Tag Archives: NFL Week 9 Against the Spread

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Pick: Last time out the Bengals beat the Ravens in Baltimore, pulling a pretty nice upset both against the spread and straight up. The Bengals have had a week off to relax and ponder how easy it was beating up on the Bears. Palmer tossed 4 touchdown passes and Cedric Benson ran wild against his former team as Cincinnati steamrolled the Bears. The Ravens aren’t coming off a bye, but they are coming off a 30-7 win over the previously undefeated Denver Broncos last week. In that game they seemingly got their pass defense in a good place.

The Ravens have struggled against teams that can really throw it, giving up 436 yards to Phillip Rivers in a close win over the Chargers, and 3 touchdown passes by Brett Favre in a close loss to Minnesota. Carson Palmer also diced them up for 270+ yards last time out.But like I said, they looked good against the pass last week.

But here’s the deal, and it’s a situation I take very much to heart when picking games over the second half of any given NFL season; Unless there is some sort of extreme mismatch between two good football teams, the chances of a split are pretty good.

I think these two teams are very similar. The Ravens are probably even a little bit better. This game means a lot to the Ravens, sitting at 4-3 and 3rd place in the AFC North, behind the Bengals and Steelers. The Bengals aren’t going to lay down, but I think a lot of the Ravens, and a split with the Bengals looks like a good bet to me.

Washington Redskins vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10): Here’s the deal, and I want to be very clear on this, I wouldn’t bet much on this game, and I won’t, if I do at all. Why you might ask? Anyone can see that the Redskins are struggling mightily with more things than anyone can count.

Offensively they just can’t score points, and defensively they give up big plays and despite playing pretty stout during stretches, they are consistently put in a bad place by their bad offense. Then there’s the coaching troubles, the questions in the organization, and how just recently the owner of the team publicly discussed his disappointment with the players, saying that they have “let everybody down” and I’m sure even more will come out about team-dysfunctional before the game kicks off in Atlanta – but this is a trap game for the Falcons if I’ve ever seen one, and defensively the Redskins have the talent to shut down the run and make some big plays if the Falcons aren’t focused.

The Falcons just came off a game against the Saints on Monday Night where they played very well against one of the league’s best teams, and if they walked away from that game feeling like they can play and compete against the best, a moral victory of sorts, then they might be in for a battle against the Redskins. A week off for Washington might have been enough to get their offense on the right page with the new play-caller.

Listen, I know what I see, and I see a beat and battered Redskins team flying into Atlanta this Sunday. But this one worries me a bit, just an eerie feeling I guess, one that will keep my risking just a little if any. With my Falcons pick, I’m warning you.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pick: First off, I don’t think the Jaguars have showed me enough consistency to be favored by 6.5 points against anybody in the league, even the Chiefs. A Chiefs team coming off a bye week. A Chiefs team looking for their first real win of the season (Can Washington really count?). A Chiefs team that just got rid of the guy that put himself before the team.

With Jamal Charles getting more touches, the Chiefs have more chances to hit the big play. With Matt Cassel getting more and more practice time with Todd Haley, this offense should get better and better as the season goes forward. I’m not sure what the addition of Chris Chambers will do for this team, but right off hand Chris can come in and make a difference as a guy that blocks well, and plays the right way.

I’ve liked the Jaguars for a long time, but they are a predictable team that just got more predictable when Jack Del Rio limited his quarterback’s audibles, telling him not to check out of MJD runs. (Don’t get me wrong, I would likely tell David Garrard the same thing, I just wouldn’t tell the media.) As if the Chiefs weren’t going to stack the box already.  The Jaguars don’t look like a well-coached team, and they certainly lack physicality outside of MJD.

This game has already moved to 7 at Bodog, and it could make that jump in a lot of books by the end of the week. So far, 62% of the bets like Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been favored twice this season, they’ve lost both ATS. This should be an ugly and close game, so the points look good enough to me.