Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free ATS Pick This game’s a tough call, and I don’t know if I’m going to be able to fully justify my Dolphins pick, but I just get the feeling that this is the type of game the Jaguars love to lose. It’s the type of team they are going to come out and abandon the run against, putting all the pressure on David Garrard when they have one of the most dynamic players in the NFL in the backfield. Jack Del Rio and his staff can sure find ways to discourage a guy. They lost me at hello.

The Dolphins are a run first, second, and third team, but I know they’ll find plenty of room on play action to get a couple big plays on the shaky Jaguars secondary. Chad Henne has been spreading the ball around well since he took the job, but more importantly, the Dolphins seem completely fine with giving the ball to Ricky Williams 25 times a game since Ronnie Brown got hurt. It’s not as interesting as the Wildcat, but it’s very close to being just as effective. Ricky’s still got it folks, believe that.

The Dolphins have gotten the best of heavy run teams all season long, beating the Jets twice, the Panthers, Bucs, are also coming off a last second win over the Patriots last week – not as if that has anything to do with dominating run-first teams, but I thought it sounded nice, so I threw it in there. I can do that.

Jacksonville has struggled against tough run defenses, getting smacked around by the 49ers, and Titans most recently. They might have won 4 of their last 5, but they didn’t win one of those games by more than 5 points, and despite a 7-5 record, average 4 points less than they give up. Give me the fins!

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars