Monthly Archives: October 2008

NCAA Football Picks REVIEW: Week 7

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I finally had a terrible week, and like everyone knows, it is bound to happen some time. Before I have a huge rebound week, here’s where things went wrong this Saturday. 

Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5): Boy, Sam Bradford had 5 touchdowns passes and a gaggle of yards, but it was Texas’s ability to run the ball on short yardage situations and win the line of scrimmage that gave them this game. To my credit, Oklahoma was walking away with this one early until their best defensive player went out for the game with injury. I’m not sure how it would have ended up, but feel me on this one. 

Arizona Wildcats (-6) @ Stanford Cardinal: And Arizona falls to Stanford. Every time a school in the Pac 10 starts to separate themselves from the rest of the disgusting pack, to say, “wait, there’s a couple good teams in the Pac 10” they lose to a very bad conference opponent. This week’s losers of street credit, the Wildcats – thanks for playing boys. 

Washington State @ Oregon State (-30): YAY! A win is a win, and it’s even nicer to win when you lose so many games you can’t see stop signs because of the teary blurr. Ah, it wasn’t so bad, every once in a while you lose a week – this week was tough for Ole Lucky. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-20): TT barely won this week as upset Saturday was in everybody’s cards except the Nittany Lions – ha. Anyway, I can’t believe this game was close – tough week for me. 

LSU Tigers (+6) @ Florida Gators: The Gators showed where the talent has been going lately. Florida had way too much speed and athleticism for the Tigers and it showed on just about every play. Florida killed LSU in ever phase of the game. Tebow was back to his old self. Florida, when playing well defensively, is one of the Nation’s Top 3 teams. 

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers (+5.5): “If the Badgers proved anything last week, it’s that they play great football at home.” If they proved anything this week it’s that they can play absolutely terrible at home too, or that Penn State is going to be playing in the National Championship game – maybe both. 

Boise State Broncos (-10.5) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Boise State pulled this one out 24-7 and I get a little happiness back in my soul. 

Tulsa Hurricane (-24.5) @ Southern Methodist Mustangs: Damn good coaching. SMU almost pulled this one out, meaning that 24.5 point spread i had to cover didn’t quite make it. 

Idaho Vandals @ Fresno State Bulldogs (-34): Fresno played like absolute garbage. Nobody in college football should give up so many points to the vandals. Needless to say I was crushed by the Bulldogs in this one. 

Air Force Falcons (-10.5) @ San Diego State Aztecs: 28 unanswered 2nd half points allowed Air Force to walk away with an easy win here, giving my a much needed 4th win on the season. So it didn’t end so bad after all… Okay, it was bad, my 5 games over .500 last week went right back to even as I finished Week Seven 3-7… Ugh. Better next week.

Five for Friday

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I missed Three for Thursday, but what can you do? Heck, I missed this one too, but figured there was enough important business that went down that I should throw up 5 big ones for you to ponder before your picks and fantasy starts this Sunday. Here goes something. 

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for a Bengals team that I was looking at as a possible upset this weekend. Unfortunately that hope is squashed. There’s no way Brett Favre lets Ryan Fitzpatrick beat his Jets this weekend. That said, I think Thomas Jones becomes an even better bet as a start in Week 6. He’ll get over 20 carries for sure, as the Jets will go more to a “don’t lose” way of offense. With Fitz starting I still think Housh and Chad Johnson are decent starts. I expect them to be behind and throwing more often than not. A bad turnover day through the air can still be quite beneficial for starting receivers on that team. 

2. Matt Hasselbeck is out this week. He’s a real penguin clubber. But don’t be crushed quite yet – Julius Jones owners get ready for another 20 carries, and Seneca Wallace is a solid starting option in this league, so that opens up some doors for owners looking at a bye week fix randomly. But I wouldn’t be betting on the Hawks here. Leave them alone as a -2.5 bet please. They’ll play better defensively and they’ll keep going on offense. I like the Pack! 

3. With Brian Westbrook out for the Eagles I actually really like Correll Buckhalter. San Francisco has played better defensively this season but they aren’t a top notch group yet, and while I will never like the Eagles’ rushing schemes, CB runs hard and should be good for close to 80 yards against the Niners. Eagle receivers are a better bet too. I like LJ Smith as a guy you can likely pick up off waivers and DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett both look like they can be counted on for some fantasy points. 

4. I like me some Jason Campbell against the Rams. I think St. Louis will do everything they can to make Jason be the one beating them this weekend, and I think he’ll do exactly that. Santana Moss should have a big game and I actually like Randel El to have his highest yardage output of the season. As far as the Rams??? Your guess is as good as mine. I like Tory Holt to have a nice day, but that’s about it. 

5. Off of fantasy football for a second, I have a couple fantasy basketball sleepers for you lovely readers. Give me some Al Thornton, David Lee, Carlos Vilenueva, Jose Calderon and I’ll go win me a championship. All four of those guys will vastly outproduce their draft slot and should have huge years. David Lee is my favorite of that bunch, but Calderon is going to be special with full starter’s minutes. Dream big!

One for Wednesday

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Watch out Horse Fans: The Colts are Bad…. 

I’m sorry but the Colts are bad. I’d be worried about owning Joseph Addai and maybe even Peyton Manning – definitely Marvin Harrison. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still legit. The scarriest guy to have is Addai because you blew a Top 5 pick on him and now look at his game. Unless the Colts stop being brutal, they are always going to be playing from behind, and that doesn’t bode well for the running game. You add Dominic Rhodes to the equation and now his catches are coming down as well. The Colts offensive line is really struggling and they should really be 0-4. I think the Colts are worse than their record, and if you can pick up a nice runner for Addai, meaning if there is someone out there that loves Joseph, you might want to see what you can get – that’s my advice.

NCAA Free Football Picks: Week 7

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Well if I were taking Thursday games, my underdog romp would be put to the test – that would mean bet Clemson and UAB, though I’m not sure if UAB +18 is that good of a bet. Regardless, I’m not betting Thursday Games this week, but I have to follow the Thursday underdog card for my lean, so Clemson and UAB would be the ones if I had to pick em. Right now I don’t though, and I get to choose a couple bets to work with. Here are the ones that interest me…

Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5): I don’t think Texas is a Top 10 team in the country, I think Oklahoma is the best team we’ve got in this game – so I have to take the home team at less than a touchdown favorites. I have a feeling this could be a lot like USC/Ohio State – with the Sooners running away with it. We’ll see, certainly, but I love OK in this one. I’m not the only one though, 63% of the public is riding Sooner maroon.

Arizona Wildcats (-6) @ Stanford Cardinal: This may not be great value, but if the Wildcats play to their potential and Stanford plays to their potential, then Arizona wins this game by three touchdowns. The Wildcats are good folks, one of the top 4 teams in the Pac 10.

Washington State @ Oregon State (-30): The Cougars are so bad it’s unbelievable. Last week against a bad UCLA team the Cougars could only manage a field goal while giving up 4 scores. I don’t think Oregon State is the best value at -30, but I think they’ll win by more than 4 scores, so I have to take them here.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-20): I just think Nebraska is a bad blond joke, really. They gathered a little too much love after starting the season with a nice record. They lost at home to a Virginia Tech team that can’t score, and they gave up 35 points in the process. Texas Tech has one of the best offenses in the field, taking them here makes sense, even with all those points to cover.

LSU Tigers (+6) @ Florida Gators: I like LSU. I think they are better than the Gators, because defensively they can stop anyone. Tim Tebow hasn’t really impressed me this year, as he looks a step behind himself last year, both throwing and running. The Gators sure have lots of talent, but they’ll never be as physical as the Tigers. I think LSU pulls the upset here.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers (+5.5): If the Badgers proved anything last week, it’s that they play great football at home. The Lions have been fantastic thus far, looking almost unbeatable, but that might just change in Wisconsin this week, and at +5.5 the Badgers hold all the value in this one.

Boise State Broncos (-10.5) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: I like Boise in this one. I don’t think the Broncos will sleep on coach Larry Fedora for one second, and they are the much more talented team. The Broncos beat a good Oregon team and a quality Bowling Green team. SMU just lost home tilts with Marshall and UTEP, back to back. Their only wins are against Arkansas State and a decent Louisiana Lafayette team. The Broncos are too efficient in what they do, and I think they make a statement against SMU in this one – Not in year one Mr. Fedora!

Tulsa Hurricane (-24.5) @ Southern Methodist Mustangs: Tulsa is a nice team. They can really throw the ball. They can run it. They put up lots of points, and considering the amount of possessions their defense has to play, they stop opponents as well. They haven’t played anybody really good yet, but then again the Mustangs aren’t really good. Tulsa has beaten similar mediocre to bad teams by bout 28 points (if you don’t count their 63-7 win over Bowling Green. I think that margin is about right, giving the Hurricane a nice 5-5 point value here.

Idaho Vandals @ Fresno State Bulldogs (-34): I’ll say it again, that’s how bad Idaho is. Think the Detroit Lions of college football. The Bulldogs have played below their talent level the last couple games, I bet that trend doesn’t continue in this one. The Vandals put up 14 poitns against Nevada last week, that alone was amazing, they still lost by 35 points though. In their 5 losses this year, the Vandals haven’t been closer than 23 points – and that was against Western Michigan. Brutal. FSU 54- Idaho 10…

Air Force Falcons (-10.5) @ San Diego State Aztecs: Air Force is good, SD State is bad. Air Force played tight with a very good Navy team (lost by 6) and an even better Utah team (lost by 3) – they should trounce the Aztecs.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6

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I’m back fellas, and with better advice than ever before. I got a hair cut (just the sides, don’t grow it up top anymore – know what I mean Lucky? Haha – haha) and a massage so you can only imagine how ready I am to share my fantasy knowledge with the rest of you. Let the games before the games begin!

Tory Mills from Sanitary Service says, “Papa, sorry to bother you with TE advice, but I was just wondering, which guy do you think would do the best work for me until Shockey returns to the Saints? I am thinking that my four best choices are John Carlson, Dustin Keller, Daniel Graham, and Zach Miller. You have a lean on any of these?”

You bet Tony, I like Miller. I think the Raiders are going to play worse without Kiffin running the show, because now it means that Al Davis is completely running the team, and that’s never a good thing. However, that means more passing, and while Davis would love to see Russell toss the ball 60+ yards on every single play, the truth of the matter is that Russell’s favorite target is a big sure handed tight end by the name of Zach. I think Keller has lots of upside, but the fact that he has to compete for touches with the “starting” TE in New York makes him a chancey start any given week. John Carlson started off really well, but with Engram back and Branch probably back for good here in a week or so, I think he loses his targets a little. Still, I expect him to be the 2nd best option in the group you listed. Graham is an interesting one, I’ve always liked Daniel, and his great blocking means that defenses can’t put good coverage guys on him all the time. He has all the ability to be a Top 10 TE, so if Scheffler is out for an extended time, he’s worth a shot. Still, I like Miller the most, and Carlson and Graham are close at 2 and 3. Keller’s upside is the greatest, but he’s a back-up TE that gets half the TE throws if he’s lucky. Good luck Tony.

Tom Thumb from the State of Shatty Sports Teams asks, “Should I pick up Bobby Engram, really, or will he just get injured in a dominoes accident? There are three other receivers I kind of like out there, but Engram seems like the best value in a PPR league. Let me know what you think, here are my other choices. Steve Breaston, Dominek Hixon, Javon Walker. Thanks in advance…”

Tom, I’m guessing of Washington State, it’s not easy being rained on all day and then dealing with the Hawks, Mariners, Sonics… err… Thunder, Huskies, and Cougars, I know, but you have to hold on tight, Western Washington, or anywhere on the West Coast for that matter, is a bad place for sports. People have better things to do than follow a bad team out there, and thus you get bandwagon monkeys every single year. I know, I’m from there – well I live there anyway. As for your question, yeah, I think I’d risk my waiver wire money on Bobby Engram. He’s a good receiver, especially good in that check down short pass go nowhere frustrating to watch take no chances play not to lose offense they run in Seattle. IF he stays healthy, I think he’s the best option here. I like Breaston, and think he has decent season long value as the #3 in Arizona, and more value as the #2 until Boldin gets back. But, I think Engram will get more looks than him, and in a PPR league those catches get big. Hixon has a lot of talent, but with all those options in New York I don’t see him getting the ball all that much. He’s a great get if Burress gets hurt, and just wait for that to happen. Javon, well, I don’t know what to say except I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole. I hope he turns it around, but until he shows some sign of a heart beat, I’d let him rot in Oakland where receivers often go to die.

NFL Free Picks: Week 6

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I had a solid week in Week 5, pulling 3 more games up on the season while going 8-5-1. This week I’m looking for another winning week to keep my game going. Here’s what I like and the other ones I have to pick. The road teams seem to be getting most of my attention this week, while dogs and favorites are split right down the middle. Enjoy the show.

Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: I can’t see value in the Colts right now. I don’t love Baltimore and I think Peyton has played well against them in the past, but right now I think a tough Ravens running game will give an inconsistent Colts team trouble, even if the Ravens can’t pass real well with Flacco running the show. I expect Addai to get close to nothing and Willis McGahee to have his best game of the year. Picking against the Colts always makes me worry a bit, but this seems like pretty solid value.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: I hate taking the Bengals, really, I do. I just think they are better than their 0-5 record and it has to turn around somewhere. I’m not dying in love with this game, but +6 for a Bengals team that’s played a lot of close games recently, I like that more than taking a Jets team that hadn’t really impressed me before two weeks ago against Arizona.

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I’ve always liked the Panthers as a dog, and even though I buy Tampa Bay as an underrated team, and probably see some value with them at home in this one, my gut is telling me to go with the Panthers – so, screw a bunch of value, I’m going Carolina Blue on this one.

Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: Am I living on the edge here? Picking against the Falcons once again? I know they’ve been killing me a few times this year, but I think Forte is too much of a force for the Falcons defensive front and I like what Orton has been doing through the air. I think Atlanta is much improved, but the Bears are back (at least better than they were). I’m still not ready to fully buy in to the Bears rolling to the playoffs, but week after week they move up in my book.

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): I think the Raiders with Lane Kiffin is a great value here – but Lane was fired because Al Davis was beginning to look like an idiot -fair enough. Until the Raiders prove otherwise, I’m definitely not picking them. I actually felt comfortable taking Oakland in this situation, because I’ve never thought much of the Saints, but at just a touchdown this one is a home team special for me.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): Similar to Washington State sports, you can’t see much love for Detroit or St. Louis in the NFL right now. The Vikings are a decent team, they should have lost on Monday Night, but they are a decent team. They will run more and be more effective doing it against the Lions, and of course they can always throw if the need to. Detroit won’t be able to run, and their whole plan to do a scaled down offense with the hurry up seems like a backfire waiting to happen. Gimics don’t get you wins in the NFL, take the Vikings or don’t bet this game at all.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: The 3.5 (the .5 part) gives me some value on the Dolphins. They do a good job of following their game plan, play discipline football, and make few mistakes offensively. I think the Texans are a much better team than 0-4 indicates, though, so if I had the choice I wouldn’t play this game. Houston has a solid offense and a defense with lots of talent, I think they will only get better as the seasons moves forward. I just like the fact that if Miami loses by a field goal I still win.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): All those points, what shall we do with them? Juggle them, shoot them in a hoop, I don’t care, I’d just stay away from any kind of “value bet” involving the St. Louis Rams. At -13.5 they might have some value, if they weren’t the Rams. If Detroit wasn’t around, the Rams would the be the sure thing worst team in football. Cincinnati and Cleveland would wallop the Rams. I like what the Redskins are doing, and honestly, they don’t have a weakness right now. They are getting healthier on defense and even with two touchdowns needed to cover, I think this is a solid bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: This is another tough call for me. I like the Jaguars to run all over the Broncos, but I also like Denver to throw the ball all over the Jaguars secondary. It’s like these two teams are made to put up loads of points on each other. At 48, I’d be taking the over instead of playing either side of this game. I guess, like the Miami game, I see a little bit more value in +3.5, because if Denver comes down and kicks a field goal to win it I still win with the Jags. If Cutler and his receivers don’t hit on all cylinders then that also gives the value nod to Jacksonville. Even with a mediocre offensive line, the Jags should be all ball control in this one. Tough call, but my lean is on Jacksonville at +3.5.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: I like the Eagles in this one, in fact I love them. Philly has played like poo-poo over the last two weeks, and the week before that they weren’t brilliant either. That usually means good things for Eagles’ backers, as Philly is a one team slump buster. I think they do a lot right this weekend, even without Westbrook (if he indeed doesn’t play). Buckhalter is a nice running back, and without Westy they’ll just have to plan to get the ball to receiver’s hands more. The Eagles going to 2-4 with a loss to the 49ers, I don’t see it.

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: I like Dallas to dismantle the Cardinals, or at least win by a touchdown. I think the Boys bring a lot of speed at the quarterback, and while Warner has been pretty good (despite one turnover happy game) he has always been prone to the mistake, and Dallas has the athletes and offense to really make him pay. Arizona has a chance because of their run defense, but I like Barber to have a solid game against the Cardinals – that should cut out any hopes the Cards have at an upset here. Jason Witten and Terrell Owens should be enough to keep the Cardinals’ secondary occupied, meaning that extra help the front 7 usually gets won’t be there for much of the game. Cowboys are the play here.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Stay away from Washington sports. Seattle’s bound to have another receiver injury this week, and if that happens they’ll have to dress up Charlie Frye in an 80 number and see if he can’t pass for Steve Largent. Green Bay had a little bit too much hype after the first couple weeks, and now look where they are. Still, I don’t see them coming into Seattle and not running the ball right down the Seahawks throats. Ryan Grant should have his first big fantasy day of the year, and that will lead the Packers to a victory over their former coach.

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): Lets see, the Patriots don’t run the ball real well right now and their passing game doesn’t flourish either. They capitalized on a lot of 49er mistakes in Week 5, but I doubt the Chargers will be so kind on Sunday Night. I’m willing to bet that LaDainian Tomlinson actually has a decent day on the ground, and Phillip Rivers continues to be his accurate self. The Patriots at +5.5 seem like a great bet, but my feeling has me taking the Chargers to win by a touchdown. Come on SD, this is your chance, get those Patriots while you can.

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.

Ten for Tuesday

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Here goes something…

  1. I killed it on my top picks of the week, also known as the picks I put my face on. That’s right, I lost just one game on the week. I was 6-1 with my college picks and an undefeated 3-0 in the NFL. I’m up in both football formats and hopefully winning you guys some money. Lots of games, lots of picks, lots of wins thus far. I’ll keep ’em coming!

  2. I’m so sick of “random stats” that I’ve started hitting the “recall” button on my controller, busting back to the last channel my girlfriend was watching, ever single time ESPN starts to read off some bullshit stat about how B.J. Upton is the only player with a last name starting with the letter U to hit multiple homeruns in a playoff game – or never in a Monday Night Football game has there been two punt return touchdowns, a blocked field goal for a touchdown, and three idiot announcers reading some complete idiot stat guys newest concoction on the same damn night. That’s right, so instead of just enjoying a good game I get all flustrated and end up watching some spew about how Paris Hilton is trying to find a new BFF – whatever the hell that means. So, now I’m pissed, watching terrible TV, and possibly missing Reggie Bush take back kick number three, but at least I don’t have to listed to Mike Torico babble on about some random stat that makes me want to break my TV – I only have to deal with that dumb blond rich bitch that has some crazy need to project her image in front of millions of MTV watchers. Ugh. Needless to say, I’m just pissed. Who would have though? Me, hating ESPN.

  3. Is now the time to go get Thomas Jones? I’ve been looking at some remaining schedules, and with the Jets showing everyone in the league they can toss the ball around, more focus will go into guarding against Brett’s wild arm and Coles and Cotchery along the outside. But, the Jets have shown they want to run the ball given an open look. I think Thomas Jones finishes the year as a Top 10 back, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Top 5 guy from here on out. He sits at a pretty reasonable value I reckon.

  4. I was watching LeSean McCoy this weekend – he’s legit. Him and Beanie Wells, both should come out and do work in the big league. There are so many good backs in the game right now, I don’t know where they would fit, but if the Seahawks don’t try to grab a big play receiver or a big play running back in the first couple rounds of next years’ draft, they’re brass is just plain stupid.

  5. I don’t write one, and proabably never will, but I figure this is as good a place as any to throw out my biggest stud pickups of last week. There were a few moves that made many an owner feel brilliant for pulling out a win, and my Top guys at the big 3 positions are… Kyle Orton, DeAngelo Williams, and Bernard Berrian. That’s right, these three guys were all additions in my fantasy leagues this week. Williams was dropped earlier in the week, Orton hadn’t been owned all year, and Berrien was dropped after not impressing and being a question mark for this weeks action. I picked up Berrian and started him over Chris Henry. I won by 10. Yhatzee. Kyle Orton was a huge part of my uncle’s win this week, and my best buddy picked up DeAngelo later in the week, and started him because he was hurting with Steven Jackson and McFadden on his bench. Three big pick-ups, and people say drafting is where you win this game. HA!

  6. Mike Walker: All the talent that most of the receivers in Jacksonville don’t have. He’s really fast and seems to attack the ball. If he keeps getting chances he might be a nice player for David Garrard. I’ve always liked Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones has shown an ability to make big plays, but Walker has that NFL speed that they don’t, and that could really help this Jaguar team.

  7. Just in, Ronnie Brown is really freaking good. Any time you take a running back in the Top 10 in an NFL draft I think it’s a mistake, but Brown can really do it all. And he’s a lefty. It’s nuts. He reads really well, runs with great patience, can throw the ball, is really fast, and he’s got great size. Those that believed Ricky Williams was going to hold of Ronnie all year long, how does that look now? That said, I still think Ricky should be owned in fantasy circles. He’s not only a great back-up guy in case of injury, but he produces right now. He had a down week, sure, but I think he’ll bust the century mark a couple times and be worth keeping around.

  8. Michael Turner can only run against bad defenses, so he’ll really struggle against the Packers. I can’t tell you how many times I read that in fantasy articles this weekend, it’s like “they” all got together and pow-wowed there way to hating Mike Turner. Time to check out the league’s stats fellas, this guy put up 127 against the Pack and still holds the top spot on the rushing yardage pile. The Packers aren’t great against the run right now, they are down both DTs from last years’ defense and the Pack running game is struggling so the defense is on the field longer. But still, just because Turner had down games against some better defenses doesn’t mean he can only run against garbage. This kid is legit, and the more Matt Ryan learns and matures, the more Turner will burn defenses.

  9. I wonder how Plax feels about the Giants having their best offensive game of the year with him out? This is why you don’t throw 8 mill a year at receivers. I think they can change an offensive outlook, help #2 and #3 receivers out because they are getting so much attention, but I also don’t think a receiver makes or breaks an offense. Anquan Boldin is one of my favorite receivers in the game, he’s even better than he gets credit for, but look, the Cardinals did the Bills good this week, and Boldin was out. Steve Breaston, Early Doucett, these guys are manageable, and if you can put a lot of your money elsewhere, I think your team is better paying lower salaries to the receiver position. Hixon is legit and Steve Smith is solid and even Amani Toomer (as old as he is) can beat defenses regularly. All this being said, Plax is a beast and he’s going to help the Giants a lot this year. I’m just saying, maybe receiver isn’t the position you need to deal out the bucks to….

  10. I really like Buster Davis for the Chargers. He doesn’t get many balls, and he isn’t fantasy relevant yet. In fact, even though I’m loving his game, I’m leaving him on the waiver wire. I’m just saying, the guy looks good when the ball is thrown his way, and I now see why the Chargers drafted the kid. He’s fast and aggressive. Here’s to hoping the guy gets more looks, I think he can be a really good player in this league.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 5

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7-5-1 heading into Monday Night, I locked down yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) “The Ravens won’t be able to throw. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.” Well, I loved it all week long but it started to get more and more worrisome as Sunday began to eclipse – but in the end, that field goal I needed the Titans to cover came through as Tennessee had one more score at the end of the game to pull me up 3. Whew.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: (LOSER) Washington State sports = no thanks. I don’t know what’s happened to the Hawks, but they’ll need to do a lot more than beat some random bad team in the NFC to get my full confidence again – I should have known. Sorry for leading you astray on this butt kicking, the Hawks lost by a million it seemed like. 44-6 = one million in football speak.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): (LOSER) I think this one is close – and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell.” Okay, the Eagles did put some pressure on Campbell to start the game, but their run defense that had been stellar was torched by Clinton Portis. Portis was in full beast mode, showing hulk strength, busting tackles and basically carrying the Redskins to victory. The Eagles were up early and I was smiling, but Philly didn’t do anything offensively, and the Redskins took full advantage. Washington is really impressing me.

San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: (LOSER) “I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.” Soooo… Haha, apparently the “experts” slapped me around on this one. San Diego came out a little stale, and Miami showed a couple folks that their win over New England wasn’t as flukey as it seemed. Can Sparano and Parcells really give this bad of a team this much confidence? It seems like it. I was DEAD WRONG about this one, and even though I thought it’d be close, the Dolphins are just much more physical than I thought. I don’t think they’ll sleep on anyone else this season, but they’ll continue to be a tough out.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) 34-7… It doesn’t pay to be a Lion fan right now. And don’t get me wrong, it rarely has. The Bears embarrassed the Lions in all aspects of the game, making me look smart with my road favorite pick here.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): (LOSER) Well, Aaron Rodgers played, had a pretty damn good game, and the Packers still go to 2-3 on the season, tallying up their 3rd loss in as many contests. It looks like these young teams with new coaches are doing something right these days – maybe a couple of these franchises (Miami, Atlanta, Washington) are turning the corner. I definitely like what I see from Matt Ryan and the young Falcons – going into Green Bay and man-handling the Packers up front is big step forward.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER) “This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here.” What else could you call what happened on Sunday in Houston? Will to win. The Colts snuck out another one, and while they could easily be 0-4, they’re through the first quarter of the season at 2-2. Houston will get it together, but they’ll have a tough couple days thinking about this one getting away. I lucked out with this cover. Houston dominated the Colts for much of this game. 21 points in 4 minutes got me a one point win – you don’t want much of that business going on here, not unless heart failure is your ideal way to go.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there.” Larry Johnson, the AFC’s leading rusher coming in, had 2 yards on 7 carries and the Panthers shutout the Chiefs in dominating fashion. Got this one right on the button.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): (PUSH) “This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation.” Well, it was close, and the gut-feeling had some kind of feeling going on. In the end this low scoring affair ended with Splinter’s Broncos up 3 and pushing me to a tie.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): (WINNER)  “I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.” Well, the highs and lows definitely evened out. It didn’t hurt that Trent Edwards went down early with a concussion, and even though Losman looked good throwing the ball a couple times, his turnover prone quarterbacking meant the end for Buffalo. Arizona played well, stuffing the run pretty good and constantly attacking on offense. All in all, I was right. Ha,

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WINNER)  “I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.” (YEP) – The 49ers had a chance if they gave Frank Gore about 15 more carries – as it turned out, they just threw the ball a lot and put up their fair share of turnovers. That will lose you any game against the Pats. Yay me, boo Mike Martz!

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) This one was close, once again proving that even bad teams in the NFL shouldn’t be underdogs by 17 points. Ridiculous. The Bengals were even tougher than the final score insists, as a late touchdown put the Cowboys up 9, and before that Carson Palmer and company were a two point conversion away from tying this thing late in the 4th. Good value, good win, this one made me a sure thing winner in Week 5.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): (LOSER) The final score was close, and Jacksonville was up one late in the game, but the Steelers really came out fired up for this one, out-toughing the Jaguars from the get go. Pittsburgh is an interesting team that I’m not reading real well, no question about that. Their run-defense played inspired football handing me my 6th loss on the week.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: I won this game, and I have to say, despite losing the yardage battle, and feeling that I was going to lose the game all night, and watching Drew Brees pass at will, I was really happy when Martin Gramatica came in to put the Saints up three. That basically gives me a win. This was definitely and interesting one, and I’m not sure I picked the right side on this game, but I did come out on top, bringing me to 8-5-1 on the week, three more games over .500. I’ll take a win any way I can get it.

theRUNDOWN: Week 6

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Here’s Week 6’s action…

QB: Tony Romo vs. Arizona: Here’s the deal, teams haven’t been able to run against the Cardinals, so I see no reason that Romo won’t have a huge day. It should be a shootout, this game, or at least one that prompts a few pass attempts from the Dallas boys. I like Tony’s chances of 3-4 touchdown passes. Brett Favre against the Cardinals? Remember?

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: Matt Forte didn’t kill the Lions defense like I thought he would, but I’ll give them a second shot. Certainly this beast of a man can give Detroit the old one-two punch, uppercut, jab, jab, home run, yhatzee, 200 yards and a couple touchdown dance.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Atlanta: I like Forte a lot, even in a bad week against the Lions, Forte still scored twice and put in work during a Bears route. I’m willing to bet he comes out and plays well against the Falcons.

FLEX: Ronnie Brown: I’ve always liked Ronnie, and while Houston hasn’t put up terrible rushing defense numbers, I just get the feeling that Miami is giving Ronnie 25-30 chances to make point scoring plays. The ball in his hands means good things, and against Houston he’s bound to break a couple.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Seattle: The Hawks are lost, no doubt in my mind. Greg Jennings gets the ball a lot, and he is a beast when running after the catch. The Hawks are pretty trustworthy in that they allow big plays, you can trust them to do so. Lots of reasons to like Greg here.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Arizona: See Tony Romo, above.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: See Tony Romo, above.

K: Josh Scobee vs. Denver: The Broncos defense allows lots of offense. They are coming off a week where they actually played alright, so that’s unlikely to carry over to this week’s game. This one is in Denver, so long kicks are even more likely. This one has to be a good one, despite my kicking hex.

D: New York Giants vs. Cleveland: The Giants are legit. I thought they’d struggle, I was wrong. Their defense gets the J.O.B done. I like them against and underwhelming Browns team.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Jason Campbell: The Rams will pay all their attention to Portis, and respectably so. Unfortunately, that just means campbell will have to torture them. I think Jason is a nice play this week, he’ll finish in the Top 12.

David Garrard: Garrard hasn’t been the same accurate, problem free signal caller he was last year. But he’ll get back into the swing of things. He gets to throw it around on Denver’s secondary, so like I said, brighter days are soon to come.

Gus Frerotte: Still a nice option. 2nd week in a row.

Fred Taylor: I bet Fred scores his first touchdown and gets over 100 yards. He’s been a bad option thus far, sans one solid week, but Fred won’t be scoreless after Sunday’s tilt with Denver.

Willis McGahee: I like Willis’s chances to get his highest total of carries on the season, and while getting all those looks he’ll do his best work of the season as well. So far he’s been a terrible option, but he’ll pull it together against a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense.

Brandon Jackson: He’s a big chance, for sure, but the Packers might have to give him 14-16 carries right? With Grant struggling and Rodgers on the pine, I think Jackson is a big sleeper this week against the Falcons front 7.

Lance Moore: Against Oakland Moore might find more room to roam. Whew, tough one. No, but honestly, despite some alliteration excitement, Lance looks like a pretty solid play against the Raiders.

Steve Breaston: Boldin might be back, but Breaston has done enough to gain Warner’s confidence, and the former grocery bagger (Warner) has shown an affinity for getting the ball to 3rd wide receivers, so either way, he’ll be a decent option as a sleeper this week again.

Devin Hester: Hester has found the end-zone a couple times, and I still think he reaches the 10 or more scores I expect him to tally. Atlanta’s a good place to find one or two of those. As a waiver wire guy, you could have a nice bye week option here.

Greg Olsen: This young TE is a nice sleeper with Kyle Orton getting his wings recently – against Atlanta’s secondary he could be a nice waiver wire pick up with nice future upside.

Washington Redskins: Why? Because until the Rams prove they aren’t the worst team I’ve ever seen, it’s sleeper defense every week time.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

J.T. O’Sullivan: Martz always has his quarterbacks throwing lots of touchdowns and turning the ball over just about as often. Against Philly it will be more turnover than TD, and that’s why I wouldn’t follow O’Sullivan to the well this week.

Edgerrin James: James had a touchdown last week against Buffalo, and has solid numbers on the season, but he won’t be doing much in terms of fantasy production against the Cowboys. Sit him.

Jamal Lewis: Back off his bye, I still don’t like Lewis as a start this week. Until New York allows some offensive action, I’m staying away from middle of the road fantasy runners against them. Just like Julius Jones last week, Jamal isn’t the best option in Week 6.

Steve Smith: I would start Steve Smith almost every single week, because you never know when he’s going to break one and take it 80 yards. However, this seems like a down week for Steve, and if you have the balls, and a decent back-up, I’d leave Steve on the bench.

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 6

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15-10-1 in a tough Saturday in NCAA Football. I was a handful of tough losses away from a brilliant week, but I’ll take 5 games up – that’s for sure. A special thanks goes out to college football teams in Washington – keep up the coverless football fellas!

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at West Virginia Mountaineers (-14) (LOSS): Up 14 headed into the 4th, I thought I could get a little help from the Mountaineers and pull this one out despite the injury to Pat White that had him out headed into the final frame. The Mounties tried to run out the clock, and White was out for good. Rutgers scored a late touchdown and I lost this one. I still think it was a good bet, but having White go out was tough.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Mississippi Rebels (-2.5) (LOSS): I still think the Rebels are the better team. A couple freakish “spurrier plays” turned momentum and South Carolina pulled this one out. When analyzing these two teams, I think Mississippi wins 7 or 8 out of ten. This just happened to be one of the 20% – bummer for me.

Florida State Seminoles (+3) at Miami Hurricanes (WINNER): “Talk about two up and down teams, you never seem to know what to expect from these two teams absolutely chalked full of talent. I’m just going to go ahead and chalk FSU’s 3 point output against Wake Forest up as a flukey bad loss and go with them headed into “The U” – Miami has talent, no doubt, but FSU has shown some strength against decent teams, Miami has only played well against nothing good. Rivalry game, but I’ll take the road team.” Well, I was certainly right on the button about these two Florida schools being more up and down than a yo-yo circus act. With FSU up 24-0, Miami’s lone 1st half score, a measily field goal, seemed to open up some kind of sadistic U flood gate to points. Miami put up 36 second half points, but that wasn’t enough to keep the visiting Seminoles out of the win column as FSU won by two.

Arizona State (+9.5) and (+10) at California 3:30 pm: (LOSS, PUSH) This was a push, though earlier in the week the line was 9.5 and so I guess I get a loss for that bet, my late bet got me a push though – so I’ll take that – ha. Arizona State didn’t do anything offensively, and I was lucky to get a push here.

Temple Owls (+8) at Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (WINNER): “I just like what Temple brings to the table with 11 returning starters, 20 seniors, and 26 juniors – this is a good football team that has had some tough losses against some good programs to start the season. I think they fight back with a nice win in this one.” Sometimes what I like and what I think become one in a fantastic explosion of joy and money winnings -this was one of those instances. The Owls were never down in this game, and while it got close in the 3rd, Temple came out tough in the 4th to put up 14 unanswered and make me a smart winner of more money.

Florida International (-6) at North Texas (WINNER): “Florida International is pretty decent – they stick close to good teams, and given a shot against a relatively equal opponent I think they will win easy. North Texas isn’t good – against anyone. Unless I’m sleeping on something, I like the FLINT to win by 3 touchdowns – lots of rushing yards from them in this one.” Did I say three touchdowns? How about 42-10, and North Texas didn’t put a touchdown on the board until the 4th quarter. I think I had this one pretty well figured out.

Northern Illinois at Tennessee Volunteers (-15.5) (LOSS): Maybe I’m wrong and Tennessee is really bad. Fluke loss to UCLA or just not very good? I’m thinking, after this week’s performance against NIU, option two is looking good. Sorry about this beat.

Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans (-16): (WINNER) Up 27-10 at half time I liked my chances. up 37-10 after three I was beginning to cash my check. And the 44-10 end game result was icing on the cake. Maybe the Trojans just had a bad game, and quite possibly, wait for it, they are actually really freaking good. Crazier things have happened.

Hawaii at Fresno State Bulldogs (-21): (LOSS) And Hawaii wins… It’s an interesting ball game, this college football, you never know what’s going to happen for sure. Just ask the Bulldogs. 21 point favorites losing in overtime to a Hawaii team that’s never upset a ranked team on the road. Ranked team
? Fresno? Well not anymore they aren’t.

Oregon State Beavers @ Utah Utes (-11): (LOSS) Damn Thursday Night games… That’s it for me, take the underdog on Thursday night or don’t bet the game at all. There’s no point in watching black magic happen against you – that’s my new philosophy and I’m sticking to in, until of course there’s nice value on a favorite.. Haha..

Cincinnati Bearcats (-3) @ Marshall Thundering Herd: (WINNER) The Bearcats, with 3rd string quarterback and all, were a heck of a lot better than the Thundering Herd. I knew it, you knew it, everyone knew it, so I’m hoping I wasn’t the only one cashing in on this winner.

BYU Cougars (-29) @ Utah State Aggies: (LOSS) “Cougars by 38 – that’s my best guess. Did I say guess? I didn’t mean it, I meant that’s my strong opinion based on facts and assumptions that border on the line of reality.” You can say what you want, and argue what you will, but I watched a BYU team walk into the 4th quarter with a 34-0 lead and on pace to one up my 38 point win prediction. What happened? Once again a team lets up late, not thinking of the bettors at all, and a couple souls get crushed. They didn’t go for the jugular and they allowed a couple late scores, and 34-14 doesn’t even cover my private parts. This was the first of four tough losses for me this weekend.

Boston College Eagles (-8) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: (LOSS) I hate Boston College. They went into “try not to lose” mode and nearly let one slip away. What they did do was allow a bad Wolfpack team to crawl right back into this one with a 14 point fourth quarter. A late touchdown won it for BC, but I was still a point down, and despite my hopes and dreams, the Eagles didn’t elect to go for two to get me a push. Damn them.

Akron Zips (-3.5) @ Kent State Golden Flashes: (LOSS) The Zips win by 3 in overtime and I get a half point loss. You win some you lose some, but when I look back at what could have been an unbelievable week, I see a couple very tough losses on the card that could have easily gone the other way.

Florida Gators (-24) @ Arkansas Razorbacks: (WINNER) I needed most of those 21 fourth quarter points to pull out a cover here, but Arkansas couldn’t get into the end-zone all day. They had plenty of chances, and this game shows me that Florida probably doesn’t have much value anywhere close to 4 touchdown dogs, but it’s nice to learn a lesson and get a win – no doubt about that.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears (+27): (LOSS) This one didn’t start out well, that’s for sure, but it got close there, and if it weren’t for a late 4th quarter touchdown by the Sooners, I would have walked out of Baylor with yet another win to my name. As it was, I lost this one by 5 points. That’s the bad news. The good news, I wouldn’t lose another one all day long…

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+28) @ Virginia Tech Hokies: (WINNER) “This is a real test, but after much deliberation I still can’t even fathom the Hokies as a -28 favorite against anybody in the nation, not even a Hilltopper team that has a 38 point loss to Kentucky and a 34 point loss to Alabama to be credited for.” You have to say that I had this one right on the dot. The Hokies can will a win out as well as anyone, and they play some solid defense, no doubt about it, but this game shows you they aren’t 28 point favorites, not even against Hilltoppers.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) @ Kansas State Wildcats: (WINNER) “Don’t be fooled by K-State’s 3-1 record thus far, North Texas and Montana State don’t count, they lost to Louisville, and beat ULLaffayette by 10. Needless to say I like the Raiders, even though the public is riding this like a used up quarter pony at Walmart. Ride it!” Ride it, my pony…. The Raiders made K-State’s defense look like stationary defensive decoys as the TT put up 58 points on their conference foe. Maybe the Raiders are pretty good afterall, and maybe beating North Texas and Montana State doesn’t put you in close proximity to a Top 10 team in the Nation. Shoot, I don’t know.

Kentucky Wildcats (+17) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: (WINNER) Just as I thought, the 17 was too big of a spread here. Alabama came out and put up 14 quick points, but the rest of the game wasn’t that easy, and they needed a late onside kick recovery to finally put away the hard fighting Wildcats. Kentucky is solid, and maybe Alabama shouldn’t be huge favorites regardless of competition.

Illinois Fighting Illini (+3) @ Michigan Wolverines: (WINNER) “Because one of these weeks the Wolverines are going to get obliterated by all those stupid mistakes and Illinois is too physical and good to allow Michgan back in a game in which the Wolverines are getting handled. Juice will have a huge game, showing the Wolverines what kind of QB they need to be legit.” You know Rich Rodriguez was watching Juice throw the ball all over his defense and just admiring the young QB. Williams absolutely torched Michigan in the 2nd half. Juice’s 310 passing and 121 rushing yards were plenty of offense for the Illini, as they fought an early 14-3 first quarter deficit to win 45-20.

Nevada Wolfpack (-24) @ Idaho Vandals: (WINNER) “Because that’s how bad Idaho is.” Nevada went to 3-2 and beat Idaho 49-14. Does that cover a 24 point spread? Let’s see, carry the 3, you bet. It was 28-0 in the 3rd quarter, and Idaho’s 21 fourth quarter points sealed a nice win for me.

UL Lafayette (-2) @ UL Monroe: (WINNER) A little closer than I thought, Lafayette still took this one by 9 after Monroe put up 13 points in the 4th quarter. I love me some winners!

Washington Huskies @ Arizona Wildcats (-21): (WINNER) Well, this one was even easier than I thought. I needed some Washington Sports programs to come to my rescue, and by losing big and without much of a fight, they did exactly that.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-1) @ Wisconsin Badgers: (WINNER) Ohio State didn’t win by 10 like I thought they would, but a late touchdown put them over the top of one of the best home teams in the Nation, and they covered that 1 point spread by the hair on Jim Rome’s chinny chin chin.

Washington State Cougars @ UCLA Bruins (-17): (WINNER) This one seemed easy – it was – boy oh boy, Washington Sports is at a tough spot right now.