College Football Betting: NCAA Week 11 2009 Review

I put together another winning Week in NCAA football, and it’s all starting to come together. This week I took games from Tuesday to Sunday, and I found a lot of winners in big conference match-ups, finishing 9-6 overall. What will a crazy Week 12 bring? Lets check out the review for Week 11 first. Here goes!

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Ohio Bobcats (+3) @ Buffalo Bulls: (WINNER) The Bobcats may have needed a late field goal to get the win, but they outplayed the Bulls – and that’s why they got the win. It’s always good to start out with a victory.

Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas: (Loss) This is what I get for picking against the Chipps. CMU put up 28 points in the 2nd quarter alone, tying the Rockets totals for the entire game. Toledo just couldn’t get it going, got some tough breaks, had a couple dropped balls, and just flat out couldn’t stop Dan LeFevour. The Chipps won by 28. That was 13 too many for me!

Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (+3) (Loss) This was tied at halftime, 14-14. That didn’t last too long into the second half as Bowling Green came out throwing, and defensively shutting down the Redhawks. 21 unanswered points later, the Falcons took me down, ousting Miami-Ohio 35-14. Sorry about this one.

South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1): (WINNER) The Scarlet Knights dominated this game. Face it, with Tom Savage at quarterback, these Knights are very efficient, look how they’ve played since he became the starter. They are 7-1 with just a loss to Pittsburgh. They deserve more credit, until they get that, they have nice value.

West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats: (WINNER) West Virginia battled all night with the Bearcats. Some will say that WVU had a late and seemingly meaningless score, ha, they played the Bearcats tough all game long, and were in it from start to finish, just like I said, 10 was too much.

Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack: (WINNER) C.J. Spiller: best college football player I’ve seen this year. He almost outscored the Wolf Pack all by himself, throwing, rushing for, and catching a touchdown, Spiller was responsible for 3 TDs – the Pack scored just 23. If it was just C.J. versus the Pack, it would have been close, but Spiller got to use his teammates to help on Saturday, proving to be too much for N.C. State.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils: (WINNER) The Yellow Jackets annihilated the Blue Devils, showing that while the Duke program is improving, they have a long way to go. GT just had too much power and swag, dominating this contest all the way through.

Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers: (Loss)The Wolverines weren’t looking so bad going into half, down just 21-17, but the Badgers did work in the second half, scoring 24 points to the Wolverines’ 7. One has to wonder how long Coach Rodriguez will have that job in Michigan. Maybe Notre Dame will hire him?

Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3): (Loss) After being up 13-10 going into the half, the Commodores remembered how they collected those first 8 losses on the season, and sure enough, the managed to duplicate the feat and give up 14 points in the 2nd half while scoring none. When you pick teams that lose, sometimes they manage to show you exactly why they do so.

Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears: (Loss) The Cats really ruined a chance for a big match-up further down the line, and a chance to really take their program up a notch when they just flat out didn’t make big plays against the Bears. Cal played like they wanted it more, if was definitely a tough one to stomach, despite the competitiveness of the game and the close score, I think this Arizona team should beat the Bears 8 of 10 times they play. This was one of those two…

Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11): (WINNER) I said the line wouldn’t matter here, and I was dead on, just like I wrote, the Beavers were the Huskies worst nightmare, further proving that while the Huskies can hang around against throwing teams, these running powerhouse’s just dominate the Dawgs.

UCLA Bruins (+18) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) The Bruins did everything I thought they’d do, dominate the Cougars from snap to end game, and they did it a lot of ways. In my write up I said, “just because teh Bruins only average about 20 points a game doesn’t mean they won’t put up 30+” and I couldn’t have called it better. I also mentioned that if the game was “any closer than 35-10 I would be absolutely stunned”. Not stunned.

Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels (+3.5): (WINNER) I really liked the Tar Heels chances with capitalizing on Miami mistakes, and just like I predicted, that became a huge part of this game. The Heels didn’t keep it as low scoring as I imagined, but that’s because they put up tons of points against the Canes. A nice upset on the road for a growing Tar Heel program.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (WINNER) The Irish were outmatched and out-manned in this one, but they fought back late to get me the cover. An Irish loss, a cover for me – it couldn’t get much better. What did I learn from this game? If Charlie Weis has a job in football next season, he has Golden Tate to thank, because without that guy’s turbo button, I think the Irish wouldn’t have made a bowl game this year.

East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Hurricane (-5.5): (Loss)Tulsa not only lost, they got smacked around. Favored by 5 against an East Carolina team that couldn’t seem to muster an ounce of offense last week was too much for them. ECU’s defense scored more than Tulsa’s offense – never a good sign. Sunday NCAA loss for me.

NCAA Football Free Picks Review: Week 8 2009

Well, 7-6 this week for my college football picks, not great but at least I finished up. I had a couple really tough games that I really feel should have covered, Cal against WSU, Army turning into a fumbling problem against Rutgers and falling just short of a cover, and Duke straight dukeing me with their 4 point win as a 4.5 point favorite. Ugh. But like I said, I had more wins than losses despite some tough games – can’t hate that too much. Here’s my review.

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Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5) @ Kansas Jayhawks: (WINNER) “This is one of those fantastic situations that shows you how much Top 25 rankings really mean. The Sooners are missing at least 2 First Round NFL Draft picks, one of which won the Heisman Trophy last season, Sam Bradford, and was pretty universally listed as the Top NFL Prospect in all the land heading into the season. They are heading into 6-1, 21st ranked Kansas to play the Jayhawks, and who’s favored? The Sooners, by a touchdown, and get ready for this, they are a good bet. Rankings are a joke, it’s too bad they mean anything at all. I’ll take the unranked road favorites here. Believe it.” And the Sooners killed Kansas, weird. Rankings… JOKE!

Washington State Cougars @ California Golden Bears (-35): (LOSS) This one should have been a cover, easily, but the Bears fell asleep, and lightening struck, all in the same 5 minute portion of this game. After WSU threw a 68 yard touchdown pass, Cal did absolutely nothing as promptly as possible on the next series, giving WSU just enough time to toss another TD before the half. In the 2nd half, the Bears had no reason to hurry, they scored just enough to not get a cover, I hate both these teams. There it is.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Army Black Knights (+10): (LOSS) A great thing about Army is that they rarely turn the ball over. They don’t make dumb throws, they run the ball hard and gain yardage the tough way. And they did that on Friday Night, they just couldn’t hold onto the ball. A couple tough fumbles stopped drives deep in Rutgers territory, and Army doesn’t have a chance if that happens. Playing from behind – not their strength. Still it was just 20-10 after three quarters, and Army definitely had their chances to cover. Rutgers did enough, and I got the loss.

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Oregon Ducks (-8.5) @ Washington Huskies: (WINNER) This one was just too easy. In fact, take this advice, if the Huskies are facing a prolific rushing attack, they are a great fade! Oregon mauled the Dogs, and I was pretty impressed with everything the Ducks did offensively in the second half. In the first half this one was close, but they took to running the ball and finding wide open places in play action, never looking back after an early 3rd quarter score.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+2) @ Michigan State Spartans: (WINNER)  “The Hawkeyes have gotten by in ugly fashion, sure, and they are probably due for a loss, but their fights have shown me how resilient they are, and that alone is worth a small bet to me, especially against a Spartan team that is also due to have a tough go of it after three straight wins. Against my normal system play (unrated favorite over ranked dog is almost always a bet on the favorite) but I like Iowa’s chances on the road.” Obviously the Hawkeyes probably have no place in the Top 5 in the Nation, but they do find a way to win, and while it is almost always ugly, there’s something to be said about getting a win despite all odds against you. This was what I expected it to be, to the last minute, the one where Iowa got the W.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-4) @ Michigan Wolverines: (WINNER)  “In two games against decent teams this season (Iowa and Michigan State) the Wolverines were out-gained in total yardage. They lost both of those games. Penn State has out-gained every single opponent they’ve played so far this season. I’m just saying.” It’s things like this, that when I find them, it makes me wish I could find that great statistic headed into every match-up. Some teams need that ball control to win games, the Wolverines need to keep their defense off the field. If you out-gain them, you have a great chance of winning. Easy victory here.

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Boston College Golden Eagles (+8) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: (WINNER) The Eagles struggle when teams have the ability to run the ball with speed and power. That’s not the Irish. Sure, they have some talent, and some big boys up front, but when it comes right down to it, they are a foo-foo offense that likes to throw the ball when going gets tough, or right off the bat for that matter. That should allow the discipline Golden Eagles to stay in this game, and cover that 8 point spread against a Irish team with a defense that just can’t get stops. ND might win, with the luck of the Irish and all, but I like the Eagles to cover.

Florida State Seminoles (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels: (WINNER) Florida State made it tough, getting stymied early in this one, struggling offensively, and not stopping the Heels when they needed to. But all evened out in the second half, and that electric Seminole offense that I expected to play well got it together in just enough time to win outright in Carolina, giving me a much needed Thursday Night victory.

South Florida Bulls (+7) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (LOSS) “The Panthers don’t blow good teams out, they aren’t that kid of squad.” One way or another, I was certainly wrong here, maybe every way possible, hell, I don’t know. Pittsburgh is either a lot better than I thought, the Bulls are not as good as I thought, the cards didn’t fall the way I expected, or all three of those things were infinitely true in this one. Either way, I lose, the Panthers jumped all over the Bulls early, and my quote haunts me…

Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5) @ Mississippi Rebels: (LOSS) Arkansas had their chances to keep this game close, and even more chances to get back in it, but they never could make that stop, and Jevan Snead was on his game on Saturday. The Razorbacks couldn’t move the ball at all in the 4th quarter, and found it increasingly difficult to get off the field on defense. This is the Ole Miss team people expected to see through the first 7 weeks… Nice of them to show up here.

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UConn Huskies (+7.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: (WINNER) “The Connecticut Huskies are as good as any team West Virginia has played thus far, and the Mountaineers haven’t impressed me with their ability to step on the gas.” This was basically it. UConn is a pretty darn good team, and they played hard from start to finish. A lot of things West Virginia did went well, but they just don’t know how to step on it against a good team. Both teams played well, the Huskies came up a little bit short, but covered easily.

Maryland Terrapins @ Duke Blue Devils (-4.5): (LOSS) How about Duke covering easily in the 3rd quarter up 17-6, Maryland doing nothing offensively all day long – perfect. But wait, this is Duke, and I’m Lucky Lester, and Duke and Lucky Lester don’t go hand in hand. So then Dukes gives up a 67 yard touchdown pass on 3rd and 19. Seriously, they don’t write it better than this. So Duke’s up only, what, 4, yes a point not enough. But wait, Duke is driving in the 4th, in sure to score and cover zone at the 9, and what now? Oh, perfect, a Duke turnover, a 4 point win, no cover for me. Perfect freaking day, Duke wins, I bet on Duke, I lose. Ugh. By a point.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-7.5) @ UTEP Miners: (LOSS) Tulsa played one quarter in this game, the 3rd, and hell, maybe their single quarter of play leaked into the 4th, at which point they were up 11 and looking like they finally figured it out, and on the path to a big win and easy cover. But they forgot they had one more quarter. In that quarter, they allowed 15 points, they scored none, they not only failed to cover, but lost the game altogether. Serves them right!

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 13


Well, 5-12 isn’t as good as 14-5, that’s for sure, but that still leaves me 2 games over .500 in the last two weeks. College football can sure have some tough bounces, no question about that. There’s only a couple more weeks left for a chance at redemption from this terrible time I had in Week 13 – we’ll see if I can’t bust it up next time around. Here’s a list of the game I played with wins or losses listed on the side. 

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Louisville Cardinals (+7): (Loss) 

Army (+19) @ Rugters: (Loss) 

North Carolina State @ North Carolina (-10.5): (Loss)

Clemson @ Virginia (+3): (Loss)

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-3): (Loss)

Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas State (-4): (WINNER)

Stanford @ California (-9): (WINNER)

Boston College @ Wake Forest (-2): (Loss)

Louisiana Tech (-6) @ New Mexico State: (Loss)

Idaho (+23.5) @ Hawaii: (Loss)

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Northwestern Wildcats (+2.5): (Winner)

Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins (-1): (Loss)

BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes (-6.5): (Winner)

Washington (-7.5) @ Washington State: (Loss)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6) @ Oklahoma Sooners: (Loss)

Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: (Winner)

Mississippi @ LSU (-5): (Loss)

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 9

Well, it wasn’t well worth your time, I know, but I came out 1 game over .500 at 10-9 on the week. If you headed my advice and didn’t bet much on my two “maybe you should stay away” games, then you did a little better than me. All that said, here’s my review of this weekend’s games. 

Boston College Eagles @ North Carolina Tar Heels (-3): (WINNER) “You know my love affair with unranked favorites over ranked opponents – lets do it again this week. I know the Heels are without their starting quarterback and their stud receiver, but I like them against a weak Boston College team.” And like them I shall. North Carolina hammered the Eagles. 

Kentucky Wildcats (+26) @ Florida Gators: (LOSS) Apparently the injuries were worse than I thought. Either that or Florida is awesome. Maybe both? Kentucky got embarrassed by the Gators on Saturday. In turn, I got embarrassed. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-2) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: (WINNER) “I know the history here. I know the Nittany Lions haven’t won at Ohio State in my lifetime (does that date me?) – but I’m not so sure that means jack right now.” And that didn’t mean jack. The Lions were the better football team and I wasn’t the only person to see that. Despite a very tough football game and losing their starting quarterback late, the Lions pressed on and took out OSU on the road.  

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10) @ Washington Huskies: (WINNER) Notre Dame did everything and anything they wanted. UW did get two sacks on the day, making that 5 for the entire season. On Monday Ty Willingham announced that he will be stepping down at the end of the season. It’s too bad, I like the guy, but it was something that needed to happen. 

Oklahoma Sooners (+18.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: (WINNER) It may have been tight, and maybe the Wildcats should have covered in this one, but I didn’t need that last field goal to cover, as 20 points would have been just fine for me. The Sooners are that much better than the Wildcats, conference game or not. 

Wyoming Cowboys @ TCU Horned Frogs (-30): (WINNER) I was thinking about 40-3 in this one and it ended up 54-7. TCU’s 30-0 2nd half helped pull to covers over Wyoming’s unsuspecting heads. This one was done in the 3rd – gotta love that. 

South Florida Bulls (-3) @ Louisville Cardinals: (LOSS) And Louisville wins at home against their conference rival. A game they almost surely should lose. The Big East can really get you in the guts. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks (-1): (LOSS) “Maybe I’m crazy but I like the Jayhawks here because they are at home and promise a more balanced attack and defensive game plan than the Raiders. That being said, this is a TT game and anything can happen. This is my smallest play of the week, but a play nonetheless.” Go ahead, mark it down, I was crazy when I made this pick. Texas Tech is legit, they will give Texas troubles next Saturday. Kansas just didn’t have it. After a 14-14 1st quarter, Tech outscored Kansas 49-7. You betcha. I hope your play was small like mine. 

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies (+2.5): (WINNER) A nice outright win by the Huskies? Try 40-16. After being down at the half, UCONN came out and put up 30 second half points, limiting the Bearcats to just one field goal. This was a nice cover for me. 

Central Michigan Chippewas (-4) @ Toledo: (LOSS) The Chipps needed a 4th quarter touchdown to finally pull ahead of a fighting Toledo squad, and I couldn’t get that extra field goal I needed to push. It’s alright, I freaking hate pushing. Well I guess getting your money back is better than losing it. Who knew?

Fresno State Bulldogs (-14) @ Utah State Aggies: (LOSS) “I’ll warn you that somewhere over 70% of the public is on the Bulldogs here and the lines are still moving up and away. Maybe it’s not as easy as I see,” I hope you listened to the advice I couldn’t listen to myself. I hate when I do that, but as long as you folks are doing alright I’ll call it even. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+12.5) @ Texas Longhorns: (WINNER) Oklahoma came out fighting and almost ended the Longhorn’s perfect season. Tough game for sure, one of the better battles in football this season. The Longhorns won 28-24, and I covered this pick easily. 

UCLA Bruins (+18) @ California Golden Bears: (LOSS) This was a TERRIBLE BEAT, let me tell you that. Cal scored 24 fourth quarter points on way to covering the spread by 3. I capped this game right on the money, expcept the money slipped out from under my hands and went straight down the gutter when freakish points started going on the board in the 4th. Oh well, that’s sports. 

Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: (LOSS) The Seminoles won by 10, which means I don’t cover anything. The 3rd quarter got me, and Virginia Tech looked a little out of sorts on Saturday. It’s tough when the team you’re betting on loses their most athletic player, and starting quarterback, before he throws one single pass. Oh, and then they lose their 2nd string guy later in the game. I lost, but you see where I’m coming from here? Lady Luck peed on my salad in this game. 

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies (-7.5): (LOSS) NIU pulled this one out, but a field goal win is a loss for me. Damned Huskies. 

New Mexico State Aggies (-12.5) @ Idaho Vandals: (LOSS) I’m officially taking Idaho out of my “always bet against Washington Schools” motto. They pulled a huge upset on the Aggies this week. I was sure Idaho wouldn’t be winning again this year. The MAC is killing me! 

Mississippi Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5): (WINNER) The Bulldogs won, which makes me happy, and hte Razorbacks covered, which makes me even happier. I needed some 4th quarter heroics to get this one in, and Arkansas put up two touchdowns to Mississippi’s 10 points. That’ll do, that’ll do. 

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Monroe (+2.5): (WINNER) “In conference home dog – I’ll take it. I like UL’s signal caller, that’s enough for me to lean on the home dogs here.” Well, Monroe didn’t win, but when you are a dog you get points, and when you get points and lose by 1, you win. That’s right, I got a little luck with this small school battle. I’ll take it.  

Nevada Wolfpacks @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+3.5): (WINNER) “Hawaii is at home against a Nevada team that has 4 unimpressive wins over unimpressive opponents. I’ll take Hawaii. They look to be getting it together a little behind their new coach.” Hawaii in Hawaii is tough. I thought the Warriors should have been favored by a field goal in this one and they played like it. This was a battle down to the last drive, but Hawaii pulled it out, winning by 7.

NCAA Football Picks REVIEW: Week 7

I finally had a terrible week, and like everyone knows, it is bound to happen some time. Before I have a huge rebound week, here’s where things went wrong this Saturday. 

Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5): Boy, Sam Bradford had 5 touchdowns passes and a gaggle of yards, but it was Texas’s ability to run the ball on short yardage situations and win the line of scrimmage that gave them this game. To my credit, Oklahoma was walking away with this one early until their best defensive player went out for the game with injury. I’m not sure how it would have ended up, but feel me on this one. 

Arizona Wildcats (-6) @ Stanford Cardinal: And Arizona falls to Stanford. Every time a school in the Pac 10 starts to separate themselves from the rest of the disgusting pack, to say, “wait, there’s a couple good teams in the Pac 10” they lose to a very bad conference opponent. This week’s losers of street credit, the Wildcats – thanks for playing boys. 

Washington State @ Oregon State (-30): YAY! A win is a win, and it’s even nicer to win when you lose so many games you can’t see stop signs because of the teary blurr. Ah, it wasn’t so bad, every once in a while you lose a week – this week was tough for Ole Lucky. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-20): TT barely won this week as upset Saturday was in everybody’s cards except the Nittany Lions – ha. Anyway, I can’t believe this game was close – tough week for me. 

LSU Tigers (+6) @ Florida Gators: The Gators showed where the talent has been going lately. Florida had way too much speed and athleticism for the Tigers and it showed on just about every play. Florida killed LSU in ever phase of the game. Tebow was back to his old self. Florida, when playing well defensively, is one of the Nation’s Top 3 teams. 

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers (+5.5): “If the Badgers proved anything last week, it’s that they play great football at home.” If they proved anything this week it’s that they can play absolutely terrible at home too, or that Penn State is going to be playing in the National Championship game – maybe both. 

Boise State Broncos (-10.5) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Boise State pulled this one out 24-7 and I get a little happiness back in my soul. 

Tulsa Hurricane (-24.5) @ Southern Methodist Mustangs: Damn good coaching. SMU almost pulled this one out, meaning that 24.5 point spread i had to cover didn’t quite make it. 

Idaho Vandals @ Fresno State Bulldogs (-34): Fresno played like absolute garbage. Nobody in college football should give up so many points to the vandals. Needless to say I was crushed by the Bulldogs in this one. 

Air Force Falcons (-10.5) @ San Diego State Aztecs: 28 unanswered 2nd half points allowed Air Force to walk away with an easy win here, giving my a much needed 4th win on the season. So it didn’t end so bad after all… Okay, it was bad, my 5 games over .500 last week went right back to even as I finished Week Seven 3-7… Ugh. Better next week.