Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I liked the Jaguars a lot coming into the season, and while they’ve played well lately, they still haven’t show enough for me to ever take them as a 9 point favorite, even against a Bills team that JUST fired their coach on Tuesday, seemingly has been outscored 4000 to 17 in 4th quarters during the first 9 games, and is among the league’s worst in stopping the run (something Jacksonville heavily relies on to succeed). Basically, the Bills defense is a good match-up for the Jags, and I’m still not taking the big favorite.
Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars twice in the last 3 seasons despite being the underdog in all three games. Teh Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against the Jags since 1998, they have won 5 of the last 7 match-ups. Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville 3 of the last 4 times, and I’m sorry to say this, but Buffalo just isn’t as bad as their record (and 4th quarter play) is trying to tell you.
Now, there’s the whole coaching thing, and I want to let everyone know, I picked this game prior to Dick Jauron’s dismissal, but I actually like my chances better since the forever mediocre coach’s departure early Tuesday Morning. There’s two ways a team can go, they can be excited for the new guy or disappointed about the old guy’s departure. I’m guessing this will be option one. If anything, the new coach might pull his head out of the dirty smelling hole Dick Jauron was stuck in and get the Bills to do what they do best, run the damn football. If they do that against the Jags, this cover is as sure as they get. I’m taking a chance here, that’s for sure.