Monthly Archives: September 2008

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 3

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It wasn’t beautiful, that’s for sure, I lost some close ones and killed it on most of the beatdowns – I say most, because lord knows I didn’t expect the Patriots to get whacked by the Dolphins. Anyway, I was 8-7 headed into Monday Night Football – and since I felt like sharing this is the review.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (-4): (WINNER) Turner went for over 100 yards with 3 touchdowns to his name. The kid is for real. If you still don’t believe you must be drunk. The Chiefs couldn’t stay up with the Falcons offensive attack, even thought Larry Johnson put up some nice numbers of his own. Falcons at 2-1… Nice.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “I think Oakland is better than many give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t quite the 10.5 point powerhouse at home. Take the points and the Raiders here. Expect JaMarcus Russell to have a two touchdown game, and the Raiders to stay close in Buffalo.” Well, the Raiders didn’t run it that well, but JaMarcus did have his two touchdown game, one rushing – one passing, and the Raiders were a last second field goal away from ruining my survivor pool after just 3 weeks. But, the Bills pulled it out, and while my survivor streak lives on, I also get a nice win here.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-5): (WINNER) “I don’t think Houston’s run defense can slow down the Titans rushing attack enough to cover in Tennessee.” Honestly, Houston’s run defense was decent. They allowed two rushing touchdowns, but holding the Titans to 150 yards on 36 carries isn’t that bad. But Matt Schaub didn’t have his A game going. He threw 3 interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and the Texans didn’t stand a chance against a very good Titans defense. When will Houston get an offensive line that can protect a quarterback?

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (-13): (LOSS) “Until the Bengals show me that they are more together than a bucket of busted Legos, I’m not even considering taking them at anything less than +17.” Alright, now that the Bengals have showed me something (though they are still 0-3 because of some stone cold heroic throws from Eli Manning) I will start considering them against the spread. The Giants pulled out an overtime victory (thought I was rooting hard against them because of survivor pool purposes) but the Bengals covered easily. This is the Bengals team everyone expected. They might have thrown up a fluke good game against a good team, but I have a feeling they’ll get it together now and be competitive. Still, I lost.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) “I understand that the NFC East hasn’t lost a game out of their own conference this season. It’s only been two weeks, but it is definitely the scariest conference in football.” Well, the NFC East still hasn’t lost a game out of their conference so far this season. The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Redskins all did damage against their respective opponents. The Cardinals were just another team in the NFC East warpath. Washington won by a touchdown and gave me another L.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-12.5): (LOSSSSS!!!!) “This is going to be one of those Patriotic blowouts. Miami is still one of the worst teams in football and despite Tom Brady’s absence, the Patriots are still one of the best.” Hmmmm…. Have I been tricked? Have we been absolutely April fooled? I’d like to think not. In fact, all teams are subject to a bad game. The Patriots just happened to have one of their worst games ever and Ronnie Brown was a man possessed on Sunday (the cat was responsible for 5 touchdowns – dirty). I lost this one, sure, but I have to think this loss gives the Patriots some nice value down next week – unless of course the Jets are much worse than we all thought (we’ll see Monday Night).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) “I know the Bears are 2-0, but I still don’t see them as a good team. Maybe that changes this week if they can fend off the Bucs, a solid team all around, but my bet is that doesn’t happen.” A couple things happened in this contest: 1, The Bears did prove to me that they are a solid team – a group I have greatly underrated to this point, their defense is good enough to allow their offense to keep running the ball, and Matt Forte is a beast – they’ll be in almost every game they play. 2, the Bucs couldn’t run the ball, but they were good enough to realize that and take what the Bears gave them. Brian Griese should never have 400+ passing yards, heck, 300 is a stretch – but the Bears wouldn’t let the Bucs run and so Griese just passed – that shows me that they will be a force in the NFC South. They aren’t one dimensional anymore.

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3): (WINNER) “I don’t see Carolina’s rushing attack working too well in Minnesota, and I do think their offensive attack and winning chances depend on that. Gus Frerotte starts this week in Minnesota, so the Panthers will have more to worry about through the air. We’ll see, but I have to believe that the Vikings don’t start the season 0-3. Take the Vikes to get their first win and by just enough to cover at home.” The Vikings won by 10, and most of that W was because the Panthers couldn’t run the ball. It didn’t matter who was toting the rock for the Panthers, they couldn’t do anything against that ferocious defensive line in Minnesota. 1-2 is much better than 0-3, just ask the Browns.

St. Louis Rams (+11) @ Seattle Seahawks: (LOSS) Alright, I’m off the Rams. Right now, this team has to be one of the worst professional football teams I’ve seen in a long time. The Dolphins last season? No way – they were decent. Everyone aside from Tory Holt looks terrible in St. Louis. That Steven Jackson cat that just pulled in all that dough? He skips around in the backfield like a damn jumping jack, never attacking the line with any force whatsoever. Killing me. Bulger? Please. The offensive line – they are probably most of the reason for Bulger and Jackson playing like scared mice. I was DEAD wrong about this one, and I apologize completely.

Detroit Lions (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (LOSS) Boy, if there wasn’t a team from St. Louis I would absolutely hammer the Lions right now. Detroit plays like every opponent is tougher than they are. They can’t stop anyone – just like Mike Ditka said on Sunday morning. Ditka was right, the Lions defense is abysmal… Someone give Matt Millen another year at the helm of this beast!

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-4.5): (LOSS) Absolutely screwed! That’s right, you can see this game a couple ways – either the Denver Broncos should have lost against a last second field goal, or the way I see it. If Denver just runs the ball and the clock goes down, then they kick a field goal to go up 5. But no… Splinter has to get cute with his little Ninja Horsies, and Scheffler fumbles the ball, and now New Orleans has a chance. I should have covered here – that was a load of BS. Not only that but Splinter still gets the win for his Broncos and everyone isn’t killing him all over national TV. Last week he pulls a stunt and gets a win for it, this week his dumb play backfires and he still gets a win. Oh, and I lose! DAMN IT! (Sorry, I’m a little frustrated with this outcome)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): (WINNER) Let me say that I am stunned the Eagles iced the Steelers like this without Westy for most of the game. The best player on the field goes down early, after just 5 carries for 12 yards, and the Eagles D up tough, sacking Big Ben like it was their job, even knocking the big cat out of the game late. The Eagles didn’t put up a gaggle of yards or touchdowns, but they did what they needed to do and got a big win against a tough AFC team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “Bob Sanders’ injury wins me over to the dogs in this one. I think the Jaguars will run all over the Colts on Sunday. This is a pretty big game for both teams, and Jacksonville has looked anything but solid thus far, but my instinct is to trust my gut, and my gut tells me that Jacksonville has been playing well below their talent level, and that will stop now. At 0-2 there’s not much room to mess around, and I don’t imagine they’ll come out throwing all over Indy. Maurice Jones Drew should get 15-20 carries and Fred Taylor will get his touches as well. If that happens, and I believe it will, the Jaguars and Colts will both be sitting at 1-2 after Week 3.” I just quoted everything I said in my picks column because it worked perfectly in this game.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) (LOSS) (LOSS) I’ll take the hit for this one. Up at half I thought the Browns would come out and shut down the Ravens. I was wrong. I was wrong about a lot in this game. I would like to say this once again, in case everyone is missing the link, this Browns team is EXACTLY like the Saints from last year. Right?

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER)  The best team in football beat a very good team in Green Bay on Sunday Night. Unless the Cowboys really stumble, they look like one hell of a team to beat.


NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 4

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There certainly were some tough games this weekend, a few frustrations that got me down on Saturday – but looking at the entire card, and tallying up the wins and losses, I still came out on top. 8-6, bringing me 9 games over .500 on the season. Win the tough weeks and you’ll be just fine – that’s what my favorite coach always said. This is how the damage went down.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+8.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (LOSS) – The Yellow Jackets ran all over the Bulldogs and absolutely obliterated them in Georgia. I had a loss early on, and it was a big one – Jonathan Dwyer (GT’s sophomore running back) had 141 yards on just 9 carries. There were 4 Tech runners with at least 56 rushing yards, and 7 had over 25 yards on the ground. It was a team effort for sure, but a rushing team effort. Note to self, don’t pick against the Jackets if their opponent can’t stop the run.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-9) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (WINNER): If you risked it all, you got it all back and then some. I thought this line was fishy, and in the end I was right, the Tide were at least 3 times the team Arkansas was this Saturday – at least that’s what the 49-14 score said.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (WINNER):  The Hokies played tough down the stretch, but that’s what they do. VaTech is and always will be a tough team. North Carolina came to play, surely, and they might have deserved a win if not for a little bit of a 4th quarter melt down, but Tech pulled the minor upset to move to 3-1 and 2-0 in the ACC.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Texas A&M (WINNER): Miami was up 24-10 going into half time, and they came out swinging. The Hurricanes put up 17 points in the 3rd quarter and ended the game with an 18 point road victory. Big game for the U – that’s for sure. And I got yet another win. As it turned out, I’d need all these wins to make up for a few slaps in the face.

Idaho Vandals @ Utah State Aggies (-4.5) (WINNER): With the score tied going into half time, and the Aggies up just 4 barreling down on the 4th quarter, I was a little worried – surely. But then, like a circus clown out of a cannon, the Aggies found their offensive game and managed 21 points in the 4th quarter – 21 unanswered mind you. And Utah State gave me another nice win.

Temple Owls (+29) @ Penn State Nittany Lions (LOSS): I need to stop underestimating the Nittany Lions – now, don’t get me wrong, I didn’t get any help in this game as the Owls lost their senior team leader in QB Adam DiMichele, to a first quarter shoulder injury – but it seems that unless Adam was one hell of a super hero tackling extraordinaire, I was probably SOL in this game anyway. The Lions put up 45 big ones in this contest, allowing just 3 to the Owls. I would still like to think DiMichelle would have managed a couple touchdowns – but that might be lofty hopes. I’ll never know, all I know is that I lost this one.

East Carolina Pirates (-7.5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack (LOSS): I was kind of sad when East Carolina lost this game – when the damn thing headed into overtime I new my money would never be seen again, as it’s downright impossible to win by 8 when overtime starts. But I still wanted East Carolina to keep their BCS Crusher bid for a few more weeks – now all they can do is over achieve and get some crappy bowl game against an overrated Pac 10 team and crush them just to prove a point. Lets write it down right now, I have the Pirates over Arizona State on a random December 29th bowl game.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (LOSS): This was as close as the spread indicated, but the home team Panthers pulled it out against the Hawks with a 4th quarter touchdown. The Hawkeyes lost by a point, and I lost by a couple – my hopes for a last minute field goal were crushed when Iowa’s quarterback lost a fumble with time winding down. Tough loss here, but a loss nonetheless.

Central Michigan Chippewas @ Purdue Boilermakers (-10) (LOSS): I was had by Dan LeFevour – damn me! I knew all about the kid, but I didn’t think the Chipps could hang with Purdue. But of course they did, the big quarterback tossed the ball around the Boilermakers’ secondary for nearly 300 yards and gave his guys a chance. But, Kory Sheets ran in a 46 yard touchdown with a minute left and Purdue won – but not by enough, just a touchdown. I lost again!

Central Florida Knights (+10.5) @ Boston College Eagles (LOSS): I was stoked headed into halftime up 7-3 in this game thinking, “This ain’t going to be a problem at all!” hahaha – famous last thoughts. Before I could inhale my pulled pork sandwich the Eagles were up 17-7. By the time I finished watching the game, my covering dreams had been crushed like an obese wingless fly, and the Eagles rolled off 31 unanswered points in the 2nd half. Oh boy.

Akron Zips (-10) @ Army Black Knights (WINNER): Up 9-3 to start the 2nd half, I liked my chances. Up 12-3 to start the 4th quarter I was looking for some help. The last think I wanted was Akron to play it real safe and just realize that all they needed to do was run clock, because no way Army was scoring a couple times in this one. Luckily, I got 10 in the 4th and the Zips smashed the Black Knights 22-3, covering easily.

Buffalo Bulls (+34.5) @ Missouri Tigers (WINNER): “This one will be much closer. Buffalo is sneaky, and a pretty solid offense should get them points. If they can score 3 touchdowns, which I think should happen, then Missouri will have to put up more than 54 points to cover. I don’t see that happening.” I must say, I called this game to a T – hopefully you really got excited about my analysis and bet the house here, because the Bulls scored 3 touchdowns, and the Tigers didn’t have enough time to put up 54 to cover. A 42-21 Missouri victory made me feel grand.

Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ UCLA Bruins (WINNER): “That whole first game upset that put UCLA back on the map seems to be a long time back – and that map, well, they are still on it, but all four edges are burning back to the ashtray it came from.” BACK TO THE ASHTRAY!!! Haha, Bruins fans, see, Rick New-weasel doesn’t have all the answers. UCLA isn’t a team that’s going to beat your Tennessee’s on a normal basis – don’t be confused. But then again, Tennessee isn’t looking all that good right now are they? They’d still beat the Bruins 8 out of 10 times. Arizona will be a tough Pac-10 squad, and considering their bottom of the bin standing over the past few seasons, they might just have nice value for most of the season.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan State Spartans (-8.5): “Don’t be confused, Michigan beat Michigan last week, and the Irish just got credit for the win because they were the team lucky enough to be playing them in Week 3. Javon Ringer is 10 points better than the Irish. Believe that.” You better believe that – if you didn’t prior to Saturday’s action, then you certainly do now. RInger put up another 200+ yard performance, and the Spartans beat the Irish 23-7 in a game that wasn’t that close. I watched most of this battle, and Notre Dame’s offense was pathetic. The much better team won easily.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 3

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Questions and Answers – let the evil genius do his dirty work!!!

Billiam from Southy writes, “Do you really think the Patriots have a chance to win the Super Bowl without Tom in attendance? I just can’t see the Colts doing much without Peyton, the Cowboys doing anything without Romo, and even the Steelers doing work against Pittsburgh – how can the Pats still have a chance?”

Well Billiam (Bill and Williams meshing in one is pure brilliance), I have a feeling Pats do indeed have a chance, and there is one reason why – Bill Belichick. The real Evil Genius has his work cut out for him, no doubt about that, but he can still game plan for anything, this is just considered an extreme challenge. I couldn’t think about a tougher way to win a Super Bowl, or a more awkward pre-season to lose your league MVP – but yes, I still like the Pats chances just about as much as anyone else in the AFC. It’s funny, there were a few seconds there where Cassel looked like he was getting cut, Gutierrez was easily outplaying him, and Matt was really struggling. When you add that to the fact that Cassel looked terrible in his only action last year, it seemed his time in New England was just about over. Then Matt Gutie was cut, Tom was hurt, and here Matt is, the team’s success unpredictably in his hands. I love it. Not as many points- not as many chances on the field -but I still like the Pats to win 11 or 12 and be a tough out in the playoffs.

Douglas from the O asks, “Do you think Jonathan Stewart has officially become the #1 guy in Carolina? I may be a little biased, having taken some classes with Jon last season, but he looks like the better runner and it seems like Carolina is going to him with the game on the line. Can I start him this week?”

You may be biased, but you hit this one right in the O. Except I wouldn’t start him this week, not against Minnesota. I also wouldn’t say he is the “official #1” – in fact, he’s the “official #2” – but very similar to Maurice Jones Drew the last couple years in Jacksonville, the #2 is a better option that the #1 and it seems like hardheadedness and veteran favortism are the only reasons the “backups” aren’t getting more looks. I can see why both Fred Taylor and DeAngelo are starting, don’t get me wrong, but I also see a lot of value and some dynamic ability from these back-ups. Hold on to your former classmate, I think his time will come, and he’ll be one hell of a start.

Rollie from Anchorage says, “How do you like you some Steve Smith this weekend? Would you start him over Eddie Royal and Dwayne Bowe?”

Rollie, you bet. I love me some Steve Smith, and while Eddie Royal looks like a great option, and Bowe doesn’t look like a bad ride either, Steve is probably pretty amped to help his team considering they went 2-0 without him, and he’s the best player in this bunch. As much as anyone, (besides maybe my nephew), I like Eddie Royal – but Steve Smith is what Royal can only hope to become. He’s a less polished version of Smith right now, and while he does play against New Orleans, it’s not like Minnesota’s secondary is solid either. Bowe goes up against the Falcons, a secondary that is also poor, but he has Tyler Thigpen throwing him the ball – could be decent for Dwayne, but he doesn’t have Jake Delhomme or Jay Cutler throwing him the ball, right? Go with Steve Rollie!

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 2

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Couldn’t even break 100… Got crushed by a couple guys and finished with 95 points. This was the damage!

QB: Peyton Manning vs. Minnesota: 311 yards, sure, but his 1 touchdown and 2 picks didn’t help me much. Peyton was only good for 14 fantasy points.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: 10 carries for 26 yards, 2 catches for 12? Oh no you didn’t LT. This point total bruises my soul, 5 fantasy points for the king. His toe injury hurt him, but his stat line killed me.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis: Without scoring a touchdown, Peterson still finished tied for 4th amongst running backs with 22 fantasy points – he now leads the league in rushing yards.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Jets: 2 catches for 22 yards. Dang it! I was brutal a couple times this week.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Minnesota: 20 fantasy points, good for 10th amongst receivers.

TE: Heath Miller vs. Cleveland: 5 fantasy points – should have taken Scheffler (24 fantasy points) should have done a lot in all these years, this wasn’t my worst decision.

K: Rod Bironas vs. Cincinnati: 6 points- 1 field goal, 3 extra points – actually a good day for my kickers – still, not great considering all the options (30).

D: Giants vs. St. Louis: 19 fantasy points, good for 3rd amongst defenses – solid pick. That’s what 6 sacks and 1 interception return for a touchdown will do for ya.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

JaMarcus Russell: “220+ and 2 scores… Doubt me? We’ll see who is right.” Oh dang it! My foot tastes so bad after walking around bare-foot all weekend. 2 freaking fantasy points – doubters, you got me on this one! F

Aaron Rodgers: 4th amongst quarterbacks after throwing 3 touchdown passes against the Lions. He now has accounted for 5 touchdowns and zero turnovers in two games. A+

Chris Johnson: Gathered over 100 yards this week, 2 catches for 12 yards as well. He’s legit. B

Julius Jones: 4th overall running back in Week 2 – A+ for me on that one.

Laurence Maroney: Maroney looked off before an injury took him out of the game. Maybe I’m just wrong about this kid? F

Antwaan Randel El: 4 catches for 53 yards, looks like Jason Campbell figured out who to give more looks to last week (see Santana Moss’s totals in your fantasy league). D+

Anthony Gonzalez: Great day for Gonzo – those that played him reaped the benefits – 22 fantasy points good for 7th amongst wide receivers… Has he taken over Marvin’s spot as the #2? A+

Robert Meachem: He only had 1 catch for 19 yards, but that one was a touchdown. He’ll turn up the heat, still, 8 fantasy points didn’t kill anyone. C-

Dustin Keller: 1 catch for 19 yards… ugh… F

Cardinals: Just 12 fantasy points, they allowed less than two touchdowns for the 2nd straight week, but just 2 sacks limited their fantasy potential. Still, not bad. B

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Chris Perry: Perry actually had a pretty nice day considering. He played against the Titans, and the Benglas passing attack as sucked. He managed 64 rushing yards and a touchdown. I’ll say I was wrong here.

Steven Jackson: Jackson had 13 carries for 53 yards and 7 catches for 37 yards. No scores. 8 fantasy points in a non PPR – 15 in a PPR. Exactly what I expected, sit him if you had better options.

Chris Chambers: 13th overall in fantasy last week – tricked me good. This one was a failure.

Devery Henderson: 2 fantasy points – right on the number with this one.

theRUNDOWN: Week 3

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Week 3 has some happy match-ups – big time sits – and a couple that have me wondering what I’ve got myself into – oh the intrigue! This old man played nick knack paddy whack, gave a dog a bone, and then went with Jill up to the well and filled her pocket full of posies. Believe that ryhme, son! Here’s my best plays of the week.

QB: Tony Romo vs. Packers: I don’t know why, maybe because there will be another guy putting up points on the other team, but Romo is giving me that 4 touchdown vibe. After a tough start, Romo turned it on and burned the Eagles last week. I say he does the same against another good defense.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. New York Jets: I have to get him right some time right? Is LT too old? Is he done? Is his injury holding him back? I’m answering no to all of those, heck, I’m answering, NO! LT goes off against the Jets – that’s my bet. If he randomly doesn’t play, then I’ll switch my pick to Sproles.

RB: Michael Turner vs. KC: The Burner will be leaving jet streams all over the field on Sunday. The Chiefs are bad – Turner is good, he will run like the wind – the wind carrying a freaking anvil. This kid is a beast, watch him run with admiration. Plus, I always wanted to start LT and Mike in my best options list.

WR: Plaxico Burress vs. Bengals: I have no reason to believe this, but I think the Bengals hold close in this game, put up some points, and keep Eli throwing. If that’s the case, Burress goes wild. Even if it isn’t, I’m sure the Giants will throw in the first half – that would make Burress a nice option.

WR: Steve Smith vs. Minnesota: Because now that I can I will. I love me some Steve Smith – he’s a more seasoned version of Eddie Royal and I believe he torches the Vikings.

TE: Jeremy Shockey vs. Denver: He’s the best receiver they have right now, the safeties in Denver don’t scare me, and this game will be chalked full of points. It just makes sense.

K: Josh Brown vs. Seattle: Not that it matters but I might as well try.

D: Patriots vs. Miami: This defense is putting a lot on their shoulders, seems like they’d dominate this game with all that confidence.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrard: I know he’s really struggled, but that’s how he’s become a sleeper – Bob’s absence kills the Colts D.

Aaron Rodgers: Against Dallas on the main state? You bet I still like Rodgers. But another good one here and he can’t be considered sleeper material.

JT O’Sullivan: Martz versus the Lions. You bet. Top 10 QB this week.

Maurice Jones Drew: Best runner in Jacksonville hits gold against a Bon Sanders-less Colts team.

Julius Jones: I like Julius to do his thing again, this time against the Rams.

Sammy Morris: He’ll get most of the carries and score a touchdown or two against Miami.

Chad Ocho Cinco: Is it bad when a guy changes his name and then doesn’t do dick? That’s where Mr. 85 is at right now. He’s in sleeper status. I think he has a nice game though, he’ll have to to keep the Bengals in it.

Anthony Gonzalez: The Jaguars don’t scare me in the secondary, and Gonzalez is becoming the #2 in Indy, shhhh… Don’t tell Marvin.

Derrick Mason: Lots of catches, almost 100 yards – that’s worth a sleeper pick.

Todd Heap: Heap will get some this week. Finally. Then you’ll pick him up off the waiver wire and be crushed in Week 4. But still – nice sleeper this week.

Buffalo: Not sure they are a sleeper, but they should handle the Raiders rushing attack.

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jamal Lewis: He always runs well against the Ravens, right? Not this time Jamal.

DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart: It will be the Delhomme to Steve Smith game if the Panthers want a shot – neither back will do much for you this week.

Chris Perry: Another tough one for Chris – ha, seem familiar? The Bengals play a tough schedule – good year for that.

Hines Ward: I don’t think Hines keeps catching touchdowns like this, not this week against a good Eagles secondary anyway.

Five for Friday: Week 3

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Here goes nothing…

  1. That whole thing about Calvin Johnson being a great receiver – yeah, it’s true. This kid is going to dominate yardage totals this season in the NFL. Brandon Marshall and his destructive ways are getting a lot of hype right now, and reasonably so, he caught about 20 balls in his first week of action. But this week Calvin Johnson goes up against the rickety 49ers defense and he’s going off. Nobody in the league can guard this beast of a receiver that has elite speed. Top 3 this year – and all of those guys that did risk it a little and reach for him – nice work.

  2. Steve Smith to pull a Brandon Marshall? It seems to perfect for Smith, right? Steve goes off against the Vikings in his past, and now, after punching his teammate in the face with a blind side shot, he comes back from a two game suspension and who does he see? Purple people eaters everywhere. I’ve been dying to get Smith in my lineup, and I have to believe that he’ll have a little something special for us in Week 3. Its not like they are running against the Vikes – that’s for sure.

  3. If you have a Bronco – start him. Okay, if you own Darrell Jackson, don’t start him, but the rest of these guys are fair game. That means Cutler, Royal, Young, Marshall, Scheffler, and maybe even Andre Hall. The Saints are a bad defense when healthy, and right now they look like the Seahawks receiving corps. Pretty soon they’ll be hiring ex-players that they kicked off their team years ago – aghem, Koren Robinson drop.

  4. Is it fair to say that I was wrong about Larry Johnson? I’m kind of interested as to why he isn’t getting touches for the pathetic Chiefs offense. I understand he had 10 carries for 22 yards last week, but really, who is a better option? And why would you take one of the best bruisers the league has and remove him from goal line packages? I’m beginning to think either LJ has lost his game (ala John Daily after the turn) or Herman Edwards and the Chiefs front office are just plain crazy. It’s hard not to start him if you got him, I mean he’s not really going up a defensive front that will scare you. Take one last chance on him, that’s my best advice.

  5. I’ve already used the Giants and Patriots (in reverse order) for my survival pool, and that’s why I’m going with the Bills this week. I know, they are the Bills, but this team has a little something. I’m trying to jinx myself here I guess, but I’ve never lost a survivor pool in my life. Mind that I’ve only played two seasons of no hit ball, but I am two for two. The Bills have a great match-up against a pretty soft Raiders group. That bodes well for them, especially in Buffalo. Both the Pats and Giants are solid options as well. What was my best survivor pick of all time you ask? (Or I want to tell you, either way) The Rams over the Saints last season. If you go back, you’ll see that the Rams were winless and playing a Saints team that had won a few in a row. The Rams win. I win. And even better, the two teams I beat picked the Saints. Nothing is better than winning a survivor pool taking a big underdog against the huge favorite your buddy just took.

Three for Thursday: Week 3

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I figured I might as well put up a couple of my pre-season predictions that aren’t only looking good, but brilliant as of heading into Week 3. Without patting myself on the back any harder, here’s three big ones…

1. The first prediction I’m sharing is actually 2 predictions, and both look good. “Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in yards (receiving and rushing combined).” and “Chris Johnson is the NFL’s version of Usain Bolt.” Of course he is. I love sharing this one because my uncle and I fought hard on this one, so much so that he threw up a prediction that LenDale would lead the Titans in fantasy points. Newsflash pops, I was right about this kid. He’s too quick not to get the ball to, and check this out, he runs like a tough man. He’s already supposed to get more touches in Week 3. That doesn’t bode well for LenDale owners, and it surely doesn’t look good for your prediction or the poor Houston Texans defense they’ll be going up against. Yhatzee!

2. Yet another two predictions deep for this one… “Tom Brady won’t throw more than 35 touchdowns this season,” and even better yet, “(Two of Three) Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady will miss at least one football game due to injuries.” You have to admit, it’s looking good. I’m not one to hope for injuries, but Brett is in a new system that has him thinking a bit more, plus the law of averages isn’t on his side (never hurt, really old – put it together). But I’m guessing Peyton is the guy that misses a game. His offensive line is struggling, and he doesn’t get his center back for a few weeks. I hope not, because even though I’m not the biggest fan of the guy, he’s a great football player for sure and I don’t want anyone to ever get hurt, but don’t be surprised if he gets dinged here in the next couple games. That would make this prediction 100% true.

3. “Frank Gore will eclipse 1,500 total yards, 70 receptions, and score 10+ touchdowns. ” There were a lot of people, “experts” out there ready to give Gore a busty title before the season even started. Not I. I knew that Gore was the quickest way for Mike Martz to score points, and if there’s ever been anything that guy likes to do it’s eat Popeye’s Chicken and score points. After two games, Mr. Gore has 157 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 9 catches for 93 receiving yards. Besides the touchdowns, which I think will come, he’s on pace (lets say he plays 14 games) to rush for 1,100 yards, catch 63 balls for 651 yards and score 7 times. That looks about right. He doesn’t have to play tough defenses and he is the man in San Fran. Roll on Mr. Gore!

NCAA Free Picks: Week 4

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Well Alright! I killed my picks last week, breaking through the proverbial wall to collect 12 wins against just 4 losses. That put me 7 games up and over .500 on the season after a tough Week 3 grabbed me by the crab apples. I can’t explain why anyone would put crab apples in their cheeks, except for the single fact that they are indeed better than other things you could put there. However, I can pick 9 college games – here’s what I see coming up this beautiful weekend.

Temple Owls (+29) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: Don’t tell the Nittany Lions, but Temple is a pretty solid football team. No doubt, the Lions are solid, per usual, but Temple isn’t the pushover those ugly uniforms have been in the past. I always worry about very good teams having to play former terrible teams, like Temple, because of the memories of their worthlessness that still resides. It will take a quarter or two, but eventually Penn State will pull away. That being said, it’s hard to pull away by more than 4 touchdowns. I’ll take the Owls.

East Carolina Pirates (-7.5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: East Carolina is dealing with a couple injury problems, yes, but they are still much better than a very down Wolfpack group. The Pirates lost one of the fastest players in all of football to the NFL, but their team speed is still much greater than this poor ACC team. Nothing’s worse these days than being a bad team in a bad conference. Look for East Carolina to continue their winning ways with a 21 point win at NC State.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: This isn’t free money, the Hawkeyes will have to do some work on defense, but I’m pretty sure this one won’t be coming down to the wire. Pittsburgh is just too inconsistent to put the Hawkeyes in a bind. Iowa might not have the hype this season that they’ve had in years’ past, but they always have a solid program. If Pittsburgh has shown me one thing it’s that they are very overrated. They may have a guy I think is the best running back in college football, but they don’t use him very well, and their loss of Jeff Otah is hurting them right now. Take the Hawkeyes to down the Panthers.

Central Michigan Chippewas @ Purdue Boilermakers (-10): Free Money! I really love this game. Purdue is going to put up about 35 against Central Michigan, and there’s nothing the Chips will be able to do about it. Purdue -10 at home against this team looks so lopsided that it worried me at first. Then I decided that the books just miss one from time to time. Hopefully this one doesn’t get me where it counts.

Central Florida Knights (+10.5) @ Boston College Eagles: I actually really believe that the Central Florida Knights are the better team here. Does that make me crazy or delusional? I don’t know, possibly, but let me tell you this, taking a team that I think is better as a 10.5 point dog feels so right, and gets me so excited, that I think I’m going to go make me a big brilliant lunch and put butter on everything! The Knights pull the upset against yet another hapless ACC unit.

Akron Zips (-10) @ Army Black Knights: I never thought I’d ever be taking the Zips as a favorite, let alone a two score fave – but here I am and I like my chances. Army doesn’t have anything going for them except they are tough. They don’t have Air Force’s talent nor do they have Navy’s rushing attack. All they have is a tough game against the freaking Zips on their hands. Take Akron on the road.

Buffalo Bulls (+34.5) @ Missouri Tigers: Sure, the Tigers have won their last two games by a total score of 121-20, but they didn’t face the Bulls! Ha. This one will be much closer. Buffalo is sneaky, and a pretty solid offense should get them points. If they can score 3 touchdowns, which I think should happen, then Missouri will have to put up more than 54 points to cover. I don’t see that happening. It’s tough to bet against the high scoring Tigers, but given the Bulls are a solid group, it makes it easy to do with a coke and a smile.

Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ UCLA Bruins: That whole first game upset that put UCLA back on the map seems to be a long time back – and that map, well, they are still on it, but all four edges are burning back to the ashtray it came from. I’m betting on a solid Wildcats attack to come into UCLA and brow beat them into submission. Okay, they’ll at least run all over the Bruins. Arizona played poorly in a trap game last week, as they were certainly looking ahead to their first Pac-10 showdown. Well, now that they saw UCLA get beat 59-0 they probably aren’t as scared. I’m marking that down as a good thing. We’ll see. I thought Arizona was the much better team to start the season, and one UCLA 59-0 showing against BYU didn’t stop me from thinking that.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan State Spartans (-8.5): Don’t be confused, Michigan beat Michigan last week, and the Irish just got credit for the win because they were the team lucky enough to be playing them in Week 3. Now comes Michigan State, and they’ll be ready for one of the Nations most popular and disturbingly overrated college programs. The Spartans passing attack is brutal right now, but they won’t need to throw the ball all that much. Javon Ringer is 10 points better than the Irish. Believe that.

DIRECTV – ESPN GamePlan Free NCAA Picks: Week 4

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After a losing Week 2 got me down, I fought right back and I put up a 12-4-1 record in Week 3. For the season, that brought me 7 games over .500. I was 7-2 with my DirecTV GamePlan picks, and I’m back at it again this week with the full5 game set from DirecTV (well, the only 5 that carry lines anyway). We’ll see if I can’t have two great weeks in a row. Here’s the short and sweet firework show…

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+8.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (12:00pm EST): This one seems easy to me. The Bulldogs play tight with everyone and Georgia Tech isn’t a force that can put up tons of points all of a sudden. In fact, G-Tech seems to run all over everyone but they can’t seem to compute all those rushing yards into points. The Bulldogs aren’t a great team, but they have the defensive fortitude to be a solid bet when greater than a touchdown underdog.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-9) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (12:30pm EST): I wouldn’t risk the house and the pool and the kids and the mistress on this one, definitely not the mistress anyway – but this seems like a pretty good bet. Sure, on the surface Arkansas is 2-0, but I can’t even list the two teams they’ve beat without really digging in the bottom of the D1 pool. Alabama isn’t a killer offensively, but the Razorbacks just don’t have the firepower to score points here. I’ll take Alabama 24-6 in this one. That covers easily.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (3:30pm EST): They have the talent, and while it is young, they’ve begun to turn it around. Tech isn’t a bad team, they were just greatly overrated to start the season. Now they are giving Tyrod Taylor the ball instead of red-shirting him like they had originally planned. Taylor is a physical specimen, and he should give the Tar Heels enough trouble to get a win for the visiting Hokies. Plus, as much as I love the Heels, history tells me they aren’t the favorite to bet on.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Texas A&M (3:30pm EST): Give me some Hurricanes here. I’m not going to call this a great bet. In fact, I’d stay away from this game as I know very little about either of these teams. However, I like the toughness Miami is playing with, and A&M isn’t impressing me with a couple close games against New Mexico and Arkansas State. Miami is turning around their program, and a road win here should keep them climbing.

Idaho Vandals @ Utah State Aggies (-4.5) (4:00pm EST): Talk about a real exciting game to feast your eyes on. Utah State is 0-3 after a 10 points loss to UNLV, a 42 point loss to Oregon, and then a 42 point loss to in state rival Utah. And get this, they are the favorite in this one. That’s because Idaho is just 1-2 with a 70-0 loss to Arizona on their resume, and this little fact – they are worse than Utah State. So, I’ll put my money on the Aggies in a game of anemic proportions.

NFL Free Picks: Week 3

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Two weeks down, 15 to go. That’s right, just a sliver of the NFL season has gone down, and already people are saying teams are in trouble. I’ll tell you one guy not in trouble, that’s me. I haven’t killed it with any undefeated weeks or anything, but two straight winners and a 19-11-1 record stares at me when I look in the mirror, and that’s not a bad way to start. Let’s see if I can make it 3 for 3 with this week’s free picks… Enjoy! Oh, and feel free to donate if I make you some dough. Ha.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (-4): This line has to be climbing up, as the Chiefs are likely to start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback and they are going up against a better all around team in Atlanta. The Chiefs can’t stop the run, and Atlanta is going to hand the ball off 40 times this weekend. That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs attempts to get that first win of the season. KC isn’t a good road team, they aren’t a good team in the first place, and they have a bad match-up against a strong running team this week. Take Atlanta.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Buffalo Bills: Oakland’s defense has shown me that they are solid. Sure, Jay Cutler carved them up, but who isn’t that guy destroying? Oakland can run the ball effectively and has a quarterback that can really fire a pass if need be. I think Oakland is better than many give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t quite the 10.5 point powerhouse at home. Take the points and the Raiders here. Expect JaMarcus Russell to have a two touchdown game, and the Raiders to stay close in Buffalo.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-5): I don’t think Houston’s run defense can slow down the Titans rushing attack enough to cover in Tennessee. Houston is in a tough spot having to go heads up against the Steelers last week, missing a home game against Baltimore, and then walking into Tennessee to see what they can muster against a very good TItans defense. I like the Texans, but see this as a tough spot for them. Look for Kerry Collins to do just enough, get the ball to Justin Gage and Algae Crumpler, and let Chris Johnson do work on Houston’s front 7.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (-13): Until the Bengals show me that they are more together than a bucket of busted Legos, I’m not even considering taking them at anything less than +17. Carson Palmer hasn’t gotten the time of day from his offensive line, and receivers seem to be running bad routes. New York’s pass rush won’t help his cause, that’s for sure. I bet he’s sweating bullets just thinking about Justin Tuck and company. The Giants have impressed me thus far, and while I don’t think they are the best team in the league, certainly not as good as they’ve played, they should still dominate a BAD Cincinnati defense and hold that stagnant offense in check.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins: I understand that the NFC East hasn’t lost a game out of their own conference this season. It’s only been two weeks, but it is definitely the scariest conference in football. Still, the Redskins had to pull some magic tricks to break off a win against the Saints last week, so much so that I’m betting not much momentum rides into this week’s home tilt against the Redskins. Arizona has played frighteningly good defense thus far, and that athletic secondary should be able to slow down Zorn’s west coast passing attack. Washington will find it hard to slow down Kurt Warner and company without a strong pass rush. If the Cardinals can keep Jason Taylor out of the backfield, and double teams will help, they should have plenty of time to pick apart the Skins all day long. Take the road dogs here.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-12.5): This is going to be one of those Patriotic blowouts. Miami is still one of the worst teams in football and despite Tom Brady’s absence, the Patriots are still one of the best. Miami allows big plays in the secondary, and they don’t have a stout rush defense either. It may be an awkward group of backs for New England, but Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and Kevin Faulk will have answers on the ground. I’m betting on New England feeling free and easy after taking down the Jets last week, and parlaying that into a big offensive day for Randy Moss and company.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears: I know the Bears are 2-0, but I still don’t see them as a good team. Maybe that changes this week if they can fend off the Bucs, a solid team all around, but my bet is that doesn’t happen. I like Tampa to effectively run the ball against a Bears front 7 that hasn’t given up much on the ground this season. Brian Griese has his ups and downs, but he has what it takes to find open receivers and speedy backs. I’m guessing this game is one of those 13-7 contests, or maybe it even gets to the 30’s, but a high scoring affair it won’t be. Tampa should shut down the Bears solid rushing game and do enough to pull the slight upset in Chicago.

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3): Carolina sure has found a way to win the first few weeks, and now they get back their own personal Vikings killer, Steve Smith. That’s right, Steve does work against the Minnesota boys and he’s back from his two game hiatus. But I don’t think that will be enough. I don’t see Carolina’s rushing attack working too well in Minnesota, and I do think their offensive attack and winning chances depend on that. Gus Frerotte starts this week in Minnesota, so the Panthers will have more to worry about through the air. We’ll see, but I have to believe that the Vikings don’t start the season 0-3. Take the Vikes to get their first win and by just enough to cover at home.

St. Louis Rams (+11) @ Seattle Seahawks: Please. I know the Rams have been bad, but what have the Hawks done to gather an 11 point margin here? Both teams are winless, so there will be an old fashioned struggle to get things on the right track. I like St. Louis’s offense better right now, and no, Koren Robinson’s signing didn’t push me over to Seattle’s side. If the Hawks win it will be there defense that makes it so. My motto there is this, if you are betting on a defense to win you a football game, never ever bet on that team if the spread is bigger than a touchdown. The Rams will score and the Hawks will be lucky if they get out of Seattle with their first win.

Detroit Lions (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers: This game comes down to a couple things. A- the Lions are winless. B- Detroit’s players hate Mike Martz more than Mike Martz wants to prove his worth. And C- these are the freaking San Francisco 49ers and never should you ever take them as a favorite. Neither team is worth their weight in copper, but Detroit has more to play for, more to lose, and a better team than does San Fran – so I’ll go with the road dogs once again.

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-4.5): New Orleans isn’t as good as people think they are – Denver is. The Broncos may have gotten a gift last week when Cutler fumbled away their chances only to get a piggy back from Ed Hachuli, a second chance, and a game winning touchdown and ballsy two point conversion to beat the Chargers – but what many people will forget is how the Broncos pretty much handles San Diego. That’s right, it’s not always the case that points tell the entire story, and this was one of those instances. The Chargers were magic late, and that got the game back on their side, but the Broncos were the better team on Sunday. That said, they are much better than a speed bump team from the NFC South. Take the Broncos to do whatever they want at home against New Orleans – pass, run, lateral – I don’t care, they are going to succeed. Take Splinter’s little ninja horses to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Everyone and their mother seems to like the road dogs in this one, but I’m not so sold. Pittsburgh is a solid group, but Philly can really play some ball, and I think they should be getting more points at home against a Steelers unit that is a little dinged up. Ben Roethlisberger will have trouble dealing with the Eagles pass rush, especially considering that his shoulder is burning as I write this. The Eagles look very confident and though they did get some help to stay close to Dallas (thank you Tony Romo), they also showed their dynamic flavor in a big NFC East showdown last Monday night. Westbrook will be able to do enough on the ground to keep the Steelers honest, and that’s not a good sign for Pittsburgh’s secondary. In a tight match, I’m taking the Eagles by a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: Bob Sanders’ injury wins me over to the dogs in this one. I think the Jaguars will run all over the Colts on Sunday. This is a pretty big game for both teams, and Jacksonville has looked anything but solid thus far, but my instinct is to trust my gut, and my gut tells me that Jacksonville has been playing well below their talent level, and that will stop now. At 0-2 there’s not much room to mess around, and I don’t imaging they’ll come out throwing all over Indy. Maurice Jones Drew should get 15-20 carries and Fred Taylor will get his touches as well. If that happens, and I believe it will, the Jaguars and Colts will both be sitting at 1-2 after Week 3.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: Free Money! It’s amazing that the Browns love has fallen this fast. I mean, even I was laughing at the “Super Bowl” chances given to the Brownies, but a 2 point dog to the rookie led Ravens? Please. Like Matt Ryan, it will be soon that Flacco learns the ups and DOWNS of the NFL. Cleveland lost a couple tough games to start the season, playing a great Cowboys team and taking a tough 10-6 game on the chin against a very good Steelers team – there will be better days, like, umm, Sunday – for example.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers: I hate to bet against Green Bay here, but even more so I hate to go against the Cowboys, a team I think is better than any other in football. My bet is this; the Cowboys will put a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers and really stymie the Packers rushing attack. Those two things will get them just over the top for a touchdown victory on the road against a very good Packers team. I also think the Packers run defense isn’t as good as it was last season. If that assessment is true, Marion Barber and Felix Jones will do some damage on the tundra in Wisconsin. Take the Cowboys here, the best team in football.

New York Jets (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: Alright, so the Chargers have been screwed around in Weeks 1 and 2, losing a pair of games on touchdowns in the last 30 seconds. They are definitely the best 0-2 team in football and they will win this week against the Jets. I’m just betting on this game being one of the 17% in which the team that wins doesn’t cover. Brett Favre will do enough in his 3rd game to hit the Chargers where it hurts, their secondary. I expect this to be Brett’s best game in Jet-green, and while I’m thinking the Chargers see the luck turn and win, I do think Brett has a chance. That chance will be good enough to stick within a touchdown and a field goal of the Chargers on Monday Night Football.