay Packers: LOSS
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

As it turned out, Brett called on the football gods to toss snow upon this game, which allowed his team to throw snowballs around and get into their comfort zone, while the Hawks just flew farther and farther away. Seattle started out the game with two gift fumbles from Ryan Grant, and all of a sudden they were up 14-0. Even I knew that wasn’t going to last, stating, “This is the worst thing that could happen to the Seahawks.” They didn’t have to fight very hard for their big lead, and everyone knew the Packers weren’t going to give up. The Hawks didn’t even get close to covering, and if it weren’t for two fumbles down in the Packers own zone, Seattle probably doesn’t put up a touchdown on the day. It all came down to 3rd down, as Seattle would play great defense on 1st and 2nd only to piss away their hard work by allowing Brett to complete a long 3rd down pass, or miss a tackle, or just about anything to lose. It was hard to watch.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+15) @ New England Patriots: WIN
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

“15 points? In the playoffs? Yeah, it might happen, but right now I think the Jaguars are one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL, and I’d take any single one of those teams and 15 points against the Patriots. I like New England, and think the Patriots passing attack could do a number on the Jaguars defensive backs, but likewise, the Jaguars will put enough ground power into their offensive attack to put up points on the Patriots. In the end, I think this game will easily go over the total, and will finish within two touchdowns, making the Jags a winner in New England against the spread. However, I don’t plan on seeing the Patriots lose this game, thus 17-0 is just a duke it out, tough game with the Jags away from coming true. The only thing keeping me away from putting a lot of money on this game is what the Patriots did to the Steelers. However, I picked the Pats over the Steelers, and that was because they are prone to mistakes. The Jaguars won’t make as many mistakes this week.” (Me) I think I said it pretty well, and the only thing I got wrong was the Jaguars run game getting stymied. I figured they’d have a nice day against the Pats. Either way, this game finished over my total (49) and covered easily. Tied at half time, and down only a score and a two point conversion in the 4th quarter, I think the Jags will prove to be the toughest test the Pats face on their way to a Super Bowl win.

Sunday’s Games…

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5): LOSS
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

“After having terrible luck with a 4th down interception and fumble that gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a second chance last season, the Chargers get to try their chances out in Indianapolis this time around, against the second powerhouse in the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts. San Diego pulled the monkey of their collective back by taking down the Titans in a pretty ugly game last week. The key to the win was Phillip Rivers finally getting the job done when his team needed him the most. However, Rivers won’t complete those same passes against a healthy and fast Colts secondary. Rivers threw ducks in San Diego last week, and they were complete, sometimes for touchdowns. This week, those will be intercepted. If the Colts stop LT, they’ll stop the Chargers, and take this game with relative ease. I just have a feeling that the Colts are indeed going to walk away with this one.” (Me) Nice feeling, jackass! The Colts stopped LT early, but still got stooped. Phillip Rivers had an even better game this time around, but he got hurt, and then Billy Volek led the Chargers down for the game winning touchdown. Weird game for the Colts, I almost got the feeling that they might take this one late, but after the Rivers’ injury, they just looked like they shut it down, expecting to just get the win. They weren’t in a hurry at all, and a late dropped pass ended the game for them. I couldn’t have been more wrong about this one.

New York Giants (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

“Alright, I’m taking the Giants. I know I’ve been criticizing them, calling them “the worst team in the playoffs” but the last two weeks of solid play has me convinced that they’ll play close with the Cowboys. Not only have they been good, but once again, the Cowboys are looking mediocre coming into the playoffs. Tony Romo and his offense hasn’t been hitting the gas of late, and maybe they’re just holding back for the big show, but I’m not comfortable with them right now. The Giants defense has played very tough, and Eli Manning hasn’t been doing things to kill their chances. I still think the Cowboys win this one, but by no more than a touchdown.” (Me) Those who follow me know, there’s nothing I like more than having the Cowboys lose and covering the spread on that game. I like Romo, really, I do, but it wasn’t his fault. His receivers dropped a bunch of balls, and in the end, the Giants pass rush was just too much for Dallas’s offensive line. Good game, though. Marion Barber is a beast, they should have given it to him 30 times.

NFL Free Picks – Playoffs ROUND 2

I was 3-1 last week! The divisional playoffs roll forward, as the Packers and Cowboys host the NFC contenders and the Colts and Patriots stay at home to host the AFC wild card winners. It should be a great week, nothing but the best in the Final 8. Underdogs galore.

Saturday’s Games…

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I think the Seahawks have the best chance to pull an upset during Week 2 of the playoffs, and honestly, I think they’re about 50-50. Seattle and Green Bay are very similar – they both throw the ball when push comes to shove, and despite a few good games on the ground, they both remain pass-first football teams. The Hawks don’t play all that well on the road, but their rivalry with the Packers makes this a little more than just a road playoff game. Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Holmgren both spent time in Green Bay, and Mike’s time as head coach produced numerous playoff appearances and a Packer Super Bowl win. Mike gave Brett his NFL start. With both Mike and Brett’s careers winding down, this game has so much on the line for both parties. It seems as though Seattle is just starting to flower, while the Packers have been winning games all season long. If the Seahawks can continue to pressure the quarterback, the Hawks could easily win this game. Either way, there’s too much value with the Hawks getting 9 points, I’ll take the road dog.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+15) @ New England Patriots:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

15 points? In the playoffs? Yeah, it might happen, but right now I think the Jaguars are one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL, and I’d take any single one of those teams and 15 points against the Patriots. I like New England, and think the Patriots passing attack could do a number on the Jaguars defensive backs, but likewise, the Jaguars will put enough ground power into their offensive attack to put up points on the Patriots. In the end, I think this game will easily go over the total, and will finish within two touchdowns, making the Jags a winner in New England against the spread. However, I don’t plan on seeing the Patriots lose this game, thus 17-0 is just a duke it out, tough game with the Jags away from coming true. The only thing keeping me away from putting a lot of money on this game is what the Patriots did to the Steelers. However, I picked the Pats over the Steelers, and that was because they are prone to mistakes. The Jaguars won’t make as many mistakes this week.

Sunday’s Games…

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

After having terrible luck with a 4th down interception and fumble that gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a second chance last season, the Chargers get to try their chances out in Indianapolis this time around, against the second powerhouse in the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts. San Diego pulled the monkey of their collective back by taking down the Titans in a pretty ugly game last week. The key to the win was Phillip Rivers finally getting the job done when his team needed him the most. However, Rivers won’t complete those same passes against a healthy and fast Colts secondary. Rivers threw ducks in San Diego last week, and they were complete, sometimes for touchdowns. This week, those will be intercepted. If the Colts stop LT, they’ll stop the Chargers, and take this game with relative ease. I just have a feeling that the Colts are indeed going to walk away with this one.

New York Giants (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

Alright, I’m taking the Giants. I know I’ve been criticizing them, calling them “the worst team in the playoffs” but the last two weeks of solid play has me convinced that they’ll play close with the Cowboys. Not only have they been good, but once again, the Cowboys are looking mediocre coming into the playoffs. Tony Romo and his offense hasn’t been hitting the gas of late, and maybe they’re just holding back for the big show, but I’m not comfortable with them right now. The Giants defense has played very tough, and Eli Manning hasn’t been doing things to kill their chances. I still think the Cowboys win this one, but by no more than a touchdown.

2007 Wild Card Weekend Review

2-2 after one week, lets see if I can’t get this thing going and turn my .500 record into big winners all the way to the Super Bowl – this is how Week 1 churned out.

Saturday’s Games…

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

“I just don’t think the Redskins will pull the upset here. Many people forget that this is one of Seattle’s most talented teams. They pass the ball a ton, and do so very accurately and efficiently. Also, their defense is what really impresses me. With Patrick Kearney and Julian Peterson bringing pressure, Washington’s beat up offensive line will have to pull magic tricks to give Todd Collins enough time. This game will be close, but I’m taking the Hawks to win by 7-10 points in Seattle.” (Me) As it turns out, Kearney and company were just too much for the offensive line from Washington. Collins didn’t have the time he needs to make things happen, and thus he was intercepted a couple times, giving the Seahawks opportunity to put points on the board defensively. The Hawks are playing solid ball right now, the question is, can they keep it going?

Jacksonville Jaguars (Even) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)

“The Steelers had a solid year, but fell off at the end, so much so that they couldn’t find a way to skip the Jaguars in Round 1. I like the Jaguars to win by 7-14 points in this one.” (Me) As it turns out, my prediction was right up until the last 12 minutes of the game. The Jaguars were looking dominant, but the Steelers stormed back to take the lead off of 19 straight 4th quarter points. They weren’t ready to give up, and they’d been there before. Still, it was their lack of running prowess and inability to hold onto the ball in the 1st half that ended the Steelers’ season. David Garrard didn’t have a great game, throwing two picks and almost single handily allowing the Steelers back in the game. Then, on 4th and 2, Garrard ran for 30 yards, setting the Jags up for their game winning field goal and their first playoff win in a long time.

Sunday’s Games…

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)

I was just dead-wrong about this one. I expected Eli to play terrible and he was solid. I expected the Bucs to come out hard with the home-field behind them, and really, they played the last 3 quarters as if they didn’t belong in the playoffs. This was my only big miss of the week, and a big part of it has to be my annoyance with the Giants during the season. However, New York is playing good football right now, and if they continue to hold onto the ball, they’ll go toe to toe with anyone in the NFC.

Tennessee Titans (+10) @ San Diego Chargers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

“Using a tough defense and a heavy dosage of run plays, I like the Titan’s chances to finish within 10 of the Chargers in San Diego.” (Me) I ended up wrong about this one, but tell me you would bet the Chargers -10 against Tennessee again and I’ll call you crazy. San Diego was down 6-0 at half, and though I still thought they’d win, I was almost sure I was going to cover with my 10 points and the Titans. But, Tennessee was shut out, and the Chargers did just enough to cover with two touchdowns in the last 17 minutes. Games like this are tough, and I knew it was going to come down to the last few minutes, and spread-points. A tough loss for me, but I hope you can still see why I took the Titans, and why the value was with the away team. Sometimes you just lose.

Free NFL Playoff Picks – Week 1

The playoff season enters the fray, and I pick my winners for everyone to see… Enjoy the best football of the season!

Saturday’s Games…

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I can’t say enough about the Redskins’ push to the playoffs. They had to beat some good teams that had a lot on the line, and all the while they just pushed through injuries and problems to find a way to succeed. Now they get to fly all the way across the country to play one of the best home-teams in the entire league. I know from personal experience that no stadium is louder than Seattle’s 12th man, and the weather isn’t always festive either. Do the Redskins have a chance? You bet. They are playing a Seattle team that was up and down all year, and they have gallons of old momentum rallying along side them. However, I just don’t think the Redskins will pull the upset here. Many people forget that this is one of Seattle’s most talented teams. They pass the ball a ton, and do so very accurately and efficiently. Also, their defense is what really impresses me. With Patrick Kearney and Julian Peterson bringing pressure, Washington’s beat up offensive line will have to pull magic tricks to give Todd Collins enough time. This game will be close, but I’m taking the Hawks to win by 7-10 points in Seattle.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Even) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)

Last time the Steelers stumbled into the playoffs they pulled of upset after upset to bring home a set of championship rings – not this time, no way. The Jaguars are the better team in this match-up, which can be realized by their pick em status for Saturday’s game in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars are playing as well as anyone in the league right now, and the last team I would want to be is the Steelers minus Willie Parker. I know the Steelers have the home court advantage here, but how much is that really going to help? The Jaguars can smother the run, and pound the ball down your throat all game long – plus, they just don’t make mistakes. You’d think that David Garrard is due, but that thinking just hasn’t panned out quite yet. The Steelers had a solid year, but fell off at the end, so much so that they couldn’t find a way to skip the Jaguars in Round 1. I like the Jaguars to win by 7-14 points in this one.

Sunday’s Games…

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)

At least the Bucs will be rested. This game will put to test my belief that resting players is the wrong decision more often than not. But maybe this team needed rest. They play physical football on both sides of the ball, relying on good feet and precise schemes, intelligence and experience to get them in the right place at the right time. Tampa doesn’t allow easy scores, and with that, they might be a very tough match-up for the Giants. New York doesn’t excel at putting together long drawn out drives, and that is because Eli Manning doesn’t have the accuracy required for such a style. Not only that, but New York played the game of their lives last week, they’re bound to play like donkeys this time around. I haven’t liked the Giants all year, and I think they are the worst playoff team there is. We’ll see how I look after Sunday.

Tennessee Titans (+10) @ San Diego Chargers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I think this game will turn one way or another depending on one thing, and no, I’m not talking about Vince Young’s health. I’m more concerned about Albert Haynesworth’s hamstring. If Al can play a majority of the snaps at his healthy run-stuffing level, the Titans have a chance to force more than a couple Charger mistakes in the passing game. If Al doesn’t play, or is limited because of his legs, San Diego might just run roughshod on Tennessee’s defenders. From the looks of Al last week, I’m guessing that he plays this Sunday, and the Titans go back to their covering ways of yester-year. I also think that Vince Young will play – he’s gotten this team this far, they need to trust in him. Using a tough defense and a heavy dosage of run plays, I like the Titan’s chances to finish within 10 of the Chargers in San Diego.

Week 17 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Yet another week with a solid Elite Pick section, this time going up 12 units…. However, I didn’t do so well with my bottom half, but did enough to finish even over the final week.

Saturday’s Game…

New England (-13) @ N.Y. Giants: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)

Each team played their best all game long. I never really saw that coming from the Giants. I hope it comes back to haunt them next week. I’ll tell you what though, they looked pretty damn good on Saturday Night, it’s probably the best they’ve played all season long. If they can run like that and cover like that, they will be a handful for any team in the NFC – that is my honest opinion – and I think they are the most overrated team in the whole 12 team playoff group.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

That extra point just did it for me. But this game was going to be close, and that’s why I didn’t break the bank with this bet. It was one of the 3 Free Picks I actually won, what can you do? The Eagles got a big game through the air from Donovan McNabb, and many wonder if that will be D’s last game in the city that booed him, loved him, and booed him again. Ah, good old Philadelphia. All I know is, this game was way to close to bet a bunch one, but I’ll take the small win when I can get it. I knew 5Dimes +9 spread was going to help me out.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

This game was close all the way down to the last few minutes. The Panthers were up 1 for most of the 4th quarter, and I thought I was going to walk away with a win despite Tampa resting what seemed to be their entire team for the entire freaking game. Carolina put a late touchdown over the goal line and they took the game by 8. There’s a reason I wasn’t a big fan of this game. The Panthers still proved to me that they can barely beat a team of back-ups, and the Bucs still proved that they could care less about the last couple games of the regular season. Blast!

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I flat out missed this game. I thought the Lions would play with a little more want-to in Green Bay, and they just stunk it up from the get go. The Lions were back to turning the ball over, and Brett Favre threw 2 early touchdowns and was 9 for 11 throwing the ball early. You could tell, he wanted to win, and he wanted to put on a show for the home fans. Does he know something we don’t? Favre’s 2 scores gave him 28 on the season, marking the 10th time he’s thrown for 27 or more touchdowns during his career. That’s magic. It was the first time he’s thrown more than 20 in his last 3 seasons. The Lions sucked again. Nice way to end your season, fellas.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

Shaun Alexander had his best day that I can remember, rushing 8 times for 31 yards and a touchdown… That’s almost 4 yards a carry – wow! The Hawks didn’t play much defense, as they chose to rest up at that position. Either way, this game came down to the last few plays, even having the Hawks recover an onside kick with just under a minute left. It was nullified by an off-sides penalty, and they didn’t get the next one. This marks one of the many times I’ve missed the Hawks games this season. The Falcons got a great game (4 TDs) from Chris Redman, as the whole offense played pretty well. Another close game that I just missed.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6): loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jets were up 7 for most of the game until Brodie Croyle stepped out of sucking for just long enough to toss a touchdown pass to Jeff Webb with under 3 minutes to play. At that point, I knew my covering dreams were over. Sure enough, the Jets came down and kicked a field goal in overtime, and I missed another close one. Dang it!

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Cardinals came out and obliterated the Rams early and often. Kurt Warner threw for 3 touchdowns, which gave him 27 on the season. The old man obviously still has some success in that old arm of his, 27 scores is no laughing number. Anyway, the Rams just didn’t come to play, rolling around like a team looking for a better draft pick. The loss gave them just 3 wins on the year, and a sure-fire #2 overall selection. So, instead of being tied with four other teams with a 4-12 mark, they get to have #2 all to themselves. Sounds like a brilliant reason to lose to me, if they were trying to or not. The win also got the Cardinals to 8-8, and yet another off-season of, “The Seahawks better look out, because the Cardinals are on the rise, they are everyone’s sleeper to find the playoffs next season… blah, blah, blah…” Maybe I’ll even write some of that stuff?

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The 49ers didn’t roll over, and the Browns didn’t need to win this game at all. But for some reason, 10-6 feels a lot better than 9-7, and the Browns rolled out with their starters and did enough damage to cover without much trouble (20-7). Derek Anderson did get hurt though, and while it might not be much, Brady Quinn looked good in relief. Will the Browns re-sign Anderson and pay starter money to two quarterbacks? It should be interesting during the off-season, Anderson had one heck of a season.

Elite Picks for Week 17 – Up 12 Units! – Another good week with my elite picks!

Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

Baltimore came out with a lot more intensity than I expected, maybe they knew something I didn’t. Looking back on it, maybe they had heard their coach would be canned, and they were so damn excited they took it to the Steelers, who still had something to win. That being said, the Steelers are looking weak heading into the playoffs, and they don’t get a very kind opening game as Jacksonville comes to town.

NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Broncos came out and smacked the Vikes around a little bit, ending Minnesota’s playoff chances even before they were eliminated with the Redskins win over the Cowboys. Minnesota’s run game sputtered down the stretch, and everyone knows that their passing game wasn’t going to get them any wins in December.

NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

“The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish.” Apparently I was right about this one. The Chargers kept most of their starters in for the duration of the game, and even Norv Turner was quoted saying that if the game was on the line late, LT would be in until the end. They didn’t need him that late, as the Chargers took over in the 2nd half.

NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Saints are brutal, just like I thought, and Kyle Orton is a winner, just look at his numbers. The Bears need to get back to what won them games, and I get the feeling they’ll figure it out next year. They beat me here, those blasted Bears.

NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)

One of my biggest bets of the year panned out, despite many worries late into the game. Even without Vince Young, the Titans had enough to take down the Colts backups by 6 points, covering the spread by a mere point and a half. A wins a win, but how do a bunch of backups put up that kind of a fight against a team that needs a win to get in?

NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

“The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.” This one seemed easy, and it ended up being exactly that. The Jaguars just weren’t trying to win, and despite a lot of points on the board from their backup offense, their 2nd string defense couldn’t stop a Texans team that looked motivated to find .500.

NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)

“Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk.” The Bengals made it interesting, giving up 15 points in the 4th quarter, but they pulled through with relative ease, taking down Miami by 13 points.

NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)

I get this funny feeling that the Cowboys will regret not trying harder to ouste the Redskins before the playoffs began. This Washington team has a lot of momentum coming into the playoffs, and if they can get past their first playoff test, they’ll really be a team to reckon with. This was a nice win.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 17

Last Week of the season – I had a nice Pay Picks week last week, but struggled with my free plays once again. This week looks a little more simple, and I expect a winning system out of both my free and pay picks. That is why I’m just going to publish them all for you to see. Good luck, and lets go out with a bang!

Saturday’s Game…


New England (-13)
@ N.Y. Giants:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)

What can I say? Maybe I’m a guy that wants to see the Patriots go undefeated so I don’t have to ever listen to interviews of the “perfect Dolphins” ever again – hell, I’ll even admit it, yeah, I am that guy, and I don’t want to hear what Don Shula has to say. But I am also a smart guy that sees a Giants team that will almost surely crumble under pressure anyway, and when they feel themselves doing exactly that, will most likely take their free get out of the game card and begin to rest their starters. The Giants aren’t good, and the Patriots are one of the best teams of all time. I don’t see New England walking into this game and struggling at all. This tank of a team will roll into the post season with a big win on Saturday Night.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Eagles are playing well, and the Bills have struggled down the stretch, but I’m not so sure the Eagles will come out and play with passion in the final week of a season where they aren’t competing for anything but a win. In fact, I’m willing to bet that the Bills make a strong push at winning this game, despite the way McNabb and this offense have been playing. Trent Edwards and this group of young Bills are building toward next season, and a big win to end the year is always a perfect way to do that. At 5Dimes, the line is 9, and that is way too much for an inconsistent Eagles team that doesn’t have anything to play for.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The Bucs really stunk it up last week against the 49ers, but the Panthers are bad, and I think even without Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway, the Bucs will do enough to down the horrible Panthers. Steve Smith is finally getting the ball a little bit for the Panthers, but the Bucs have good smart defensive players all over the field, and I think they’ll shut down the Panthers in Tampa.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I just don’t think Green Bay’s starters will play much of this game, despite the overall feeling that the Packers need to end the season on a good note after struggling mightily against the Bears last week. Green Bay is already in, they already have a bye set up, and even though Brett will probably play a couple quarters in this game, I just think the Lions really want to get to .500 after failing to make the playoffs despite a great start. Jon Kitna is a solid quarterback, and a leader that rarely allows his team to give up. They’ll play hard in Green Bay, and probably pull out a win to end the year.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

I’m sorry to say it (actually I don’t care that much at all) but the Falcons are a dead franchise right now. They have a coach that won’t be there next year. A group of quarterbacks that will almost surely be dedicated to backup duty next year. A bunch of veterans that could be cut or traded in the off-season, and a complete organization that lost out on hiring Bill Parcells and has no idea what they are going to do moving forward. I know that Hawks don’t have much to play for, but I have to be honest, Seneca Wallace and the Hawks backup players are a group I’d favor over Atlanta’s lost team. And honestly, I get the feeling that the Hawks are going to play their starters longer than many think. This game seems too easy to me. That’s what scares me. Just for careful’s sake, I’m laying just a medium bet on this game this week – I’m not the best at picking Seattle games anyway, but I just can’t stay away from this one.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

This is a weak play, if a play at all. But since I pick them all, I’m rolling with Chad Pennington in this one. He’s pretty much competing for a job somewhere else next year, and he’s accurate and competitive enough to give the Chiefs some problems on Sunday. The Jets didn’t play well at all last year, but their strong push last week in a loss to Tennessee impressed me. They didn’t put up much in terms of points, but they did play strong defensively. If the Jets can effectively stop the Titans who are doing anything they can to get to the playoffs, then yeah, I think the Chiefs should be an easy win in the final week.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I like the home team in this one, but just barely. I’d like to think that Ken Whisenhunt will get his guys read to play, and Kurt Warner is still petitioning for a starting gig somewhere next season. The Cardinal play inspired football at home, and they are relatively healthy offensively and still can be solid from time to time on the defensive side of the ball. I like both these teams in the future, and think both will play a solid game, I just think the Cardinals will have more to play for and a coach that will get all that he can from them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The 49ers have played solid football over the last couple weeks, and Frank Gore seems to be healthy and running had – but the Browns have a whole heck of a lot more to win and lose on this game, and they are just that much better than San Fran, even with the Niners playing better as of late. Derek Anderson is a free agent at season’s end, and even though he’ll almost surely be back in Cleveland, you can bet he’ll want to play extra well with his future in the crosshairs. I’m expecting Cleveland to put up a bunch of points on way to this victory, if it’s in vein or not.

Elite Picks for Week 17

*4 NFL Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Ravens are done, and they’re even more upset that their lame duck head coach is back in the saddle next season. They have a bunch of playoff hungry vets that have no chance at getting to the show this season, and that has crushed this teams’ will. A lot of changes look to be coming next season, and the frustrations has already begun to show. The Steelers still need to win for playoff seeding and the right to possibly skip Jacksonville in the 1st round. Even if Big Ben doesn’t play, Charlie Batch has proven he can get the job done, and the Ravens are bad enough to make me believe he has a very good chance. Just a field goal? Yeah, I like the Steel-Show a lot, here.

*3 NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

Everybody wants to say that Denver is ready to get back and win to end the season after the whole Phillip Rivers incident last week against San Deigo, but it’s just not going to happen. The Vikings are way too physical for the Broncos defensive front, their running backs are too talented, and they need a win to get into the playoffs. They need more than just a win, but a win gives them a chance, and I believe, that after last week’s slip up to the Redskins, they’ll at least want to go out swinging. I like their chances in Denver, and think they should absolutely obliterate the Broncos on Sunday.

*5 NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish. Too much on the line for San Diego to roll over, and the Raiders aren’t good enough to halt what’s coming, even if their #1 pick, JaMarcus Russell, is getting his first start in the NFL.

*3 NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I’m not a big Saints fan, but I have to be honest, they have to beat the Bears in Chicago, right? Kyle Orton isn’t a frightening young quarterback, despite his warewolf beard. He doesn’t make as many mistakes as the other Bear quarterbacks, but I don’t think he’ll put up enough points to fight off a Saints team that actually has a small sliver of hope left. Chicago’s secondary is still a huge question mark, despite the way they played last week against Green Bay. They won’t have two great weeks in a row, they just aren’t good enough to do so.

*6 NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)

The Colts have nothing to play for and the Titans can bring pressure. Expect Indy’s starters to play very little and the Titans to win this game by a couple touchdowns. Indy’s head coach has always believed in his own way, and risking his best players to end Tennessee’s season doesn’t seem like his prerogative. Strong action here.

*3 NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.

*4 NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)

Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk. This isn’t the strongest play I have this weekend, but I like it enough to drop a few bucks on the Bengals in Miami.

Monday Night Football Game

*4 NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)

This game seems easy enough. The Cowboys are pretty much cashing in their great regular season, and leasing a first round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t need to win this game, and I don’t think we’ll see much of their 1st team talent on either side of the ball. No need to risk injury, even if it does mean strangling the playoff breath out of your rival. Todd Collins has played well since taking over for Jason Campbell, and the Redskins have dedicated their run toward the post season to their fallen teammate, Sean Taylor. They have a playoff spot to play for and a motivated group of guys ready to win. I think they’ll take this one by a couple touchdowns.