Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+3) Free NCAA Pick: This game is bound to be a shoot out, a real passing attack, the clock will probably stop every other play – and thus points will be scored, no doubt about it. Both teams pretty much rely solely on the passing game. While Bowling Green’s quarterbacks have been more efficient, the Redhawks are right up there in passing yards as well. To win this one, they’ll have to cut down on the turnovers.

Miami has played a lot better football over the past three weeks while Bowling Green has struggled a bit going 1-1 over their last couple games. The Falcons beat the Buffalo last week, but it wasn’t smooth sailing. The Falcons needed 14 unanswered fourth quarter points to beat the Bulls by a point. Watching that game didn’t scream Bowling Green to me. They were outplayed, out-rushed, out-gained and it took a touchdown pass with seconds on the clock to get a win. They shouldn’t have won that game.

That being said, it’s not as if Miami is more consistent. They’ve struggled much of the season, they’ve only won a single game all season long, so it makes sense that most people see them doing what they’ve done all year, and losing another football game. But that’s not always how it works.

Miami-Ohio has beaten Bowling Green each of the last 3 seasons, and 9 out of the last 10 times these two teams have met. They are 8-2 ATS in those 10 games, and each of the last 3 seasons they have beaten the Falcons as an underdog. History doesn’t mean much, but it means something.