St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Now lets start with some interesting statistics this year. The Rams have lost every game by double digits, besides their 2 point loss to the Washington Redskins, and lets be honest, that really doesn’t count. That being said, they have played some pretty damn good teams, the Seahawks in Week 1 had Matt Hasselbeck, and everyone has seen how different they are with him at the helm. Week 3, 4, and 5 saw Green Bay, San Francisco, and Minnesota meet up with the Rams, and the outcomes weren’t pretty. I mean, they’ve managed just 34 points through 5 games, even the Browns think that’s terrible. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a very up and down team. They played the Colts tough in Week 1, losing 14-12 to Peyton and company. They then got thrown around in Jacksonville by the Cardinals, 31-17, and to be honest it wasn’t that close. Two straight wins to even up their record (taking down the Texans and Titans) got them some respect before Seattle came back to destroy any of that by beating them 41-0. That score isn’t a misprint. I’ve missed on the Jaguars a lot this year, but I still don’t think they deserved to be favored by 10 points against anybody. The Rams are getting healthy, as they should have the healthiest offense they’ve had all year. If they commit to the run, and I think they will, they have a chance to cover agaisnt the Jaguars. They are the worst team in football, but I haven’t liked what I’ve heard out of Jacksonville this week. Turmoil isn’t good when you’re about to play a game that’s difficult to get up for in the first place. It might be a one time thing, but I’m taking St. Louis.
Tag Archives: Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Week 2 Expert Picks Review: Football Handicapping
It would be easy to say that I should have won 11 for my Week 2 football picks for week too, because, honestly, I have to feel I picked that Monday Night game right on the button. But that’s just looking at what went wrong. If I was doing the what if business, or the should have business, I would have to admit the Giants probably shouldn’t have won on Sunday Night either… But I won 10 more games this week, starting out with double digit douzies in each of the first two weeks. Can’t ask for much more than that. This is how the cookie crumbled…
Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) This game was very close. I’m not saying I should have won, but I’m not saying I look like a dope for making this pick either. The Panthers had their chances, that’s for sure, and were driving the ball late in this game, going for a tie. Two times in the red-zone with no points ended things for Carolina, a team that I think should be a nice underdog going forward.
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-9.5): (LOSS) “At first glance this one is tough for me to stomach. Take the Rams, a team I have claimed to be the worst in football, or the Redskins, a team favored by 10 that has shown very little ability to put the ball in the end zone with Jason Campbell at the point.” I followed this by saying some things that I wish I wouldn’t have. Things I may never say again like, “I believe in the Redskins’ offense”. Washington won, sure, but they didn’t even score enough to cover if they had shut out the Rams. The play calling in Washington is very dull, lacks any sort of creativity, and basically gives Jason Campbell no chance to succeed. I don’t know why coaches insist on doing this for quarterbacks that are struggling. Making a QB easier to defend is no way to help him out, to help him improve. Both of these teams were pathetic on Sunday, but the Rams are still the worst team in football.
Houston Texans (+8) @ Tennessee Titans: (WINNER) “From what I saw from the Titans last week, they have a very good run defense. But they have holes in that secondary if the offensive line withstands that immediate surge. I think the Texans were terrible last week, but not a terrible football team. So things have to even out. The Titans should have won against Pittsburgh, but some missed field goals kept the Steelers in the game. The Titans are solid, and should run the ball well against Houston, but the Texans are closer to the Titans than 8 points. This is a divisional game, and both teams should come in with a lot to prove. That usually keeps the outcome closer, I’ll take the points.” I’m glad I got this one. Lots of points early, and Chris Johnson’s very own highlight film had me on the ropes. But just like I expected, Houston’s offense came to play, and this game was tied late. With a certain cover in the cards, I loved seeing Houston come out and upset Tennessee at home. I think Houston has this kind of offense, and will continue to give good teams trouble all season long.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1): (LOSS) “I don’t think this is a safe bet, but I’m taking the Eagles.” Hopefully you took my warning to heart, unlike myself, and didn’t wager on this game. I liked the Eagles, thought they’d be tougher defensively for Drew, but the 6 foot wonder kid torched his second straight opponent. It’s going to take a down game from Brees for his Saints to lose, and I’m not sure how easy that’s going to be to predict. The Eagles secondary is pretty solid, but Brees made them look like junior varsity most improved players… The Eagles put up lots of yards, but the Saints D made some big plays putting this one on the top shelf early.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+5): (WINNER) “I don’t like taking a team that played poorly, should have lost, and won last week. So I’m not going to do it. The Jets do lots of little things right, and their defense is stout. I’m not sure the Patriots will be able to stop the run with Seymour stuffing the line of scrimmage in Oakland and Jarrod Mayo out for a few weeks. The Jets have a very solid offensive line, and I think they’ll be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.” You could see the chip on the Jets’ shoulders all game long. New York is too good defensively to be a 5 point dog, and their offensive line is too good for that as well. They do the little things right, they should have won this game, and they did.
Oakland Raiders (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) Well, JaMarcus Russell was brutal, the Raiders didn’t run all that well, but KC’s offense couldn’t put up points either, and the Raiders pulled out a win in KC. I liked the Raiders to win this one, and they did just enough to make that happen. I wouldn’t say the beat up on the Chiefs, but as a four point dog against a bad offense, you don’t need to kill to be an easy cover. I thought the Raiders were exactly that.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): (LOSS) Kurt Warner was amazingly accurate, and the Cardinals, never a good team playing on the East Coast, got to 1-1 on the season by smashing a Jaguars team that doesn’t look that good. Jacksonville needs something, and I’m not sure it’s players… Just saying.
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) “I hate to do this, because I think the Packers are a lot better than they played last week, but I can’t take a team that played poorly last week, pulled out a win anyway, and is now favored by 9 over a defense that looks much improved. I think the Bengals offense will improve every week, and from Week 1 to Week 2 will be no difference. People will look at this game and say, the Bengals suck, they lost to the terrible Broncos, but I don’t see it that way. I don’t think the Broncos are bad, they just aren’t great. And it took a pretty big fluke for the Bengals to get ousted in Week 1. Nine is a lot of points, and an improved Bengals defense should keep it closer than that. A couple big plays from Palmer and Chad, and this could be a big upset in Week 1. Survivor players, steer clear!” Please tell me you listened up and didn’t go with the Packers in your survivor games… I know I stayed away, and for good reason. That first part of what I said, never take a team that played poorly and just slipped by and is now a big favorite – write that down, put it in a safe, and look in that safe every week before making your picks.
Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Like everyone else, I liked the Vikings here. For all the obvious reasons that made them one of the more popular picks in Week 2 – so I don’t need to go into much detail. All I know is that Stafford still isn’t ready as his two more interceptions in Week 2 show. If the Lions want to win, Culpepper is their guy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) @ Buffalo Bills: (LOSS) This was a tough one. Buffalo jumped out early, and honestly if it weren’t for some big dropped passes by TO, this game would have been an even bigger blowout. I really expected good things from the Bucs run game in this one, but like many running teams, if you start off way behind it’s tough to get the run game started. A swing and a miss no doubt.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5): (WINNER) “I think the 49ers just play a tougher brand of football that makes a tough match-up for the Hawks. Frank Gore’s running style seems to eat up the smallish Hawks front 7, and especially with Leroy Hill out, Seattle should have trouble preventing Gore from averaging less than 5 yards a carry. I think San Fran will feed the man the ball, and that should be enough to pull a home win in Week 2.” My buddy, and fantasy writer on my site, Red Red Ryan, told me that I was nuts for taking the 49ers here, and when I told him that Frank Gore would dominate the Hawks, he asked me when the last time he had 100 yards against the Hawks was…. Well, needless to say, when I got a text midway through the 1st quarter, I was happy to see a reply saying: “Well that didn’t take long.” Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re right and your friend is wrong. Like my buddy Josh says, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3) : (WINNER) I liked the Broncos at home, but I didn’t expect them to blow Cleveland out. Now it was just 13-6 going into the 4th quarter, but Denver really ran this game. I liked them a lot more than most people did, coming into the season, but their defensive prowess has been even better than I expected.
Baltimore Ravens (+4) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) This game was pretty interesting. A couple huge plays defensively got Baltimore the win, but contrary to what I expected, it was offense that dominated this box score, but it wasn’t the offensive numbers that won the game. Phillip Rivers put up 436 passing yards against the Ravens, that’s nuts. But SD couldn’t run the ball at all, and the Ravens ended up eating up the clock and being more physical up front. Willis McGahee had a big day, but it was Ray Lewis that shut the Chargers down on 4th down in the 4th quarter, ending the game. The Ravens were going to cover either way, but the win felt nice.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+3): (WINNER) “The Steelers’ offensive line is pretty bad, just ask Willie Parker and his 19 yards on 13 carries last week… They played a poor game and should have lost last week against the Titans, but Tennessee kept pooping the bed every time they got into the red-zone area. …Cutler also has the ability to make some big plays too, and a couple big plays could be enough points to beat the Steel City. There’s no doubt in my mind that Cutler will be better in his second outing, and while the Steelers are very tough defensively, their offense isn’t strong enough to blow a solid team out. Chicago is a good team. I think this one is close, but I’m going against the defending champs here.” There you go. The Steelers’ O-line wasn’t good enough to beat up the Bears defense as Pitt’s run game never got on track. Ben threw the ball all over the field again, but like I said, that’s no way to get a sure win. Chicago took advantage, hung in, and used some big throws to get the win in a game nobody thought they had a chance in. I like to win, don’t get me wrong, but I love to win when I have readers writing in and telling me how wrong I am about said pick. Guys, I’m not mailing you back and telling you I told you so, because you know what’s up.
New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) So, when I pick a game wrong I admit it. And I’ve always been one to tell you if I pick a game wrong, win or lose. This is one of those cases. If I had to do it again, I’d probably go with the Cowboys in this situation. They played better. They were the better team, and they smashed the Giants around. New York needed some freak stuff to happen and a terrible game from Mr. Romo to win this game – and that’s what they got. In most instances, Tony doesn’t throw the ball around like Ryan Leaf, but thank goodness for me, and all those other Giant backers, that’s exactly what he did on Sunday Night. Don’t worry though, I took some Karma on Monday Night.
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (+3): (LOSS) “I think they’ll run the ball very effectively, and upset Indy. The Colts had a lot of big numbers last week, but just barely snuck by the Jaguars. Now, that’s what the Colts do from time to time, but I think it’s because Indy just isn’t as powerful as they once were. Basically, I expect the same Colts I saw last week and a much better Dolphins team than the one that lost a pushover to the Falcons.” What more can I say? Did I or did I not have this game right on the freaking button? The Dolphins ran the show on Monday Night, and all signs point to them winning the game. However, some pretty poor coaching, some terrible calls on their last field goal drive and on the final drive of the game, Ted Ginn Jr. dropping the game winner in the end zone, and this guy name Peyton Manning and his Colts barely sneaking by just happened to do me in by a single point. You win most of these, you lose some. That’s just the way it goes.
When all is edited and rephrased, I took ten this week. I’ll take 10 Wins every week for the rest of my life and smile from ear to ear. Until next week!
NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 6
I didn’t win another week, but headed into Monday Night I needed an underdog Cleveland cover to finish a tough start Week 6 at .500 – it’s always nice to pull out of a week at even after going 0-4 to start your morning.
Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) The Ravens laid a big freaking egg, and even if the Colts played terrible they would have covered this game. 3 points? Ugh – 5 Joe Flacco turnovers didn’t help.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: (LOSS) But, I picked this game with the understanding that Carson Palmer would play. I told you all in my Five for Friday that the Bengals are no longer a good bet at +6 – I’m taking this loss, but only because of my good nature – there is no way I would have taken Cinci without Palmer. But as you saw, this game was not walk through for the Jets, it was close throughout.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) The Panthers laid a huge egg as well – looks like I was picking some chickens this week. The Bucs came out and slapped the Panthers around pretty good.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) Damn Chicago! No, really, there were some plays in this game that just magically went the Falcons way. Matt Ryan had a huge day through the air, but he through a couple passes that were sure thing interceptions, jut the Bears couldn’t manage to get their hands wrapped around the ball. I watched this game from kickoff until Jason Elam’s game winning field goal, and Atlanta must have had 3rd and long almost 10 times during the game. They got it every freaking time. That’s weird. I think I picked the right side here, but my 4th straight loss came hard.
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): (WIN) Finally a win. The Saints anhilated the Raiders, just like I thought they would. Lane Kiffin was a good coach, maybe dumb dumb will see that by the time Oakland gets blown out for the 10th straight time.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): (LOSS) Detroit should have won this game, and obviously they covered easily. Minnesota looks absolutely lost and if it wasn’t for a gift pass interference call by some hopeless zebra, the Lions would have their first win – on the road against their division rival.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: (WIN) I thought this game might come down to the wire. Houston got it done with 3 seconds to go, but my Dolphins still covered. That’s what I like to call brilliant. I was hoping Houston would get a win, their talent deserves more than what they’ve got in the win column thus far, and I was also hoping to cover. Both happened Sunday.
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): (LOSS) Rams win. Yep, 4 fumble turnovers for the Redskins, and the Rams (thought they didn’t do anything all day offensively) get the win in Washington, crushing survivor pool hopes everywhere. This huge spread should have ran me off – what was I thinking?
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) When Maurice Jones Drew gets the ball 20+ times the Jags are almost always going to win. Now if they’d just realize that. Jacksonville walked into Denver and handled the Broncos. They were more physical and took advantage of the Broncos soft defensive front. Oh, and the Broncos secondary is bad too. Weird.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WIN) It was sure close going into the 4th quarter, but Philly snapped out of it, and took advantage of some Mike Martz play calling and what do you know, I get another much needed win for this week.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) The Cardinals were apparently the play here. Dallas looked lost, and you have to wonder how they’ll do with Tony Romo (their most consistent player) out for 4 weeks. Hmmm… Arizona took this game one a blocked punt in overtime, and my dreams of a last second overtime touchdown for the Cowboys were dismantled. But at least the Cowboys lost, that will make a family Lucky Lester happy as usual.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WIN) “Stay away from Washington sports.” The Huskies had a bye week, but the Cougars lost to Oregon State by about 50 easily failing to cover in that game. The Hawks played without Matt Hasselbeck and they looked bad. The Packers did pretty much anything they wanted, and the Hawks are really looking bad lately.
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): (WIN) And this one was easy breazy. The Chargers came out and did anything they wanted to do. They threw deep, they threw shallow, and while LT continued to struggle with his yards per carry, he even looked reasonably close to the Old LT on Sunday Night. I’ll take this one and wonder about the Patriots moving forward.
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But “…the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.” Well, I picked this one right on the button and it brought me to even on the week. I’ll take it. On to Week 7!!!
NFL Free Picks: Week 6
I had a solid week in Week 5, pulling 3 more games up on the season while going 8-5-1. This week I’m looking for another winning week to keep my game going. Here’s what I like and the other ones I have to pick. The road teams seem to be getting most of my attention this week, while dogs and favorites are split right down the middle. Enjoy the show.
Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: I can’t see value in the Colts right now. I don’t love Baltimore and I think Peyton has played well against them in the past, but right now I think a tough Ravens running game will give an inconsistent Colts team trouble, even if the Ravens can’t pass real well with Flacco running the show. I expect Addai to get close to nothing and Willis McGahee to have his best game of the year. Picking against the Colts always makes me worry a bit, but this seems like pretty solid value.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: I hate taking the Bengals, really, I do. I just think they are better than their 0-5 record and it has to turn around somewhere. I’m not dying in love with this game, but +6 for a Bengals team that’s played a lot of close games recently, I like that more than taking a Jets team that hadn’t really impressed me before two weeks ago against Arizona.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I’ve always liked the Panthers as a dog, and even though I buy Tampa Bay as an underrated team, and probably see some value with them at home in this one, my gut is telling me to go with the Panthers – so, screw a bunch of value, I’m going Carolina Blue on this one.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: Am I living on the edge here? Picking against the Falcons once again? I know they’ve been killing me a few times this year, but I think Forte is too much of a force for the Falcons defensive front and I like what Orton has been doing through the air. I think Atlanta is much improved, but the Bears are back (at least better than they were). I’m still not ready to fully buy in to the Bears rolling to the playoffs, but week after week they move up in my book.
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): I think the Raiders with Lane Kiffin is a great value here – but Lane was fired because Al Davis was beginning to look like an idiot -fair enough. Until the Raiders prove otherwise, I’m definitely not picking them. I actually felt comfortable taking Oakland in this situation, because I’ve never thought much of the Saints, but at just a touchdown this one is a home team special for me.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): Similar to Washington State sports, you can’t see much love for Detroit or St. Louis in the NFL right now. The Vikings are a decent team, they should have lost on Monday Night, but they are a decent team. They will run more and be more effective doing it against the Lions, and of course they can always throw if the need to. Detroit won’t be able to run, and their whole plan to do a scaled down offense with the hurry up seems like a backfire waiting to happen. Gimics don’t get you wins in the NFL, take the Vikings or don’t bet this game at all.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: The 3.5 (the .5 part) gives me some value on the Dolphins. They do a good job of following their game plan, play discipline football, and make few mistakes offensively. I think the Texans are a much better team than 0-4 indicates, though, so if I had the choice I wouldn’t play this game. Houston has a solid offense and a defense with lots of talent, I think they will only get better as the seasons moves forward. I just like the fact that if Miami loses by a field goal I still win.
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): All those points, what shall we do with them? Juggle them, shoot them in a hoop, I don’t care, I’d just stay away from any kind of “value bet” involving the St. Louis Rams. At -13.5 they might have some value, if they weren’t the Rams. If Detroit wasn’t around, the Rams would the be the sure thing worst team in football. Cincinnati and Cleveland would wallop the Rams. I like what the Redskins are doing, and honestly, they don’t have a weakness right now. They are getting healthier on defense and even with two touchdowns needed to cover, I think this is a solid bet.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: This is another tough call for me. I like the Jaguars to run all over the Broncos, but I also like Denver to throw the ball all over the Jaguars secondary. It’s like these two teams are made to put up loads of points on each other. At 48, I’d be taking the over instead of playing either side of this game. I guess, like the Miami game, I see a little bit more value in +3.5, because if Denver comes down and kicks a field goal to win it I still win with the Jags. If Cutler and his receivers don’t hit on all cylinders then that also gives the value nod to Jacksonville. Even with a mediocre offensive line, the Jags should be all ball control in this one. Tough call, but my lean is on Jacksonville at +3.5.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: I like the Eagles in this one, in fact I love them. Philly has played like poo-poo over the last two weeks, and the week before that they weren’t brilliant either. That usually means good things for Eagles’ backers, as Philly is a one team slump buster. I think they do a lot right this weekend, even without Westbrook (if he indeed doesn’t play). Buckhalter is a nice running back, and without Westy they’ll just have to plan to get the ball to receiver’s hands more. The Eagles going to 2-4 with a loss to the 49ers, I don’t see it.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: I like Dallas to dismantle the Cardinals, or at least win by a touchdown. I think the Boys bring a lot of speed at the quarterback, and while Warner has been pretty good (despite one turnover happy game) he has always been prone to the mistake, and Dallas has the athletes and offense to really make him pay. Arizona has a chance because of their run defense, but I like Barber to have a solid game against the Cardinals – that should cut out any hopes the Cards have at an upset here. Jason Witten and Terrell Owens should be enough to keep the Cardinals’ secondary occupied, meaning that extra help the front 7 usually gets won’t be there for much of the game. Cowboys are the play here.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Stay away from Washington sports. Seattle’s bound to have another receiver injury this week, and if that happens they’ll have to dress up Charlie Frye in an 80 number and see if he can’t pass for Steve Largent. Green Bay had a little bit too much hype after the first couple weeks, and now look where they are. Still, I don’t see them coming into Seattle and not running the ball right down the Seahawks throats. Ryan Grant should have his first big fantasy day of the year, and that will lead the Packers to a victory over their former coach.
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): Lets see, the Patriots don’t run the ball real well right now and their passing game doesn’t flourish either. They capitalized on a lot of 49er mistakes in Week 5, but I doubt the Chargers will be so kind on Sunday Night. I’m willing to bet that LaDainian Tomlinson actually has a decent day on the ground, and Phillip Rivers continues to be his accurate self. The Patriots at +5.5 seem like a great bet, but my feeling has me taking the Chargers to win by a touchdown. Come on SD, this is your chance, get those Patriots while you can.
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.
NFL Free Picks: Week 5
After a .500 Week 4, I am still in the green headed into the nitty gritty portion of the season. That’s right, bankrolls are made during the Week 5 – Week 10 section of the season. The lucky ones that think their brilliance has built them a huge lead begin to struggle while the wily old veterans do their best work. Which one will it be for me? Well, we shall see. 14 big games to choose from, take em all or take the best value, here are my Week 5 picks.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens won’t be able to throw. They still aren’t able to pass, as they just don’t take enough chances, and they went into overtime with a very physical Steeler team in Pittsburgh on Monday Night. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.
Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: This game has stayed at (-9) on BetJamaica, and with that value I have to take the Hawks. Seattle doesn’t play their best football on the road, no doubt about that, but after struggling to start the season, the Hawks don’t have time to play crappy road ball. I like the Giants to win this one, but New York hasn’t proven to be a good value as a big favorite. Their style of football equals a lot of close games, and I expect this one to be around a touchdown. At -7, it’s more of a toss up, but I’d still take the Hawks there.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): Thin this one is close. The Eagles are, in my opinion, one of the best teams in all the land, but the Redskins are no slouch. I still see a bit of a letdown from the young guys on Washington’s squad after a big win in Dallas. Philadelphia will likely get Brian Westbrook back this week, and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell- I like the kid, but he’s not ready to be the reason Washington beats Philly.
San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. San Diego gets a couple guys back on their starting defense this week, and they’ll be solid against Miami’s run. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.
Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: I’m not ready to fully buy into Chicago just yet, but I’ll take them at just over a field goal against the Lions. Things have to be looking up for the Lions now that their doink of a GM is out of town, but that won’t instantly give them field credit. The Bears should be able to run all over the Lions, and if the Bears are running freely they are in for an auto-win. I like Chicago here, as they are too physical and too defensive for these little lion cubs.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): I like the Packers in this one. It’s possible, that after a really good start, the Packers got overrated. I understand that, and I even agree with it. However, they are now 2-2 and with the Falcons coming to Lambeau I don’t see they faltering to 2-3. A home game against a low-end Falcons team is just what the Packer ordered. Green Bay’s rushing attack will be better, and a lot will go into stopping Mike Turner and Jerious Norwood. I don’t think Matt Ryan beats the Packers – I’ll take them at -7.
**** – I found out this Thursday morning that Aaron Rodgers is very unlikely to play in this weeks game. I had believed that he would definitely suit up for this one. While that doesn’t ruin Green Bay’s chances, it certainly hinders them. I have to stick with this pick, but based on this knowledge I wouldn’t take Green Bay at anything lower than -3, which you might be able to get.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here. The Colts as a field goal favorite always looks pretty good, and while I’m a huge Texan guy I just don’t see them as a field goal underdog to Indy as good value. Peyton, with a week to heal and to get more comfortable with his offensive line, should look a lot better. I like the Colts in Houston.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there. KC is coming off a huge win so a let down is a good chance bet right here. Carolina is at least 10 points better than KC. Carolina is good. KC is bad. The Panthers will be able to run, and like I said before, if they can do that they are a top-notch football team in this league. Take the Panthers, and do it with a smile.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation. I think Denver can score on any defense, even a Buccaneer group that shows strength in all areas. I don’t think Denver will turn the ball over like they did in a flukey loss to Kansas City, and I think that blow up is the beast that has this game at just -3. A field goal is right at my cap zone, so like i said, this one is tough. But pushing me over the edge is Denver’s air attack and their home field advantage. I’ll ride the Broncos.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). I think Arizona, a tough run defense, has the advantage in this match-up because of their ability to put some pressure on the ball and make Buffalo beat them through the air. The Bills have had some nice luck riding their undefeated streak, but that has to end some time, and there is not better place than on the road against a team that got embarrassed last week as Brett and the Jets put up nearly 50 points on them. The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.
New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers: I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.
Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: I think Palmer will play. I hate the Bengals, but the Cowboys aren’t a 17.5 point favorite with any value. They allow too many big plays through the air, and with two dynamic receivers in Cinci, ready to attack a big stage in Dallas, I like the underdogs to cover here. Remember, even if Dallas wins this one by a couple touchdowns the Bengals cover. I like that chance.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): I promised myself I wouldn’t be taking the Ravens or the Steelers after watching them crash into each other play after play on Monday NIght. It’s a short week for the Steelers, just like the Ravens, and they are headed into a tough physical match-up for the second week in a row. I think Garrard will be better through the air in this one, and I don’t think Pittsburgh will be able to take advantage of a down year on the front line for the Jaguars. This should be a higher scoring game than many expect, but the Jags by a touchdown or two wouldn’t surprise me.
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Vikings are better than the Saints – they get Bryant McKinnie back after a four game suspension – they will be able to run circles around New Orleans – Gus should be okay, but even if he isn’t, I still like Tarvaris Jackson to win this game on the road. Anything else? Well, New Orleans will be passing the ball a lot, and while that gives them a chance, it also leaves a lot up for grabs. Expect the Vikings to grab some of those ups and take this one easily.
Ask Papa Weimer: Week 3
Questions and Answers – let the evil genius do his dirty work!!!
Billiam from Southy writes, “Do you really think the Patriots have a chance to win the Super Bowl without Tom in attendance? I just can’t see the Colts doing much without Peyton, the Cowboys doing anything without Romo, and even the Steelers doing work against Pittsburgh – how can the Pats still have a chance?”
Well Billiam (Bill and Williams meshing in one is pure brilliance), I have a feeling Pats do indeed have a chance, and there is one reason why – Bill Belichick. The real Evil Genius has his work cut out for him, no doubt about that, but he can still game plan for anything, this is just considered an extreme challenge. I couldn’t think about a tougher way to win a Super Bowl, or a more awkward pre-season to lose your league MVP – but yes, I still like the Pats chances just about as much as anyone else in the AFC. It’s funny, there were a few seconds there where Cassel looked like he was getting cut, Gutierrez was easily outplaying him, and Matt was really struggling. When you add that to the fact that Cassel looked terrible in his only action last year, it seemed his time in New England was just about over. Then Matt Gutie was cut, Tom was hurt, and here Matt is, the team’s success unpredictably in his hands. I love it. Not as many points- not as many chances on the field -but I still like the Pats to win 11 or 12 and be a tough out in the playoffs.
Douglas from the O asks, “Do you think Jonathan Stewart has officially become the #1 guy in Carolina? I may be a little biased, having taken some classes with Jon last season, but he looks like the better runner and it seems like Carolina is going to him with the game on the line. Can I start him this week?”
You may be biased, but you hit this one right in the O. Except I wouldn’t start him this week, not against Minnesota. I also wouldn’t say he is the “official #1” – in fact, he’s the “official #2” – but very similar to Maurice Jones Drew the last couple years in Jacksonville, the #2 is a better option that the #1 and it seems like hardheadedness and veteran favortism are the only reasons the “backups” aren’t getting more looks. I can see why both Fred Taylor and DeAngelo are starting, don’t get me wrong, but I also see a lot of value and some dynamic ability from these back-ups. Hold on to your former classmate, I think his time will come, and he’ll be one hell of a start.
Rollie from Anchorage says, “How do you like you some Steve Smith this weekend? Would you start him over Eddie Royal and Dwayne Bowe?”
Rollie, you bet. I love me some Steve Smith, and while Eddie Royal looks like a great option, and Bowe doesn’t look like a bad ride either, Steve is probably pretty amped to help his team considering they went 2-0 without him, and he’s the best player in this bunch. As much as anyone, (besides maybe my nephew), I like Eddie Royal – but Steve Smith is what Royal can only hope to become. He’s a less polished version of Smith right now, and while he does play against New Orleans, it’s not like Minnesota’s secondary is solid either. Bowe goes up against the Falcons, a secondary that is also poor, but he has Tyler Thigpen throwing him the ball – could be decent for Dwayne, but he doesn’t have Jake Delhomme or Jay Cutler throwing him the ball, right? Go with Steve Rollie!
NFL Free Picks: Pre-Season Week 3
So, there’s some more thought that goes into Week 3 pre-season football. At first I’m doing my best to hunt for camp competitions and general rules for pre-season action, but now, aside from a couple instances, my pre-season picks are based on where I’d go during the regular season. With starters playing an entire half, and possibly into the 3rd quarter, I have to expect the best teams to pull out of hte first half with an early lead. I’m not ignoring 2nd teamers, but they are getting less consideration this week. Here’s my Top 5 bets this week.
Thursday
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-3): Here’s the deal; the 49ers put up loads of points last time out and they just aren’t that good offensively. I’m sure Frank Gore will get minimal action and he is the teams best player. J.T. O’Sullivan is starting again for the 49ers and he is expected to play into the 3rd quarter and basically has the starting job on lockdown. He’s been decent as a fighter but has never been “the guy” before now, so I’m not sure how he’ll handle it. Also, the 49ers are terrible. The Bears defense can put up points, and with Kyle Orton playing most of the game, Chicago’s mistakes won’t be there as much. I’m not a huge fan of Orton, but he does do enough to win football games or at least not lose them. Devin Hester is ready to go off in this game, and I can’t wait to see Matt Forte make some good plays for the Bears. In the 2nd half, I like Chicago as well. Say what you want about Rex Grossman, but he’s probably better than anything the 49ers have right now. He’ll be trying to prove himself late, and thus the Bears get the nod on Thursday.
Friday
Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: The Titans are obviously the much better team here, and their biggest strength will stall the Falcons best offensive weapon, Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Tennessee hasn’t gotten on track in the air yet, but Vince Young and Kerry Collins are solid options as 1 and 2 quarterbacks in this league, so I expect them to be on target in this contest. I like the receiver battle for playing time in Tennessee and the Titans are always full of young defensive weapons. Matt Ryan is starting and playing in this game into the 2nd half, and that’s probably not a good thing for Atlanta. He’s a good young leader and looks to be a fine prospect, but the last defensive line I want to go up against is one where Javon Kearse is the worst player. Yikes. I like Tennesse’s 1st and 2nd team more than either of Atlanta’s, and the Titans offense should come out with a little umph.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: The Eagles will win this game for a couple reasons. It’s amazing but even Andy Reid cares more about winning in the pre-season than Bill Belichick. Tom Brady is unlikely to play, and with so many aging vets on the squad, so are many other key players. The Eagles have an improved defense and you can bet that Asante Samuel is excited to prove himself against his old club. Donovan McNabb was a little off-target in last week’s pre-season match-up, so expect his on and off pre-season to go up this week. I like the foursome of running backs in Philly, and after Kevin Curtis it still looks like 5 Eagle receivers are competing for playing time. I would definitely take the Pats during the pre-season, but their exhibition season history has me once again going against them. Back to the well one time too many? We’ll see.
Saturday
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): I have to like the Bucs to win this one. They are a team that does the little things right, takes nothing for granted, and generally plays mistake free football. Jeff Garcia hasn’t even played yet and this team is still 2-0 in the pre-season with some impressive play. Even if Jeff stays out for one more game, I like Brian Griese, Luke McCown, Chirs Simms, and rookie Josh Johnson as pre-season hurlers. The Bucs also have a pretty talented back-field duo in Earnest Graham and Michael Bennett – either will do a fine job on Saturday. Antonio Bryant is playing well, as he’s trying to get back in the swing of game speed, and Ike Hilliard, Maurice Stovall, and Warrick Dunn are all becoming threats as receivers. I like the Jags, and they are surely a tough squad, but I don’t expect their offensive stars to play much more than a quarter and defensively they just aren’t as tough in the pre-season.
New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Boy oh boy the Bengals have looked bad. And it’s not just their running game, Carson Palmer has been inconsistent and timid in the pocket. I know I love the big red head and have always thought that his upside exudes that of the best quarterbacks in the league, but right now he looks lost. Chad is out for this game, so is TJ Houshmandzadeh, and with his two favorite targets out of the game I’m not sure Carson will even play that long. On the other hand, Drew Brees is on fire. He’s the most accurate quarterback in the league right now, and he’s a pre-season monster. Reggie Bush is trying to find himself, but I really like the receiver battle in New Orleans. Robert Meachem, David Patten, Lance Moore – these are all guys trying to grab the #2 job away from Devery Henderson, and honestly, I love it. I think the Saints will dominate this game against a confused Bengals club.