Monthly Archives: September 2008

One for Wednesday: Week 3

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I just thought I’d throw out some of my crazy uncle’s predictions that don’t look so good right now – ready? Here’s 13 big ones for him to dig out of his mouth with his foot…

  1. Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns. (this one isn’t going to pan out, bet your balls on that)
  2. LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (Chris Johnson is filthy good)
  3. Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (Splinter’s evil plan)
  4. Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (a long way from Top 10)
  5. So will Greg Olsen. (more drops and fumbles than catches I reckon)
  6. Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (injury, I know, and after week 1 it looked like a decent bet)
  7. Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (tough schedule thus far)
  8. LT scores in each of his first four games to start the season. (nope)
  9. Ryan Grant is going to be a beast – 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns are not out of the question (not with those hammys).
  10. Deuce McAllister will lead the Saints in rushing yards -even on 3 bad knees. (2 games in, he has 2 rushing attempts, seems like a longshot Unc)
  11. Tarvaris Jackson – 20+ touchdowns for the Vikings. (told you no)
  12. Marvin Harrison catches 80+ balls and scores between 8-12 times. (looks like a 3rd option)
  13. Maurice Jones Drew – 200+ carries for 1200+ yards and scores at least 14 times – and welcome to JD being a Top 5 fantasy pick for the next 4 years. (doesn’t look good for our main man)

****Now, he has some nice predictions too, but those will be recognized later, for now, these are the bad ones – funny how quick some predictions can look so far-fetched, huh? Viva la old man!

Ten for Tuesday: Week 3

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1. Eddie Royal is still for real. In the one league I didn’t draft Royal in, I just traded for him. Ha. After what Brandon Marshall did to the Chargers I have a feeling more coverage is headed his way. The fact that Royal got the game tying touchdown and the game winning two point conversion thrown his way is just an example of Splinter’s trust in his young ninja turtle – grab him if you can.

2. Darren McFadden is a stud – weird. For those of you that thought D-Mac was going to fall on his face and struggle in his first year running the ball in the NFL game – you are silly rabbits. Anyone can see that this kid has all the running ability and vision in the world. He’s a beast – let that be known.

3. Jonathan Stewart is going to be the man. Yes, DeAngelo Williams will get his carries, but I’m willing to bet that J-Stew finishes the years with more carries, more touchdowns, a better ypc average, and more catches out of the back-field. Both will be an option, which is why either one is a tough start, but if you have both and have to choose one, I’m going with the rookie.

4. Jay Cutler is a top 5 fantasy quarterback – and maybe even more efficient on the football field. Right now, mine go like this for the rest of the season – Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Donavan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner – yes, I may be going out on a bit of a limb here, but I like three ahead of Peyton and one just behind, and Warner might push Manning for his spot.

5. Randy Moss: Now is as good a time as ever to grab the tall receiver. He didn’t do dick last week, and people were already questioning his chances with Super Tom off the field for the season. Let me tell you this – Randy is still a top 5 receiver, and anybody that thinks otherwise doesn’t deserve to have him on their team. So go for the jugular and snipe him away for something way under value – like Santana Moss (if you can). I love me some Randy touchdowns.

6. Marion Barber is a beast. I wouldn’t be stunned if Barber puts up 20 touchdowns this year, hell, I expect that much. Barber is a beast and that Cowboy offense is sadistically good. Barber is a touchdown machine and nobody runs tougher. If you didn’t listen to my predictions and grab Barber early, you are probably too late, but if someone offers him to you, take it and run with it.

7. Unless it’s LT. That’s right, don’t trade LT. He’s still going to go off, probably as early as the Jets. New York has played decent against the run in their first two games, but that won’t last. If LT plays, and I expect he will, I’m predicting 150 yards and a couple touchdowns. After two down weeks in a row, and sounds of a toe injury, it might be a good time to try and plunder superman from his unsuspecting owner. Make it happen.

8. 150, 140, 3 scores: Kurt Warner knows who to throw the ball to apparently. Larry Fitz collected the most yardage from his 6 grabs, while Boldin finished just behind him with 140 yards – but those three scores helped fantasy owners win all over this week. Both receiving options are studs, and both will have brilliant seasons if they stay healthy. If you were smart enough to draft Boldin despite all the “trade me” talk and pre-season hysteria, then you are looking brilliant now. Doesn’t it feel good?

9. J.T. O’Sullivan to the rescue: And after week 1 everyone dropped this guy figuring “no way is he going to put up Mike Martz numbers,” c’mon guys – that’s why you never practice premature edropulation. O’Sullivan will be putting the ball up a lot this year, and many of his passes will be to a running back in Frank Gore that has all the ability to make a lot out of a little. Feel free to pick him up if he’s available. Against sloppy secondaries, which there are a lot of in the NFC, J.T. will be a solid option all year long – same for Bryant Johnson for that matter. After an injury plagued pre-season, Johnson looks like a big fast Martz #1 – can’t hate on that.

10: Maybe the Patriots aren’t that bad after-all. Check out last week’s stuff – this team is still legit, and Matt Cassell will only get better as the season goes on. Remember, this last week was his first start since high-school… Take that Matt Leinart!!!

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 2

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Two weeks, two winners. That’s right, for the second straight week I picked every game the NFL had to offer and came out on top of the books. A little luck, a lot of plusses and minuses to consider, and here I am, 8 games over .500 after two weeks. My first week, 10-6, my second week, 9-5-1. That puts me at 19-11-1. This is how Week 2 went wild.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them.” Fargas got hurt, but he was off to a nice start before he went out. McFadden rushed for 160 yards and Michael Bush toted the rock for 90 yards himself. Needless to say, the Raiders relied on the run and it carried them to an easy victory over the Chiefs. I WIN!

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (PUSH) Not much to say here, it was a tough game to cap and this is why. The Panthers aren’t a great home team, they don’t play well when favored, but the Bears are just the Bears, and not much to be worried about. It came down to the wire, but Jonathan Stewart’s touchdown put the Panther’s up 3 to stay and I pushed.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) Up 24-15 going into the 4th quarter, the Saints were looking like a nice selection right around a pick’em. But the Redskins fought hard at home, and Jim Zorn got his first victory of the season. New Orleans was back to running the ball very poorly and Washington threw all over the Saints’ secondary as Jason Campbell put up over 300 yards through the air. The Redskins scored 14 unanswered in the 4th and took home the win.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) “I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road.” As it was Adrian Peterson went off for 160 rushing yards but it wasn’t enough as Peyton lead his squad down the field to win this one late. Peyton still has his rust, and it might not be warn off by next Sunday, but he had enough to make my prediction ring true, 300+ yards for the dumpy faced Colt QB.

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) The Giants seemingly did anything they wanted to the Rams, and this wasn’t a close contest at all. St. Louis looks really bad, and I have to believe that Scott Linnehan’s future is starting to look grim in St. Louis. Eli followed the lead of his fellow poo-faced brother and really tossed the ball around the Rams secondary, putting up 40+ points on the Rams to show what the Eagles did wasn’t a fluke.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.” This one was close, and even with a poor offensive effort the Jags were leading headed down to the final minutes. But, Trent Edwards showed what he can do and orchestrated a nice game winning touchdown drive to end this thing. This was a solid bet.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) I still think I capped this game right. The Bucs were definitely out to make Matt Ryan beat them, and he couldn’t do anything close to that. Tampa stacked their line against the run and shut down Week 1’s rushing leader, Michael Turner. Earnest Graham looked legit again in less than 20 carries of action, and the Brian Griese led Bucs iced the Falcons and just wouldn’t allow touchdowns. Anyway, I’ll take the loss here.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) What can I say, when it rains, it floods the Hawks, that’s for sure. As if the fact that they were starting Logan Payne at receiver wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks lost Payne to a season ending knee injury in the first quarter. Ridiculous. I read somewhere, “Was Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 or was it the Seahawks receiving corps?” Good accurate question there. Seattle still had a chance late, but really, they looked bad throughout this contest. THe only guys that looked good were Julius Jones and John Carlson. Either way, the 49ers won and my +220 bet I made felt really good when that game winning field goal went through the uprights. Your +9 looked brilliant throughout I’m sure.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.” Warner was 19/24 for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bolding caught 6 balls for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald caught 6 balls for 153 yards. Seems like I took care of this game before it happened. Gotta love that.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): No game this week – will be played on November 9th.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Steelers looked like they dominated this game, but they never scored again after Hines Ward’s touchdown, and 10 was enough to keep the Browns winless to start the season. Ben’s shoulder hurt a bit and it showed, as the Steelers just did their best to run out the clock. I really feel like I got a raw deal here, but since I did pretty well this week I’ll just shrug it off.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) “Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week.” This game was easy to pick, but then the Lions fought back, but they then decided to be the Lions again and lose by a 48-25 margin. Brilliant. This was basically free money, and I hope you cashed in.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:  (WINNER) “Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.” Uh, yeah. When I said “free money” i meant “free money”.

San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: (LOSS) The Chargers didn’t deserve to win this game despite the terrible call that handed the Broncos a victory late. That may sound weird, but the Broncos dominated this contest, and if it weren’t for some amazing plays down the stretch the Chargers wouldn’t have been close. Shanny’s balls to go for it to win the game… priceless. I lose this one, but it was as close as it gets, no doubt about that.

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank.” I am still giggling a bit, as the Patriots made Brett Favre’s addition look like a meaningless free agent signing. That’s right folks, even without our favorite quarterback, the Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. Viva la free money!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): (LOSS)  Wow. What a game. The Eagles held the lead after a couple Cowboy mistakes early, but after McNabb put the ball on the turf in the 4th quarter, the Cowboys took the lead for good. A late drive couldn’t cut it for the Eagles, but they did cover, making me a loser for the 5th time this week. Still, after 15 games I was 9-5-1, not too shabby.

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 3

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I started the week 1 game under .500 but by the time Baylor rolled up Washington State I was actually even to start Saturday’s games. I had 17 games this week behind the DirecTV GamePlan picks and my other 7 games – this is how all 17 went down. With one game postponed (texas/arkansas) I put up a 12-4-1 record this week, losing a couple close ones and pretty much dominating the books in Week 3 – so far this season I’m 7 games over .500. Yhatzee. Stay tuned for next week, here’s this week’s review…

Washington State Cougars @ Baylor Bears (+2): (WINNER) “Rule of thumb for 2008 college football season: If the Washington State Cougars are ever favored, make sure to bet against them. More so, if the Cougars are on the road and favored, first make sure they are playing against, at the very least, a division 2 program or greater. If they indeed are, say Baylor for example, go ahead and pick against the Cougars and feel 99% safe about your bet.” Did I say 99%? I meant 100%. This was like buying a stock that had a 100% chance of doubling. Basically, it was a nice little bet.

Michigan Wolverines (pk) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (LOSER) “Free Money!!! Hooray! Come one, come all, take the Wolverines and watch your account grow in funds.” Well, you can’t win them all right? I was almost as sure about this game as I was about the Baylor Bears. This just shows ya, even a guy on a nice little September weekend run can miss one from time to time. The Irish got me again!

Georgia Bulldogs (-7) @ South Carolina Gamecocks: (PUSH) Interesting and boring game. I don’t know how Coach Spurrier does it, but the guy was 1 goal line fumble away from tying this game up – unbelievable. Luckily for me the Bulldogs ended up covering despite getting equalled by the Gamecocks. Spurrier’s a tough guy to figure out, that’s for sure, unless he’s coaching in the NFL of course, then he’s a nice guy to bet against.

Rice Owls @ Vanderbilt Commodores (-7): (WINNER) “How can you not like it? Vandy has finally won me over, maybe just in time for them to crush my soul? Nan. Vandy plays tough defense, something the Owls haven’t faced in quite some time. Rice gives up a lot of points, something Chris Nickson and the track team skill positions in Vandy will take advantage of.” The Commodores outscored the Owls by 21 in the 2nd half, shutting Rice’s offense out completely. The final score was 38-21 as Rice just couldn’t match the Commodore’s speed.

Oklahoma Sooners (-20) @ Washington Huskies: (WINNER) “Free money!!! Thank you for scheduling this game so I could win free money. I am taking all the money in my accounts and putting it on the Sooners – at least if I get this one wrong I’ll lose it all. That’s right – my big risk and yours, should result in a big payoff. You think the Sooners are going to leave this game up to Pac-10 officials? Haha… Not after Oregon. Not after the call last week against Jake Locker. Sooners by 40. Free Money.” 55-14, Sooners by 41, not 40. I hate when I get it wrong by a point. The Sooners could have taken this game by 70, but they decided to grind it out and sit their starters in the 4th quarter. What does a one man team look like? Ask Jake Locker. I hope you took your free money!

Ohio State Buckeyes @ USC Trojans (-10): (WINNER) The Buckeyes were trounced and no, Beanie Wells wouldn’t have done anything about it. USC dominated this from the get go, as they were obviously the better team. This surely makes USC a favorite to win the NCAA Title.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+23) @ Arizona State Sun Devils: (WINNER) Well, UNLV just touched up the home team Sun Devils for a HUGE upset, and I had all those points to play with. You can bet I loved this one.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Fresno State Bulldogs (+1.5): (LOSS) The Badgers won, but this was as tough a game as they’ll play this year. The Bulldogs were in for the fight, and they had lots of chances. In the end, Wisconsin’s resilience and consistent defensive play finished off the Bulldogs in Fresno’s biggest home game in their history. I lost this one, but the Bulldogs are going to win me some money this year, I’ll bet on that.

Temple Owls (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bulls (12:00pm EST): (WINNER) A hail mary answered – you can’t get really angry about that. The points made me feel better though, and I knew I had already won when Buffalo tossed up a 50 yard prayer that I almost knew was going to be answered. Both teams played well, but it was the hail mary last second touchdown win that gave the game to the home team, leving Temple out and in the loss column, and me just a friendly underdog cover.

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers (-17.5) (12:00pm EST): (WINNER) I get some bad luck later, don’t worry. That’s right, I won this one by a half of a point, but that was a big half a point. NC State’s only score was an interception return for a touchdown, so it’s not like they had much of a chance. Still, I was worried until late when CJ Spiller scored a late touchdown to get me over the spread. Thanks young fella.

UAB Blazers (+30.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers (12:30pm EST): (LOSS) Ugh. This was a 32 point game – what can you do? I took the Blazers, but Tennessee did a nice job of shutting UAB down throughout, holding them to just 3 points. I was wrong about this one, but just barely.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-27) @ Syracuse Orange (3:30pm EST): (WINNER)b”Penn State is too tough and Syracuse can’t play a 2-3 zone in this one, so they are SOL. Take the road favorites to score at will.” 55-13… Does that cover a 27 point spread? I said this one wouldn’t be close and it wasn’t. I was right. Hooray me, and hooray you if you were listening.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7) @ Virginia Tech Hokies (3:30pm EST): (WINNER) Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are now both 2-1, as the Hokies held on to beat the Jackets. The score was 17-20, and I covered. This was a tight one for sure. I still think G-Tech would win this game 7 out of 10 times, they have a better offense and a much tighter rushing attack (278 rushing yards against Tech on Saturday) but this was Tyrod Taylor’s day. The Hokies were helped out by some big GT penalties, as they got a much needed victory. They win, I win, can’t hate that.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Texas Longhorns (-24) (3:30pm EST): (This game was postponed, so I’ll take it as a no bet, obviously)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+28) @ Alabama Crimson Tide (7:00pm EST): (LOSS) Alabama was on fire to start this game, and they only needed 3 quarters of solid play to ice the HIlltoppers. Bama won, and I got one of my few losses on Saturday.

Middle Tennessee State (+17) @ Kentucky Wildcats (7:00pm EST): (WINNER)  The Wildcats needed 10 points in the 4th quarter to beat Middle Tennessee State, and that still almost wasn’t enough. What am I talking about? Joe Craddock, MTS’s quarterback, put up a last minute hail mary that was caught, but came just a yard short of being a touchdown and State lost by 6, 20-14. It was a tough one, but I loved my +17 as it was an easy win and never left me in doubt throughout the contest.

Bowling Green Falcons (+17) @ Boise State Broncos (8:00pm EST): (WINNER) 20-7 – I was almost had, but the Falcons played tough after going down 20-0 in the first half. They never allowed another Bronco score, and they added a 4th quarter touchdown of their own to make me a winner. Hey, every once in a while that last quarter meaningless score sure helps me out. I’ll take this one with a smile.

Utah Utes (-24) @ Utah State Aggies (8:00pm EST): (WINNER)  “Utah is more like Oregon than UNLV – and the Aggies lost to them both. I know it doesn’t work like this, but Utah beat UNLV by 21, and the Aggies lost to UNLV by 10 – that’s 31 – ha. Utah is a very good team that could make a run at undefeated. It’s time for them to rub that in their instate rival’s face. I’ll take the Utes here.” How’s 58-10? That’s not 31, that’s 48 folks. Utah is a very good team that would do some solid work in big conferences this year. They’ll have to win out to get a sniff at a BCS game, but I like their chances.

Five for Friday: Week 2

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Avoiding 0-2: It’s very common for a team to start 1-1, happens most of the time. Don’t be surprised if most teams are 1-1 headed into week 3. Taking that into account, expect solid games out of fantasy players in San Diego, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, and Cleveland – all are looking to stay away from the 0-fer, and that is just more motivation to shine. 

BEAST of Burden: That’s what Brandon Jacobs is going to be for the Rams tacklers this week in St. Louis. I’m pretty sure he goes around singing his version of the great Stones’ song like this, “I’ll always be your beast of burden, tackle me, your shoulders will be hurtin’ – never ever ever ever ever ever ever get in my waaaayyyyyy…” For a team that struggles to stop the run anyway, it will be frustrating to see a 270lb 6’4″ running back barreling down on you. Nobody likes that garbage. Expect a big game from Jacobs. 

Re-Thinking it?: Holmgren left open a return to the NFL, but I don’t think that will help the Hawks much. It’s hard to play for a coach, give it all up for a guy, put yourself out there for a man that won’t be with you next year. He’s kind of a lame duck coach right now, and in response to my article I’m sure, he tried to give them something to play for. We’ll see how it works. 

Load Carries Load: He’s definitely not the more talented back in Tennessee, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see LenDale White carry the load in Cincinnati when his Titans take on the Bengals. Cincinnati has a tough time tackling anyone, and a big load of a guy like White is a real test for them I’m sure. Both backs will get their looks, but like I said, everyone is giving the job to Chris Johnson right now, and I expect a nice fantasy day and more touches for White. 

35-31?: Not the Vikings powerful defense? That’s right, I’m predicting 60+ points to be scored in Minnesota this weekend, and that’s not counting college games. The Vikings will run (and throw, you’ll see) while the Colts find spaces to fire the ball all over the field. Big game for Peyton in Week 2, and I also believe they’ll get the win to even out their record to 1-1.

theRUNDOWN: Week 2

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It’s Week 2, but don’t be caught up in the fantasy rush. This week there are some nice sleeper picks getting kicked off fantasy teams as we speak. We have two Monday Night games for the 2nd week in a row, and I can’t be more excited about the recent cast-offs littering my rosters. Here are my best, sneakiest, and worst plays of the week – enjoy!

QB: Peyton Manning vs. Minnesota: Ideally you want a quarterback to be very good, playing against a week secondary, but also going up against an offense that can put points on the board. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that his rushing attack will likely struggle. This is the case in Minnesota this weekend – the Manning show will be in full effect.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: Thanks for this. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers won’t abandon the run, and LT will put up ridiculous points against the Broncos.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis: Think the Colts were worried about Kyle Orton last week? Nope. Did it stop rookie Matt Forte from running all over the Colts defense? Nope. Think AP will have a week to remember in his home opener this season? I sure do.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Jets: I think Randy steps up huge now that Tom’s out for the season – it all starts in this game where the Pats are an underdog – nobody on New York’s defense is stopping Randy, and Cassel, if he’s smart, will give him a few chances to make plays.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Minnesota: The Vikes will put up enough points to make Peyton throw it around. Wayne can torch the Vikes secondary. This should be a good play.

TE: Heath Miller vs. Cleveland: I know Jason Witten was wide open all day against the Browns- it could have been just the game, but I’m willing to bet Heath will find his spaces as well.

K: Rod Bironas vs. Cincinnati: I feel bad taking any kickers, but Rod looks like he should have a big day. I may have jinxed the guy, and he seems like a good fella, oh well – that’s my job, kicker icer.

D: Giants vs. St. Louis: Sacks and then interceptions – seems like a Giant recipe for success.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

JaMarcus Russell: 220+ and 2 scores… Doubt me? We’ll see who is right. I’d say Russell outscores Favre, Brees, or Carson Palmer.

Aaron Rodgers: You believe yet? Rodgers plays even better this week, keeps the high percentage but throws for more yards in a big Packers’ win.

Chris Johnson: Is he still a sleeper starter? He’s going to kill the Bengals.

Julius Jones: #1 and really the only option for Seattle’s rushing attack. They didn’t look great, but they get the 49ers in Week 2, I like that match-up for the former Giant.

Laurence Maroney: Laurence Maroney will be a nice play this week. He’s a good runner, but can’t seem to get his hands on more than 15 carries – this week he will and 100+ and a TD is what I see from him.

Antwaan Randel El: The Redskins may look out of sync, but Twaan looks like he belongs in this offense, like he was made for it I guess. Against a Saints defense that isn’t known for stopping much, I like him as a sleeper in Week 2.

Anthony Gonzalez: He’s the number three, but he’ll be going up against a safety duo in Minnesota that can’t keep up with him. If he’s open, Manning will find him. He will be open, so, you get it right?

Robert Meachem: The kid didn’t play last week, but if you need help, somebody probably dropped him and he’s on the free agent list right now. Pick him up and at least see what he does. I think he’ll do some nice things.

Dustin Keller: He’s a nice mis-match problem with New England’s secondary – seems like a nice sleeper to me if you are in a Todd Heap bind.

Cardinals: The Cards are better than advertised and they have Miami this week in Arizona. I like my chances with them as my defensive pick-up of the week. Houston against Baltimore also gets consideration.

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Chris Perry: Another tough team for Perry – he has lots of tough match-ups to begin his starting career – this is one of them.

Steven Jackson: If you have a nice #3, don’t feel shamed to sit your 1st round pick – that’s why you drafted running backs high. Jackson won’t do much against the Giants defense.

Chris Chambers: Not this week for the former Dolphin, Champ has him on lockdown.

Devery Henderson: I know Colston is out, and Henderson looks like a nice option, but he won’t get as many looks as you think, and his 80 yard touchdown probably won’t come this week.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2 ('08)

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Lets get right to it. You know the gig, you ask questions and I answer them. For God’s sake it’s not that freaking much of a scientific experiment to get all hoogily boogily about – but it is some sound advice that just might be able to help out this weekend. Let the games begin!

Pmatty says, “I picked up Matt Cassel after Brady went down.  My other QB is Carson Palmer who stunk it up in week one.  Who should I start Cassel or Palmer?”

Most fantasy “experts” would tell you to start Palmer because he’s the man with the history of solid play, not just a backup with a loaded offense. But that’s not my style. I would start Cassel. I’ve always been a huge fan of Palmer, but his pre-season struggles, and his first regular season game seem too similar to me. He really looks lost, and he’s going up against a very good defense in Tennessee. Cassell is going up against the Jets – not a good defense to say the least, don’t buy the hype. I would imagine he throws a couple touchdowns and ammasses 200 yards – not a bad day for a quarterback, and I think he’ll get that pretty easily. Good pick up Pmatty – until Palmer proves he’s out of his funk, I’d go with the starting guy for the Pats.

David asks, “If I have a choice between Deion and Hackett which one do I take?”

I’d go with Hackett because he’s still a nice option when Smith gets back, and it doesn’t look like Branch will play until Week 5 – the Hawks 4th game of the season, at the earliest. That’s when I expect him back. I think Branch will be a better option down the line, but if Hackett stays healhty I think he’s a bigger touchdown threat, especially in the Panthers’ offense. Branch would get more yards because of his situation in a pass happy Hawks offense without any true receiving threat outside of him and Branch, but I like Hackett as a player – we have a saying around this house that says, “Hackett is the best receiver on the field” kind of poking fun at the fact that he’s never on the field – but no doubt, if you told me he was going to play 16 games I would love to have him on my team. As of right now I just kind of like it.

Brady O asks, “Which of these trades would you accept? I’m the guy with Chad Johnson and Ricky Williams. Chad and Ricky for Calvin Johnson and Matt Ryan – Chad and Ricky for Cotchery and Vernon Davis – Chad and Ricky for Brandon Marshall and Felix Jones – Chad and Ricky for Slaton and Santonio Holmes.”

People are really running from Chad Johnson right now, and while I can see why, I don’t know if it’s the best move. You are not getting great value for one of the better receivers in the game, but I guess you are getting more of a sure thing because you’re trading a guy that has a relatively serious ailment and could opt for season ending surgery at any point – so I guess that makes sense. Anyway, it looks here like you are trying to pair Chad with Ricky in hopes of improving you receivers. The only one I wouldn’t do is Holmes and Slaton. I’m not the biggest fan of Holmes game, but he’ll be solid. If you want more of a health bonus, that’s not the worst deal. My favorite trade is Brandon Marshall and Felix Jones. I really dig Brandon’s game, even though he’s obviously a bit of a bonehead. Jay Cutler is the real deal, and with Eddie Royal’s quicks on the opposite side, he should get less coverage tilted his way this year. As a bonus I also see Jones with some value, especially if Superman Barber gets hurt. But my favorite receiver in this bunch, including Chad, would be Calvin Johnson, so if Ricky is just a throwaway to you, my advice would be to take Calvin. I think this kid could grab 90 passes for 1500+ yards this season. He’s legit. Good luck!

Gary says, “I was a bit of an idiot in my dynasty league this summer, didn’t pay much attention and got busy with work and life. In week 1 I started Steve Smith (Carolina) and in my other league Brandon Marshall. Ouch. Anyway, I was already on thin ice with the league, and now one of them wants to boot me. Should I step aside? I don’t want to, but they think I’m throwing my games to try and get the #1 pick, as if anybody would do that from week 1. Advice?”

Just tell them what you told me, but also add that if you do it again you will step aside and they can find a new owner. It sucks to be in dynasty leagues with people that don’t get on the site or pay attention to goings on around the NFL because the rest of the people in the league signed up for exactly that. It’s not that hard to get on the league site for 10 minutes a week, set your lineup, and read your team news just incase one of your players decides to smoke some weed before Week 2’s piss test. You owe that to the rest of the owners in your league. On the other hand, I can’t believe that a group of owners actually thinks you are trying to lose all your games from the start of the season. Do they think you just like donating cash to the cause or what? Don’t fight with them about it though, because that just seems to cause more problems – tell them you’ll quit if it happens again, and just play man. And win. Nothing is better than beating a bunch of people that suspect you of trying to lose your games.

Three for Thursday: Week 2

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What Would I do for a Klondike Bar? How about a healthy offensive line!: More than a couple quarterbacks are pondering that exact question this week, and that should make you worry too. That’s right, the Jaguars, Seahawks, Vikings, and Colts are all down at least one key guy on their respective offensive lines. The Jags, Hawks, and Colts look to be really hurting, while it’s just Tarvaris Jackson’s blind-side hurting in Minnesota. This week, the Jags play the Bills, a tough defensive front, and their offensive fantasy players should all be downgraded because of it. The Vikings play the Colts, so play them at will. The Colts, in turn, play the Vikes, that can’t be a good match-up for Joseph Addai, and Peyton might have to throw a little quicker, but he’s still a nice play. The Hawks go up against the 49ers, and if there was ever a good time to play Julius Jones, it’s probably now, but he, by no means, is a safe bet – even against that defensive line in San Fran. I’m just saying, the health of the big guys (or lack there of) is a big reason for success (or lack there of). Keep that in mind when setting your lineups.

What a Year for Rookies? Or what a first week?: It has often been said that rookies can’t be trusted unless they are running backs put into a great situation. Some have beaten that advice (Larry Fitz, even more so Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, Dwayne Bowe had a solid year, and a couple others for sure) but for the most part, there are more rookies with nice weeks than nice innagural seasons. Still, I can’t help but recognize the difference makers throughout this rookie class – and you should take notice as well. Guys not picked in the first round, players like Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, John Carlson – and then 1st rounders like Stewart, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Matt Ryan – these guys all seem pretty legit. Was week 1 just a coming out part for the rooks, and week 2 will be a blast of reality? It’s tough to say, but right now I’m going with the greatness of this class that was supposed to be void of solid receivers and high on super talents that hadn’t figured it out yet. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, among others, figured out how to rock week 1 like a champ.

The Great Wall of… CINCINNATI?: Don’t bet on it. The Titans look to be a team destined to have two 100+ yard rushers in the same week for the first time this year. Kerry Collins has the deep arm to keep the Bengals secondary honest, and even then, it’s not as if they can tackle. Good luck catching Chris Johnson, and even better luck trying to bring down the bulk that is LenDale White. This box score is going to look like a Navy football game – run, run, and then run some more. Maybe a better question is what are the Bengals going to do to fix their offense? Sign Shaunna Alexander… Oh great, that’s going to work wonders! Sigh.

NFL Free Picks: Week 2

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Week 1 in the NFL saw some big upsets, some big drummings at the hands of the Cowboys and Eagles, the loss of last season’s record breaking MVP, and of course two big fat losses for the Raiders and Rams – so some things are new and some are the same old same. Week 2 is bound to surprise here and there, and remember, one bad week a season doesn’t make – or something like that. 15 more games to go for every single one of these teams – and this Sunday is a new start for every single one of them. This is how I see the cookie crumbling – the way of the road warriors?

Oakland Raiders +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: The Raiders had some tough bounces roll away from them, and they just got caught in a opening night nightmare against the Broncos on Monday Night. I don’t think Denver is quite that good, and Oakland isn’t that bad. In fact, I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them. Also, JaMarcus will get a little more time against the Chiefs, and this game will come down to the wire. Close games are always tough to call, but I’m taking the Raiders and the points in this one, 4.5 is too much for the Chiefs to give – plus, these guys have lost 10 straight games going back to last year.

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): Like any capper in the last few seasons, I hate to take the Panthers as a favorite against just about anyone – especially at home where they don’t play their best ball. But these are the Bears here. A Bears team that put it all together and made a mockery of the Colts in Week 1. I can’t buy them doing that again. The Panthers are for real this year boys and girls, not just a finicky team that will be up and down like it’s their job. They have a solid healthy rushing attack with two confident running options. Aside from Steve Smith (out one more week) they still have Mushin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett, two very competent receivers – and a tight end, Donte Rosario, that looks like a nice options as well. At home against a Bears team that played above and beyond last week? You bet, that’s worth a shot right there.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: Little do people know, but New Orleans is better away from New Orleans than they are at home in… New Orleans. I like the Redskins to have a little bit better cohesion offensively this week, but I don’t expect their defense to be as tough in thier own red-zone. The Saints score 3 touchdowns, kick one field goal, and this thing is over. Marques Colston isn’t in action for the next few weeks, so expect some fireworks from little used Robert Meachem. I think Robert is a great option for Drew with Colston out. He’s a big kid and he’s got wheels. Look for New Orleans to utilize him against the Redskins.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road. This is no easy pick, though. The Colts were shredded by Matt Forte and the Bears rushing attack last week, just imagine what the Vikings plan to do with them. Also, Indy looked pretty disjointed without Jeff Saturday handing the ball to Peyton, if it was his absence that had the Colts lost, this could be a long game. I’m betting on Peyton’s rust being more of the problem than Saturday’s musk – we’ll see.

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: This one is tough for me because I expected more out of the Rams this season. The Giants are tough to run against, and they have a pretty nice group of corners as well. Seeing Philly pick the Rams apart has me moving away from them, especially after they showed absolutely no heart during the contests. Still, I wouldn’t wager the world on this game – The Rams will be out to prove their worth once again. The thing that has me siding with the Giants is their run defense and rushing attack – both are powerful. Also, the Giants are a very good road team – that will help them cover.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Tough game for sure. I think a lot of the Jaguars, but without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Way the Bucs play, and the way Atlanta is destined to try and grind it out, I just have to take all of the 9 points here. I know it’s different on the road for a young team, but with two teams not willing to risk a lot, those 9 points look pretty darned good. The Falcons can run the ball, and they seem to be loving life under a real head coach. They have confidence and a young signal caller that is going to be a great one. Lots of weapons of offense will be a tough match-up for Tampa. A good game here – so take the points.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: I like the Niners to cover in this one. Not only did the Hawks get thinner at wide receiver, but they also have to try and stop Frank Gore, a guy that just kills them usually. The Niners will be able to stick to it and put up enough points to stay close in Seattle, even though the Hawks play well at home, they look like a dejected unit right now. They just lost their starting guard for the season, and yet another receiver is out. They also cut Jordan Kent, a guy that played minutes last week, though he was drop-happy. Right now they are trying to get their back-up quarterback on the field to catch passes – yes, it looks desperate in Seattle.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): I like the Cardinals here. Arizona is a solid team against the run, and that’s really all Miami has. Chad Pennington can throw it accurately, but the safeties in Arizona are really speedy ball hawks, and both Rolle and Wilson will make big plays on Sunday. I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): I’m willing to believe that the Ravens awesome defensive performance last week was at least partially due to the horrid play by the Bengals. Houston will be a lot tougher defensively and I’m assuming offensively as well. Joe Flacco will have a tough time escaping Mario Williams – that’s for sure. If the Ravens can’t run the ball, this has the makings of a 24-6 ball game. I don’t expect the Ravens to score more than 17 points in half of their games this season. 17 won’t do it in Houston. Take the Texans as a solid bet in Week 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I still don’t think much of Cleveland. They’re all probably sitting around practice this week thinking that Week 1 was a fluke, and they’ll get back on track with a big win over the Steelers – wrong. It’s amazing how much the Browns remind me of last years’ Saints. I know Pittsburgh isn’t the same on the road as they are at home, but this one has the makings of a blowout. Jamal Lewis won’t be able to run much, because the Steelers plug up rushing attacks week in and week out. That leaves Derek Anderson, a guy that hasn’t had a good game since Week 12 last year, to beat them. The Steel-Show won’t let that happen. Look for Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall to be a nice 1-2 punch against Cleveland, just like Barber and Felix Jones were last week.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week. Before the season, after the season, before the LIons were killed by Atlanta or after the Lions had beaten the ’89 49ers, I don’t care, I’m still taking the Packers in this one. Aaron Rodgers is a sniper. His accurate air assault and the Packers powerful rushing attack should dominate this game by keeping possession in their hands. Take the Pack to advance to 2-0.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.

San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: Yes, Denver lit up Oakland in Week 1, but I have to like the Chargers as a pick’em against Denver. I just don’t see San Diego going 0-2 to start the season. Last week was a nice little wake-up call. Take advantage of Denver’s big Nationally televised annihilation of the Raiders on Monday Night Football, and take the Chargers in Denver. San Diego is the better all around team. They will run over Denver like Atlanta did to Detroit. Hundreds of rushing yards are in the Chargers immediate future.

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank. There’s not much to say about this game besides this, the Jets aren’t as good as the Patriots. They might have a better quarterback right now, but that’s about it. Even the Pats rushing attack will likely out-gain the Jets’. Look for a nice road win from a team that just lost their leader.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): This is a tough one for me because the Eagles looked so good and they are absolutely chalked full of talent – however, the Cowboys looked almost equally as good against a better team (or so people think Cleveland is better than the Rams, I’d probably agree). Still, that’s just last week, and how much does last week really matter? Are the Eagles really that solid on offense? Are the Cowboys that legit defensively? It’s a tough game to call, that’s for sure. And then you put in the Eagle/Cowboy rivalry to boot. I’m going to say that Donovan McNabb has a tough time handling the Cowboys pressure, as Dallas forces him into some poor decisions. The Cowboys will also hold Philly’s rushing attack in check – so I’m going with the Cowboys here. Tough call for sure, but the Boys get the nod.

One for Wednesday

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In-Vince-is-able: It’s starting to get weird for the former star Texas Longhorn. This summer there was some stuff that surfaced about how Vince didn’t want to play ball at one point during his second season, about how he couldn’t handle all the criticism and just didn’t want to deal with the pressure. He talked about how he felt that way a while back, but now things were different. Maybe they are not so different after all. Vince is supposedly considering hanging it up, and the Titans look to be making the moves to accommodate the big fella. Tennessee Titans added Chris Simms to back-up Kerry Collins, and some have said that Vince won’t get the starting gig if and when he returns to the team healthy. I personally hope he gets back and proves his critics wrong, but he won’t be able to do it solely on his talent. Vince really has to study and give his heart to this game or he’ll always deal with these problems. Right now, if I’m a Vince Young owner, I’m worried. I’m scrounging the waiver wire and doing my best to pick up a viable 2nd option. Kerry Collins, in my opinion, hurts the rushing attack but helps make the receivers, tight-ends, and pass catching backs more relevant. Against tough pass rushing opponents, I just don’t see the Titans doing much on the ground. I could be wrong, and we’ll see early, but things just got interesting in Tennessee.