Tag Archives: Week 9 Fantasy Advice

Ask Papa Weimer Part II: Week 9 2009 Fantasy Advice

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Here’s more stuff from the last couple days, hope these questions and answers give you that last little point you need to win your match-ups this week!

Stan from San Fran writes, “Papa, I think I want to start Forte and Westbrook at RB this weekend, Devin Hester, Greg Jennings, and Mr. Marshall at WR, but I have some other options, would you go with those guys or trade them for someone on my bench: Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Walter, or Pierre Garcon – I have to start 2 RBs and 3 WRs – thanks! I think Walter is intriguing this week, what do you think?”

I think Forte could find it really tough sledding against the Cardinals this week, but Mendenhall also goes up against a very tough run defense, and Felix Jones is still just a 6-10 carry guy, so yeah, Forte and Westbrook look like your best options – tough match-ups though.

I like your receiver options, definitely with you – but check and make sure that Hester is actually playing this sunday before you make that pick – he hasn’t practiced this week and I want to say he’s looking more questionable than originally thought – if he’s out, I’d roll with Nicks and the other two guys.

As for Walter, that’s something to think about, definitely, and maybe not as much his good match-up but the fact that Owen Daniels and his 10 or so targets are game isn’t there for the rest of the year. BUt the Colts defense isn’t just the starters, it’s a scheme and an idea, and they’ve had lots of players go through there and succeed in that scheme. Still, you’re right, Walter is intriguing for sure.

And Receivers are tough, but I probably wouldn’t play him this week against the Colts. You have Marshall who has a good match-up, nicks who has a good match-up, Hester who has a good match-up, and Jennings who is a stud against a pretty bad Bucs defense. Walter is going against a Colts team minus 3 starters, sure, but without two of those guys for the first few weeks, they were still a great pass defense. I’d stick with your originals – but you’re right, Walter has some upside.

Jason 85 writes his first novel, “Papa, So this is my first time coming to you for advice, but I went 0-3 last week and looking for other advice than my regulars because I NEED TO BOUNCE BACK!! I apologize if this is overwhelming and I’m gonna warn you, I may send you some more emails…

First, I need 2 running backs: Brandon Jacobs vs SD, Ronnie Brown vs NE, Barber vs PHI, Hightower vs CHI — I like: Jacobs and Hightower

B. I need 2 RB/2 WR/1 FLEX: Crabtree/Boldin/Manningham/Malcom Floyd/Kevin Walter ——  Sproles/Tomlinson/Maroney — I like: Crabtree/Tomlinson/Maroney, thinking of Floyd/Walter/or Sproles for the rest, I dont think boldin nor manningham will perform as needed this week.

C. I need 2 running backs: Chris Johnson vs. SF, Bradshaw vs SD, Westbrook vs DAL, McCoy vs DAL, Stewart vs. NO — I like: Johnson and Bradshaw

Hope I’m not overdoing it lol. I really need that bounce back. THANKS A MIL!”

Jason, haha, by all means, send more questions if you got ’em. Hopefully I can get you some advice that helps you get some wins this weekend.

A- I would start Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown. Brown hasn’t had a big game in the last couple weeks, and I think he’s a great running back. The Dolphins should rely on him in that game. If you’re strongly against Brown, I think it’s tough to go with Hightower over Barber- Marion hasn’t rushed for over 3.6 yards per carry in his last 4 games, has been all but removed from the passing game where he’s normally a good receiver, and I’m just not sure what you’ll get from him – but at least he’s a touchdown threat and the Eagles don’t have a great run-defense. At least Hightower will be involved in the passing game, but Beanie Wells is teh better answer, and honestly I don’t see the Cardinals carrying the ball more than 20 times. Maybe Tim gets 6-10 carries. That’s not enough for me to start him.

B- I would go with Crabtree/Manningham Tomlinson/Maroney and it’s almost a coin toss, but Sproles big play ability gets the nod as the flex. I would go with Mannignham because I’m pretty sure he’s healthy, he claimed he could have played last week, and the Chargers don’t do a good job stopping the pass, I think the Giants throw the ball well this week. Sproles nor Tomlinson have a good match-up, but I still think they are your better options. The Giants aren’t likely to give up a ton of yardage to Malcom Floyd, but I can see going with him if Manningham’s status changes to doubtful or if you find out he’s not playing.

C- I like Johnson and Bradshaw as well. You can’t sit Johnson, he’s too good, and Bradshaw has a great match-up and is probably going to be used a lot against a Chargers team that should struggle to stop the speedy option in New York. Good luck this weekend, my man, hopefully you can gets a few wins!

Brian Henderson asks, “Is it to early to give up on Slaton?? I have been offered Rashard Mendenhall for Slaton. Should I do this? Thanks in advance for your time.”

Okay, so looking into this situation has been interesting. Here’s what I got on each guy.

Steve Slaton – Obviously one of the more explosive backs in the league, his burst is such that he scores touchdowns – most of his fantasy points have come from touchdowns and in the passing game – sound likes Reggie Bush – but Slaton is the better actual running back, and probably not as fast as Reggie – but both will continue to score touchdowns when given chances. That being said, Slaton hasn’t rushed for 100 yards yet this year (his highest three games are 76, 67, and 65 yards and the next best game is a 43 yard rushing day). But he also has 29 catches on 39 targets, 300+ yards receiving, and 3 receiving touchdowns). With Owen Daniels gone, it’s hard to think that Houston would just get rid of a huge chunk of their big plays and receiving prowess because he fumbled a few times to start the season, but Gary Kubiak did coach under Mike Shanahan – (you know that guy as the former running back killer, can use anyone and will extraordinaire) so you never know. Still, Daniels was a 10 target a game guy – those have to go somewhere, right? And I’m not so sure Ryan Moats is the 120+ yard 3 touchdown running back he was last week – they were playing the Bills, and the Texans did run the ball more than they had all season – I have a feeling Slaton would have gone for 150+ in that situation – but there’s obviously questions there. But Slaton has a pretty favorable rushing schedule going forward, not the best run D’s on the Texans’ schedule.

Rashard Mendenhall – On the upside, he is explosive, fast, powerful, has blocked very well and while he hasn’t been used often, he’s proven that he has very good hands (8 catches in 9 targets). He proven to be by far the more effective running back in PIttsburgh, and his upside is great. He’s also scored 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games. But look at his schedule, Broncos, Ravens twice, Bengals, Packers – and in Week 17 (if your league goes that far) he plays Miami – that’s 6 games against Top 10 run defenses (the Packers and Ravens during the playoffs – however, I’m not completely sold on Green Bay being some great run defense, they are very up and down). The Steelers haven’t run the ball very much, but you’d think they’d commit more to the run when the weather starts to rear it’s rainy, cold, head. I think Mendenhall could get 100+ yards with the benefit of 20 carries against any team in the league, but trading for him obviously means you are expecting the Steelers to run more, because besides his 1 big start against San Diego (165 yards) he’s really averaged just around 70 yards per game, but not for lack of yards per carry, he just hasn’t gotten the touches.

After everything, I think I’d stick with Steve – I just think it’s too early to give up on him. And this is coming from a guy that loves Rashard Mendenhall’s game – I’ve always thought he’d be the best running back from his class (Chris Johnson is making a case though, ha). I just think the Steelers aren’t going to stop throwing the ball too much, it’s their weakness right now – funny, their weakness is their own doing – but this is often the case – crazy life lesson… ha. Slaton is a big time risk right now, but depending on your roster, probably one worth taking – he proved to be a great second half runner last season, has easy run defenses in his future, and just lost a big time player in the offense that should give him more touches.

That’s my take. Good luck Brian.
PW

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 9 Fantasy Football Advice

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It’s been a long week already, and this damn thing is only Thursday -when will Sunday get here? A smart ass might tell me that it will be here right after Thursday and Friday get done with their business, but the nice thing about being old is you can swing and or throw things at people who are being smart asses and you basically get the “he’s old, he can get away with being a rowdy-rabble-rouser” free pass. So that three times fast. It’s a nice card to have, the “I’m old” card, it works for some many instances and really means so many things. Flirting with any good looking girl in any situation, no problem, I’m old. Yeah, it’s not all bad. But it’s true, I mean, I’ve made it this far, give a guy some credit. Plus, my memory isn’t what it once was, I can’t beat people at as many things, and not everything works all the time. But that still does. Keep it up, see if I don’t use my old person card on a left jab freebie. Okay, so you know the deal, already I’ve spent too much time polluting your eyes and minds with oldness extreme. Write in your questions to… papaweimer50@hotmail.com. I’ll answer them as promptly as possible, and if it’s useful to the masses I’ll put them up here in my weekly column. Dream big, penguins!

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David from the Midwest asks, “Should I try to get M Floyd or James Jones as a WR? What about this Moats thing? I have Slaton. Should I try to get Moats? I can’t believe they will bench Slaton especially after they lost Daniels. Is he trying to send a message? What have you been hearing?”

Boy tough deal, I’m also a Slaton owner and it’s hard to say. You’d think they wouldn’t completely give up on their second most explosive playmaker – especially after all he meant to this team going down the stretch last season – and I think he was definitely sending a message, obviously he doesn’t think Slaton is a poor player, but then again, Ryan Moats made the most of his opportunity, and it’s not like Slaton has been a stud running the ball this year. I think you and I are looking at a semi-running back by committee unless Moats’ success was due mainly to playing one of the worst defenses in the league. Obviously Slaton is a talented cat, and I agree, I couldn’t imagine he doesn’t get more than an equal share. But coaches have done crazier poop, and this Kubiak cat is from the Shanahan tree, we all know how easily that guy killed fantasy running backs. That being said, if you have an extra roster spot, Moats might be a safe play for you. I know my team is too good to get him off waivers, lots of people are ahead of me and I think he’ll be gone. As for Floyd or Jones, I actually like Jones as a player a lot more, but Floyd should be the surefire #2 in San Diego, and he has produced when given the chances. I think he’s the better option moving forward, though there’s a better player with a better skill-set that possesses all the things Floyd has (size, hands, etc) starting opposite him, in Vincent Jackson. I don’t think the Packers will use James Jones to his talents, so I’d go with Floyd and hope his increased playing time makes him a startable option.

Mike in Los Angeles types, “I have Ronnie Brown and DeAngelo Williams starting, but in my flex spot, should I start Clinton Portis, Kevin Smith, or Beanie Wells? The second flex spot is occupied by Alex Smith (with Favre on bye) – good idea to bench A. Smith and start two of the three RBs (I think not, with A. Smith vs. league’s worst pass D)?”

Thanks for the email. Thought the Titans secondary played pretty well last week in shutting down what had been a pretty efficient passing attack in Jacksonville, I’m just going to write that off as Jack Del Rio having too much input in the Jaguars offense, and continue to expect Tennessee to have trouble stopping the pass. I think Alex Smith is a good play there, especially considering the fact that quarterbacks are more of a sure thing than any other position. As for your other flex spot, I think Kevin Smith has the best match-up because the Hawks seem to struggle against physical runners, and Smith is physical. The Hawks have struggled a lot, especially with injuries, so beating them up on the ground seems like the best move. But you have to make sure Kevin Smith is playing. He got dinged up a bit last week, so check back later in the week to make sure he’s good to go. If he’s healthy, he’s the play. If not, I think I’d go with Clinton Portis and just hope and hope that the Redskins got it together during the bye week and will come out and feed their best player the ball. I don’t think Bennie Wells is a bad play, he could be solid, I just think he’s risky because with the Cardinals he could rush for 7 yards a carry but only get 5 carries – you know – because they run a circus offense. At the very least you know Washington wants to run the ball, and Atlanta’s rush defense is ranked in the bottom of the league. Hope that helps, good luck this weekend!

Bill Stanley (CUP) from Canada says, “I know I’m in Canada rocking a maple leaf and all, but I still have love for good old NFL Football – nothing quite like it. Anyway, I haven’t gotten into fantasy football yet, but I do rock a couple survivor pools. Now I’ve already gotten rid of Baltimore, Washington (crazy, eh), Green Bay, Indianapolis, Eagles, Steelers, Patriots, and Chargers – what do you think about taking Seattle at home against Detroit? Thanks in advance!”

Oh the maple leaf. You know, I can dig Canada. The universal health care, good people, hockey fools crushing skulls, even that mayonaise thing on random foods doesn’t gross me out too much – but nothing is worse than your world travelers. If there was ever a more annoying group of proud maple leaf Canadian flag representing guys, I haven’t found them. Now, you are good people, no doubt, but goodness, I’ve seen more maple leafs on 10 Canadian traveler’s bags than I’ve seen other flags on the hundreds of back-packs I’ve seen from all other countries. I got it, you guys are proud to be Canadian, you’re not from America, okay – but goodness, they’re running out of maple leaf patches! Okay, rant over, sorry, once again, appreciate hockey, good people, nice movie theaters, pretty hot girls, free health care – I can deal with the flag thing I guess. As for your answer, I think the Hawks are a ballsy pick, but they should win. I would probably go with Atlanta at home against Washington. I know the Falcons can play up and down, but they need this win bad, and they played really well against the Saints on Monday Night. This is a short week’s rest for Atlanta, but Washington is too icky to figure it out coming off a bye. Another option would be Jaguars – but again, that’s just as ballsy as Seattle, and I actually think the Chiefs could wheel an upset here if the stars align right. You can stick with Seattle, a decent choice and probably a team you won’t feel comfortable taking too often as the season moves forward – but I think Hot-Lanta is the safer pick in Week 9.