Monthly Archives: October 2008

DIRECTV – ESPN GamePlan Free NCAA Picks: Week 8

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Wake Forest Demon Decons @ Maryland Terrapins (+2.5): I like Wake, but they are bound to lose one of these close games. Every single one of their games (except one) has been tight. Maryland likes to lose games their supposed to win, but an underdog at home in this one, I like the Terps.

Western Michigan (-1.5) @ Central Michigan: I like CMU QB Dan Lefevour, but I thin Western Michigan’s defense is a little better. Defense wins rivalry games, and it’s not like Western Michigan’s offensive production is a joke QB Tim Hiller already has 2046 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. But defensively I like the road team in this one.

Miami (OHIO) Redhawks (+10) @ Bowling Green Falcons: The Falcons have allowed as many points per game as they’ve scored, and that’s never a good thing. These two teams have a nice history, and that usually ends up with Miami taking the game against the Falcons. I know Bowling Green is the better team, but in games like this things usually stay close.

Syracuse Orange (+24.5) @ South Florida Bulls: Syracuse has received my ire more than a few times, and early in the season they were a pretty safe bet against – but they have played better of late, and they are relatively healthy. They don’t score much, but their group of young defenders have proven to be resilient at least. South Florida isn’t a point machine, and they’ve played a lot of close games. I’ll take 3 touchdowns and a field goal plus a half point in this one.

Vanderbilt Vandals (+15) @ Georgia Bulldogs: This game was close in ’06 and close in ’07 and this Vanderbilt team is better than they’ve had in a long time. Georgia is a very good football team, but they aren’t a “blow you out” group by any means. They’ve had trouble playing close with their opponents, and a complete upset here wouldn’t surprise me. They only beat Tennessee by 12, Arizona State by 17 and South Carolina by 7 – Vandy is better than all three of those schools. Close game here, that’s my bet.

Army Black Knights @ Buffalo Bulls (-10.5): After barely losing to Central Michigan (2 points) and then getting ousted in overtime to Western Michigan last week, I think the Bulls are ready to come out and win an easy one. Buffalo is a solid team, that’s what has me taking them. I know Army has played some tough games, but Buffalo’s offense is more well rounded and Army has been played with the bounces in each of their last two contests. They’ll stumble a bit here and a good Bulls home team will win easily.

North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) @ Virginia Cavaliers: Talk about an up and down Cavs team, goodness. They lost by 45 at home to USC starting the season, and after a joke week they lost back to back games to Connecticut and Duke by a combined 13-76 score. Yikes. But, they fought back lately, beating Maryland 31-0 and East Carolina 35-20. Here’s the problem here, North Carolina plays too tough and though they lost something with Brandon Tate going down for the season, they still have enough talent to take the Cavs out on the road. North Carolina has played well on the road, handling Rutgers then beating Miami four weeks ago. This is a tough call, and not one of my favorite plays, but I like the Heels here.

Middle Tennessee State (+14.5) @ Louisville Cardinals: This one seems easy. Middle Tennessee State has played a lot of close games with a lot of good teams and Louisville just isn’t that solid right now. They’ve been playing better of late, but I’d say these teams are closer to even than two touchdowns apart – I like the Blue Raiders here.

Toledo Rockets @ Northern Illinois Huskies (-8.5): Toledo beat Michigan at the Big House last week… So what? Michigan is terrible, I’d take Northern Illinois over the Wolverines any day of the week and this game is at home. The Huskies have been good all year. I don’t see it, but most “experts” on a pretty prolific site have Toledo in this one. I’ll take the Huskies and be a renegade… Follow who you please.

Mississippi State @ Tennessee Volunteers (-7.5): I would stay right away from this game, but I’ll go with Tennessee to win their 6th straight against Mississippi State. They 7.5 isn’t too scary and while neither of these teams excite me, the Vols might have found a little better play from their quarterback position last week, and that’s what gives me the slight lean, oh, and the home field here.

Idaho Vandals @ Lousiana Tech (-20): Idaho played one relatively not so terrible game this year, and they still gave up gobs of points and lost. That was last game and thus people aren’t quite so against them right now, but they are terrible. You can do whatever you want to their defense, and I think the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 7

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A couple interesting ones questioning many things from fantasy gods to the ghost of Barry Sanders…  A Halloween special two weeks early? You could say that maybe.

Red Red Ryan from Walla Walla texts me this, “Papa Weimer, I’m in trouble. I think I might have done something to disappoint the fantasy Gods, or whomever it is that decides the balance of such things. You see, last week I lost in both of my fantasy leagues – but here’s the real trick, they were both ties and I dropped the soap with my overtime players in both situations. Two ties, two losses, same week – that is black magic if I’ve ever seen it. Is there anything you suggest that I should do? I’m really looking for some help here. Thanks in advance…”

Red Red Ryan, I think I got what you need. From the photo I’ve seen of you I noticed that you do indeed have red hair. Like America’s fortune 100 (in which not a single one is married to or dating a red head), Fantasy Gods seem to have a thing against red hair. Look at Carson Palmer for example – his hair has become more and more red over the years, and he’s still stuck in Cincinnati with a guy that changed his name to a false spanish number, on a losing team, and now he’s having shoulder and confidence issues – and he was probably the best red head ever, at anything, in the whole world. I say die your hair black or brown or even lime green – all three could be good looks for you. Die your hair guy is usually a joke to me, but i this case I’ll make an exception. Two ties with overtime losses, that does sound pretty amazing, and you also tell me that you never win playoff games in fantasy, that’s surely another fantasy god curse.  Here’s the deal with fantasy gods though, they aren’t really gods, they are a three man group including Mike “Splinter” Shannahan, Shannon “Horse Face” Sharpe, and Warren “Many” Moon(s). If there’s anyway you can please one of those unholy beasts then you can indeed get the fantasy fortune back on your side. My suggestion, don’t say things like “Why can’t you just give the ball to Tatum Bell, he has a great Yards Per Carry average!??!!” or “Shut your big dumb mouth Shannon, you played with freaking John Elway for God’s sake, you should be the all time touchdown leader you loud ass,” and definitely not, “Warren, thanks for your run and shoot input, but you are one bad female encounter away from a new version of your offense, the Shoot and Run.” None of these things will make them happy, and losing on ties will forever be your calling card. If that’s too much for you to handle, here’s the short version… Die hair, slap an old school #1 Huskies uni on, and watch the Ninja Turtles first movie – onward march young red bag….

Digs from Detroit says, “Okay, listen here – I know there’s that curse of the bambino and the Cubs curse, but I’m here in Detroit telling you that we have a curse of Barry Sanders – it’s killing me. I thought Matt Millen was the problem, but it may be more than that. I might trade Michael Turner for Barry Sanders and just see what happens, maybe the curse will be lifted? Let me know, and I’ll pull the trigger. We haven’t had a good runner since then, and our team sucks balls – give me a glimmer of hope old man.”

Ah, the curse of Bewwy – yes indeed. I wouldn’t trade anyone to get him, but for fantasy luck I like to take Sanders with my last pick in any league that allows more than 16 roster spots – he seems to sprinkle good ju-ju on my running back selections, and even thought the chances of him being fantasy relevant are just a slight bit higher than Adam “Frogger” Jones staying out of trouble, the good he does as a mentor has been priceless. I always have good running back luck. Say this year for example, after Round 5 I got Matt Forte. Then in Rounds 10 and 15 I got Chris Johnson and then Steve Slaton. Add that to my 3rd overall pick of Marion Barber and my 3rd round pick of Michael Turner and you’ll see why I’m dominating my 3 RB PPR league. But that’s just fantasy wise, and it looks like you are trying to stop something bigger, something more in the reality scheme than the fantasy realm. Hmmm… I’ve got it. Go back in time and get the Lions to not make so many draft mistakes. I’m not throwing Gosder Cherilus under Matt Millen’s bus quite yet, give him time first, but lets go back here… 2007 – Calvin Johnson is very good, no doubt, but Joe Thomas is one of the best Tackles in the league – ask any football knowledgeable guy and he’ll tell you the difference between an elite receiver and an elite tackle. 2006 – Ernie Sims is good (a little small and prone to nicks), but Jay Cutler is a stud that could have been had. That would have meant the Lions taking a guy that wasn’t a college all world player though, which is rare for them in Round 1. 2005 – Mike Williams over (well anybody) but great players that soon followed… DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown – each was taken in order directly after the Lions ignored all the good scouts directions. Stupid. 2004 – Roy Williams is a quality receiver with big time big play potential, but once again the Lions are putting a lot of their money into receiver – look at that historically, not a great move. Who could they have had? Oh, I don’t know, Ben Roethlisberger, Tommie Harris, Shawn Andrews, Vince Wilfork, Steven Jackson, Bob Sanders – but Ben and Tommie and Shawn and Vince would be 4 great options to have drafted. I can play this game all day, but any team that blows high picks on mediocre players will become terrible. In ’03 it was Charles Rogers over Andre Johnson, Terrence Newman, Jordan Gross, Terrell Suggs, Marcus Trufant, Troy Polamalu – the list goes on and one. Some teams make mistakes, no doubt, it’s just that Detroit does it every year. They error on the side of fantasy numbers. You can’t do that in real football. Millen’s gone, there’s my glimmer – also, there’s lots of mistakes to see where to go next. If they can learn from them, your Lions will be alright. For now, keep Mike Turner my man – he’s hope for your chances.

theRUNDOWN: Week 7

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. This is my Week 7 group… 

QB: Jay Cutler vs. New England: The Broncos are used to beating the Patriots and Cutler has a nice arm. Eddie Royal will be back this week and I think Cutler takes advantage of the Pats weak secondary. It was a toss up between him, Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but I’m leaning on Jay this week. 

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Cleveland: The Browns were better last week, but Portis torches everyone these days, he doesn’t discriminate. I like him to have a nice day in a close Redskins win. 

RB: Marion Barber vs. Rams: Romo’s injury means a lot more carries for Barber. Marion will torch the Rams defense and I see a multiple touchdown day for him this week. 

FLEX: Greg Jennings vs. Colts: He’s one of my favorite receivers in the league to watch, and I think he’ll do some work against the Colts. He’s very physical and all Rodgers needs to do is put the ball somewhere he can get to it. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New England: If the Patriots can’t stop Vincent Jackson they can’t stop Brandon Marshall (no offense to Jackson, I think he is a very good player). Marshall is my top receiver this week. 

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Detroit: Did you see Johnson big brothering the Dolphins last week? It was awesome. Need a lot of yards Schaub? Just throw it in the direction for Johnson he’ll beast anyone around and steal the ball away from them, pop it, and go home with their lunch money. I like a guy like that, especially against the lion cubs. 

TE: Jason Witten vs. St. Louis: Good secondary match-up and the TE is the easiest guy to get the ball to for a 2nd string quarterback. Either way, Romo or Johnson, I like Witten to get the rock 5-8 times on Sunday. 

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Denver: Versus Denver is my new kicker treat because I can’t seem to have any success at this position. I’ll just take versus Denver and do my darnedest. 

D: Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle: The Bucs defense is a stout unit, no doubt about that. The Hawks are brutal and they throw a lot. There you have it, turnovers and a low score – that equals yhatzee. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Cassel: Against the Broncos, you bet – the Patriots will have to get their points somewhere and I’m willing to bet that Cassel plays better this week. 

Jason Campbell: I think Jason throws two touchdowns this week against the Browns, but this game will have more than a couple scores going on. Good game to play Campbell. 

Earnest Graham: Still not getting enough touches to be a sure thing, I’m willing to bet that Graham sees 10-15 against the Hawks and that will be good for 60-90 yards and probably a score.

Darren McFadden: I like McFadden against the Jets. He’s a superb gamebreaker type back and he hasn’t really busted one for a while. I think he puts up about 80 yards and a score against New York this Sunday – but the Raiders lose big again. 

Vincent Jackson: Play him while he’s hot. All he needs is targets. He’s usually bigger and faster than anyone guarding him, and Rivers has been playing well enough to make sure Vincent gets the ball. I like him over some stars against this week. 

Lance Moore: I still like Moore for one more week. 

Devin Hester: Hester didn’t get into the zone last week, but he caught enough balls (6?) and went for 90+ yards so I think he’s a great option against the Vikings. Hester is very fast and the Vikings shut down the run and are open ended in the secondary. That should mean a nice day for Devin. 

Greg Olsen: Same with Hester I think Olsen is a nice mismatch for a mediocre Vikings secondary. 

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys need to step up somewhere, and I think their elite talent on defense gets them attacking Bulger and causing turnovers. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Gus Frerotte: I don’t like Gus this week. He’ll turn the ball over and the Bears, in my mind, are winning this week easily.  

Willis McGahee: McGahee won’t do much – weird. Apparently Willis is off the injury report – but don’t let that excite you too much, the Ravens aren’t going to be smashing the Dolphins around this week. 

Adrian Peterson: You won’t sit him, and that’s fine, but he couldn’t really do much against the Lions or the Saints – now the Bears??? Maybe he just does what he does and goes off for 200 yards, that’s why you can’t sit him, but I predict another bad week for AP. 

Chad Johnson: So far Chad has just been the normal Chad without any big weeks. He usually goes off a couple times a season and gets some solid numbers on his side. That won’t happen this week with Fitzy throwing him the ball. 

Three for Thursday

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For todays session I have three waiver wire players I really like moving forward – remember, I’m all about the elite possibilities, these guys are low risk high reward players, and there’s no other way to play fantasy football…

Ryan Torain: I don’t know if I can be more clear, this is the guy in Denver. I’d rather have him than any back in Bronco-land, even incumbent starter Selvin Young. Take into consideration the fact that Young gets about 10 carries a game as the starter, and you can see that Splinter isn’t inclined to give him the rock enough times to make him worth your while. Torain is a beast and I would be surprised if he doesn’t lead the Broncos in carries this season – yes, that means you’re looking at a possible Ryan Grant situation from yesteryear and that means big things. If he’s available get him – this is the last time I recommend the big Arizona back.

Donnie Avery: Because why not, that’s why. If you are looking for a receiving prospect that could have some huge games, than look no further than the speedy Ram opposite Torry Holt. Holt gets plenty of double teams and Avery is too fast to ignore. When you add the fact that St. Louis will be playing from behind plenty, there’s not reason to ignore this receiver. He’s a rookie, so production won’t be consistent, but a bye week flier on him might be beneficial.

Steve Smith: I know Dominek Hixon has been getting a lot of hype out of New York, but I think Smith will be the second best Giant receiving threat. He’s not a low risk high reward player, but in a PPR league he’s going to be very consistent. He catches about 80% of the balls thrown his way which is ridiculous. Eli has always shown an intelligent sense in who to get the ball to and this kid catches everything. He doesn’t get a ton of attention from defenses and while he won’t catch a lot of touchdowns, he’s going to score points all year long. If you need a 4th or 5th receiver, this USC product is a nice option.

One for Wednesday

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Of all the top drops this week, the Kitnas, Perrys, Meachems, and so on, I think Matt Hasselbeck (4th most dropped player) is the best future player this season. Hasselbeck might be out two to three weeks, but he’s a good quarterback and one that, when he gets back, his team will probably be as healthy as they’ve been all season. Remember, he’s been a top notch signal caller for the last few years, and there’s no reason to believe that, two or three weeks down the line when he returns, that he won’t be a solid option again. If you have room to stash a player away, Matt might be your best option.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 8

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Tough week for me last time around, I’m still up on the year but my positive money is dwindling a bit. Here’s what I have for Week 8 – which should be great – where my wins won’t be late – hate, mate, kate, rate, don’t eat the bait – and so on and so forth. 😉

LSU Tigers (-3) @ South Carolina: You bet – free money. LSU is so much better than South Carolina that I can’t even fathom losing this game. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, I just can’t fabricate a situation that sees LSU losing back to back games, their second being to South Carolina – no way no how.

Missouri Tigers (+6) @ Texas Longhorns: Maybe Texas is better and this game is at home for them, but I just have a feeling that Texas won’t keep playing great and Missouri will be on their best behavior after ruining a chance at perfection while losing last week.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College (-2.5): I like my chances with this one. VaTech plays well, and they are talented, but Boston College is a solid team playing on the road, and they got Tech last time the two went head to head. I see the Eagles pulling this one out.

Oregon State Beavers (-13.5) @ Washington Huskies: Free money again. This fits so many of my “good bet” categories I’m not even going into detail.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols aren’t good and while Miss State isn’t great either, they are just about equal with Tennessee. The fact that Tennessee usually just stops the Dogs in this match-up gets me excited for MSU having a chance and making it happen. I like the upset here so the points look good.

Utah State Aggies (+21) @ Nevada Wolfpack: I just don’t think Nevada should be favored by 3 touchdowns against anyone in their conference, and despite the Aggies attempt to crush my soul be getting pounded by San Jose State last week, I think they are a good bet here.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Navy Midshipmen (+3.5): First of all, this game won’t come down to points – either the Midshipmen or they’ll get beat pretty good. I think Navy wins this game. Pittsburgh loves to take teams lightly, Navy has a gnarly rushing attack, and PIttsburgh doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to handle the Midshipmen’s biggest weakness, their defense.

USC Trojans (+42) @ Washington State Cougars: This spread is freaking huge – I’ll take it. Bet against Washington – it’s been a working motto for me thus far and I’m sticking to it, through thick and borderline crazy. The Cougars have already lost 3 Pac-10 games by 40+, I don’t see why the best Pac 10 team (USC) can’t be the 4th to do so.

Kansas Jayhawks (+20) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I just think Kansas is closer to Oklahoma’s level than this. OK will be up to play this game after having their #1 ranking plundered from them, and I think they win this game, just not by this much.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-3) @ Michigan State Spartans: Really? Hmm… I don’t see it that close. I see Ohio State by a touchdown, even on the road. I wouldn’t doubt if OSU doubled my spread. The Spartans are 6-1, but they aren’t that good. They don’t have one quality win on their schedule thus far – and that won’t change this weekend against the chestnuts.

NFL Free Picks: Week 7

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I started tough last week (4 losses to bound my morning up) but finished strong and hope to keep that mo going heading into Week 7’s games. Here’s how I see them getting figured out…

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): This one is tight, hence the pick em, but I have to take the Bills here. San Diego and Buffalo are different places to play and the Chargers will find that out promptly. It’s an early game, which means the Chargers fly to Buffalo to play at 10 am their time, which usually doesn’t bode well. The Bills aren’t a dominate team by any means, but they play sound football and have an offense that doesn’t produce many mistakes. I like Buffalo in October, like them even better at home, and like them even better early at home against a team from Cali. SO I like this play here a little bit. Still, the Chargers are showing life and they don’t have the time to mess around and lose more games. I still don’t see it from LT yet, and thus I’ll lean toward the Bills.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): The play here is Minnesota, but I’m going against my initial feeling and taking the Bears. I think Chicago can pass on Minnesota and I’m pretty sure that if the Vikes had trouble running on the Lions and Saints, they’ll be bottled up against the Bears. I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope. They are sending Ryan Fitzsomething to the wolves here, and while Pittsburgh has struggled a bit with injuries, it is expected that Fast Willie Parker could return for this game, and that boost alone should get the Steelers and extra touchdown. That being said they are already a touchdown better than the Bengals. Put those two together and a 28-13 game is what I expect.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): The Ravens just out-physical opponents, and that’s how they win. The new coaching staff in Miami has neutralized that problem by becoming one of the more physical teams in football, on both sides of the ball. Chad Pennington is worth 3 or 4 points over Joe Flacco, and therefor I’m taking the Dolphins. I think they are a pretty solid bet here.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): I’m against the Saints again, and maybe it will crush me, but until they start doing better work in the red zone I have to go against them on the road against a more complete team. Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: Lane Kiffin’s gone, so the Raiders are going to have to prove to me that they can beat somebody without him. Didn’t work so well last week, as the Raiders looked worse than ever before. I don’t think that game is a fluke, I think the Raiders sans Kiffin are more doomed than ever. Take the Jets by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: Do the Cowboys lose a little bit without one of the best quarterbacks in football? You bet. Do they lose something wihtout Pacman Jones? Yep. Do they still have a considerable amount of talent that completely trumps anything the Rams have in St. Louis? Most definitely. I think the Cowboys take less chances, make fewer mistakes, and play better football in their first game without Romo and Jones. They are still loaded on the defensive side of the ball and one more offensive weapon for the Cowboys shouldn’t hurt them. I like Dallas by a touchdown on the road in the face of adversity.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Colts are the play here, even without a rushing attack to lean on. Green Bay is solid, but against a bend but don’t break defense I think they’ll have trouble. They don’t have enough of a rushing attack to make the Colts pay, and if Rodgers is throwing 40 times I see some mistakes popping up. I think this game will be quite the offensive showcase, and in such a game, I like to error on the side of one Peyton Manning.

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): The Texans are good. They’ve lost a lot of games already. The Lions are bad and they will continue to lose games. I like Drew Stanton but don’t think he’ll be enough to cover this spread. Steve Slaton will be running, Matt Schaub will be throwing, and I think Kevin Walter (of all white receivers) will have a very good game at home this Sunday. I think the Texans win by 2-3 touchdowns in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): This is the NFL and anything can happen, just like any other sport, but the Hawks are brutal right now, playing with absolutely no confidence and headed into Tampa Bay where the Bucs play stellar defense that should press Charlie Brown Frye into more than a few mistakes. The Hawks are a lost team and Tampa isn’t a heavy offensive point scorer, but they should still cover this monstrous spread. Defensively the Bucs are too consistent for Seattle to put up much more than 14 points.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown. I think Washington moves the ball well, but if you can take away the run a bit they have trouble scoring. The Browns gain a little confidence back after last week’s big win, and while I do think the Skins are a better team, I think this game comes down to a field goal. Even a touchdown still gets me a win, and I am really liking that extra half a point here.

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: Strength versus weakness here. In a couple ways. The Broncos love to throw early and often, and deep. The Patriots are struggling most in their secondary. The Patriots can’t seem to run the ball and everyone puts pressure on them. The Broncos can’t stop the run and can’t put pressure on anyone – I guess that’s a weakness versus a weakness, but that also favors the Broncos. Without much of a rushing threat, the Patriots won’t be able to trick the Broncos into committing to the run. That means the secondary will be more clogged. The Patriots look bad, and while the Broncos have struggled the last few weeks, I see this as a very nice match-up for them.

Ten for Tuesday

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  1. Did I tell you to pick up Jamal Lewis or what? He’s got a more user friendly schedule now, and he played well against the Giants and his team is looking up. He probably got more expensive, but he might still be worth it – he could have a really nice final 2/3s of the season.

  2. Bernard Berrian – yep. BB is really fast and he’s always open. Sure, he drops some balls but he catches some too. Two straight big weeks for Berrian and I think he has his best season as a pro – so if he’s still available or if you can get him as a bonus in a trade, fell happy to do work.

  3. Yes, Braylon Edwards is just as good as you thought he was coming into the season. Those of you who traded him when he was playing poorly – hahahaha – never sell low. Those of you that pilfered the super-talented touchdown machine, good on ya – and those of you that just held on to the big receiver, patiently waiting for his value to skyrocket – you played your cards right.

  4. Does Roy Williams’ value increase? Tough call – I think it does just because he’s happier in his situation now, and while he’s shown over the years that he is a tid bit immature, he has also shown that, when happy and included, he is a damn good young receiver. He’ll be a nice addition as a #2 behind TO, and he’ll get a lot of open looks in a Cowboys offense in which defenses pay a lot of attention to TO, Witten, and Marion Barber – but Romo is out for the next 3 games, and I’m not sure Roy will be the best option during those weeks where the Cowboys will almost certainly throw less and run more.

  5. Just to let everyone know, I prepared you for Thomas Jones big days a coming – he, and the rest of the Jets, play one of the easiest schedules in football from here on out. That means less chances for Brett and more runs for the Jets running backs. This is where Jones makes his owners happy and while you might be too late to get a good deal, I don’t think trading him now is the best option. He’s got some real nice match-ups coming up.

  6. Matt Schaub is a really good fantasy quarterback. I see that he is still available in a lot of leagues, and newsflash folks, he’s better than lots of guys that are owned in more leagues than him. In 3 of his 4 starts he’s been a great starting option and I don’t think that will change. He’ll have some down weeks, this is just his second year as a starter and he was hurt a lot last season – but he’ll have 3 good games out of every 4 and with Andre Johnson out wide, they could be really big games. AJ is a beast!

  7. Despite losing Roy Williams, it seems to be a great deal for the Lions. They’ll probably start Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, two sure-handed wideouts that can do work over the middle of the field. I actually think this is not only good for the franchise (1st, 3rd, 6th picks next draft) – but it’s good for Calvin Johnson too. CJ won’t have competition on deep balls and while he might see more double teams, he’ll have an even better season without Roy along side him.

  8. The Chiefs are so dumb. They hold onto Tony Gonzalez when a 3rd round pick was for the taking. Gonzo is really good and he’s 32, they weren’t getting anything more than that and they could have gotten help in the future. If they didn’t draft so crappy this would have been an even better deal. I guess they probably considered the fact that they’d probably reach for a DT and miss on that selection, thus there was no reason to get any pick. I thin Gonzo continues to be a solid TE even though his squad is a short one line joke.

  9. Shaun Alexander – haha – I hope he doesn’t steal end-zone looks from Portis. I don’t think he will and he shouldn’t be picked up, so let someone else make that mistake.

  10. Go RAYS, Go!!! Sorry baseball haters, I had to – gotta love them young guns in Tampa – do work sons!

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 6

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. This is the review of that stuff from Week 6 – how’d I do this week? Well, 125 points ain’t bad, but I was looking for magic 150… 

QB: Tony Romo vs. Arizona: The Cowboys lose, but Romo goes for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns (one fumble, no picks) to tally up 28 points for my guys this week. It feels good to get him right before he goes down. 

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: 111 yards but he fumbled twice and didn’t score. He caught one ball for -5 yards, but believe it or not that’s a point. 8 points for AP and he almost fumbled the game away to the Lions. Not a good day for my guy. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Atlanta: 7th rated running back with 21 fantasy points, but is Forte breaking down a bit? His yards per carry average has struggled the last few weeks. Still, 76 rushing, 34 receiving, and a touchdown – Forte continues to be a force. 

FLEX: Ronnie Brown: Top 10 RB with 18 fantasy points, but I don’t think his 13 carries were enough, and a Dolphins loss shows me that. Still, Ronnie scored and totaled 93 yards offensively. 

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Seattle: 5 grabs for 84 yards and a score. I watched Greg drop one, but he’s one of the best receivers in the game. He plays just like Anquan Boldin – the guy is a beast. 19 points for Jennings. 

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Arizona: Didn’t do much, not enough to win anyway, the Cardinals had TO on lockdown all day long, and Owens looked pretty frustrated. A couple nice blocks by TO, but that doesn’t make up for his 

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: 4 catches for 55 yards, and the Cowboys just couldn’t do enough in Arizona. Jason had one of his worst gams of the season but still finished as a Top 10 TE with 9 fantasy points. 

K: Josh Scobee vs. Denver: Weird, Scobee didn’t do anything worth while. 3 extra points and a field goal for 7 fantasy points. Great. 

D: New York Giants vs. Cleveland: Ugh…. – 0 points – that was a nice one to wait for. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Jason Campbell: Jason only had 9 fantasy points, and it cost his team a win. The Redskins needed to do more through the air, and fumble the ball less. Not a lost week for Jason, but still, not worth much more than a C- for me. 

David Garrard: 16 fantasy points for David, not a top score this week but not horrible either. He was bound to do some good work against the Broncos secondary, everyone does. B

Gus Frerotte: 15 points this week, not too shabby at all. 296 yards and a touchdown with one pick. B

Fred Taylor: Fred went down with a concussion in Week 6, then Jones Drew ran all over the Broncos. It hurts a little bit inside, but you see where I was going with this one, right? 1 fumble, 20 total yards – 0 fantasy points – F

Willis McGahee: Gross. F

Lance Moore: 7 catches for 97 yards, no score, but I’ll take 16 fantasy points from a bye week filler pick up any day. B+

Steve Breaston: # 5 overall amongst wide receivers this week – 8 grabs for 102 yards and a touchdown, you have to like what Breaston is doing. A+

Devin Hester: 6 grabs for 87 yards, no score, but in PPR that’s a nice day, 14 fantasy points – get him now before he finds another roster. B+

Greg Olsen: 3 grabs for 41 yards, 7 fantasy points ain’t bad for a TE. 

Washington Redskins: Not bad, but they lost, I can’t be too excited about that. Still, they didn’t allow any yards, holding Jackson under 80 and Bulger only got to 130 something because of a late drive. But they lost, so I will just hate them until they don’t lose to St. Freaking Louis. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

J.T. O’Sullivan: 199 yards 2 picks one fumble no touchdowns – right? I win this one. 

Edgerrin James: 29 rushing yards, his backup had 8 fantasy points – 8-2 backup to starter – your welcome. 

Jamal Lewis: 88 yards and a touchdown, right about two wrong about two others. I definitely missed this one as Jamal played well against the Super Bowl Champs. 

Steve Smith: 6 catches for 112 yards, so yea, I was wrong about this one. 

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 6

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I didn’t win another week, but headed into Monday Night I needed an underdog Cleveland cover to finish a tough start Week 6 at .500 – it’s always nice to pull out of a week at even after going 0-4 to start your morning. 

Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) The Ravens laid a big freaking egg, and even if the Colts played terrible they would have covered this game. 3 points? Ugh – 5 Joe Flacco turnovers didn’t help. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: (LOSS) But, I picked this game with the understanding that Carson Palmer would play. I told you all in my Five for Friday that the Bengals are no longer a good bet at +6 – I’m taking this loss, but only because of my good nature – there is no way I would have taken Cinci without Palmer. But as you saw, this game was not walk through for the Jets, it was close throughout. 

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) The Panthers laid a huge egg as well – looks like I was picking some chickens this week. The Bucs came out and slapped the Panthers around pretty good. 

Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) Damn Chicago! No, really, there were some plays in this game that just magically went the Falcons way. Matt Ryan had a huge day through the air, but he through a couple passes that were sure thing interceptions, jut the Bears couldn’t manage to get their hands wrapped around the ball. I watched this game from kickoff until Jason Elam’s game winning field goal, and Atlanta must have had 3rd and long almost 10 times during the game. They got it every freaking time. That’s weird. I think I picked the right side here, but my 4th straight loss came hard. 

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): (WIN) Finally a win. The Saints anhilated the Raiders, just like I thought they would. Lane Kiffin was a good coach, maybe dumb dumb will see that by the time Oakland gets blown out for the 10th straight time. 

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): (LOSS) Detroit should have won this game, and obviously they covered easily. Minnesota looks absolutely lost and if it wasn’t for a gift pass interference call by some hopeless zebra, the Lions would have their first win – on the road against their division rival. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: (WIN) I thought this game might come down to the wire. Houston got it done with 3 seconds to go, but my Dolphins still covered. That’s what I like to call brilliant. I was hoping Houston would get a win, their talent deserves more than what they’ve got in the win column thus far, and I was also hoping to cover. Both happened Sunday. 

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): (LOSS) Rams win. Yep, 4 fumble turnovers for the Redskins, and the Rams (thought they didn’t do anything all day offensively) get the win in Washington, crushing survivor pool hopes everywhere. This huge spread should have ran me off – what was I thinking?

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) When Maurice Jones Drew gets the ball 20+ times the Jags are almost always going to win. Now if they’d just realize that. Jacksonville walked into Denver and handled the Broncos. They were more physical and took advantage of the Broncos soft defensive front. Oh, and the Broncos secondary is bad too. Weird. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WIN) It was sure close going into the 4th quarter, but Philly snapped out of it, and took advantage of some Mike Martz play calling and what do you know, I get another much needed win for this week. 

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) The Cardinals were apparently the play here. Dallas looked lost, and you have to wonder how they’ll do with Tony Romo (their most consistent player) out for 4 weeks. Hmmm… Arizona took this game one a blocked punt in overtime, and my dreams of a last second overtime touchdown for the Cowboys were dismantled. But at least the Cowboys lost, that will make a family Lucky Lester happy as usual. 

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WIN) “Stay away from Washington sports.” The Huskies had a bye week, but the Cougars lost to Oregon State by about 50 easily failing to cover in that game. The Hawks played without Matt Hasselbeck and they looked bad. The Packers did pretty much anything they wanted, and the Hawks are really looking bad lately. 

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): (WIN) And this one was easy breazy. The Chargers came out and did anything they wanted to do. They threw deep, they threw shallow, and while LT continued to struggle with his yards per carry, he even looked reasonably close to the Old LT on Sunday Night. I’ll take this one and wonder about the Patriots moving forward. 

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But “…the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.” Well, I picked this one right on the button and it brought me to even on the week. I’ll take it. On to Week 7!!!