Tag Archives: NFL

Fantasy Football Week 3 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Welcome back for my next installment of Thing 1 and Thing 2. If you followed my advice last week you got comparable (and in some cases better) production from your lesser-owned fantasy players. The lone exception was due to Kellen Winslow’s breakout game and Robert Royal’s disappearing act. You can’t win them all I guess but four out of five ain’t bad. As the weeks go on it will get tougher and tougher to uncover those hidden gems so staying active on your league’s waiver wire early can really pay off as the season wears on. Who should you be paying attention to as week 3 approaches? … Let’s get after it.

Thing 1: A much-hyped rookie coming out of college, this kid has loads of talent but hasn’t looked ready for the NFL early in his career.  He is currently the sexier pick in a RBBC offensive scheme but his production has yet to match his 95% ownership in ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A career backup that has had some injury troubles but has always done the most with the chances that have been given to him.  He is currently being overlooked as a fantasy contributor but his production on the field warrants much more consideration than his 38% ownership suggests.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Knowshon Moreno and Thing 2 is Correll Buckhalter.  The running back situation in Denver will likely be fluid all season long, but don’t miss out on the cheap production you can get from a guy like Buckhalter, especially early in the season.  Moreno will finish the season with more touches, but I think Buckhalter will score more TDs for the Broncos due to his big play ability and slightly larger build.

Thing 1: This QBs upside is marginal but he does have a talented group of wide receivers and young, imaginative offensive mind calling the shots.  That said, his decision-making has always been a huge question mark and I am amazed that he is currently owned in 78% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB came into the season undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues but is steadily making strides toward fantasy consideration.  He does turn the ball over more than he should but early in the season his yardage and TDs are more than making up for it.  He is currently owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kyle Orton and Thing 2 is Byron Leftwich.  Orton is the prototypical “game manager” and has the potential to post more consistent stat-lines than Leftwich, but the upside of the sluggish-armed Tampa QB is intriguing.  He has shown a good rapport with TE Kellen Winslow early in the year and a defense on the decline could have him playing a lot of catchup.  Ask Jay Cutler how that worked out for his fantasy stats last year.

Thing 1: This WR is an extremely gifted route-runner and has some of surest hands in the NFL.  Due to some off-season changes to his supporting cast, his early-season production has taken a major hit.  I still like the kid a lot, and he is becoming a good buy-low candidate, but he is currently owned in 90% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This young WR has blazing speed and his big-play potential has caused his team to try and find more opportunities to get the ball in his hands.  A big jump in his ownership percentage this past week means owners are starting to take notice so this may be your last chance to go get him.  He is currently owned in 20% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Eddie Royal and Thing 2 is Johnny Knox.  Royal’s loss this past off-season has been Knox’s gain in the form of Jay Cutler.  A strong-armed QB with decent accuracy, Cutler is able to fit the ball into tight spots for Knox to work those shallow crosses and sideline routes that made Royal a household name last year.  As their chemistry grows expect to see more of the speed merchant from Abilene Christian.

Thing 1: This physical WR uses his body extremely well to make tough catches in traffic.  He has a rookie signal-caller tossing him the rock and over the first two weeks of the season they have shown decent chemistry.  He has yet to get into the end zone, but this productive wideout is currently owned in 96% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This second-year WR won a preseason battle for the #2 role on his team.  Although his play was inconsistent in his rookie season, he has shown flashes of big-play potential and has developed into a good route-runner.  He won’t produce as a fantasy starter every week, but there is value here and he is owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jerricho Cotchery and Thing 2 is Chansi Stuckey.  I like what I have seen from Stuckey and his rookie QB thus far.  Mark Sanchez’s lightning-quick feet and superb vision mean he will be able to keep plays alive longer than his aging predecessor, allowing his receivers to work toward open space.  I think Stuckey has big-time sleeper potential in an offense that looks to be much more balanced than anyone thought heading into the season.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2 ('08)

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Lets get right to it. You know the gig, you ask questions and I answer them. For God’s sake it’s not that freaking much of a scientific experiment to get all hoogily boogily about – but it is some sound advice that just might be able to help out this weekend. Let the games begin!

Pmatty says, “I picked up Matt Cassel after Brady went down.  My other QB is Carson Palmer who stunk it up in week one.  Who should I start Cassel or Palmer?”

Most fantasy “experts” would tell you to start Palmer because he’s the man with the history of solid play, not just a backup with a loaded offense. But that’s not my style. I would start Cassel. I’ve always been a huge fan of Palmer, but his pre-season struggles, and his first regular season game seem too similar to me. He really looks lost, and he’s going up against a very good defense in Tennessee. Cassell is going up against the Jets – not a good defense to say the least, don’t buy the hype. I would imagine he throws a couple touchdowns and ammasses 200 yards – not a bad day for a quarterback, and I think he’ll get that pretty easily. Good pick up Pmatty – until Palmer proves he’s out of his funk, I’d go with the starting guy for the Pats.

David asks, “If I have a choice between Deion and Hackett which one do I take?”

I’d go with Hackett because he’s still a nice option when Smith gets back, and it doesn’t look like Branch will play until Week 5 – the Hawks 4th game of the season, at the earliest. That’s when I expect him back. I think Branch will be a better option down the line, but if Hackett stays healhty I think he’s a bigger touchdown threat, especially in the Panthers’ offense. Branch would get more yards because of his situation in a pass happy Hawks offense without any true receiving threat outside of him and Branch, but I like Hackett as a player – we have a saying around this house that says, “Hackett is the best receiver on the field” kind of poking fun at the fact that he’s never on the field – but no doubt, if you told me he was going to play 16 games I would love to have him on my team. As of right now I just kind of like it.

Brady O asks, “Which of these trades would you accept? I’m the guy with Chad Johnson and Ricky Williams. Chad and Ricky for Calvin Johnson and Matt Ryan – Chad and Ricky for Cotchery and Vernon Davis – Chad and Ricky for Brandon Marshall and Felix Jones – Chad and Ricky for Slaton and Santonio Holmes.”

People are really running from Chad Johnson right now, and while I can see why, I don’t know if it’s the best move. You are not getting great value for one of the better receivers in the game, but I guess you are getting more of a sure thing because you’re trading a guy that has a relatively serious ailment and could opt for season ending surgery at any point – so I guess that makes sense. Anyway, it looks here like you are trying to pair Chad with Ricky in hopes of improving you receivers. The only one I wouldn’t do is Holmes and Slaton. I’m not the biggest fan of Holmes game, but he’ll be solid. If you want more of a health bonus, that’s not the worst deal. My favorite trade is Brandon Marshall and Felix Jones. I really dig Brandon’s game, even though he’s obviously a bit of a bonehead. Jay Cutler is the real deal, and with Eddie Royal’s quicks on the opposite side, he should get less coverage tilted his way this year. As a bonus I also see Jones with some value, especially if Superman Barber gets hurt. But my favorite receiver in this bunch, including Chad, would be Calvin Johnson, so if Ricky is just a throwaway to you, my advice would be to take Calvin. I think this kid could grab 90 passes for 1500+ yards this season. He’s legit. Good luck!

Gary says, “I was a bit of an idiot in my dynasty league this summer, didn’t pay much attention and got busy with work and life. In week 1 I started Steve Smith (Carolina) and in my other league Brandon Marshall. Ouch. Anyway, I was already on thin ice with the league, and now one of them wants to boot me. Should I step aside? I don’t want to, but they think I’m throwing my games to try and get the #1 pick, as if anybody would do that from week 1. Advice?”

Just tell them what you told me, but also add that if you do it again you will step aside and they can find a new owner. It sucks to be in dynasty leagues with people that don’t get on the site or pay attention to goings on around the NFL because the rest of the people in the league signed up for exactly that. It’s not that hard to get on the league site for 10 minutes a week, set your lineup, and read your team news just incase one of your players decides to smoke some weed before Week 2’s piss test. You owe that to the rest of the owners in your league. On the other hand, I can’t believe that a group of owners actually thinks you are trying to lose all your games from the start of the season. Do they think you just like donating cash to the cause or what? Don’t fight with them about it though, because that just seems to cause more problems – tell them you’ll quit if it happens again, and just play man. And win. Nothing is better than beating a bunch of people that suspect you of trying to lose your games.

NFL Free Picks Review: Pre-Season Week 2

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So, I’m no longer perfect, but I still took 2 of 3 this weekend, bringing my record to 5-1-1 to start the pre-season. Here’s how the dingo went down under.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

“Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing.” This game finished at 36. That’s not so bad, except for the fact that I am now just 2 points away from being undefeated during the pre-season. That’s because I ended up winning the last two games of the weekend. There was one play in this game that basically sealed my fate. The Broncos were up 14-10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter when they put together a drive and managed to get down to the 1 with 6 minutes and change left to play. A touchdown brings the total to 31 and my cover is well within range headed into the 4th quarter. Instead, the Broncos took the safe play and kicked a field goal to go up 10. Thats where the total got so far away. So, not only was I 2 points away from winning this total, but I was a single yard away from it. Damn numbers! I guess everyone needs to lose sometime – I just thought this was my Patriot-undefeated-year. So much for that; I couldn’t even make it out of the pre-season.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

As I write this the Bucs are up 27-10 and just breaking into New England territory with about 5 minutes to play. Yes, its sport and anything can happen but I’m willing to chalk this one up as a win. The Patriots still don’t care to win pre-season games and will settle for winning the majority (or all) of games that count. Weird. Still, the Bucs looked good behind solid quarterbacking (19-25 as a group right now) and effective running. The Bucs have a good offensive line and an even better O-line coach. They have multiple runners with talent, and a bunch of receivers trying to make this team. They are a good bet in the pre-season, as shown once again. I win again!

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

“The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest.. …even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend.” What do you know? The Lions take one from a Bengals team that looked uninterested. Carson Palmer looked off again and not even Chris Perry could impress me. On the other hand, Jon Kitna had a flawless drive and Drew Stanton had a couple nice throws while Calvin Johnson looked like the awesome prospect he is. Marinelli likes to win, even in the pre-season. Remember that.

2-1 this week! 5-1-1 on the pre-season! Check in to see if I can’t keep it going next week.

Ask Papa Weimer #2 – 2008 Pre-Season

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This is the section where you ask me the questions. I may be old and I may be stingy, but you can bet your balls that my fantasy football advice will steer you in the right direction. With some new pills and a nice little workout regimen that includes a couple of hours a day with my new fiancé, I’m feeling better than ever before. HA! Let the games begin… You know the program, grip it and rip it, ask it and I’ll answer it – send your questions via email to papaweimer50@hotmail.com and this old fart will respond as soon as possible. Pre-Season games start this Sunday, so indeed, the season is beginning.

Red-Red Ryan from Walla Walla asks, “I just got a trade offer in a keeper league and I’m just not sure. I’d be giving away Adrian Peterson and picking up Joseph Addai and Sydney Rice. What do you think?”

There are some things in life you should “Just Say No” to – shell fish enchiladas, girls that match their eye shadow with their bra and their dodge neon, drugs (most anyway), and trades like this. Ask yourself this, how can a 2nd year #2 wide receiver, that hasn’t done anything yet, and plays in a high flying passing attack like that in Minnesota, sway a trade between two stars? Unless you think Addai and Peterson are dead even then you should just say no to this deal. I like Rice, but he’s no reason to axe Peterson. If you are trading AP then you better be getting good at another position. Right now, you’d be adding a running back of lesser value and a receiver that probably won’t start on your team (unless your receivers are Marshall, Steve Smith, and Keyshawn Johnson). I say hold onto AP and wait until someone goes gaga over him. Last year, I traded AP for Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, and Larry Fitz. That was a decent deal. Hold out for better!

Bad Boy from Jersey whispers, “I am having a hard time thinking about the first round of my draft – see, I have the 2nd pick and while I think LT and AP are both super talented guys, I have this eerie feeling that Marion Barber is going to take the fantasy MVP title this season. Can I really take Barber #2 – I see your nephew has Marion ranked 2nd in the RB listings – so at least I have him backing me, right?”

Sure you can. Will people laugh? You bet. Will people destroy you all year long if you pass on LT and AP. Shoot, they’ll hammer you like Jenna. But do it. This is the thing that kills me year after year, people always draft the guys that magazines and “experts” value the most. In the 1st round, value means jack. If I’m picking 4th and I think Clinton Portis is going to blow up in Jim Zorn’s new offense, I’m taking him despite the mockery, gawking, and chance at humiliation. You know why? Because I believe in myself. Now, if I could trade AP for the #5 pick and maybe a 3rd or 4th round pick, I’d go for that. That way, I could pick up Barber at #5 (likely) and pick up a great player with that extra pick (Colston, Brees, Boldin, Mike Turner, etc) and that will likely make my team better. Don’t just blow the spot you have, if you can, try to propose some trades. Maybe tell the #5 guy or #4 pick that if he takes Barber, you’ll trade him AP for MBIII and his 4th round pick. There are a lot of AP lovers out there – don’t sell yourself short, exhaust your resources and try to get paid!

Justin “BB” King from Pearly Harbor says, “Please explain to me why Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall are dropping down rounds from where they were picked before their suspensions? Two games, right? Two freaking games – hell, I’ll take those guys late ever single time. Studs. Am I missing something?”

You have it right on the dot. Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall are dropping for little reason. Having them both might lose you the first couple of weeks, but the next 10 weeks that matter should give you quite the advantage. If they drop more than a round in your draft, I’d do just what you think you’re going to do, pick them right up. Both should have huge years and both are probably Top 10 guys at that position. Plus, it’s not hard to find a couple receivers to start in the first couple weeks. Just do some research and find some good value with good match-ups against terrible defenses during the first couple weeks. Baltimore plays Cincinnati (bad defense) so Derrick Mason could be a good late round pick up. He’s almost assured a handful of catches and 80+ yards against the Bengals. The Bears play the Colts, so maybe Devin Hester? New England plays the Chiefs and then the Jets, so grabbing Jabbar Gaffney late could be decent sleeper starting option in the first few weeks. Do some research, put yourself in a good spot, and yeah, go for those two All-Pro receivers if they drop down the board. Good Luck!